An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford...

23
Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in Ireland Bryan Hosford and Reena Cole Department of Mechanical, Aeronautical and Biomedical Engineering University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland Abstract This paper conducted an economic analysis of the viability of five solar photovoltaic installations in County Tipperary, Ireland. Economic barriers along with policy recommendations are also discussed in detail in order to incentivise solar photovoltaics installations in Ireland. Using costings, solar photovoltaic energy output data and solar radiation data it is also investigated how Irish financial aids compare with European scenarios. It was concluded that the installations are economically feasible, however there is a need for widespread financial aids to be introduced in Ireland to ensure solar photovoltaic are economically viable, in line with European financial scenarios for solar photovoltaics. Keywords: Renewable energy; Solar photovoltaics; Economic viability; Ireland Nomenclature A Total PV array area m 2 1 Single solar PV panel power kWp E PV energy output kWh Annual PV energy output kWh PV energy available for export kWh Hourly PV energy output kWh Monthly PV energy output kWh Recorded monthly PV energy output kWh Future value of money H Global solar radiation kWh/m 2 Global solar radiation for month required kWh/m 2 I Initial investment i Inflation rate % Annual electricity load/consumption kWh Hourly electricity load/consumption kWh n Nominal interest rate % Electricity export profit 1 Single solar PV panel area m 2 PR Performance ratio - PV Sum of discounted cashflows Solar panel yield % Real interest rate % Savings Annual benefit in the year i 1. Introduction The introduction of renewable energy technologies, such as solar photovoltaics (PVs), to the Irish fuel mix is essential for the energy future and security of the country. The Irish Government responded to Directive 2009/28/EC (a directive to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy all by 20% by 2020) by setting a target of 40% of gross electricity consumption to originate from renewable sources by 2020 [1]. The usage of solar PV in Ireland has been sparse however and there is a need for more solar PV installations to be introduced to help meet the 40% target. Findings on the state of energy in Ireland show that greenhouse gas emissions, as of 2013, are 17% above 1990 levels and the cost of all energy imported to Ireland was €6.7 billion, thus causing strain on the Irish economy and energy security [2]. Figure 1 shows the flow of energy in electricity generation in Ireland in 2013. Figure 1: Flow of Energy in Electricity Generation in Ireland in 2013 [3]. Figure 1 shows the generation of electricity from solar PVs is non-existent nationally in Ireland and fossils fuels still account for a large percentage. For instance the share of fossil fuels for electricity generation in Ireland was 82.6% in 2013 [2]. It will be seen in this paper that the potential of solar PV is not being realised in Ireland. Tipperary local authority has currently installed a total of 193kW of solar PV from Tipperary Energy Agency (TEA), which is the largest project of its type in Ireland [4]. Solar PV output data was received from TEA for a number of these installations from December 2014 to July 2015 along with annual global solar radiation data from Met E ireann. 1.1. Objectives Using the solar PV output data from the Tipperary solar PV installations (Nenagh Civic Offices, Clonmel County Hall, Clonmel Fire Station and Clonmel Machinery Yard) and the global solar radiation data, an economic analysis of the viability of solar PV installations will be presented in this paper. This will be carried out in both economic and data analysis sections. Irish economic barriers in conjunction It is hereby declared that this report is entirely my own work, unless otherwise stated, and that all sources of information have been properly acknowledged and referenced. It is also declared that this report has not previously been submitted, in whole or in part, as part fulfilment of any module assessment requirement. Signed: _____________________ Date:

Transcript of An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford...

Page 1: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

1

An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in Ireland Bryan Hosford and Reena Cole

Department of Mechanical, Aeronautical and Biomedical Engineering

University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland

Abstract

This paper conducted an economic analysis of the viability of five solar photovoltaic installations in County Tipperary,

Ireland. Economic barriers along with policy recommendations are also discussed in detail in order to incentivise solar

photovoltaics installations in Ireland. Using costings, solar photovoltaic energy output data and solar radiation data it is also

investigated how Irish financial aids compare with European scenarios. It was concluded that the installations are

economically feasible, however there is a need for widespread financial aids to be introduced in Ireland to ensure solar

photovoltaic are economically viable, in line with European financial scenarios for solar photovoltaics.

Keywords: Renewable energy; Solar photovoltaics; Economic viability; Ireland

Nomenclature

A Total PV array area m2

𝐸1 Single solar PV panel power kWp

E PV energy output kWh

𝐸𝑎 Annual PV energy output kWh

𝐸𝐸 PV energy available for export kWh

𝐸𝐻 Hourly PV energy output kWh

𝐸𝑚 Monthly PV energy output kWh

𝐸𝑟 Recorded monthly PV energy

output

kWh

𝐹 Future value of money €

H Global solar radiation kWh/m2

𝐻𝑚 Global solar radiation for month

required kWh/m2

I Initial investment €

i Inflation rate %

𝐿𝐴 Annual electricity

load/consumption

kWh

𝐿𝐻 Hourly electricity

load/consumption

kWh

n Nominal interest rate %

𝑃 Electricity export profit €

𝑃𝐿1 Single solar PV panel area m2

PR Performance ratio -

PV Sum of discounted cashflows €

𝑟 Solar panel yield %

𝑟𝑖 Real interest rate %

𝑆 Savings €

𝛽𝑖 Annual benefit in the year i €

1. Introduction

The introduction of renewable energy technologies, such as

solar photovoltaics (PVs), to the Irish fuel mix is essential

for the energy future and security of the country. The Irish

Government responded to Directive 2009/28/EC (a

directive to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, increase

energy efficiency and the use of renewable energy all by

20% by 2020) by setting a target of 40% of gross electricity

consumption to originate from renewable sources by 2020

[1]. The usage of solar PV in Ireland has been sparse

however and there is a need for more solar PV installations

to be introduced to help meet the 40% target.

Findings on the state of energy in Ireland show that

greenhouse gas emissions, as of 2013, are 17% above 1990

levels and the cost of all energy imported to Ireland was

€6.7 billion, thus causing strain on the Irish economy and

energy security [2].

Figure 1 shows the flow of energy in electricity generation

in Ireland in 2013.

Figure 1: Flow of Energy in Electricity Generation in Ireland in 2013 [3].

Figure 1 shows the generation of electricity from solar PVs

is non-existent nationally in Ireland and fossils fuels still

account for a large percentage. For instance the share of

fossil fuels for electricity generation in Ireland was 82.6%

in 2013 [2].

It will be seen in this paper that the potential of solar PV is

not being realised in Ireland. Tipperary local authority has

currently installed a total of 193kW of solar PV from

Tipperary Energy Agency (TEA), which is the largest

project of its type in Ireland [4]. Solar PV output data was

received from TEA for a number of these installations from

December 2014 to July 2015 along with annual global solar

radiation data from Met Eireann.

1.1. Objectives

Using the solar PV output data from the Tipperary solar PV

installations (Nenagh Civic Offices, Clonmel County Hall,

Clonmel Fire Station and Clonmel Machinery Yard) and

the global solar radiation data, an economic analysis of the

viability of solar PV installations will be presented in this

paper. This will be carried out in both economic and data

analysis sections. Irish economic barriers in conjunction

It is hereby declared that this report is entirely my own work, unless otherwise stated, and that all sources of information have been properly acknowledged and referenced. It is also declared that this report has not previously been submitted, in whole or in part, as part fulfilment of any module assessment requirement.

Signed: _____________________ Date:

Page 2: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

2

with policy recommendations will be presented also in this

paper, with emphasis on incentivising small and large scale

consumers to utilise solar PV. Using costings for the solar

PV installations in this paper it will also be investigated

how the Irish grant and subsidies scenario compares to

scenarios throughout selected countries in the EU.

2. Literature review

The literature review in this paper will discuss solar PV

technology in Ireland and generally. This information will

be presented under the following headings: Solar PV in

Ireland, Support Strategies Available for Solar PV

Installations and the heading Solar PV Technology. For a

more detailed literature review the interim report for this

paper can be consulted [39].

2.1. Solar PV in Ireland

This section will outline the argument that there is fantastic

potential for solar PV systems in Ireland. Solar PV in

Ireland will be investigated under two headings which are

The Case for Solar Energy in Ireland and the Current Solar

PV situation in Ireland.

2.1.1 The Case for Solar Energy in Ireland

Wexford experiences 78% of the global solar radiation

levels of Madrid meaning solar PV installations are suitable

under Irish conditions [5]. Global solar radiation levels in

Ireland are also equivalent to the levels in the majority of

the UK and northern Europe, as can be seen in Figure 2,

where solar PV is being embraced. For example the UK, as

of June 2015, has an installed capacity of 7.75 GW for

solar PVs [6] and 1.4 TWh of solar PV energy was

generated from July 2012 to June 2013 [7].

Figure 2: Yearly Total of Global Horizontal Radiation in Europe [8].

Solar module prices in the EU have reduced by 42% since

2011 from €0.96/w (per watt) to €0.56/w unlike traditional

energy prices in the EU which have risen by 27% in the

same period [5]. It is also projected that installation costs

will fall by 29% by 2020 and this will make solar PVs a

cheaper source of electricity than onshore wind [5]. Solar

PV has potential to help reach targets for renewable energy

consumption and would also compliment wind energy as

peak energy output for solar energy occurs during midday

hours while peak wind energy output occurs during night

hours [9].

It is estimated that by 2020, over 20% of Ireland’s energy

production could easily be generated by solar PV [10]. Also

0.02% of Irelands total land area could provide 1,260,000

megawatt hours of solar PV energy thus providing 382,000

Irish households with power annually and in turn reducing

carbon emissions by 652,000 tonnes [10].

2.1.2 Current Solar PV Situation in Ireland

Ireland at present has no energy policy provision in place

for using solar PV as a renewable energy resource [10]. As

of 2013 Ireland ranks 26th out of 27 EU member states for

the production of energy from solar PV [10].

In Ireland Solar PV is currently not being offered under the

Government REFIT (Renewable Energy Feed in Tariff)

scheme provided by the Sustainable Energy Authority of

Ireland (SEAI) [11]. There is approximately 1MW of solar

PV capacity installed in Ireland, enough to power 300

homes, however none of the installations are utilised for the

national grid [10]. Looking at Figure 3 where solar PV

installed capacity is represented in watts per inhabitant

(w/inhabitant), it is evident that other countries in Europe

are embracing solar PV unlike Ireland [12]. Darker colours

in Figure 3 indicate higher w/inhabitant installed.

Figure 3: European Installations per Inhabitant [13]

2.2 Support Strategies Available for Solar PV

Installations

This section will investigate certain support strategies

available for solar PV installations. These will be

investigated under two headings which are Support

Strategies for Solar PV Installations in Ireland and Support

Strategies for Solar PV Installations in the EU. Support

strategies such as Feed in Tariffs (FiTs) are available and

these are payments to energy users for generating

electricity from solar PV and other renewable energy

technologies, even if the electricity is utilised by the

producer [14].

2.2.1 Support Strategies for Solar PV Installations in

Ireland

There is very limited support for solar PV installations in

Ireland with ESB Electric Ireland currently being the only

electricity supplier that offers a FiT rate of €0.09 for each

kWh of electricity produced for solar PV systems and this

is only for domestic systems [15] [16]. There was a

supplement provided by ESB Electric Ireland for electricity

exported onto the grid for domestic solar PV systems but

this ceased in early 2013 [15].

There were certain grants available for commercial PV

installations under SEAI’s Better Energy Work Places

programme, now replaced with The National Energy

Performance Contracting Framework [17]. These grants

were available for up to 35% of capital costs for private

companies and 50% for public buildings, with the latter

being received for the TEA installations [18].

2.2.2 Support Strategies for Solar PV Installations in the

EU

FiT rates are currently available in 20 EU countries [19]. In

France rates are offered for building-integrated, simplified

building integrated and for any type of installation and

these rates depend on power ratings and for PV systems up

to 12 MW [19]. Tax credits are also available in France

Page 3: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

3

(50% of the costs of materials) along with reduced VAT of

7% [ref]. The French FiT rates can be seen in Table 1. Table 1: French FiT Rates [19]

Type of Installation

Classification

Rated Power

(kW)

FiT (€/kWh)

Education or health Building integrated 0-9 €0.3159/kWh

Education or health Building integrated 9-36 -

Education or health Simplified building

integrated

0-36 €0.1817/kWh

Education or health Simplified building

integrated

36-100 €0.1727/kWh

Other buildings Building integrated 0-9 €0.3159/kWh

Other buildings Simplified building

integrated

0-36 €0.1817/kWh

Other buildings Simplified building

integrated

36-100 €0.1727/kWh

Any type - 0-1200 €0.0818/kWh

In Germany FiT rates were implemented in 2004 and this

enabled Germany to have the highest installation rates per

inhabitant in the world [20]. Contracts for the rates in

Germany last 20 years and these rates decrease by a

monthly base rate of 1%, which is subjective to installation

size, to incentivise rapid deployment of solar PV

installations. [19] [20]. The rate of decrease is reviewed

and modified in quarter segments annually to factor in the

increase or decrease of installed PV capacity [19]. Table 2

shows the FiT rates for Germany which are accurate as of

November 2013 [21]. Table 2: German FiT Rates [21]

Rated Power

(kW)

Installed in, at or on Building

Noise Protection Wall

Freestanding Facility

<10 €0.1407/kWh €0.0974/kWh

10.01 - 40 €0.1335/kWh €0.0974/kWh

40.01 – 1000 €0.1191/kWh €0.0974/kWh

1000.01-10000 €0.0997/kWh €0.0974/kWh

In the UK a number of incentives are also available for

solar PV [21]. Large-scale PV plants in the UK are not

widespread but there is a high level of solar PV

installations in the private and commercial sectors and at

the end of 2011 there were approximately 230,000 solar

projects [22]. FiT and quota systems are available and to be

eligible for FiT rates installations up to 5MW are required

to undertake an accreditation process [19]. Rates are

available for a period of 20 years for systems installed

beyond the 1st of August 2012 [21]. Table 3 shows FiT

rates available for PV installations. In the UK an export

tariff is also available for solar PV energy producers and

this can also be seen in Table 3. Table 3: UK FiT Rates and Export Tariff [21]

Installation size

(kW)

Higher Rate

Medium Rate Lower Rate

≤ 4 €0.1779/kWh €0.1601/kWh €0.0818/kWh

4 - 10 €0.1612/kWh €0.1451/kWh €0.0818/kWh

10 - 50 €0.1501/kWh €0.1350/kWh €0.0818/kWh

50 - 150 €0.1325/kWh €0.1193/kWh €0.0818/kWh

150 - 250 €0.1268/kWh €0.1141/kWh €0.0818/kWh

250 - 5000 - €0.0818/kWh -

Export Tariff - €0.0554/kWh -

It is evident that there is more support, through incentives

and subsidies, for solar PV in EU countries. There is only a

domestic FiT rate offered in Ireland by one electricity

supplier as discussed previously while nationwide FiT rates

and other incentives are offered by EU countries. If

nationwide FiT rates and incentives were offered in Ireland

it would make the technology more attractive

2.3 Solar PV Technology

In this section it will be discussed how solar PV systems

operate and are connected to national grids under a number

of headings. These headings include An Overview of Solar

PVs, The Photoelectric Effect and Grid Connected PV

systems.

2.3.1 An Overview of Solar PVs

Solar PVs operate by converting direct light into electricity.

Solar PV systems have numerous advantages such as that

the technology is modular (suitability for expansion), has a

significant lifetime (25 years) and is carbon neutral during

operation [23]. The solar PV installation in Nenagh Civic

Offices in County Tipperary, Ireland, which was installed

by TEA can be seen in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Nenagh Civic Offices Installation

The process of conversion takes place in a solar PV cell

which is typically constructed of semiconductors such as

silicon [24]. PV cells are constructed as a group into more

sizeable DC (Direct Current) electrical units referred to as

PV panels and a series of PV panels are known as a PV

array. Arrays and systems are connected to an inverter and

these inverters are then connected to the electricity grid to

create an in phase AC (Alternating Current) output [24].

When electricity load/consumption is high in buildings, the

output from the PV installation is utilised and if there is any

excess of PV power this could potentially be exported onto

the local electricity grid.

2.3.2 The Photoelectric Effect

Due to the photoelectric effect electrons become charged

and are caused to mobilise due to the energy of light falling

on the solar PV cell and these mobile electrons in the semi-

conductor cause an electrical charge to flow [25]. This

electrical field is enabled by introducing impurities, in a

process known as doping, in silicon with elements such as

phosphorus or boron to create n-type (negative) or p-type

(positive) zones [23]. The composition of a silicon solar

cell can be viewed in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Silicon Solar Cell Composition [26]

The solar silicon cell in Figure 5 is comprised of a p-type

silicon layer which has been lightly doped with boron and

an n-type silicon layer which has been highly doped with

phosphorous [27]. When light envelopes the cell a tension

V is detected between the p-n junction due to electron-hole

pairs being generated. Current I can be sent externally once

a load resistor is applied [27].

2.3.3 Grid Connected PV Systems

Solar PV systems, such as the systems installed by TEA

can be connected to the local electricity grid and they can

also include energy storage capabilities [25]. Most systems

are typically installed on rooftop buildings as they enable

substantial power to be generated and these are referred to

Page 4: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

4

as decentralised medium-sized grid connection units [25].

A simple schematic of a rooftop system can be viewed in

Figure 6.

Figure 6: Schematic of a Rooftop Solar PV System [28] The two types of grid-connected solar PV systems are

Decentralised and Central, with Decentralised grid-

connected PV systems being evaluated in this paper.

Decentralised grid-connected PV systems are placed in

close proximity to power demand centres and are intended

to meet local electricity needs, however they can also

provide the electricity needs of a sole building [29]. Excess

energy produced is exported onto the local electricity grid

and if there are FiTs available and export tariffs it may be

more desirable to export all power generated [29].

3. Theoretical Analysis

This section outlines any theory or equations that were

utilised in this paper. There are three headings in this

section which are the Prediction of Solar PV Energy

Output, General Financial Calculations and the heading

Payback Period, NPV and IRR.

3.1 Prediction of Solar PV Energy Output

Hourly and monthly global solar radiation data was

requested and received from Met Eireann so that the energy

output could be predicted from each of the solar PV

installations [30]. The energy output from each of the PV

installations was predicted from August until December as

energy output was not recorded over this period. PV energy

output was predicted by the following [31]:

𝐸 = 𝐴𝑟𝐻𝑃𝑅 [1] The solar panel yield in percentage is found by [31]:

𝑟 =𝐸1

𝑃𝐿1 [2]

Solar PV energy output was also calculated for the months

not recorded by:

𝐸𝑚 = 𝐸𝑎 × 𝐻𝑚 [3]

where 𝐻𝑚 is a percentage of the annual solar global

radiation for the month required (from 1981-2014 [32]).

The annual solar PV energy was calculated by:

𝐸𝑎 =∑ 𝐸𝑟

∑ 𝐻𝑚 × 100 [4]

Solar PV energy output that could be potentially exported

onto the local electricity was calculated by:

𝐸𝐸 = 𝐸𝐻 − 𝐿𝐻 [5]

3.2 General Financial Calculations

The annual electricity cost was found by:

𝐿𝐴 × 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 [6]

where the unit price is in €/kWh.

The annual value of PV production is calculated by:

𝐸𝑎 × 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 [7]

The 1 year unit price can be found by:

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑉 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡

𝐸𝑎 × 𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 [8]

where the grant rate is 50% and the 1 year unit price is in

€/kWh. The 1 year unit price can then by utilised to predict

the 10 year and 20 year unit prices by:

1 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑈𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 [9]

The cost per kW installed of PV for each site is calculated

by:

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑉 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑑 [10]

where the total cost of installation is in € and the total PV

capacity installed is in kW.

The annual % saving in euro can then be found by:

𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑉 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 × 100 [11]

The 10, 20 and 25 year unit price can then be predicted by:

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 ×𝐺𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑌𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 ×𝐸𝑎 [12]

3.3 Payback Period, NPV and IRR

Three techniques will be utilised to assess the economic

viability of the solar PV installations which are payback

period, NPV (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of

return).

The payback period does not consider the time value of

money [33]. The longer the payback period the greater the

risk for investors [33]. The payback period is found by:

∑ 𝛽𝑖 ≥ 𝐼𝑛𝑖=1 [13]

𝛽𝑖 is found by [15]:

𝛽𝑖 = 𝑆 + 𝑃 [14]

NPV assesses a project by comparing the future cash flows

with the initial investment and once NPV becomes positive

the project becomes profitable [33].

NPV is found by:

NPV = PV – P [15]

Discounted cashflow is calculated by:

𝐹

(1+𝑟)𝑛 [16]

The real interest rate 𝑟𝑖 is found by [33]:

𝑟𝑖 = 𝑛 − 𝑖 [17]

IRR is useful as it evaluates a project by calculating an

interest rate that is compared against the minimum return

required and this is the interest rate for which the NPV is

zero [33].

4. Methodology

This section will discuss the methodology for the analysis

of the economic viability of solar PV installations in

Ireland through three headings which are Data Acquisition,

Calculation of Annual Solar PV Output and Potential for

Exporting Energy and the heading Economic Analysis.

4.1 Data Acquisition

The solar PV data was recorded in hourly, daily and

monthly increments and this information was then inputted

into Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. The data was retrieved

from an online personal webpage for the two Nenagh

installations and for the Clonmel installations the data was

extracted manually from the inverter. For the Online

personal webpage the solar PV energy output is recorded

through the use of the inverter and power meter. This data

is then sent to a server where it is collected and stored on a

central database and it can then be extracted. A schematic

of the collection process can be seen in Figure 7.

Page 5: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

5

Figure 7: Schematic of Solar PV Data Collection Process for Online Personal

Webpage [33]

4.2. Calculation of Annual Solar PV Output and Potential

for Exporting Energy

Solar radiation data was taken from the closest Met Eireann

synoptic station to Nenagh and Clonmel (where the

installations are located), which was the Gurteen College

synoptic station as can be seen in Figure 8. Monthly Solar

radiation data can be seen in Appendix A.

Figure 8: Met ��ireann Synoptic Stations in Ireland [34]

Hourly and monthly solar PV energy output was calculated

from August to December using Equations 1, 2 and 3 and

the annual solar PV energy output was then calculated

utilising Equation 4. Technical specifications for each

installation can be seen in Appendix B, while monthly solar

PV energy output for each installation can be seen in

Appendix C. Once the annual solar PV output was

calculated this value was then sent to another Microsoft

Excel spreadsheet to carry out financial calculations.

The total energy available for export was calculated

utilising Equation 5 and for this equation the hourly

electricity consumption in kWh for the Nenagh installations

was calculated by averaging the 2012-2014 Meter

Registration System Operator (MRSO) data, however

MRSO data was not available for the Clonmel installations

[35]. The hourly energy output from the solar PVs was then

calculated using actual and predicted data and the energy

output was predicted from August until late December

using Equation 1. Annual solar radiation data was received

from Met Eireann from 2005 until 2014 and this was

averaged [30].

4.3 Economic Analysis

A number of financial calculations were carried out

utilising the equations in Section 3.2 and the results were

compared with calculations from Tipperary Energy

Agency.

A number of financial scenarios were then investigated for

each installations which included the SEAI grant that was

available to certain public buildings, the French FiT rate

scenario, the German FiT rate scenario, the UK FiT rate

and export tariff scenario and a scenario without any grants

or subsidies. The European subsidies can be seen in section

2.2.2 while an SEAI grant of 50% of capital costs was

available for the installations in this paper. For each of the

scenarios it was investigated how payback period, NPV and

IRR could affect the installations over the 25 year lifetime

[36]. Payback period, NPV and IRR where calculated

utilising equations in Section 3.3 and the costings for each

of the installations can be seen in Appendix B. The nominal

interest rate was taken as 4.99% which is a green loan

available from Bank of Ireland [37] and the average

inflation rate was taken as 2.26% which was the average

inflation rate between 2001 and 2010 [15]. It was also

investigated how varying and constant electricity unit

prices would affect savings. Electricity prices are predicted

to increase on average of 4.75% each year for the

foreseeable future due to increasing oil prices and this

value was taken for varying electricity unit price

calculations in this paper [38]. It was also investigated for

the Nenagh installations how much CO2 emissions were

avoided since the sites became operational.

5. Results and Discussion

Section 5 will outline and discuss the results for each

installation through four headings which are Solar PV

Energy Output and Solar Radiation, Financial Comparison

of Installations and the heading Payback Period, Net

Present Value and Internal Rate of Return.

5.1 Solar PV Power Output and Solar Radiation

In this section it was investigated how 2015 solar radiation

levels compared to average solar radiation levels (1981-

2014) and also daily solar PV energy output for the Nenagh

Civic Offices installation will be presented [30]. It will also

be shown in this section how monthly solar PV output,

calculated using 2015 solar radiation data, compares to

solar PV output calculated using actual data. Figure 9

shows 2015 solar radiation levels compared to average

solar radiation levels for the Gurteen College synoptic

station in North Tipperary [ref].

Figure 9 shows that solar radiation levels were above

average for January, March, April and June and below

average for February, May and July. Due to some months

being above average for solar radiation this may cause the

annual prediction of solar PV energy output to be

overestimated compared to other years. However solar

radiation levels for recent years has been above 1981-2010

solar radiation averages [30].

Figure 9: Comparison of 2015 Solar Radiation Levels and Average Solar

Radiation for Gurteen College, Ireland [30]

Daily solar PV energy output from December 2014 to July

2015 can be seen for the Nenagh Civic Offices installation

in Figure 10.

0 50 100 150 200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2015 Solar Radiation

Average Solar Radiation(1981-2010)

Solar Radiation (kWh)

Page 6: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

6

Figure 10: Daily Solar PV Energy Output from December 2014- July 2015 for

the Nenagh Civic Offices Installation

Figure 10 shows that the PV energy output fluctuates

heavily throughout the year due to weather conditions and

varying solar radiation levels. The highest energy output

occurs during summer months while the lowest occurs

during winter months. It is noticeable that the pattern of

Figure 10 closely follows the pattern of Figure 9 from

January to July and this means that solar PV energy is

predictable over monthly periods, more so than wind

energy. The predictable pattern enforces the argument that

solar PV energy could be utilised in conjunction with wind

power as highest wind energy output occurs during night

hours and winter months, while solar PV energy is the

opposite [9].

Figure 11 shows monthly solar PV energy output for the

Nenagh Civic Offices installation including actual and

predicted data and also data calculated utilising 2015 Met

Eireann solar radiation data.

Figure 11: Comparison of Monthly Solar PV Energy Output using 2015 Met

��ireann and Actual and Predicted Data for Nenagh Civic Offices

It is clear from Figure 11 that monthly solar PV energy

output using 2015 solar radiation data closely follows the

pattern of the actual and predicted data. Solar PV energy

output for the Clonmel County Hall, Clonmel Fire Station

and Clonmel Machinery Yard Installations can be seen in

Appendix C and the same patterns can be seen for each

installation as Figure 10 and 11.

5.2 Financial Comparisons of Installations

All of the data for the 5 installations (Nenagh Civic

Offices, Clonmel County Hall, Clonmel Machinery Yard

and Nenagh Leisure Centre) was received from TEA.

Additional financial information for each installation, with

exception of Nenagh Leisure Centre, can be seen in

Appendix D. Table 4 shows a comparison of the financial

calculations in this paper and the TEA calculations for each

installation including PV annual kWh production, annual

value of PV production, annual % savings and the 10, 20

and 25 year unit prices.

Table 4 shows that the calculations in this paper for PV

annual kWh production, annual value of PV production,

annual % savings and the 10, 20 and 25 year unit prices

were higher than the TEA calculations for each installation.

Table 4: Comparison of Financial Calculations for Each Installation

This may be as a result of TEA calculations utilising

predicted data solely compared to actual data in this paper.

Also solar radiation has been above average this year so far

compared to 1981–2010 averages, however solar radiation

has been consistently above average in recent years so TEA

calculations may have under predicted solar PV energy

output. The MRSO data for the Nenagh Civic Offices site

also indicated a higher annual electricity load than the

annual electricity load utilised for TEA calculations. It can

also be seen from Table 4 that there is significant annual

cost savings on electricity once an installation becomes

profitable and this is without a FiT rate or export tariff. The

unit price (including the grant) also decreases substantially

throughout the life of the installation increasing the

attractiveness of the technology.

5.3 Payback Period, Net Present Value and Internal Rate

of Return

This section will discuss the payback period, NPV and IRR

for each installation under different scenarios. These

scenarios investigate different situations in which different

grants or tariffs could affect the financial feasibility of each

installation. These scenarios include No SEAI grants or

Tariffs, an SEAI grant of 50% (available for the

installations in this paper), a domestic ESB Electric Ireland

FiT rate, a French FiT rate, a German FiT rate or a UK FiT

rate in conjunction with an export tariff. Under these

scenarios payback period, NPV and IRR will be

investigated with constant and varying unit electricity price

for each installation. Also note with exception of the

Nenagh Civic Offices installation the UK export tariff was

not included due to unavailable MRSO data for the

Clonmel sites.

The payback period in years for each scenario can be seen

in Table 5 for constant and varying electricity unit price.

It can be seen in Table 5 that the payback period for each of

the scenarios with varying electricity unit price is lower

than the payback period for constant electricity unit price

and this increases the economic viability of the solar PV

installations. Electricity unit price is predicted to increase

on average by 4.75% annually for the foreseeable future

due to increasing fossil fuel prices and therefore this again

reinforces the argument that it is essential that Ireland

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

J F M A M J J

Ener

gy O

utp

ut

(kW

h)

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Energy Output(kWh)

Monthly Solar PV OutputUsing 2015 Met EireannData OnlyMonthly Solar PV OutputIncluding Actual andPredicted

Page 7: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

7

increases its energy security by introducing renewable

energy technologies to the national grid such as Solar PV

[38].

In regards to the different scenarios of subsidies and rates

investigated it is clear that the French FiT rate scenario has

the most favourable payback period closely followed by the

other scenarios with exception of the no SEAI grants or

tariffs scenario which lags far behind for each case and

installation. Table 5: Payback Period for Constant and Varying Electricity Unit Price

Graphs of payback period for each installation and scenario

can be seen in Appendix E.

The net present value (NPV) for each scenario can be seen

in Table 6 for a constant and varying electricity unit. Table 6: NPV for Constant and Varying Electricity Unit Price

Once the NPV of an installation is positive it becomes

profitable and it is clear from Table 6 that for each scenario

this is the case. Again similarly to the payback period due

to increasing electricity prices it enables the installations to

become more economically feasible compared to if the

electricity unit price remains constant. Once again the

French scenario is the most profitable closely followed by

the UK, German, domestic ESB and the SEAI grant of 50%

scenarios.

The internal rate of return (IRR) for each scenario can be

seen in Table 7 for a constant and varying electricity unit

price. Table 7: IRR for Constant and Varying Electricity Unit Price

IRR rates are ranked from highest to lowest and once again

the French scenario offers the most profitability.

Looking at the financial results for payback period, IRR

and NPV it is noticeable that the financial viability of the

installations in this paper is greatly enhanced by the SEAI

grant and it is equal if not better than some of the rates and

tariffs available in Europe. However this grant is no longer

available under SEAI’s Better Energy Work Places

programme [11]. The ESB FiT rate of €0.09/kWh is also

only available for domestic systems and it is the only

electricity provider in Ireland that offers this rate.

For the majority of installations in Ireland there are no

SEAI grants or tariffs available along with no FiT rates.

The payback period would have been double if there were

no grants available for the installations making them barely

economically viable as almost half of the installations

lifespan would have expired before they became profitable.

When looking at Irelands European counterparts this

payback period would have been at least 4 – 5 years less.

Also when looking at NPV and IRR for each installation it

is evident that the SEAI grant allows the installations to be

substantially viable similar to the European scenarios but

with no grants, FiT rates or export tariffs IRR and NPV is

drastically reduced thus significantly impacting economic

viability.

Ireland needs to embrace solar PV technology as gross

electricity consumption from renewable energy

technologies is only 20.1%, well below the target of 40%.

Also the cost of all energy imported to Ireland was €.6.7

billion, as of 2013, putting huge strain on the Irish

economy [2]. Although there has been substantial

investment in wind technology in Ireland, development of

Page 8: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

8

solar PV has been sparse. To incentivise the introduction of

solar PV there needs to be legislation introduced by the

Irish Government for a FiT rate or other grants and

subsidies to reduce payback period, NPV and IRR for

installations. For example the domestic ESB FiT rate of

€0.09/kWh could be offered by every electricity supplier

and to commercial installations also. There needs to be a

larger quantity of green loans available with significant

improvement in sums provided as the Green loan rate from

Bank of Ireland, utilised for calculations in this paper, only

has a €100m fund available for all applications in Ireland

[37].

It is clear from the calculations of payback period, NPV

and IRR that European scenarios for installing solar PV are

more favourable and these calculations are without grants

offered by these countries. The subsidies and FiT rates

offered by France, the UK and Germany has caused these

countries to become world leaders in terms of solar PV and

Ireland could learn lessons from these countries to

incentivise solar PV technology.

5.4: Potential for Export and 𝑪𝑶𝟐 Emissions Prevented

This section will discuss the potential for exporting

electricity along with avoided CO2 emissions from the

Nenagh Civic Offices and Nenagh Leisure Centre

installations. Figure 12 (a) and (b) shows the PV energy

output and electricity consumption for the 1st of January

and the 9th of June 2015 for the Nenagh Civic Offices

Installation. It can be seen from Figure 12 that there is no

potential for export of PV energy on the 1st of January

while there is potential on the 6th of June.

Figure 12 (a) Comparison of PV Energy Output and Electricity

Consumption on the 1st of January and (b) on the 6th of June both for

the Nenagh Civic Offices Installation

There would typically be little or no potential for export

during winter months while there would be potential in

months from late spring to early autumn due to increased

solar radiation levels. For the Nenagh Civic Offices

installation only 0.56% of solar PV energy output would be

available for export and the majority is utilised internally

while for the Nenagh Leisure Centre installation 3.98% of

PV energy is available for export. The rate of export is

subjective to the ratio of PV energy output to electricity

consumption so an installation of similar size on a smaller

building would have a larger potential for export. There

needs to be an export tariff introduced in Ireland, similar to

the UK, to incentivise PV installations as there is currently

no payment for solar PV energy exported onto the local

grid.

As of late July, since the Nenagh Civic Offices installation

became operational on the 22nd December 2014 a total of

8.8 tonnes equivalent of CO2 have been avoided and for the

Nenagh Leisure Centre installation 8.04 tonnes of CO2

equivalent have been avoided since the 12th March 2015. If

there was an increase of installations of this size in Ireland

it would help reduce national CO2 emissions which are

17% above 1990 levels.

6. Conclusions

The calculations in this paper for PV annual kWh

production, annual value of PV production, and the 10, 20

and 25 year unit prices were more favourable than the

Tipperary Energy Agency calculations for each installation

increasing the economic viability. Payback period NPV and

IRR were more favourable when varying electricity unit

prices were utilised compared to constant electricity unit

prices for each installation, increasing the economic

viability of installations compared to other technologies. It

is essential that Ireland introduces a higher percentage of

renewable energy technologies, such as solar PV, to help

reach a target of 40% electricity consumption from

renewable energy technologies by 2020 and to increase

Ireland’s energy security. The installations are

economically viable for each scenario investigated however

there needs to be widespread grants, subsidies, FiT rates

and export tariffs available in Ireland as payback period is

too high and NPV and IRR are too low if they are not

available. There is also a need for a larger quantity of green

loans available from lending institutions. The Nenagh Civic

Offices installation avoided 8.8 tonnes of CO2 and for the

Nenagh Leisure Centre installation 8.04 tonnes of CO2 have

been avoided and if there was an increase of installations of

this size in Ireland it would help reduce CO2 emissions

which are 17% above 1990 levels.

7. Recommendations for Future Work

There are a number of recommendations to advance the

work carried out in this paper. It would be favourable to

record the solar PV output data over one year and then

carry out the financial analysis for each installation as the

data in this paper was only recorded over a period of 8

months.

It was also noticed during the progression of this study that

there has been no study carried out in Ireland into how an

increased percentage of solar PV energy would affect the

national fuel mix and electricity grid so this would be

desirable.

8. Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Paul Cullen, an energy engineer with

Tipperary Energy Agency, who supplied all of the solar PV

energy output data and installation information for this

paper. Without Paul none of this paper would have been

possible. I would also like to thank Tipperary Energy

Agency for allowing access to the installations. Finally I

would like to thank Dr. Reena Cole for all of her invaluable

advice.

0

10

20

30

40

00:00 12:00 00:00

Po

wer

(k

Wh

)

PV Output Electricity Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

00:00 12:00 00:00

Po

wer

(k

Wh

)

PV Output Electricity Consumption

(a)

(b)

Page 9: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015

9

9. References [1] Irish Government, Department of Communications, Energy and

Natural Resources (2010), National Renewable Energy Action Plan,

Government Publications Office, Dublin.

[2] Howley, M., Holland, M. and Dineen, D. (2014) Energy in Ireland

1990-2013, Dublin: Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland. [3] Howley, M., Holland, M. and Dineen, D. (2014) Energy in Ireland

1990-2013, Dublin: Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, pg. 15,

illus. [4] Gorey, C. (2014) Ireland's largest solar project is now completed.

[ONLINE] Available at: https://www.siliconrepublic.com/earth-

science/2014/10/07/irelands-largest-solar-power-project-is-now-completed [Accessed: 8th January 2015].

[5] Irish Solar Energy Association (2014) Submission for Green Paper

on Energy Policy in Ireland, Dublin: Irish Solar Energy Association. [6] Department of Energy and Climate Change UK. (2015) Solar

photovoltaics deployment. [ONLINE] Available

at: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment. [Accessed 02 August 15].

[7] Department of Energy and Climate Change UK (2013) UK Solar PV

Strategy Part 1: Roadmap to a Brighter Future, London: UK

Government.

[8] Irish Solar Energy Association (2014) Submission for Green Paper

on Energy Policy in Ireland, Dublin: Irish Solar Energy Association, pg. 3, illus.

[9] Santos-Alamillos, F. J., Vazquez, D., Ruiz-Arias, J.A., Von Bremen,

L. and Tovar-Pescudor, J. (2015) ‘ Combining wind farms with concentrating solar plants to provide stable renewable power’

Renewable Energy, 76, 539-550.

[10] Lightsource Renewable Energy Limited (2015) Solar PV in Ireland [11] Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (2015) REFIT Schemes and

Supports. [ONLINE] Available

at: http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/energy/en-ie/Renewable-Energy/Pages/Refit-Schemes-Landing-Page.aspx [Accessed: 17th

January 2015].

[12] Masson, G., Orlandi, S. and Rekinger, M. (2014) Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014-2018, Sweden: European

Photovoltaic Industry Association.

[13] Masson, G., Orlandi, S. and Rekinger, M. (2014) Global Market

Outlook for Photovoltaics 2014-2018, Sweden: European

Photovoltaic Industry Association, pg. 24, illus. [14] Feed-In Tariffs LTD (2015) What are Feed-In Tariffs [online],

available: http://www.fitariffs.co.uk/FITs/ [accessed 26 Jan 2015].

[15] Li, Z., Reynolds, A. and Boyle, F. (2014) ‘Domestic integration of micro-renewable electricity generation in Ireland- The current status

and economic reality’, Renewable Energy, (64), 244-254.

[16] ESB Customer Supply (2009) Micro Generation Domestic Payment Scheme.

[17] Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (2015) National Energy

Services Framework. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.seai.ie/Your_Business/National_Energy_Services_Fr

amework [Accessed: 05 June 2015].

[18] Dimplex Renewables (2011) ROI Grant Schemes. [ONLINE] Available at:

http://www.dimplexrenewables.com/renewable-heating/ROI-

GRANT-SCHEMES [Accessed: 30th June 2015].

[19] Campoccia, A., Dusonchet. L., Talaretti, E. and Zizzo, G. (2014)

‘An analysis of feed in tariffs for solar PV in six representative

countries of the European Union’, Solar Energy, 107, 530-542. [20] Sahu, B., K. (2015) ‘A study on global solar PV energy

developments and policies with special focus on the top ten solar PV

power producing countries’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, (43), 621-634.

[21] Dusonchet, L. and Telaretti, E. (2015) ‘Comparative economic

analysis of support policies for solar PV in the most representative EU countries’ Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42, 986-

998.

[22] Torbati, Y. (2012) ‘UK wants sustained cuts to solar panel tariffs’, Reuters [ONLINE], available:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/02/09/uk-solar-tariff-

idUKTRE8180XS20120209 [accessed 20 Jan 2015]. [23] Krauter, S. C. W. (2006) Solar Electric Power Generation:

Photovoltaic Energy Systems, Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer- Verlag

Berlin Heidelberg. [24] Roberts, S. And Guariento, N. (2009) Building Integrated

Photovoltaics: A Handbook, Basel: Birkha ser Basel.

[25] Markvart, T. (1994) Solar Energy, Chichester: John Wiley & sons Ltd.

[26] Chen, C, J. (2011) Physics of Solar Energy, Hoboken: John Wiley &

Sons, Inc., pg. 22, illus.

[27] Chen, C, J. (2011) Physics of Solar Energy, Hoboken: John Wiley &

Sons, Inc.

[28] Solartwin (2014) Solar PV (Electric) Power Systems – All the useful basic info. [ONLINE] Available

at: http://www.solartwin.com/solartwin-features/basic/solar-electric-

pv-systems [Accessed: 26th January 2015]. [29] Lotsch, H. K. V. (2005) Photovoltaic Solar Energy Generation,

Berlin, Heidleberg: Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

[30] Met Eireann (2015) Monthly Data. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-

data.asp?Num=1475 [Accessed: 3rd March 2015].

[31] S., Yadev (2015) 'Calculations of Solar Energy Output', academia.edu, [ONLINE]. Available at:

http://www.academia.edu/9005661/CALCULATIONS_OF_SOLAR_ENERGY_OUTPUT [Accessed: 12th March 2015].

[32] Walsh, S. (2010) 'A summary of climate averages for Ireland, 1981-

2010', Met Éireann, 14, Climatological Note. [33] Rolann, A. (2014), Simplify, Powerpoint presentation, Evikali,

Bautavej.

[34] Met Eireann (2015) Monthly Data. [ONLINE] Available at: http://www.met.ie/about/weatherobservingstations/climap.asp

[Accessed: 3rd March 2015], illus.

[35] Meter Registration System Operator (2015) About the Meter Registration System Operator. [ONLINE] Available

at: http://www.mrso.ie/about_mrso/index.htm [Accessed: 13th April

2015]. [36] Cullen, P. (2015) Personal communication, 21st January 2015.

[37] Bank of Ireland (2011) Green Business Loan, Dublin.

[38] Trading Economics (2015) Ireland Inflation Rate. [ONLINE] Available

at:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ireland/inflation-

cpi [Accessed: 23 March 2015]. [39] Hosford, B. (2015) Interim Report: An Economic Analysis of Solar

Photovoltaic Installations in Ireland, University of Limerick.

Page 10: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix A

A-1

APPENDIX A: Monthly Global Solar Radiation Data

Table A-1: Monthly Global Solar Radiation Data for Gurteen College [30]

Period Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual

1981-2010

(MJ/𝐦𝟐)

71.90 128.50 246.80 387.60 509.00 502.20 478.60 408.40 296.00 117.80 89.50 57.00 3,293.30

2012 (MJ/𝐦𝟐) 70.29 113.13 260.93 370.45 503.42 420.29 411.02 415.16 303.33 157.84 99.50 58.83 3,184.19

2013 (MJ/𝐦𝟐) 69.42 131.18 206.32 424.99 503.42 558.77 602.50 408.00 282.70 193.96 98.45 56.97 3,536.68

2014 (MJ/𝐦𝟐) 73.45 131.21 255.60 419.98 430.96 541.53 498.06 419.89 340.89 180.35 99.46 59.30 3,450.68

2015 (MJ/𝐦𝟐) 82.25 121.75 305.28 488.01 461.61 560.22 462.59

2015

(kWh/𝐦𝟐)

22.85 33.82 84.80 135.56 128.23 155.62 128.5

2015 Average

Annual (%)

2.44 3.62 9.07 14.50 13.71 16.64 13.74

Average Solar

Radiation

1981-2014 (%)

2.12 3.74 7.23 11.90 14.50 14.99 14.73 12.29 9.10 4.81 2.88 1.73

Average

kWh/m2 (1981-

2014)

19.97 35.69 68.56 107.67 141.39 139.50 132.94 113.44 82.22 32.72 24.86 15.83 914.81

Page 11: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix B

B-1

APPENDIX B: Technical Specifications and Costings of Solar PV Installations

Table B-1: Technical Specifications of Solar PV Installations [36]

Location No of Modules PV Measured

Area (𝐦𝟐)

Peak Power

(kWp)

Predicted kWh

Generated per

Annum

(kWh)

Annual Yield

(kWh/kWp)

Performance

Ratio

(Yield/reference

Yield)

Nenagh Civic

Offices

180 297.18 45 40,815 907 .9

County Hall

Clonmel

140 225.40 35 33,486 957 .96

Clonmel

Machinery Yard

104 171.40 26 21,736 836 .84

Clonmel Fire

Station

60 99.06 15 14,280 952 .95

Nenagh Leisure

Centre

180 297.18 45 37,035 823 .82

Table B-2: Additional Technical Specifications of Solar PV Installations [36]

Location Azimuth

Angle

(°)

Inclination

(°)

No of

Inverters

Active Power

Ratio

(%)

Energy Usability Factor (%) Line Losses (in % of PV

energy)

Nenagh Civic

Offices

-22

10

2

82.2

99.9

0.37

County Hall

Clonmel 0

(South) and 90

(West)

30 (South) and 30 (West)

2

85.7

99.9

0.44

Clonmel

Machinery

Yard

90 (East

and West)

10 (East and West)

2

80.8

100

0.43

Clonmel Fire

Station

-30

25

1

100

100

0.19

Nenagh

Leisure

Centre

-100 (East)

and 80 (West)

2 0 (East and

West)

2

75.6

99.9

0.55

Table B-3: Costing’s for Solar PV Installations [36]

Location Complete PV

System Including

Installation

Structural

Design Survey

and Report

Fully Certified

Health and

Safety Report

Site Accessibility

Total Cost

Excluding VAT

Nenagh Civic

Offices

€58,078

€1,700

€720

-

€60,498

Clonmel

Machinery Yard

€32,210

€1,550

€720

€1,220

€34,240

Clonmel Fire

Station

€20,268

€1,800

€780

€2,100

€24,948

Clonmel County

Hall

€44,631

€1,800

€900

€3,200

€50,531

Nenagh Leisure

Centre

€51,126

€1,550

€720

€780

€54,176

Page 12: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix C

C-1

APPENDIX C: Monthly Solar PV Energy Output for Each Installation

Table C-1: Monthly Solar PV Energy Output for Nenagh Civic Offices

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Estimated

Annual Energy

Output

Including

Actual

and

Predicted

(kWh)

1,328

1,897

3,972

5,585

5,433

5,901

5,134

5,439

4,027

2,130

1,273

764

44,275

Energy

Output

Using

Met

��ireann

Data

(kWh)

925

1,369

3,433

5,489

5,192

6,301

5,203

Table C-2: Monthly Solar PV Energy Output for Clonmel County Hall

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Estimated

Annual Energy

Output

Including

Actual

and

Predicted

(kWh)

1,083

1,508

3,152

4,727

4,328

4,795

5,383

4,491

3,325

1,758

1,051

947

36,555

Energy

Output

Using

Met

��ireann

Data

(kWh)

756.40

1,119

2,807

4,487

4,245

5,151

5,152

Figure C-1: Comparison of Monthly Solar PV Energy Output Using 2015 Solar Radiation Data and Actual and Predicted Data for

Clonmel County Hall

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Energy Output (kWh)

Monthly Solar PV Output Using2015 Met Eireann Data Only

Monthly Solar PV OutputIncluding Actual and Predicted

Page 13: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix C

C-2

Figure C-2: Daily Solar PV Energy Output from Dec 2014 – July 2015 for Clonmel County Hall

Table C-3: Monthly Solar PV Energy Output for Clonmel Fire Station

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Estimated

Annual Energy

Output

Including

Actual

and

Predicted

(kWh)

446

635

1,392

2,122

1,964

2,200

2,397

1,999

1,480

783

468

385

16,275

Energy

Output

Using

Met

��ireann

Data

(kWh)

325

481

1,208

1,931

1,826

2,217

1,831

Figure C-3: Comparison of Monthly Solar PV Energy Output Using 2015 Solar Radiation Data and Actual and Predicted Data for

Clonmel Fire Station

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Ene

rgy

(kW

h)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Energy Output (kWh)

Monthly Solar PV Output Using2015 Met Eireann Data Only

Monthly Solar PV OutputIncluding Actual and Predicted

Page 14: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix C

C-3

Figure C-4: Daily Solar PV Energy Output from Dec 2014 – July 2015 for Clonmel Fire Station

Table C-4: Monthly Solar PV Energy Output for Clonmel Machinery Yard

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Estimated

Annual Energy

Output

Including

Actual and

Predicted

(kWh)

451

757

1,882

3,144

3,210

3,574

3,501

2,921

2,162

1,143

684

340

23,775

Energy

Output Using

Met ��ireann

Data (kWh)

498

738

1,851

2,960

2,799

3,398

2,806

Figure C-5: Comparison of Monthly Solar PV Energy Output Using 2015 Solar Radiation Data and Actual and Predicted Data for

Clonmel Machinery Yard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Ene

rgy

(kW

h)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Energy Output (kWh)

Monthly Solar PV Output Using2015 Met Eireann Data Only

Monthly Solar PV OutputIncluding Actual and Predicted

Page 15: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix C

C-4

Figure C-6: Daily Solar PV Energy Output from Dec 2014 – July 2015 for Clonmel Machinery Yard

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Ene

rgy

(kW

h)

Page 16: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix D

D-1

Appendix D: Financial and Technical Calculations for Each Installation Table D-1: Financial and Technical Calculations Including Calculations from TEA

Site Annual kWh

Consumption

Unit Price

(€/kwh)

Annual

Electricity

Cost

1 Year Unit Price

(€/kwh) Not Inc.

Grant

10 Year Unit Price

(€/kwh) Not Inc.

Grant

20 Year Unit

Price (€/kwh)

Not Inc. Grant

Cost Per kW

Installed

Nenagh Civic

Offices

503,168 €0.1556 €78,293 €0.8037 €0.0804 €0.0402 €1,579.59

Nenagh Civic

Offices (TEA Calculations)

503,168 €0.1556 €76,199 €0.8718 €0.0872 €0.0436 €1,579.59

Clonmel

County Hall

265,000 €0.1556 €41,234 €0.8175 €0.0818 €0.0409 €1,707.69

Clonmel

County Hall (TEA

Calculations)

265,000 €0.1556 €41,234 €0.8937 €0.0894 €0.0447 €1,707.69

Clonmel Fire Station

110,300 €0.1711 €18,872 €0.9441 €0.0944 €0.0472 €2,048.83

Clonmel Fire

Station (TEA

Calculations)

110,300 €0.1711 €18,872 €1.0795 €0.1080 €0.0540 €2,048.83

Clonmel Machinery

Yard

212,480 €0.1556 €33,062 €0.8493 €0.0849 €0.0425 €1,553.20

Clonmel Machinery

Yard

212,480 €0.1556 €33,062 €0.9516 €0.0952 €0.0476 €1,553.20

Page 17: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix E

E-1

Appendix E: Payback Period

Figure E-1: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Nenagh Civic Offices (Constant Electricity Unit Price)

Figure E-2: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Nenagh Civic Offices (Varying Electricity Unit Price)

-€100,000

-€50,000

€0

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh)

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

-€100,000

€0

€100,000

€200,000

€300,000

€400,000

€500,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh)

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

Page 18: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix E

E-2

Figure E-3: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel County Hall (Constant Electricity Unit Price)

Figure E-4: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel County Hall (Varying Electricity Unit Price)

-€100,000

-€50,000

€0

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh))

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

-€100,000

-€50,000

€0

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

€300,000

€350,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh)French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh))UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

Page 19: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix E

E-3

Figure E-5: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel Fire Station (Constant Electricity Unit Price)

Figure E-6: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel Fire Station (Varying Electricity Unit Price)

-€40,000

-€20,000

€0

€20,000

€40,000

€60,000

€80,000

€100,000

€120,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh)

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

-€40,000

-€20,000

€0

€20,000

€40,000

€60,000

€80,000

€100,000

€120,000

€140,000

€160,000

€180,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh))

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

Page 20: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix E

E-4

Figure E-7: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel Machinery Yard (Constant Electricity Unit Price)

Figure E-8: Payback Period under Different Scenarios for Clonmel Machinery Yard (Varying Electricity Unit Price)

-€50,000

€0

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh)

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

-€50,000

€0

€50,000

€100,000

€150,000

€200,000

€250,000

0 5 10 15 20 25

Bal

ance

(€

)

Time (Years)

No SEAI Grants or Tariffs

SEAI Grant (50%)

Domestic ESB FiT Rate (€0.09/kWh)

French FiT Rate (€0.1727/kWh or €0.1817/kWh)

German FiT Rate (€0.1191/kWh or €0.1335/kWh)

UK FiT Rate (€0.1325/kWh) and Export Tariff (€0.0554/kWh)

Page 21: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix F

F-1

Appendix F: Turnitin Originality Report

Turnitin Originality Report Bryan Hosford by Bryan Hosford From Final Paper (MEng Research Project 2014-15)

Processed on 05-Aug-2015 2:08 AM IST ID: 559534553 Word Count: 6898

Similarity Index

12% Similarity by Source Internet Sources:

4% Publications:

5% Student Papers:

10%

sources:

1 2% match (student papers from 12-Dec-2014) Submitted to University of Limerick on 2014-12-12

2 1% match (student papers from 06-Feb-2015) Submitted to University of Limerick on 2015-02-06

3 < 1% match (student papers from 12-Sep-2013) Submitted to University of Limerick on 2013-09-12

4 < 1% match (student papers from 13-Apr-2015) Submitted to Birkbeck College on 2015-04-13

5 < 1% match (student papers from 18-Nov-2014) Submitted to University of Ulster on 2014-11-18

6 < 1% match (publications) Li, Z.. "Domestic application of solar PV systems in Ireland: The reality of their economic viability", Energy, 201110

7 < 1% match (student papers from 12-Mar-2015) Submitted to Florida Gulf Coast University on 2015-03-12

8 < 1% match (student papers from 27-Apr-2015) Submitted to Coventry University on 2015-04-27

9 < 1% match (student papers from 22-Apr-2013) Submitted to University College London on 2013-04-22

10 < 1% match (student papers from 06-May-2014) Submitted to Aston University on 2014-05-06

11 < 1% match (student papers from 25-Jun-2015) Submitted to University of Derby on 2015-06-25

Page 22: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix F

F-2

12 < 1% match (student papers from 27-Apr-2015) Submitted to University of Bath on 2015-04-27

13 < 1% match (Internet from 23-Dec-2010) http://www.termpaperslab.com/essay-on-risk-analysis-investment/23286.html

14 < 1% match (student papers from 05-Jun-2015) Submitted to Curtin University of Technology on 2015-06-05

15 < 1% match (student papers from 20-Aug-2012) Submitted to University of Limerick on 2012-08-20

16 < 1% match (student papers from 25-Apr-2014) Submitted to Swansea Metropolitan University on 2014-04-25

17 < 1% match (student papers from 23-Apr-2012) Submitted to The University of Manchester on 2012-04-23

18 < 1% match (student papers from 16-Apr-2013) Submitted to Napier University on 2013-04-16

19 < 1% match (student papers from 15-Apr-2015) Submitted to University of Worcester on 2015-04-15

20 < 1% match (Internet from 20-Jun-2013) http://www.blurtit.com/q5442456.html

21 < 1% match (publications) Campoccia, A., L. Dusonchet, E. Telaretti, and G. Zizzo. "An analysis of feed’in tariffs for solar PV in six representative countries of the European Union", Solar Energy, 2014.

22 < 1% match (publications) Gray, P.J., R.M. O’Higgins, and C.T. McCarthy. "Effect of thickness and laminate taper on the stiffness, strength and secondary bending of single-lap, single-bolt countersunk composite joints", Composite Structures, 2014.

23 < 1% match (student papers from 12-May-2014) Submitted to Dublin City University on 2014-05-12

24 < 1% match (student papers from 05-May-2014) Submitted to National University of Ireland, Maynooth on 2014-05-05

25 < 1% match (Internet from 14-Jan-2014) http://www.met.ie/UserMediaUpl/file/Irelands_Climate_25092013_LR.pdf

26 < 1% match (publications) Foley, Aoife, Barry Tyther, Patrick Calnan, and Brian Ó Gallachóir. "Impacts of Electric Vehicle charging under electricity market operations", Applied Energy, 2013.

27 < 1% match (student papers from 27-Mar-2015) Submitted to Cardiff University on 2015-03-27

28

Page 23: An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in … · 2016-04-06 · Bryan Hosford 10105735 M.Eng. Research Project 2014/2015 1 An Economic Analysis of Solar Photovoltaic

Appendix F

F-3

< 1% match (student papers from 18-Aug-2012) Submitted to Western Governors University on 2012-08-18

29 < 1% match (Internet from 10-Nov-2008) http://www.beingboring.com/old/source/blather_0404.html

30 < 1% match (publications) Zahabiyoun, B., M. R. Goodarzi, A. R. Massah Bavani, and H. M. Azamathulla. "Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Gharesou River Basin Using SWAT Hydrological Model", CLEAN - Soil Air Water, 2013.

31 < 1% match (student papers from 21-Aug-2012) Submitted to University of Limerick on 2012-08-21

32 < 1% match (Internet from 26-Feb-2014) http://sob.nilebasin.org/pdf/Chapter_2_Water%20resources.pdf

33 < 1% match (publications) Adachi, Chris, and Ian H. Rowlands. "The Role of Policies in Supporting the Diffusion of Solar Photovoltaic Systems: Experiences with Ontario, Canada’s Renewable Energy Standard Offer Program", Sustainability, 2009.

34 < 1% match (publications) Huld, Thomas, and Ana Amillo. "Estimating PV Module Performance over Large Geographical Regions: The Role of Irradiance, Air Temperature, Wind Speed and Solar Spectrum", Energies, 2015.

35 < 1% match (student papers from 12-Oct-2006) Submitted to Colorado Technical University Online on 2006-10-12

36 < 1% match (publications) Saunders, M., B. Tobin, C. Sweeney, M. Gioria, G. Benanti, E. Cacciotti, and B.A. Osborne. "Impacts of exceptional and extreme inter-annual climatic events on the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a Sitka spruce forest", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2014.

37 < 1% match (publications) Srinivasan, Radhakrishnan, Vijay Singh, Ronald L. Belyea, Kent D. Rausch, Robert A. Moreau, and M. E. Tumbleson. "Economics of Fiber Separation from Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS) Using Sieving and Elutriation", Cereal Chemistry, 2006.