APPEAL TRAINING MATERIALS FOR CONTINUING …Programmes (QLIP), (4) Income-Generating Programmes...

APPEAL TRAINING MATERIALS FORCONTINUING EDUCATION PERSONNEL[ATLP-CE]

VOLUME VII

FUTURE-ORIENTED CONTINUING EDUCATION PROGRAMMES

FINAL REPORT

UNESCO PRINCIPAL REGIONAL OFFICE FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFICBangkok, 1994

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FOREWORD

Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All (APPEAL) was launched in 1987

by UNESCO with the aims of promoting literacy and basic learning skills through three

programmes, (1) Eradication of Illiteracy (EOI), (2) Univer-salization of Primary

Education (UPE), and (3) Continuing Education for Development (CED). The concept of

a basic education programme was reinforced and expanded by the World Declaration on

Education for All adopted by the Jomtien Conference held in 1990. This expanded vision

of education will help the people firstly to acquire survival life skills through pre-school

education, primary education and functional literacy programmes. Secondly to acquire

knowledge and skills to improve their quality of life, and attitude and habit of lifelong

learning through continuing education programmes.

The world is going through a process of change which is unprecedented in its

magnitude and implication. This phenomenon is specially noticeable in the Asia-Pacific

Region where the progress is much faster and implications are far more profound.

APPEAL has made a survey of continuing education programmes in various countries.

The survey revealed that the countries were organizing continuing education programmes

under different names such as post-literacy, adult education, and non-formal education.

The Second Meeting for Regional Co-ordination of APPEAL (Bangkok, 1990) decided to

classify continuing education into six categories. These are (1) Post-Literacy

Programmes (PLP), (2) Equivalency Programmes (EP), (3) Quality of Life Improvement

Programmes (QLIP), (4) Income-Generating Programmes (IGP), (5) Individual Interest

Promotion Programmes (IIP), and (6) Future-Oriented Programmes (FOP). Following

the decision UNESCO/PROAP developed the following manuals under the general title of

APPEAL Training Materials for Continuing Education Personnel (ATLP-CE).

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ATLP-CE Volume I : Continuing Education: New

Policies and Directions

ATLP-CE Volume II : Post-Literacy Programmes (PLP)

ATLP-CE Volume III : Equivalency Programmes (EP)

ATLP-CE Volume IV : Quality of Life Improvement

Programmes (QLIP)

ATLP-CE Volume V : Income-Generating Programmes

(IGP)

ATLP-CE Volume VI : Individual Interest Promotion

Programmes (IIP)

ATLP-CE Volume VII : Future-Oriented Programmes

(FOP)

ATLP-CE Volume VIII: A Manual for the Development of

Learning Centres

These volumes have been conceived, developed and written by experts on

continuing education in the countries in the region. Therefore, they have combined theory

and practice into suitable manuals and made them flexible so that each country can adopt

and adapt them according to its situation and needs. These volumes are designed to act

as source material for launching continuing education programmes. UNESCO/PROAP

hopes that each country will develop its own system of continuing education. A number

of Regional and Sub-Regional Workshops are planned to train key personnel who would

be working for continuing education in their countries. ATLP-CE will provide basic

materials for such workshops. I hope the countries will also use them in their national

workshops.

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In the end I would like to express UNESCO's grateful thanks to all the experts

who have contributed to conceptualize, develop and write ATLP-CE. I would like to

request all the experts of continuing education to make suggestion to improve the series

continuously. I firmly believe that in this ever changing panorama practitioners of

education should not be silent spectators but the main actors to induce change in the right

direction.

Hedayat Ahmed

Director, UNESCO/PROAP

C O N T E N T S

Introduction

Chapter One : Principles and Conceptual Framework 1

Chapter Two : Curriculum Framework Part One −Assessing the Present Situation andDeveloping A Future Vision 20

Chapter Three : Curriculum Framework Part Two −Formulating Change Strategies andImplementing the Vision 47

Chapter Four : Organization and Management ofFuture-Oriented Programmes 69

References and Suggested Reading

Annex : List of Participants 91

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INTRODUCTION

Asia-Pacific Programme of Education for All [APPEAL] is comprised of the

following three inter-related programmes, i.e.

1. Eradication of Illiteracy [EOI],

2. Universalization of Primary Education [UPE], and

3. Continuing Education for Development [CED].

APPEAL was born out of the Fifth Regional Conference of Ministers of

Education and Those Responsible for Economic Planning (1985). The World Conference

on Education for All held in Jomtien in 1990 expanded the vision of Education for All and

reinforced the resolve of Member States to provide basic education for all by the turn of

this century.

UNESCO Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (PROAP) has been

working very closely with Member States to develop various learning materials and

training manuals to improve Primary Education and Literacy Programmes under

APPEAL. As a result of success in primary education and literacy, a large number of

adults have became literate. Very few of them however could pursue formal secondary

and tertiary education after acquiring basic education. Therefore a need has arisen to

develop continuing education opportunities outside of the formal education system.

The world is going through a process of change which is unprecedented in its

magnitude and implications. This phenomenon is especially noticeable in the Asia-Pacific

Region where progress is much faster and implications are far more profound. Therefore,

the First meeting for Regional Co-ordination of APPEAL (Bangkok 1988) recommended

to the UNESCO Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (PROAP) that it

develop concepts, methods and materials for different types of continuing education.

Following the recommendation APPEAL made a survey of continuing education

programmes in various countries. The survey revealed that the countries were organizing

continuing education under different names such as post-literacy, adult education,

recurrent education, and so on. The Second meeting for Regional Co-ordination of

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APPEAL (Bangkok, 1990) decided to classify continuing education into six categories.

These are: (1) Post-Literacy Programmes (PLP); (2) Equivalency Programmes (EP); (3)

Quality of Life Improvement Programmes (QLIP); (4) Income-Generating Programmes

(IGP); (5) Individual Interest Promotion Programmes (IIP); and (6) Future-Oriented

Programmes (FOP). In order to develop the professional competency of personnel

working in continuing education, UNESCO has developed the following manuals.

ATLP-CE Volume I : Continuing Education : New Policies and

Directions

ATLP-CE Volume II : Post-Literacy Programmes (PLP)

ATLP-CE Volume III : Equivalency Programmes (EP)

ATLP-CE Volume IV : Quality of Life Improvement Programmes

(QLIP)

ATLP-CE Volume V : Income-Generating Programmes (IGP)

From December 1 to 10, 1993 a Technical Working Group Meeting was held in

Bogor and Jakarta, Indonesia.

The purpose of the meeting was to develop the following two manuals:

ATLP-CE Volume VI : Individual Interest Promotion Programmes

(IIP)

ATLP-CE Volume VII : Future-Oriented Programmes

The Technical Working Group Meeting was participated in by Resource Persons

and Experts from Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Nepal, Republic of Korea and

Thailand (the list of participants is given in the Annex).

The present society is a technological society. Technology is penetrating every

walk of life. Also technology is continually changing. Maintaining and upgrading the

work force in line with the changing technological advances is a big challenge for

education systems. Formal education alone cannot cope with this challenge. Literacy and

Continuing Education Programmes must support, in fact, complement and supplement

formal education programmes to keep the knowledge and skills of the people up to date

and to enable them to remain responsive to changing market conditions. The varying

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needs and interests of the diverse target groups cannot be sustained through programmes

with a focus only on theoretical understanding, upgrading of skills has to be assured.

Future-Oriented Programmes (FOPs) give workers professionals, regional and

national community leaders, villagers, businessman and planners new skills knowledge and

technique to adopt themselves and their organization to growing social and technological

changes.

Volume VII of ATLP-CE on Future-Oriented Programmes deals with principles

and conceptual framework, especially how to assess present situations and develop future

visions. It also reviews change strategies and implementation procedures for achieving a

future vision and how to organize and manage Future-oriented Programmes.

This volume also discusses issues and prospects and the impact of successful

FOPs on human resource development. An attempt has also been made in compiling this

volume to link the programmes to national development plans and priorities and to

strengthen implementation through optimization of resources available in the countries in

Asia and the Pacific.

T.M. Sakya

Co-ordinator "APPEAL"

Principles and conceptual framework

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Chapter One

PRINCIPLES AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

A. Definition

Since all types of continuing education are concerned with aspects of personal

and community development they are to some extent, and in a general way, directed to

the future. Future-Oriented Programmes (FOP), however, are more specific in their

futuristic intent. Under the UNESCO "APPEAL Training Materials for Continuing

Education Personnel" (ATLP-CE) Future-Oriented Programmes are defined as:

Those continuing education programmes which give workers, professionals, regional

and national community leaders, villagers, businessmen and planners new skills,

knowledge and techniques to adapt themselves and their organ-izations to growing

social and technological changes.

This definition implies the following:

1. Since FOP are a component of continuing education this impliesthat under APPEAL they are for literate youth and adults. More specifically,however, they are for those who have key roles to play in the process ofchange.

2. FOPs, therefore, focus on the process of change itself and on helping leaders,planners and others cope with, bring about and respond to effective changesin society.

3. The changes of main concern to FOP are social and technological. Thissuggests that most should relate to development policies which affect societyat large.

4. Specific target clientele include those responsible for initiating, directing,monitoring, responding to and evaluating change in areas of specific socialand technological concern.

5. That the changes involved could be at local, organizational, regional(provincial), national or even international levels.

Future-oriented programmes

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6. The focus should be on the development of new knowledge, skills andtechniques to help in the implementation of effective change.

7. That FOP imply some vision of the future and should aim to facilitate theachievement of that vision.

There are two aspects of FOP. The first is to help participants focus on,

understand and cope with the process of change itself. The second is to help them build a

vision of the future and respond to alternative future scenarios in specific societal and

technological areas relevant to emerging development policies and priorities.

B. Overall Conceptual Framework

Diversity, complexity and rapid change are characteristics of the contemporary

world. Science and technology advance into new areas. Social and economic changes

effect the life style and attitudes of almost all people. In any countries organizations and

communities are undertaking reforms − political, economic, social, administrative and

educational. These reforms aim to prepare and guide the people to face change.

Many scholars, social critics and futurologists are attempting to forecast future

changes. These forecasts are in the form of projections, warnings, predictions and the

development of alternative scenarios. These forecasts, however, are tentative and open

to various interpretations. The future cannot be predicted with certainty. Not many

people could foresee or predict the widespread application of computer technology in daily

life. Very few could anticipate the disastrous effects of AIDS on our society.

On the other hand the future is not unconnected from the present. Constant effort

to reform, plan, innovate and manage are the very foundations of the future. Some of our

dreams and aspirations often influence the course of change, especially if they evolve into

wider societal visions. In this sense the future is a continuum of the past and the present.

Education is one of the most powerful components of such a continuum because

it develops people capable of facing and building the future. The complexity of

contemporary life calls for a diversified and flexible approach in education to meet the

diversity of needs, interest and requirements of the future. Recent history in the Region

has demonstrated a clear causality between education and socio-economic development.


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Since school education is a relatively structured way of providing the basis for

human development, formation of personality, development of knowledges, skills and

values and so on, it is likely that more flexible aspects of continuing life-long education

outside the formal system will be increasingly called upon to face inevitable socio-

economic and organizational change. More specifically it will be non-formal educational

systems and guided informal learning which will be utilized to (i) review knowledge and

skills originally acquired from schooling but rapidly becoming obsolete in the changing

world, (ii) mobilize social participation, and (iii) develop new values needed to cope with

newly emerging problems and issues on a societal level.

The diagram given below in Figure 1.1 attempts to clarify the complex process of

transforming the present into the future. It stresses the place and role of continuing

education in a future oriented context.

An essential element in planning for the future is to have an agreed vision of what

the future should be like. This vision emerges from the reality of the present society and

its environment (Box 1). In describing the present reality the will, wishes and hopes of

those involved should be taken into account together with their aspirations and dreams.

Ethical and moral issues of the day, social trends, human and personal factors, economic

factors and the growing influence and role of science and technology should also be taken

into consideration.

External factors likely to influence the future should also be identified, described

and analyzed (Box 2). In particular those external factors which should be taken into

account in planning for the future include, for example, international trends such as

globalization and the realignment of power blocs,


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Figure 1.1 The process of transforming the present intothe picture

[ The original publication shows tables/figures on this page. ]


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changes in information systems and communications and the need to preserve and protect

the natural environment.

Appropriate indicators of development relevant to the future vision must be

identified (Box 3). Today indicators which are relevant to societal change include extent

of human rights, the degree of effort given to human resource development, the degree of

emphasis given to cultural evolution and a range of indicators of quality of life (see ATLP-

CE Volume IV).

The vision will not be achieved in the absence of effective education (Box 4).

The extent to which citizens have access to and engage in life-long learning is critical in

this regard.

Any vision of the future must take into consideration the policy goals of the nation,

the organization or the community which is formulating this vision (Box 5). For a national

community they could be constitutional, equity related or related to economic, social or

educational development. For a commercial organization or industry they could be related

to resource management, profit or diversification of activities.

Policy goals moderated by external factors influence planning for achievement of

the future vision (Box 6). The planning itself must have a clear strategy, should take into

account relevant legislation, indicate priorities, specify resources and describe a suitable

time frame. The aim of the planning step should be to set clear targets for the

achievement of the future vision and this involves careful projection of current trends.

Any future vision, therefore, is a product of prediction involving forecasting,

prognosis and planning (Box 7). In organizing a future plan the readiness and

preparedness of the nation, community or organization to undertake the change, the timing

of the change and available options and alternatives must be considered (Box 8). The

approach adopted for implementing the plan (Box 9) could be (A) long term, (B)

organized in short intermediate step or (C) a rolling type of implementation. The design of

the plan could be based on inputs from relevant academic research, social and political

forums and so on (Box 10).

The implementors of the change leading to the new vision could be governmental

or non-governmental (Box 11). Indeed the trend in almost all areas of socio-economic

change involves both the governmental and the private sectors. The diagram shows that


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in fact non-government agencies are playing an increasingly important role in most

aspects of planned socio-economic change.

Finally, the diagram shows that life-long learning has a key role in formulating and

achieving a future vision (Box 12). Continuing Education can train those involved to be

effective planners, to have forecasting skills, and to be competent in adapting to and

managing change. Future-Oriented Programmes, therefore, are essential if relevant,

rational, practicable and effective visions of the future are to be formulated and achieved.

C. Alternative Approaches to Developing and Achieving aVision of the Future

There are three possible approaches to facing and managing socio-economic and

organizational change, and CE has a role in each of the ap-proaches. The models are

described and discussed below:

Model I: Drifting evolution without social vision.

In moving from the present to the future an absence of a clear socialvision leads to ad hoc or laissez faire planning. In the absence of agreedgoals, there is likely to be maintenance of the status quo or powerstruggles between agencies of society or elements of an organization. Onthe positive side Continuing Education has the role of raising awarenessof the need for a more rational approach to development, and in trainingchange agents. On the negative side it may become highly fragmentedmaking isolated efforts to cater only for specific interest groups.

Model II: Government limited future orientation

Here the vision of the future emerges only from the public sector withpolicy goals and planning approaches and procedures entirely in the handsof Government. The various inputs, indicators and trends are selectedand controlled by government and the vision which emerges isgovernment inspired and government led. Clearly government sponsoredCE is dominant in this model. CE will concentrate on training changeagents for achieving the government vision and will have a key role inmobilizing community support for and acceptance of the vision.

Model III: Future orientation involving increasing non- governmental and private sector participation

In this approach the inputs come from all sections of the community andthe vision which emerges is a consensus view of the future. The trend is


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towards a broader consideration of alternatives, the emergence ofmultiple policies and goals and the development of flexible legislation. Thecommunity as a whole accepts responsibility for the future vision. Greaterattention is given to caring for minorities and alternative viewpoints andacceptance of greater international role and responsibility is likely. Underthis system the types of CE likely to emerge would be highly varied andflexible. There would be close interaction between government and non-government CE providers and volunteerism would have a key role. Theroles of CE in training change agents would be more diverse and therewould be considerable spontaneity in programming to meet diversifiedinterests. Model III is the emerging trend in the world, and particularly inthe rapidly developing Member States of Asia and the Pacific.

All countries, most communities, and many organizations have to some degree all

the elements of the three models but the characteristics of FOP will vary from situation to

situation according to the proportions of government and non-government involvement. In

the majority of developing countries model II reflects the present situation while countries

with a more open laissez faire economy usually follow Model III.

The role of government will differ under the three models and the approach to

FOP will be different according to these roles. The government plays a more direct and

strong leadership role in advocacy, social mobilization and implementation under Model II

while its role will be that of support, co-ordination, networking and information

dissemination under Model III.

FOP under Model II may be more closely aligned to national goals and aims as

perceived by government with a strong call for participation. Various relevant

government agencies, research and academic institutions and grass roots organizations

may be effectively mobilized under government leadership.

Under Model III many time-consuming processes will be required to reach

consensus. The matching of future oriented requirements with popular or broad range

interest will require considerable climate development through various means such as

utilization of mass media and social forums. The role of the private sector will be much

more prominent and will facilitate widespread action, especially when any change is

considered to be economically feasible affordable and effective.


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D. Trends in Development Relevant to Future-Oriented

Programmes

In designing and presenting FOP it is important to take into account changing

views of the nature of development. In recent years socio-economic development is seen

to be more humanistic in purpose, orientation and procedure. The older model was more

concerned with material aspects of development. These changes in emphasis are

summarized below:

Changing Views of Socio-Economic Development

Old Model - Economic Emphasis New Model - Humanistic Emphasis

1. Emphasis on physical and material resources

2. Naked capitalism or regimented command economics

3. Consumption based

4. Exploitation of nature

5. Centralized approach

6. Top down - power in the hands of a few

7. Emphasis on formal schooling

1. Emphasis on human resources

2. Caring and sharing society

3. Value based

4. Sustainable development

5. Decentralized approach

6. Participatory democracy

7. More open approaches to learning

FOP must help in formulating and achieving visions of the future which reflect

these new views whether the vision is international, for a nation, for a community, for an

organization or for an individual. It is not possible to turn back the clock. The forces

operating in society to view the future in these more open flexible humanistic ways are

inexorable.

E. Dynamic Factors Influencing Change

No one can describe the limits of what the human mind may achieve. Life-long

learning is the process which provides an opportunity for the mind to fulfill its maximum

potential. In planning FOP, therefore, it is important to understand that certain factors can

limit or enhance human mental capacity. These same factors also limit what can be

achieved in the future − they set boundaries to any future scenarios. This idea is

illustrated in Figure 1.2.


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Figure 1.2 Factors influencing the human mind to cope withguide change and limiting visions of the future

These factors affect an individual, a community, an organization, a nation and the

international community as a whole. In developing any vision of the future, therefore, the

present and likely future impact of each of these factors should be assessed. The



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weighing or emphasis given to specific factors and to their interdependence will depend on

the purpose, scope and scale of the future vision and its developmental scenarios.

For example if population is growing rapidly, if there is a low level of per capita

income, if resources are being over exploited, if the environment is being degraded and so

on, then any future scenario about say, the housing situation in the year 2020, must

extrapolate these trends and where possible, plan to minimize their negative impact. FOP

aim to help people identify relevant factors and to plan to minimize negative and maximize

positive aspects.

F. Prospects and Justification for Future-OrientedProgrammes

1. The Expanding Need for Future-Oriented Programmes

As the rate of socio-economic change accelerates so the need for future oriented

CE programmes grows. This is especially the case in areas such as science and

technology, communications, democratization, and the emergence of an open economy.

Countries, communities, organizations and individuals involved in such areas of change

need training in how to plan, guide and manage the changes and to ensure that their future

impact enhances human well-being.

This growth is associated with the growth of continuing education per se. As

more and more individuals accept responsibility for life-long learning and as the society as

a whole develops as a learning society, so the demand for a greater understanding of

future possibilities and alternatives grows. Educated citizens are anxious about the future

− not only for themselves but for their children and grand-children and indeed for human

kind as a whole.

FOP are therefore important for all Member States. Clearly the higher level of

development and the greater the emphasis on life-long learning, the more prevalent the FO

programmes within CE. But countries and communities at lower levels of development

also need effective personnel who can direct change in a positive and relevant way. In

this way development can be accelerated and given appropriate direction. Visions of the

future can emerge which meet the needs of all.

2. Justification for Future-Oriented Programmes


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The most important reason for implementing FOP, therefore, is the need for

effective personnel who can construct appropriate views of the future, and who can plan,

guide and manage the changes necessary to achieve the visions. Such change agents are

needed at all levels of society from village to nation and from small to large organizations.

In regard to the process of change itself several authors have proposed useful

general models. The American sociologist and management expert Ronald G. Havelock

suggests that changes are of two types. They are either purely reflexive responses to

some unexpected or unplanned event (Model A) or they are based on rational problem

solving and planning (Model B). Havelock's models A and B slightly modified are

illustrated below (Figure 1.3). These models apply to change in any societal system such

as an institution, an organization, a com-munity or a nation.

Reflexive Change Rational Change

Figure 1.3 Two models of societal change (modified afterR.G. Havelock, 1973)

Under Havelock's Model A change in any social system is seen to be ad hoc and

spontaneous and not following any overall plan. It is almost like a reflex action in nervous

physiology. Some event occurs which disturbs an otherwise stable situation - a stimulus is

applied. In a school, for example, this may be something as simple as a parent visiting a

school to protest at how grades are awarded to a son or daughter. It may be a situation

where only one class gets low grades. Some follow-up activity then occurs to deal with



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the incident. A teacher/parent meeting may be called or a computer purchased for the

school office. The disturbance is seen as a “one-off" and the solution is also a “one-

off””. The activity has some effect on the situation and the disturbance is either rectified

or remains as a problem. If it remains as a problem, further cycles of change are likely to

occur, but if they follow this pattern the changes will lack any overall direction or plan.

Under Havelock's Model B, social change occurs as a result of more rational

decision-making and a problem solving approach is adopted. As in Model A, a

disturbance occurs but instead of an immediate superficial response being initiated there is

recognition of a basic need and an attempt to analyze the need and express it as a

problem to be solved. This in turn leads to a search for solutions to the problem and a try-

out of alternative solutions (application). If an appropriate solution is found and applied

then the initial disturbance is remedied. If the solution and its application are not

satisfactory the cycle will be repeated.

It should be appreciated that reflexive change (Model A) cannot lead to effective

sustained growth. Change based on a rational problem solving approach (Model B) will

ensure that growth is purposive, sustained and carefully controlled. FOP, therefore should

train people in the problem-solving approach to planned rational change. Such people

become effective agents of change.

According to Havelock, individuals involved in change based on rational problem-

solving can adopt various roles - which roles predominate, and which are most effectively

applied, determine the outcomes of the change. The roles described by Havelock are as

follows.Catalyst: In the first place there are people who in various ways initiatechange. These people behave in a way rather like chemical catalysts inthat they may start a process, slow it down or speed it up. Such peopleoften start off a change sequence by expressing dissatisfaction with asituation or by identifying a problem in any given situation. They stimulateaction.

Solution Givers: A second type of "change-agent" is a person whoprovides immediate answers to a problem. These are "solution-givers".Solution givers may have a deep insight into the nature of any problemand if so, can facilitate change. On the other hand they may offerinappropriate solutions and so unless their ideas are carefully evaluatedand tested they can actually inhibit effective change.


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Resource Linker: A further type of change agent acts as a resourceperson who helps link together the human and non-human resourcesneeded to bring about effective change. These resources includematerials, personnel and finances.

Process Helper: An especially important role in change is to functionas a "process" facilitator. Such people can apply techniques which helpothers identify needs; formulate problems, state objectives, formulatepossible solutions; suggest ways of evaluating the effectiveness ofalternatives and so on. They help people involved in the changeimplement the change rationally and effectively.

Havelock stresses, however, that these roles are not mutually exclusive. One

person may play more than one role at the same time.

FOP, therefore, should aim to train relevant personnel as change agents, focusing

especially on their key roles as process helpers.

Another important justification for FOP is in terms of preparing the community at

large to understand and contribute to changing trends in areas such as employment,

resource management, population, environmental plan-ning, politics and so on. The

community should understand the key role of science and technology in industrial and post

industrial society, the importance of sustainable development and other aspects of the

"new" humanistic approach to development. In order to do this FOP should help

individuals become scientifically literate, to develop marketable skills in the face of a re-

structured workforce with its need for specialized qualifications, to develop social and

political skills to accelerate the process of democratization and so on. These goals can be

achieved within the context of programmes which focus on formulation and achievement

of various visions of the future. An effective FOP enables the community to face and

guide development.

G. Clientele

It follows, therefore, that FOP are intended mainly for those individuals,

communities and organizations which are directly involved in planning for the future. In

particular they should foster the skills of change agents. For example, clientele could

include professionals, politicians, managers, teachers and other community leaders.


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At the level of the individual, courses could be provided which help people in

formulating visions of their own personal future, both in general terms, and in specific

areas of need. Such needs may be to acquire and utilize new skills in say

communications, farming practice or business. They may be in terms of fostering a more

participatory role in social decision-making. They could be to help individuals perceive a

future vision for the community or nation as a whole and to help them anticipate how they

may fully and effectively take part in the newly emerging society based on the vision.

At a community level FOP could foster leadership and facilitate planned change,

either for the society as a whole, or for specific sectors such as transport, education or

industry.

Within an organization such as a business or government agency FOP can help in

solving organizational problems, in determining future directions for development and in

implementing effective strategies for change.

At national level FOP can assist in the formulation and achievement of an holistic

national vision or in planning developments in specific sectors. It can prepare the society

as a whole for facing and guiding change positively, rationally and creatively.

H. Curriculum Framework

The Design of any FOP, or FO CE course should develop knowledge, attitudes,

and skills required to formulate and manage change. An overall framework for an FO CE

curriculum, therefore, should include the following components (Figure 1.4).

------------------

-----------------


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Figure 1.4 A curriculum framework for Future-OrientedProgrammes

Since the aim is to prepare personnel to be effective agents of change the

emphasis in any FOP or FO CE course should be on the development of practical skills in

formulating and achieving a vision of the future.

1. How to Assess the Present Situation

Such a curriculum should firstly deal with the techniques required to assess the

present situation − the starting point of the planned change (Box 1). These techniques

include how to identify, express, and measure relevant base-line indicators and how to

predict what may occur without some kind of rational intervention. Assessing the present

situation also involves identifying con-straints. Such constraints could be in terms of social

values, levels of technical development, societal or organizational accountability, the

characteristics of the political system and aspects of the legal and economic systems.

Change agents must know how to identify and assess likely constraints in each of these

and other relevant categories.

Weaknesses and strengths of the present situation in relation to the planned

change should also be assessed and participants should become familiar with techniques

for identifying and analyzing these factors. They should be familiar with the planning

techniques which could help design activities to maximize the effects of positive forces in

society and in reducing the impact of negative factors.

Change agents should also know how to assess the aspirations of those likely to

be involved in the change. The techniques for this could include social surveys, social

forums, interviews with personnel in organizations and so on.

2. How to Formulate a Vision of the Future

The next set of skills relates to formulation of a future vision (Box 2). This

involves methods for assessing the readiness of an individual, a community, an

organization or a nation to change. Such methods may involve surveys of levels of

education, of social attitudes and of degrees of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the

present situation.


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Visions of the future must be achievable and practicable. Therefore, another set

of skills needed is to identify those competencies necessary to im-plement the change.

This may involve job or task analysis or other techniques for identifying and describing

what must be done and the skills needed for this.

A future vision is based on and emerges from the values of the indi-viduals, the

community, the organization or the nation. Change agents therefore must know how to

identify, analyze and describe these values and how to consider their implications for

formulating the vision.

The formulation of the vision itself also require special skills. These could include

techniques for designing and describing future scenarios and for planning alternatives.

They could also include methods for generating the ideas needed for scenario writing such

as how to organize and utilize the products of "think tanks."

3. How to Formulate Change Strategies

The next group of skills covered by a FO CE curriculum should focus on

formulating the strategies likely to be effective in implementing the change (Box 3).

Participants should be aware of the strategies needed to form an effective team and to

communicate with a wider audience. They should know how to turn "political" will of a

nation or an organization to a more widely accepted "popular" will, or vice versa.

Change agents should also know how to assess the likely implications of any

future vision for the society and its environment, for the economy, for technological

change and so on. They should be skilled in assessing risks and costs and in selecting,

designing and sequencing change strategies. This would include how to design effective

action plans and to determine priorities. Skill in identifying support resources and in

gaining effective leadership and in mobilizing resources is also required.

4. How to Implement the Change

Skills of implementation (Box 4) include how to identify, train and mobilize the

team of change agents who must design and implement the proposed change. The

importance of establishing relevant networks should be stressed and training given in the

procedures involved. Co-ordination tech-niques, monitoring procedures and evaluation

methods all need to be developed. In particular change agents should know how to assess


17

whether or not the vision is being achieved as originally formulated or whether it may

need amendment as implementation proceeds. They should also understand how to

modify their action plans if the programme is falling behind schedule or may require some

change in priority or direction.

5. Overview of the FO CE Curriculum

In summary any FO CE curriculum helps the personnel involved in individual,

organizational or societal change in moving forward from the present to the future in a

planned, organized and rational manner. Participants, however, should understand that the

process of change is open-ended. The implications of any vision of the future cannot be

totally predicted. Scenario building, therefore must be flexible and provision made for a

range of alter-natives and for adjustments to all aspects of the change. This idea is

illustrated in Figure 1.5.


18

Figure 1.5 The open nature of planned change and theneed for flexibility in designing future-orientedcontinuing education.

Chapters Two and Three describe and discuss the curriculum framework in more

detail. Chapter Four reviews how FOP could be organized and implemented.


Assessing the present situation and developing a future vision

19



20

Chapter Two

CURRICULUM FRAMEWORK PART ONEASSESSING THE PRESENT SITUATION AND

DEVELOPING A FUTURE VISION

A. Context on Text of the Curriculum

1. Trends in Change

The process of development creates change. This wind of change is sweeping

across the world. No nation or community or organization is untouched by it. The rate of

change is very fast. Beginning in the 1950's a series of technological revolutions

commenced. Three of these are now making a major impact on society. The first is

based on the technologies of the silicon chip and this has generated the information

revolution based on computers. The second involves the manipulation of the DNA

molecule which has created the biotechnology revolution. The third involves technologies

which have created new advanced industrial materials. These is no reason not to think

that these three technological revolutions will not be joined by others. This is because

innovation and growth in all nations thrives on the strengthening and expansion of science

and technology. This is especially important since natural resources become more scarce

every year and we must seek alternatives.

The dominant trends in change are as follows:

a. The end of the Cold War has led to the gradual emergence of a new world

order to be established by certain interest groups and newly constituted power

blocs.

b. There has been a decay of the old style economy-centered model of

development and the evolution of a human development model. The objective

of the new model is development "of" the people, "by" the people, "for" the

people.


21

c. Advances in science and technology and a growing awareness of the need

for high quality sustainable development are transforming society into

knowledge-based communities.

d. An emerging knowledge-based society is demanding that education assume a

different role from merely transmitting knowledge to showing people to learn

how to learn.

e. The scope and emphasis of education is changing from schooling alone to life-

long learning. In this development, formal and non-formal education and

informal learning are seen as equal partners as components of continuing

education (see ATLP-CE Volume I). It is now envisaged that continuing

education will play a decisive role in enabling society to re-learn and so cope

with and give rational direction to change. Current developmental trends

demand the evolution of an educated learning society.

f. In the field of economics the force of change is alarming. It is crashing

through all geo-political boundaries. Assisted by science and technology the

power of economics is reducing the size of the globe and forcing communities

together through fear of ecological catastrophe.

g. In the Asian Pacific Region many Member States are maintaining a strong

average economic growth of seven per cent per year. With the help of

science, technology and carefully planned social innovation this growth is

likely to be maintained. This is because such growth is self-fulfilling since it

represents a continued improvement in the quality of human resources. A

warning however is that the nature of employment is changing and job

opportunities may be reduced.

h. Development processes are also bringing about changes in management,

production and marketing strategies. The demand for participation in

determining the future in all fields is becoming stronger as society becomes

more open, more caring and more sharing.


22

2. Changes in Emphasis in Development

As discussed in Chapter One there has been a change in the emphasis of

development from an economic centered to a human centered approach. This change

reflects major changes in the value systems of the global society. These changes in

values are listed below:

Changing Global ValuesFrom To

Economic Development Model Human Development Model

1. Destructive.

2. Growth Centered.

3. Uncaring and cold.

4. Reliance on hard technology.

5. Reliance on schooling alone.

6. Focus on natural resources.

7. Material focused.

8. Mass production.

9. Concerned with quantity.

10. Market system exploitive.

11. Nationally focused.

12. Reliance or non-renewable resources.

13. Decision-making system more centralized.

Environment-friendly.

Growth with equity.

Caring and sharing.

Reliance on soft technology.

Reliance on lifelong learning system.

Focus on human resources.

Knowledge focused.

Service and customized production.

Concerned with quality.

Market-system more responsible to the people.

Globally focused.

Reliance on renewable resources.

All systems allow citizens to participate in decision-making

Decision makings system decentralized and democratic. (Participative)

From the table above it is clear that the Development Model of the Future is

human focused. Development of the people means investing more in human capabilities,

whether in education, health or technical skill, so that they can work productively and

creatively. Development for the people means ensuring that the economic growth

generated is distributed widely and fairly so it will improve the quality of life for

everybody. Lastly development by the people carries with it the aim of allowing everyone

to participate actively in the process of development. This component of development


23

demands equal opportunities for productive and remunerative employment through an

efficient market system.

3. Impact of Change on the Countries of Asia and the Pacific

The centre of world economic growth is surely shifting to the Asia-Pacific region.

This trend is clearly expressed by Robert Lloyd George in his book entitled the East West

Pendulum. He argues that the pendulum of history has been visibly swinging towards the

East for the past 40 years. The most obvious indicator of this is economic growth which

has averaged seven per cent per annum in Asia during the past four decades as compared

with three per cent in Western countries (America and Europe). Robert Lloyd George

also argues that "Asian economies will account for more than 50 per cent of the

world's economic production before the end of this century. The equation is simple.

The rapid growth in population, multiplied by the growth in personal income, equals

the economic boom. It also promises political stability. Modern communications

has done much to underpin this economic boom. The Boeing 747, the telephone

and the fax machine have shrunk the Pacific and accelerated trade flows between

Japan and California, Hong Kong and Canada and many other countries".

The impact of high-growth throughout the Asia Pacific region will vary depending

on the capacity of individual countries to cope with change. Some countries have the

capacity to formulate, plan, implement and manage change while others find it hard to

cope with change. Some problems faced by Asia-Pacific are tabulated below.


24

Problems Faced by Countries of Asia and the Pacific Countries

No. Challenge Issues

1. Rapid Technological Change High rate of technological obsolescence andskill deficiency.

Capacity to cope with change.

Impact of technology on socio-culturalvalues.

2. Growing economy of Asia-Pacific region Growth and equity.

3. Availability of scarce resources Allocation of scarce resources.

4. New organizational structures Decentralization versus centralization.

The rise of advocacy.

5. National policies and directives forfuture-oriented continuing education

Co-ordinated and integrated approach.

Marginalization of CE programmes.

For a discussion of these challenges and issues and of their implications for CE,

readers are referred to ATLP-CE Volume IV: Quality of Life Improvement

Programmes Chapter Seven.

B. The Curriculum Framework - A Response to Change (see Figure 1.4)

Change is inevitable in Asia-Pacific. The impact is going to be dramatic since this

Region is becoming the centre of world economic growth. In such a situation it is best to

plan and anticipate change rather than to wait and bare the burden unprepared. While we

cannot deliver the whole future as desired, we can still deliver a fair proportion of it.

The curriculum framework for FOP therefore, is designed to train personnel

responsible for formulating visions of the future and guiding development towards

achievement of these visions. Such a curriculum, describes and discusses the skills

required to be effective agents of change. The first step in this process is to assess the

situation as it is at present, the second is to formulate a vision of the future, the third is to

formulate strategies to bring about the changes required to achieve the vision, and the

fourth is to actually implement the strategies (see Chapter One Figure 1.4). The

remainder of Chapter Two describes the first two of these step. Step three and four are

described in Chapter Three.


25

1. Assessing the Present Situation (Box 1 Figure 1.4)

It has to be remembered that development cannot be planned in a vacuum. It has

to start from and begin within the existing political and cultural milieu, beliefs, doctrines,

economic situation, social mentality and predominant world view. It is important to note

that these determining variables are now quickly changing, and to remember that the

future is a continuum of the present.

The skills needed for assessing the present situation include the following (see

Chapter One):

a. Identifying, expressing and measuring relevant base-line indicators.

b. Predicting what might occur if planned change is not implemented and the

present situation is allowed to evolve without rational intervention.

c. Identifying societal or organizational constraints likely to hold back planned

change and developing techniques to minimize their impact.

d. Identifying and assessing the weaknesses and strengths of the present

situation in relation to the programme of planned change and organizing

approaches to overcome weaknesses and build on strengths.

e. Assessing the aspirations of these likely to be involved in the change.

Each of these skills is discussed below:

i) Base-line Indicators

The best way of describing the present is to use a set of base-line indicators. For

a nation or a community these are usually quality of life or human development indicators.

For an organization the indicators will come from the purpose and objectives of the

organization. For example, if the organization is concerned with manufacturing motor

vehicles indicators could include the numbers of cars currently produced, cost of raw

materials, present profit margins and so on.

Sources of appropriate indicators are tabulated below:

No. Indicators Source

1. Quality of Life Chapter one, Quality of Life


26

2.

3.

Improvement Indicators

Human Development Index

Organizational Indicators

Improvement - Continuing Education

Programme Volume IV.

Human Development Report 1990,

United Nations Development

Programme.

Balance Sheets, Annual Reports,

Business Prospectuses, etc.

Indicators should be as specific as possible and should be measurable. Measures

should be expressed quantitatively wherever possible -- numbers, percentages, ratios, etc.

Qualitative indication should also be included. Many of these may be expressed semi-

quantitatively by means of ratings or other relative expressions.

ii) Predicting What Might Occur Without Intervention

It is important to attempt to try to foresee what may occur to a nation, a

community or an organization if present trends continue without intervention. Several

techniques are available to help in this. Some are highly quantitative, others more

qualitative. Techniques include:

Statistical Extrapolation. Tabulating and graphing past quantitative

trends and extending them mathematically into the future.

Precursor Analogy. Examining other nations, communities, or

organizations which have passed through your present situation at same

time in the past and analyzing their present situation. It is then possible to

infer by analogy that your situation may be like that of the other nation or

community in the future.

Content Analysis. Analyzing available information from mass media,

reports and other sources about present trends and estimating what the

situation may be like in the future.


27

Polls and Surveys. Surveying public opinion, and/or the opinions of

relevant personnel in a community or organization to assess popular belief

about what the future may be like if present trends continue.

Legislative Tracking. Monitoring all relevant government legislation

and assessing its likely impact on the future situation.

These and similar technique allow a picture to emerge of what the situation may

be like if planned change does not occur. This is an important step because it helps

formulate an alternative scenario if planned change were to be introduced. It indicates the

gap to be closed between what will be achieved through unplanned change and what

could be achieved if the change is purposive and well managed. Describing the future

that is likely to emerge in the absence of planned change also provides a timely warning to

all those involved and so motivates people to take a more rational view of the future.

iii) Identifying Constraints

In any community, organization or nation planning to implement a programme of

significant change there are constraints within the present situation which must be taken

into account. The strategies to be developed must be pragmatic. A useful way of

thinking about constraints is through the acronym STAPLE. STAPLE stands for the

variables to be considered − see the following table.


28

S Society - the socio-cultural setting, especially the valuesystem.

T Technology - the technology available presently or the onewhich can be made available in due time.

A Accountability - the delivery system which must be madeaccountable to the responsible authority. Itshould also be responsible to future generationswhen it relates to matters of ecology.

P Political System - in relation to the acceptance and relevance ofthe planned change as a policy.

L Legal Practice - in relation to its enforcement and its relevance tothe mission.

E Economics - especially in terms of availability of resourcesand of the world view likely to be relevant in theforeseeable future.

Each of these variables is relevant no matter what the scale or scope of the

planned change. It is important to identify and anticipate likely barriers. It may be that

certain prejudices exist in societal values - for example poor attitudes towards immigrants

in a situation of high unemployment. If so a public relations campaign may be necessary.

It could be that new technologies are needed before the change can be implemented. If

so some research and development strategies may have to be considered. Possibly

national or local politicians may see some politically undesirable impacts and if so policies

may have to be modified or procedures established to gain political acceptance.

Identifying and responding to such constraints, therefore, is a vitally important aspect of

analyzing the present situation as a first step in the process of building the future.


29

iv) Assessing Present Weaknesses and Strengths

During this phase it is important to be objectively critical of what is present in the

society or organization. The organizational climate whether formal or informal must be

given due attention. All positive and negative values must be listed. Some negative

values, or situations when properly treated can be turned into opportunities. On the other

hand some values and situations can be considered as threats if they can destroy and

obstruct the proposed planned change.

In dealing with this topic the guiding principle is to remember the word SWOT

which stands for:

S

W

O

T

Strengths

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

The identified strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats may be tabulated

and recorded in a chart as show below:

STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES

1

2

3

4

5

6

OPPORTUNITIES THREATS

1

2

3

4

5

6


30

SWOT variables must be taken into consideration when determining strategies

and during actual implementation, especially in the processes of monitoring and evaluation

(see Chapter Three). Since the main purpose of this exercise (SWOT) is to describe

value systems which could enhance or inhibit change, it is a necessary step towards

determining the likelihood of acceptance or rejection by those people likely to be affected

by the change. For example, in an organization such as a business firm, some personnel

may see the change as improving profitability, others may see it as an unnecessary

change in direction; some may see it as a chance for promotion while others may view it

as a threat to their jobs or to their status within the firm. A total picture of such values

reflects the organizational climate and provides guidelines and criteria for selecting optimal

strategies.

Arising from a SWOT analysis is the likelihood of identifying and taking in

account the strongest obstacle to the planned change. Any societal change is designed

for and implemented by the personnel involved whether they be the employees of a

factory, the members of a village community or the citizens of an entire nation. Societal

change involves the dynamic interaction between humankind and nature within a specific

time-frame and at a specific place. Change agents must work on the assumption that

humankind itself is the main enemy of creating a positive vision of the future - it is not

"technology" or "nature". Since the power of the human mind knows no boundaries it is

a force which can be either constructive or destructive. It is important for change agents

to be realistic about this, and to understand that it is the value systems persisting and

operating at a given time in a given community or organization which become central in

determining the future. The values of pre-war Japan led to war. The values of post-war

Japan led to peace and economic prosperity.

It is recognized that if a view of the future proposed by change agents and a view

of the future by those affected by the change are different then there will be a vision gap

and no change for a better future will be possible.

The main obstacle to change identified by SWOT analysis is usually a feeling of

helplessness and hopelessness. This is particularly strong in illiterate and poor societies, or

in organizations facing economic decline. This is a real challenge to the change agent

who must make special efforts to identify and describe specific aspects of such negative

feelings and work to overcome them.


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v) Ensuring Acceptance for Change

It follows from the previous step that a key to successful change is to improve

societal or organizational climate so that values because positive and changes are viewed

as opportunities rather than threats. Feelings of helplessness and hopelessness must be

overcome so that all those involved share a common vision of a better future.

Techniques available for this include the following.

∗ Training in democratic leadership

∗ Fostering participatory decision making

∗ Improving communications

∗ Exploring alternatives

∗ Explaining the likely impact of change with and without intervention

∗ Stressing new opportunities likely to occur under the change

∗ Describing the likely roles of all those involved

∗ Ensuring that those involved "own" the change and do not see it as

something imposed from above

2. Building a Vision of the Future (Box 2 Figure 1.4)

Building a vision of the future involves articulating where we would like to go -- to

make a prophecy. We must act now to eventually realize a desired future. Visioning

involves an account of future life styles and situations based on improvements above and

beyond the situation as it is at present. Achievement of the vision is time bound. It may

be achieved within, say, a few months or years for an organization, or ever many years

for a community or nation. For a country the vision could be expressed in terms of

increased Gross National Product and improvements in quality of life. At the community

level selected quality of life indicators may be targeted. These indicators are discussed in

ATLP-CE Volume IV Quality of Life Improvement Programmes and could involve

aspects of any of the following categories:-

∗ Biological

∗ Social

∗ Economic


32

∗ Humanistic

∗ Environmental

For an organization such as a business firm or manufacturing industry the vision

may be in terms of increased profitability, diversification of output and improved job

opportunities.

The techniques needed to develop effective visions of the future ar therefore an

important part of any FO CE curriculum. They include the following - see Chapter One.

a. Assessing readiness of a nation, community or organization to change.

b. Organizing a "Think Tank" and "Social Forums" for formulating a view of

the future.

c. Building future scenarios and formulating the scope and components of a

future vision.

d. Describing how the vision may affect the future and the changes in values

which may emerge from its implementation.

Each of these techniques is discussed below:

a. Assessing Readiness to Change

Not only should a community, organization or nation be willing to change -- see

"how to ensure acceptance" as discussed above in Section ((1) (v)) -- but it should also have

the capacity to change. This means change agents should find out what resources are

needed and what is available and plan to make up any deficiency. The resources may be

in terms of money, personnel, or physical resources such as infrastructure, buildings,

printed materials and so on. Forward planing is essential here to ensure smooth

implementation of the change.

Readiness to change also involves commitment and a clear understanding of the

changing roles of all those involved. Change agents, therefore, must understand these

roles and explain them carefully to all relevant personnel.

b. Organizing a "Think Tank" and "Social Forums” forFormulating a Future Vision

A key elements in designing any effective future-oriented CE programme is an

acute awareness and commitment to improve the present situation. The desired situation


33

in the foreseeable future is then expressed as a visionary statement. Visioning calls for

initiative and imaginative power of committed individuals. There are two dominant

techniques for this - the use of "Think Tanks" and of “Social Forums".

Think Tanks comprise a group of informed experts from a number of related

socio-economic fields. Wide representation is necessary because any good vision is multi-

dimensional. This group should meet in an informal setting under the guidance of the

change agent. A free flow of ideas should be encouraged using techniques such as

brainstorming, nominal group methods, cross-over discussion groups, role playing and

similar interpersonal techniques. Group methods are effective in harnessing the creative

force of the participants.

The Think Tank approach however represents creative thinking from above and

therefore should be seen as an elitist input. To balance the "top down" approach of the

Think Tank the change agent should also organize social forums to capture the views of

broader groups - the members of a village community, relevant personnel from an

organization or groups representative of the national population as a whole. Here the

methods are more in terms of structured debate and open discussion. This approach

represents a "bottom up" approach and so reflects the democratic will of those involved.

The change agent should carefully analyze and organize the products of both the

think tank and the social forums. Points of difference should be noted and some

compromises reached in the formulation of the future vision. There should be a careful

balance between the elitist views and the views of the larger more representatives groups.

In both approaches the change agent should be careful to prevent the groups from

being restricted by any one type of development model, no matter how impressive it may

be. There is no one ideal model since the situation is always changing -- in particular

culture and values change as a result of the development process itself.

c. Building Future Scenarios and a Vision of the Future

Constructing Development Visions deals with future possibilities. It is to be

remembered that the future is not a single, unidirectional trend, nor is it a void. It has

multiple possibilities. In human society, the conditions underlying multiple futures as

possibilities are in themselves highly varied. The experiences, insights and trends


34

catalyzed by the past and the present, as much as the expectations and aspirations

towards the desired, images of the future, go into the complex range of possibilities which

constitute the future. A planned future is not formed by merely projecting the past and

the present; nor is it only the consequences of present actions. The past and the present

however influence societal awareness to shape and to choose optimum possible

futures.

Since the future is uncertain, nobody would argue that it can be predicted in detail.

Further, there is a plurality of possible futures which could evolve over the course of time.

Yet the future will depend on human choices and actions. Decision makers every time

they make a decision must have a vision whether implicit or explicit, whether short sighted

or long sighted, whether conscious or by default. Futures study provides information on

alternative futures and brings anticipations to bear on present decisions. It also provides a

context in which desirable and achievable paths for a society or organization may be

created.

Different techniques and methods for futures study are available. The choice of

a particular technique will depend on the purpose of the study, the background of the

group undertaking the study, the project budget and the amount of time available to

complete the study. While some techniques are simple and may be used for undertaking

some specific tasks which have immediate return on different aspects of the futures

study, (for example, issue identification, issue analysis, and preliminary analysis) others are

more complex and may involve statistical procedures which give a greater insight into

future possibilities. Some of the more advanced methods provide useful information on

interrelations and interactions among variables helping to understand how new

developments, events, or trends, could affect each other.

Before examining some of the technique available for future studies we should

distinguish between the concepts of "future vision" and "future scenario". By future

vision is meant a broad statement of goal which should clearly describe what the desired

future should be like. Scenario building, on the other hand, is more specific since it aims to

describe one or more future situations which are likely to lead to the achievement of the

vision. Scenarios may be presented as alternative pathways to the achievement of the

vision. Hopefully the vision itself is a relatively fixed goal but it too may need to be

modified as change proceeds.


35

There are no right or wrong techniques and there is no single best method of

generating scenarios or statements of vision. Therefore, there are no hard and fast rules

to link techniques to future problems. However, it is accepted that some techniques are

better than others for helping to describe, anticipate or implement change. A large

number of scenario construction techniques are available, ranging from simple approaches

to complex. The art of scenario and vision formulation is therefore to select the most

appropriate technique at each stage of the process.

The following are some of the techniques which are widely used in future

studies.

♦ Expert Group Meeting Techniques

The techniques here are similar to those for the "Think Tank" approach

discussed above. This expert group however should review the products of the Thank

Tank and Social Forums described in the previous section of the Chapter.

A small group of experts from 5-20 individuals is usually used for generating

ideas. They could be either in a face-to-face environment or in isolation in which each

participant is asked to respond to the same question. In most cases input from all

participants during a first round of discussion is usually the first stage. However, different

approaches are used to arrive at group consensus. Brainstorming and nominal group

techniques are two of the most widely used techniques for scenario and vision

construction.

♦ Delphi Techniques

The Delphi Technique is a multistep process for capturing the subjective

judgement of selected participants in which each participant is asked to respond to each

question by mail questionnaires or through contact sessions. The responses to each

question are classified into groups according to their similarities. Extreme responses are

usually sent back to the participants for their justification. A second round communicates

with the whole group giving the full range of answers to each question including any

justifications. This process can be repeated for a third and possibly fourth round to derive

some satisfactory consensus.

The Delphi Techniques is by far most popular subjective forecasting techniques

and is the most widely used tool for scenario construction. Together with brainstorming


36

and nominal group techniques Delphi provides the core of basic tools for scenario

construction.

♦ Computer Interactions

In most studies, there is a degree of interactions among variables. The

identification of interrelationships helps to understand how new developments, events, or

trends, could affect each other. It is beyond the scope of this manual to describe these

techniques in any detail and change agent may need to consultant professional statisticians

and computer experts for details about methods such as those listed below.

Cross impact computer modelling:

Generation of mathematical scenarios.

Time series analysis:

The collection of information from past measurements of the same

variables at different times applying statistical models to forecast from

mathematical extrapolation of trends.


37

Econometric analysis:

Econometric analysis attempts to explain how mathematical series work,

that is, how change comes about using established economic theory.

Econometric analysis involves a significant degree of complexity in using

statistical methods for determining the function of internal and external

variables using multiple regression analysis.

d. Reporting the Vision and the Scenarios

No idea of the future, however good it may be, is likely to be adopted as policy by

a community, an organization or a country unless it is clearly and attractively presented

and appears to be relevant and appropriate. The best guide in preparing a description of

the vision as a whole and of its related scenarios is to follow an agreed outline prepared in

consultation with the group commissioning the study. This outline should clearly emerge

from an analysis of any available relevant policy statements.

A good presentation will normally highlight the following:

• Background of the problem or issue which stresses assessment of the present

situation, focusing on the indicators previously determined.

• Review of the various causes that have produced the present situation.

• Identification of the main factor or obstacle faced by the planners and

implementators.

• Description of various alternative scenarios highlighting some strong points

of each before making recommending on "one" ideal scenario. The scenarios

should show how the levels and/or quality of present indicators should have

changed over time.

• Clear description of the future vision. This should be expressed in general

terms and be restricted in scope to a statement of main development goals.

• Justifications for each alternative scenario and the final choice. This will

normally be followed by feasibility studies in the following fields:

∗ Economic feasibility;

∗ Political feasibility;

∗ Social feasibility;


38

∗ Administrative feasibility.

In regard to specific scenarios the descriptions should include the following:

• Scope or coverage: This is the range of uncertainty of future possibilities

contained within the scenarios. There are no hard and fast rules for deciding

how many scenarios should be included. Ideally, management would like a

single picture of what will actually happen. This is usually an impossibility and

consequently ranges of scenarios are provided e.g. good to bad, growth to

contraction, increased competition to decreased competition and so on.

• Structure: Approaches to scenario generation may be divided into those in

which the structure is emergent (bottom-up) and those in which the structure

is imposed (top-down).

• Size of the scenario and information requirements: The number of

items and key factors that are included and the subjective information of

participants are two related issues. In some cases the objective is to identify

a small number of key factors, whereas in others, the objective is to introduce

a large number of issues to provide a rich description. The information

sources are usually a combination of published statistics (trends) and

subjective assessments.

• Time period: The most common method is to describe a situation that might

exist at the end of some specified time period, e.g. ten years.

A key outcome of FO CE programmes should be to produce a range of

alternative scenarios relevant to a particular vision in a key area of scientific, technological

or socio-economic development and to consider the possible impact of and responses to

each (see Chapter Three).

e. Examples of Visioning

Without describing them in any detail it may be useful at this point to give four

examples of visionary statements.

E x a m p l e 1 .

A U S T R A L I A


39

In 1978 H. Kahn and other workers at the Hudson Institute prescribed six general

scenarios for the economic development of Australia. These scenarios were as follows:

i) The lucky country scenario (Australia being endowed with resources and

geographical proximity to the world's economically most dynamic area - the

Pacific basin).

ii) The innocent victim scenario (while Australia may embark upon a well

planned and sensible course of action, the world political and economic

climate may not be such as to enable such a future to be realized).

iii) Resource boom/bust scenario (unhealthy playing out of the lucky country

scenario, i.e. while the world economies are generally healthy and vibrant,

resource overdevelopment by Australia outpaces demand, and depresses

commodity prices to an unprofitable level by the late 1980s).

iv) Excessive welfare state scenario (a moderate recession in the early 1980s

followed by a period of slower economic growth in the 1990s and beyond

draws attention to Australia's domestic needs).

v) Failure of success scenario (not only does money not buy happiness, but it

creates as many problems as it solves).


40

vi) Economic preservation scenario (Australia is seen as a uniquely well

endowed country, geographically remote from a troubled world. The

direction of its progress and the composition of its elite, are seen as desirable

elements to be perpetuated into the future).

Each scenario was described in terms of a number of basic indicators: World

economic health, Australia's economic growth, resource and industrial development,

interdependence versus isolationism, foreign investment, domestic political orientation and

ideological climate.

From such scenarios it is possible to formulate a desirable vision of the future. This

could be that by, say the year 2010, Australia has a satisfactory life style with almost

full employment, with the national economy growing at about 7 per cent per annum, a

sharing in the prosperity of the expanding economy of Asia and the Pacific and the

emergence of strong economic links with Asian countries.

E x a m p l e 2 .

M A L A Y S I A - V I S I O N 2 0 2 0

Anticipating an influx of foreign investment, resulting in a greater push for social

economic growth, the Honourable Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir on 28th February

1991 launched an important public policy called Vision 2020. The main objective of

the policy is to transform Malaysia into a fully developed nation economically, politically,

socially, spiritually psychologically and culturally by the year 2020. In the words of the

Prime Minister "(Malaysia) must be fully developed in terms of national unity and

social cohesion, in terms of our economy, in terms of social justice and spiritual

values, national pride and confidence" (pg.(1) Malaysia: The Way Forward.)


41

The country's vision is to have prosperous society with high quality of life for all,

irrespective of race, religion and social status. In terms of Gross Domestic Product

(GDP) Vision 2020 states that a target of 920 billion Ringgit in real terms should be

achieved. Since the GDP for 1990 was 115 billion Ringgit the target requires the

country to increase GDP eight times by the year 2020. This rapid growth will require

the national economy to grow by an average of about 7 per cent annually over the

next 30 years. This is considered to be achievable since the country has a track

record of an average of 7 per cent growth over the past 23 years. To assure that

quality of life improves with increased growth, the government formulates its

budgeting policy by using "growth and equity" principles while special affirmative

action specifically aims to uplift less fortunate groups.

E x a m p l e 3

R E P U B L I C O F K O R E A

In November 1983 the UNESCO Principal Regional Office for Asia and the

Pacific (PROAP); Asian Programme of Educational Innovation for Development

(APEID) held a Regional Meeting in Bangkok on Futures and Education (see

References). The Korean participant was Dr. Hong-Kyoo Byun of the Korean

Educational Development Institute, Seoul. He prepared a vision for a possible Korea in

the 2000s and his statement is reproduced in the box below. It is interesting that even

though the statement was written more than a decade ago it applies equally well today. In

fact the trends identified then (1983) are even more evident now (1994). This is a good

example of how a suitably formulated vision can help focus attention on emerging

developmental trends which provide a framework for effective future planning.


42

Korean in the 2000s is forecast to be, economically, a post-industrial society where the

tertiary industries are emphasized. The society will be achieved with the strong support

of highly developed science and technologies. Information -technology and automation

will be the main characteristics of science and technology developments and the entire

mode of life is expected to be affected. Socially, population growth will still be a most

serious problem, but it is a general expectation that people will be supported by various

welfare policies such as expanded social security, health and nutrition and equitable

distribution systems. These future scenarios are strongly influenced by the political

power and direction which will expect to move forward to a pluralistic democracy

under the situation of balanced modernization. This kind of Korean society will be

achieved satisfactorily, depending on the successful solution of problems to be

confronted such as resource depletion, pollution of nature, food shortage, and other

internal pathological trends.

E x a m p l e 4

T H A I L A N D

This example focuses specifically on the relationship between education and

economic development. In 1991 a Year End Conference on Education Options for the

Future of Thailand was co-sponsored by the Chai Pattana Foundation and the Thailand

Development Research Institute Foundation. A comprehensive report was issued (see

references) and the following extracts are reprinted from pages 1 and 9 of the first

session. They summarize the results of a research study.


43

Almost half of the children who finish primary education in Thailand do not go on to secondary

education. Thailand's gross secondary enrolment ratio is the lowest in ASEAN, and is about

half of what it was in South Korea, when the per capita GDP in South Korea was at Thailand's

current level. In 1990, 83 per cent of Thailand's workforce finished only primary education or

less. The Seventh National Economic and Social Development Plan has set a target to increase

the transition rate of children who finish primary school and go on to secondary school from

about 55 per cent currently to 73 per cent by 1996. However, achieving this target will still imply

that, by the year 2000, 75 per cent of Thailand's workforce will still be composed of those who

finished only primary education or less.

The main impact of the very large share of the labour force with just primary education or below

appears to be on income distribution, at least over the next decade. Education expansion affects

this ratio only very slowly.

Because of this, a strategy to upgrade the knowledge and skills of those already in the labour

force, through non-formal education and training was examined. A strategy to "convert" those

in the labour force with only primary education or less, to improve their capabilities and

productivities so that they can perform almost like someone with formal lower secondary

education was analyzed, and the impact of such a strategy on economic development simulated.

A target was set to "convert" enough primary educated workers to be "transformed" into lower

secondary "equivalent" workers. Altogether, about 7.4 million workers have to be so

"converted" over the next 9 years. The total cost was estimated at about 42,000 million Baht

over the 9 years to the year 2000.

It was shown that the accumulated real GDP gain to the year 2000 made possible by this

strategy is about 123,500 million Baht (at constant prices), or about 3 times the total expenditure

required. This makes the strategy highly cost-effective. Further, the benefit from improved

income distribution was substantial.

These four examples are of visions emerging at the national level but of course

visions can and should be developed for organizations, for communities and even for

individuals.

f. Describing How the Vision May Affect the Future


44

Future visioning and scenario building are becoming increasingly popular tools for

planning and anticipating change at national and organizational levels. With some

adjustments within policy frameworks these technique could also be applied effectively at

community level.

Description and accounts of potential impact of the vision will vary according to

the level of administration involved -- national, organizational or community -- and the level

or stage of development of the situation at the outset of the change. It is possible to

express this idea in a 3 x 3 matrix as follows. This matrix could be used to report overall

features of relevant scenarios or as a framework for reporting potential impact.

The purpose of this type of reporting is to assist those involved in the change to

evaluate any proposed vision and to review its likely affects across a range of agreed

indicators.

Level of Adminis-

tration National level Organizational level Community level

Stage ofDevelopment

Highly-developedsituation

Developing situation

Lowly-developedsituation


45

♦ National Level

Here impact studies should focus on the following categories of indicators.

∗ Human Development

∗ Quality of life improvement

∗ Environment and ecological systems

∗ Social cultural value systems

The vision and the scenarios should reflect national policy and in lowly developed

and developing countries. Government would have a large input. In more highly

developed countries government and private sectors should have an input in partnership

and there should be more flexibility in assessing potential impact.

♦ Organizational Level

For an organization the following types of indicates are important.

∗ Organizational climate

∗ Human development

∗ Quality of Life Improvement

∗ Environment and ecological impact

∗ Social and cultural value systems

∗ Local wisdom

∗ Mobilization of resources

∗ Self-reliance

In a well developed organization the future vision may focus on diversification as

well as increased output and more effective organizational climate. For less well

developed organizations ensuring increased and more efficient output should be stressed.

For least well developed organizations sustainability as well as increased and efficient

output should be key considerations.


46

♦ Community Level

At the community level the following types of indicators are important.

∗ Community infrastructure

∗ Human development

∗ Quality of life improvement

∗ Environment and ecological impact

∗ Social and cultural value systems

∗ Maximum use of local wisdom

∗ Mobilization of resources

∗ Democratic values

∗ Scientific thinking

∗ Mental skills e.g. problems solving

∗ People participation

For communities at a relatively high level of development the vision may be very

specific and scenarios may address only a narrow scope of developmental needs. In less

well developed communities the variables may be broader in scope focusing an improving

quality of life, equity, the quality of the environment and the development of the human

potential. For the poorest communities survival skills and human development indices may

be the focus. For the developing and least developed communities the overall vision and

the related scenarios should clearly reflect national policy and be largely determined by

government. In developed communities the government may be less involved and the

private sector may have a key role.

Analyzing and describing the more general implications of a future vision and its

related scenarios are discussed in Chapter Three.

Formulating change strategies and implementing the vision

47

Chapter Three

CURRICULUM FRAMEWORK PART TWOFORMULATING CHANGE STRATEGIES AND

IMPLEMENTING THE VISION

After a future vision has been formulated and its potential input assessed the next

steps are to formulate change strategies and to plan how to implement the change. The

steps involved in these processes each involve the application of skills and techniques

which must be developed if the change agents involved are to be effective and if the

future vision is to realized.

The steps are as follows and this chapter describes and discusses each in turn.

Formulate Change Strategies (Box 3 Figure 1.4)

• Identify implications of the vision

• Determine risk and cost in terms of social, technical, political, legal and

economic policy

• Identify types of intervention needed

• Identify support and leadership needed

• Marshall the development team and organize other resources

• Organize communication strategies

• Turn "political will" to "popular will" or the reverse

Plan to Implement the Change (Box 4 Figure 1.4)

• Develop an implementation plan

• Mobilize change agents

• Design a system of monitoring and evaluation


48

A. Formulating Change Strategies (Box 3 Figure 1.4)

1. Step 1: Identifying Implications of the Vision

Chapter Two concluded by describing a matrix approach to reporting the likely

impact of a particular vision of the future in terms of an agreed range of indicators. There

are other implications of the vision and its related scenarios which should be taken into

account when planning strategies needed to bring about the change. The purpose is to

identify and generate events and trends likely to influence the vision itself or to flow from

the vision. Techniques include the following:

• Identify events or development trends (variables) which might occur within

the planning time frame which could result in significant positive or negative

consequences.

• Design or estimate a range of values for each of the key variables stated.

• Determine the resulting interactions between these variables.

• Develop a description of the future under these operating conditions.

• Assume that the proposed vision has been achieved by the agreed date.

Repeat the above steps to assess what longer term affects the vision may

have an development.

It is important to attempt to review broad implications so that the vision itself can

be suitably evaluated and moderated. Every attempt should be made to explore not only

its likely impact against specific indicators but also its overall affect on the community, the

organization or the nation. The aim should be to maximize human well-being and if there

are potential hazards or negative side effects these should be anticipated as far as possible

and compensated for in the change strategies. For example there is considerable

evidence to show that financial affluence alone does not necessarily lead to a satisfying or

happy life style. Care must be taken to see that socio-economic development is balanced

and holistic in its purpose and aim.

2. Step 2: Determine Risks and Costs

A refinement of Step 1 is to study the likely flow-on affects from the proposed

change. In any organization, community or nation there is a network of interdependent


49

factors which affect overall levels of development. It is important not only to assess

direct implications of any proposed change but also indirect implications. These could

include social, technical, political, legal and economic factors. While several methods are

available to examine potential flow on affects two are described below:

i) Analysis of the Interactions between Development Policies

This technique involves the mapping of policy formation. The formulation of

policy in one area leads to the need for statements of policies in related areas.

This idea is illustrated in the following diagram (Figure 3.1).

It is clear that policy in one area causes policies to emerge in another and a

complicated network emerges each aspect of which leads to changes in a

range of socio-economic variables. All this has cost implications. The

implementation of policy change in one area cannot be costed alone. It's cost

effects on the implementation of other policies must also be considered This

is true for policies operative within a nation, a community or an organization.

Policy mapping therefore, is an important technique for any change agent.


50

Figure 3.1: The Interdependence of Development Policies-Selected Examples (After Tariq Husain World Bank 1993)



51

ii) Indirect Impact Analysis

Indirect impact analysis is similar to the analysis of policy interaction because

it involves mapping of relationships and affects. For example the impact of

an increased population is to increase the need for more food, buildings and so

on. The need for buildings requires more industry. Increases in industrial

activity call on national resources and may lead to pollution affecting health --

and so on. One impact leads to another. This idea is illustrated below in

Figure 3.2.

Figure 3.2: An Example of Indirect Impact Analysis

As in the case of policy mapping indirect impact studies indicate the extent of

likely flow-on costs, and therefore this technique should be applied in any

programme of planned development. Indirect impact maps also reveal risks

which may otherwise be overlooked. These risks must be anticipated and

strategies designed to minimize their negative affects.



52

3. Step 3: Identify Types of Intervention Required

Having clarified the nature of the change and its likely flow-on effects, including

costs, the next step is to work out the type of intervention needed to bring about the

change. This should be in terms of the roles of potential change agents and also how to

prepare those involved for their roles.

An important function of FOP, therefore, is to show how to prepare personnel

involved in a change for roles as change agents in planning and implementing change, in

developing future scenarios, in implementing action plans to achieve a desired scenario

and to assess its consequential impacts. This training should show how the following roles

could be performed in relation to the planned change in any specific area of development

(see Chapter One).

∗ Catalyst

∗ Solution giver

∗ Resource linker

∗ Process helper

In particular the skills required to be an effective process helper should be

emphasized. These are essentially management skills involving an under-standing of

leadership styles, group dynamics, communications, problem solving, decision making,

conflict resolution, action planning and action research.

These skills should not be developed in abstract but in relation to the specific

development problem, issue or policy under consideration. Hopefully, however, the skills

developed through one FO programme would transfer to other FO programmes or other

real-life situations requiring the effective management of change.

4. Step 4: Identify Support and Leadership Required

Careful analysis is needed of the resources required and type of leadership

needed to achieve any future action. In this regard change agents in the role of resource

linkers are very important. Working out the resources needed may require an up-front

proposal by management. This should then be examined and modified using the following

"round robin" procedure:


53

• Present the list of resources determined by management to a representative

panel.

• Record comments and additional suggestions using a Round-Robin approach -

that is get one or more suggestion from each member of the panel in turn.

• Continue adding to the list until members have exhausted their private lists.

• Discuss each item including likely sources, costs, quality, quantity, utilization,

etc.

• Determine priorities using rank ordering or ratings by individuals and the

group.

Leadership aspects are very important. At national level there should be strong

political will and the formation of a planning team under the guidance of a visionary

creative and democratic leader. At organizational and community level the leadership

should be highly democratic and encourage maximum participation by all those involved in

bringing about the change. To promote the correct type of leadership, change agents as

process helpers have a key role in providing tactful advice, counseling and guidance.

5. Step 5: Marshall the Development Team and Organize Other Resources

The most significant resource is a group of change agents. Determining a vision

of the future and working to achieve it involves team work by all those involved in the

change. This team work can be greatly facilitated by a group of change agents who work

with a national planning team, the personnel of an organization or the citizens of a local

community. Change agents should be skilled and knowledgeable in regard to the

processes of change and about the purpose and characteristics of the vision to be

achieved.

Appropriate change agents may be recruited from within the agency formulating

the vision or from outside. They need to be carefully briefed and be fully sympathetic

with the vision to be achieved.

Suitable change agents are teachers, community leaders, religious leaders,

business managers, planners and other in leadership roles. All change agents should

receive training under a FOP training curriculum of the type described in this manual


54

(Chapters Two and Three).

Reference to Gray D. Kissler in his book The Change Riders suggests that

effective change agents have the following understandings about the system they are

helping to change. Kissler refers mainly to change agents working at the level of an

organization but similar understandings would be needed if visions and scenarios are being

developed at national or community level.

• Vision. This is what the organization imagines or wants to achieve in the

future. It provides a reason for existence and helps assure stability and

continuity of direction. It embodies the goals, values, and characteristics the

organization strives to attain.

• Image. This represents the perceptions that individuals or groups have of the

organization. It is considered a long-term phenomenon, stable and resistant to

change. A goal of any organization's change effort is to determine and align

existing images with the organization's vision of itself in the future.

• Power. The ability to influence the behaviours of others. Power can be

vested in individuals or in groups, and can be real or perceived. Power is

evidenced by an individual's ability to influence the organization's direction.

• Innovation. The process of bringing new problem-solving or value-adding

ideas into use. It can involve trying new business strategies or developing

new products or processes. Innovation is not limited to new technology,

organizational innovation is equally important.

• Style. The pattern of behaviours throughout the organization, often reflective

of its management or leadership.


55

• Risking. The tendency to take chances when the conditions are uncertain.

Since change involves a confrontation with the uncertain or the unknown, the

propensity of organizations and individuals to risk is an indicator of their ability

to change.

Apart from the staff of the agency implementing the change and the team of

trained FOP personnel in the role of change agents the other resources needed to

formulate and achieve the vision of the future include the following:

• relevant planning documents e.g. national five year plans, organizational plans,

community development plans and so on;

• annual reports, especially statistical reports, of the agency undergoing the

change;

• reports from think tanks and social forums;

• social survey data;

• mass media survey data;

• especially commissioned reports on various aspects of the proposed change;

• literature surveys relevant to the area of change;

• financial resources.

One or more members of the change agent team should function as resource

linkers to gather together and organize those resources.

6. Step 6: Organize Communication Strategies

In order for planned change to occur efficiently and effectively all aspects of the

proposed change and of the strategies involved in bringing about the change must be

communicated clearly to (i) all relevant personnel within the agency bringing about the

change and (ii) all people outside the agency who will be affected by the change.


56

Within the agency, whether a national working party, the staff of an organization

or a working team within a specific community, the change agents must ensure a free

flow of information vertically from level to level of management and horizontally within

any one level. Influential personnel who function as "gate-keepers" of information (e.g.

section heads, senior secretaries) should be identified and encouraged to facilitate the

smooth flow of relevant information. Regular progress reports should be produced and

widely circulated to all members of the agency. All personnel should be encouraged to

contribute by critically analyzing what is to happen and what is happening and by making

positive suggestions for improvement.

Effective communication with people outside the agency is vital if the new vision

and its effects are to be widely accepted by those likely to be affected by it whether they

be the citizens of a country, the clients of a business firm or the people living in a local

community. In addition the issues of accountability and participation are important. The

agency bringing about the change is accountable to the people likely to be affected by it

and so must keep them informed of intentions and progress. The vision and its related

scenarios must not be "top-down" only, therefore the agency bringing about the change

must seek ideas and suggestions from those whom the change will affect. This

information sent to those outside the agency represents is much more than just a public

relations exercise. Without effective two-way communication the programme is likely to

fail through ignorance, apathy or even hostility.

Networking is an important aspect of communication, especially between the

agency formulating the new vision and those to be affected by it. In organizing media of

communication between the agency and those outside a mix of communication types is

desirable. This can be illustrated by means of a communication matrix (Figure 3.3).


57

Utilization Production Distribution Reception Feedback

Printed Materials

Radio

Television

Government

Local and private sector

Indigenous media

Figure 3.3: Matrix of Communication Types, and Their Production, Distribution, Reception, and Feedback

Using the above matrix as a basis for design, the agency implementing the change

can establish a communication network which will inform all those to be affected by the

change and which will allow them to feed back messages to the agency concerned to

ensure adequate input from all relevant parties.

7. Step 7: Turn "Political Will" to "Popular Will" or Vice Versa

Once on effective system of communication has been established both within the

agency implementing the change and with elements outside the agency the next step can

be implemented. This is to use the communication system to ensure acceptance and

involvement by all concerned individuals and institutions. In order to achieve acceptance

and commitment, the political will of management -- whether it be of a nation, an

organization or a local community must be converted to "popular" will. Alternatively a

ground-swell of "popular" will must be converted to "political" will -- the desire for

change expressed by community groups or the staff of an organization, for example, must

be accepted and acted upon by the appropriate levels of management.

Empirical evidence shows that any failure on the part of a change agent to

communicate visions of the future to the public or to the relevant bureaucracy will make it

virtually impossible for the vision to be achieved. Three perspectives need to be taken

into consideration:

• Preparing a conceptual framework to describe present realities and the will


58

for change;

• Analyzing the strength of the will to change with estimates of how long the

will may be sustained or be sustainable. This involves describing the intensity

of the will, its likely survival time (short, medium, long), its potential for

spreading to wider groups (local, regional, national, other organizations) and

the nature of the groups expressing the will (e.g. the members of the agency

planning the change, rural adults; city employees, etc.);

• Describing the nature of the will, who is involved and for what reasons, the

goal to be achieved and ideas about how it should be achieved.

The relationships between these perspectives and the processes involved in inter-

converting political and popular will are illustrated on the next page (Figure 3.4).

This step is a key to success. The model is equally important for acceptance

within the agency bringing about the change and for the wider community to be affected

by the change.


59

Figure 3.4: The Process of Turning "Political Will" to "Popular Will" or the Reverse



60

B. Planning to Implement the Change (Box 4 Figure 1.4)

The steps outlined above in Part A of this chapter are planning steps which must

be taken before implementing changes leading to the emergence of the new vision of the

future. What must happen next is to plan strategies for actual implementation of the

change.

There are three steps involved here.

♦ Step 1: Develop an action plan

♦ Step 2: Mobilize the work of change agents

♦ Step 3: Monitor and evaluating the change

Each of these steps is briefly discussed below:

1. Step 1: Develop an Action Plan

If implementation is to be successful all phases of decision making and planning

for a future vision, together with all strategies for achieving the vision, need to be

organized into an action plan. This takes the conventional form of a list of activities with

starting and completion dates specified and with the persons responsible for each activity

nominated. The table could be set out as follows:

Action Plan for Formulating and Achieving A Future Vision

Starting DateCompletion

Date ActivityWhom

Responsible

1. Idenitifying base-line indicators.

2. Collecting data on indicators.

3. Predicting the future without intervention.

4. Identifying constraints.

5. Listing weaknesses and strengths

6. Planning to overcome weaknesses.

7. Assessing aspirations.

8. Assessing readiness to change.

9. Formulating the vision.

10. And so on.


61

As is usual with action plans the table may be converted to a time chart showing

weeks and months horizontally and the time span of all activities as bar graphs with

starting and completion dates clearly indicated.

Ideally a critical path analysis should also be undertaken to ensure that key

milestones are identified and that alternative pathways are anticipated to ensure smooth

implementation.

2. Step 2: Mobilize Change Agents

As explained in part A Sections (4) (5) and (6) of this chapter the organization of

a team of effective change agents to work closely with the personnel of any agency

formulating and planning to achieve a vision of the future is a vital aspect of the process

of change. These change agents should have been trained under a FOP. When it comes

to planning to implement strategies to achieve the vision the roles of change agents must

be carefully defined and their tasks specified. No matter what the level of the vision --

for a nation, for an organization or for a community -- the general skills and processes

outlined in Chapters Two and Three will be needed. In addition however certain aspects

will need to be emphasized for each level if the work of a team of change agents is to be

maximally effective.

i) National Level

At this level the agency most likely to be responsible for formulating the vision is

the government. It would be best if the government established multi-sectoral

teams specifically to plan and implement the change. The team of change agents

trained order FOP who would work with the government, therefore, should also

represent a wide range of interests and should reflect the concerns of the various

sectors of development. In addition they should understand the governments

bureaucratic processes and procedures and be familiar with government policy.

Apart from assisting in the formulation of the vision itself an especially important

role for change agents at this level is to assist government turn its “political will”

into “popular will” (see Figure 3.4). They should help organize media campaigns

and encourage popular participation in formulating and achieving the vision.

ii) Organization Level


62

Formulating and achieving a new vision for an organization involves a team of

intervention experts who have been trained through FOP working closely with the

staff of the organization. The organization could be a government department, a

business firm, a manufacturing company or any other institutions or agency

desiring to change in a planned and rational way.

Essentially to work at the level of an organization change agents must understand

the principles and procedures of organizational development (O.D.). Indeed

many of the principles of O.D. also apply to work at national and/or community

level and so all change agents should understand the principles and procedures

involved. The management theorist G.L. Lippett has defined O.D. as "the

process of initiating, creating, and confronting needed changes so as to

make it possible for organizations to become or remain viable, to adapt to

new conditions, to solve problems, and to learn from experiences..."

The following diagram (Figure 3.5) presents, in summary form, the essential

nature and components of organizational development. It is an adaptation of a

diagram from the U.S. organizational theorists W.L. French and C.H. Bell. The

descriptive notes which follow are from Meyer, Jenkins and Chan (see

references).

Figure 3.5 shows that organization development consists of three essential

operations.

1. The diagnostic component. This involves the continuous collection of

information about the organization as a system. It focuses on the total

system; its subsystems and the processes involved in each. The levels (or

focuses) of diagnostic data collection could be as follows:


63

Figure 3.5: Nature and Components of Organizational Development

(Modified from W.L.French and C.H. Bell 1973)

• the total organizations

• large subsystems - complex and heterogeneous

• small subsystems - simple and relatively homogeneous

• intergroup subsystems

• pairs, or groups of three individuals

2. The action (or intervention) component. This consists of all the activities of

consultants and members of the system designed to improve the functions of

the organization.



64

3. Maintenance of processes of change. This component is concerned with the

maintenance and management of the O.D. process itself. It is important that

the practitioners of O.D. model the techniques being proposed for the

organization - they must practice what they preach.

The eight essential components of effective O.D. identified in Figure 3.5 are

described below:

1. On-going interactive process. Organization development is con-tinuous. It

involves interactive processes at all levels of the organization.

2. Applied behavioural science. O.D. programmes utilize applied aspects of

several behavioural sciences such as social psychology, social anthropology,

sociology, economics and political science. The activities involved essentially

include personality theory, group dynamics and theory of organizations linked

to elements of adult education, theories of change, systems theory and

operations research.

3. Re-education based on group norms as criteria. Organization de-velopments

starts from the characteristics of an organization as they are found at the time

of intervention by a change agent. The members of the organization must

decide on the need for and form of any re-education programme.

Implementation of the re-education programme is the task of the O.D.

practitioner.

4. Systems approach. O.D. views organizations from a systems ap-proach.

The systems approach implies clearly defined objectives, inter-relationships,

logical step-by-step processes, feedback, assess-ment and integration of parts

and elements.

5. Data based-action research. O.D. is based on a systematic collection of data

relevant to the structure and problems of the organization. In O.D.

intervention Action Research usually involves the following steps.

• Preliminary diagnosis

• Data gathering from the organizational groups

• Feedback of data to the groups


65

• Consideration of the data by the organizational groups

• Planning of action steps

• Action to bring about effective change.

Action research is so basic to O.D. that organization development is

sometimes defined as organization improvement through action research.

6. Experience based. O.D. is effective only when based on experience and on

reflection about the experience.

7. Oriented around goals. O.D. is based on setting goals and on the

development and implementation of plans to achieve those goals. O.D.

intervention, therefore, involves training members of the organization in the

skills of setting goals and of planning.

8. Focus on work teams. A fundamental tenet of O.D. is that organizations

work through teams, varied in nature and kind. It follows that the way to

achieve permanent and lasting improvement in the organization is to work to

effect changes in the culture, relationships, processes and ways of operation

within and between teams.

Of course change agents working with an organization must also ensure that the

new vision and its implementation are understood and accepted not only by the

organization but also by those outside the organization who will be effected by it (see

Section 1(6) and (7) of this chapter).

iii) Community Level

At community level the emerging vision may be smaller in scope and have fewer

components than a vision at national level or even at the level of a large

organization such as a large manufacturing company. The team planning and

implementing the changes may be smaller and the number of change agents

needed may be less. The emphasis, however, should be an identifying and

mobilizing local wisdom, ensuring that the vision is relevant to local needs and is

compatible with national goals, and working to ensure acceptance and

commitment by all sections of the community.


66

Many of the principles and techniques appropriate for work within organizations

are also appropriate at community level, especially if the agency for change is a

clearly defined entity such as a village council or a local government body.

The team working with a local community should of course all have been

trained under a FOP but should come mainly from local sources --village or city

leaders, teachers, local professional and business leaders, religious leaders and the

like. The closer they can identify with the community and its aspirations the more

likely it will be that the emerging vision is appropriate and achievable.

3. Step 3: Monitor, Evaluate the Vision, Its Implementation and Its Impact

Finally the change agents involved in formulating and implementing changes

aimed to achieve a new vision of the future should be able to organize strategies to

evaluate the appropriateness of the vision itself, its related scenarios, its implementation

and its impact.

As in any development project there are two aspects to the evaluation. The first is

to monitor and evaluate the processes of change as they occur (formative evaluation).

The second aspect is to assess the overall affect of the vision in bringing about the desired

change in the nation, the organization or the community (summative evaluation).

In regard to ongoing monitoring the following types of factors may need to be

regularly assessed. The list is not exhaustive suggesting only some of the key factors

which could be taken into consideration.

• the existence and changing quality of appropriate administrative structures;

• levels and effectiveness of participation by change agents;

• quality of effort in linking all relevant agencies - governmental and non-

governmental;

• quality of professional support;

• extent of success of fund-raising activities

And so on.


67

Programmes aiming to formulate and achieve new visions of the future are a type

of development project and so can be monitored and evaluated using general procedures

and methods applicable to the management of any project. The individual elements or

factors to be assessed, however, will be specific to the formulation and achievement of

the vision. Examples of these elements and suggested means of assessment are tabulated

below:


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Some Issues to be Assessed during the Monitoringand Evaluation of Projects Aiming to Formulate

and Achieve a Future Vision

Components Examples of Specific Issues Methods

1. Planning the

vision and its

achievement.

2. Programming

the strategies

- Relevance of national

development policy in rela-

tion the future vision

- Strategies and methods for

raising levels of changing

values and awareness of the

vision

- Delivery and organization of

the change

- Design of programme

• Target group oriented

• Programme criteria for all

people involved in the

change established

• Determination and integration

of all elements of the vision

and its scenarios.

- Selection of methods for

achieving change.

Questionnaire to planners.

Document analysis

Social surveys.

Survey of current practice.

Survey of existing and

potential climate for change.

Interviews with clientele.

Access surveys.

Analysis of the effectiveness

of elements.

Survey of changing levels and

needs.


69

Components Examples of Specific Issues Methods

3. Assessing Lower Organizational Case Aspects

4. Assessing physical resources

5. Monitoring personnel and their training

- Appropriateness of organizational structure for achieving the change.

- Degree of co-ordination between all relevant agencies.

- Degree of participation.

- Effectiveness of networking

- Effectiveness of Manage- ment Information System.

- Adequacy of institutional facilities.

- Effectiveness of resource materials.

- Adequacy of financial provision and financial management.

- Categories and numbers of personnel needed for the change.

- Types and quality of training and intervention.

- Access to training for trainers and change agents.

- Overall effectiveness of personnel.

Analysis of effectiveness oforganization.

Critical review of manage-ment system.

Assessment of involvement indecision making.

Study of benefits gained fromthe network.

Analysis of the appropriate-nessand usefulness of data obtained.

Facilities inventory.

Try-out and feedback.

Auditing.

Survey of needs and existingmanpower.

Job analysis

Analysis of interventionstrategies.

Evaluation of procedures.

Survey of training needs andopportunities.

Study of the effectiveness ofpersonnel in fostering thechange.


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Components Examples of Specific Issues Method

6. Evaluating

Lower

Summative

Case Influence

- Effectiveness in increasing

awareness.

- Impact of the new visions e.g.

Improvement in quality of

life and usage of modern

technology.

- Overall improvement in

adapting to social and

technological changes.

Survey of effectiveness.

Life style and attitude survey

for a society.

Productively study

for an organization.

Measured against agreed

socio-economic indicators.

As suggested in the table above, summative aspects should examine the nature

and impact of the future vision. The vision may be successfully achieved but change

agents working towards its achievement should plan how to measure its influence on

those involved - whether this be at national, organizational or community level.

Also it must be appreciated that visioning the future never ends -- it is completely

open. When one vision is achieved another must be formulated and strategies planned for

its achievement and then another and another must follow. The FOP curriculum

described in Chapters Two and Three of this manual aims to develop skilled personnel

capable of working as effective change agents to help society continually move forward

to achieve a better world.

Organization and management of FOP

71

Chapter Four

ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT OFFUTURE-ORIENTED PROGRAMMES (FOP)

A. Management System

1. Introduction

Future-Oriented Programmes (FOP) should be part and parcel of overall

Continuing Education Programmes in all countries. Therefore the infrastructure and

management system for Continuing Education proposed in ATLP-CE Volume I, Chapter

Five should be strengthened and modified according to the needs and situation of a

particular country to promote and conduct Future-Oriented Continuing Education. The

Figure 5.2 in ATLP-CE Volume I has indicated that the National Co-ordination

Committee for Continuing Education (NCCCE) should have links with the National

Planning Agency, R & D Centres, Data Banks, Think Tanks, Commissions for Future and

International Networks. Such links would be very helpful in promoting and strengthening

FOP. Besides these, the NCCCE should have links with industry, commerce and trade

institutions and with higher learning research organizations and the national legislature.

2. Management at National Level

At the national level, the NCCCE should have linkages and co-ordination with

government departments, industry, universities, technological institutions, business firms,

and with NGOs representing various groups such as women, youth, farmers, and

minorities. (Figure 4.1).


72

Figure 4.1: NCCCE Linkages at National Level for the Promotion of FOP

Tasks for the NCCCE in regard to FOP would be as follows:

i) Study global, regional and national trends (strengths, problems, and issues).

ii) Examine and evaluate future studies through a multidisciplinary approach.

iii) Understand national policy, plans, visions and missions.

iv) Undertake technology assessments (examine policy options and decisions

required to capture the benefit of technological development, including

hazards.)

v) Undertake strategic planning.

♦ Specify goals, objectives, stakeholders, environment, resources and

timing.

♦ Specify alternative scenarios and evaluate them.

♦ Suggest an optimal vision or visions for the nation as a whole.

♦ Search for appropriate strategies.

♦ Undertake environmental scanning.

vi) Design organizational cultures which are future responsive.

vii) Develop programmes for institutional learning and leadership training:



73

♦ identify and recruit leaders of groups of change agents;

♦ develop curricula;

♦ produce and compile learning materials including mass media materials;

♦ organize training through seminars, workshops, study-visits and so on;

♦ undertake action research and publicity;

♦ monitor, evaluate and replan programmes.

3. Management at Provincial Level

At the provincial level the PCCCE should have links and co-operation with

provincial level government agencies, semi-government agencies such as autonomous

corporations; industry, business firms, R & D Centres, universities, technical colleges, and

NGOs representing various groups such as women, youth, and minorities (Figure 4.2).

Tasks for the PCCCE in regard to FOP would be as follows:

i) Study global, regional and national trends, (strengths, problem and issues).

ii) Examine and evaluate future studies through a multidisciplinary approach.

iii) Understand national policy, plans, visions and missions.

iv) Understand provincial policy, plans, visions and missions.

v) Undertake technology assessments including identification of potentialhazards.

vi) Undertake strategic planning for the province.

vii) Describe and explain future oriented organizational cultures.


74

Figure 4.2: PCCCE Linkages at Provincial Level for the Promotion of FOP

viii) Design programmes for organizations and leaders.

♦ Mobilize change agents;

♦ Develop appropriate curricula;

♦ Produce and compile learning materials including mass media

materials;

♦ Organize training sessions through seminars, workshops, study-visits,

and so on;

♦ Undertake action research and publicity;

♦ Monitor, evaluate and replan programmes.



75

4. Management at District Level

At the district level the DCCCE should work closely with local government

agencies, semi-government agencies, industry, technical and other colleges, business

communities, farmers associations, and NGOs representing various groups, such as

women, youth, and minorities (Figure 4.3).

Figure 4.3: DCCCE linkages at district level for the promotion of FOP

Tasks for the DCCCE in regard to FOP would be as follows:

i) Study national provincial and district trends (strengths, problems and issues)

ii) Understand and disseminate national, provincial and district policies, plans,

visions and missions

iii) Undertake technology assessment including identification of potential hazards.



76

iv) Undertake strategy planning.

v) Design FOP for organizations and community leaders.

♦ Mobilize change agents;

♦ Promote Learning Centres at village, township and district levels;

♦ Design curricula;

♦ Develop and compile learning materials including mass media materials;

♦ Organize training activities for various clientele groups such as

government officials, business leaders, community leaders, women, youth

and other special group leaders, especially with the aim of training heads

of Learning Centres on how to set up and conduct their FOP activities;

♦ Initiate pilot projects and action research;

♦ Organize exhibitions, campaigns, and other types of publicity;

♦ Monitor, evaluate and replan programmes and activities.

5. Promotion and Management of Learning Centres

Learning Centres are the actual implementors of FOP at local level. They should

work closely with local leaders, schools, NFE programmes, farmers, workers, traders,

women leaders, youth leaders, and NGOs.

The tasks of Learning Centres (LCs) in regard to FOP would be as follows:

i) Study national, provincial, district and local trends (strengths, problems, and

issues)

ii) Understand and promulgate national, provincial and district policies, plans,

visions and missions.


77

Figure 4.4: The Co-ordinating Role of Learning Centres for the Promotion of FOP

iii) Undertake technology assessment including assessment of potential hazards.

iv) Undertake strategic planning.

v) Design FOP and FO CE packages for various target groups, such as farmers,

workers, traders, opinion leaders, women, youth, and special groups.

♦ Mobilize local teams of change agents;

♦ Compile learning materials including mass media materials;

♦ Organize training sessions, through discussion, dialogue, exhibitions,

sharing of experiences, and study-visits;

♦ Monitor, evaluate and replan programme and activities.



78

B. Mobilizing the Work of Change Agents

The aim of FOP is to train a cadre of change agents at national, provincial and

local levels. These change agents should then be able to assist governments,

organizations and communities undertake relevant renewal projects with the aim of

formulating and achieving appropriate visions of the future.

The major functions and roles of such change agents will be diverse and will be

different at the various levels of leadership. Some of these roles are listed below:

1. National Level Roles

Change agents at national level should be able to undertake the following. Their

work could be coordinated by the NCCCE.

i) Integrate Future-Oriented Programmes into the socio-economic development

plan of the country.

ii) Institute research and development for the expansion of Future-Oriented

Programmes.

iii) Formulate policy in regard to Future-Oriented Programmes.

iv) Strengthen the Continuing Education network especially by anticipating future

growth points and identifying and supporting effective change agencies.

v) Encourage development of appropriate technology.

vi) Encourage technology transfer by fostering inter-country linkages.

vii) Assess and upgrade human, institutional and financial resources.

viii) Foster Research and Development (R & D) in technological

development as input into FO Programmes.

ix) Prepare guidelines for generating wider involvement of business, industries,

entrepreneurs and labour organizations in FO Programmes.

x) Promote systematic organizational change and renewal and link this to the FO

Programmes system, and

xi) Develop "think-tanks" for future social and economic growth in relation to

FO Programmes.


79

2. Provincial Level Roles

Change agents at provincial level should be able to carry out the following duties.

Their work could be co-ordinated by the PCCCE.

i) Adapt and integrate all national policies, strategies and plans relevant to FO

CE at the provincial level.

ii) Establish provincial implementing and co-ordinating bodies and committees.

iii) Ensure access to new information by all FO Programmes providers in the

province.

iv) Provide future-oriented training for FO Programmes personnel at the local

level.

v) Develop relevant instructional materials for FO Programmes personnel.

vi) Strengthen vertical and horizontal co-ordination.

vii) Receive and co-ordinate data from local levels about social and technological

trends and about the effectiveness of future oriented CE.

3. Local Level Roles

Change agents at the local level should be able to undertake the following. Their

work could be co-ordinated by the DCCCE and in most cases they should work through

local Learning Centres.

i) Prepare guidelines for local organizational and community growth and

development in regard to future visions and their achievement.

ii) Identify local change agents and encourage their involvement in FO

Programmes.

iii) Encourage self-initiated learning and local management of initiatives in FO

Programmes.

iv) Provide regular training and re-training of local FO Programmes personnel.

v) Develop and adapt learning materials which reflect latest ideas and future

developments.


80

vi) Monitor and evaluate future-oriented FO Programmes activities at the local

level.

Change agent working in the private sector have to stress community involvement

because getting the local community involved and motivated is vital in successfully

implementing FOP. They should do the following:

i) Encourage local people in communities and organizations to monitor their own

progress.

ii) Utilize unexploited resources within the local community (such as the

educated unemployed) as voluntary agents of change.

iii) Encourage local people to form committees and build Learning Centres using

their own labour and local materials cheaply, and

iv) Build on a feeling of togetherness and solidarity brought about by a successful

FOs campaign.

4. Networks for Change Agents

Since FOP are relatively new types of CE for most countries of the Region it is

important that they be supported by appropriate networks. Functional networking for

enhancing the work of change agents is especially important for the following reasons:

i) To exchange information in the form of publications, audio-visual materials

and unpublished materials;

ii) To promote the actual processes of FOP, i.e.; methodologies for

implementing change, evaluation methods and the scientific application of

FOP procedures (see Chapters Two and Three).

Networks of relevant institutions involved in and promoting FOP are also

important. These could include the system of learning centres, relevant government

departments, NGOs and client organizations and agencies. This type of networking is

important for the following reasons:

i) To stress active participation in the work of change agents and FOP.


81

ii) To emphasize communication and co-operation between all relevant

institutions.

iii) To co-ordinate the work of change agents at different levels of authority.

C. Delivery Systems

Future-Oriented Programmes can be delivered by Formal and Non-Formal

Institutions of learning: universities, R & D Centres, professional associations, and cultural

organization. Clientele could be government agencies or institutions, private sector

organizations, development institutions and individuals. Clients who wish to formulate and

achieve visions of the future could go through organizational renewal processes with the

help of FOP organizing agencies. Individuals could attend lectures, conferences,

seminars, study-visits, and so on. Learning experiences could be enhanced, for example

through the following methods:


82

USEFUL INPUTS RESOURCES NEEDED

1. R & D systems

2. Seminars/comparative studies

3. Information networks/communication research

4. Futures study systems

5. Exchange systems

6. Study visits/cross national studies

7. Expositions

8. Computer systems

9. Industrial/commercial training systems

10. Organizational renewal systems

11. Programmes of scientific literacy/ philosophy of science

12. Life planning programmes based on analysis of values and trends

13. Innovation projects

14. Think tanks and social forums

Products of think-tanks and of future studies

Research literature

Products of Science and technology centres

National and organizational planningdocuments

Case study materials

Satellite communication resources

Electronic media resources

Arts and cultural centres and museums

Computers and computer software

Mass media

Annual reports of organizations

Up-to-date books/references

Science fairs and clubs

Simulation and scenario materials

Data banks

Thinkers and their products

Reports of social forums

D. Learning Materials

The types of materials needed for FO training activities include the followings:

♦ Planning and development proposals

♦ Case studies

♦ Simulations and scenario materials

♦ Statistical computer programmes

♦ Training materials on the methodology for studying the future

Participants also should have access to the following types of resources.

♦ Products of "think-tanks" and of future studies

♦ Relevant research literature

♦ Science and technology centres and their products


83

♦ Satellite communication resources

♦ Electronic media resources, computers, and computer software

♦ Arts and cultural centres and their products

♦ Museums and their products

♦ Mass media

♦ Up-to-date books/references relevant to the issue

♦ Science fairs/clubs

The development of the training materials should be by specific materials

production teams under the general supervision of level B CE personnel (see ATLP-CE

Volume I for definition of personnel levels). Each team should comprise the following.

One person could represent more than one area of specialty.

♦ Specialists in the area of development

♦ Personnel experienced in methodologies for future studies

♦ Personnel with a good knowledge of theories and models of change

♦ Preferably one or two people experienced in organizational renewal activities

♦ Personnel with technical expertise in the production of training materials for

adults who have a reasonable standard of general education.

The materials should have the following characteristics:

i) Be sharply focused in regard to the development issue

ii) Be participatory and activity oriented

iii) Promote creative thinking and innovative planning

iv) Set out step-by-step procedures to be followed at each stage of the

programme

v) Encourage self-criticism and critical assessment of products at each output

phase

vi) Be suitable for use by a team.

Whenever a FOP is part of a special organization's renewal activities then many

of the materials cannot be produced in advance and must be developed and applied as

needed. The responsibility for initiating this should be the change agents assigned to the


84

organizations. They should commission materials from relevant materials production

teams, perhaps calling on the personnel of an appropriate local learning centre.

E. Training of Personnel

ATLP-CE (see ATLP-CE Volume I) has identified three types of personnel who

will be working to promote and implement continuing education pro-grammes at various

levels. These are

for Level A : Management Personnel

for Level B : Supervisors and Trainers of Trainers

for Level C : Instructors and Trainers (Teachers)

Level A : Personnel includes

1. Senior Education Planners and Managers

2. Socio-Economic Planning Agency personnel including manpowerplanners

3. Heads of Universities, Technological Institutions, R & D Centres

4. Leaders in Industries and Businesses

5. NGO Leaders

Level B : Personnel includes

1. Provincial and district level supervisors

2. Trainers of trainers

3. Resources developers

4. Field consultants

5. Counsellors and guidance officers

6. Teachers and instructors in the universities, colleges, especially dealingwith technology and information

7. Instructors and training personnel in industries and business firms.

8. Local leaders including NGO leaders

9. Others concerned with FOP

Level C : Personnel includes

1. Learning Centre management personnel

2. Field consultants

3. Local guidance and counselling officers


85

4. All types of providers especially technical school teachers working in both

formal and non-formal institutions, education or-ganizations.

5. Facilitators

6. Monitors

7. Professionals

8. Progressive farmers

9. Workshop supervisors

10. Managers within organizations

11. Community leaders

Broad guideline for organizing training programmes for Level A, B and C

personnel are given in ATLP-CE Volume I Chapter Nine. The following topics would

however be of special importance for FOP personnel

♦ General principles of management

♦ Project management

♦ Development theory

♦ Models of change

♦ Scenario building and visioning the future

♦ Modelling and simulation

♦ Methodologies for future studies

♦ Principles of organizational renewal

♦ Characteristics of change agents and their roles

Level B personnel should be responsible for the training under policy guidelines

developed by Level A. But as aspects of this training are rather specialized some training

may have to be prepared and presented by specialists employed under contract.

The training at all levels should aim mainly to develop the skills of process helper

change agents.

F. Monitoring and Evaluation

The concepts and objectives of monitoring and evaluation (M & E) are given in

ATLP-CE Volume I and other volumes. Evaluation of FOP is needed both at project

level and at individual-learner's level.


86

1. Project Level EvaluationThe stages of monitoring and evaluation at project level are illustrated by the

following diagram (Figure 4.5).

As in other projects, M & E for FOP should be conducted in three stages:

♦ Stage One : Pre-implementation (benchmark survey)

♦ Stage Two : On-going Assessment (monitoring)

♦ Stage Three : Assessment of Project Performance (mid-termand/or final evaluation)

The M & E stages are summarized in Figure 4.5 on the next page:

For an explanation of the figure readers are referred to ATLP-CE Volume IV -

Chapter Six. The emphasis in evaluating FOP, however, should be on the appropriateness

and likely impact of any visions of the future which may be formulated under the

programme.

2. Individual Evaluation

The work of individuals who have been trained as change agents under FOP

and/or who have worked with change agents in establishing and achieving future visions

may need to be assessed and evaluated for various purposes. An organization may wish

to have evidence for promotion, a community may need to assess contributions made by

individuals, and so on.

From an individual participants point of view, too, some recognition may be

required in the form of accreditation. There could be an Accreditation Board at national

and sub-national levels to establish standards and criteria to evaluate achievement in both

theoretical and practical FOP. They may be supplemented by awards from the

organizations and institutions providing FOP according to changing needs and situations.


87

Figure 4.5: Stages in Monitoring and Evaluation of a Future-Oriented Programmes



88

REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING

A. Future Visions

Boshier, R. Adult Education: Issues of the Future Examining Controversies in AdultEducation, San Francisco, Jossey Bass, 1981.

Brockett, R. Continuing Education in the year 2000, San Francisco, Jossey Bass,1987.

Caranfil, A. Kahn, H. and Ruggles, R.L. The Future of Australia: Scenario andIssues. Hudson Institute, H1-2823-BN, 1978.

Das Debendra K. Structural Adjustment in the Indian Economy, (Part I and II). NewDelhi, Deep & Deep.

De Jouvenel, H. "Prospective for a New Citizenship” Futures, April, 1986.

Drucker, Peter F. New Realities. London, Octopus, 1989.

Drucker, Peter F. Post Capitalist Society, Oxford Butterword-Heinemann, 1993.

Huntington Samuel P. "The Clash of Civilizations" Foreign Affairs, Volume 72, No. 3,Summer 1993, pp. 22-49.

Husain, Tariq. Development Issues and the World Bank Keynote Address at theInternational Conference of the Association of Canadian Universities in OttawaApril 1993. Washington D.C., The World Bank, 1993.

Naisbitt, John and Patricia. Mega Trends 2000. Under Pan Books Ltd., London, 1990.

Ohmae, Kenichi. The Borderless World. London, Fontana, 1991.

Simmonds W.H. Clive. The Nature of Future Problems, Futures Research - NewDirection. Addison Wesley 1991.

Toffler Alvin. Power Shift. London: Bantam, 1992.

Toffler Alvin. The Third Wave. London: Bantam, 1980.

UNEP. Action for the Future, Nairobi, United Nations Environment Programme, UNEPInformation and Public Affairs, 1988.

References and suggested reading

89

UNESCO/APEID. Future and Education, Bangkok, UNESCO Regional Office forEducation in Asia and the Pacific, 1984.

United Nations. The Nairobi Forward - Looking Strategies for the Advancement ofWomen, Nairobi, Kenya, 15-26 July 1985.

Wardrop J. and others. The Economic Future of the Asian Region in the Year 2000.A Review of Bibliography of the Literature, Bureau of Studies and Programming(BEP), Paris: UNESCO, 1980.

B. Methods for Studying the Future

Chul, Kim Young. Development Strategies in Education Towards the FutureIndustrial Societies. Seoul; Korean Educational Development Institute, Republic ofKorea, 1988.

French, W.L. and Bell, C.H. Organization Development Behavioural ScienceInterventions for Organization Improvement. Englewood Cliffs New Jersey:Prentice Hall.

Government of India. Education for All. The Indian Scene, Department of Education,New Delhi, India, 1993.

Havelock, R.G. The Change Agents Guide to Innovation in Education, EnglewoodCliffs, New Jersey, 1973.

Kissler, Gray D. The Change Rider, Reading Mass, 1991.

Lippett, G.L. Organization Renewal New York; Appleten Century.

Majaro, Simon. The Creative Marketer, Oxford: Butterworth - Heinemann 1991.

Meyer, G.R., Jarkins, C. and Chan E. A First Introduction to the Principles ofOrganizational Development in Education (CAT Minicourse M52). Sydney:Macquarie University, Centre for the Advancement of Teaching, 1978.

Mitchell, R.B. & Others. “Structuring the Future-Applications of a Scenario - GenerationProcedure" Technological Forecasting and Social Change 1979 No. 14.

Tydeman J. Futures Methodologies Handbook, Commission for the Future,Melbourne, Australian Commission for the Future, Limited, N.D.

UNDP. Human Development Report, New York, Oxford University Press, 1993.


90

C. Education and the Future

Didsbury, H. Jr. (Ed). Communication and the Future, Bethesda, MP, World FutureSociety, 1982.

Duk-Choong Kim. Asian Education for the Twenty-First Century. Bangkok,UNESCO/PROAP, 1990 (APEID).

Ellyard Peter. Education for the 21th Century, Bangkok, UNESCO/PROAP, 1990(APEID).

Josefinar, R. Cartes. Education and National Development: The PhilippinesExperiences and Future Possibilities, Quezon City, University of the Philippines,1987.

Singh, Raja Roy. Education for Twenty-First Century. Asia Pacific Perspective.Bangkok, UNESCO/PROAP, 1991.

Suppes, P. "Future of Computers in Education" Journal of Computer BasedInstruction, 1987.

Thailand Development Research Institute Foundation. Education Options for theFuture of Thailand, (Vol. I & II), Ambassador City, Jomtien, Chon Buri, Bangkok1991.

Thailand Development Research Institute Foundation. Education Options for theFuture of Thailand, Synthesis Report. Ambassador City, Jomtien, Chon Buri,Bangkok, 14-15 December 1991.

UNESCO. Institute for Education. The Future of Literacy and the Literacy of theFuture, Report of the Seminar on Adult Literacy in Industrialized Countries,Hamburg, (UIE), 4-7 December 1991.

Wasi, Prawase. Education for the Future, Bangkok, UNESCO/PROAP, 1990.

Annex

91

Annex

LIST OF PARTICIPANTS

Experts/Resource Persons

Australia Dr. G. Rex MeyerEducational ConsultantP.O. Box 154(171 Copeland Road)Beecroft NSW 2119Tel. (61-2) 484-1597Fax: (61-2) 875 3638

Indonesia Dr. W.P. NapitupuluExecutive ChairmanIndonesian National Commission for UNESCOMinistry of Education and CultureJalan Jenderal Sudirman - SenayanJakarta 10270Tel. (62-21) 5711144-5, 5733127Fax: (62-21) 5733127, 5738181

Dr. SoedijartoDirector-GeneralOut-of-School Education, Youth and SportsMinistry of Education and CultureJalan Proklamasi 17aJakartaTel. (62-21) 314-2635Fax: (62-21) 326-294

Japan Mr. Akihiro ChibaProfessor of EducationInternational Christian University10-2 Osawa, 3-chome Mitaka-shi181 TokyoTel. 0422-33-3143


92

Fax: 0422-34-6982Malaysia Mr. Hoesne bin Hussain

Planning DivisionMinistry of Rural DevelopmentTingkat 5-10Bangunan Komplek Kewangan Jalan Raja Chulan50606 Kuala LumpurTel. 03-2612622Fax: 03-2611339

Nepal Dr. Uttam Krishna KarmacharyaAssociate ProfessorFaculty of EducationTribhuvan UniversityKathmanduTel. 977-1 610680 (Res.)Fax: 977-1 412460 (Off.)

Korea (Rep. of) Dr. Zunsang HanProfessorDepartment of EducationYonsei University134, Shinchon-dongSeodaemoon-kuSeoulTel. (82-2) 361-2110; 393-3395Fax: (82-2) 393-1304

Thailand Dr. Boonlert MasangSenior Specialist in Curriculum DevelopmentNon-formal Education DepartmentMinistry of EducationBangkok 10300Tel. (66-2) 2820854 Ext. 602 2822868Fax: (66-2) 2801688

Annex

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Experts

Indonesia Prof. Dr. Conny S. SemiawanJl. Brawijaya viii/32

Kebayoran BaruJakarta SelatanTel. (62-21) 4897855 (Off.) (62-21) 7203806 (Res.)

Prof. Dr. Bana G. KartasasmitaChairman, Institute for Community Development ServiceInstitute Teknologi BandungJl. Surapati No. 3BandungTel. (62-22) 2501759Fax: (62-22) 2504010

Prof. Dr. Harsja W. BachtiarUniversity of IndonesiaJl. Daksinapati Raya No. 1RawamangunJakarta TimurTel. 962-22) 489 1441 (Off.)

Prof. Dr. H.A.R. TilaarProfessor of Education, IKIPChairman, Institute of Educational Management Development(LPMP-IKIP Jakarta)Jl. Patra Kuningan UtaraBlok L VII No. 4Jakarta PusatTel. (62-21) 4897437 (Off.) (62-21) 5206253 (Res.)

Dr. Hafid AbbasHead of Research CentreInstitute of Teacher Training and Education (IKIP)Kompleks IKIP RawamangunJakarta TimurTel. (62-21) 489 0856Fax: (62-21) 489 3854


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Mr. Sudrajat RasiidHead of Sub-Directorate on Potential Community ResourcesDirectorate of Community of EducationJl. Kramat Raya No. 114Jakarta PusatTel. (62-21) 3909043

Observer Ms. Hasnah GasimJl. Kramat Raya No. 114Jakarta Pusat, IndonesiaTel.: (62-21) 3909043

Secretariat UNESCO Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (PROAP)920 Sukhumvit Road

, Bangkok 10110, ThailandTel. 3910686, 3910703, 3910815Fax: (66-2) 391-0866Cable: UNESCO BANGKOKTelex: 20591TH

Mr. T.M. SakyaEducational Adviser and Co-ordinator "APPEAL"

Ms. Wallapa AramwithaSecretary

Local Organizers

Indonesian National Commission for UNESCO, Jakarta

Mr. Moch Afieq Ms. Dwi AtminiMr. Joko Pratomo Mr. Slamet RahayuMr. Yoyo Bagyo Mr. SudiroMr. Fuad Wiyono Mr. Umardhani

APPEAL TRAINING MATERIALS FOR CONTINUING …Programmes (QLIP), (4) Income-Generating Programmes...

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