RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity...

27
RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

Transcript of RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity...

Page 1: RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations. 5 EBITDA EBITDA is more than tripled

RESULTS FOR Q12017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE

Page 2: RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations. 5 EBITDA EBITDA is more than tripled

02 Operation

03Financials

01Market

2

Page 3: RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations. 5 EBITDA EBITDA is more than tripled

01Market

3

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4

2017 First Quarter Market Conditions

Normalizedwinter

conditions

Supply disruptionsHigh maintenance

Refinery Fires

IncreasingIndustrialActivities

Low Capacity Utilization in Latin America

Refineries

OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut

• FED Rate Hikes

• Concerns regarding the

future of Trump policies

Demonitisationin India

Brexit & Elections in

Europe

Stock levels were still

higher

High production of US, Brazil and

Canada/ Increase in

rig counts in US

Product Market Crude Oil

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4,3

0,3

3,5

11,08,8

6,1

Jan Feb Mar

2016 2017

Key Highlights from Q1

5*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.

EBITDA

EBITDA is more than

tripled

Strong net refinery

margins

$/bbl

Net Refinery Margin

Mil. $

150114

427

2015 2016 2017

Middle Distillate Production

20% more diesel and jet

fuel production

2,53

3,6

2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Mil. Tons

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0,59

0,51

0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7

2016

2017

Jet Fuel

-12.6%

2 Months 2017 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)

2,96

3,05

0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5

2016

2017

Diesel

0,30

0,30

0,00 0,03 0,06 0,09 0,12 0,15 0,18 0,21 0,24 0,27 0,30 0,33

2016

2017

Gasoline

-1.4%

0,15

0,14

0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,12 0,14 0,16

2016

2017

Fuel Oil*

-10.1%

Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.

6

+3.0%

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Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)

7

-12

-8

-4

0

Price Differentials

Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy

Brent

-1,23 -1,46

-1,73

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012-2017 Differental Range 2015 2016 2017

Ural DifferentialsBrent

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Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)

8

14,4

11,210,7

9,4

7,3 7,7 7,9

10,29,5

6

8

10

12

14

16

1Ç 2Ç 3Ç 4Ç

Jet Fuel2015 2016 2017

15,715,2

14,6

10,8

7,9

9,2 8,9

11,210,5

6

8

10

12

14

16

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Diesel2015 2016 2017

13,0

19,418,9

13,5

15,2

14,5

10,9

12,8

13,3

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Gasoline2015 2016 2017

-11,6 -12,0

-13,1

-12,5

-13,2

-15,0

-10,6

-5,7

-9,1

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Fuel Oil2015 2016 2017

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02 Operations

9

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5,6

6,97,3 7,4

6,6 6,77,2 7,4

7,1

0

2

4

6

8

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Min / Max 2007/2015

2015

2016

2017

Capacity Utilisation* (%)6

5,1

80

,7

94

,5 99

,9

2,9

3,4

5,2

6,5

68,0

84,1

99,7

106,4

40

60

80

100

120

2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1

Crude Oil Other

Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)

Production

10

+6.7%

*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.

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Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)

11

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

3,6 3,95,1 5,0 4,1

5,46,4

4,96,8 6,9

4,36,2 6,4

1,11,7

1,8 2,3

0,9

1,91,3

1,5

1,2 1,2

1,8

1,7 1,3

4,75,6

6,9 7,2

4,7

7,3 7,7

6,4

7,9 8,1

6,1

7,9 7,6

0

2

4

6

8

10

14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16

Total Sales

Domestic

Export

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

0,76 0,86 1,00 0,83 0,98 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,50 1,27 0,91 1,13 1,010,23 0,27 0,43 0,29 0,42

0,63 0,91 0,791,08 1,16

0,510,90 0,870,39 0,43

0,450,44

0,460,52 0,55 0,54

0,60 0,64

0,440,50 0,521,48

1,732,27

2,33 1,66

2,232,75

1,83

2,62 2,94

1,73

2,59 2,872,86

3,29

4,15 3,893,52

4,64

5,44

4,34

5,80 6,01

3,59

5,12 5,27

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16

Domestic sales of selected productsJet Fuel

Bitümen

Gasoline

Diesel

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Opet

830 885 915 938 966 1.009 1.073 1087

394 394 410 418 427 435431 437

1.224 1.279 1.325 1.356 1.393 1.444 1.504 1.524

0

300

600

900

1.200

1.500

1.800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1

Station NumbersOpet Sunpet

12

Market positions as of Jan 2017:

•White Product: 18.9%

•Black Product: 10.5%

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03Financials

13

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Med & Tüpraş Net Margins ($/bbl)

2,53,2

6,5 6,0

1,7 1,9

4,84,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016

12 Month

Tüpraş Net Med Complex

14

2,4

4,7

2,8

8,7

0,4

6,0

3,85,0

0

3

6

9

12

2014 2015 2016 2017

1st Quarter

Tüpraş Net Med Complex

* Hedge Operations not included

$ / bblGross

MarginInventory

Effect

Clean Gross

Margin

Clean NET Margin

Med Margin

2016 Q1 8,22 -0,18 8,40 2,99 3,84

2017 Q1 13,26 0,50 12,76 8,15 5,01

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Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices)

15

Q1

Product Price, $/ton

Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl

2017 2016Product Yield %

2017 2016

LPG 455,8 285,9 3,30% -13,2 -8,4

Gasoline 544,2 396,5 19,50% 13,3 15,0

Naptha 466,6 299,7 1,03% -1,1 -0,1

Jet Fuel 497,5 323,8 15,42% 9,5 7,3

Diesel 478,4 310,9 30,39% 10,5 7,9

Diesel 1000 470,8 300,3 1,24% 9,5 6,5

Fuel Oil 1% 314,5 144,9 0,94% -5,3 -11,5

Fuel Oil 3,5% 289,9 134,1 5,75% -9,1 -13,2

Diğer 263,4 135,1 16,80% -10,1 -11,5

Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,64 3,44

Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 53,8 33,9 94,36%

Margin Differences, $/bbl 1,20

Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 53,65

Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 64,2

Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL 237,0

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Income Statement (In TL)

16

Q1 Q1% Diff. Million TL

12 M

2015

12 M

2016% Diff.

2016 2017

6.191 12.370 100 Net Sales 36.893 34.855 -6

407 1.608 295 Gross Profit 4.126 3.649 -12

-227 -239 6 Operating Expenses -877 -995 13

93 -57 -161Income/Loss from other

operations-498 -296 -40

274 1.312 379 Operating Profit 2.752 2.357 -14

288 1.370 375Operating Profit Before Fin.

Income/Loss2.824 2.516 -11

182 162 -11 Financial Income 863 1.174 36

-374 -481 29 Finance Expenses -1.462 -1.746 19

96 1.052 997 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225 1.944 -13

79 869 1.001 Net Profit 2.550 1.793 -30

335,3 1.575,0 369,8 EBITDA *(mn. TL) 3.798,9 3.396,3 -10,6

390,4 1.264,9 224,0 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934,5 2.984,3 -24,1

408,1 1.454,4 256 EBITDA (mn. TL)-CMB 3.237,8 2.898,3 -10,5

463,2 1.144,4 147,0 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB- CCS 3.373,3 2.486,3 -26,3

* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas in CMB rules these are included in operationg profit

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Income Statement (In USD)

17

Q1 Q1% Diff. Million USD

12 M

2015

12 M

2016% Diff.

2016 2017

2.101 3.351 59 Net Sales 13.571 11.547 -15

138 436 215 Gross Profit 1.518 1.209 -20

-77 -65 -16 Operating Expenses -323 -330 2

32 -15 -149Income/Loss from other

operations-183 -98 -46

93 355 283 Operating Profit 1.012 781 -23

98 371 279Operating Profit Before Fin.

Income/Loss1.039 834 -20

62 44 -29 Financial Income 317 389 23

-127 -130 3 Finance Expenses -538 -578 8

33 285 775 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 819 644 -21

27 235 779 Net Profit 938 594 -37

113,8 426,7 275,0 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397,4 1.125,1 -19,5

136,2 343,5 152,2 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962,0 -32,8

138,5 394,0 184,5 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 1.191,0 960,1 -19,4

160,9 310,9 93,1 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 1.226,0 797,0 -35,0

* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas in CMB rules these are included in operationg profit

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18

96

1.052

443

380

237

44

130

279

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1.000

1.100

1.200

1.300

Profit Before Taxin 2016

Yield Difference Inventory Effect Crack MarginDifferences

Crude OilDifferentials

FX Effect Others Profit Before Taxin 2017

Profit Bridge On Tupras 2017 Q1 (Mn TL)

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19

Financial Highlights (mn $)

95 79 150 150 114

427

153 78-27

415237

361315 226

410

294

10689

-11

422

480715560

338

1.397

1.125

-200

200

600

1.000

1.400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

EBITDA

16172

231112

27

23575

75

171273

113

309 435

175 268

197

27147 91

285

256

817

629 667

938

594

0

250

500

750

1.000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Net Income-1

.95

5

55

1

1.3

40 1.9

94

1.8

69

1.5

98

1.6

63 2.4

52

2.5

77

2.7

48

2.3

70

2.2

58

2.3

91

1.7

51

1.7

29

1.5

55

-3.000

-2.000

-1.000

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

Net Debt

0,3

0

0,3

2

0,2

4

0,2

6

0,3

5

0,0

4

0,1

1 0,1

6 0,2

2

0,4

5

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 1H 20169M

2016 2017Q1

Return on Average Equity

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Balance Sheet Analysis

20

1,72 1,69

1,30

1,64 1,68

1,211,04

0,821,04

1,64 1,59

2,45

1,722,02

0

1

2

3

4

Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)

0,93

0,71

0,52 0,51

0,090,20

0,66

1,07

0,880,70

0,910,75

0,911,09

0,0

0,4

0,8

1,2

1,6

2,0

Receivables (Billion $)

2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,89 2,95

0,50,9

0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6

1,0 1,21,1

0,56 0,633,1

3,7

3,2 3,2 3,33,7 3,6 3,6 3,4

3,9 4,0 4,2

3,45 3,57

0

1

2

3

4

5

Financial Loans (Billion $)

LT Loans ST Loans

3,2

2

3,1

0

3,2

8

3,0

4

2,4

6

1,7

4

1,7

0

1,5

9

1,3

6

1,2

3

1,6

9

1,9

8

2,0

2 2,6

2

0

1

2

3

4

5

Payables (Billion $)

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Tüpraş Balance Sheet

21

Million USD 31.03.2017 31.12.2016 Diff. % Diff.

Current Assets 4.529 3.884 645 17Cash & C. Equivalents 2.017 1.719 298 17

Receivables 1.088 911 177 19Derivatives 10 10 0 5Inventories 1.209 1.025 184 18

Pre-paid expenses 19 28 -9 -33Other Current Assets 186 190 -4 -2

Long Term Assets 4.827 4.987 -160 -3Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 252 264 -12 -4

Fixed Assets 3.224 3.338 -113 -3Derivatives 109 105 4 4

Pre-paid expenses 77 68 9 14Deferred Tax 874 917 -43 -5

Other Long Term Assets 290 296 -6 -2

Total Assets 9.356 8.871 485 5

Short Term Liabilities 4.315 3.597 718 20

Financial Loans 626 556 69 12

Payables 2.619 2.020 599 30

Derivatives 12 8 3 39

Deferred Incomes 1 4 -3 -79

Provisions 31 18 13 70

Other ST Liabilities 1.027 990 37 4

Long Term Liabilities 3.004 2.953 51 2

Financial Loans 2.946 2.892 54 2

Payables & Provisions 56 59 -3 -5

Derivatives 1 1 0 32

Other LT Liabilities 2 2 0 1

Equity 2.013 2.298 -285 -12

Minority Interests 23 22 1 4

Total Liabilities 9.356 8.871 485 5

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FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2017)

22*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,403 mn $

ConsolidatedAssets

ConsolidatedLiabilities

LT Financials: 2,610

RUP Loans: 1,260

Eurobond: 700

Other credits 651

ST Financials 522

• RUP 296

Payables

957

Forward & CFH

1,636

Stock

1.166

Receivables & otherassets

26

Cash

1.242

Million $

-20 million $

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2017 Expectations vs Q1 Results

54,7 55,1

51,6

40

45

50

55

60

17'1 17'2 17'3 17'4 17'5 17'6 17'7 17'8 17'9 17'10 17'11 17'12

Crude Oil Price

68 69

80,7 81,9 84,1

104110,3 111,6

99,7 102109 110,5

106,4

0

40

80

120

0

40

80

120

14'Q1 14'Q2 14'Q3 14'Q4 15'Q1 15'Q2 15'Q3 15'Q4 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1

CDU

• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 $/bbl• In Q1, the average was 53,8 $/bbl

• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2017 - above 100 %• In Q1, 106,4% capacity utilisation was achieved.

Net Tüpraş refinery margin for Q1: 8,65 $/bbl(Target is 5.75 – 6.25 $/bbl)

344

213

32,813,8

0

100

200

300

400

2015 2016 2017 Q1

Tüpraş Ditaş

Planned investments for 2017 - 225 Million dollars

74,9 102,5105,3

106,4

8,7

5,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4

Tupras Net Refinery Margin Med Margin

46,6

Mil. $

Page 24: RESULTS FOR Q1 2017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE · 2016 2017 Key Highlights from Q1 *Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations. 5 EBITDA EBITDA is more than tripled

Future Expectations

Brent PriceEstimation

• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel.

Med Complex Margin

• We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.0 –4.5 dollars per barrel band in 2017.

TüpraşNet Margin

• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 – 6.25 dollars per barrel

Capacity Utilisation

Expectations for 2017;

• Full Capacity Utilization

• Production: approximately 29.2 million tons

• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production

• Total sales: 30.6 million tons

Investment • Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million dollars investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company

management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is

believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may

be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could

cause actual results to differ materially.

Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person

shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.

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Extras

26

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Thank You