Adaptation: managing the unavoidable

Roundtable 3: Can agricultural investment

coexist with climate change policies?

Ana IglesiasUniversidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain

EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010

Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010

Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)1

1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies?

2 challenges

– Speak a common language (prioritise reasons for concern)

– Improve dialogue between science, policy and society (define how, lessons from EU initiatives, measures that make sense today and in the future)

(academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples) 2

Reasons for concern

Financial crisis, terror, inequality,

degradation of the environment, …

Common element: global issues, what

happens in one place has an influence

on what happens in another place

3

Food importers are buying agricultural land of poor countries

Defining the baseline is difficult 4

Reasons for concern (synthesis of global studies)

Risks and opportunities

Optimal crop zones

Crop productivity

Water conflict

Soil salinity and erosion

Damage by extremes

Environmental degradation

Pests and diseases

High risk, highly certain

Medium risk, some uncertainty

Possible opportunity,

if management is adequate

“The adaptation gap” Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate?

5

HadCM3 A2 HadCM3 B2

Example 1Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010)

We do not know

how our world

would be like in

the future 6

8

Complexity: need to

understand local

vulnerabilities

What might a low GHG diet look like?(Source: T. Garnett, 2009)

– Not overeating

– Much less meat and dairy

– Seasonal field grown foods

– Not eating certain foods

– Reducing dependence on cold chain

– Wasting less

– Efficient cooking

– Redefining quality9

10

6 Measures with high mitigation potential

1.Catch crops

2.Reduced tillage

3.Use crop residues

4.Optimising fertiliser use

5.Increase wood crops

6.Optimal pasture renewal

6 Evaluation criteria

1.Mitigation potential

2.Externalities

3.Barriers to implementation (tech., ec., social)

4.Interest to farmers

5.May be included in CAP?

6.Incentives?

10Source: PICCMAT (6th FP EU)

11

Example 2: Water

0

40

80

120

2020 2050 2080

Po

pula

tion

(m

illio

ns)

Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage

University of Southampton 11

12 12

13

14

Energy consumption for seawater desalination

0

5

10

15

20

25

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

Kw

h p

er m

3

14

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html15

Example 3: Human displacement

Improve dialogue science, policy, society

Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper on adaptation; EU funded research)

16

Role of RD (CAP)

A flexible framework

Axis 1Farm modernizationRestoring & preventionFarm advisory servicesTrainingAxis 2Agri-env measuresPayments linked to WFDAxis 3Diversification into non-agricultural activities

Leader 18

natural water resources

regulation infrastructure

water availability

non-conventionalresources

Policy

nature non-nature uses

water recycling

Policy

essentialproductivePolicy

Policy

19Source: Garrote et al., 2010

Role of WFD

Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010)

HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change)

RegionAdap.Policy Urban / Env (1)

Adap.Farm (2)

Adapt.Policy Econ /Rural Dev (3)

Boreal 25 to 30 34 35 to 40

Atlantic South -10 to -10 -7 -5 to 0

Cont. North 0 to 5 4 5 to 10

Alpine 10 to 20 23 25 to 40

Med. South -50 to -25 1 0 to 20

(1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)(3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development 20

Reasons for concern when we think

about climate change

Consequences are too unequal

Uncertainty

Deciding on the solutions that are

appropriate (the how issue)

21

ana.iglesias@upm.es

thank you

Presentation made at the:EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010

Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)

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