An Application of Text Mining in Strategic Technical Planning

Paul Frey – Search Technology, Inc.

Nils Newman – Intelligent Information Services Corp.

Robert Watts – U.S. Army TACOM

Alan Porter – Georgia Institute of Technology

Symposium on Technical Intelligence

Division of Chemical Information

American Chemical Society National Meeting

San Diego California, April 4, 2001

Preliminary Comments

• A word of caution …– I am one of those people that previous speakers warned

you about, because …– I make and sell “hammers.”– a.k.a. software tools to assist (not replace!) a skilled

Technical Intelligence analyst

• Work reported occurred in late 1996– Using an earlier prototype of VantagePoint– Screen-shots in this presentation are re-creations – But the story is true

Statement of the Problem

Domain: U.S. Army Tank-automotive and Armaments Command (TACOM)

• Replacement of high-cost, out-of-tolerance engine components is expensive

• Potential Solution: Recondition worn-out components using thermal-spray coatings

• Institutional Barrier: Related R&D program in early 1980’s was “too early”

Innovation Forecasting

• Search on basic topical terms in multiple data sources

• Examine results to refine query and re-do search• Plot major trends and model the life cycle• Identify qualitative categories for assessment of

technology life cycle (e.g., academic and corporate research)

• Slice data by time and compare• Identify and analyze special areas (e.g., gap

analysis)

Initial Query

• EI Compendex

• “Ceramic” NEAR “Engine” (and variants)

• ~800 records

Examine Publication Trend by Industry Segment (Overview)

1. Import the raw data (Import Filters/Editor)2. Extract Year of Publication from a coded

field (Thesaurus)3. Clean up “Corporate Source” field4. Assign industry segment in “Corporate

Source” field (Thesaurus Groups)5. Create a co-occurrence matrix6. Plot the trend (VBScript MS Excel)

Extract Publication Year

• Capture raw data • Apply a thesaurus to condense the raw data

User-managed thesauri are based on “Regular Expressions”

Clean-up Corporate Source Field

• Automatic

• with Manual confirmation – Optional, but

recommended

• Save and/or merge clean-up operations into a thesaurus for re-use

Categorize Corporate Sources

• Create groups using a thesaurus– Corporation

– Laboratory

– University

Cumulative Publication Trends

• Co-occurrence matrix

• Plot in Excel using VBScript

So …

• It looks like something significant happened in the mid-80’s to radically increase the publication rate.

• It also looks like things have slowed down in (then) recent years (early- to mid-90’s).

• Has the technology has matured?

• Is it ready to transition?

Analyze Selected Areas

U.S. Patents – Ceramic Coating (cumulative)

Forecasting – Counting Patents

• Plot

• Model(Coeff. Det. > 0.95)

• Predict“significant technology growth in the next 9 years”

• Monitor(Leap to today)

Look for existing forecasts• Create groups of

records using a thesaurus (e.g. “forecast”“projection”“future”“market study”)

• Made “leap” to electronics industry

• Identified expert• The rest is history

PIEZOELECTRIC DEVICES - Manufacture

Results

• 1997– Prepared case for new effort on reconditioning engine

components using thermal-spray coatings

– U.S. Army invested $2M in 5-year R&D program

• Today– Installing reconditioning equipment at Red River Army

Depot for production use

– Expected Near-term payback ~ $5.5M

References and Contact Information

• “Innovation Forecasting” by Robert J. Watts and Alan L. Porter, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 56, 25-47 (1997).

• Paul Frey, Search Technology, Inc., Atlanta, GA– PaulF@searchtech.com– 770.441.1457

• Web Sites– www.searchtech.com– www.TheVantagePoint.com