Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in Chile Reunión profesores Estadounidenses...
Transcript of Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in Chile Reunión profesores Estadounidenses...
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Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in Chile
Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in Chile
Reunión profesores Estadounidenses FulbrightValparaiso, Chile
15 setiembre 2011
Ed MaurerCivil Engineering Department
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Global Climate is ChangingGlobal Climate is Changing
• Temperatures are increasing globally
• Most recent warming attributed to human-driven GHG emissions
• Some impacts already evident and attributable to warming
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
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Observed Changes: 1970-2004Observed Changes: 1970-2004• High confidence
changes in:– rainfall intensity– extreme
temperatures– regional drought– glacier melt– early snowmelt– lake warming
• Changes are consistent with observed warming, if not attributable
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability -- Summary for Policymakers.
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Projections of Global ChangeProjections of Global Change
• Range of ‘likely warming’ by end of 21st century variable
• By mid-21st century most differences smaller
2010
1.8° 3.4° 4.0°2.4° 2.8°
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Which pathway are we on?Which pathway are we on?
• Scenarios trends are averages across all models available for each scenario class.
Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007Global Carbon Project, 2009
• Current emissions are tracking above the most intense IPCC emission scenario
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
n (
GtC
y-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10
A1B
A1FI
A1T
A2
B1
B2
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
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Looking toward the future: end of 21st century
Looking toward the future: end of 21st century
21 modeled changes for A1B emissions
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
Warming is large-scale, certain
Precipitation changes more regional, less confident
Regional changes drive regional impacts
.
Precipitation
Figure 11.12Figure 11.12number of models out of 21 that project increases in precipitationsource: IPCC, 2007
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How do changes in Chile compare to the California
Case?
How do changes in Chile compare to the California
Case?21 modeled changes for A1B
emissions
2080-2099 minus 1980-1999
Warming is large-scale, certain
Precipitation changes more regional, less confident
Regional changes drive regional impacts
.
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Regional ChangesRegional Changes
• Projected changes non-uniform
• Impacts also non-uniform
Median runoff change, 2041-2060 minus 1901-1970
Greater water scarcityMore wildfiresAccelerating invasive speciesTourism, recreation impactsAgricultural vulnerability
Extreme urban heat eventsWorsening air quality episodes
Ocean fishery migrationIncreased severe flooding events
Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
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Estimating regional impactsEstimating regional impacts
1. GHG Emissions Scenario
Adapted from Cayan and Knowles, SCRIPPS/USGS, 2003
2. Global Climate Model4. Land surface
(Hydrology) Model
3. “Downscaling”
5. Operations/impac
ts Models
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Availability of GCM SimulationsAvailability of GCM Simulations
20th century through 2100 and beyond >20 GCMs Multiple Future Emissions Scenarios
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Need for DownscalingNeed for Downscaling
• Dynamic– Better representation of terrain
captures local processes and feedbacks
– Computationally expensive– Still contain biases
• Statistical– Assumes stationary transfer function
Image: Canadian Climate Change Scenarios Network Images: IPCC
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Downscaling
Downscaling for Impacts ModelsDownscaling for Impacts Models
Raw GCM
Output
• Bias correct and spatially downscale GCM output
• Run hydrology model with projected climateP
reci
p,
Tem
p
Flow, Snow, etc.
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Multi-Model Ensemble Projections for Feather River
Multi-Model Ensemble Projections for Feather River
•Increase Dec-Feb Flows+77% for A2+55% for B1
•Decrease May-Jul-30% for A2-21% for B1
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Impact Probabilities for PlanningImpact Probabilities for Planning
Sn
ow
wa
ter
eq
uiv
ale
nt
on
Ap
ril
1,
mm
Point at:120ºW, 38ºN
2/3 chance that loss will be at least 40% by mid century, 70% by end of century
• Combine many future scenarios, models, since we don’t know which path we’ll follow (22 futures here)
• Choose appropriate level of risk
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Translating this approach to ChileTranslating this approach to Chile
Four key basins
Ecologically and economically important
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• Series diarias• Se rellenan de series incompletas de P y Q• Análisis (1) estacional, (2) periodo pluvial y nival, (3) anual• Variables hidroclimatológicas e índices representativos• Tendencias (Mann-Kendall y Regresión Lineal)
Mataquito Basin
Tmed, Tmax, Tmin, P
Qdía
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Escenarios de Cambio Climático específicos cuenca Mataquito
Para un solo escenario (A1b) pero ahora estudiando un poco cambios en variabilidad
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Snow Cover and Extreme Events
Snow Cover and Extreme Events
2002 2008
P 2 días previos (mm) 103.6 83.9
Caudal Máximo (m3/s) 931 2690
Tmax promedio (°C) 13,0 17,4
Cota estimada línea de nieve (m) 1700 2200
* A partir de P’s y T’s en Curicó, adoptando una tasa de lapso de 9 °C/Km
• Two events: 23 may 200827 may 2002
2002 2008
2008, with lower total rain produced greater peak stream flow.
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Capturing Uncertainties in an Ensemble - Temperature
Capturing Uncertainties in an Ensemble - Temperature
• Internal variability (forecast) important first few years• Model Uncertainty dominates through mid-21st century• Uncertain emissions pathway most important after that
Hawkins & Sutton, BAMS, 2009
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Does this capture the range of uncertainties?
Does this capture the range of uncertainties?
• Perturbed physics experiments and theoretical feedback analyses extend tail to right
• Uncertainty in emissions is on same order if planning horizon includes end of 21st century or beyond
Roe and Baker, 2007
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Caudales(mm/año)
Temperatura Media Anual(Celsius)
Precipitaciones(mm/año)