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Transcript of College delft
New developments in transition studies
beyond visions and innovation
Derk LoorbachDelft, 23-05-2011
Derk LoorbachDelft, 23-05-2011
Transitions
Transition Governance
Transitionizing consumption
Social-ecological systems
New agenda
• Complex, long-term and uncertain– no quick fixes or only technological solutions
• Embedded in societal structures– optimization through existing solutions insufficient
• Many different actors involved– contested and ‘ill-structured’
• Difficult to ‘manage’– Examples: energy, mobility, agriculture, education, health care, water
management, housing etc.
Unsustainability lock-in requires transitions
Persistent problems of sustainability
Transitions
fundamental change of structure, culture and fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in a societal (sub)systempractices in a societal (sub)system
– culture:culture: collective set of values, norms, collective set of values, norms, perspectives (shared perspectives (shared orientation), paradigms orientation), paradigms
– structure:structure: physical infrastructure, economic physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure, infrastructure, institutions, rules, regulations, collective institutions, rules, regulations, collective routinesroutines
– practices:practices: behaviour, operation, implementationbehaviour, operation, implementation
Shared discourse and language for multi-actor Shared discourse and language for multi-actor learning and innovation processeslearning and innovation processes
Consumption: a persistent problem?
• Unsustainable consumption practices are problematic
• Consumption creates demand, demand structures consumption
• Consumption practices occur at different levels (individuals, groups, societies)
• ‘unsustainable consumption’ is ill-structured: what is the problem?
transition in consumption systems?
Transition levelsMacro-level: landscapeautonomous trends, paradigms, slow changes
Meso-level: regimeDominant structure, culture and practices
Micro-level: niches innovative ideas, projects, technologies, niche actorsBased on Geels and Kemp, 2001
Multiple Phases
Predevelopment
Stabilization
time
Societal development
Acceleration
Take-off
From: Rotmans et al, 2000
Transition phases
Sustainable society?
health care
energywaste
waterconstruction
mobility finance
predevelopment
take-off
acceleration
stabilisation
Based on Rotmans et al, 2001
Where is consumption?
• Transition research so far predominantly focuses on supply side and sectors
• Actors (let alone consumers) are often not explicitly addressed
• However, transitions presuppose major shifts in (consumer) practices
are we seeing a pattern shift towards acceleration in consumer behavior?
Transition governance principles (predev.)
• long-term long-term thinking as the basis for short term policythinking as the basis for short term policy
• thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), thinking in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor), different actors (multi-actor), different levels (multi-different levels (multi-level)level)
• learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-learning as an important aim for policy (‘learning-by-doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)doing’ and ‘doing-by-learning’)
• orient governance towards system innovation orient governance towards system innovation besides system improvementbesides system improvement
• keeping options open, exploring multiple pathwayskeeping options open, exploring multiple pathways
• selective participation focusing on frontrunnersselective participation focusing on frontrunners
Governance framework
Strategic(culture, worldviews, norms and values)
Tactical(institutions, networks, structures)
Operational(practices, innovations,niches)
Influencing learning
and reflection(transition
monitoring)
Influencing changes in structures(transition-
network and –agenda)
Influencing changes in culture and discourse
(transitionarena)
Influencing innovation dynamics
(transitionexperiments)
society
Transition arenaRegular policy arena
- Short term- Peloton - Incremental change- Problem- and goal oriented
- Long term- Frontrunners - System-innovation- Problem- and goal searching
Transition arenas
Dutch Energytransition
• Initiated by Ministry of Economic Affairs– Grown from 5 to over 1000 involved actors between 2001
and 2010
• Long-term vision: a clean, affordable and safe energy-suppply
• 7 transition platforms– Built environment, mobility, green electricity, green
resources, new gas, chain efficiency and greenhouse as energy source
• Innovation agenda with budget of over 400 MEuro– Multiple pathways (25+) and hundereds of experiments
Structure
Impact?
• Agenda adopted by regime board– Transition platform established by ministries
• Experiments started– And concrete regulations influenced
• Narrative/discourse spreading– Accelerated by financial crisis
• Energy transition cancelled at Ministry level– But taken over at regional/business/community
level
Recent experiences
• Transition governance increasingly applied regionally/in urban context
• Citizens/consumers more explicitly part of the problem/challenge
• So far however no attempts to create large scale behavioral change with transition approach
focus primarily on envisioning, agenda-building and experimenting
Urban Transition ManagementRotterdam
• Increasing speed, coherence, ambition and engagement of urban innovation processes
• ‘Transitionizing’ Existing Policies– Use of the concept of transitions to conceptualize,
analyze and identify on-going changes towards sustainability in different domains
– Stimulation of envisioning and goal formulation on the long-term
– (re)structuring transition scenario’s and pathways– Up-scaling and initiating projects and experiments– Reflection and evaluation of progress of transitions
and (required) changes in governance
CityPorts area
• CityPorts area redevelopment as transition challenge– Long-term and highly complex and uncertain– Very high sustainability ambition– Need for institutional and behavioral change– Experimental (policy) approach– Public-private challenge
Trying to guide and accelerate organic systemic changes
5 strategies1. Re-inventing delta technology
2. Volume & Value
3. Crossing borders
4. Floating gentrification
5. Sustainable mobility
Long term: perspective 2040
Mid term: course 2025
Short term: action 2015
CityPorts
One of the images: Floating City
(Design: www.deltasync.nl)
…the transition experiment
Societal resilience and transition
• Context: Pact op Zuid– 1 billion Euro investment in battling social problems – Reframing program as transition program
• Transition arena experiment in deprived neighbourhood (wijkarena)– Local citizens, entrepreneurs, organisations
• Close cooperation policy-science in transition team– ‘transitionizing’ policy through coproduction
• Now up-scaling in ‘Veerkracht’ (Resilience)
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Core transitional challenge
• Community empowerment– Developing self-organisational capacity– Paradigm shift towards self-awareness– Articulating community needs
• Policy transition– Participation in societal process– Toward integrative cooperation– Developing process governance capacity
Tijd
Pact op Zuid
City harbors Program-
directors
Self-organisation: Supply driven, Integral,
Process oriented Innovative,/sustainable
Co-production
Fragmented Competition Individualism Distrust Short-term
GGW
Gideon
Policy new stylenwe stijl
City marines
SONS Bureau frontline
Field-academy
Activation Human centered concrete solutions
Empowering Experimenting Learning
Mono-actorGroup
portrets
Participation visions
Norm op Zuid
Roffa 5314
Artroute
Social and policy transition
Rotterdam sustainability transition
• Connected PortCity: flows of people, energy, resources, finances, knowledge reconnect city and port in a symbiotic way– Port transition: green chemistry, bio and
renewable energyport, cradle-to-cradle industry, waterconstruction
– City transition: toward a biotic, self-sustaining and socially resilient and diverse city
– Cityports area as the ‘heart’
InContext (FP7)
• Application of transition approach in local communities focusing on sustainable behavior
• Collective ‘framing’ of outer context and socio-technical structures that condition behavior
• Specific and explicit attention to individual ‘inner contexts’ (e.g. perspectives, values) and the differences
Is it possible to ‘transitionize’ behavior/consumption?
Behavioral/consumption transition?
• Dominant behavioral patterns, structures and culture in a neighborhood (inner and outer)?
• Identifying persistent problems locally, regionally and internationally
• Historical origins, external pressures/changes and alternative practices/niches?
• Shift towards sustainable behavioral patterns, culture and structures (individual and collective)
• Insight into how individuals matter
... is a co-creation tool for sustainable behaviour by local communities and
builds upon the theoretical literature and insights of transition management,
backcasting and literature on inner/outer contexts of behaviour and learning.
... differs from other ‘traditional’ transition arenas by its integration of insights
from backcasting and internal context of human behaviour as well as by its
focus on the individual level.
.. should result into processes of reflection on individual and group level
allowing for new strategies to emerge on how individual/groups needs are
met and also into experiments with innovative practices as alternatives to
established ones
35
The community arena
36
The community arenaKey activities Key output
0. Pre-preparation A. Case orientation B. Transition team formation
A. Initial case description for each pilotB. Transition team
1. Preparation & Exploration
A. Process designB. System analysis C. Actor analysis (long-list and shortlist of relevant actors) + interviews
A. Community Arena process planB. Reframed challengeC. Actor identification + insight inner context behaviour
2. Problem structuring & Envisioning
A. Transition Arena formationB. Problem structuring process + meeting
C. Selection of key priorities D. Participatory vision process + meeting
A. Frontrunner networkB. Individual and shared problem perceptionsC. Guiding sustainability principles D. Individual and shared visions
3. Backcasting, Agenda Building & Target Setting
A. Backcasting meeting and interviewsB. Formulation agenda and specific actionsC. Defining transition paths + meeting
A. Backcasting analysisB. Community action agendaC. Transition paths
4. Experimenting & Implementing
A. Dissemination of arena, visions and agenda B. Coalition forming & broadening the networkC. Conduct transition experiments
A. Embedded resultsB. Change agents networkC. Experiment portfolio
5. Monitoring & Evaluation
A. Monitoring and evaluation of method and content (process) + meetingB. Monitoring and evaluation of individual level (inner context) + meeting and interviews
A. Adaptation methodological framework (during process), and lessons learned for local and EU-level governanceB. Insight in drivers and barriers for sustainable behaviour
Hypotheses
• Build on present sustainable behavioral niches• Explicit attention to structures will raise
awareness and provide action perspective• Collective reflection might stimulate collective
action (e.g. collective purchasing, local food production, sustainable mobility)
• Inclusion of different worldviews and lifestyles might help to ‘normalize’ sustainable behavior in neighborhoods
Impact, sustainability, possibility, desirability,…?
TM: evolving theory and practice
Monitoring,
evaluating and
adapting
Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas
Problem structuring, envisioning and
organizing transition-arenas
Mobilizing actors and transition-
experiments
TM 1.0Creating space and
convergenceArenas,
experimentsDiscourse and
culture
Monitoring,
evaluating and
adapting
Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition-agendas
Problem structuring, envisioning and
organizing transition-arenas
Mobilizing actors and transition-
experiments
TM 2.0Focus on
breakthroughsInstitutions for
transitionUpscaling and
structural change
Transition governance principles (acceleration)
• Coordination accelerating transition dynamics
• Guiding build-up towards sustainability• ‘Controlled’ break-down• Safe-guarding diversity and flexibility• Dealing wit/anticipating resistance and
barriers• Leading role for business, citizens, networks• Activistic idealism and strategic gaming
TM 2.011
From• Frontrunners
• Searching/learning/experi-menting
• Predevelopment• Creating space• Deepening/broadening• Developing discours/language• Initiating/starting-up/building-
up• Knowledge development
To• First followers (of the
mainstream)• Institutionalisation
• Take-off/acceleration• Making use of space• Scaling-up/structural change• Action oriented• Embedding/breaking-down
• Diffusion
TM 2.011
From To
• Transitionanalysis• Arenas• Visions• Scenarios • Agendas/pathways
• Experiments • Monitoring/
evaluation
• Tippingpoint-/phase-analysis• Transitioncoalitions• Public/political debate• Pathway-analyses• Development plans/business
cases/legal innovation• Destabilising
actions/interventions• Quantitative t-mon/reflexive
pattern monitoring
What is TM?
• Framing• Learning for• Experimenting for• Mobilising • Empowering• Institutionalising
Thank you for your attention
For more information and publications:loorbach@fsw.eur.nlwww.drift.eur.nlwww.ksinetwork.orgwww.twitter.com/drk75