April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297...

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April 26, 2019

Transcript of April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297...

Page 1: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

April 26, 2019

Page 2: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products
Page 3: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

Prices coming down from peak levels

• Higher vs Q1 2018, lower vs Q4 2018

Sales growth of 15% vs Q1 2018

• Price/mix 5%, volumes 5%, currency 5%

EBITDA up 33% vs Q1 2018+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

+ Higher pulp volumes

+ Restructuring Wood France (SEK +90m)

- Higher prices for wood raw material

Increasing pulp volumes from Östrand ramp-up

SCA Wood France merged with Groupe ISB• SCA retains 38.5% share in the combined company

Acquisition of 10,000 ha forest land in Latvia (post Q1)

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1,175

1,034

1,5491,494

1,560

27%

22%

33%30% 31%

Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19

EBITDA development (SEKm)

Note: 1) ROCE for the industrial segments; Wood, Pulp and Paper. ROCE calculated as LTM.

EBITDA margin

31%

Industrial ROCE 1)

17%

Net debt/EBITDA

1.6x

EBITDA (SEKm)

1,560 33%

4

Page 5: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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1,298

1,651

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

304331

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

23.4%

20.0%

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

27% 9%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Higher prices

Increased wood sourcing to meet higher

pulpwood demand

Sales up 27%

+ Increased volumes to the expanded pulp mill

+ Higher prices

EBITDA up 9%

+ Higher prices

- Larger import volumes

90

100

110

120

130

Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19

Pulpwood Sawlogs

Price development – Pulpwood and Sawlogs

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95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19

Price index SEK

1,5031,678

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

172

297

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

11.4%

17.7%

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

Price development – Solid Wood Products

12% SCA Wood France merged with Groupe ISB

Stable delivery volumes

Lower prices vs Q4

Sales up 12%

+ Increased volumes

+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

EBITDA up 73%

+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

+ Increased volumes and yield improvement

+ Restructuring SCA Wood France (SEK +90m)

- Increased wood raw material costs

73%

Page 7: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Full NBSK capacity of 900kt/year

Ramp-up period of 12-18 months

• 2020 first full year with full

capacity

Production/deliveries on track 1)

• Q3 ’18 - 147kt / 105kt

• Q4 ‘18 - 160kt / 145kt

• Q1 ’19 - 172kt / 168kt

Average daily NBSK production (tonnes)Full capacity

Actual

Note: 1) Including CTMP. April production refers to 2019-04-01 to 2019-04-23.

12 months

ramp-up18 months

ramp-up

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan/1

8

Fe

b/1

8

Ma

r/18

Apr/

18

Ma

y/18

Jun/1

8

Jul/18

Aug

/18

Sep

/18

Oct/1

8

Nov/1

8

Dec/1

8

Jan/1

9

Fe

b/1

9

Ma

r/19

Apr/

19

Ma

y/19

Jun/1

9

Jul/19

Aug

/19

Sep

/19

Oct/1

9

Nov/1

9

Dec/1

9

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8

589

1,134

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

178

351

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

30.2% 31.0%

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Price development – NBSK Pulp

Lower prices vs Q4

Increasing volumes due to the ramp-up of the

expanded pulp-mill

Sales up 93%+ Increased volumes

+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

EBITDA up 97%+ Increased volumes

+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

- Higher raw material costs

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17 Q4 '17 Q1 '18 Q2 '18 Q3 '18 Q4 '18 Q1 '19

Price index SEK

93% 97%

Page 9: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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80

100

120

140

160

Q1'17

Q1'18

Q1'19

Price index SEK

2,383 2,366

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

586 616

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

24.6%26.0%

Q1 2018 Q1 2019

80

100

120

140

160

Q1'17

Q1'18

Q1'19

Price development –

Kraftliner

Price development –

Publication paper

-1% 5%

Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin

Increased prices for Publication Paper

Lower prices for Kraftliner vs Q4

Sales down 1%

- Lower volumes

+ Higher prices and positive currency effects

EBITDA up 5%

+ Higher prices for Publication Paper

+ Positive currency effects

+ Improved product and market mix

- Higher raw material cost and lower volumes

Project for increased share of white-top kraftliner

progressing according to plan

Page 10: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Q1 2019

2.7 TWh

2020

5.0 TWh

2021

6.7 TWh

New target

11 TWh

Initiate new wind projects

Develop after market offering

Target of 5.0 TWh by 2020 will be exceeded

• 6.7 TWh secured by 2021

New long-term target of 11.0 TWh

EBIT target of SEK ~100m (6.7 TWh)

Page 11: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

Bioenergy

SCA’s renewable

products

Non-renewable

products

Fossil

fuels

Paper Plastic

Solid-wood

products Concrete

Operations

Higher growth enables more substitution –renewable alternatives replace fossil

based products

Replaces

5Mt CO2

2

Investments andinnovation reducecarbon emissions

Low

Emissions

0.9Mt CO2

SCA’s climate benefits amount to8 million tonnes of CO2 per annum,

which is more than the total emissionsfrom all the truck traffic and domestic

air travel in Sweden*

1

Fertilization

Contorta

pine

Active

silviculture

SCA’s forests bind CO2 and

replace fossil based products

Growing forests bind CO2 –active forest management

increases growth

3

Improved

seedlings

* Source: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency

Binds

net

4Mt CO2

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Page 12: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products
Page 13: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Quarter

SEKm Q1 2019 Q1 2018 Change

Net sales 5,076 4,400 15%

EBITDA 1,560 1,175 33%

EBITDA margin 30.7% 26.7% 4.0 p.p.

EBIT 1,168 889 31%

EBIT margin 23.0% 20.2% 2.8 p.p.

Financial items -30 1

Profit before tax 1,138 890 28%

Tax -230 -191

Profit for the period 908 699 30%

Earnings per share, SEK 1.29 1.00

Page 14: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Paper

Net sales (SEKm)

PulpForest Wood

364316

358304

371

292

427

331

30%25%

28%23%

32%

20%

28%

20%

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

1,2

10

1,2

61

1,2

87

1,2

98

1,1

62

1,4

55

1,5

40

1,6

51

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

2,0

72

2,0

96

2,2

20

2,3

83

2,4

26

2,4

13

2,4

21

2,3

66

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

1,6

37

1,5

67

1,4

26

1,5

03

1,8

46

1,7

12

1,5

58

1,6

78

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

585

644

672

589

485 743 1

,049

1,1

34

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

154187 184

172

230276

226297

9% 12% 13% 11% 13%16% 15%

18%

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

71

158 149 178

-112

273370 351

12%

25%22%

30%

37% 35%31%

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

291

439481

586618

728

536

616

14%

21% 22%25% 26%

30%

22%26%

Q2'17

Q3'17

Q4'17

Q1'18

Q2'18

Q3'18

Q4'18

Q1'19

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin

Page 15: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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SEK 4,400m

5%5%

5%

SEK 5,076m

Net salesQ1 2018

Price/Mix Volume Currency Net salesQ1 2019

+ 15%

Positive for all segments

Positive EUR and USD

Higher pulp volumes

Page 16: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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SEK 1,175m

SEK +248m

SEK +95m

SEK-173m SEK

+51m

SEK+118m

SEK+46m

SEK 1,560m

EBITDAQ1 2018

Price/Mix Volume Raw material Energy Currency Other EBITDAQ1 2019

+ 33%

Higher pricesfor all segments

EBITDA margin

26.7%EBITDA margin

30.7%

Higher costs for wood raw material EUR and USD positive

Higher pulp volumes

Restructuring SCAWood France

Improved energy balance in expanded pulp mill

Page 17: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Quarter

SEKm Q1 2019 Q1 2018

EBITDA 1,560 1,175

Revaluation of biological assets and other non cash flow items -246 -253

Operating cash surplus 1,314 922

Change in working capital -353 -159

Current capital expenditures -168 -76

Other operating cash flow -167 -96

Operating cash flow 626 591

Strategic capital expenditures -143 -634

Page 18: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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SEK 7,020m

SEK-626m SEK

+143m

SEK +158m

SEK +1,229m

SEK+1,211m

SEK+15m

SEK 9,150m

Net debtQ4 2018

Operatingcash flow

Strategic capex Acquisitions Dividend Leasing effect(IFRS 16)

Other Net debtQ1 2019

Net debt / EBITDA

1.3xNet debt / EBITDA

1.6x

Page 19: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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SEKm Mar 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018

Forest assets according to IAS 41 1) 32,298 32,065

Deferred tax relating to Forest assets -6,653 -6,605

Forest assets, net of deferred tax 25,645 25,460

Working capital 3,955 3,735

Working capital/Net sales 2) 18% 18%

Other capital employed 18,174 16,887

Total capital employed 47,774 46,082

Net debt 9,150 7,020

Net debt/EBITDA 3) 1.6x 1.3x

Equity 38,624 39,062

Net debt/Equity 24% 18%

Note: 1) Gross value before deferred taxes. 2) Average working capital for 13 months as a

percentage of 12-month rolling net sales. 3) 12-months EBITDA, up to end of each period.

Page 20: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

Prices coming down from peak levels

Sales growth of 15% vs Q1 2018

EBITDA up 33% vs Q1 2018

Increasing pulp volumes from Östrand ramp-up

SCA Wood France merged with Groupe ISB

Acquisition of 10,000 ha forest land in Latvia (post Q1)

20

Page 21: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products
Page 22: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products
Page 23: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

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Net sales (SEKm)

EBITDA (SEKm) and EBITDA margin 1)

603478 531

670904

1,029

12%9% 10% 11%

14% 15%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

1,232 1,213 1,2381,363 1,394 1,421

24% 24% 25%27% 26% 24%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

768970

530 482709

882

31%35%

21%19%

25% 26%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

5,187 5,108 4,978 5,070 5,455 5,808

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

5,114 5,315 5,4415,994

6,618 6,794

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

2,518 2,760 2,492 2,542 2,8663,411

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

8,226 8,5487,744

8,434

9,643 9,626

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

PaperPulpForest Wood

1,243 1,295 1,2451,479

2,468 2,498

15% 15% 16% 18%

26% 26%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LTM

Note: 2014 and 2015 EBITDA refer to adjusted figures. 2016 and forward refer to unadjusted

figures. For details please see the quarterly report.

Page 24: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products
Page 25: April 26, 2019 - SCA€¦ · Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Net sales (SEKm) EBITDA (SEKm) EBITDA margin 172 297 Q1 2018 Q1 2019 11.4% 17.7% Q1 2018 Q1 2019 Price development –Solid Wood Products

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on our current expectations and

are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could negatively affect our business. Please read SCA’s most recent

annual report for a better understanding of these risks and uncertainties.