Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid La ...oa.upm.es/4534/1/INVE_MEM_2008_61106.pdf ·...

Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 1

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

La economía de agua de riego

24 Septiembre 2008

[email protected]


PESETA (JRC)

Adaptation (DG Agri)

PICCMAT (6th FP)

CIRCE (6th FP)

SWAP (6th FP)

ClimateCost (7th FP)

MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)


• For the last 10,000 years we have been living in

a remarkable stable climate that allowed the

whole of the human development to take place

• In all that time, though the medieval warming

and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation

of 1ºC

• Now we see the potential for sudden change of

between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what

the world is like at those temperatures, we

have no idea if we can live in it

Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007


Production in a changing climate

• Objective: discussion

1. Critical thinking: What does climate change

mean for production?

– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions

– Challenges and opportunities

2. Solutions: What is the best future we can

hope for?

– Focus on policy integration


Climate

impacts

Climate

dynamics

Societal

dynamics

f

Rethinking climate impacts

Source: CIRCE


Climate dynamics Observed and projected warming in the EU

Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre


More extreme eventsProjected changes in drought risk (%)

under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario


Annual Streamflow in Bolarque and SPI

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

19

11

/12

19

19

/20

19

27

/28

19

35

/36

19

43

/44

19

51

/52

19

59

/60

19

67

/68

19

75

/76

19

83

/84

19

91

/92

19

99

/00

Hm

3

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

SP

I (2

4 m

on

ths

)

Ann Inflow SPI (24) Lineal (Ann Inflow)

Source: Iglesias et al., 2007


Changes in water supply and demand with climate change

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

% c

han

ge f

rom

baseli

ne

Irrigation demand Rservoir water inflow Available water resources

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)

# 1. Scenarios:

Water supply and demand

#

#

#

#

#

9

11

12

8

7

6

5

4

3

210

1

Bilbao

Barcelona

Valencia

Madrid

Sevilla

Medite

rranean

Sea

France

Po

rtu

gal

Atla

nticO

cean

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

910

11

12

#

#

#

#

#

9

11

12

8

7

6

5

4

3

210

1

Bilbao

Barcelona

Valencia

Madrid

Sevilla

Medite

rranean

Sea

France

Po

rtu

gal

Atla

nticO

cean

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

910

11

12

Iglesias et al. 2008


Climate

impacts

Climate

dynamics

Societal

dynamics

f


Source: CIRCE


Agricultural exports and imports (2006)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

EU USA China RoW

Mill

ion

t

Exports Imports

Global scale


# 2. Local realities (vulnerabilities)


Local realities (vulnerabilities)


Climate

impacts

Climate

dynamics

Societal

dynamics

f


Source: CIRCE

Challenges

and

opportunities


Challenges and opportunities

Regional disparities

Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3

A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline

(Iglesias et al. 2007)


Boreal

• Expansion of areas and growing season

• Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases

• Risk of soil structure loss


Atlantic N

Atlantic C

• Sea level rise

• Floods, water-

logging

• Summer drought

• Environmental

policy

determines the

opportunities


# 3. Useful knowledgeThe role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992)

Fuente: OECD

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf

Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008 19Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec

Atlantic S

• Decline of

high quality

crops

• Regulations

may limit

opportunities


Balance Carbono en Champagne


Continental N

Continental S

• Heat stress and drought in

summer

(e.g., 2007)

• Floods, water-logging

• Environmental degradation

• New crops, energy crops


# 4. Flexible risk management

• The past is not a reliable indicator of the future


Alpine

• Glacier melt

• Modification of the hydrological

regime with large implications

for soil erosion, water

availability, etc

• Further stress to highly

vulnerable areas


Med N

Med S

• Water scarcity and drought

• Conflicts among water

users

• Vulnerability of the complex

interactions of agriculture-

ecosystems

• Limitations of rural

development


The Stern Review of the Economics of

Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006)

• Argues that “the overall costs and risks of

climate change will be equivalent to losing at

least 5% of global GDP1 each year”

• Challenged by many economists with large

working experience in climate change (Tol,

2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous

unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005;

Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and

Tol, 2005)


Change value of GDP 2080s (agriculture shock)

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

Rest of EU Med North Med South ROW

% c

hange

HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2 ECHAM A2 ECHAM B2

Source: Iglesias et al., 2007


Production in a changing climate

• Objective: discussion

1. Critical thinking: What does climate change

mean for production?

– Complex outlook, multiple dimensions

– Challenges and opportunities

2. Solutions: What is the best future we can

hope for?

– Focus on policy integration


Climate

impacts

Climate

dynamics

Societal

dynamics

f


Source: CIRCE


• Kyoto protocol

• Lisbon strategy

• SD strategy

• EU White Paper on Adaptation

• CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D

• Local initiatives (early stages,

dissemination, awareness building)

Existing set of policies


Building

adaptive

capacity

Awareness raising

Research (spatial and time

dimension)

Knowledge transfer

Risk management

Policy support in order to

deliver adaptation actions


Building

adaptive

capacity

Delivering

adaptation

actions

Supported by policy

Strategic combination of

the CC commitments of

various policies

Technology, infrastructure

Changes in land use

Flexible resource

management and

efficiency


Role of

RD (CAP)

A flexible

framework

Axis 1

Farm modernization

Restoring & prevention

Farm advisory services

Training

Axis 2

Agri-env measures

Payments linked to WFD

Axis 3

Diversification into non-

agricultural activities

Leader


Natural

resources

dimension

Social

dimension

Technological

dimension

Economic

dimension

Climate

policy index

Vulnerability

Climate change

Impacts

# 5. Understanding how may policy modify climate risks

Define strategic combination of the climate change commitments in the various policies

Source: CIRCE


• Values range from 0 to 1

• High values indicate that current policies decrease potential impacts (the system has increased adaptive capacity, is less vulnerable)

Source: CIRCE

Climate

policy

index

Algeria 0.31

Egypt 0.43

France 0.62

Israel 0.48

Italy 0.61

Libya 0.30

Morocco 0.40

Spain 0.55

Syria 0.49


Climate impacts on agriculture

with different policiesHadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100

(% yield change respect to baseline)

Agric output

Adaptation

Policy

Env (1)

Adaptation

Farm (2)

Adaptation

Policy

Econ /Rural Dev (3)

Mediterranean

Europe -50 to -25 1 0 to 20

(1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection

and urban development

(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)

(3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural

production and rural developmentSoure: Iglesias et al 2007


What is the best future

we can hope for?


Thinking more about …

1. Climate scenarios are not enough

2. Understanding of local vulnerabilities

3. Useful knowledge (involving practitioners, industry)

4. Moving towards a flexible, risk management

5. Understanding how policy modifies climate risks and opportunities

• Learning how to respond in the long term

• Learning how to avoid political crisis


Thanks for your attention!

[email protected]

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