Are women in Europe still having babies?

Marion Burkimsher

University of Lausanne, Switzerland

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Questions we will explore

• Does the Total Fertility Rate say how many children women are

having?

• Which European country had the lowest TFR in recent years and

when?

• If fertility is below replacement level for decades, will the

population shrink?

• What has been the big change in fertility behaviour in recent

years?

• What statistics are needed to make accurate fertility forecasts?

‘Lowest-low’ fertility seen in many countries

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) < 1.3 children per woman

Bulgaria 1.12 in 1997

Czech Republic 1.14 in 1999

Russia 1.16 in 1999

Slovakia 1.19 in 2003

Slovenia 1.20 in 2003

Lithuania 1.24 in 2002

Hungary 1.27 in 2003

Estonia 1.29 in 1998

All these countries are in Eastern Europe

Data from Human Fertility Database

In Western Europe TFRs did not drop quite as low

Austria 1.33 in 2001

Switzerland 1.39 in 2001

Sweden 1.51 in 1999

Netherlands 1.53 in 1996 (had been lower - 1.47 in 1983)

Finland 1.70 in 1998

• Across Europe the year of minimum TFR was ~ 2000

• Since then TFRs have been rising in almost all countries

Recent rises in TFRfrom year of minimum to maximum

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TFR

Austria

Bulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia

Finland

Hungary

Lithuania

N'lands

Russia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Sweden

Switz.

Data source: 14 countries in Human Fertility Database

But Portugal is the exception to prove the rule!

TFR Portugal

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

TFR

Portugal saw a maximum TFR in 2000 and a steady decline after

So did women in some countries have only ~1 child?

The Population Reference Bureau’s definition of TFR is

“The average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the age-specific fertility rates of a given year”

However, it is not quite so simple….

TFR is a period measure and indicates the intensity or popularity of childbearing in a particular year

The number of children a woman actually has depends on her fertility behaviour over her life - the associated measure is completed cohort fertility, CCF

Take Switzerland as an example…

In the 2000 Swiss census, each person was asked how many children they had had.

For women born in 1960 - who were, therefore, aged 40, and so approaching the end of their childbearing years - the mean

number of children they had had was 1.73

But the average TFR for the period 1980-1999 was 1.53!

Why the big difference between 1.53 and 1.73?

Possible reasons for mismatch between Possible reasons for mismatch between

period fertility rates and cohort fertility ratesperiod fertility rates and cohort fertility rates

Data errors:Data errors:

Birth registrationsBirth registrations

Population totals by agePopulation totals by age

““Sampling” errors in the censusSampling” errors in the census

Change in population between years of birth and censusChange in population between years of birth and census

Differential mortalityDifferential mortality

Immigration and emigrationImmigration and emigration

Postponement of childbearingPostponement of childbearing

Proportion of women who are foreign for each age, census 2000

10

15

20

25

30

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50Age (women of reproductive age only)

%

Being born in Switzerland does not give the right to Swiss nationality. Most immigrants arrive in their 20s

Proportion of marriages by nationality

Swiss/Swiss

Swiss man/foreign woman

Swiss woman/foreign man

Foreign/foreign

How does postponement make babies ‘disappear’?

In Switzerland there has been a steady rise in the Mean Age at First Birth (MAB1) of about 1 month per year, which has gone on for the past 40 years!!!

This means that, in effect, in every year from 1970 onwards a month’s worth of babies were ‘postponed’ and were born in the following year

So 1/12th of babies are missing from each year’s TFR measure!

This accounts for the observed difference of ~0.2 babies/woman

Change in mean age at birth of each birth order 1969-2007

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

19691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Year

Age of mother

1st birth 2nd birth 3rd birth 4th birth 5th+ birth

Birth order 1 increase started 1971Birth order 2 increase started 1973Birth order 3 increase started 1980Birth order 4 increase started 1986

Birth order 5+ increase started 1991

Gap between mean age at 1st birth and 4th birth declined from 8 years in 1972 to 4.9 in 1990 and since then has been steady

Increase in MAB1 across Europe 1998-2008

Western Europe

Portugal 26.1 … 27.7 ∆ 1.59

Austria 26.1 … 27.8 ∆ 1.61

Finland 27.4 … 28.2 ∆ 0.72

Sweden 27.8 … 28.8 ∆ 1.00

N’lands 28.7 … 29.1 ∆ 0.37

Switz. 28.2 … 29.7 ∆ 1.47

Eastern Europe

Bulgaria 22.9 … 25.0 ∆ 2.10

Russia 23.1 … 24. 4 ∆ 1.28

Estonia 23.6 … 25.8 ∆ 2.17

Lith. 23.6 … 25.8 ∆ 2.15

Slovakia 23.6 … 26.4 ∆ 2.82

Czech Rep 24.4 … 27.2 ∆ 2.97

Hungary 24.5 … 27.2 ∆ 2.67

Slovenia 25.8 … 28.2 ∆ 2.37

Changes in the fertility curve

Let’s look at the age-specific fertility rates (total births by age of woman divided by the population of women of that age)

Reproductive age range: 15-49

In Switzerland, peak rates for first births were age 22 in 1970 and are now age 30

What other changes have happened?

Evolution of age-specific 1st birth rates over time

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Age of mother at birth of 1st child

Birth rate parity 1

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009

The FR1 is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates, ie. the area under the curve. The TFR is the sum of all birth orders

Changes in fertility rate curves in period 1969-2009Changes in fertility rate curves in period 1969-2009

Peak has become later (tempo change, timing of childbearing)Peak has become later (tempo change, timing of childbearing)

Peak has become lower (change in intensity)Peak has become lower (change in intensity)

Curve has become wider (increase in standard deviation in MAB1)Curve has become wider (increase in standard deviation in MAB1)

Curve has changed from being skewed left to nearly symmetricCurve has changed from being skewed left to nearly symmetric

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Trends in birth order 1 fertility ratesTrends in birth order 1 fertility rates

Comparison of period and cohort fertility curves, birth order 1

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49Age of mother

Fertility rate, birth order 1

1965 cohort 1980 period 1991 period

TFR 1 1965 cohort = 0.79

TFR 1 1980 period = 0.71

TFR 1 1991 period = 0.74

How do period and cohort fertility curves differ?

Differences between period and cohort curves

Births at younger ages are postponed (women do not follow the synthetic TFR of the year in which they are 15)

There is an excess of births at older ages (past the peak) compared to those postponed from younger ages

This growth in older age childbearing (particularly of first births) causes the CCF to be greater than the TFR

Explanation of recent rises in TFRs

Is it declining postponement rates (proposed by Bongaarts & Sobotka)?

My analysis shows it is more complicated….

Trends in TFRs are driven by changes in first birth rates - higher birth orders follow in succession. First birth rates can also be considered as the reflection of the childlessness rate. They are affected by changes in the economy, government policy, ‘norms’

Year-on-year changes to MAB1

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

Austria

Bulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia

Finland

Hungary

Lithuania

N'lands

Slovakia

Sweden

Switz.

Russia and Slovenia did not pass through this stage

Stage 1: increasing ‘postponement’ rates (surprising!); so driver of TFR rise was marked increase in post-peak childbearing

Year-on-year changes to Mean Age at 1st Birth3 year moving averages

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Years

Austria

Bulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia

Finland

Hungary

N'lands

Russia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Sweden

Switz.

Lithuania did not go through this stage

Stage 2: declining postponement rates; accentuated the TFR rises

Change in Standard Deviation of Mean Age of 1st/2nd Birthsover complete period of increasing TFRs

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

AustriaBulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia FinlandHungaryLithuania

N'lands RussiaSlovakiaSloveniaSweden

Switz.

Years

Change in SD MAB1 Change in SD MAB2

Almost all countries have seen a broadening of the fertility curves: increase in births at older ages exceeds decline at younger ages

Change in standard deviation of age at birth

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

19691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009Year

Standard deviation, years

Parity 1 Parity 2 Parity 3 Parity 4 Parity 5+

Parity 1 increase started 1994Parity 2 increase started 1995Parity 3 increase started 1998Parity 4 increase started 2001Parity 5+ increase started 2001

Reversal in order! Parity 1 had least variability,Reversal in order! Parity 1 had least variability,now most; high parities were most variable, now leastnow most; high parities were most variable, now least

Change in peak age-specific fertility rates, 1st/2nd births over complete period of increasing TFRs

-0.015

-0.010

-0.005

0.000

0.005

0.010

0.015

0.020

0.025

AustriaBulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia FinlandHungaryLithuania

N'lands RussiaSlovakiaSloveniaSweden

Switz.

Change in peak ASFR

Change in peak ASFR1 Change in peak ASFR2

Some countries have seen increased intensity of childbearing, particularly 2nd births, while other countries have not

What is the best estimate of how many children women are having in Europe, taking postponement

& recuperation into account?

(Bongaarts & Sobotka method)

Eastern European countries

Bulgaria 1.7 in 2007

Czech Republic 1.8 in 2007

Estonia 1.9 in 2006

Russia 1.6 in 2007

Slovenia 1.7 in 2008

Western European countries

Sweden 2.0 in 2006

Netherlands 1.8 in 2006

Austria 1.7 in 2006

Finland 1.9 in 2007

Switzerland 1.7 in 2008

A fall in TFR (or slow-down in increase) after 2008 may occur in many countries because of the recession - but not necessarily all

Will there be a decline in population?

Depends on:

Migration - balance of immigration and emigration

Changes in life expectancy

Mean age at first birth and life expectancy at 65

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

1970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009

Mean age at first birth

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

Life expectancy at 65

Mean age at 1st birth Life expectancy at 65

A woman in Switzerland can expect to die when her 1st child reaches 57?

Total births and deaths and TFR in Switzerland

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Annual births/deaths

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

TFR

Births Deaths TFR

Natural increase of Switzerland’s population has remained positive even in 40+ years of below replacement level fertility.

Births have always exceeded deaths because life expectancy keeps rising. Number of births depend on structure of population.

Recent rises in TFRfrom year of minimum to maximum

1.10

1.30

1.50

1.70

1.90

2.10

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

TFR

Austria

Bulgaria

Czech Rep

Estonia

Finland

Hungary

Lithuania

N'lands

Russia

Slovakia

Slovenia

Sweden

Switz.

NZ

What’s happening to fertility rates in New Zealand?

What data do you need to make good forecasts?

Accurate register of births by biological birth order and age of mother (marital birth order is not helpful if many non-marital births and complex partnership histories)

Accurate mid-year population counts of women by age (not necessarily easy with migration)

Length of time since previous birth (spacing)

If vital statistics cannot provide good fertility data, then surveys can help, eg. FFS, GGS, panel surveys…

Questions we have explored

• Does the Total Fertility Rate say how many children women have? Not exactly, because of effect of timing

• Which European country had the lowest TFR in recent years and when? 1.12 in Czech Republic, 1997

• If fertility is below replacement level for decades, will the population shrink? Not necessarily, depends on mortality & migration

• What has been the big change in fertility behaviour in recent years? Big increase in later childbearing

• What statistics are needed to make accurate fertility forecasts? Births by biological birth order, population numbers, spacing

Thank you!