Asian climate change workshop-introduction

Julian HuntTrinity College CambridgeUniversity College London

TU Delft .

Themes –Asian and global

• Science ---CC phenomena;--- Modelling ;Concepts

• Impacts/hazards • Causes – emissions (ghg; pollutants) - land surface ;• Policies –Integrated approaches?• Research and future collaboration

Note IPCC-WMOCurve presented at International meetings.And to policy makers .

Not widely known By politicians And policy makers-peoplelive on land!

Global Climate Data Trends 2011UKMet Office

Global, Snow and Ice (UK Met Office)

Modelling of ice edge /extent is not reliable.Effects of varying ice edge on ocean winds and currents could be significant (studies at UCL)

SCHEMATIC OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROCESSES-note geographic var’n

Less snow/ice -> more volcanoes?

More convection in moister atmosphere

(i) Buoyancy + upslope (Ls) upslope turn right

(ii) Triggers convective upwind flow

(Note Lu Luc + Ls ; > 3*103 km)

Lu as N , h ; H (Climate; Aerosol; QBO?)

Ls as H (Geology)

U

Nh

ucL km310*2

uusual

us

Usual ->Unusual

_UPSLOPE

Deeper convection?

1. Regimes

CASSOU & GULYARDI 2007

CLIMATE PATTERNS CHANGE WITH GLOBAL WARMING

EXTENDED STAGNANT AIR

Asymmetric dishpan experiment-what does el nino do to global circulations?

ASU (HpPeng)

Note + 2deg since 1950 –in data for 2010 .

Likely to exceed 4deg by 2100—cf Hansen warning (historic)

DRAG OF URBAN AREA –ALSO TURNS WIND

-WEAK BUOYANCY FORCES BELOW INVERSION LAYER.

NOTE DOWNWIND WAKE SCALE LR-EXTENDS OVER 10LR – (J.Chan HK)

500KM DOWNWIND OF MEGACITIES (J CHAN ..) ; (RIGHT DEFLN IF STRONG CONVECTION OVER CITY AND LOW WIND)

STERN

GLOBAL

REVIEW

_NOT VALID AFTER COP15?

NEW IDEAS

FOR 2010----?

2000 2100 Time

NEDE

)(GeqE

DRI

)(LADRI

IDR IHPG

GIHP

)(NEDGLOBAL

ILPG

GILP

)( LADRI

SDE Normal Econ Dev.

Sustainable development (.)'

RANGES OF LIKELY EMISSIONS FOR DIFFERENT TYPES OF COUNTRY

Normal Economic Development or with sustainable development policies

ILPG – Industrialized low pop. Growth (EU; Japan)

IHPG – Industrialized High pop. Growth (USA)

DRI – Developing- rapid industrialization- limited pop. Growth (China)

DRI(LA) – DRI plus large agricultural sector – high pop. Growth (India)

-> DIFFERENT LEGISLATION FOR EACH REGION/COUNTRY- AFTER CANCUN.

Fusion Research Hybrid Fusion-Fission?

Hybrid FF

Efficient use of uranium/ thorium resources

- no long term radioactive waste (100 yrs)?

China – pilot project 2020?

No plans for Europe?

TOKAMAK Fusion Device

OR MORE WIND ENERGY?

Policy Issues -Note International trend for national/regional policies on emissions/ conservation

-UNFCC/IPCC role is now monitoring , comparing, and predicting

-Need for International cooperation (including UN ) +ASIAN CLIMATE NETWORK?

*science, (monitoring ;modelling tropical/polar /terrestial effects on cc)

• technology-Clean Energy , water; deforestation; bioreactors

• Finance-Clean Development Mechanism; clean /green trading /pricing

• Governance- national/(regional?)climate legislation

• Cultural , Communications-eg water recycling , waste energy; low energy food; life styles.

SUSTAINABILITY THROUGH INTEGRATION BY GOVERNMENTS, COMMUNITIES, INDIVIDUALS IN DIFFERENT GLOBAL REGIONS

OF ENVIRONMENTAL , ENERGY, TECHNOLOGICAL , AND SOCIAL, SECURITY POLICIES ?,

Note advantages – economy (eg adaptation (flooding)and mitigation (clean energy) - public understanding/acceptance (with leadership)

Note problems – short term costs versus long term advantages.

(reF JH . Proc Inst Civ Engrs uk 2009)