Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015 2025

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Transcript of Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015 2025

Page 1: Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015 2025

©noticeThis material is copyright by visiongain. It is against the law to reproduce any of this material without the prior written agreement of visiongain. You cannot photocopy, fax, download to database or duplicate in any other way any of the material contained in this report. Each purchase and single copy is for personal use only.

Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects

2015-2025

Page 2: Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015 2025

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Contents

1. Report Overview 

1.1 Overview of Findings 

1.2 Why You Should Read This Report 

1.3 How This Report Delivers 

1.4 Main Questions Answered by This Analysis 

1.5 Who is This Study For? 

1.6 Research and Analysis Methods 

1.7 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 

1.8 Some Associated Reports

1.9 About Visiongain

2. Introduction to Antibacterial Drugs 2.1 Types of Bacterial Infection 

2.2 Main Bacteria Causing Infections in Human Beings  

2.3 Incidence and Mortality Profiles for Common Bacterial Infection 

2.4 Treating Infections 

2.4.1 The History of Antibacterial Drug Development 

2.4.2 Mechanisms of Action 

2.4.3 Leading Classes of Antibacterial Medicines 

2.4.3.1 Cephalosporins 

2.4.3.2 Penicillins 

2.4.3.3 Carbapenems 

2.4.3.4 Fluoroquinolones 

2.4.3.5 Macrolides 

2.4.4 Antibacterial Drug Resistance 

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3. Antibacterial Drugs: World Market, 2015-2025 

3.1 Antibacterials’ Revenues Plateau between 2009 and 2013 

3.2 Antibacterial Agents - Market Segmentation 

3.3 Antibiotics Market Forecast, 2015-2025: Decline in Revenues for Fluoroquinolones 

3.4 Drivers and Restraints in the Antibacterials Market, 2015-2025 

3.5 Generic Erosion and Prescription Control will Limit Market Growth 

3.6 Changes in that Industry Sector’s Market Shares, 2015-2025 

3.7 Pfizer is the Leader in the Antibacterial Drugs Market 

3.8 Fragmented Market to Fracture Further 

4. Cephalosporins Market Forecast, 2015-2025 

4.1 Cephalosporins Market 2013-2014 – No Dominant Brands 

4.1.1 Late-Stage Cephalosporins to Gain Market Share Between 2015 and 2025 

4.1.2 Basilea, Merck, Actavis and AstraZeneca to Lead Cephalosporin Market Between

2015 and 2025 

4.1.3 Drivers and Restraints on the Cephalosporins Market, 2015-2025 

4.1.4 Cephalosporins Lack Market Exclusivity 

4.1.5 Strong Pipeline for Novel Cephalosporins 

4.1.6 Rocephin (Roche) – The Only Treatment for Gonorrhoea in the US 

4.1.6.1 Off Patent but Still Effective 

4.1.6.2 Declining Revenues Owing to Competition - Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.7 Sulperazon – India’s Leading Treatment for RTIs and UTIs 

4.1.7.1 Continued Growth in the Emerging Markets, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.8 Zinnat/Ceftin – GSK’s Established Cephalosporin 

4.1.8.1 Continued Decline in Revenue - Forecast 2015-2025 

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4.1.9 Meiact – A Broad Range Community Antibiotic 

4.1.9.1 Spectracef Sales in the US Leads to Pass the Product 

4.1.9.2 Competition in Japan to Hinder Growth – Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.10 Flomox - Shionogi’s Third-Generation Cephalosporin 

4.1.10.1 Patent Issues and Litigation 

4.1.10.2 Genericisation and Safety to Restrict Sales - Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.11 Zinforo/Teflaro (Ceftaroline Fosamil): The First of the Fifth- Generation

Cephalosporins 

4.1.11.1 Unmet Needs in Pneumonia to Drive Growth - Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.12 Zeftera (ceftobiprole): Approved for Pneumonia in Europe 

4.1.12.1 Future Sales Dictated by US Approval - Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

4.1.13 CXA-201 (Ceftolozane-Tazobactam): The Next Blockbuster Antibacterial 

4.1.13.1 Broad Label and Spectrum of Activity Leads to Rapid Uptake - Revenue Forecast

2015-2025 

4.1.14 CAZ-AVI (Ceftazidime-Avibactam): Approved in 2015 

4.1.14.1 Competition from CXA-201 to Limit Sales - Forecast 2015-2025 

5. Penicillins Market Forecast, 2015-2025 5.1 Generics and Augmentin Dominate the Penicillins Market in 2013 and 2014 

5.2 Augmentin to Lose its Dominance over the Coming 10 Years - Market Shares for Penicillin

Drugs, 2015-2025 

5.3 Penicillin Antibacterials: Market Forecast 2015-2025 

5.4 Drivers and Restraints for the Penicillin Market 2015-2025 

5.5 Augmentin – Blockbuster Facing Generic Competition 

5.5.1 Augmentin – Challenges in Some Countries  

5.5.2 Stable Revenues in Spite of Generic Competition 

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5.5.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

5.6 Zosyn/Tazocin (Piperacillin-Tazobactam) - Pneumonia Therapeutic 

5.6.1 Patent Expiry and Revenue Extension for Pfizer 

5.6.2 Historic and Current Revenue Performance 

5.6.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

5.7 Unasyn – Gram-negative and Positive Antibiotic 

5.7.1 Falling Revenues - Forecast 2015-2025 

5.8 Amoxil (Amoxicillin) – A Historic Antibacterial Brand 

5.8.1 Marginal Decline in Revenue - Forecast 2015-2025 

5.9 Generic Amoxicillin 

5.9.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

5.10 Generic Amoxicillin-Clavulanic Acid 

5.10.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6. Fluoroquinolone Market Forecast, 2015-2025 

6.1 The Fluoroquinolone Market 2013-2014 

6.2 Changing Market Share for Fluoroquinolone Antibacterials, 2015-2025 

6.3 Fluoroquinolone Antibacterial Drugs: Market Forecast 2015-2025 

6.4 Trends in the Fluoroquinolone Market 

6.4.1 Safety Fears for Fluoroquinolones 

6.4.2 Avelox Patent Cliff 

6.4.3 Inhaled Fluoroquinolone Formulations 

6.5 Fluoroquinolone Market Forecast 2015-2025 

6.6 Avelox 

6.6.1 Safety Profile Hampers Sales 

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6.6.2 Generic Competition 

6.6.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6.7 Cravit and Levaquin 

6.7.1 Generic Competition Affecting Revenue Worldwide 

6.7.2 Lifecycle Management for Cravit and Levaquin 

6.7.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6.8 Vigamox 

6.8.1 Branded and Generic Challenges 2010-2013 

6.8.2 Moxeza: A Next-Generation Form of Vigamox 

6.8.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6.9 Cirpodex and Cipro – Two Preparations of Ciprofloxacin 

6.9.1 Ciprodex: A Second-Generation Ophthalmic Antibiotic 

6.9.1.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6.9.2 Cipro Revenue Forecast 2015-2025: Continued Generic Erosion 

6.10 Geninax 

6.10.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

6.11 Delafloxacin 

6.11.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

7. Macrolide Market Forecast, 2015-2025 7.1 Macrolide Market in 2013-2014 

7.2 Changing Market Share for Macrolides, 2015-2025 

7.3 Macrolide Antibacterials: Market Forecast 2015-2025 

7.4 Trends in the Macrolide Market 

7.5 Biaxin/Clarith 

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7.5.1 Revenue 2013-2014 

7.5.2 Lifecycle Management for Continued Market Presence 

7.5.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

7.6 Zithromax 

7.6.1 Concerns Over Safety and Marketing in the US 

7.6.2 Effectiveness in Drug-Resistant Strains 

7.6.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

7.7 Dalacin 

7.7.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

7.8 Dificid 

7.8.1 Rapid Uptake Slowed by High Cost 

7.8.2 New Approvals and Expanded Indications 

7.8.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

7.9 Solithromycin 

7.9.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

8. Carbapenem Market Forecast, 2015-2025 

8.1 Carbapenem Market 2013-2014 

8.2 Changing Market Share for Carbapenems, 2015-2025 

8.3 Carbapenem Market Forecast, 2015-2025 

8.4 Trends in the Carbapenem Market 

8.4.1 Rising Prevalence of Carbapenemases and β-Lactamases 

8.4.2 No New Carbapenems in Late-Stage Trials 

8.5 Merrem/Meropenem 

8.5.1 Generics Affecting Revenue Worldwide 

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8.5.2 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

8.6 Primaxin 

8.6.1 Combination Therapy for Lifecycle Management 

8.6.2 Historic and Current Revenues 

8.6.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

8.7 Invanz 

8.7.1 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

8.8 Doribax 

8.8.1 Doribax in HAP and VAP 

8.8.2 Lifecycle Management in Japan and the Rest of the World 

8.8.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9. Other Antibiotic Drugs Forecast, 2015-2025 9.1 The Market for Other Classes of Antibacterial Drugs 

9.2 Changing Market Share for Fluoroquinolone Antibacterials 2015-2025 

9.3 Other Antibacterials: Market Forecast, 2015-2025 

9.4 Trends in the Other Classes of Antibacterial Drugs 

9.4.1 New Oxazolidinones Will Drive Growth 

9.4.2 New Drug Classes to Drive Submarket Growth to 2025 

9.5 Zyvox – The Market Leading Antibacterial 

9.5.1 MRSA Activity Driving Revenue Growth 

9.5.2 Promise in Tuberculosis and Anthrax 

9.5.3 Patents, Litigation, and Competition – When and Who Will Produce Generic

Linezolid? 

9.5.4 Flat Growth to Patent Expiry, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

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9.6 Cubicin – The Leading Brand for ABSSSIs 

9.6.1 Revenue Boosted by Approvals Worldwide 

9.6.2 Patents, Litigation and Deals – How Long Will Market Exclusivity Last? 

9.6.3 Sustained Growth through to 2019, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.7 Tygacil – A Tetracycline With Many Approved Indications 

9.7.1 Concerns Limiting Revenue Potential 

9.7.2 Competition from OtherTherapies Restricts Growth: Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.8 TOBI/TOBI Podhaler – The Market Leading Inhaler for Cystic Fibrosis 

9.8.1 Historic and Current Revenue Performance 

9.8.2 Approvals and Launches in New Markets to Drive Revenue Growth 

9.8.3 Competition to Limit Long-term Growth, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.9 Solodyn – A Treatment for Severe Acne 

9.9.1 Generic Competition and Lifecycle Management 

9.9.2 Limited Potential for Dermatology, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.10 Vibativ – Limited Potential for Novel Lipoglycopeptide 

9.10.1 Astellas Ends its Collaboration with Theravance 

9.10.2 Limited HAP Label in the US - Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.11 Sirturo – A New Option for Multi-Drug Resistant TB 

9.11.1 Chronic Treatment Schedule and Emerging Demand Drive Revenue Growth, Forecast

2015-2025 

9.12 Tedizolid – Market Leading Follow-on to Zyvox? 

9.12.1 Competition Increasing: Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.13 Oritavancin – An Antibiotic With a Novel PK Profile 

9.13.1 Single Dose Differentiation to Deliver Market Share (%), Revenue Forecast 2015-

2025 

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9.14 Dalbavancin – Competing in a Crowded Indication 

9.14.1 Sustained Growth Over the Coming 10 Years, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.15 Surotomycin –Treatment for C. difficile 

9.15.1 Delayed Launch to Limit Potential, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

9.16 Nemonoxacin – Taiwan’s Global Antibacterial Drug 

9.16.1 Slow Initial Growth to Accelerate with US Approval, Revenue Forecast 2015-2025 

10. The Leading National Markets, 2015-2025 

10.1 US and China Dominate the Global Antibacterial Market, But For Different Reasons 

10.2 Above-Average Growth in US: Regional Forecasts, 2015-2025 

10.3 China to Slump in Market Share, While Brazil and India Push on 

10.4 Incidence of Infection by Country, 2014 

10.4.1 Incidence of Pneumonia in National Markets – Pneumonia Predominant in America 

10.4.2 Incidence of Community Acquired Urinary Tract Infections in National Markets –

High Incidence Rates in the UK, US and Spain 

10.4.3 Incidence of Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections in National Markets – High

Potential in the US 

10.4.4 Incidence of Upper Respiratory Tract Infections in National Markets – Europe Leads

the Way 

10.5 Antibacterial Drug Consumption by Country, 2014 

10.5.1 Antibacterial Drug Consumption in the Major National Markets 

10.5.2 Antibacterial Drug Consumption in Some Other National Markets 

10.6 The Antibacterials Market in the US 

10.6.1 Continued Dominance of the US Market 

10.7 The European Union Forms Second Largest Regional Market 

10.7.1 Marginal Expansion in Antibacterial Spending – Market Forecast 2015-2025 

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10.7.2 Action to Encourage Antibacterial Drug Development in the EU 

10.7.3 Italy Continues to Lead the Way in Antibiotic Use 

10.7.4 The French Fascination with Expensive Antibacterial Drugs 

10.7.5 Germany – Europe’s Antibiotic Steward 

10.7.6 Rising Use of Antibacterials Drugs in the UK 

10.7.7 Spanish Antibacterials Market to Expand from 2019 to 2025 

10.8 Japan – Still the Third Largest National Market 

10.8.1 The Pause Before Growth in the Japanese Market 

10.9 Will South Korea Continue Its High Use of Antibiotics? 

10.10 BRIC Nation Sales Still Expanding – Market Forecast 2015-2025 

10.11 Chinese Antibacterial Market Bloated by Reported Overuse 

10.11.1 Developing Antibacterials in China, for China 

10.11.2 Governmental Controls Subdue Recent Growth – Market Forecast 2015-2025 

10.12 Indian Market to Expand by 50% Over the Forecast Period 

10.12.1 Restricting Antibiotic Use in India 

10.12.2 Sustained Expansion of the Indian Market, Forecast 2015-2025 

10.13 Brazilian Antibacterial Market to Double in Size 

10.13.1 Brazilian Market to Be Driven by Drug Resistance 

10.14 Russia: TB Prevalence to Stimulate Antibiotic Sales - Forecast 2015-2025 

11. Antibacterials R&D Pipeline Review, 2015 

11.1 Gram-Positive vs. Gram-Negative 

11.2 Pipeline Dominated by Small Molecule Drugs 

11.3 Leading Phase III Pipeline Treatment Candidates 

11.3.1 Surotomycin – Broad C. difficile Treatment to Reduce Relapse 

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11.3.2 Tedizolid – More Potent Than Zyvox with Fewer Doses? 

11.3.3 Delafloxacin – A Leading pH Activated, Broad Spectrum Fluoroquinolone 

11.3.4 Solithromycin – Fluroketolide with Favourable Side Effect Profile  

11.3.5 Eravacycline – Treating Gram-Negative cUTIs and cIAIs 

11.3.6 Plazomicin – Straight to PIII in Carbapenem Resistant Infections 

11.3.7 Cadazolid: Largest PIII C. Difficile Trial 

11.4 Leading Phase II Antibacterial Drug Candidates 

11.4.1 AZD5847: An Oxazolidinone for TB 

11.4.2 Avarofloxacin is Reportedly Still Waiting for a Partner 

11.4.3 MK-7655 and Invanz – A Novel β-Lactamase Combination 

11.4.4 Omadacycline – Another Phase III-Ready Partnership 

11.4.5 Radezolid – Apparently on Melinta’s Back-Burner for Now 

11.4.6 AFN-1252: Highly Specific S. Aureus Antibacterial 

11.4.7 Sutezolid – Sequella Looking to Combine TB Treatments 

11.4.8 Taksta (Fusidic acid) – Cempra’s Second Pipeline Candidate 

11.4.9 TD-1792 – A Russian Antibacterial Medicine 

11.4.10 Brilacidin – A Novel Peptide Antibacterial Agent 

11.4.11POL7080 – Polyphor and Roche in Multi-Million Dollar Deal 

11.4.12 BC-3781- Unique Mechanism of Action at 23S? 

11.5 Inhaled Antibiotics – Advantages in Lung Infections 

11.5.1 Cayston: Competition for Novartis? 

11.5.2 ARIKACE – Targeting P. aeruginosa 

11.5.3 Aeroquin – Better than Podhaler? 

11.5.4 BAYQ3939 – Developments for Cystic Fibrosis 

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11.5.5 NKTR-061: Targeting Intubated Pneumonia 

11.5.6 Pulmaquin: A Second Ciprofloxacin Candidate 

11.5.7 AeroVanc Targets MRSA Infections 

11.5.8 Inhaled Amikacin-Fosfomycin – Adjunctive Therapy for VAP 

11.6 Biologics – Truly Novel Antibacterial Therapeutics 

11.6.1 MK-3415A: First Antibacterial mAb to the Market? 

11.6.2 KB001A – The Leading Antibody Against P. aeruginosa 

11.6.3 Aridis Pharmaceuticals: Targeting P. aeruginosa and S. aureus 

11.6.4 MEDI4893 - Early Stage mAb to S. Aureus 

11.7 Other Classes 

11.7.1 AZD0914 – Novel DNA Gyrase Inhibitor 

11.7.2 MRX-I – Safer Oral Oxazolidinone to Treat MRSA 

11.7.3 GSK2140944 – BTI Class of Antibiotics 

11.7.4 Carbavance – to Treat CRE 

12. Qualitative Analysis of the Antibacterials Industry and Market, 2015 

12.1 SWOT Analysis: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Affecting

Antibacterials, their Developers, Producers and Marketers  

12.2 STEP Analysis: Social, Technological, Economic and Political Forces Affecting the

Antibacterial Drug Industry and Market 

12.2.1 Social Factors 

12.2.2 Technological Developments 

12.2.3 Economic Pressures 

12.2.4 Political Issues 

12.3 Market is Well Established and Demand will Remain Strong 

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12.4 High Prevalence of Bacterial Infection Worldwide 

12.5 Worldwide Demand for Antibacterials 

12.6 Animal Models of Infection are Highly Predictive Compared with Other Therapeutic

Fields 

12.7 Cutting into a Saturated Market 

12.8 Superior Benefit over Generics? 

12.9 Resistance – Nature’s Patent Expiry 

12.10 Acute Treatment Limits Commercial Potential 

12.11 Did Big Pharma Back Away from Antibacterial Drugs? 

12.12 Resistance Will Continue to Present New Targets 

12.13 First Biologic Antibacterials 

12.14 Potential for Smaller Firms to Capitalise 

12.15 Developing Preventative Vaccines Rather Than Treatments 

12.16 Antibacterial Stewardship Reduces Usage 

12.17 Clinical Confusion from Inconsistent Guidance Between Regulatory Bodies 

12.17.1 Therapeutic Success in European Clinical Trials 

12.17.2 Primary End Points in FDA Guidelines 

12.18 Reduction in Hospital Infection Rates - Reducing Demand for Antibacterial Drugs 

12.19 Enticing Antibacterial Drug Discovery – Push and Pull Incentives 

12.19.1 GAIN act: Post-Development Pull Incentives in the US 

12.19.2 ADAPT – Building on the GAIN act 

12.19.3 EMA Update Guideline – Streamlining Clinical Trials in the EU 

12.19.4 Push Incentives for Antibacterial Drug Discovery with Public Funding 

12.19.5 IMI: Public-Private Collaboration with GSK and AstraZeneca 

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12.19.6 Public Finance Pumping Money into Antibacterial Development 

13. Research Interviews from Our Survey 13.1 Dr Bruce R. Donald (Duke University), Dr Amy C. Anderson (University of Connecticut),

and Mr. Pablo Gainza-Cirauqui (Duke University) 

13.1.1 OSPREY 

13.1.2 OSPREY – Specializes in Accurate Negative Design 

13.1.3 Technical Challenges in Predicting Mutations 

13.1.4 Success Rate - Top Four Predictions Confirmed in vitro 

13.1.5 OSPREY Could Potentially Predict Resistance Mutations to Biologics (mAbs) 

13.1.6 Further Work: Optimize Antibody for Highest in vivo Efficacy 

13.1.7 Anticipate Mutations – Redesign Drugs to Maximize Effective Lifespan

13.2 Professor Dr Helga Rübsamen-Schaeff, AiCuris GmbH & Co. KG 

13.2.1 AiCuris GmbH & Co. KG 

13.2.2 Antibacterial Market - Driven by Supportive Frameworks and Initiatives 

13.2.3 Surveillance Data of CRO in Germany 

13.2.4 CPE in Germany - Regional Spread 

13.2.5 AIC499 – to Treat Gram-Negative Infections 

13.3 Dr Vu Truong, Founder & CSO, Aridis Pharmaceuticals, United States 

13.3.1 Opportunities for Antibacterial Monoclonal Antibodies 

13.3.2 Positioning Monoclonal Antibacterials in the Clinic 

13.3.3 Differentiating Factor for Biological Antibacterials 

13.3.4 Hazard Pitfalls in Clinical Development 

13.3.5 Trends in Antibacterial Drug Market – Novel Targets Rewarded 

13.3.6 The Commercial Hazard of Acute Therapeutics 

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13.3.7 Progress from Government Incentives, But More to Come on the Manufacturing Side 

13.3.8 Bacteriophages, Potentially Innovative Therapeutics 

14. Antibacterial Drugs Market to 2025: Conclusions 14.1 Three Blockbuster Antibacterials in 2014, Leading Brands 

14.2 The Leading Branded Antibacterial Drugs in 2025 

14.3 Signs of Life in the Antibacterial R&D Pipeline 

14.4 Stemming the Tide of Antibacterial Drug Resistance 

14.5 The Changing Face of Antibacterial Clinical Development 

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Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015-2025

Pfizer also markets an oral form of the drug, Unasyn Oral. The drug's US patent expired in 1999

and its sustained presence in the market has been due to successful lifecycle management

strategies. Revenue has been falling for many years generating revenue of $0.23bn in 2012. In

2013, Pfizer reported revenue of $0.22bn for Unasyn.

5.7.1 Falling Revenues - Forecast 2015-2025

Revenue for Unasyn has been falling since patents covering the drug expired in 1999. This trend

will continue for the coming 10 years with mid-single digit declines in annual revenue, reaching

$0.19bn in 2019 and $0.14bn in 2025 (Table 5.9 and Figure 5.7). Throughout the forecast period of

2014-2025, revenue will fall with a CAGR of -3.5%.

Table 5.9 Unasyn Forecast: Revenue ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%), 2015-2025

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Unasyn ($bn) 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.20 0.19

Annual Growth (%) -2.4 3.7 -3.9 -0.2 -3.4 -5.0CAGR (%) -1.8

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Unasyn ($bn) 0.18 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.14 0.14

Annual Growth (%) -4.8 -9.0 -3.7 -6.9 -6.1 1.5CAGR (%) -4.9

Figure 5.7 Unasyn Forecast: Revenue ($bn), 2015-2025

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Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015-2025

6.8.3 Revenue Forecast 2015-2025

Revenue for Vigamox is expected to peak in 2015 at $0.39bn. However, growth during the year

and beyond will be restrained by increased uptake for Alcon’s other moxifloxacin antibiotic,

Moxeza. Beyond 2020, as well as competition from Moxeza, Vigamox will also compete with

generic competition and subsequent price erosion. Alcon will look to transfer patients onto Moxeza

to replace Vigamox and maintain market share, which will accelerate the decline in revenue for the

former drug. By 2019, revenue will have fallen to $0.31bn (Table 6.11 and Figure 6.7). Revenue is

expected to reach $0.08bn in 2025.

Table 6.11 Vigamox Forecast: Revenue ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%), 2015-2025

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Vigamox ($bn) 0.39 0.39 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.31

Annual Growth (%) 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -10.0CAGR (%) -4.6

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Vigamox ($bn) 0.16 0.12 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08

Annual Growth (%) -50.0 -25.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 -11.5CAGR (%) -21.1

Figure 6.7 Vigamox Forecast: Revenue ($bn), 2015-2025

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Antibacterial Drugs: World Industry and Market Prospects 2015-2025

antibiotics with 13.9 DDD per 1000 inhabitants per day. However, consumption per capita has

risen by 10% over the past decade and visiongain anticipates a greater demand for antibiotics over

the coming 10 years. This increase in demand will be driven by an increase in the average age of

the population and subsequent rise in incidence of urinary tract infections and pneumonia.

Table 10.14 German Antibacterial Drugs Market: Revenue Forecast ($bn), Annual Growth (%), CAGR (%), 2015-2025

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019Germany ($bn) 1.06 1.06 1.08 1.10 1.12 1.15

Annual Growth (%) -1.0 0.5 1.2 2.5 1.5 2.5CAGR (%) 1.6

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Germany ($bn) 1.17 1.19 1.22 1.25 1.29 1.32

Annual Growth (%) 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.4CAGR (%) 2.4

Figure 10.9 German Antibacterial Drugs Market: Revenue Forecast ($bn), 2015-2025

10.7.6 Rising Use of Antibacterials Drugs in the UK

Though some countries have reported declining prescribing rates for antibiotics in recent years, in

the UK it has risen. Over the last decade, antibacterial consumption within the UK has increased

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Mar

ket s

ize

($bn

)

Year

Source: visiongain 2015 – CAGR values for period 2014-2019 and 2019-2025

Source: visiongain 2015