Cohort fertility trends across Europe: commonalities and anomalies

Marion Burkimsher

Affiliated to the University of Lausanne

The pros and cons of studying cohort v. period fertility

• It describes how many children women actually have, not

distorted by timing effects (deflation from postponement)

• It gives the best assessment of how many women will ultimately

end up childless

• It is much more stable than period fertility rates

• But we cannot know (for certain) how many children women will

have until they reach ~45 (ie. 1969 cohort with today’s data)

• This is an increasing problem as women are having babies later

and later in their reproductive life

Data source and projection method

Human Fertility Database (http://www.humanfertility.org)

Age-specific fertility rates by birth order for 15 countries: 6 in Western Europe; 7 in Eastern Europe

Plus combined birth orders for UK, Germany, France

ASTLE (age-specific trend with limited extrapolation) method for projecting completed cohort fertility, as proposed by Myrskylä, Goldstein and Cheng (2013)

Focus on cohorts born 1960-1980, especially those born in 1970s: ‘emerging trends’, though some level of uncertainty

Age 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

13 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

14 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

15 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0005 0.0004

16 0.0029 0.0025 0.0029 0.0023 0.0025 0.0026 0.0021 0.0018 0.0018 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0021 0.0025 0.0026 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0017 0.0015 0.0016

17 0.0078 0.0062 0.0065 0.0068 0.0060 0.0052 0.0051 0.0050 0.0047 0.0045 0.0049 0.0053 0.0058 0.0056 0.0059 0.0049 0.0046 0.0045 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038

18 0.0122 0.0112 0.0114 0.0113 0.0101 0.0092 0.0089 0.0079 0.0089 0.0082 0.0089 0.0092 0.0098 0.0098 0.0095 0.0093 0.0073 0.0076 0.0072 0.0074 0.0079

19 0.0192 0.0176 0.0171 0.0151 0.0156 0.0147 0.0136 0.0131 0.0136 0.0139 0.0147 0.0159 0.0149 0.0144 0.0143 0.0134 0.0119 0.0130 0.0142 0.0138 0.0155

20 0.0268 0.0252 0.0244 0.0234 0.0216 0.0206 0.0193 0.0181 0.0187 0.0201 0.0200 0.0196 0.0187 0.0187 0.0174 0.0164 0.0168 0.0177 0.0187 0.0196 0.0196

21 0.0361 0.0337 0.0334 0.0311 0.0295 0.0280 0.0256 0.0250 0.0256 0.0249 0.0226 0.0215 0.0222 0.0213 0.0203 0.0203 0.0214 0.0221 0.0237 0.0248 0.0244

22 0.0455 0.0452 0.0431 0.0390 0.0364 0.0349 0.0334 0.0324 0.0315 0.0296 0.0269 0.0260 0.0250 0.0245 0.0259 0.0252 0.0245 0.0281 0.0286 0.0289 0.0283

23 0.0560 0.0521 0.0487 0.0470 0.0444 0.0417 0.0393 0.0397 0.0360 0.0324 0.0313 0.0298 0.0286 0.0295 0.0298 0.0307 0.0333 0.0341 0.0338 0.0332 0.0343

24 0.0605 0.0573 0.0556 0.0509 0.0480 0.0493 0.0485 0.0453 0.0405 0.0387 0.0381 0.0359 0.0356 0.0367 0.0385 0.0403 0.0396 0.0391 0.0407 0.0409 0.0404

25 0.0653 0.0615 0.0598 0.0564 0.0572 0.0567 0.0534 0.0492 0.0476 0.0460 0.0436 0.0443 0.0445 0.0471 0.0487 0.0488 0.0487 0.0505 0.0472 0.0467 0.0464

26 0.0653 0.0642 0.0633 0.0628 0.0637 0.0616 0.0576 0.0561 0.0554 0.0527 0.0522 0.0532 0.0560 0.0571 0.0568 0.0565 0.0573 0.0569 0.0555 0.0555 0.0551

27 0.0657 0.0646 0.0649 0.0679 0.0659 0.0620 0.0625 0.0617 0.0604 0.0617 0.0632 0.0643 0.0644 0.0663 0.0636 0.0651 0.0638 0.0629 0.0619 0.0617 0.0624

28 0.0620 0.0646 0.0681 0.0664 0.0636 0.0652 0.0658 0.0639 0.0659 0.0697 0.0715 0.0719 0.0715 0.0691 0.0711 0.0688 0.0689 0.0672 0.0675 0.0663 0.0695

29 0.0587 0.0615 0.0612 0.0632 0.0640 0.0645 0.0655 0.0699 0.0720 0.0750 0.0766 0.0739 0.0723 0.0725 0.0716 0.0710 0.0703 0.0694 0.0700 0.0719

30 0.0540 0.0553 0.0541 0.0576 0.0589 0.0588 0.0639 0.0676 0.0722 0.0705 0.0706 0.0714 0.0715 0.0682 0.0689 0.0685 0.0682 0.0682 0.0704

31 0.0428 0.0444 0.0478 0.0486 0.0494 0.0544 0.0584 0.0610 0.0611 0.0624 0.0607 0.0627 0.0634 0.0618 0.0609 0.0617 0.0616 0.0624

32 0.0340 0.0362 0.0369 0.0393 0.0424 0.0450 0.0478 0.0500 0.0499 0.0504 0.0506 0.0514 0.0508 0.0499 0.0500 0.0510 0.0533

33 0.0274 0.0285 0.0285 0.0318 0.0347 0.0363 0.0381 0.0381 0.0392 0.0405 0.0411 0.0399 0.0412 0.0411 0.0420 0.0426

34 0.0214 0.0219 0.0256 0.0258 0.0276 0.0293 0.0297 0.0298 0.0319 0.0320 0.0317 0.0313 0.0319 0.0327 0.0339

35 0.0177 0.0181 0.0192 0.0211 0.0217 0.0227 0.0226 0.0237 0.0250 0.0246 0.0257 0.0248 0.0246 0.0266

36 0.0135 0.0140 0.0155 0.0152 0.0165 0.0163 0.0172 0.0182 0.0178 0.0188 0.0189 0.0196 0.0200

37 0.0102 0.0107 0.0110 0.0116 0.0118 0.0124 0.0127 0.0128 0.0140 0.0137 0.0145 0.0148

38 0.0071 0.0078 0.0080 0.0085 0.0088 0.0093 0.0096 0.0091 0.0100 0.0097 0.0105

39 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0062 0.0064 0.0064 0.0064 0.0069 0.0071 0.0075

40 0.0037 0.0039 0.0042 0.0041 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0046 0.0049

41 0.0025 0.0021 0.0025 0.0027 0.0026 0.0030 0.0028 0.0030

42 0.0014 0.0011 0.0014 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0016

43 0.0007 0.0007 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0009

44 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004

45 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

46 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

47 0.0000 0.0001

48 0.0000

49505152535455

Netherlands asfrVHbo ASFR1Cohort fertility rates by birth cohort, age and birth order (horizontal parallelograms, age in completed years (ACY))

Age 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

13 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

14 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

15 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0005 0.0004

16 0.0029 0.0025 0.0029 0.0023 0.0025 0.0026 0.0021 0.0018 0.0018 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0021 0.0025 0.0026 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0017 0.0015 0.0016

17 0.0078 0.0062 0.0065 0.0068 0.0060 0.0052 0.0051 0.0050 0.0047 0.0045 0.0049 0.0053 0.0058 0.0056 0.0059 0.0049 0.0046 0.0045 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038

18 0.0122 0.0112 0.0114 0.0113 0.0101 0.0092 0.0089 0.0079 0.0089 0.0082 0.0089 0.0092 0.0098 0.0098 0.0095 0.0093 0.0073 0.0076 0.0072 0.0074 0.0079

19 0.0192 0.0176 0.0171 0.0151 0.0156 0.0147 0.0136 0.0131 0.0136 0.0139 0.0147 0.0159 0.0149 0.0144 0.0143 0.0134 0.0119 0.0130 0.0142 0.0138 0.0155

20 0.0268 0.0252 0.0244 0.0234 0.0216 0.0206 0.0193 0.0181 0.0187 0.0201 0.0200 0.0196 0.0187 0.0187 0.0174 0.0164 0.0168 0.0177 0.0187 0.0196 0.0196

21 0.0361 0.0337 0.0334 0.0311 0.0295 0.0280 0.0256 0.0250 0.0256 0.0249 0.0226 0.0215 0.0222 0.0213 0.0203 0.0203 0.0214 0.0221 0.0237 0.0248 0.0244

22 0.0455 0.0452 0.0431 0.0390 0.0364 0.0349 0.0334 0.0324 0.0315 0.0296 0.0269 0.0260 0.0250 0.0245 0.0259 0.0252 0.0245 0.0281 0.0286 0.0289 0.0283

23 0.0560 0.0521 0.0487 0.0470 0.0444 0.0417 0.0393 0.0397 0.0360 0.0324 0.0313 0.0298 0.0286 0.0295 0.0298 0.0307 0.0333 0.0341 0.0338 0.0332 0.0343

24 0.0605 0.0573 0.0556 0.0509 0.0480 0.0493 0.0485 0.0453 0.0405 0.0387 0.0381 0.0359 0.0356 0.0367 0.0385 0.0403 0.0396 0.0391 0.0407 0.0409 0.0404

25 0.0653 0.0615 0.0598 0.0564 0.0572 0.0567 0.0534 0.0492 0.0476 0.0460 0.0436 0.0443 0.0445 0.0471 0.0487 0.0488 0.0487 0.0505 0.0472 0.0467 0.0464

26 0.0653 0.0642 0.0633 0.0628 0.0637 0.0616 0.0576 0.0561 0.0554 0.0527 0.0522 0.0532 0.0560 0.0571 0.0568 0.0565 0.0573 0.0569 0.0555 0.0555 0.0551

27 0.0657 0.0646 0.0649 0.0679 0.0659 0.0620 0.0625 0.0617 0.0604 0.0617 0.0632 0.0643 0.0644 0.0663 0.0636 0.0651 0.0638 0.0629 0.0619 0.0617 0.0624

28 0.0620 0.0646 0.0681 0.0664 0.0636 0.0652 0.0658 0.0639 0.0659 0.0697 0.0715 0.0719 0.0715 0.0691 0.0711 0.0688 0.0689 0.0672 0.0675 0.0663 0.0695

29 0.0587 0.0615 0.0612 0.0632 0.0640 0.0645 0.0655 0.0699 0.0720 0.0750 0.0766 0.0739 0.0723 0.0725 0.0716 0.0710 0.0703 0.0694 0.0700 0.0719 0.0719

30 0.0540 0.0553 0.0541 0.0576 0.0589 0.0588 0.0639 0.0676 0.0722 0.0705 0.0706 0.0714 0.0715 0.0682 0.0689 0.0685 0.0682 0.0682 0.0704 0.0708 0.0712

31 0.0428 0.0444 0.0478 0.0486 0.0494 0.0544 0.0584 0.0610 0.0611 0.0624 0.0607 0.0627 0.0634 0.0618 0.0609 0.0617 0.0616 0.0624 0.0622 0.0620 0.0618

32 0.0340 0.0362 0.0369 0.0393 0.0424 0.0450 0.0478 0.0500 0.0499 0.0504 0.0506 0.0514 0.0508 0.0499 0.0500 0.0510 0.0533 0.0536 0.0540 0.0544 0.0548

33 0.0274 0.0285 0.0285 0.0318 0.0347 0.0363 0.0381 0.0381 0.0392 0.0405 0.0411 0.0399 0.0412 0.0411 0.0420 0.0426 0.0429 0.0432 0.0435 0.0438 0.0441

34 0.0214 0.0219 0.0256 0.0258 0.0276 0.0293 0.0297 0.0298 0.0319 0.0320 0.0317 0.0313 0.0319 0.0327 0.0339 0.0343 0.0347 0.0350 0.0354 0.0358

35 0.0177 0.0181 0.0192 0.0211 0.0217 0.0227 0.0226 0.0237 0.0250 0.0246 0.0257 0.0248 0.0246 0.0266 0.0269 0.0272 0.0275 0.0278 0.0281

36 0.0135 0.0140 0.0155 0.0152 0.0165 0.0163 0.0172 0.0182 0.0178 0.0188 0.0189 0.0196 0.0200 0.0204 0.0207 0.0211 0.0215 0.0218

37 0.0102 0.0107 0.0110 0.0116 0.0118 0.0124 0.0127 0.0128 0.0140 0.0137 0.0145 0.0148 0.0152 0.0156 0.0160 0.0165 0.0169

38 0.0071 0.0078 0.0080 0.0085 0.0088 0.0093 0.0096 0.0091 0.0100 0.0097 0.0105 0.0108 0.0110 0.0113 0.0115 0.0118

39 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0062 0.0064 0.0064 0.0064 0.0069 0.0071 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082 0.0085 0.0087

40 0.0037 0.0039 0.0042 0.0041 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0046 0.0049 0.0050 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057

41 0.0025 0.0021 0.0025 0.0027 0.0026 0.0030 0.0028 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035

42 0.0014 0.0011 0.0014 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0016 0.0017 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0022

43 0.0007 0.0007 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0009 0.0009 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011

44 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005

45 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003

46 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

47 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

48 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

49 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

50 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

51 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

52 0.0000 0.0000

53 0.0000

5455

Age 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

13 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

14 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

15 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0005 0.0004

16 0.0029 0.0025 0.0029 0.0023 0.0025 0.0026 0.0021 0.0018 0.0018 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0021 0.0025 0.0026 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0017 0.0015 0.0016

17 0.0078 0.0062 0.0065 0.0068 0.0060 0.0052 0.0051 0.0050 0.0047 0.0045 0.0049 0.0053 0.0058 0.0056 0.0059 0.0049 0.0046 0.0045 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038

18 0.0122 0.0112 0.0114 0.0113 0.0101 0.0092 0.0089 0.0079 0.0089 0.0082 0.0089 0.0092 0.0098 0.0098 0.0095 0.0093 0.0073 0.0076 0.0072 0.0074 0.0079

19 0.0192 0.0176 0.0171 0.0151 0.0156 0.0147 0.0136 0.0131 0.0136 0.0139 0.0147 0.0159 0.0149 0.0144 0.0143 0.0134 0.0119 0.0130 0.0142 0.0138 0.0155

20 0.0268 0.0252 0.0244 0.0234 0.0216 0.0206 0.0193 0.0181 0.0187 0.0201 0.0200 0.0196 0.0187 0.0187 0.0174 0.0164 0.0168 0.0177 0.0187 0.0196 0.0196

21 0.0361 0.0337 0.0334 0.0311 0.0295 0.0280 0.0256 0.0250 0.0256 0.0249 0.0226 0.0215 0.0222 0.0213 0.0203 0.0203 0.0214 0.0221 0.0237 0.0248 0.0244

22 0.0455 0.0452 0.0431 0.0390 0.0364 0.0349 0.0334 0.0324 0.0315 0.0296 0.0269 0.0260 0.0250 0.0245 0.0259 0.0252 0.0245 0.0281 0.0286 0.0289 0.0283

23 0.0560 0.0521 0.0487 0.0470 0.0444 0.0417 0.0393 0.0397 0.0360 0.0324 0.0313 0.0298 0.0286 0.0295 0.0298 0.0307 0.0333 0.0341 0.0338 0.0332 0.0343

24 0.0605 0.0573 0.0556 0.0509 0.0480 0.0493 0.0485 0.0453 0.0405 0.0387 0.0381 0.0359 0.0356 0.0367 0.0385 0.0403 0.0396 0.0391 0.0407 0.0409 0.0404

25 0.0653 0.0615 0.0598 0.0564 0.0572 0.0567 0.0534 0.0492 0.0476 0.0460 0.0436 0.0443 0.0445 0.0471 0.0487 0.0488 0.0487 0.0505 0.0472 0.0467 0.0464

26 0.0653 0.0642 0.0633 0.0628 0.0637 0.0616 0.0576 0.0561 0.0554 0.0527 0.0522 0.0532 0.0560 0.0571 0.0568 0.0565 0.0573 0.0569 0.0555 0.0555 0.0551

27 0.0657 0.0646 0.0649 0.0679 0.0659 0.0620 0.0625 0.0617 0.0604 0.0617 0.0632 0.0643 0.0644 0.0663 0.0636 0.0651 0.0638 0.0629 0.0619 0.0617 0.0624

28 0.0620 0.0646 0.0681 0.0664 0.0636 0.0652 0.0658 0.0639 0.0659 0.0697 0.0715 0.0719 0.0715 0.0691 0.0711 0.0688 0.0689 0.0672 0.0675 0.0663 0.0695

29 0.0587 0.0615 0.0612 0.0632 0.0640 0.0645 0.0655 0.0699 0.0720 0.0750 0.0766 0.0739 0.0723 0.0725 0.0716 0.0710 0.0703 0.0694 0.0700 0.0719 0.0719

30 0.0540 0.0553 0.0541 0.0576 0.0589 0.0588 0.0639 0.0676 0.0722 0.0705 0.0706 0.0714 0.0715 0.0682 0.0689 0.0685 0.0682 0.0682 0.0704 0.0708 0.0712

31 0.0428 0.0444 0.0478 0.0486 0.0494 0.0544 0.0584 0.0610 0.0611 0.0624 0.0607 0.0627 0.0634 0.0618 0.0609 0.0617 0.0616 0.0624 0.0622 0.0620 0.0618

32 0.0340 0.0362 0.0369 0.0393 0.0424 0.0450 0.0478 0.0500 0.0499 0.0504 0.0506 0.0514 0.0508 0.0499 0.0500 0.0510 0.0533 0.0536 0.0540 0.0544 0.0548

33 0.0274 0.0285 0.0285 0.0318 0.0347 0.0363 0.0381 0.0381 0.0392 0.0405 0.0411 0.0399 0.0412 0.0411 0.0420 0.0426 0.0429 0.0432 0.0435 0.0438 0.0441

34 0.0214 0.0219 0.0256 0.0258 0.0276 0.0293 0.0297 0.0298 0.0319 0.0320 0.0317 0.0313 0.0319 0.0327 0.0339 0.0343 0.0347 0.0350 0.0354 0.0358 0.0358

35 0.0177 0.0181 0.0192 0.0211 0.0217 0.0227 0.0226 0.0237 0.0250 0.0246 0.0257 0.0248 0.0246 0.0266 0.0269 0.0272 0.0275 0.0278 0.0281 0.0281 0.0281

36 0.0135 0.0140 0.0155 0.0152 0.0165 0.0163 0.0172 0.0182 0.0178 0.0188 0.0189 0.0196 0.0200 0.0204 0.0207 0.0211 0.0215 0.0218 0.0218 0.0218 0.0218

37 0.0102 0.0107 0.0110 0.0116 0.0118 0.0124 0.0127 0.0128 0.0140 0.0137 0.0145 0.0148 0.0152 0.0156 0.0160 0.0165 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169

38 0.0071 0.0078 0.0080 0.0085 0.0088 0.0093 0.0096 0.0091 0.0100 0.0097 0.0105 0.0108 0.0110 0.0113 0.0115 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118

39 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0062 0.0064 0.0064 0.0064 0.0069 0.0071 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082 0.0085 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087

40 0.0037 0.0039 0.0042 0.0041 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0046 0.0049 0.0050 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057

41 0.0025 0.0021 0.0025 0.0027 0.0026 0.0030 0.0028 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035

42 0.0014 0.0011 0.0014 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0016 0.0017 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022

43 0.0007 0.0007 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0009 0.0009 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011

44 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

45 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003

46 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

47 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

48 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

49 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

50 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

51 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

52 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

53 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

54 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

55 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

Age 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198012 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

13 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

14 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002

15 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0008 0.0006 0.0005 0.0004

16 0.0029 0.0025 0.0029 0.0023 0.0025 0.0026 0.0021 0.0018 0.0018 0.0022 0.0023 0.0024 0.0021 0.0025 0.0026 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0017 0.0015 0.0016

17 0.0078 0.0062 0.0065 0.0068 0.0060 0.0052 0.0051 0.0050 0.0047 0.0045 0.0049 0.0053 0.0058 0.0056 0.0059 0.0049 0.0046 0.0045 0.0036 0.0037 0.0038

18 0.0122 0.0112 0.0114 0.0113 0.0101 0.0092 0.0089 0.0079 0.0089 0.0082 0.0089 0.0092 0.0098 0.0098 0.0095 0.0093 0.0073 0.0076 0.0072 0.0074 0.0079

19 0.0192 0.0176 0.0171 0.0151 0.0156 0.0147 0.0136 0.0131 0.0136 0.0139 0.0147 0.0159 0.0149 0.0144 0.0143 0.0134 0.0119 0.0130 0.0142 0.0138 0.0155

20 0.0268 0.0252 0.0244 0.0234 0.0216 0.0206 0.0193 0.0181 0.0187 0.0201 0.0200 0.0196 0.0187 0.0187 0.0174 0.0164 0.0168 0.0177 0.0187 0.0196 0.0196

21 0.0361 0.0337 0.0334 0.0311 0.0295 0.0280 0.0256 0.0250 0.0256 0.0249 0.0226 0.0215 0.0222 0.0213 0.0203 0.0203 0.0214 0.0221 0.0237 0.0248 0.0244

22 0.0455 0.0452 0.0431 0.0390 0.0364 0.0349 0.0334 0.0324 0.0315 0.0296 0.0269 0.0260 0.0250 0.0245 0.0259 0.0252 0.0245 0.0281 0.0286 0.0289 0.0283

23 0.0560 0.0521 0.0487 0.0470 0.0444 0.0417 0.0393 0.0397 0.0360 0.0324 0.0313 0.0298 0.0286 0.0295 0.0298 0.0307 0.0333 0.0341 0.0338 0.0332 0.0343

24 0.0605 0.0573 0.0556 0.0509 0.0480 0.0493 0.0485 0.0453 0.0405 0.0387 0.0381 0.0359 0.0356 0.0367 0.0385 0.0403 0.0396 0.0391 0.0407 0.0409 0.0404

25 0.0653 0.0615 0.0598 0.0564 0.0572 0.0567 0.0534 0.0492 0.0476 0.0460 0.0436 0.0443 0.0445 0.0471 0.0487 0.0488 0.0487 0.0505 0.0472 0.0467 0.0464

26 0.0653 0.0642 0.0633 0.0628 0.0637 0.0616 0.0576 0.0561 0.0554 0.0527 0.0522 0.0532 0.0560 0.0571 0.0568 0.0565 0.0573 0.0569 0.0555 0.0555 0.0551

27 0.0657 0.0646 0.0649 0.0679 0.0659 0.0620 0.0625 0.0617 0.0604 0.0617 0.0632 0.0643 0.0644 0.0663 0.0636 0.0651 0.0638 0.0629 0.0619 0.0617 0.0624

28 0.0620 0.0646 0.0681 0.0664 0.0636 0.0652 0.0658 0.0639 0.0659 0.0697 0.0715 0.0719 0.0715 0.0691 0.0711 0.0688 0.0689 0.0672 0.0675 0.0663 0.0695

29 0.0587 0.0615 0.0612 0.0632 0.0640 0.0645 0.0655 0.0699 0.0720 0.0750 0.0766 0.0739 0.0723 0.0725 0.0716 0.0710 0.0703 0.0694 0.0700 0.0719 0.0719

30 0.0540 0.0553 0.0541 0.0576 0.0589 0.0588 0.0639 0.0676 0.0722 0.0705 0.0706 0.0714 0.0715 0.0682 0.0689 0.0685 0.0682 0.0682 0.0704 0.0708 0.0712

31 0.0428 0.0444 0.0478 0.0486 0.0494 0.0544 0.0584 0.0610 0.0611 0.0624 0.0607 0.0627 0.0634 0.0618 0.0609 0.0617 0.0616 0.0624 0.0622 0.0620 0.0618

32 0.0340 0.0362 0.0369 0.0393 0.0424 0.0450 0.0478 0.0500 0.0499 0.0504 0.0506 0.0514 0.0508 0.0499 0.0500 0.0510 0.0533 0.0536 0.0540 0.0544 0.0548

33 0.0274 0.0285 0.0285 0.0318 0.0347 0.0363 0.0381 0.0381 0.0392 0.0405 0.0411 0.0399 0.0412 0.0411 0.0420 0.0426 0.0429 0.0432 0.0435 0.0438 0.0441

34 0.0214 0.0219 0.0256 0.0258 0.0276 0.0293 0.0297 0.0298 0.0319 0.0320 0.0317 0.0313 0.0319 0.0327 0.0339 0.0343 0.0347 0.0350 0.0354 0.0358 0.0358

35 0.0177 0.0181 0.0192 0.0211 0.0217 0.0227 0.0226 0.0237 0.0250 0.0246 0.0257 0.0248 0.0246 0.0266 0.0269 0.0272 0.0275 0.0278 0.0281 0.0281 0.0281

36 0.0135 0.0140 0.0155 0.0152 0.0165 0.0163 0.0172 0.0182 0.0178 0.0188 0.0189 0.0196 0.0200 0.0204 0.0207 0.0211 0.0215 0.0218 0.0218 0.0218 0.0218

37 0.0102 0.0107 0.0110 0.0116 0.0118 0.0124 0.0127 0.0128 0.0140 0.0137 0.0145 0.0148 0.0152 0.0156 0.0160 0.0165 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169 0.0169

38 0.0071 0.0078 0.0080 0.0085 0.0088 0.0093 0.0096 0.0091 0.0100 0.0097 0.0105 0.0108 0.0110 0.0113 0.0115 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118 0.0118

39 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0062 0.0064 0.0064 0.0064 0.0069 0.0071 0.0075 0.0078 0.0080 0.0082 0.0085 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087 0.0087

40 0.0037 0.0039 0.0042 0.0041 0.0045 0.0046 0.0047 0.0046 0.0049 0.0050 0.0052 0.0054 0.0055 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057 0.0057

41 0.0025 0.0021 0.0025 0.0027 0.0026 0.0030 0.0028 0.0030 0.0031 0.0032 0.0033 0.0034 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035

42 0.0014 0.0011 0.0014 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0016 0.0017 0.0019 0.0020 0.0021 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022 0.0022

43 0.0007 0.0007 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0009 0.0009 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011

44 0.0002 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005

45 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003

46 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

47 0.0000 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001

48 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

49 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

50 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

51 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

52 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

53 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

54 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

55 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

CTFR1 0.8275 0.8198 0.8230 0.8201 0.8174 0.8183 0.8182 0.8183 0.8233 0.8226 0.8222 0.8216 0.8235 0.8251 0.8294 0.8306 0.8315 0.8389 0.8413 0.8441 0.8503

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980

Bulgaria

Estonia

Lithuania

Netherlands

Russia

Slovenia

Sweden

Switzerland

France

Germany

GB

Countries with decline and rebound in cohort fertility

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980

Austria

Finland

Norway

Countries with relatively stable cohort fertility

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980

Czech Rep

Hungary

Portugal

Slovakia

Countries with ongoing decline in cohort fertility

(although they saw rising period TFRs after ~2000)

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Decline>rebound

Stability

Ongoing decline

Observations

• Family sizes are very different across Europe

• 2 children average seen in Scandinavian countries (Norway,

Sweden, Finland, Estonia) plus Britain and France

• Germanic countries have smallest family sizes, <1.6 children

(Germany, Austria), now also Portugal, Hungary, Slovakia

• Portugal, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Rep seeing ongoing decline

• Rebound in fertility after ~1972 cohort across many countries;

reflects period TFR rebound which happened ~2000

• Range in 1960=1.6-2.2; 1970=1.5-2.1; 1980=1.4-2.1

Highest Slovakia>Norway>Britain | Lowest Germany>Portugal

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

AustriaBulgaria

Czech Rep

EstoniaFinlandHungaryLithuania

Netherlands

NorwayPortugalRussia

SlovakiaSloveniaSweden

Switzerland

FranceGermany

GB

1st births 2nd births 3rd births Higher bo

Change in CTFR by birth order from 1960-1970 cohort

(grey bars for no birth order data)

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.20

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

AustriaBulgaria

Czech Rep

EstoniaFinlandHungaryLithuania

Netherlands

NorwayPortugalRussia

SlovakiaSloveniaSweden

Switzerland

FranceGermany

GB

1st births 2nd births 3rd births Higher bo

Change in CTFR by birth order from 1970-1980 cohort

(grey bars for no birth order data)

Observations

• In most countries changes in birth order rates are all in the same

direction

• Decline in family sizes across all countries between 1960 and

1970 cohort

• Changes in birth order 2 contributed most to the change

(+ve or -ve) in fertility in most (but not all) countries

• In (almost) all Eastern European countries there has been an

ongoing decline in first birth rates (= rise in childlessness). In the

communist era marriage and childbearing was early and almost

universal

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10

CTFR total

CTFR1

FIN 1970

FIN 1980

AUT 1970

HUN 1980

HUN 1970

AUT 1980

PRT 1980

PRT 1970RUS 1970

RUS 1980

SVK 1980

SVK 1970

BGR 1970

BGR 1980

SVN 1970

LTU 1970

CHE 1980

CZE 1980NLD 1970

SVN 1980

NLD 1980 EST 1980

LTU 1980

EST 1970

CZE 1970

SWE 1970

NOR 1970

CHE 1970

NOR 1980

SWE 1980

CTFR and CTFR1 trajectories between 1970 & 1980 cohorts

CTFR and CTFR>1 trajectories between 1970 & 1980 cohorts

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10

CTFR

CTFR >1

PRT 1980

RUS 1970

HUN 1980SVK 1980

AUT 1980AUT 1970

CHE 1970

BGR 1980BGR 1970

PRT 1970

RUS 1980

CHE

SVN 1970LTU 1970

NLD 1970SVN 1980

NLD 1980

LTU 1980 CZE 1970

CZE 1980

HUN 1970EST 1970

SVK 1970

EST 1980FIN 1970

FIN 1980SWE 1970

NOR 1980

SWE 1980

NOR 1970

Observations

• Bulgaria and Portugal have lower levels of childlessness than

would be predicted from their overall fertility rate

• Finland has a significantly higher level of childlessness than

would be expected from it overall fertility rate (Britain is probably

similar)

• Rises and falls in birth order fertility rates >1 are always

associated with rises/falls in total fertility rates

• However, several ex-communist countries (Estonia, Russia,

Lithuania, Slovenia) have seen an increase in childlessness

(decline in CTRF1) but a rise in higher order births

Commonalities

• Most countries are seeing a bottoming out and then stabilisation

or a rise in the total fertility rate of cohorts born after 1970

• There was a universal decline in fertility between women born in

1960 and those born in 1970 in Europe

• All Eastern European countries have seen a increase in

childlessness since the 1960 cohort

• An increase in higher order births (>1) is associated with an

increase in total fertility, and vice versa

Anomalies

• Although most countries’ CTFR is stable or rising, Portugal,

Hungary, Czech Rep and Slovakia are seeing ongoing decline

• Low childlessness does not always equate to higher fertility;

Bulgaria and Portugal have lower childlessness than would be

expected from their total fertility

• High childlessness (20%+) does not always equate to lower

fertility; Finland has a higher level of childlessness than would be

expected from its overall fertility rate (Britain is probably similar)

• A rise in childlessness is not always associated with a decline in

total fertility; Estonia, Russia, Lithuania and Slovenia have seen a

rise in childlessness at the same time as a rise in overall fertility

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

No. children 1975 cohort

1.9–2.0

1.7–1.8

1.6

Papers

Myrskylä, Mikko, Joshua R. Goldstein, and Yen‐hsin Alice Cheng (2013). ‘New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals.’ Population and Development Review 39(1): 31-56

Burkimsher, Marion. Forthcoming. ‘Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: turning the corner from declining first birth rates.’ Demographic Research.

Thank you!

drmarionb@gmail.com