Alaska Population ProjectionsAlaska Population Projections • 2010 – 2035 5 This report presents...

Alaska Population Projections • 2010 – 2035 1

Alaska Population Projections2010 – 2035

State of AlaskaSean Parnell, Governor

Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce DevelopmentDavid G. Stone, Acting Commissioner

Brynn Keith Director, Administrative Services

Dan Robinson Chief, Research and Analysis

Prepared by:

Eddie HunsingerState Demographer

David HowellDemographer

Sara WhitneyEditor

April 2012

Cover image courtesy of Flickr user DCSL.

This publication was prepared by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development,Research and Analysis Section.

For more information, call the Research and Analysis Section at (907) 465-5970, or [email protected]


Table of ContentsAlaska Population Projections • 2010 – 2035

Page 4 Preface 5 Introduction 6 Section 1 Alaska Statewide Population Projections 37 Section 2 Alaska Native and Non-Native Population Projections 44 Section 3 Alaska Region, Borough, and Census Area Population Projections 119 Appendix A Technical Notes 121 Appendix B Technical References

LIST OF TABLES

7 Table 1.1 Annual Components of Population Change for Alaska, 1959 – 2010 9 Table 1.2 Life Expectancy at Birth: Alaska (Total and Native) and the United States, 1970 – 2030 11 Table 1.3 Projected Annual Components of Population Change for Alaska, 2010 – 2035 12 Table 1.4 Population Growth Projections for Alaska, 2010 – 2035 21 Table 1.5 Alaska Population Estimates by Age and Sex, 2010 22 Table 1.6 Alaska Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2015 – 2035 40 Table 2.1-2.2 Alaska Native and Non-Native Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035

46 Table 3.1 Alaska Population by Region, Borough, and Census Area, 2010 – 2035 47 Table 3.2-3.37 Alaska Region, Borough, and Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035 LIST OF FIGURES

6 Figure 1.1 Annual Components of Population Change for Alaska, 1947 – 2010 10 Figure 1.2 Alaska Total Fertility Rate, 1975 – 2035 10 Figure 1.3 Alaska Net Migration Ratio, 1980 – 2035 11 Figure 1.4 Alaska Total Population, 1945 – 2035 13 Figure 1.5 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2010 14 Figure 1.6 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2015 15 Figure 1.7 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2020 16 Figure 1.8 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2025 17 Figure 1.9 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2030


Table of ContentsAlaska Population Projections • 2010 – 2035

Page

18 Figure 1.10 Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2035 19 Figure 1.11 Population Age 0-4, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 19 Figure 1.12 Population Age 5-10, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 19 Figure 1.13 Population Age 11-13, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 19 Figure 1.14 Population Age 14-17, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 20 Figure 1.15 Population Age 18-24, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 20 Figure 1.16 Population Age 18-64, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 20 Figure 1.17 Population Age 65+, Alaska, 2010 – 2035 38 Figure 2.1 Alaska Native and Non-Native Estimated Population by Age and Sex, 2010 39 Figure 2.2 Alaska Native and Non-Native Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2035

45 Figure 3.1 Alaska Population by Economic Region: 1970 – 2010 Estimated; 2015 – 2035 Projected


This report describes Alaska’s projected future population, based on historical data on population size and rates of fertility, mortality, and migration. These projections are a reference to provide planners and policy makers with the possible outcomes of a series of demographic events.

It is important to note that Alaska is susceptible to many unpredictable events, and that no demographer or economist is able to foresee the future. The projections presented here are based on historical population trends and selected future scenarios.

Special acknowledgment goes to the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services, the Alaska Department of Revenue, and the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development for providing essential information for these projections. Special thanks also goes to the Alaska Department of Health and Social Services for fi nancial support during the production of these projections.

Comments or suggestions about the content or format of this publication are welcome. Many of the most requested statistics in this document are also available on the Research and Analysis Web site at: labor.alaska.gov/research/. Send requests for demographic projections information to David Howell, Research and Analysis Section, Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, P.O. Box 115501, Juneau, AK 99811-5501. Telephone: (907) 465-5970; FAX: (907) 465-4506; e-mail: [email protected].

Preface


This report presents Alaska population projections for 2010 through 2035, by age and sex. Additionally, it gives 2010 – 2035 projections for the populations of Alaska’s boroughs, census areas, and Native populations by age and sex.

Population projections are distinct from population estimates in that estimates use current and historical data to make statements about the present and past population, while projections use expected or extrapolated data to make statements about future populations. There is much uncertainty in population projections, as it is not possible to predict future events — however, projections based on reasoned assumptions are an important tool for planners and policy makers.

To create this set of population projections, the Research and Analysis Section at the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development used a “cohort component” technique. Under this approach, the population of each sex was separated into age groups and aged forward in time, adding projected births and in-migrants and subtracting projected deaths and out-migrants. The projection began with Alaska’s July 2010 population estimates and ended with the 2035 population projections. Appendix A at the end of the text provides technical details.

The “July 1” reference dates are for the full time resident population on July 1. Seasonal populations may be higher than the full time resident population.

The report begins with a description of the components of population change for Alaska, then describes the results of the statewide projections. Next, it presents the components of population change that were applied to the Alaska Native projections, and the results of the population projections for Native and non-Native Alaskans. Finally, the report gives the components of population change that were used in the borough and census area projections, and the results of those projections.

Summary of Statewide Projections

Alaska’s statewide population is projected to increase from 714,142 in 2010 to 915,211 in 2035. As Alaska’s population ages in the coming years, annual growth is expected to slow. Alaska’s population aged 65+ is expected to grow at the fastest rate over the projection period, followed by the population aged 0-17. The population aged 18-64 is projected to increase at the slowest rate. Due to the great uncertainty about growth across the period, this report presents alternate “high” and “low” scenarios.

For the statewide projections, the population was divided into single-year age groups and then projected forward one year at a time. This process was repeated three times and held mortality, fertility, and out-migration rates constant but varied net-migration.

Summary of Alaska Native Projections

Alaska’s Native population is expected to continue to grow over the projection period, from 122,480 in 2010 to 159,633 in 2035. Much like the state as a whole, Alaska Native population growth is expected to slow due to aging.

To create the Native and non-Native projections, the Native population was divided into fi ve-year age groups by sex, and then projected forward by fi ve-year intervals. Based on recent time series data and knowledge of the population, this projection used fi xed rates for mortality, fertility, and migration.

Summary of Projections for Smaller Areas

Alaska’s regions, boroughs, and census areas have grown and are projected to continue to grow at very different rates, with the fastest growth in the Anchorage/Matanuska-Susitna Region. The only region projected to lose population is the Southeast Region.

To create the borough and census area projections, the population of each area was stepped forward in fi ve-year increments, using the cohort component method. This provided population projections by fi ve-year age groups and sex. As with the Alaska Native projections, single paths were applied for each component, based on recent time series data and knowledge of the specifi ed populations.

Each borough and census area population was projected separately, with the sum of individual borough/census area projections matching closely to the “baseline” state projection at each step. A statistical fi tting procedure eliminated any discrepancies between the sum of the borough and census area projections and the state “baseline” projection, as Appendix A describes.

Introduction


Introduction

As of July 1, 2010, Alaska’s total estimated population was 714,142.

There are four distinct processes, or “components,” of change that contribute to population change: fertility, mortal-ity, in-migration, and out-migration. These projections em-ployed historical data on the level and trend of each of these components of change.

This section begins with a brief description of Alaska’s recent population background, then describes Alaska’s mor-tality, fertility and migration levels and their impact on the projections for Alaska’s population. Finally, it presents the results and interpretation of the statewide projections.

Background

Since statehood in 1959, when the population stood at roughly 224,000, Alaska has grown at varying rates. As Figure 1.1 shows, both “natural increase” (the difference between births and deaths) and “net-migration” (the difference between in-migration and out-migration) have played important roles. Since statehood, natural increase has provided Alaska with steady positive growth.

In- and out-migration have been far more uncertain compo-nents of this population change, as the numbers of people moving into and out of the state have varied greatly from year to year. In certain years, net-out-migration has been strong enough to reverse annual growth trends. However, as Alaska continues to develop, future in- and out-migration levels — and consequently net-migration — are expected to shift less dramatically.

Section 1Alaska Statewide Population Projections

Figure 1.1Annual Components Of Population Change For Alaska, 1947 – 2010

1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

0

10

20

30

40

-10

-20

Thousands

Natural Increase Net Migration

Korean War

Pipeline ConstructionOil Boom

Oil BustPipeline

Completed

Base closures

Vietnam War

1989-91Recovery

End of WWII Great

Recession


Table 1.1Annual Components Of Population Change For Alaska, 1960 – 2010

July 1 End of Avg. Annual Components Of Changeto Period Population Rate of Birth Death Natural NetJune 30 Population Change Change Births Rate Deaths Rate Increase Migration

1959-60 230,400 6,400 2.82 7,290 32.09 1,250 5.50 6,040 3601960-61 236,700 6,300 2.70 7,560 32.37 1,300 5.57 6,260 401961-62 242,800 6,100 2.54 7,610 31.74 1,290 5.38 6,320 -2201962-63 249,900 7,100 2.88 7,670 31.13 1,320 5.36 6,350 7501963-64 253,200 3,300 1.31 7,480 29.74 1,380 5.49 6,100 -2,8001964-65 265,200 12,000 4.63 7,170 27.66 1,390 5.36 5,780 6,2201965-66 271,500 6,300 2.35 6,810 25.38 1,320 4.92 5,490 8101966-67 277,900 6,400 2.33 6,410 23.33 1,300 4.73 5,110 1,2901967-68 284,900 7,000 2.49 6,350 22.57 1,317 4.68 5,033 1,9671968-69 294,600 9,700 3.35 6,670 23.02 1,330 4.59 5,340 4,3601969-70 308,500 13,900 4.61 7,230 23.98 1,370 4.54 5,860 8,0401970-71 319,600 11,100 3.53 7,437 23.68 1,444 4.60 5,993 5,1071971-72 329,800 10,200 3.14 7,129 21.96 1,462 4.50 5,667 4,5331972-73 336,400 6,600 1.98 6,781 20.36 1,468 4.41 5,313 1,2871973-74 348,100 11,700 3.42 6,847 20.01 1,467 4.29 5,380 6,3201974-75 384,100 36,000 9.83 7,275 19.87 1,497 4.09 5,778 30,2221975-76 409,800 25,700 6.47 7,694 19.38 1,570 3.96 6,124 19,5761976-77 418,000 8,200 1.98 8,175 19.75 1,612 3.89 6,563 1,6371977-78 411,600 -6,400 -1.54 8,668 20.90 1,654 3.99 7,014 -13,4141978-79 413,700 2,100 0.51 9,043 21.91 1,654 4.01 7,389 -5,2891979-80 419,800 6,100 1.46 9,400 22.56 1,671 4.01 7,729 -1,6291980-81 434,300 14,500 3.40 9,912 23.21 1,738 4.07 8,174 6,3261981-82 464,300 30,000 6.68 10,783 24.00 1,775 3.95 9,008 20,9921982-83 499,100 34,800 7.22 11,728 24.35 1,862 3.87 9,866 24,9341983-84 524,000 24,900 4.87 12,319 24.08 1,945 3.80 10,374 14,5261984-85 543,900 19,900 3.73 12,727 23.84 2,033 3.81 10,694 9,2061985-86 550,700 6,800 1.24 12,556 22.94 2,110 3.86 10,446 -3,6461986-87 541,300 -9,400 -1.72 11,941 21.87 2,096 3.84 9,845 -19,2451987-88 535,000 -6,300 -1.17 11,483 21.34 2,073 3.85 9,410 -15,7101988-89 538,900 3,900 0.73 11,468 21.36 2,088 3.89 9,380 -5,4801989-90 553,171 14,271 2.61 11,776 21.57 2,142 3.92 9,634 4,6371990-91 569,054 15,883 2.83 11,798 21.03 2,225 3.97 9,573 6,3101991-92 586,722 17,668 3.06 11,744 20.32 2,214 3.83 9,530 8,1381992-93 596,906 10,184 1.72 11,347 19.17 2,477 4.19 8,870 1,3141993-94 600,622 3,716 0.62 10,978 18.33 2,422 4.04 8,556 -4,8401994-95 601,581 959 0.16 10,439 17.37 2,500 4.16 7,939 -6,9801995-96 605,212 3,631 0.60 10,079 16.70 2,707 4.49 7,372 -3,7411996-97 609,655 4,443 0.73 10,018 16.49 2,574 4.24 7,444 -3,0011997-98 617,082 7,427 1.21 9,924 16.18 2,642 4.31 7,282 1451998-99 622,000 4,918 0.79 9,864 15.92 2,609 4.21 7,255 -2,3371999-00 628,346 6,346 1.02 10,102 16.16 2,829 4.53 7,273 -9272000-01 632,716 4,370 0.69 9,980 15.83 2,934 4.65 7,046 -2,6762001-02 641,729 9,013 1.41 9,892 15.52 3,075 4.83 6,817 2,1962002-03 649,466 7,737 1.20 10,025 15.53 3,107 4.81 6,918 8192003-04 659,653 10,187 1.56 10,299 15.73 3,060 4.67 7,239 2,9482004-05 667,146 7,493 1.13 10,368 15.63 3,167 4.77 7,201 2922005-06 674,583 7,437 1.11 10,656 15.88 3,163 4.71 7,493 -562006-07 680,169 5,586 0.82 11,065 16.34 3,456 5.10 7,609 -2,0232007-08 686,818 6,649 0.97 11,283 16.51 3,523 5.15 7,760 -1,1112008-09 697,828 11,010 1.59 11,504 16.62 3,503 5.06 8,001 3,0092009-10 714,142 16,314 2.31 11,192 15.85 3,538 5.01 7,654 8,664

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


The discovery of oil in Prudhoe Bay in 1968 and the subse-quent construction of the Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline in the 1970s had a massive effect on Alaska’s population, in the im-mediate term and the two decades that followed. Tens of thou-sands of workers and their dependents poured into the state for the construction of the pipeline, and many left the state at its completion. In the years that followed, Alaska would experi-ence a huge in-fl ow of migrants with new oil revenues and increased oil prices, but then a large out-fl ow of migrants when oil prices fell dramatically in 1985.

The conditions of these projections do not include any events on the scale of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. It is believed to be unlikely that Alaska will experience such a powerful occur-rence in the next 25 years. At the same time, it should be recognized that events of great magnitude do happen. The discovery at Prudhoe Bay helps to demonstrate thatmajor economic events are always possible.

Cohort Component Method

The Research and Analysis Section created this set of popula-tion projections through a “cohort component” technique. Un-der this approach, the population was separated into specifi ed age groups by sex and aged forward in time, adding projected births and in-migrants at each step while subtracting deaths and out-migrants.

Two of the distinct benefi ts of this approach are its careful disaggregation of the components of population change (births, deaths, and migration), and its production of population projec-tions by age and sex.

To estimate the impact of mortality and fertility on population change, distinct rates of mortality and fertility were applied to each age-sex group as they were aged forward in time. To estimate the impact of migration, the numbers of persons re-sulting from annual rates of in- and out-migration for the total population were applied to age-by-sex profi les. The calculated number of in-migrants was added to the respective age-sex group, and the number of out-migrants was subtracted from the respective age-sex group.1

Alternative Scenarios

Uncertainty about the future is a major factor in all population projections. Migration is the most uncertain of the compo-nents of change, so these projections include three scenarios with varying “net-migration ratios” (annual net migration divided by the mid-year population). The “baseline” projection scenario, believed to be the most likely, assumes that Alaska’s net-migration ratio will be the same it experienced from 2000 to 2010: .171 percent. The “high” projection scenario assume that Alaska’s annual net-migration ratio will be 1 percent, and the “low” scenario used an annual net-migration ratio of -.5 percent. There are no varying scenarios for the fertility and mortality rates used in these projections.

Mortality

The strength of mortality is summarized by “life expectancy at birth.” Life expectancy at birth (or period life expectancy at birth) for a given year is the average number of years that a person would live if he or she lived an entire life according to the respective year’s age-specifi c mortality rates. Though life expectancy varies greatly from group to group within Alaska, Alaska’s total life expectancy been fairly close to that of the United States as a whole.

As shown in Table 1.2, life expectancy in Alaska and the U.S. has been somewhat stable, with steady improvement over recent decades. Given the stability of mortality rates in Alaska, a single path for change was applied based on the U.S. Social Security Administration’s projected future change in U.S. mortality.

As Table 1.2 shows, the U.S. Social Security Administration projects that between 2010 and 2030, life expectancy will in-crease by 2.1 years for American men and 1.7 years for Ameri-can women. Following fi tted parameters based on this change, life expectancy in Alaska is expected to increase by 2 years for men and 1.4 years for women between 2010 and 2030.2 Over the entire projection period, 2010 to 2035, Alaska’s male life expectancy is projected to increase from 76.1 to 78.6, with female life expectancy rising from 80.5 to 82.2.

Fertility

The level of fertility is summarized by the “total fertility rate” (TFR). The TFR for a specifi c year is the average number of children that a women would have if she followed that year’s age-specifi c fertility rates throughout her lifetime. A TFR of approximately 2.1 (2.1 children per woman) is necessary for natural increase to be at replacement level. Alaska’s TFR ranks among the highest in the U.S., which allows steady growth from natural increase.

As with mortality, the Total Fertility Rate varies greatly across the state, with estimates for specifi c area TFRs ranging from as high as 4.53 in Wade Hampton to as low as 1.66 in Aleu-tians East. Based on a general trend of movement from rural to urban Alaska (where TFRs are generally lower) as well as national and global trends in fertility, the projection for Alaska used a TFR of 2.3. This was slightly lower than the average annual TFR from 2000 to 2010 — 2.39 — but is judged the most likely fertility rate for Alaska in the future. Figure 1.2 displays the fl uctuations of Alaska’s TFR in the past and how it is projected.

1Further description of the cohort component method is provided in Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot (2001).2Appendix A provides the method for fi tting the mortality parameters.


Migration

As discussed earlier, migration is the most uncertain compo-nent of population change for Alaska, and the level of migra-tion into and out of Alaska has been greatly infl uenced by distinct historical events that caused dramatic fl uctuations in net-migration. However, Alaska’s net-migration has been more stable over the past two decades.

Two values project migration for Alaska: the annual net-migra-tion ratio (net-migration divided by the mid-year population) and the annual rate of out-migration (the number of out-migrants divided by the mid-year population). The sum of the net-migration ratio and the out-migration rate is the in-migra-tion ratio (in-migration divided by the mid-year population).

Sources: U.S. Social Security Administration, National Center for Health Statistics, and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

Table 1.2Life Expectancy at Birth:Alaska and the United States, 1970 – 2030

Figure 1.3 shows the dramatic swings of Alaska’s net-migra-tion ratio in the past, and the three net-migration ratio paths used for the different projection scenarios. The baseline net migration ratio is nearly zero, at .171 percent. The high net-migration scenario is 1 percent and the low is -.5 percent.

The Research and Analysis Section deemed large-scale events, such as those that caused the erratic migration fl ows of the 1970s and early 1980s, unlikely in the near-term. However, unexpected events over the next 25 years will affect migration, so the section will make revisions as new information becomes available.

Components of Change

Table 1.3 displays projections of future levels of births, deaths, and net-migration. The baseline values are expected births, deaths, and net-migration with a net-migration ratio of .171 percent. The high and low projections of births, deaths, and net-migration are the projected values if the net-migration ratio for Alaska were 1 percent and -.5 percent, respectively.

The baseline and high projection scenarios show an increase in the number of births, while the low scenario projects a slight decline in numbers of births. As the projection extends out, the difference in projected number of births becomes much larger due to the accumulating difference in numbers of net-migrants.

The number of deaths in Alaska is expected to increase greatly over the projection period. With the aging of the “baby boom” generation (those born in the high fertility period from 1946 to 1964), Alaska like all states will have a much larger elderly population than in the past, which will raise the annual number of deaths. Increasing differences in expected numbers of deaths through time are due to the varying levels of migration for each of the projection scenarios.

Alaska’s Population Growth

Table 1.4 displays projections of the levels of population growth in Alaska from 2010 to 2035, and the outcomes of this growth in the projected state population.

With the expected increase in deaths relative to births, it is likely that the rate of growth will decline to some degree over the projection period. Still, putting migration aside, all three scenarios project continued natural growth.

The baseline projection produced a population for 2015 of 759,244, growing to 842,899 in 2025 and reaching 915,211 by 2035. Figure 1.4 shows the different paths projected for Alaska’s total population through 2035. With time, the dif-ferent scenarios for Alaska’s net-migration cause differences between projected populations to increase drastically.

Alaska Total Male FemalePopulation1970 66.1 74.01980 68.8 76.51990 71.6 78.72000 74.9 79.72010 76.1 80.52020* 77.1 81.22030* 78.1 81.9

Alaska Native Male FemalePopulation1970 NA NA1980 61.3 71.31990 64.0 74.22000** 67.2 73.72010 68.6 73.32020* 69.8 74.12030* 71.0 74.9

United States TotalPopulation1970 67.2 74.91980 69.9 77.51990 71.8 78.92000 74.0 79.42010* 75.4 80.02020* 76.5 80.82030* 77.5 81.7

* Projected** With the 2000 U.S. Census, the approach to defining race changed; this change may impact the life expectancy by race.


Figure 1.2Alaska Total Fertility Rate 1975 – 2035*

1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Year1.8

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

Figure 1.3Alaska Net Migration Ratio 1980 – 2035*

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Percent

Baseline

High Scenario

Low Scenario

Future Population by Age and Sex

Table 1.5 breaks down projections for Alaska’s population by age and sex. Two general qualities are apparent: (1) as the “baby boom” generation ages, Alaska’s older population will grow steadily, and (2) there is much uncertainty about the popu-lation that is yet to be born, a group that is heavily affected by migration.

The median age of Alaska’s population is project-ed to increase at a steady pace, rising from 33.8 in 2010 to 36.6 in 2035. The ratio of males per 100 females is expected to decline from 108.5 to 104.8 during the projected period.

Figures 1.5 through 1.10 show Alaska’s population pyramids for 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2035.

Specifi c Age Groups

Figures 1.11 through 1.17 illustrate the pro-jected population levels for specifi ed age groups. Alaska’s population aged 0-4 is projected to increase 22 percent, from 54,293 to 66,223 people, between 2010 and 2035. As shown in Figure 1.11, due to the large impact of migration on the young-est age group, there is great variation between the projected populations of 0- to 4-year-olds.

The population aged 5-13 represents children of elementary and middle school age. The baseline projection for this group shows 28 percent growth, from 92,092 in 2010 to 117,594 in 2035. (See fi gures 1.12 and 1.13.)

This group’s numbers declined in past years, but this trend was due to the aging “echo boom” co-hort (children of the baby boom generation), and is not projected to continue.

The population aged 14-17 primarily comprises high school students. As shown in Figure 1.14, the population at these ages is projected to increase by 25 percent, from 42,025 to 52,693 people between 2010 and 2035. The size of this population was recently at a historic high point as the peak of the echo boom cohort was of high school age. As the echo boomers fi nish moving through this age group, its population is expected to decline slightly before beginning to grow again.




Table 1.3Projected Annual Components Of Population Change For Alaska, 2010 — 2035

July 1 toJune 30 Births Deaths Net Migration

Year Low Baseline High Low Baseline High Low Baseline High

2010-11 11,553 11,553 11,553 3,767 3,767 3,767 -3,538 1,219 7,0992011-12 11,579 11,688 11,823 3,877 3,891 3,909 -3,564 1,239 7,2592012-13 11,585 11,802 12,074 3,978 4,007 4,043 -3,580 1,254 7,4022013-14 11,567 11,893 12,302 4,090 4,133 4,188 -3,601 1,265 7,5602014-15 11,525 11,959 12,507 4,202 4,261 4,335 -3,617 1,289 7,7152015-16 11,465 12,005 12,693 4,315 4,389 4,484 -3,645 1,289 7,8692016-17 11,389 12,035 12,864 4,432 4,523 4,638 -3,653 1,321 8,0382017-18 11,303 12,052 13,022 4,555 4,661 4,799 -3,676 1,323 8,1942018-19 11,213 12,064 13,176 4,687 4,810 4,971 -3,687 1,344 8,3642019-20 11,119 12,071 13,324 4,820 4,961 5,145 -3,708 1,358 8,5292020-21 11,020 12,072 13,467 4,960 5,118 5,327 -3,715 1,377 8,6802021-22 10,920 12,070 13,608 5,106 5,282 5,517 -3,729 1,377 8,8662022-23 10,826 12,072 13,756 5,251 5,446 5,707 -3,740 1,399 9,0332023-24 10,741 12,084 13,913 5,407 5,622 5,911 -3,753 1,419 9,2052024-25 10,667 12,106 14,083 5,565 5,800 6,118 -3,751 1,429 9,3772025-26 10,610 12,146 14,275 5,734 5,989 6,338 -3,762 1,447 9,5442026-27 10,571 12,204 14,488 5,903 6,179 6,560 -3,768 1,445 9,7252027-28 10,547 12,278 14,721 6,071 6,369 6,782 -3,776 1,472 9,8922028-29 10,539 12,370 14,977 6,258 6,579 7,027 -3,770 1,470 10,0762029-30 10,553 12,487 15,263 6,429 6,774 7,258 -3,782 1,495 10,2632030-31 10,588 12,626 15,577 6,614 6,984 7,506 -3,784 1,504 10,4322031-32 10,633 12,778 15,911 6,800 7,195 7,757 -3,782 1,517 10,6292032-33 10,685 12,940 16,260 6,974 7,396 7,998 -3,780 1,527 10,8112033-34 10,742 13,110 16,624 7,158 7,607 8,253 -3,777 1,532 11,0042034-35 10,800 13,282 16,998 7,320 7,798 8,489 -3,792 1,552 11,194

Figure 1.4Alaska Population 1945 — 2035

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0

Thousands

Baseline

High Scenario

Low Scenario

Alaska’s population aged 18-24 is largely made up of recent high school graduates and college students. This age group is projected to rise from 75,292 to 85,857 people, a 14 percent increase, during the projected period. With the echo boom generation moving through these ages, the popula-tion is projected to decrease, then increase again.

Alaska’s population aged 18-64 is an approximate representation of the working-age population. The 2010 working-age population was 470,495, and is projected to be 523,319 in 2035, an 11 percent increase. As the baby boomers move into retire-ment, the echo boomers will continue moving into the working ages, yielding almost no change in the working-age population (see Figure 1.16). In the later years of the projection period, this group is projected to increase.

The population aged 65+ is largely made up of retirees. Strong growth is projected for this age group throughout the projection period, fueled by the large cohort of aging baby boomers. Alaska’s current population aged 65+ was 55,237 in 2010 and is projected to nearly triple by 2035, reaching 155,382 people — a 181 percent rise.

Note: This table was revised for rounding errors and adjustments to deaths in January 2013.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section



Table 1.4Population Growth Projections for Alaska, 2010 – 2035

July 1 to End of Period Population Average AnnualJune 30 Population Change Percent Rate of Change

Year Low Baseline High Low Baseline High Low Baseline High

2009-10 714,142 714,142 714,1422010-11 718,390 723,147 729,027 4,248 9,005 14,885 0.59 1.25 2.062011-12 722,528 732,183 744,200 4,138 9,036 15,173 0.57 1.24 2.062012-13 726,555 741,232 759,633 4,027 9,049 15,433 0.56 1.23 2.052013-14 730,431 750,257 775,307 3,876 9,025 15,674 0.53 1.21 2.042014-15 734,137 759,244 791,194 3,706 8,987 15,887 0.51 1.19 2.032015-16 737,642 768,149 807,272 3,505 8,905 16,078 0.48 1.17 2.012016-17 740,946 776,982 823,536 3,304 8,833 16,264 0.45 1.14 1.992017-18 744,018 785,696 839,953 3,072 8,714 16,417 0.41 1.12 1.972018-19 746,857 794,294 856,522 2,839 8,598 16,569 0.38 1.09 1.952019-20 749,448 802,762 873,230 2,591 8,468 16,708 0.35 1.06 1.932020-21 751,793 811,093 890,050 2,345 8,331 16,820 0.31 1.03 1.912021-22 753,878 819,258 907,007 2,085 8,165 16,957 0.28 1.00 1.892022-23 755,713 827,283 924,089 1,835 8,025 17,082 0.24 0.97 1.872023-24 757,294 835,164 941,296 1,581 7,881 17,207 0.21 0.95 1.842024-25 758,645 842,899 958,638 1,351 7,735 17,342 0.18 0.92 1.832025-26 759,759 850,503 976,119 1,114 7,604 17,481 0.15 0.90 1.812026-27 760,659 857,973 993,772 900 7,470 17,653 0.12 0.87 1.792027-28 761,359 865,354 1,011,603 700 7,381 17,831 0.09 0.86 1.782028-29 761,870 872,615 1,029,629 511 7,261 18,026 0.07 0.84 1.772029-30 762,212 879,823 1,047,897 342 7,208 18,268 0.04 0.82 1.762030-31 762,402 886,969 1,066,400 190 7,146 18,503 0.02 0.81 1.752031-32 762,453 894,069 1,085,183 51 7,100 18,783 0.01 0.80 1.752032-33 762,384 901,140 1,104,256 -69 7,071 19,073 -0.01 0.79 1.742033-34 762,191 908,175 1,123,631 -193 7,035 19,375 -0.03 0.78 1.742034-35 761,879 915,211 1,143,334 -312 7,036 19,703 -0.04 0.77 1.74

The large increase in the size of the population age 65+ will no doubt play a major role in shaping Alaska’s future. Alaska has historically had a relatively small old-age population, and this rise in seniors will surely present new challenges to find fund-ing and build infrastructure to support them.

Dependency

Dependency ratios show the burden of support on the working-age population in caring for the young and old, both largely nonworking populations. In 2010, every 100 Alaskans sup-ported 40 people under 18, and 11.7 persons age 65+. Both of these figures are projected to rise over the next 25 years. The youth dependency ratio is projected to rise to 41.4 in 2015 and 46 in 2025, but then decrease to 45.2 in 2035. The aged dependency ratio is expected to increase to 15.8 in 2015, then

27 in 2025, and reach 29.7 by 2035. Despite some uncertainty in these specific figures, there is little doubt that the old-age dependency ratio will increase dramatically over the next 25 years.

Note: This table was revised for rounding errors in January 2013.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


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Figure 1.5Alaska Estimated Population by Age and Sex, 2010



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Figure 1.6Alaska Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2015



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Figure 1.13Population Age 11-13,Alaska, 2010 – 2035




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Figure 1.17Population Age 65+,Alaska, 2010 – 2035



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Table 1.5Alaska Population Estimates by Age and Sex, 2010

Age Total Male Female Age Total Male Female Age Total Male Female

Under 1 10,888 5,621 5,267 35 9,447 4,984 4,463 70 3,167 1,620 1,5471 11,066 5,718 5,348 36 8,653 4,414 4,239 71 2,774 1,415 1,3592 10,957 5,696 5,261 37 8,869 4,555 4,314 72 2,689 1,389 1,3003 10,836 5,516 5,320 38 9,240 4,814 4,426 73 2,367 1,194 1,1734 10,546 5,498 5,048 39 9,875 5,094 4,781 74 2,223 1,082 1,141

0-4 54,293 28,049 26,244 35-39 46,084 23,861 22,223 70-74 13,220 6,700 6,520

5 10,233 5,186 5,047 40 10,168 5,302 4,866 75 2,096 1,002 1,0946 10,309 5,277 5,032 41 9,168 4,827 4,341 76 1,879 910 9697 10,211 5,207 5,004 42 9,147 4,800 4,347 77 1,765 808 9578 10,152 5,246 4,906 43 9,301 4,829 4,472 78 1,604 720 8849 10,263 5,266 4,997 44 9,617 5,023 4,594 79 1,596 732 864

5-9 51,168 26,182 24,986 40-44 47,401 24,781 22,620 75-79 8,940 4,172 4,768

10 10,595 5,542 5,053 45 10,687 5,558 5,129 80 1,522 702 82011 10,128 5,186 4,942 46 10,650 5,589 5,061 81 1,313 584 72912 9,968 5,080 4,888 47 11,158 5,780 5,378 82 1,192 523 66913 10,233 5,239 4,994 48 11,164 5,754 5,410 83 1,049 435 61414 10,172 5,244 4,928 49 11,369 5,874 5,495 84 941 390 551

10-14 51,096 26,291 24,805 45-49 55,028 28,555 26,473 80-84 6,017 2,634 3,383

15 10,381 5,283 5,098 50 11,989 6,349 5,640 85 847 299 54816 10,636 5,454 5,182 51 11,035 5,716 5,319 86 794 314 48017 10,836 5,678 5,158 52 11,478 6,034 5,444 87 635 236 39918 10,556 5,500 5,056 53 11,263 5,747 5,516 88 555 214 34119 10,019 5,414 4,605 54 10,846 5,604 5,242 89 461 161 300

15-19 52,428 27,329 25,099 50-54 56,611 29,450 27,161 85-89 3,292 1,224 2,068

20 10,686 5,860 4,826 55 11,471 5,964 5,507 90 + 1,445 445 1,00021 10,635 5,856 4,779 56 10,360 5,482 4,87822 10,918 5,912 5,006 57 10,135 5,365 4,770 Total 714,142 371,663 342,47923 10,846 5,909 4,937 58 9,590 5,061 4,52924 11,632 6,332 5,300 59 8,691 4,668 4,023 16+ 547,204 285,858 261,346

18+ 525,732 274,726 251,00620-24 54,717 29,869 24,848 55-59 50,247 26,540 23,707 65+ 55,237 26,952 28,285

25 11,639 6,210 5,429 60 8,734 4,719 4,015 Median Age 33.8 33.6 34.126 11,260 5,990 5,270 61 7,828 4,214 3,61427 11,374 5,964 5,410 62 7,366 3,953 3,413 Males Per 100 Females 108.528 10,826 5,783 5,043 63 6,917 3,685 3,232 Youth Dependency (<18/18-64) 40.029 10,627 5,522 5,105 64 5,292 2,766 2,526 Aged Dependency (65+/18-64) 11.7

25-29 55,726 29,469 26,257 60-64 36,137 19,337 16,800

30 10,792 5,714 5,078 65 5,238 2,779 2,45931 9,505 4,976 4,529 66 4,920 2,617 2,30332 9,682 5,028 4,654 67 4,548 2,408 2,14033 9,061 4,612 4,449 68 4,015 2,064 1,95134 8,929 4,668 4,261 69 3,602 1,909 1,693

30-34 47,969 24,998 22,971 65-69 22,323 11,777 10,546



Table 1.6Alaska Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2015 Baseline


Under 1 12,056 6,161 5,895 35 11,255 5,955 5,300 70 4,657 2,421 2,2361 12,023 6,138 5,885 36 9,869 5,156 4,713 71 4,354 2,270 2,0842 12,021 6,133 5,888 37 9,998 5,179 4,819 72 3,994 2,072 1,9223 11,994 6,117 5,877 38 9,353 4,744 4,609 73 3,508 1,771 1,7374 11,949 6,101 5,848 39 9,163 4,776 4,387 74 3,120 1,621 1,499

0-4 60,043 30,650 29,393 35-39 49,638 25,810 23,828 70-74 19,633 10,155 9,478

5 11,243 5,794 5,449 40 9,627 5,071 4,556 75 2,724 1,366 1,3586 11,456 5,908 5,548 41 8,827 4,505 4,322 76 2,359 1,176 1,1837 11,326 5,889 5,437 42 8,988 4,625 4,363 77 2,265 1,143 1,1228 11,172 5,692 5,480 43 9,271 4,845 4,426 78 1,973 961 1,0129 10,860 5,651 5,209 44 9,867 5,108 4,759 79 1,822 848 974

5-9 56,057 28,934 27,123 40-44 46,580 24,154 22,426 75-79 11,143 5,494 5,649

10 10,556 5,344 5,212 45 10,108 5,290 4,818 80 1,687 769 91811 10,627 5,442 5,185 46 9,066 4,806 4,260 81 1,481 683 79812 10,539 5,377 5,162 47 9,021 4,767 4,254 82 1,349 580 76913 10,460 5,419 5,041 48 9,184 4,804 4,380 83 1,196 506 69014 10,508 5,414 5,094 49 9,461 4,978 4,483 84 1,150 488 662

10-14 52,690 26,996 25,694 45-49 46,840 24,645 22,195 80-84 6,863 3,026 3,837

15 10,788 5,673 5,115 50 10,461 5,476 4,985 85 1,059 446 61316 10,242 5,282 4,960 51 10,359 5,455 4,904 86 875 346 52917 9,997 5,134 4,863 52 10,796 5,597 5,199 87 770 302 46818 9,795 5,052 4,743 53 10,741 5,529 5,212 88 643 231 41219 9,721 5,200 4,521 54 10,868 5,609 5,259 89 561 206 355

15-19 50,543 26,341 24,202 50-54 53,225 27,666 25,559 85-89 3,908 1,531 2,377

20 9,936 5,299 4,637 55 11,444 6,044 5,400 90 + 2,075 657 1,41821 10,224 5,496 4,728 56 10,472 5,403 5,06922 10,269 5,549 4,720 57 10,870 5,695 5,175 Total 759,244 393,702 365,54223 10,530 5,677 4,853 58 10,615 5,392 5,22324 10,205 5,555 4,650 59 10,186 5,236 4,950 16+ 579,666 301,449 278,217

18+ 559,427 291,033 268,39420-24 51,164 27,576 23,588 55-59 53,587 27,770 25,817 65+ 76,502 38,264 38,238


25-29 57,059 30,002 27,057 60-64 46,754 24,503 22,251

30 12,311 6,375 5,936 65 8,041 4,309 3,73231 11,884 6,161 5,723 66 7,145 3,809 3,33632 12,033 6,243 5,790 67 6,707 3,560 3,14733 11,162 5,808 5,354 68 6,262 3,292 2,97034 11,172 5,804 5,368 69 4,725 2,431 2,294

30-34 58,562 30,391 28,171 65-69 32,880 17,401 15,479



Table 1.6Alaska Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2015 Low Scenario


Under 1 11,517 5,886 5,631 35 10,787 5,696 5,091 70 4,614 2,399 2,2151 11,492 5,867 5,625 36 9,420 4,907 4,513 71 4,315 2,250 2,0652 11,495 5,865 5,630 37 9,562 4,937 4,625 72 3,958 2,053 1,9053 11,480 5,855 5,625 38 8,927 4,506 4,421 73 3,476 1,755 1,7214 11,455 5,848 5,607 39 8,749 4,544 4,205 74 3,090 1,606 1,484

0-4 57,439 29,321 28,118 35-39 47,445 24,590 22,855 70-74 19,453 10,063 9,390

5 10,765 5,550 5,215 40 9,225 4,843 4,382 75 2,696 1,352 1,3446 10,996 5,674 5,322 41 8,438 4,283 4,155 76 2,333 1,164 1,1697 10,887 5,664 5,223 42 8,615 4,411 4,204 77 2,241 1,132 1,1098 10,751 5,477 5,274 43 8,915 4,640 4,275 78 1,950 951 9999 10,455 5,445 5,010 44 9,531 4,914 4,617 79 1,802 840 962

5-9 53,854 27,810 26,044 40-44 44,724 23,091 21,633 75-79 11,022 5,439 5,583

10 10,159 5,141 5,018 45 9,787 5,105 4,682 80 1,668 762 90611 10,242 5,245 4,997 46 8,762 4,630 4,132 81 1,463 676 78712 10,161 5,183 4,978 47 8,731 4,599 4,132 82 1,331 573 75813 10,093 5,230 4,863 48 8,905 4,643 4,262 83 1,180 500 68014 10,156 5,232 4,924 49 9,196 4,825 4,371 84 1,135 482 653

10-14 50,811 26,031 24,780 45-49 45,381 23,802 21,579 80-84 6,777 2,993 3,784

15 10,447 5,497 4,950 50 10,210 5,331 4,879 85 1,046 441 60516 9,916 5,113 4,803 51 10,123 5,320 4,803 86 863 342 52117 9,688 4,974 4,714 52 10,575 5,472 5,103 87 759 298 46118 9,514 4,907 4,607 53 10,533 5,412 5,121 88 633 228 40519 9,434 5,053 4,381 54 10,674 5,500 5,174 89 553 204 349

15-19 48,999 25,544 23,455 50-54 52,115 27,035 25,080 85-89 3,854 1,513 2,341

20 9,613 5,132 4,481 55 11,261 5,942 5,319 90 + 2,046 649 1,39721 9,840 5,292 4,548 56 10,302 5,309 4,99322 9,810 5,300 4,510 57 10,712 5,607 5,105 Total 734,137 380,148 353,98923 9,989 5,381 4,608 58 10,469 5,310 5,15924 9,600 5,222 4,378 59 10,052 5,161 4,891 16+ 561,586 291,489 270,097

18+ 541,982 281,402 260,58020-24 48,852 26,327 22,525 55-59 52,796 27,329 25,467 65+ 75,734 37,899 37,835


25-29 53,851 28,233 25,618 60-64 46,246 24,226 22,020

30 11,724 6,050 5,674 65 7,967 4,269 3,69831 11,325 5,851 5,474 66 7,080 3,774 3,30632 11,501 5,948 5,553 67 6,648 3,529 3,11933 10,655 5,526 5,129 68 6,209 3,264 2,94534 10,685 5,535 5,150 69 4,678 2,406 2,272

30-34 55,890 28,910 26,980 65-69 32,582 17,242 15,340



Table 1.6Alaska Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2015 High Scenario


Under 1 12,741 6,511 6,230 35 11,849 6,284 5,565 70 4,711 2,449 2,2621 12,700 6,483 6,217 36 10,441 5,473 4,968 71 4,403 2,296 2,1072 12,690 6,474 6,216 37 10,552 5,486 5,066 72 4,040 2,096 1,9443 12,646 6,449 6,197 38 9,895 5,046 4,849 73 3,549 1,793 1,7564 12,579 6,423 6,156 39 9,689 5,072 4,617 74 3,157 1,640 1,517

0-4 63,356 32,340 31,016 35-39 52,426 27,361 25,065 70-74 19,860 10,274 9,586

5 11,850 6,104 5,746 40 10,138 5,360 4,778 75 2,759 1,383 1,3766 12,040 6,206 5,834 41 9,323 4,787 4,536 76 2,392 1,192 1,2007 11,884 6,175 5,709 42 9,462 4,898 4,564 77 2,295 1,157 1,1388 11,708 5,966 5,742 43 9,722 5,104 4,618 78 2,001 973 1,0289 11,377 5,914 5,463 44 10,295 5,355 4,940 79 1,850 860 990

5-9 58,859 30,365 28,494 40-44 48,940 25,504 23,436 75-79 11,297 5,565 5,732

10 11,059 5,601 5,458 45 10,515 5,525 4,990 80 1,711 779 93211 11,119 5,694 5,425 46 9,453 5,030 4,423 81 1,503 692 81112 11,019 5,623 5,396 47 9,392 4,982 4,410 82 1,370 588 78213 10,927 5,660 5,267 48 9,539 5,010 4,529 83 1,217 514 70314 10,957 5,646 5,311 49 9,799 5,173 4,626 84 1,169 494 675

10-14 55,081 28,224 26,857 45-49 48,698 25,720 22,978 80-84 6,970 3,067 3,903

15 11,222 5,898 5,324 50 10,780 5,660 5,120 85 1,077 452 62516 10,656 5,496 5,160 51 10,658 5,626 5,032 86 891 351 54017 10,391 5,339 5,052 52 11,077 5,756 5,321 87 784 306 47818 10,154 5,238 4,916 53 11,006 5,678 5,328 88 655 235 42019 10,087 5,388 4,699 54 11,115 5,748 5,367 89 571 209 362

15-19 52,510 27,359 25,151 50-54 54,636 28,468 26,168 85-89 3,978 1,553 2,425

20 10,350 5,513 4,837 55 11,676 6,173 5,503 90 + 2,112 668 1,44421 10,715 5,756 4,959 56 10,688 5,522 5,16622 10,857 5,867 4,990 57 11,071 5,806 5,265 Total 791,194 410,955 380,23923 11,221 6,056 5,165 58 10,801 5,496 5,30524 10,976 5,980 4,996 59 10,357 5,331 5,026 16+ 602,676 314,128 288,548

18+ 581,629 303,293 278,33620-24 54,119 29,172 24,947 55-59 54,593 28,328 26,265 65+ 77,479 38,732 38,747


25-29 61,143 32,253 28,890 60-64 47,400 24,858 22,542

30 13,056 6,788 6,268 65 8,135 4,360 3,77531 12,594 6,554 6,040 66 7,229 3,854 3,37532 12,708 6,617 6,091 67 6,782 3,600 3,18233 11,807 6,167 5,640 68 6,330 3,328 3,00234 11,789 6,145 5,644 69 4,786 2,463 2,323

30-34 61,954 32,271 29,683 65-69 33,262 17,605 15,657





Under 1 12,174 6,221 5,953 35 12,801 6,631 6,170 70 7,246 3,815 3,4311 12,208 6,232 5,976 36 12,262 6,347 5,915 71 6,395 3,348 3,0472 12,289 6,270 6,019 37 12,359 6,398 5,961 72 5,955 3,101 2,8543 12,365 6,306 6,059 38 11,463 5,941 5,522 73 5,535 2,866 2,6694 12,432 6,347 6,085 39 11,410 5,912 5,498 74 4,130 2,084 2,046

0-4 61,468 31,376 30,092 35-39 60,295 31,229 29,066 70-74 29,261 15,214 14,047

5 12,433 6,345 6,088 40 11,440 6,043 5,397 75 4,044 2,066 1,9786 12,437 6,340 6,097 41 10,052 5,250 4,802 76 3,741 1,914 1,8277 12,412 6,338 6,074 42 10,122 5,252 4,870 77 3,400 1,729 1,6718 12,349 6,303 6,046 43 9,396 4,784 4,612 78 2,953 1,446 1,5079 12,283 6,264 6,019 44 9,174 4,802 4,372 79 2,577 1,291 1,286

5-9 61,914 31,590 30,324 40-44 50,184 26,131 24,053 75-79 16,715 8,446 8,269

10 11,585 5,961 5,624 45 9,583 5,069 4,514 80 2,209 1,064 1,14511 11,794 6,084 5,710 46 8,737 4,495 4,242 81 1,874 895 97912 11,673 6,068 5,605 47 8,871 4,602 4,269 82 1,740 834 90613 11,499 5,876 5,623 48 9,161 4,827 4,334 83 1,479 685 79414 11,122 5,809 5,313 49 9,714 5,068 4,646 84 1,324 572 752

10-14 57,673 29,798 27,875 45-49 46,066 24,061 22,005 80-84 8,626 4,050 4,576

15 10,763 5,485 5,278 50 9,896 5,220 4,676 85 1,185 494 69116 10,750 5,545 5,205 51 8,806 4,693 4,113 86 993 410 58317 10,571 5,435 5,136 52 8,700 4,610 4,090 87 880 338 54218 9,997 5,221 4,776 53 8,799 4,604 4,195 88 739 273 46619 10,006 5,343 4,663 54 8,998 4,738 4,260 89 691 262 429

15-19 52,087 27,029 25,058 50-54 45,199 23,865 21,334 85-89 4,488 1,777 2,711

20 10,279 5,652 4,627 55 9,947 5,194 4,753 90 + 2,604 870 1,73421 9,767 5,287 4,480 56 9,803 5,147 4,65622 9,374 4,974 4,400 57 10,198 5,270 4,928 Total 802,762 414,809 387,95323 9,744 5,215 4,529 58 10,099 5,180 4,91924 9,916 5,346 4,570 59 10,199 5,239 4,960 16+ 610,944 316,560 294,384

18+ 589,623 305,580 284,04320-24 49,080 26,474 22,606 55-59 50,246 26,030 24,216 65+ 104,608 52,595 52,013


25-29 53,827 27,884 25,943 60-64 49,947 25,675 24,272

30 11,568 5,966 5,602 65 9,978 5,108 4,87031 11,653 6,022 5,631 66 8,910 4,641 4,26932 12,182 6,288 5,894 67 8,660 4,501 4,15933 12,066 6,237 5,829 68 8,110 4,183 3,92734 12,699 6,559 6,140 69 7,256 3,805 3,451

30-34 60,168 31,072 29,096 65-69 42,914 22,238 20,676





Under 1 11,111 5,678 5,433 35 11,720 6,033 5,687 70 7,141 3,760 3,3811 11,142 5,688 5,454 36 11,230 5,776 5,454 71 6,300 3,298 3,0022 11,217 5,723 5,494 37 11,370 5,850 5,520 72 5,868 3,056 2,8123 11,294 5,760 5,534 38 10,510 5,412 5,098 73 5,458 2,826 2,6324 11,371 5,805 5,566 39 10,492 5,402 5,090 74 4,059 2,048 2,011

0-4 56,135 28,654 27,481 35-39 55,322 28,473 26,849 70-74 28,826 14,988 13,838

5 11,392 5,814 5,578 40 10,556 5,549 5,007 75 3,979 2,033 1,9466 11,421 5,822 5,599 41 9,197 4,771 4,426 76 3,683 1,886 1,7977 11,423 5,833 5,590 42 9,301 4,789 4,512 77 3,346 1,702 1,6448 11,393 5,815 5,578 43 8,605 4,336 4,269 78 2,903 1,423 1,4809 11,360 5,793 5,567 44 8,416 4,371 4,045 79 2,531 1,271 1,260

5-9 56,989 29,077 27,912 40-44 46,075 23,816 22,259 75-79 16,442 8,315 8,127

10 10,690 5,504 5,186 45 8,855 4,653 4,202 80 2,167 1,046 1,12111 10,927 5,640 5,287 46 8,038 4,093 3,945 81 1,835 879 95612 10,835 5,639 5,196 47 8,205 4,217 3,988 82 1,705 820 88513 10,691 5,461 5,230 48 8,525 4,458 4,067 83 1,446 672 77414 10,345 5,410 4,935 49 9,111 4,719 4,392 84 1,293 561 732

10-14 53,488 27,654 25,834 45-49 42,734 22,140 20,594 80-84 8,446 3,978 4,468

15 10,009 5,096 4,913 50 9,326 4,890 4,436 85 1,158 485 67316 10,026 5,171 4,855 51 8,269 4,383 3,886 86 968 402 56617 9,875 5,075 4,800 52 8,193 4,319 3,874 87 858 331 52718 9,358 4,890 4,468 53 8,319 4,329 3,990 88 719 267 45219 9,391 5,027 4,364 54 8,548 4,480 4,068 89 672 256 416

15-19 48,659 25,259 23,400 50-54 42,655 22,401 20,254 85-89 4,375 1,741 2,634

20 9,646 5,327 4,319 55 9,525 4,954 4,571 90 + 2,538 852 1,68621 9,088 4,934 4,154 56 9,410 4,925 4,48522 8,631 4,580 4,051 57 9,832 5,064 4,768 Total 749,448 386,122 363,32623 8,927 4,778 4,149 58 9,759 4,989 4,77024 9,007 4,857 4,150 59 9,886 5,063 4,823 16+ 572,827 295,641 277,186

18+ 552,926 285,395 267,53120-24 45,299 24,476 20,823 55-59 48,412 24,995 23,417 65+ 102,797 51,711 51,086


25-29 48,073 24,749 23,324 60-64 48,724 25,000 23,724

30 10,291 5,262 5,029 65 9,796 5,008 4,78831 10,390 5,326 5,064 66 8,747 4,552 4,19532 10,955 5,612 5,343 67 8,512 4,422 4,09033 10,883 5,583 5,300 68 7,978 4,113 3,86534 11,567 5,934 5,633 69 7,137 3,742 3,395

30-34 54,086 27,717 26,369 65-69 42,170 21,837 20,333





Under 1 13,583 6,941 6,642 35 14,225 7,419 6,806 70 7,387 3,889 3,4981 13,621 6,953 6,668 36 13,621 7,099 6,522 71 6,521 3,414 3,1072 13,709 6,994 6,715 37 13,662 7,119 6,543 72 6,069 3,161 2,9083 13,779 7,027 6,752 38 12,720 6,639 6,081 73 5,638 2,919 2,7194 13,834 7,064 6,770 39 12,621 6,586 6,035 74 4,224 2,132 2,092

0-4 68,526 34,979 33,547 35-39 66,849 34,862 31,987 70-74 29,839 15,515 14,324

5 13,806 7,046 6,760 40 12,606 6,695 5,911 75 4,128 2,108 2,0206 13,779 7,024 6,755 41 11,179 5,883 5,296 76 3,818 1,952 1,8667 13,715 7,004 6,711 42 11,206 5,864 5,342 77 3,470 1,763 1,7078 13,610 6,947 6,663 43 10,438 5,374 5,064 78 3,017 1,476 1,5419 13,500 6,884 6,616 44 10,174 5,372 4,802 79 2,637 1,318 1,319

5-9 68,410 34,905 33,505 40-44 55,603 29,188 26,415 75-79 17,070 8,617 8,453

10 12,765 6,563 6,202 45 10,541 5,617 4,924 80 2,264 1,088 1,17611 12,937 6,668 6,269 46 9,655 5,024 4,631 81 1,925 917 1,00812 12,778 6,635 6,143 47 9,749 5,110 4,639 82 1,787 853 93413 12,565 6,424 6,141 48 10,000 5,313 4,687 83 1,523 702 82114 12,147 6,336 5,811 49 10,509 5,529 4,980 84 1,364 587 777

10-14 63,192 32,626 30,566 45-49 50,454 26,593 23,861 80-84 8,863 4,147 4,716

15 11,755 5,997 5,758 50 10,648 5,656 4,992 85 1,222 507 71516 11,705 6,038 5,667 51 9,514 5,102 4,412 86 1,026 421 60517 11,489 5,910 5,579 52 9,368 4,994 4,374 87 910 348 56218 10,838 5,656 5,182 53 9,431 4,966 4,465 88 765 281 48419 10,820 5,761 5,059 54 9,590 5,076 4,514 89 714 269 445

15-19 56,607 29,362 27,245 50-54 48,551 25,794 22,757 85-89 4,637 1,826 2,811

20 11,121 6,085 5,036 55 10,503 5,510 4,993 90 + 2,692 894 1,79821 10,676 5,761 4,915 56 10,322 5,439 4,88322 10,370 5,502 4,868 57 10,680 5,540 5,140 Total 873,230 452,739 420,49123 10,843 5,804 5,039 58 10,547 5,432 5,11524 11,136 6,003 5,133 59 10,612 5,471 5,141 16+ 661,347 344,232 317,115

18+ 638,153 332,284 305,86920-24 54,146 29,155 24,991 55-59 52,664 27,392 25,272 65+ 106,994 53,764 53,230


25-29 61,497 32,064 29,433 60-64 51,555 26,562 24,993

30 13,255 6,895 6,360 65 10,217 5,239 4,97831 13,318 6,940 6,378 66 9,126 4,758 4,36832 13,798 7,179 6,619 67 8,853 4,605 4,24833 13,623 7,098 6,525 68 8,284 4,275 4,00934 14,188 7,381 6,807 69 7,413 3,888 3,525

30-34 68,182 35,493 32,689 65-69 43,893 22,765 21,128





Under 1 12,213 6,241 5,972 35 12,098 6,245 5,853 70 9,061 4,555 4,5061 12,241 6,249 5,992 36 12,063 6,226 5,837 71 8,034 4,111 3,9232 12,329 6,290 6,039 37 12,535 6,457 6,078 72 7,747 3,953 3,7943 12,423 6,335 6,088 38 12,387 6,380 6,007 73 7,222 3,671 3,5514 12,529 6,397 6,132 39 12,949 6,673 6,276 74 6,402 3,302 3,100

0-4 61,735 31,512 30,223 35-39 62,032 31,981 30,051 70-74 38,466 19,592 18,874

5 12,578 6,419 6,159 40 12,993 6,723 6,270 75 6,347 3,290 3,0576 12,647 6,447 6,200 41 12,443 6,439 6,004 76 5,541 2,853 2,6887 12,703 6,487 6,216 42 12,479 6,468 6,011 77 5,113 2,617 2,4968 12,742 6,504 6,238 43 11,497 5,976 5,521 78 4,698 2,370 2,3289 12,785 6,520 6,265 44 11,409 5,933 5,476 79 3,442 1,679 1,763

5-9 63,455 32,377 31,078 40-44 60,821 31,539 29,282 75-79 25,141 12,809 12,332

10 12,794 6,522 6,272 45 11,384 6,036 5,348 80 3,310 1,635 1,67511 12,795 6,526 6,269 46 9,952 5,236 4,716 81 3,002 1,483 1,51912 12,779 6,528 6,251 47 9,997 5,226 4,771 82 2,639 1,283 1,35613 12,695 6,498 6,197 48 9,292 4,774 4,518 83 2,234 1,046 1,18814 12,558 6,430 6,128 49 9,038 4,775 4,263 84 1,882 885 997

10-14 63,621 32,504 31,117 45-49 49,663 26,047 23,616 80-84 13,067 6,332 6,735

15 11,804 6,110 5,694 50 9,384 5,010 4,374 85 1,562 695 86716 11,923 6,192 5,731 51 8,486 4,393 4,093 86 1,265 546 71917 11,707 6,130 5,577 52 8,553 4,451 4,102 87 1,137 495 64218 11,010 5,666 5,344 53 8,775 4,628 4,147 88 916 376 54019 10,572 5,712 4,860 54 9,241 4,826 4,415 89 800 311 489

15-19 57,016 29,810 27,206 50-54 44,439 23,308 21,131 85-89 5,680 2,423 3,257

20 10,196 5,431 4,765 55 9,390 4,945 4,445 90 + 3,076 1,052 2,02421 10,213 5,514 4,699 56 8,278 4,404 3,87422 9,886 5,238 4,648 57 8,144 4,310 3,834 Total 842,899 434,059 408,84023 9,916 5,365 4,551 58 8,196 4,281 3,91524 10,205 5,490 4,715 59 8,368 4,393 3,975 16+ 642,284 331,556 310,728

18+ 618,654 319,234 299,42020-24 50,416 27,038 23,378 55-59 42,376 22,333 20,043 65+ 131,386 65,564 65,822


25-29 52,035 26,936 25,099 60-64 46,680 23,996 22,684

30 10,927 5,466 5,461 65 9,945 5,184 4,76131 11,360 5,728 5,632 66 9,014 4,572 4,44232 11,659 5,993 5,666 67 9,335 4,803 4,53233 11,874 6,072 5,802 68 9,050 4,484 4,56634 11,404 5,855 5,549 69 8,612 4,313 4,299

30-34 57,224 29,114 28,110 65-69 45,956 23,356 22,600





Under 1 10,659 5,447 5,212 35 10,300 5,254 5,046 70 8,859 4,448 4,4111 10,674 5,449 5,225 36 10,306 5,258 5,048 71 7,853 4,015 3,8382 10,745 5,482 5,263 37 10,832 5,519 5,313 72 7,583 3,866 3,7173 10,831 5,523 5,308 38 10,740 5,471 5,269 73 7,075 3,594 3,4814 10,932 5,581 5,351 39 11,370 5,799 5,571 74 6,269 3,234 3,035

0-4 53,841 27,482 26,359 35-39 53,548 27,301 26,247 70-74 37,639 19,157 18,482

5 10,991 5,609 5,382 40 11,482 5,883 5,599 75 6,227 3,229 2,9986 11,071 5,643 5,428 41 10,994 5,632 5,362 76 5,434 2,799 2,6357 11,145 5,691 5,454 42 11,094 5,694 5,400 77 5,018 2,570 2,4488 11,207 5,720 5,487 43 10,174 5,233 4,941 78 4,610 2,328 2,2829 11,276 5,750 5,526 44 10,141 5,220 4,921 79 3,362 1,642 1,720

5-9 55,690 28,413 27,277 40-44 53,885 27,662 26,223 75-79 24,651 12,568 12,083

10 11,316 5,768 5,548 45 10,170 5,350 4,820 80 3,238 1,603 1,63511 11,350 5,788 5,562 46 8,789 4,576 4,213 81 2,938 1,455 1,48312 11,371 5,808 5,563 47 8,881 4,590 4,291 82 2,580 1,258 1,32213 11,332 5,799 5,533 48 8,221 4,161 4,060 83 2,181 1,024 1,15714 11,249 5,758 5,491 49 8,013 4,186 3,827 84 1,833 866 967

10-14 56,618 28,921 27,697 45-49 44,074 22,863 21,211 80-84 12,770 6,206 6,564

15 10,538 5,459 5,079 50 8,410 4,448 3,962 85 1,518 679 83916 10,708 5,566 5,142 51 7,561 3,859 3,702 86 1,225 532 69317 10,544 5,529 5,015 52 7,679 3,947 3,732 87 1,102 483 61918 9,944 5,116 4,828 53 7,947 4,151 3,796 88 885 366 51919 9,563 5,196 4,367 54 8,466 4,379 4,087 89 773 302 471

15-19 51,297 26,866 24,431 50-54 40,063 20,784 19,279 85-89 5,503 2,362 3,141

20 9,190 4,917 4,273 55 8,661 4,526 4,135 90 + 2,966 1,022 1,94421 9,174 4,978 4,196 56 7,597 4,014 3,58322 8,791 4,666 4,125 57 7,508 3,947 3,561 Total 758,645 388,857 369,78823 8,755 4,752 4,003 58 7,602 3,942 3,66024 8,957 4,827 4,130 59 7,816 4,078 3,738 16+ 581,958 298,582 283,376

18+ 560,706 287,487 273,21920-24 44,867 24,140 20,727 55-59 39,184 20,507 18,677 65+ 128,106 63,920 64,186


25-29 44,578 22,933 21,645 60-64 44,504 22,779 21,725

30 9,242 4,552 4,690 65 9,614 5,001 4,61331 9,622 4,781 4,841 66 8,712 4,407 4,30532 9,882 5,022 4,860 67 9,061 4,655 4,40633 10,060 5,076 4,984 68 8,802 4,350 4,45234 9,584 4,855 4,729 69 8,388 4,192 4,196

30-34 48,390 24,286 24,104 65-69 44,577 22,605 21,972





Under 1 14,368 7,342 7,026 35 14,553 7,598 6,955 70 9,333 4,700 4,6331 14,410 7,356 7,054 36 14,458 7,546 6,912 71 8,279 4,241 4,0382 14,520 7,407 7,113 37 14,855 7,735 7,120 72 7,968 4,069 3,8993 14,624 7,457 7,167 38 14,629 7,619 7,010 73 7,420 3,774 3,6464 14,732 7,522 7,210 39 15,100 7,864 7,236 74 6,581 3,394 3,187

0-4 72,654 37,084 35,570 35-39 73,595 38,362 35,233 70-74 39,581 20,178 19,403

5 14,764 7,535 7,229 40 15,055 7,870 7,185 75 6,508 3,372 3,1366 14,812 7,550 7,262 41 14,421 7,542 6,879 76 5,687 2,926 2,7617 14,841 7,579 7,262 42 14,368 7,526 6,842 77 5,245 2,682 2,5638 14,844 7,577 7,267 43 13,306 6,993 6,313 78 4,817 2,427 2,3909 14,849 7,572 7,277 44 13,140 6,908 6,232 79 3,550 1,729 1,821

5-9 74,110 37,813 36,297 40-44 70,290 36,839 33,451 75-79 25,807 13,136 12,671

10 14,814 7,552 7,262 45 13,041 6,973 6,068 80 3,408 1,679 1,72911 14,767 7,533 7,234 46 11,541 6,140 5,401 81 3,091 1,522 1,56912 14,702 7,512 7,190 47 11,518 6,095 5,423 82 2,719 1,317 1,40213 14,555 7,452 7,103 48 10,755 5,612 5,143 83 2,309 1,077 1,23214 14,347 7,348 6,999 49 10,434 5,577 4,857 84 1,949 911 1,038

10-14 73,185 37,397 35,788 45-49 57,289 30,397 26,892 80-84 13,476 6,506 6,970

15 13,532 7,000 6,532 50 10,712 5,776 4,936 85 1,622 717 90516 13,583 7,047 6,536 51 9,745 5,119 4,626 86 1,319 565 75417 13,296 6,952 6,344 52 9,744 5,138 4,606 87 1,185 511 67418 12,465 6,417 6,048 53 9,901 5,276 4,625 88 957 389 56819 11,953 6,419 5,534 54 10,296 5,434 4,862 89 838 322 516

15-19 64,829 33,835 30,994 50-54 50,398 26,743 23,655 85-89 5,921 2,504 3,417

20 11,584 6,141 5,443 55 10,381 5,514 4,867 90 + 3,224 1,092 2,13221 11,657 6,260 5,397 56 9,204 4,933 4,27122 11,416 6,040 5,376 57 9,008 4,803 4,205 Total 958,638 496,170 462,46823 11,546 6,227 5,319 58 9,004 4,742 4,26224 11,963 6,425 5,538 59 9,117 4,820 4,297 16+ 725,157 376,876 348,281

18+ 698,278 362,877 335,40120-24 58,166 31,093 27,073 55-59 46,714 24,812 21,902 65+ 135,831 67,785 68,046


25-29 62,520 32,574 29,946 60-64 49,634 25,647 23,987

30 13,277 6,743 6,534 65 10,394 5,431 4,96331 13,771 7,043 6,728 66 9,421 4,794 4,62732 14,114 7,336 6,778 67 9,706 5,004 4,70233 14,366 7,442 6,924 68 9,386 4,665 4,72134 13,895 7,225 6,670 69 8,915 4,475 4,440

30-34 69,423 35,789 33,634 65-69 47,822 24,369 23,453





Under 1 12,599 6,438 6,161 35 11,494 5,767 5,727 70 9,048 4,638 4,4101 12,539 6,401 6,138 36 11,799 5,949 5,850 71 8,154 4,063 4,0912 12,553 6,404 6,149 37 12,040 6,178 5,862 72 8,388 4,240 4,1483 12,580 6,415 6,165 38 12,220 6,229 5,991 73 8,103 3,956 4,1474 12,631 6,449 6,182 39 11,685 5,988 5,697 74 7,646 3,766 3,880

0-4 62,902 32,107 30,795 35-39 59,238 30,111 29,127 70-74 41,339 20,663 20,676

5 12,645 6,453 6,192 40 12,316 6,353 5,963 75 7,988 3,954 4,0346 12,702 6,474 6,228 41 12,264 6,331 5,933 76 7,007 3,529 3,4787 12,764 6,518 6,246 42 12,671 6,538 6,133 77 6,701 3,364 3,3378 12,821 6,544 6,277 43 12,425 6,419 6,006 78 6,174 3,063 3,1119 12,900 6,578 6,322 44 12,944 6,693 6,251 79 5,375 2,693 2,682

5-9 63,832 32,567 31,265 40-44 62,620 32,334 30,286 75-79 33,245 16,603 16,642

10 12,958 6,605 6,353 45 12,932 6,716 6,216 80 5,239 2,639 2,60011 13,021 6,641 6,380 46 12,324 6,417 5,907 81 4,487 2,240 2,24712 13,088 6,686 6,402 47 12,331 6,432 5,899 82 4,006 1,970 2,03613 13,103 6,707 6,396 48 11,375 5,957 5,418 83 3,583 1,738 1,84514 13,074 6,695 6,379 49 11,248 5,895 5,353 84 2,539 1,165 1,374

10-14 65,244 33,334 31,910 45-49 60,210 31,417 28,793 80-84 19,854 9,752 10,102

15 13,023 6,678 6,345 50 11,164 5,967 5,197 85 2,359 1,085 1,27416 12,930 6,639 6,291 51 9,683 5,124 4,559 86 2,040 921 1,11917 12,815 6,593 6,222 52 9,660 5,066 4,594 87 1,736 772 96418 12,182 6,276 5,906 53 8,902 4,577 4,325 88 1,394 584 81019 11,963 6,309 5,654 54 8,574 4,540 4,034 89 1,141 489 652

15-19 62,913 32,495 30,418 50-54 47,983 25,274 22,709 85-89 8,670 3,851 4,819

20 11,181 6,024 5,157 55 8,884 4,739 4,145 90 + 3,822 1,404 2,41821 11,328 6,127 5,201 56 7,957 4,108 3,84922 10,963 5,898 5,065 57 7,992 4,153 3,839 Total 879,823 451,555 428,26823 10,899 5,791 5,108 58 8,163 4,302 3,86124 10,773 5,858 4,915 59 8,596 4,476 4,120 16+ 674,822 346,869 327,953

18+ 649,077 333,637 315,44020-24 55,144 29,698 25,446 55-59 41,592 21,778 19,814 65+ 149,808 74,069 75,739


25-29 53,622 27,629 25,993 60-64 39,026 20,435 18,591

30 11,358 5,863 5,495 65 8,543 4,402 4,14131 11,013 5,578 5,435 66 8,389 4,341 4,04832 10,883 5,484 5,399 67 8,722 4,424 4,29833 11,210 5,677 5,533 68 8,587 4,303 4,28434 11,225 5,705 5,520 69 8,637 4,326 4,311

30-34 55,689 28,307 27,382 65-69 42,878 21,796 21,082





Under 1 10,546 5,389 5,157 35 9,263 4,552 4,711 70 8,714 4,458 4,2561 10,476 5,348 5,128 36 9,547 4,720 4,827 71 7,850 3,900 3,9502 10,471 5,342 5,129 37 9,769 4,936 4,833 72 8,113 4,094 4,0193 10,486 5,347 5,139 38 9,926 4,970 4,956 73 7,854 3,824 4,0304 10,527 5,374 5,153 39 9,405 4,733 4,672 74 7,421 3,648 3,773

0-4 52,506 26,800 25,706 35-39 47,910 23,911 23,999 70-74 39,952 19,924 20,028

5 10,545 5,381 5,164 40 10,079 5,116 4,963 75 7,786 3,849 3,9376 10,605 5,405 5,200 41 10,081 5,122 4,959 76 6,827 3,437 3,3907 10,674 5,450 5,224 42 10,564 5,369 5,195 77 6,538 3,281 3,2578 10,743 5,483 5,260 43 10,404 5,293 5,111 78 6,027 2,991 3,0369 10,837 5,526 5,311 44 11,014 5,615 5,399 79 5,245 2,631 2,614

5-9 53,404 27,245 26,159 40-44 52,142 26,515 25,627 75-79 32,423 16,189 16,234

10 10,915 5,563 5,352 45 11,092 5,684 5,408 80 5,123 2,585 2,53811 11,001 5,610 5,391 46 10,568 5,428 5,140 81 4,383 2,193 2,19012 11,093 5,666 5,427 47 10,656 5,485 5,171 82 3,913 1,929 1,98413 11,146 5,704 5,442 48 9,771 5,047 4,724 83 3,500 1,702 1,79814 11,164 5,715 5,449 49 9,718 5,025 4,693 84 2,465 1,135 1,330

10-14 55,319 28,258 27,061 45-49 51,805 26,669 25,136 80-84 19,384 9,544 9,840

15 11,163 5,722 5,441 50 9,709 5,137 4,572 85 2,293 1,060 1,23316 11,130 5,713 5,417 51 8,301 4,335 3,966 86 1,983 900 1,08317 11,078 5,697 5,381 52 8,348 4,316 4,032 87 1,686 754 93218 10,579 5,451 5,128 53 7,653 3,863 3,790 88 1,350 569 78119 10,458 5,540 4,918 54 7,394 3,863 3,531 89 1,101 476 625

15-19 54,408 28,123 26,285 50-54 41,405 21,514 19,891 85-89 8,413 3,759 4,654

20 9,705 5,272 4,433 55 7,769 4,099 3,670 90 + 3,667 1,361 2,30621 9,841 5,364 4,477 56 6,909 3,507 3,40222 9,444 5,110 4,334 57 7,009 3,588 3,421 Total 762,212 388,637 373,57523 9,328 4,970 4,358 58 7,243 3,773 3,47024 9,124 4,993 4,131 59 7,741 3,984 3,757 16+ 589,820 300,612 289,208

18+ 567,612 289,202 278,41020-24 47,442 25,709 21,733 55-59 36,671 18,951 17,720 65+ 144,480 71,337 73,143


25-29 44,170 22,613 21,557 60-64 35,606 18,491 17,115

30 9,280 4,748 4,532 65 8,011 4,103 3,90831 8,890 4,435 4,455 66 7,902 4,070 3,83232 8,731 4,321 4,410 67 8,278 4,180 4,09833 9,028 4,492 4,536 68 8,181 4,081 4,10034 9,015 4,505 4,510 69 8,269 4,126 4,143

30-34 44,944 22,501 22,443 65-69 40,641 20,560 20,081





Under 1 15,574 7,958 7,616 35 14,714 7,523 7,191 70 9,512 4,888 4,6241 15,525 7,925 7,600 36 15,031 7,715 7,316 71 8,576 4,288 4,2882 15,564 7,940 7,624 37 15,284 7,954 7,330 72 8,771 4,444 4,3273 15,607 7,958 7,649 38 15,480 8,021 7,459 73 8,448 4,138 4,3104 15,668 8,000 7,668 39 14,913 7,767 7,146 74 7,958 3,929 4,029

0-4 77,938 39,781 38,157 35-39 75,422 38,980 36,442 70-74 43,265 21,687 21,578

5 15,670 7,997 7,673 40 15,479 8,103 7,376 75 8,269 4,100 4,1696 15,717 8,011 7,706 41 15,345 8,039 7,306 76 7,259 3,658 3,6017 15,761 8,049 7,712 42 15,639 8,188 7,451 77 6,926 3,477 3,4498 15,792 8,061 7,731 43 15,273 8,008 7,265 78 6,378 3,162 3,2169 15,845 8,080 7,765 44 15,664 8,215 7,449 79 5,559 2,780 2,779

5-9 78,785 40,198 38,587 40-44 77,400 40,553 36,847 75-79 34,391 17,177 17,214

10 15,869 8,090 7,779 45 15,527 8,174 7,353 80 5,403 2,715 2,68811 15,896 8,109 7,787 46 14,799 7,814 6,985 81 4,633 2,307 2,32612 15,923 8,136 7,787 47 14,694 7,770 6,924 82 4,135 2,027 2,10813 15,880 8,131 7,749 48 13,637 7,243 6,394 83 3,702 1,789 1,91314 15,779 8,082 7,697 49 13,406 7,123 6,283 84 2,645 1,208 1,437

10-14 79,347 40,548 38,799 45-49 72,063 38,124 33,939 80-84 20,518 10,046 10,472

15 15,655 8,031 7,624 50 13,216 7,140 6,076 85 2,452 1,121 1,33116 15,475 7,949 7,526 51 11,631 6,238 5,393 86 2,122 951 1,17117 15,269 7,859 7,410 52 11,507 6,122 5,385 87 1,809 798 1,01118 14,443 7,441 7,002 53 10,661 5,583 5,078 88 1,456 605 85119 14,093 7,398 6,695 54 10,234 5,493 4,741 89 1,196 507 689

15-19 74,935 38,678 36,257 50-54 57,249 30,576 26,673 85-89 9,035 3,982 5,053

20 13,282 7,095 6,187 55 10,451 5,638 4,813 90 + 4,042 1,464 2,57821 13,464 7,224 6,240 56 9,431 4,953 4,47822 13,164 7,043 6,121 57 9,373 4,945 4,428 Total 1,047,897 541,524 506,37323 13,189 6,992 6,197 58 9,454 5,044 4,41024 13,191 7,131 6,060 59 9,795 5,165 4,630 16+ 796,172 412,966 383,206

18+ 765,428 397,158 368,27020-24 66,290 35,485 30,805 55-59 48,504 25,745 22,759 65+ 157,242 77,869 79,373


25-29 67,551 35,045 32,506 60-64 43,809 23,147 20,662

30 14,407 7,503 6,904 65 9,285 4,818 4,46731 14,121 7,256 6,865 66 9,066 4,717 4,34932 14,025 7,186 6,839 67 9,341 4,764 4,57733 14,384 7,404 6,980 68 9,151 4,610 4,54134 14,425 7,446 6,979 69 9,148 4,604 4,544

30-34 71,362 36,795 34,567 65-69 45,991 23,513 22,478





Under 1 13,399 6,847 6,552 35 11,951 6,177 5,774 70 7,765 3,934 3,8311 13,287 6,783 6,504 36 11,479 5,814 5,665 71 7,596 3,867 3,7292 13,228 6,749 6,479 37 11,292 5,685 5,607 72 7,857 3,917 3,9403 13,174 6,718 6,456 38 11,583 5,849 5,734 73 7,707 3,809 3,8984 13,135 6,706 6,429 39 11,526 5,850 5,676 74 7,698 3,796 3,902

0-4 66,223 33,803 32,420 35-39 57,831 29,375 28,456 70-74 38,623 19,323 19,300

5 13,054 6,662 6,392 40 11,737 5,891 5,846 75 8,009 4,048 3,9616 13,022 6,637 6,385 41 12,021 6,067 5,954 76 7,147 3,506 3,6417 13,007 6,642 6,365 42 12,195 6,271 5,924 77 7,295 3,631 3,6648 12,994 6,632 6,362 43 12,272 6,278 5,994 78 6,972 3,323 3,6499 13,018 6,638 6,380 44 11,703 6,023 5,680 79 6,469 3,096 3,373

5-9 65,095 33,211 31,884 40-44 59,928 30,530 29,398 75-79 35,892 17,604 18,288

10 13,041 6,647 6,394 45 12,270 6,356 5,914 80 6,648 3,201 3,44711 13,094 6,678 6,416 46 12,155 6,317 5,838 81 5,719 2,798 2,92112 13,166 6,726 6,440 47 12,527 6,507 6,020 82 5,295 2,560 2,73513 13,198 6,756 6,442 48 12,298 6,400 5,898 83 4,751 2,270 2,48114 13,202 6,761 6,441 49 12,771 6,651 6,120 84 3,997 1,895 2,102

10-14 65,701 33,568 32,133 45-49 62,021 32,231 29,790 80-84 26,410 12,724 13,686

15 13,198 6,769 6,429 50 12,697 6,643 6,054 85 3,765 1,778 1,98716 13,165 6,761 6,404 51 12,022 6,289 5,733 86 3,075 1,412 1,66317 13,128 6,755 6,373 52 11,957 6,252 5,705 87 2,657 1,203 1,45418 12,569 6,476 6,093 53 10,946 5,737 5,209 88 2,250 987 1,26319 12,437 6,551 5,886 54 10,739 5,636 5,103 89 1,555 653 902

15-19 64,497 33,312 31,185 50-54 58,361 30,557 27,804 85-89 13,302 6,033 7,269

20 12,348 6,562 5,786 55 10,624 5,674 4,950 90 + 5,518 2,162 3,35621 12,281 6,543 5,738 56 9,124 4,821 4,30322 12,017 6,330 5,687 57 9,068 4,750 4,318 Total 915,211 468,265 446,94623 12,042 6,383 5,659 58 8,281 4,251 4,03024 12,163 6,453 5,710 59 7,936 4,196 3,740 16+ 704,994 360,914 344,080

18+ 678,701 347,398 331,30320-24 60,851 32,271 28,580 55-59 45,033 23,692 21,341 65+ 155,382 76,315 79,067


25-29 58,561 30,392 28,169 60-64 38,231 19,889 18,342

30 11,362 5,690 5,672 65 8,013 4,171 3,84231 11,550 5,853 5,697 66 6,962 3,659 3,30332 11,491 5,798 5,693 67 6,823 3,554 3,26933 11,483 5,879 5,604 68 6,850 3,500 3,35034 11,610 5,899 5,711 69 6,989 3,585 3,404

30-34 57,496 29,119 28,377 65-69 35,637 18,469 17,168





Under 1 10,792 5,515 5,277 35 9,303 4,749 4,554 70 7,251 3,651 3,6001 10,681 5,453 5,228 36 8,822 4,378 4,444 71 7,125 3,610 3,5152 10,611 5,414 5,197 37 8,628 4,242 4,386 72 7,430 3,686 3,7443 10,551 5,380 5,171 38 8,904 4,393 4,511 73 7,319 3,600 3,7194 10,507 5,364 5,143 39 8,843 4,388 4,455 74 7,345 3,608 3,737

0-4 53,142 27,126 26,016 35-39 44,500 22,150 22,350 70-74 36,470 18,155 18,315

5 10,435 5,325 5,110 40 9,053 4,423 4,630 75 7,689 3,879 3,8106 10,407 5,304 5,103 41 9,333 4,592 4,741 76 6,859 3,356 3,5037 10,400 5,310 5,090 42 9,514 4,794 4,720 77 7,035 3,497 3,5388 10,399 5,307 5,092 43 9,602 4,800 4,802 78 6,738 3,205 3,5339 10,432 5,319 5,113 44 9,072 4,563 4,509 79 6,260 2,993 3,267

5-9 52,073 26,565 25,508 40-44 46,574 23,172 23,402 75-79 34,581 16,930 17,651

10 10,469 5,335 5,134 45 9,706 4,927 4,779 80 6,463 3,111 3,35211 10,535 5,372 5,163 46 9,670 4,928 4,742 81 5,555 2,720 2,83512 10,622 5,425 5,197 47 10,138 5,168 4,970 82 5,151 2,493 2,65813 10,683 5,468 5,215 48 10,005 5,110 4,895 83 4,622 2,212 2,41014 10,725 5,491 5,234 49 10,585 5,418 5,167 84 3,884 1,847 2,037

10-14 53,034 27,091 25,943 45-49 50,104 25,551 24,553 80-84 25,675 12,383 13,292

15 10,763 5,518 5,245 50 10,624 5,469 5,155 85 3,667 1,738 1,92916 10,782 5,536 5,246 51 10,060 5,177 4,883 86 2,990 1,379 1,61117 10,801 5,556 5,245 52 10,100 5,198 4,902 87 2,584 1,175 1,40918 10,394 5,357 5,037 53 9,182 4,735 4,447 88 2,187 964 1,22319 10,373 5,497 4,876 54 9,074 4,688 4,386 89 1,500 634 866

15-19 53,113 27,464 25,649 50-54 49,040 25,267 23,773 85-89 12,928 5,890 7,038

20 10,328 5,535 4,793 55 9,050 4,777 4,273 90 + 5,307 2,102 3,20521 10,259 5,510 4,749 56 7,641 3,976 3,66522 9,972 5,276 4,696 57 7,670 3,952 3,718 Total 761,879 386,461 375,41823 9,960 5,303 4,657 58 6,963 3,497 3,46624 10,015 5,335 4,680 59 6,702 3,488 3,214 16+ 592,867 300,161 292,706

18+ 571,284 289,069 282,21520-24 50,534 26,959 23,575 55-59 38,026 19,690 18,336 65+ 147,234 72,038 75,196


25-29 46,743 24,179 22,564 60-64 33,208 17,017 16,191

30 8,834 4,347 4,487 65 7,222 3,721 3,50131 8,980 4,482 4,498 66 6,235 3,248 2,98732 8,898 4,410 4,488 67 6,154 3,179 2,97533 8,867 4,472 4,395 68 6,235 3,157 3,07834 8,975 4,481 4,494 69 6,427 3,273 3,154

30-34 44,554 22,192 22,362 65-69 32,273 16,578 15,695





Under 1 17,337 8,859 8,478 35 15,981 8,358 7,623 70 8,498 4,336 4,1621 17,226 8,794 8,432 36 15,507 7,997 7,510 71 8,265 4,231 4,0342 17,183 8,766 8,417 37 15,317 7,871 7,446 72 8,466 4,246 4,2203 17,137 8,739 8,398 38 15,614 8,046 7,568 73 8,260 4,105 4,1554 17,103 8,733 8,370 39 15,549 8,047 7,502 74 8,199 4,062 4,137

0-4 85,986 43,891 42,095 35-39 77,968 40,319 37,649 70-74 41,688 20,980 20,708

5 17,002 8,677 8,325 40 15,741 8,087 7,654 75 8,463 4,286 4,1776 16,955 8,642 8,313 41 16,013 8,263 7,750 76 7,558 3,719 3,8397 16,922 8,642 8,280 42 16,156 8,459 7,697 77 7,663 3,820 3,8438 16,884 8,618 8,266 43 16,194 8,453 7,741 78 7,305 3,490 3,8159 16,885 8,610 8,275 44 15,552 8,164 7,388 79 6,767 3,242 3,525

5-9 84,648 43,189 41,459 40-44 79,656 41,426 38,230 75-79 37,756 18,557 19,199

10 16,879 8,605 8,274 45 16,012 8,445 7,567 80 6,913 3,328 3,58511 16,902 8,622 8,280 46 15,772 8,344 7,428 81 5,955 2,909 3,04612 16,944 8,658 8,286 47 16,004 8,461 7,543 82 5,503 2,655 2,84813 16,926 8,667 8,259 48 15,635 8,282 7,353 83 4,937 2,353 2,58414 16,863 8,638 8,225 49 15,948 8,446 7,502 84 4,160 1,964 2,196

10-14 84,514 43,190 41,324 45-49 79,371 41,978 37,393 80-84 27,468 13,209 14,259

15 16,790 8,614 8,176 50 15,710 8,353 7,357 85 3,908 1,836 2,07216 16,671 8,564 8,107 51 14,875 7,909 6,966 86 3,198 1,459 1,73917 16,544 8,516 8,028 52 14,658 7,786 6,872 87 2,765 1,243 1,52218 15,755 8,116 7,639 53 13,511 7,195 6,316 88 2,342 1,020 1,32219 15,463 8,097 7,366 54 13,160 7,015 6,145 89 1,636 680 956

15-19 81,223 41,907 39,316 50-54 71,914 38,258 33,656 85-89 13,849 6,238 7,611

20 15,322 8,076 7,246 55 12,912 6,978 5,934 90 + 5,829 2,251 3,57821 15,281 8,078 7,203 56 11,277 6,048 5,22922 15,077 7,912 7,165 57 11,095 5,906 5,189 Total 1,143,334 590,073 553,26123 15,182 8,018 7,164 58 10,189 5,342 4,84724 15,428 8,160 7,268 59 9,720 5,219 4,501 16+ 871,396 451,189 420,207

18+ 838,181 434,109 404,07220-24 76,290 40,244 36,046 55-59 55,193 29,493 25,700 65+ 167,049 82,407 84,642


25-29 76,721 39,980 36,741 60-64 45,467 24,016 21,451

30 15,253 7,766 7,487 65 9,149 4,816 4,33331 15,498 7,967 7,531 66 8,005 4,247 3,75832 15,468 7,934 7,534 67 7,781 4,090 3,69133 15,485 8,039 7,446 68 7,730 3,989 3,74134 15,630 8,069 7,561 69 7,794 4,030 3,764

30-34 77,334 39,775 37,559 65-69 40,459 21,172 19,287



Introduction

This section presents population projections for Alaska’s Native (based on the Alaska “bridged” race estimates) and non-Native populations, by age and sex, from 2010 through 2035. While the Native projections include all Native Americans residing in Alaska, this group is dominated by Alaska Natives and will be referred to here as Alaska Natives.

The Alaska Native population currently represents approximately 17 percent of the state’s total population. With high fertility and relatively low rates of migration, Alaska Natives represent a source of stable population growth for the state. Given the rela-tively consistent rates of change for the Native population over time and inconsistent defi nitions of “Native” in historical data, the Research and Analysis Section decided not to create high and low scenario projections for Alaska Natives. Users should be aware, though, that these projections are based on recent rates, which will vary to some degree over time.1

Methodology

The Research and Analysis Section divided the Alaska Native pop-ulation into fi ve-year age-groups according to sex, and projected them forward in fi ve-year steps from the 2010 Alaska Native “bridged” race population estimates, using the “cohort compo-nent” method. Projected births and in-migrants were added and projected deaths and out-migrants subtracted from the appropriate age-by-sex group.

The projections for Alaska’s non-Native population are the “base-line” projection for the statewide population, minus the projected Alaska Native population. Recent statewide Alaska Native fertility and mortality data by age were used to estimate natural increase. Age specifi c migration patterns were estimated using the Alaska Native 2000, 2005, and 2010 “bridged” race estimates.

Mortality

Mortality rates for Alaska Natives are among the highest in the United States. Future life expectancy for Alaska Natives was pro-jected using model parameters based on the U.S. Social Security Administration’s projections for change in U.S. life expectancy over the projection period.

As shown in Table 1.2, between 2010 and 2030, life expectancy at birth for Alaska Natives is projected to increase by 2.4 years for males and 1.6 years for females. Across the period, life expectancy is projected to increase from 68.6 to 71.6 for males and from 73.3 to 75.3 for females.

Due to the overall aging of the population, the annual crude death

rate (number of deaths per 1,000 people) for Native Alaskans is ex-pected to increase from approximately 6.9 in 2010 (based on recent Alaska vital statistics and population estimates data) to 8.7 in 2035.

Fertility

Fertility rates for Alaska Natives are also among the highest in the nation. In 2010, the total fertility rate (TFR) — the number of children per woman in a lifetime — was 3.4 for Alaska Natives. A TFR of 3.3 is used to project Alaska Natives, as it was the mean TFR for this group from 2000 to 2010.

With the slightly lowered TFR and aging of the Alaska Native population, the annual crude birth rate (number of births per 1,000 people) is expected to decrease from 24 in 2010 to roughly 22.5 in 2035.

Migration

Rates of migration into and out of Alaska by Alaska Natives are relatively low compared to the state population as a whole. Using data from the 2000, 2005, and 2010 “bridged” race estimates, Native Alaskans had an estimated annual net-migration ratio of approximately -.5 percent (of the Alaska Native population). The migration profi le was held fi xed for the projected period.2

Overall Population Change

Alaska Natives are projected to increase steadily through 2035, from 122,480 in 2010 to 159,633 in 2035. Further, Alaska Natives are projected to slightly increase as a share of Alaska’s total popu-lation, from 17.1 percent in 2010 to 17.4 percent in 2035. Annual births and deaths for Alaska Natives are both projected to increase over the projection period; however, the numbers of births are expected to be consistently higher.

Aging

Aging will play a major role in population change for Alaska Na-tives over the projection period. The median age for the population is projected to rise from 26.7 to 30.2 between 2010 and 2035. The proportion of the Alaska Native population aged 65+ is projected to almost double between 2010 and 2035, rising from 6. 5 percent to 12.2 percent.

1Further description of the Native “bridged” estimates, the projec-tion methodology, and the methods for estimating age-by-sex spe-cifi c mortality, fertility, and migration are provided in Appendix A.2Appendix A gives description of the method used to estimate Alaska Native migration.

Section 2Alaska Native and Non-Native Population Projections


Figure 2.1Alaska Native and Non-Native Estimated Population by Age and Sex, 2010

90+

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Age

051015202530 5303520251015053


Alaska NativeNon-Native



Figure 2.2Alaska Native and Non-Native Projected Population by Age and Sex, 2035

90+

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Age

051015202530 5303520251015053

Alaska NativeNon-Native




Table 2.1Alaska Native Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035

July 1, 2010 Estimate July 1, 2015 ProjectedAge Total Male Female Age Total Male Female

0-4 12,521 6,521 6,000 0-4 14,005 7,321 6,6845-9 11,529 5,891 5,638 5-9 12,080 6,192 5,88810-14 11,486 5,947 5,539 10-14 12,469 6,304 6,16515-19 11,775 6,096 5,679 15-19 10,866 5,656 5,21020-24 10,833 5,584 5,249 20-24 9,819 5,134 4,68525-29 9,192 4,649 4,543 25-29 10,177 5,199 4,97830-34 7,498 3,815 3,683 30-34 10,096 5,090 5,00635-39 6,732 3,403 3,329 35-39 7,241 3,756 3,48540-44 7,107 3,631 3,476 40-44 6,514 3,330 3,18445-49 8,069 4,026 4,043 45-49 6,973 3,554 3,41950-54 7,341 3,587 3,754 50-54 7,779 3,890 3,88955-59 6,096 3,025 3,071 55-59 7,205 3,545 3,66060-64 4,298 2,089 2,209 60-64 5,679 2,804 2,87565-69 2,983 1,469 1,514 65-69 3,893 1,890 2,00370-74 1,992 961 1,031 70-74 2,497 1,193 1,30475-79 1,481 618 863 75-79 1,556 707 84980-84 938 405 533 80-84 1,050 394 65685-89 418 149 269 85-89 519 193 32690+ 191 64 127 90+ 242 85 157

Total 122,480 61,930 60,550 Total 130,660 66,237 64,423Median Age 26.7 26.0 27.4 Median Age 28.0 27.4 28.6

July 1, 2020 Projected July 1, 2025 ProjectedAge Total Male Female Age Total Male Female

0-4 14,135 7,389 6,746 0-4 14,210 7,429 6,7815-9 13,514 6,953 6,561 5-9 13,642 7,019 6,62310-14 13,065 6,627 6,438 10-14 14,618 7,443 7,17515-19 11,798 5,998 5,800 15-19 12,365 6,307 6,05820-24 9,065 4,766 4,299 20-24 9,844 5,057 4,78725-29 9,230 4,786 4,444 25-29 8,529 4,449 4,08030-34 11,188 5,699 5,489 30-34 10,154 5,252 4,90235-39 9,757 5,017 4,740 35-39 10,824 5,623 5,20140-44 7,017 3,682 3,335 40-44 9,465 4,925 4,54045-49 6,398 3,263 3,135 45-49 6,899 3,612 3,28750-54 6,733 3,440 3,293 50-54 6,187 3,164 3,02355-59 7,653 3,855 3,798 55-59 6,638 3,418 3,22060-64 6,728 3,295 3,433 60-64 7,161 3,592 3,56965-69 5,160 2,546 2,614 65-69 6,133 3,004 3,12970-74 3,275 1,544 1,731 70-74 4,359 2,092 2,26775-79 1,964 885 1,079 75-79 2,594 1,155 1,43980-84 1,105 456 649 80-84 1,406 577 82985-89 593 190 403 85-89 623 222 40190+ 304 112 192 90+ 359 122 237




Table 2.1, cont.Alaska Native Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 14,566 7,616 6,950 0-4 15,302 8,001 7,3015-9 13,718 7,059 6,659 5-9 14,064 7,238 6,82610-14 14,757 7,514 7,243 10-14 14,841 7,558 7,28315-19 13,837 7,085 6,752 15-19 13,972 7,155 6,81720-24 10,322 5,321 5,001 20-24 11,555 5,980 5,57525-29 9,270 4,726 4,544 25-29 9,727 4,978 4,74930-34 9,391 4,888 4,503 30-34 10,216 5,198 5,01835-39 9,834 5,187 4,647 35-39 9,104 4,832 4,27240-44 10,512 5,527 4,985 40-44 9,562 5,105 4,45745-49 9,316 4,838 4,478 45-49 10,357 5,435 4,92250-54 6,682 3,509 3,173 50-54 9,034 4,707 4,32755-59 6,113 3,152 2,961 55-59 6,616 3,504 3,11260-64 6,224 3,193 3,031 60-64 5,743 2,951 2,79265-69 6,548 3,287 3,261 65-69 5,708 2,932 2,77670-74 5,204 2,481 2,723 70-74 5,577 2,730 2,84775-79 3,472 1,579 1,893 75-79 4,172 1,888 2,28480-84 1,873 762 1,111 80-84 2,523 1,053 1,47085-89 801 285 516 85-89 1,076 381 69590+ 395 140 255 90+ 484 174 310


Table 2.31Population and Components of Population Change, 2010-2035

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Population at Start ofPeriod 122,480 130,660 138,682 146,010 152,835

Population at End ofPeriod 130,660 138,682 146,010 152,835 159,633

Average AnnualBirths 3,231 3,259 3,275 3,356 3,524

Average AnnualDeaths 915 1,008 1,111 1,229 1,355

Average Annual NetMigrants -680 -647 -698 -762 -809

Average AnnualChange 1,636 1,604 1,466 1,365 1,360

Average Annual PercentChange 1.34% 1.23% 1.06% 0.93% 0.89%

* Average annual numbers are rounded to whole numbers.Note: This table was revised for rounding errors in January 2013.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


Table 2.2Non-Native Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 41,772 21,528 20,244 0-4 46,038 23,329 22,7095-9 39,639 20,291 19,348 5-9 43,977 22,742 21,23510-14 39,610 20,344 19,266 10-14 40,221 20,692 19,52915-19 40,653 21,233 19,420 15-19 39,677 20,685 18,99220-24 43,884 24,285 19,599 20-24 41,345 22,442 18,90325-29 46,534 24,820 21,714 25-29 46,882 24,803 22,07930-34 40,471 21,183 19,288 30-34 48,466 25,301 23,16535-39 39,352 20,458 18,894 35-39 42,397 22,054 20,34340-44 40,294 21,150 19,144 40-44 40,066 20,824 19,24245-49 46,959 24,529 22,430 45-49 39,867 21,091 18,77650-54 49,270 25,863 23,407 50-54 45,446 23,776 21,67055-59 44,151 23,515 20,636 55-59 46,382 24,225 22,15760-64 31,839 17,248 14,591 60-64 41,075 21,699 19,37665-69 19,340 10,308 9,032 65-69 28,987 15,511 13,47670-74 11,228 5,739 5,489 70-74 17,136 8,962 8,17475-79 7,459 3,554 3,905 75-79 9,587 4,787 4,80080-84 5,079 2,229 2,850 80-84 5,813 2,632 3,18185-89 2,874 1,075 1,799 85-89 3,389 1,338 2,05190+ 1,254 381 873 90+ 1,833 572 1,261



0-4 47,333 23,987 23,346 0-4 47,525 24,083 23,4425-9 48,400 24,637 23,763 5-9 49,813 25,358 24,45510-14 44,608 23,171 21,437 10-14 49,003 25,061 23,94215-19 40,289 21,031 19,258 15-19 44,651 23,503 21,14820-24 40,015 21,708 18,307 20-24 40,572 21,981 18,59125-29 44,597 23,098 21,499 25-29 43,506 22,487 21,01930-34 48,980 25,373 23,607 30-34 47,070 23,862 23,20835-39 50,538 26,212 24,326 35-39 51,208 26,358 24,85040-44 43,167 22,449 20,718 40-44 51,356 26,614 24,74245-49 39,668 20,798 18,870 45-49 42,764 22,435 20,32950-54 38,466 20,425 18,041 50-54 38,252 20,144 18,10855-59 42,593 22,175 20,418 55-59 35,738 18,915 16,82360-64 43,219 22,380 20,839 60-64 39,519 20,404 19,11565-69 37,754 19,692 18,062 65-69 39,823 20,352 19,47170-74 25,986 13,670 12,316 70-74 34,107 17,500 16,60775-79 14,751 7,561 7,190 75-79 22,547 11,654 10,89380-84 7,521 3,594 3,927 80-84 11,661 5,755 5,90685-89 3,895 1,587 2,308 85-89 5,057 2,201 2,85690+ 2,300 758 1,542 90+ 2,717 930 1,787




Table 2.2, cont.Non-Native Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 48,336 24,491 23,845 0-4 50,921 25,802 25,1195-9 50,114 25,508 24,606 5-9 51,031 25,973 25,05810-14 50,487 25,820 24,667 10-14 50,860 26,010 24,85015-19 49,076 25,410 23,666 15-19 50,525 26,157 24,36820-24 44,822 24,377 20,445 20-24 49,296 26,291 23,00525-29 44,352 22,903 21,449 25-29 48,834 25,414 23,42030-34 46,298 23,419 22,879 30-34 47,280 23,921 23,35935-39 49,404 24,924 24,480 35-39 48,727 24,543 24,18440-44 52,108 26,807 25,301 40-44 50,366 25,425 24,94145-49 50,894 26,579 24,315 45-49 51,664 26,796 24,86850-54 41,301 21,765 19,536 50-54 49,327 25,850 23,47755-59 35,479 18,626 16,853 55-59 38,417 20,188 18,22960-64 32,802 17,242 15,560 60-64 32,488 16,938 15,55065-69 36,330 18,509 17,821 65-69 29,929 15,537 14,39270-74 36,135 18,182 17,953 70-74 33,046 16,593 16,45375-79 29,773 15,024 14,749 75-79 31,720 15,716 16,00480-84 17,981 8,990 8,991 80-84 23,887 11,671 12,21685-89 7,869 3,566 4,303 85-89 12,226 5,652 6,57490+ 3,427 1,264 2,163 90+ 5,034 1,988 3,046



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035




Average AnnualDeaths 3,097 3,661 4,343 5,149 6,041

Average Annual NetMigrants 1,933 1,975 2,099 2,228 2,336



* Average annual numbers are rounded to whole numbers.Note: This table was revised for rounding errors in January 2013.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


Introduction

This section presents population projections for Alaska’s economic regions, boroughs, and census areas by age and sex. There is a much higher degree of uncertainty with projections of less populated and smaller areas. Inter-borough migration, highly specifi c policy and economic factors, and unique historical events all play important roles.

Single projections based on recent trends are presented at the borough and census area level. Users of this data should be aware that countless unforeseen factors could sway many of the populations dramatically. The projected populations for each economic region, borough, and census area are presented by age and sex, in fi ve-year age groups from 2010 to 2035.

Methodology

For each borough and census area projection, the Research and Analysis Section divided the population into age-by-sex groups and projected them forward in fi ve-year increments from the 2010 population estimate using the “cohort component” method. Projected births and in-migrants were added and deaths and out-migrants subtracted from the appropriate age-by-sex group at each step. The projections for Alaska’s economic regions are the sums of the boroughs and census areas they cover.1

Each of the borough and census area populations was projected independently, with recent age-specifi c fertility rates used to project births, recent and projected age-by-sex specifi c mortality rates used to project deaths, and recent annual migration data (adjusted for fi ve-year intervals) and age-by-sex migration profi les used to project migration.

For some of the less populated boroughs and census areas, data are quite limited — it was necessary in certain cases to pool data from similar areas. Further, the group quarters population (population not living in households) were held constant in age, sex, and size for Aleutians East Borough, Aleutians West Census Area, and North Slope Borough. The military populations in Anchorage and Fairbanks were also held constant in age, sex, and size over the projection period.2

The sum of the individual borough and census area projections at each step matched closely to the baseline statewide projection. Any discrepancies between the baseline state projection and the sum of the borough and census area projections were eliminated with a statistical fi tting procedure.3

Births

In 2010, the crude birth rate (the number of births per 1,000 people) was 16.3 in Alaska. With the overall aging of Alaska’s population, this fi gure is projected to decline to approximately 14.5 in 2035. The crude birth rates vary greatly among the boroughs and census areas of Alaska, with the highest crude birth rates in 2010 found in Wade Hampton Census Area at 31.8, Northwest Arctic Borough at 27.7, Bethel Census Area at 26, and North Slope Borough at 25.2.

The lowest crude birth rates for 2010 were found along the Aleutian Chain and primarily in Southeast Alaska. In the Aleutians West Census Area and Aleutians East Borough, where much of the population lives in group quarters for fi shing and fi sh processing, the crude birth rates were 7.3 and 7.5, respectively. Other low rates were found in Haines Borough at 9, Bristol Bay at 10.4, and Wrangell at 10.6.

The rank-order of crude birth rates for Alaska’s boroughs and census areas is not expected to change much over the projection period. While there will certainly be changes in these values as the population composition changes over time, places with relatively high birth rates will likely remain comparatively high, and those with low birth rates will likely remain relatively low.

Deaths

In 2010, the crude death rate (the number of deaths per 1,000 people) was 5.2 in Alaska. The greatest contributing factor to this fi gure is the ratio of elderly persons to the overall population. Over time, as Alaska’s population gains a higher proportion of elderly people, this fi gure will increase.

Like crude birth rates, crude death rates vary among the boroughs and census areas. The highest crude death rates in 2010 were found in Petersburg Census Area at 9, Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area at 8.2, and Bristol Bay Borough at 8.1. Those with the lowest crude deaths rates included Aleutians East Borough at 1.8, Denali Borough at 2.3, and Aleutians West Census Area at 2.5.

As Alaska’s population ages over the projection period, there will likely be increases in the crude death rates for all of the boroughs and census areas.

1Further description of the cohort component method is provided in Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot.2Appendix A gives further description of the methods for estimating age specifi c mortality, fertility, and migration rates.3A description of iterative proportional fi tting is provided in Smith, Tayman, and Swanson (2001).

Section 3Alaska Region, Borough, and Census Area Population Projections


Migration

As with statewide migration, migration into and out of Alaska’s boroughs and census areas represents a highly unstable component of population change. Two values were used to project migration for Alaska’s boroughs and census areas: the annual net-migration ratio (net-migration divided by the borough or census area’s mid-year population) and the annual out-migration rate (the number of out-migrants divided by the borough or census area’s mid-year population). Both of these values were estimated annually for each borough and census area from 2000 to 2010, and used to project migration through 2035. The migrants were distributed proportionally using age-by-sex migration profiles to estimate the number of migrants for each specific age-by-sex group. The migration levels applied for the projection period broadly reflect those in recent history.

Areas with expected positive net-migration throughout the projection period include Matanuska-Susitna Borough and Kenai Peninsula Borough. Negative net-migration in the boroughs and census areas in Southeast Alaska are projected to be strong enough to outweigh growth from natural increase (births minus deaths).

Rural boroughs and census areas with high fertility rates, such as Wade Hampton Census Area, Nome Census Areas, and Northwest Arctic Borough, are projected to have high negative values for net-migration but grow continuously through natural increase.

Overall Results

The general population trends for Alaska’s economic regions include some degree of growth over the projection period for all of Alaska’s regions except Southeast. As shown in Figure 2.1, strongest growth is projected for the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region, with Matanuska-Susitna Borough’s population projected to nearly double over the projection period. Though the continuation of recent population trends yields no growth for Southeast Alaska, it is certainly possible for these trends to change over time.

No change is expected in the population rank-ordering of the regions over the projection period. The Northern and Southwest regions are projected to continue growing through high fertility rates, despite somewhat strong net losses from migration.

The boroughs/census areas with the highest levels of projected average annual growth over the period include Mat-Su Borough at 3.2 percent, Wade Hampton Census Area at 1.7 percent, and Fairbanks North Star Borough at 1.4 percent. The boroughs and census areas with the greatest levels of projected average annual population loss over the projection period are Hoonah-Angoon Census Area at -1.4 percent, Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area at -1 percent, and Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area at -.8 percent.

Source: Alaska Department of Labor & Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350

100

200

300

400

500

600

Thousands

NorthernSouthwestGulf CoastSoutheastInteriorAnchorage/Mat-Su

Figure 3.1Alaska Population by Economic Region: 1970 – 2010 Estimated; 2015 – 2035 Projected


Table 3.1Alaska Region, Borough, and Census Area Population, 2010 – 2035

July 1, 2010 July 1, 2015 July 1, 2020 July 1, 2025 July 1, 2030 July 1, 2035Estimate Projection Projection Projection Projection Projection

State of Alaska 714,142 759,244 802,762 842,899 879,823 915,211

Anchorage/Mat-Su Region 382,958 414,381 445,319 474,850 502,808 529,494 Anchorage Borough 293,237 311,311 328,097 343,086 356,480 368,801 Matanuska-Susitna Borough 89,721 103,070 117,222 131,764 146,328 160,693

Gulf Coast Region 79,051 82,338 85,308 87,640 89,207 90,240 Kenai Peninsula Borough 55,712 59,073 62,174 64,761 66,700 68,140 Kodiak Island Borough 13,655 13,718 13,739 13,699 13,593 13,496 Valdez-Cordova Census Area 9,684 9,547 9,395 9,180 8,914 8,604

Interior Region 112,496 120,647 128,169 134,881 141,014 146,960 Denali Borough 1,826 1,796 1,752 1,706 1,654 1,596

Fairbanks North Star Borough 98,000 105,928 113,275 119,910 126,067 132,076 Southeast Fairbanks Census Area 7,055 7,635 8,141 8,529 8,817 9,056 Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area 5,615 5,288 5,001 4,736 4,476 4,232

Northern Region 26,597 27,303 28,001 28,663 29,433 30,509 Nome Census Area 9,556 9,964 10,369 10,774 11,220 11,776 North Slope Borough 9,478 9,475 9,447 9,373 9,348 9,431 Northwest Arctic Borough 7,563 7,864 8,185 8,516 8,865 9,302

Southeast Region 72,149 72,283 72,052 71,356 70,222 68,824 Haines Borough 2,535 2,598 2,639 2,663 2,646 2,613 Hoonah-Angoon C.A. 2,150 1,988 1,828 1,669 1,518 1,385 Juneau Borough 31,538 32,040 32,381 32,485 32,379 32,080 Ketchikan Gateway Borough 13,536 13,489 13,365 13,144 12,841 12,515 Petersburg Census Area 3,847 3,736 3,615 3,486 3,335 3,167 Prince of Wales-Outer Ketch. C.A. 5,625 5,409 5,182 4,947 4,704 4,470 Sitka Borough 8,913 9,002 9,026 8,974 8,875 8,737 Skagway Municipality 968 1,018 1,064 1,100 1,111 1,126 Wrangell City and Borough 2,375 2,351 2,317 2,272 2,220 2,165 Yakutat Borough 662 652 635 616 593 566

Southwest Region 40,891 42,292 43,913 45,509 47,139 49,184 Aleutians East Borough 3,141 3,183 3,210 3,226 3,229 3,232 Aleutians West Census Area 5,571 5,538 5,485 5,401 5,291 5,147 Bethel Census Area 17,144 18,055 19,059 20,084 21,193 22,557 Bristol Bay Borough 1,002 968 936 897 851 806 Dillingham Census Area 4,874 4,930 5,016 5,085 5,126 5,180 Lake & Peninsula Borough 1,647 1,622 1,601 1,575 1,540 1,503 Wade Hampton Census Area 7,512 7,996 8,606 9,241 9,909 10,759



Table 3.2Alaska Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 54,293 28,049 26,244 0-4 60,043 30,650 29,3935-9 51,168 26,182 24,986 5-9 56,057 28,934 27,12310-14 51,096 26,291 24,805 10-14 52,690 26,996 25,69415-19 52,428 27,329 25,099 15-19 50,543 26,341 24,20220-24 54,717 29,869 24,848 20-24 51,164 27,576 23,58825-29 55,726 29,469 26,257 25-29 57,059 30,002 27,05730-34 47,969 24,998 22,971 30-34 58,562 30,391 28,17135-39 46,084 23,861 22,223 35-39 49,638 25,810 23,82840-44 47,401 24,781 22,620 40-44 46,580 24,154 22,42645-49 55,028 28,555 26,473 45-49 46,840 24,645 22,19550-54 56,611 29,450 27,161 50-54 53,225 27,666 25,55955-59 50,247 26,540 23,707 55-59 53,587 27,770 25,81760-64 36,137 19,337 16,800 60-64 46,754 24,503 22,25165-69 22,323 11,777 10,546 65-69 32,880 17,401 15,47970-74 13,220 6,700 6,520 70-74 19,633 10,155 9,47875-79 8,940 4,172 4,768 75-79 11,143 5,494 5,64980-84 6,017 2,634 3,383 80-84 6,863 3,026 3,83785-89 3,292 1,224 2,068 85-89 3,908 1,531 2,37790+ 1,445 445 1,000 90+ 2,075 657 1,418



0-4 61,468 31,376 30,092 0-4 61,735 31,512 30,2235-9 61,914 31,590 30,324 5-9 63,455 32,377 31,07810-14 57,673 29,798 27,875 10-14 63,621 32,504 31,11715-19 52,087 27,029 25,058 15-19 57,016 29,810 27,20620-24 49,080 26,474 22,606 20-24 50,416 27,038 23,37825-29 53,827 27,884 25,943 25-29 52,035 26,936 25,09930-34 60,168 31,072 29,096 30-34 57,224 29,114 28,11035-39 60,295 31,229 29,066 35-39 62,032 31,981 30,05140-44 50,184 26,131 24,053 40-44 60,821 31,539 29,28245-49 46,066 24,061 22,005 45-49 49,663 26,047 23,61650-54 45,199 23,865 21,334 50-54 44,439 23,308 21,13155-59 50,246 26,030 24,216 55-59 42,376 22,333 20,04360-64 49,947 25,675 24,272 60-64 46,680 23,996 22,68465-69 42,914 22,238 20,676 65-69 45,956 23,356 22,60070-74 29,261 15,214 14,047 70-74 38,466 19,592 18,87475-79 16,715 8,446 8,269 75-79 25,141 12,809 12,33280-84 8,626 4,050 4,576 80-84 13,067 6,332 6,73585-89 4,488 1,777 2,711 85-89 5,680 2,423 3,25790+ 2,604 870 1,734 90+ 3,076 1,052 2,024




Table 3.2, cont.Alaska Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 62,902 32,107 30,795 0-4 66,223 33,803 32,4205-9 63,832 32,567 31,265 5-9 65,095 33,211 31,88410-14 65,244 33,334 31,910 10-14 65,701 33,568 32,13315-19 62,913 32,495 30,418 15-19 64,497 33,312 31,18520-24 55,144 29,698 25,446 20-24 60,851 32,271 28,58025-29 53,622 27,629 25,993 25-29 58,561 30,392 28,16930-34 55,689 28,307 27,382 30-34 57,496 29,119 28,37735-39 59,238 30,111 29,127 35-39 57,831 29,375 28,45640-44 62,620 32,334 30,286 40-44 59,928 30,530 29,39845-49 60,210 31,417 28,793 45-49 62,021 32,231 29,79050-54 47,983 25,274 22,709 50-54 58,361 30,557 27,80455-59 41,592 21,778 19,814 55-59 45,033 23,692 21,34160-64 39,026 20,435 18,591 60-64 38,231 19,889 18,34265-69 42,878 21,796 21,082 65-69 35,637 18,469 17,16870-74 41,339 20,663 20,676 70-74 38,623 19,323 19,30075-79 33,245 16,603 16,642 75-79 35,892 17,604 18,28880-84 19,854 9,752 10,102 80-84 26,410 12,724 13,68685-89 8,670 3,851 4,819 85-89 13,302 6,033 7,26990+ 3,822 1,404 2,418 90+ 5,518 2,162 3,356

Total 879,823 451,555 428,268 Total 915,211 468,265 446,946Median 36.8 36.7 36.9 Median 36.6 36.4 36.9

Population and Components of Population Change, 2010-2035

2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035








* Average annual numbers are rounded to whole numbers.Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Section


Table 3.3Anchorage / Matanuska-Susitna Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 29,016 15,044 13,972 0-4 32,071 16,358 15,7135-9 27,852 14,252 13,600 5-9 30,696 15,907 14,78910-14 27,783 14,225 13,558 10-14 29,385 15,036 14,34915-19 28,326 14,650 13,676 15-19 28,492 14,683 13,80920-24 29,551 15,817 13,734 20-24 28,076 14,808 13,26825-29 30,841 15,920 14,921 25-29 31,220 15,993 15,22730-34 26,508 13,479 13,029 30-34 33,377 17,056 16,32135-39 25,657 12,921 12,736 35-39 27,930 14,162 13,76840-44 25,873 13,203 12,670 40-44 26,363 13,300 13,06345-49 29,626 14,882 14,744 45-49 25,845 13,250 12,59550-54 29,619 15,006 14,613 50-54 28,804 14,459 14,34555-59 25,598 13,173 12,425 55-59 28,329 14,320 14,00960-64 18,327 9,458 8,869 60-64 24,079 12,315 11,76465-69 11,322 5,758 5,564 65-69 16,942 8,675 8,26770-74 6,715 3,240 3,475 70-74 10,098 5,055 5,04375-79 4,700 2,136 2,564 75-79 5,773 2,718 3,05580-84 3,137 1,326 1,811 80-84 3,695 1,583 2,11285-89 1,733 619 1,114 85-89 2,092 786 1,30690+ 774 236 538 90+ 1,114 346 768



0-4 33,441 17,053 16,388 0-4 34,297 17,521 16,7765-9 33,797 17,243 16,554 5-9 35,245 17,985 17,26010-14 32,316 16,736 15,580 10-14 35,447 18,082 17,36515-19 30,070 15,487 14,583 15-19 32,935 16,914 16,02120-24 27,993 14,697 13,296 20-24 29,337 15,292 14,04525-29 29,902 15,071 14,831 25-29 30,004 15,252 14,75230-34 33,921 17,210 16,711 30-34 32,736 16,377 16,35935-39 34,870 17,770 17,100 35-39 35,483 18,031 17,45240-44 28,663 14,558 14,105 40-44 35,607 18,043 17,56445-49 26,331 13,355 12,976 45-49 28,611 14,577 14,03450-54 25,068 12,860 12,208 50-54 25,519 13,024 12,49555-59 27,489 13,769 13,720 55-59 23,788 12,141 11,64760-64 26,684 13,403 13,281 60-64 25,836 13,023 12,81365-69 22,375 11,349 11,026 65-69 24,850 12,409 12,44170-74 15,232 7,679 7,553 70-74 20,224 10,026 10,19875-79 8,733 4,283 4,450 75-79 13,236 6,559 6,67780-84 4,557 2,041 2,516 80-84 6,929 3,194 3,73585-89 2,465 942 1,523 85-89 3,062 1,272 1,79090+ 1,412 457 955 90+ 1,704 584 1,120




Table 3.3, cont.Anchorage / Matanuska-Susitna Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 35,497 18,102 17,395 0-4 37,457 19,098 18,3575-9 36,174 18,451 17,723 5-9 37,423 19,084 18,33710-14 36,952 18,853 18,099 10-14 37,914 19,344 18,57315-19 35,917 18,432 17,485 15-19 37,324 19,154 18,16820-24 31,996 16,898 15,098 20-24 34,780 18,069 16,70825-29 31,475 15,761 15,714 25-29 34,233 17,346 16,88630-34 33,050 16,430 16,620 30-34 34,667 17,217 17,45235-39 34,363 17,132 17,231 35-39 34,762 17,255 17,50340-44 36,234 18,362 17,872 40-44 35,116 17,541 17,57445-49 35,470 18,173 17,297 45-49 36,057 18,348 17,70350-54 27,738 14,179 13,559 50-54 34,451 17,660 16,79155-59 24,177 12,267 11,910 55-59 26,293 13,433 12,86060-64 22,203 11,337 10,866 60-64 22,526 11,385 11,13965-69 24,040 11,875 12,165 65-69 20,570 10,433 10,13670-74 22,531 11,065 11,466 70-74 21,830 10,638 11,19475-79 17,639 8,665 8,974 75-79 19,732 9,534 10,20180-84 10,580 5,050 5,530 80-84 14,165 6,714 7,45085-89 4,670 2,002 2,668 85-89 7,174 3,148 4,02690+ 2,102 738 1,364 90+ 3,020 1,118 1,882



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.4Municipality of Anchorage Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 22,061 11,400 10,661 0-4 24,042 12,251 11,7915-9 20,713 10,592 10,121 5-9 22,571 11,679 10,89210-14 20,537 10,455 10,082 10-14 21,169 10,827 10,34215-19 21,285 11,041 10,244 15-19 21,147 10,783 10,36420-24 24,500 13,124 11,376 20-24 21,602 11,556 10,04625-29 24,944 12,884 12,060 25-29 25,040 12,805 12,23530-34 20,722 10,510 10,212 30-34 26,190 13,398 12,79235-39 19,663 9,891 9,772 35-39 21,078 10,619 10,45940-44 19,587 9,940 9,647 40-44 19,617 9,835 9,78245-49 22,501 11,210 11,291 45-49 19,141 9,791 9,35050-54 22,282 11,138 11,144 50-54 21,479 10,678 10,80155-59 19,182 9,805 9,377 55-59 20,923 10,440 10,48360-64 14,008 7,221 6,787 60-64 17,715 8,990 8,72565-69 8,385 4,186 4,199 65-69 12,792 6,539 6,25370-74 4,989 2,343 2,646 70-74 7,387 3,639 3,74875-79 3,501 1,542 1,959 75-79 4,237 1,932 2,30580-84 2,400 985 1,415 80-84 2,723 1,135 1,58885-89 1,352 473 879 85-89 1,590 578 1,01290+ 625 191 434 90+ 868 266 602



0-4 24,264 12,360 11,904 0-4 24,140 12,342 11,7985-9 24,552 12,529 12,023 5-9 24,773 12,653 12,12010-14 23,020 11,909 11,111 10-14 25,003 12,669 12,33415-19 21,799 11,160 10,639 15-19 23,672 12,284 11,38820-24 21,401 11,277 10,124 20-24 22,034 11,470 10,56425-29 22,267 11,328 10,939 25-29 22,151 11,366 10,78530-34 26,348 13,353 12,995 30-34 23,610 11,760 11,85035-39 26,517 13,485 13,032 35-39 26,669 13,478 13,19140-44 20,996 10,540 10,456 40-44 26,395 13,286 13,10945-49 19,141 9,681 9,460 45-49 20,491 10,401 10,09050-54 18,141 9,274 8,867 50-54 18,105 9,226 8,87955-59 20,086 9,965 10,121 55-59 16,774 8,465 8,30960-64 19,352 9,575 9,777 60-64 18,502 9,178 9,32465-69 16,285 8,186 8,099 65-69 17,840 8,844 8,99670-74 11,402 5,749 5,653 70-74 14,613 7,239 7,37475-79 6,333 3,047 3,286 75-79 9,848 4,818 5,03080-84 3,313 1,443 1,870 80-84 4,991 2,239 2,75285-89 1,804 669 1,135 85-89 2,215 895 1,32090+ 1,076 339 737 90+ 1,260 429 831




Table 3.4, cont.Municipality of Anchorage Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 24,427 12441 11986 0-4 25,390 12929 124615-9 24,664 12583 12081 5-9 24,967 12737 1223010-14 25,232 12877 12355 10-14 25,133 12827 1230615-19 25,621 13079 12542 15-19 25,856 13197 1265920-24 23,914 12719 11195 20-24 25,842 13540 1230225-29 22,853 11479 11374 25-29 24,807 12607 1220030-34 23,579 11698 11881 30-34 24,355 12137 1221835-39 23,964 12012 11952 35-39 23,950 11805 1214540-44 26,545 13336 13209 40-44 23,870 11932 1193845-49 25,819 13195 12624 45-49 25,966 13160 1280650-54 19,410 9829 9581 50-54 24,638 12589 1204955-59 16,694 8441 8253 55-59 17,929 9084 884560-64 15,257 7759 7498 60-64 15,140 7609 753165-69 17,031 8299 8732 65-69 13,946 7035 691170-74 16,069 7768 8301 70-74 15,363 7395 796875-79 12,684 6172 6512 75-79 14,021 6655 736680-84 7,839 3749 4090 80-84 10,159 4780 537985-89 3,352 1413 1939 85-89 5,300 2332 296890+ 1,526 518 1008 90+ 2,169 800 1369



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035



Average AnnualBirths 4768 4827 4802 4850 5043

Average AnnualDeaths 1513 1763 2061 2418 2821

Average Annual NetMigrants 359 294 242 261 243

Average AnnualChange 3614 3358 2983 2693 2465




Table 3.5Matanuska-Susitna Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 6,955 3,644 3,311 0-4 8,029 4,107 3,9225-9 7,139 3,660 3,479 5-9 8,125 4,228 3,89710-14 7,246 3,770 3,476 10-14 8,216 4,209 4,00715-19 7,041 3,609 3,432 15-19 7,345 3,900 3,44520-24 5,051 2,693 2,358 20-24 6,474 3,252 3,22225-29 5,897 3,036 2,861 25-29 6,180 3,188 2,99230-34 5,786 2,969 2,817 30-34 7,187 3,658 3,52935-39 5,994 3,030 2,964 35-39 6,852 3,543 3,30940-44 6,286 3,263 3,023 40-44 6,746 3,465 3,28145-49 7,125 3,672 3,453 45-49 6,704 3,459 3,24550-54 7,337 3,868 3,469 50-54 7,325 3,781 3,54455-59 6,416 3,368 3,048 55-59 7,406 3,880 3,52660-64 4,319 2,237 2,082 60-64 6,364 3,325 3,03965-69 2,937 1,572 1,365 65-69 4,150 2,136 2,01470-74 1,726 897 829 70-74 2,711 1,416 1,29575-79 1,199 594 605 75-79 1,536 786 75080-84 737 341 396 80-84 972 448 52485-89 381 146 235 85-89 502 208 29490+ 149 45 104 90+ 246 80 166



0-4 9,177 4,693 4,484 0-4 10,157 5,179 4,9785-9 9,245 4,714 4,531 5-9 10,472 5,332 5,14010-14 9,296 4,827 4,469 10-14 10,444 5,413 5,03115-19 8,271 4,327 3,944 15-19 9,263 4,630 4,63320-24 6,592 3,420 3,172 20-24 7,303 3,822 3,48125-29 7,635 3,743 3,892 25-29 7,853 3,886 3,96730-34 7,573 3,857 3,716 30-34 9,126 4,617 4,50935-39 8,353 4,285 4,068 35-39 8,814 4,553 4,26140-44 7,667 4,018 3,649 40-44 9,212 4,757 4,45545-49 7,190 3,674 3,516 45-49 8,120 4,176 3,94450-54 6,927 3,586 3,341 50-54 7,414 3,798 3,61655-59 7,403 3,804 3,599 55-59 7,014 3,676 3,33860-64 7,332 3,828 3,504 60-64 7,334 3,845 3,48965-69 6,090 3,163 2,927 65-69 7,010 3,565 3,44570-74 3,830 1,930 1,900 70-74 5,611 2,787 2,82475-79 2,400 1,236 1,164 75-79 3,388 1,741 1,64780-84 1,244 598 646 80-84 1,938 955 98385-89 661 273 388 85-89 847 377 47090+ 336 118 218 90+ 444 155 289




Table 3.5, cont.Matanuska-Susitna Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 11,070 5,661 5,409 0-4 12,067 6,170 5,8975-9 11,510 5,868 5,642 5-9 12,456 6,348 6,10810-14 11,720 5,976 5,744 10-14 12,781 6,515 6,26615-19 10,296 5,353 4,943 15-19 11,468 5,959 5,50920-24 8,082 4,179 3,903 20-24 8,938 4,531 4,40725-29 8,622 4,282 4,340 25-29 9,426 4,740 4,68630-34 9,471 4,732 4,739 30-34 10,312 5,080 5,23235-39 10,399 5,120 5,279 35-39 10,812 5,452 5,36040-44 9,689 5,026 4,663 40-44 11,246 5,610 5,63645-49 9,651 4,978 4,673 45-49 10,091 5,191 4,90050-54 8,328 4,350 3,978 50-54 9,813 5,072 4,74155-59 7,483 3,826 3,657 55-59 8,364 4,349 4,01560-64 6,946 3,578 3,368 60-64 7,386 3,777 3,60965-69 7,009 3,576 3,433 65-69 6,624 3,398 3,22670-74 6,462 3,297 3,165 70-74 6,467 3,241 3,22675-79 4,955 2,493 2,462 75-79 5,711 2,878 2,83380-84 2,741 1,301 1,440 80-84 4,006 1,934 2,07285-89 1,318 589 729 85-89 1,874 816 1,05890+ 576 220 356 90+ 851 339 512



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035




Average AnnualDeaths 475 596 740 908 1,097






Table 3.6Gulf Coast Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 5,265 2,623 2,642 0-4 5,671 2,897 2,7745-9 5,065 2,609 2,456 5-9 5,491 2,721 2,77010-14 5,593 2,840 2,753 10-14 5,240 2,691 2,54915-19 5,666 3,041 2,625 15-19 5,141 2,703 2,43820-24 4,606 2,622 1,984 20-24 4,721 2,541 2,18025-29 4,935 2,673 2,262 25-29 4,959 2,721 2,23830-34 4,566 2,412 2,154 30-34 5,322 2,842 2,48035-39 4,744 2,497 2,247 35-39 4,812 2,550 2,26240-44 5,170 2,679 2,491 40-44 4,868 2,570 2,29845-49 6,357 3,346 3,011 45-49 5,160 2,696 2,46450-54 7,235 3,795 3,440 50-54 6,236 3,275 2,96155-59 6,817 3,618 3,199 55-59 7,032 3,686 3,34660-64 5,000 2,701 2,299 60-64 6,560 3,496 3,06465-69 3,361 1,859 1,502 65-69 4,697 2,537 2,16070-74 1,923 1,020 903 70-74 2,988 1,621 1,36775-79 1,289 659 630 75-79 1,610 842 76880-84 790 354 436 80-84 1,003 487 51685-89 470 195 275 85-89 525 210 31590+ 199 60 139 90+ 302 104 198



0-4 5,817 2,970 2,847 0-4 5,746 2,913 2,8335-9 5,907 3,002 2,905 5-9 6,060 3,061 2,99910-14 5,677 2,807 2,870 10-14 6,095 3,035 3,06015-19 4,745 2,535 2,210 15-19 5,164 2,697 2,46720-24 4,146 2,172 1,974 20-24 3,737 1,948 1,78925-29 5,094 2,646 2,448 25-29 4,536 2,359 2,17730-34 5,372 2,906 2,466 30-34 5,535 2,954 2,58135-39 5,582 2,988 2,594 35-39 5,643 3,003 2,64040-44 4,950 2,629 2,321 40-44 5,720 3,037 2,68345-49 4,870 2,595 2,275 45-49 4,956 2,636 2,32050-54 5,068 2,644 2,424 50-54 4,789 2,481 2,30855-59 6,065 3,185 2,880 55-59 4,923 2,651 2,27260-64 6,779 3,568 3,211 60-64 5,846 3,096 2,75065-69 6,181 3,288 2,893 65-69 6,393 3,331 3,06270-74 4,216 2,237 1,979 70-74 5,577 2,907 2,67075-79 2,539 1,360 1,179 75-79 3,616 1,949 1,66780-84 1,262 630 632 80-84 2,004 1,023 98185-89 666 292 374 85-89 842 384 45890+ 372 129 243 90+ 458 163 295




Table 3.6, cont.Gulf Coast Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 5,615 2,865 2,750 0-4 5,707 2,911 2,7965-9 5,995 3,045 2,950 5-9 5,868 2,979 2,88910-14 6,253 3,171 3,082 10-14 6,193 3,138 3,05515-19 5,587 2,929 2,658 15-19 5,750 3,013 2,73720-24 4,106 2,080 2,026 20-24 4,546 2,374 2,17225-29 4,145 2,123 2,022 25-29 4,526 2,214 2,31230-34 4,991 2,491 2,500 30-34 4,590 2,325 2,26535-39 5,823 3,000 2,823 35-39 5,289 2,657 2,63240-44 5,794 3,146 2,648 40-44 5,986 3,092 2,89445-49 5,722 3,097 2,625 45-49 5,799 3,176 2,62350-54 4,873 2,613 2,260 50-54 5,634 3,045 2,58955-59 4,650 2,483 2,167 55-59 4,742 2,550 2,19260-64 4,742 2,506 2,236 60-64 4,481 2,422 2,05965-69 5,515 2,918 2,597 65-69 4,469 2,369 2,10070-74 5,782 2,992 2,790 70-74 4,990 2,600 2,39075-79 4,819 2,484 2,335 75-79 5,017 2,560 2,45780-84 2,878 1,454 1,424 80-84 3,854 1,921 1,93385-89 1,340 634 706 85-89 1,942 906 1,03690+ 577 228 349 90+ 857 360 497



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.7Kenai Peninsula Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 3,483 1,722 1,761 0-4 3,940 2,014 1,9265-9 3,453 1,783 1,670 5-9 3,726 1,836 1,89010-14 3,782 1,907 1,875 10-14 3,691 1,895 1,79615-19 3,981 2,135 1,846 15-19 3,565 1,853 1,71220-24 3,084 1,742 1,342 20-24 3,360 1,800 1,56025-29 3,264 1,757 1,507 25-29 3,386 1,835 1,55130-34 3,062 1,631 1,431 30-34 3,614 1,920 1,69435-39 3,330 1,764 1,566 35-39 3,361 1,792 1,56940-44 3,563 1,848 1,715 40-44 3,562 1,898 1,66445-49 4,409 2,300 2,109 45-49 3,646 1,897 1,74950-54 5,172 2,676 2,496 50-54 4,418 2,294 2,12455-59 5,085 2,661 2,424 55-59 5,131 2,648 2,48360-64 3,731 2,000 1,731 60-64 4,998 2,623 2,37565-69 2,599 1,449 1,150 65-69 3,552 1,908 1,64470-74 1,487 798 689 70-74 2,340 1,282 1,05875-79 1,047 534 513 75-79 1,269 671 59880-84 644 291 353 80-84 834 402 43285-89 383 162 221 85-89 433 175 25890+ 153 42 111 90+ 247 85 162



0-4 4,156 2,123 2,033 0-4 4,182 2,122 2,0605-9 4,180 2,128 2,052 5-9 4,396 2,219 2,17710-14 3,967 1,948 2,019 10-14 4,415 2,174 2,24115-19 3,435 1,826 1,609 15-19 3,680 1,899 1,78120-24 2,892 1,489 1,403 20-24 2,722 1,394 1,32825-29 3,665 1,890 1,775 25-29 3,204 1,656 1,54830-34 3,749 2,005 1,744 30-34 4,042 2,129 1,91335-39 3,919 2,084 1,835 35-39 4,057 2,150 1,90740-44 3,598 1,929 1,669 40-44 4,154 2,212 1,94245-49 3,644 1,948 1,696 45-49 3,678 1,956 1,72250-54 3,667 1,900 1,767 50-54 3,666 1,881 1,78555-59 4,393 2,276 2,117 55-59 3,655 1,942 1,71360-64 5,046 2,613 2,433 60-64 4,332 2,262 2,07065-69 4,754 2,496 2,258 65-69 4,802 2,469 2,33370-74 3,216 1,699 1,517 70-74 4,319 2,242 2,07775-79 2,013 1,088 925 75-79 2,783 1,509 1,27480-84 1,013 510 503 80-84 1,607 827 78085-89 559 243 316 85-89 681 310 37190+ 308 108 200 90+ 386 138 248




Table 3.7, cont.Kenai Peninsula Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 4,133 2,110 2,023 0-4 4,233 2,160 2,0735-9 4,420 2,248 2,172 5-9 4,366 2,220 2,14610-14 4,628 2,346 2,282 10-14 4,647 2,354 2,29315-19 4,118 2,151 1,967 15-19 4,322 2,256 2,06620-24 2,916 1,451 1,465 20-24 3,338 1,729 1,60925-29 3,036 1,534 1,502 25-29 3,228 1,547 1,68130-34 3,580 1,757 1,823 30-34 3,403 1,705 1,69835-39 4,352 2,228 2,124 35-39 3,891 1,923 1,96840-44 4,293 2,306 1,987 40-44 4,583 2,360 2,22345-49 4,224 2,265 1,959 45-49 4,356 2,347 2,00950-54 3,693 1,979 1,714 50-54 4,231 2,258 1,97355-59 3,648 1,941 1,707 55-59 3,678 1,969 1,70960-64 3,614 1,890 1,724 60-64 3,608 1,940 1,66865-69 4,127 2,159 1,968 65-69 3,445 1,813 1,63270-74 4,371 2,233 2,138 70-74 3,760 1,939 1,82175-79 3,756 1,913 1,843 75-79 3,813 1,921 1,89280-84 2,233 1,121 1,112 80-84 3,024 1,487 1,53785-89 1,080 515 565 85-89 1,514 701 81390+ 478 190 288 90+ 700 296 404



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.8Kodiak Island Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,157 590 567 0-4 1,113 575 5385-9 983 506 477 5-9 1,137 575 56210-14 1,128 604 524 10-14 930 484 44615-19 1,009 544 465 15-19 986 550 43620-24 967 570 397 20-24 836 452 38425-29 1,073 579 494 25-29 1,004 571 43330-34 959 491 468 30-34 1,097 586 51135-39 858 448 410 35-39 906 459 44740-44 940 476 464 40-44 766 390 37645-49 1,094 582 512 45-49 888 455 43350-54 1,046 576 470 50-54 1,024 544 48055-59 879 473 406 55-59 973 532 44160-64 643 347 296 60-64 782 424 35865-69 405 202 203 65-69 578 310 26870-74 240 123 117 70-74 342 162 18075-79 126 59 67 75-79 188 94 9480-84 76 31 45 80-84 89 40 4985-89 45 19 26 85-89 48 17 3190+ 27 12 15 90+ 31 12 19



0-4 1,064 550 514 0-4 1,004 516 4885-9 1,102 565 537 5-9 1,058 548 51010-14 1,090 556 534 10-14 1,060 548 51215-19 781 424 357 15-19 952 509 44320-24 810 453 357 20-24 625 348 27725-29 883 459 424 25-29 866 454 41230-34 1,037 585 452 30-34 924 516 40835-39 1,049 558 491 35-39 994 517 47740-44 819 403 416 40-44 962 478 48445-49 722 373 349 45-49 777 403 37450-54 828 423 405 50-54 666 336 33055-59 956 504 452 55-59 766 416 35060-64 876 482 394 60-64 861 476 38565-69 713 383 330 65-69 803 419 38470-74 501 260 241 70-74 625 318 30775-79 278 128 150 75-79 417 196 22180-84 138 67 71 80-84 210 105 10585-89 56 23 33 85-89 89 37 5290+ 36 11 25 90+ 40 14 26




Table 3.8, cont.Kodiak Island Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 962 497 465 0-4 972 502 4705-9 1,004 515 489 5-9 968 496 47210-14 1,021 529 492 10-14 973 504 46915-19 929 497 432 15-19 896 481 41520-24 790 415 375 20-24 787 421 36625-29 691 358 333 25-29 865 437 42830-34 916 487 429 30-34 740 380 36035-39 891 456 435 35-39 889 471 41840-44 913 508 405 40-44 823 411 41245-49 923 489 434 45-49 880 499 38150-54 724 361 363 50-54 871 462 40955-59 610 311 299 55-59 670 330 34060-64 678 345 333 60-64 529 272 25765-69 791 416 375 65-69 619 312 30770-74 707 377 330 70-74 699 358 34175-79 526 269 257 75-79 603 316 28780-84 322 159 163 80-84 411 204 20785-89 139 56 83 85-89 214 98 11690+ 56 20 36 90+ 87 31 56



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange 13 4 -8 -21 -19

Average Annual PercentChange 0.09% 0.03% -0.06% -0.16% -0.14%



Table 3.9Valdez-Cordova Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 625 311 314 0-4 618 308 3105-9 629 320 309 5-9 628 310 31810-14 683 329 354 10-14 619 312 30715-19 676 362 314 15-19 590 300 29020-24 555 310 245 20-24 525 289 23625-29 598 337 261 25-29 569 315 25430-34 545 290 255 30-34 611 336 27535-39 556 285 271 35-39 545 299 24640-44 667 355 312 40-44 540 282 25845-49 854 464 390 45-49 626 344 28250-54 1,017 543 474 50-54 794 437 35755-59 853 484 369 55-59 928 506 42260-64 626 354 272 60-64 780 449 33165-69 357 208 149 65-69 567 319 24870-74 196 99 97 70-74 306 177 12975-79 116 66 50 75-79 153 77 7680-84 70 32 38 80-84 80 45 3585-89 42 14 28 85-89 44 18 2690+ 19 6 13 90+ 24 7 17



0-4 597 297 300 0-4 560 275 2855-9 625 309 316 5-9 606 294 31210-14 620 303 317 10-14 620 313 30715-19 529 285 244 15-19 532 289 24320-24 444 230 214 20-24 390 206 18425-29 546 297 249 25-29 466 249 21730-34 586 316 270 30-34 569 309 26035-39 614 346 268 35-39 592 336 25640-44 533 297 236 40-44 604 347 25745-49 504 274 230 45-49 501 277 22450-54 573 321 252 50-54 457 264 19355-59 716 405 311 55-59 502 293 20960-64 857 473 384 60-64 653 358 29565-69 714 409 305 65-69 788 443 34570-74 499 278 221 70-74 633 347 28675-79 248 144 104 75-79 416 244 17280-84 111 53 58 80-84 187 91 9685-89 51 26 25 85-89 72 37 3590+ 28 10 18 90+ 32 11 21




Table 3.9, cont.Valdez-Cordova Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 520 258 262 0-4 502 249 2535-9 571 282 289 5-9 534 263 27110-14 604 296 308 10-14 573 280 29315-19 540 281 259 15-19 532 276 25620-24 400 214 186 20-24 421 224 19725-29 418 231 187 25-29 433 230 20330-34 495 247 248 30-34 447 240 20735-39 580 316 264 35-39 509 263 24640-44 588 332 256 40-44 580 321 25945-49 575 343 232 45-49 563 330 23350-54 456 273 183 50-54 532 325 20755-59 392 231 161 55-59 394 251 14360-64 450 271 179 60-64 344 210 13465-69 597 343 254 65-69 405 244 16170-74 704 382 322 70-74 531 303 22875-79 537 302 235 75-79 601 323 27880-84 323 174 149 80-84 419 230 18985-89 121 63 58 85-89 214 107 10790+ 43 18 25 90+ 70 33 37



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange -27 -30 -43 -53 -62

Average Annual PercentChange -0.28% -0.32% -0.46% -0.59% -0.71%



Table 3.10Interior Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 9,002 4,667 4,335 0-4 10,030 5,143 4,8875-9 8,033 4,129 3,904 5-9 9,217 4,790 4,42710-14 7,422 3,853 3,569 10-14 8,113 4,201 3,91215-19 7,871 4,114 3,757 15-19 7,374 3,885 3,48920-24 10,938 6,243 4,695 20-24 9,025 5,278 3,74725-29 9,958 5,520 4,438 25-29 11,136 6,040 5,09630-34 8,155 4,346 3,809 30-34 9,934 5,256 4,67835-39 7,362 3,876 3,486 35-39 8,306 4,406 3,90040-44 6,912 3,630 3,282 40-44 7,225 3,800 3,42545-49 7,818 4,035 3,783 45-49 6,815 3,618 3,19750-54 8,246 4,260 3,986 50-54 7,500 3,907 3,59355-59 7,547 4,044 3,503 55-59 7,815 4,038 3,77760-64 5,457 3,025 2,432 60-64 7,021 3,756 3,26565-69 3,221 1,785 1,436 65-69 4,978 2,748 2,23070-74 1,888 994 894 70-74 2,821 1,537 1,28475-79 1,199 588 611 75-79 1,603 820 78380-84 869 407 462 80-84 911 430 48185-89 417 154 263 85-89 555 237 31890+ 181 56 125 90+ 268 82 186



0-4 9,971 5,115 4,856 0-4 9,790 5,014 4,7765-9 10,237 5,258 4,979 5-9 10,175 5,228 4,94710-14 9,279 4,851 4,428 10-14 10,299 5,330 4,96915-19 8,064 4,234 3,830 15-19 9,242 5,337 3,90520-24 8,599 5,110 3,489 20-24 9,285 5,359 3,92625-29 9,275 5,117 4,158 25-29 8,883 4,733 4,15030-34 11,152 5,793 5,359 30-34 9,311 4,747 4,56435-39 10,062 5,300 4,762 35-39 11,296 5,888 5,40840-44 8,147 4,318 3,829 40-44 9,874 5,215 4,65945-49 7,117 3,783 3,334 45-49 8,028 4,318 3,71050-54 6,497 3,492 3,005 50-54 6,788 3,621 3,16755-59 7,061 3,682 3,379 55-59 6,070 3,213 2,85760-64 7,254 3,738 3,516 60-64 6,516 3,350 3,16665-69 6,446 3,425 3,021 65-69 6,669 3,466 3,20370-74 4,415 2,399 2,016 70-74 5,759 3,058 2,70175-79 2,409 1,281 1,128 75-79 3,803 2,040 1,76380-84 1,234 609 625 80-84 1,874 957 91785-89 588 253 335 85-89 802 354 44890+ 362 126 236 90+ 417 136 281




Table 3.10, cont.Interior Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 9,954 5,105 4,849 0-4 10,565 5,420 5,1455-9 9,994 5,136 4,858 5-9 10,159 5,223 4,93610-14 10,231 5,287 4,944 10-14 10,049 5,198 4,85115-19 10,265 5,365 4,900 15-19 10,188 5,329 4,85920-24 10,471 6,132 4,339 20-24 11,439 6,559 4,88025-29 9,607 5,330 4,277 25-29 10,825 6,015 4,81030-34 8,922 4,750 4,172 30-34 9,685 5,140 4,54535-39 9,454 4,960 4,494 35-39 9,065 4,806 4,25940-44 11,112 5,745 5,367 40-44 9,286 4,876 4,41045-49 9,738 5,168 4,570 45-49 10,977 5,726 5,25150-54 7,679 4,163 3,516 50-54 9,356 5,023 4,33355-59 6,338 3,428 2,910 55-59 7,209 3,928 3,28160-64 5,544 2,993 2,551 60-64 5,792 3,139 2,65365-69 5,972 3,083 2,889 65-69 5,048 2,712 2,33670-74 5,980 3,004 2,976 70-74 5,359 2,724 2,63575-79 4,991 2,555 2,436 75-79 5,210 2,564 2,64680-84 2,997 1,549 1,448 80-84 3,966 1,970 1,99685-89 1,231 586 645 85-89 1,999 962 1,03790+ 534 207 327 90+ 783 326 457



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035




Average AnnualDeaths 575 676 795 935 1,089






Table 3.11Denali Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 114 64 50 0-4 102 50 525-9 114 59 55 5-9 115 66 4910-14 118 54 64 10-14 116 62 5415-19 97 52 45 15-19 97 42 5520-24 49 28 21 20-24 68 38 3025-29 96 40 56 25-29 62 30 3230-34 136 66 70 30-34 109 46 6335-39 138 70 68 35-39 145 71 7440-44 131 73 58 40-44 135 70 6545-49 189 109 80 45-49 117 66 5150-54 191 110 81 50-54 172 101 7155-59 198 111 87 55-59 166 96 7060-64 118 81 37 60-64 177 97 8065-69 73 44 29 65-69 104 71 3370-74 37 22 15 70-74 63 37 2675-79 19 14 5 75-79 31 18 1380-84 5 3 2 80-84 13 10 385-89 2 2 0 85-89 3 2 190+ 1 0 1 90+ 1 0 1

Total 1,826 1,002 824 Total 1,796 973 823Median Age 41.9 44.7 38.8 Median Age 43.1 45.9 40.2


0-4 94 46 48 0-4 94 46 485-9 104 52 52 5-9 96 48 4810-14 117 69 48 10-14 107 61 4615-19 96 51 45 15-19 97 51 4620-24 67 28 39 20-24 67 26 4125-29 81 40 41 25-29 82 40 4230-34 76 37 39 30-34 96 45 5135-39 119 51 68 35-39 84 35 4940-44 141 70 71 40-44 116 55 6145-49 122 63 59 45-49 130 67 6350-54 102 59 43 50-54 110 62 4855-59 148 88 60 55-59 82 48 3460-64 147 84 63 60-64 131 72 5965-69 161 87 74 65-69 133 68 6570-74 91 61 30 70-74 144 94 5075-79 53 31 22 75-79 78 44 3480-84 23 13 10 80-84 41 25 1685-89 8 6 2 85-89 14 9 590+ 2 1 1 90+ 4 1 3

Total 1,752 937 815 Total 1,706 897 809Median Age 44.3 46.9 41.9 Median Age 45.5 48.1 42.7



Table 3.11, cont.Denali Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 93 45 48 0-4 90 44 465-9 96 48 48 5-9 95 47 4810-14 100 52 48 10-14 100 52 4815-19 89 46 43 15-19 83 43 4020-24 70 45 25 20-24 64 34 3025-29 83 40 43 25-29 87 49 3830-34 98 39 59 30-34 100 49 5135-39 104 52 52 35-39 109 44 6540-44 83 42 41 40-44 106 54 5245-49 106 46 60 45-49 75 38 3750-54 117 59 58 50-54 93 41 5255-59 88 46 42 55-59 98 49 4960-64 67 39 28 60-64 74 37 3765-69 119 68 51 65-69 58 32 2670-74 119 65 54 70-74 106 60 4675-79 126 66 60 75-79 104 56 4880-84 61 40 21 80-84 100 51 4985-89 27 15 12 85-89 40 25 1590+ 8 4 4 90+ 14 7 7



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.12Fairbanks North Star Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 7,955 4,131 3,824 0-4 8,866 4,545 4,3215-9 7,015 3,582 3,433 5-9 8,158 4,239 3,91910-14 6,324 3,287 3,037 10-14 7,081 3,618 3,46315-19 6,806 3,544 3,262 15-19 6,416 3,366 3,05020-24 10,140 5,815 4,325 20-24 8,159 4,794 3,36525-29 9,069 5,039 4,030 25-29 10,318 5,602 4,71630-34 7,242 3,826 3,416 30-34 9,007 4,754 4,25335-39 6,520 3,432 3,088 35-39 7,374 3,861 3,51340-44 6,002 3,119 2,883 40-44 6,395 3,348 3,04745-49 6,653 3,378 3,275 45-49 5,946 3,111 2,83550-54 6,948 3,551 3,397 50-54 6,394 3,265 3,12955-59 6,328 3,335 2,993 55-59 6,601 3,369 3,23260-64 4,595 2,512 2,083 60-64 5,897 3,093 2,80465-69 2,648 1,427 1,221 65-69 4,214 2,292 1,92270-74 1,539 797 742 70-74 2,324 1,228 1,09675-79 970 467 503 75-79 1,324 665 65980-84 723 331 392 80-84 748 347 40185-89 363 131 232 85-89 469 195 27490+ 160 48 112 90+ 237 72 165



0-4 8,837 4,532 4,305 0-4 8,732 4,470 4,2625-9 9,051 4,640 4,411 5-9 9,014 4,605 4,40910-14 8,203 4,261 3,942 10-14 9,088 4,642 4,44615-19 7,177 3,697 3,480 15-19 8,308 4,757 3,55120-24 7,839 4,676 3,163 20-24 8,590 4,944 3,64625-29 8,377 4,618 3,759 25-29 8,086 4,290 3,79630-34 10,290 5,330 4,960 30-34 8,356 4,230 4,12635-39 9,109 4,767 4,342 35-39 10,403 5,381 5,02240-44 7,221 3,760 3,461 40-44 8,923 4,628 4,29545-49 6,321 3,330 2,991 45-49 7,132 3,789 3,34350-54 5,675 2,992 2,683 50-54 6,031 3,157 2,87455-59 6,030 3,074 2,956 55-59 5,310 2,744 2,56660-64 6,134 3,109 3,025 60-64 5,567 2,821 2,74665-69 5,433 2,828 2,605 65-69 5,656 2,880 2,77670-74 3,743 2,001 1,742 70-74 4,861 2,537 2,32475-79 2,005 1,032 973 75-79 3,247 1,699 1,54880-84 1,028 499 529 80-84 1,574 789 78585-89 488 205 283 85-89 675 293 38290+ 314 107 207 90+ 357 116 241




Table 3.12, cont.Fairbanks North Star Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 8,970 4,598 4,372 0-4 9,592 4,917 4,6755-9 8,906 4,565 4,341 5-9 9,143 4,688 4,45510-14 9,039 4,632 4,407 10-14 8,926 4,576 4,35015-19 9,181 4,737 4,444 15-19 9,119 4,706 4,41320-24 9,726 5,665 4,061 20-24 10,542 6,009 4,53325-29 8,867 4,850 4,017 25-29 10,027 5,516 4,51130-34 8,062 4,258 3,804 30-34 8,876 4,616 4,26035-39 8,461 4,389 4,072 35-39 8,160 4,270 3,89040-44 10,214 5,227 4,987 40-44 8,280 4,281 3,99945-49 8,814 4,612 4,202 45-49 10,100 5,196 4,90450-54 6,821 3,599 3,222 50-54 8,470 4,462 4,00855-59 5,641 2,999 2,642 55-59 6,407 3,385 3,02260-64 4,854 2,547 2,307 60-64 5,160 2,735 2,42565-69 5,118 2,566 2,552 65-69 4,437 2,313 2,12470-74 5,078 2,504 2,574 70-74 4,598 2,264 2,33475-79 4,239 2,121 2,118 75-79 4,451 2,150 2,30180-84 2,576 1,309 1,267 80-84 3,388 1,646 1,74285-89 1,044 479 565 85-89 1,730 816 91490+ 456 173 283 90+ 670 270 400



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.13Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 488 237 251 0-4 656 343 3135-9 531 305 226 5-9 542 273 26910-14 511 274 237 10-14 577 356 22115-19 512 268 244 15-19 461 268 19320-24 379 193 186 20-24 437 249 18825-29 435 247 188 25-29 417 223 19430-34 462 268 194 30-34 482 275 20735-39 431 236 195 35-39 509 310 19940-44 485 285 200 40-44 458 263 19545-49 569 336 233 45-49 494 308 18650-54 607 329 278 50-54 565 351 21455-59 564 331 233 55-59 595 330 26560-64 416 255 161 60-64 536 324 21265-69 275 174 101 65-69 375 232 14370-74 188 100 88 70-74 244 155 8975-79 101 53 48 75-79 154 81 7380-84 63 29 34 80-84 76 39 3785-89 27 9 18 85-89 39 17 2290+ 11 2 9 90+ 18 4 14



0-4 642 336 306 0-4 590 312 2785-9 711 380 331 5-9 698 394 30410-14 588 326 262 10-14 759 444 31515-19 520 350 170 15-19 524 384 14020-24 380 246 134 20-24 428 288 14025-29 476 279 197 25-29 419 246 17330-34 463 250 213 30-34 526 296 23035-39 530 319 211 35-39 514 316 19840-44 538 339 199 40-44 559 367 19245-49 468 288 180 45-49 546 356 19050-54 491 324 167 50-54 465 312 15355-59 552 351 201 55-59 480 318 16260-64 564 324 240 60-64 521 298 22365-69 488 296 192 65-69 515 309 20670-74 336 208 128 70-74 438 267 17175-79 202 128 74 75-79 282 181 10180-84 119 61 58 80-84 156 83 7385-89 48 23 25 85-89 77 34 4390+ 25 7 18 90+ 32 11 21




Table 3.13, cont.Southeast Fairbanks Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 551 291 260 0-4 568 300 2685-9 645 349 296 5-9 605 329 27610-14 746 430 316 10-14 693 405 28815-19 700 430 270 15-19 683 424 25920-24 428 288 140 20-24 593 395 19825-29 469 354 115 25-29 470 323 14730-34 470 310 160 30-34 522 390 13235-39 578 356 222 35-39 523 360 16340-44 543 327 216 40-44 606 386 22045-49 566 375 191 45-49 550 354 19650-54 543 384 159 50-54 561 396 16555-59 452 308 144 55-59 529 386 14360-64 451 320 131 60-64 424 303 12165-69 474 316 158 65-69 405 293 11270-74 464 267 197 70-74 426 285 14175-79 371 224 147 75-79 395 225 17080-84 220 133 87 80-84 294 174 12085-89 99 59 40 85-89 144 83 6190+ 47 19 28 90+ 65 32 33



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.14Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 445 235 210 0-4 406 205 2015-9 373 183 190 5-9 402 212 19010-14 469 238 231 10-14 339 165 17415-19 456 250 206 15-19 400 209 19120-24 370 207 163 20-24 361 197 16425-29 358 194 164 25-29 339 185 15430-34 315 186 129 30-34 336 181 15535-39 273 138 135 35-39 278 164 11440-44 294 153 141 40-44 237 119 11845-49 407 212 195 45-49 258 133 12550-54 500 270 230 50-54 369 190 17955-59 457 267 190 55-59 453 243 21060-64 328 177 151 60-64 411 242 16965-69 225 140 85 65-69 285 153 13270-74 124 75 49 70-74 190 117 7375-79 109 54 55 75-79 94 56 3880-84 78 44 34 80-84 74 34 4085-89 25 12 13 85-89 44 23 2190+ 9 6 3 90+ 12 6 6



0-4 398 201 197 0-4 374 186 1885-9 371 186 185 5-9 367 181 18610-14 371 195 176 10-14 345 183 16215-19 271 136 135 15-19 313 145 16820-24 313 160 153 20-24 200 101 9925-29 341 180 161 25-29 296 157 13930-34 323 176 147 30-34 333 176 15735-39 304 163 141 35-39 295 156 13940-44 247 149 98 40-44 276 165 11145-49 206 102 104 45-49 220 106 11450-54 229 117 112 50-54 182 90 9255-59 331 169 162 55-59 198 103 9560-64 409 221 188 60-64 297 159 13865-69 364 214 150 65-69 365 209 15670-74 245 129 116 70-74 316 160 15675-79 149 90 59 75-79 196 116 8080-84 64 36 28 80-84 103 60 4385-89 44 19 25 85-89 36 18 1890+ 21 11 10 90+ 24 8 16




Table 3.14, cont.Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 340 171 169 0-4 315 159 1565-9 347 174 173 5-9 316 159 15710-14 346 173 173 10-14 330 165 16515-19 295 152 143 15-19 303 156 14720-24 247 134 113 20-24 240 121 11925-29 188 86 102 25-29 241 127 11430-34 292 143 149 30-34 187 85 10235-39 311 163 148 35-39 273 132 14140-44 272 149 123 40-44 294 155 13945-49 252 135 117 45-49 252 138 11450-54 198 121 77 50-54 232 124 10855-59 157 75 82 55-59 175 108 6760-64 172 87 85 60-64 134 64 7065-69 261 133 128 65-69 148 74 7470-74 319 168 151 70-74 229 115 11475-79 255 144 111 75-79 260 133 12780-84 140 67 73 80-84 184 99 8585-89 61 33 28 85-89 85 38 4790+ 23 11 12 90+ 34 17 17



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.15Northern Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 2,664 1,390 1,274 0-4 3,022 1,535 1,4875-9 2,220 1,117 1,103 5-9 2,532 1,318 1,21410-14 2,123 1,097 1,026 10-14 2,117 1,061 1,05615-19 2,215 1,151 1,064 15-19 1,933 1,026 90720-24 2,203 1,223 980 20-24 1,966 1,051 91525-29 2,029 1,117 912 25-29 2,175 1,213 96230-34 1,715 1,002 713 30-34 1,992 1,103 88935-39 1,506 904 602 35-39 1,595 942 65340-44 1,630 999 631 40-44 1,372 819 55345-49 1,947 1,182 765 45-49 1,620 1,024 59650-54 2,060 1,295 765 50-54 1,954 1,241 71355-59 1,738 1,148 590 55-59 1,834 1,166 66860-64 1,083 689 394 60-64 1,371 863 50865-69 588 346 242 65-69 797 467 33070-74 350 200 150 70-74 467 262 20575-79 252 102 150 75-79 254 138 11680-84 181 72 109 80-84 166 59 10785-89 71 32 39 85-89 103 36 6790+ 22 6 16 90+ 33 11 22



0-4 2,980 1,513 1,467 0-4 2,883 1,456 1,4275-9 2,907 1,473 1,434 5-9 2,873 1,445 1,42810-14 2,433 1,265 1,168 10-14 2,824 1,470 1,35415-19 1,933 994 939 15-19 2,264 1,167 1,09720-24 1,698 931 767 20-24 1,706 971 73525-29 1,965 1,055 910 25-29 1,712 931 78130-34 2,154 1,210 944 30-34 1,964 1,089 87535-39 1,872 1,044 828 35-39 2,046 1,115 93140-44 1,467 861 606 40-44 1,746 1,040 70645-49 1,377 855 522 45-49 1,482 947 53550-54 1,645 1,093 552 50-54 1,417 960 45755-59 1,735 1,115 620 55-59 1,444 903 54160-64 1,463 880 583 60-64 1,372 772 60065-69 1,064 625 439 65-69 1,152 655 49770-74 650 366 284 70-74 891 480 41175-79 349 186 163 75-79 504 264 24080-84 166 85 81 80-84 237 124 11385-89 95 29 66 85-89 93 32 6190+ 48 15 33 90+ 53 19 34




Table 3.15, cont.Northern Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 2,942 1,493 1,449 0-4 3,226 1,637 1,5895-9 2,786 1,409 1,377 5-9 2,856 1,444 1,41210-14 2,800 1,414 1,386 10-14 2,723 1,374 1,34915-19 2,680 1,383 1,297 15-19 2,668 1,377 1,29120-24 2,037 1,117 920 20-24 2,457 1,295 1,16225-29 1,739 933 806 25-29 2,085 1,152 93330-34 1,722 964 758 30-34 1,765 960 80535-39 1,880 1,025 855 35-39 1,643 931 71240-44 1,929 1,085 844 40-44 1,785 966 81945-49 1,765 1,011 754 45-49 1,961 1,140 82150-54 1,533 990 543 50-54 1,825 1,105 72055-59 1,232 830 402 55-59 1,348 887 46160-64 1,096 703 393 60-64 895 561 33465-69 1,069 602 467 65-69 818 485 33370-74 972 525 447 70-74 904 493 41175-79 705 388 317 75-79 776 404 37280-84 351 179 172 80-84 496 258 23885-89 140 65 75 85-89 206 98 10890+ 55 19 36 90+ 72 28 44



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.16Nome Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,024 538 486 0-4 1,198 608 5905-9 904 453 451 5-9 984 516 46810-14 863 458 405 10-14 874 436 43815-19 868 450 418 15-19 801 437 36420-24 735 388 347 20-24 741 380 36125-29 721 390 331 25-29 701 360 34130-34 630 329 301 30-34 707 379 32835-39 518 271 247 35-39 593 307 28640-44 545 301 244 40-44 479 251 22845-49 615 341 274 45-49 503 277 22650-54 626 345 281 50-54 570 316 25455-59 538 290 248 55-59 570 313 25760-64 363 222 141 60-64 484 262 22265-69 250 141 109 65-69 315 193 12270-74 142 81 61 70-74 212 118 9475-79 105 44 61 75-79 107 59 4880-84 73 31 42 80-84 70 26 4485-89 26 17 9 85-89 42 16 2690+ 10 2 8 90+ 13 6 7



0-4 1,208 613 595 0-4 1,202 607 5955-9 1,163 590 573 5-9 1,177 592 58510-14 954 500 454 10-14 1,140 598 54215-19 813 416 397 15-19 896 440 45620-24 671 363 308 20-24 685 372 31325-29 716 357 359 25-29 652 326 32630-34 691 352 339 30-34 716 357 35935-39 670 358 312 35-39 657 349 30840-44 555 288 267 40-44 632 323 30945-49 440 230 210 45-49 517 268 24950-54 463 255 208 50-54 404 220 18455-59 517 285 232 55-59 416 235 18160-64 516 285 231 60-64 467 258 20965-69 428 230 198 65-69 457 240 21770-74 268 162 106 70-74 370 217 15375-79 164 88 76 75-79 211 111 10080-84 71 37 34 80-84 113 62 5185-89 41 13 28 85-89 40 16 2490+ 20 7 13 90+ 22 8 14




Table 3.16, cont.Nome Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,244 632 612 0-4 1,366 694 6725-9 1,173 594 579 5-9 1,218 617 60110-14 1,155 584 571 10-14 1,155 584 57115-19 1,089 563 526 15-19 1,108 573 53520-24 768 409 359 20-24 959 490 46925-29 670 327 343 25-29 757 394 36330-34 654 343 311 30-34 678 330 34835-39 689 339 350 35-39 629 329 30040-44 622 316 306 40-44 660 326 33445-49 595 319 276 45-49 589 300 28950-54 483 249 234 50-54 561 301 26055-59 362 187 175 55-59 439 225 21460-64 371 206 165 60-64 319 166 15365-69 412 228 184 65-69 325 180 14570-74 397 215 182 70-74 360 197 16375-79 298 153 145 75-79 321 169 15280-84 147 83 64 80-84 212 102 11085-89 67 31 36 85-89 86 46 4090+ 24 9 15 90+ 34 14 20



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.17North Slope Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 753 385 368 0-4 862 438 4245-9 624 319 305 5-9 695 353 34210-14 557 293 264 10-14 577 294 28315-19 633 326 307 15-19 483 263 22020-24 756 445 311 20-24 618 355 26325-29 754 455 299 25-29 792 488 30430-34 653 428 225 30-34 743 461 28235-39 587 412 175 35-39 603 409 19440-44 641 430 211 40-44 526 365 16145-49 841 557 284 45-49 709 499 21050-54 978 691 287 50-54 931 663 26855-59 842 637 205 55-59 853 620 23360-64 456 325 131 60-64 569 402 16765-69 192 125 67 65-69 255 153 10270-74 90 50 40 70-74 134 79 5575-79 53 22 31 75-79 59 29 3080-84 47 22 25 80-84 33 12 2185-89 17 6 11 85-89 26 11 1590+ 4 2 2 90+ 7 2 5



0-4 788 400 388 0-4 709 357 3525-9 811 410 401 5-9 740 371 36910-14 651 330 321 10-14 773 392 38115-19 510 268 242 15-19 590 347 24320-24 485 301 184 20-24 514 348 16625-29 662 401 261 25-29 535 338 19730-34 788 499 289 30-34 663 427 23635-39 694 443 251 35-39 743 460 28340-44 546 364 182 40-44 638 446 19245-49 602 439 163 45-49 629 493 13650-54 808 610 198 50-54 709 555 15455-59 810 594 216 55-59 693 469 22460-64 580 385 195 60-64 539 304 23565-69 361 223 138 65-69 373 216 15770-74 191 104 87 70-74 286 144 14275-79 94 51 43 75-79 143 77 6680-84 37 17 20 80-84 64 29 3585-89 18 6 12 85-89 21 6 1590+ 11 4 7 90+ 11 4 7




Table 3.17, cont.North Slope Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 704 356 348 0-4 780 394 3865-9 667 336 331 5-9 668 336 33210-14 708 356 352 10-14 639 320 31915-19 725 373 352 15-19 666 342 32420-24 602 352 250 20-24 738 417 32125-29 575 367 208 25-29 669 414 25530-34 542 372 170 30-34 589 390 19935-39 630 406 224 35-39 511 366 14540-44 692 441 251 40-44 589 371 21845-49 726 481 245 45-49 786 527 25950-54 743 565 178 50-54 847 608 23955-59 601 494 107 55-59 635 504 13160-64 428 312 116 60-64 341 263 7865-69 337 187 150 65-69 236 144 9270-74 297 154 143 70-74 267 136 13175-79 222 123 99 75-79 234 114 12080-84 101 48 53 80-84 158 83 7585-89 37 18 19 85-89 60 26 3490+ 11 3 8 90+ 18 7 11



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange -1 -6 -15 -5 17

Average Annual PercentChange -0.01% -0.06% -0.16% -0.05% 0.18%



Table 3.18Northwest Arctic Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 887 467 420 0-4 962 489 4735-9 692 345 347 5-9 853 449 40410-14 703 346 357 10-14 666 331 33515-19 714 375 339 15-19 649 326 32320-24 712 390 322 20-24 607 316 29125-29 554 272 282 25-29 682 365 31730-34 432 245 187 30-34 542 263 27935-39 401 221 180 35-39 399 226 17340-44 444 268 176 40-44 367 203 16445-49 491 284 207 45-49 408 248 16050-54 456 259 197 50-54 453 262 19155-59 358 221 137 55-59 411 233 17860-64 264 142 122 60-64 318 199 11965-69 146 80 66 65-69 227 121 10670-74 118 69 49 70-74 121 65 5675-79 94 36 58 75-79 88 50 3880-84 61 19 42 80-84 63 21 4285-89 28 9 19 85-89 35 9 2690+ 8 2 6 90+ 13 3 10



0-4 984 500 484 0-4 972 492 4805-9 933 473 460 5-9 956 482 47410-14 828 435 393 10-14 911 480 43115-19 610 310 300 15-19 778 380 39820-24 542 267 275 20-24 507 251 25625-29 587 297 290 25-29 525 267 25830-34 675 359 316 30-34 585 305 28035-39 508 243 265 35-39 646 306 34040-44 366 209 157 40-44 476 271 20545-49 335 186 149 45-49 336 186 15050-54 374 228 146 50-54 304 185 11955-59 408 236 172 55-59 335 199 13660-64 367 210 157 60-64 366 210 15665-69 275 172 103 65-69 322 199 12370-74 191 100 91 70-74 235 119 11675-79 91 47 44 75-79 150 76 7480-84 58 31 27 80-84 60 33 2785-89 36 10 26 85-89 32 10 2290+ 17 4 13 90+ 20 7 13




Table 3.18, cont.Northwest Arctic Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 994 505 489 0-4 1,080 549 5315-9 946 479 467 5-9 970 491 47910-14 937 474 463 10-14 929 470 45915-19 866 447 419 15-19 894 462 43220-24 667 356 311 20-24 760 388 37225-29 494 239 255 25-29 659 344 31530-34 526 249 277 30-34 498 240 25835-39 561 280 281 35-39 503 236 26740-44 615 328 287 40-44 536 269 26745-49 444 211 233 45-49 586 313 27350-54 307 176 131 50-54 417 196 22155-59 269 149 120 55-59 274 158 11660-64 297 185 112 60-64 235 132 10365-69 320 187 133 65-69 257 161 9670-74 278 156 122 70-74 277 160 11775-79 185 112 73 75-79 221 121 10080-84 103 48 55 80-84 126 73 5385-89 36 16 20 85-89 60 26 3490+ 20 7 13 90+ 20 7 13



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.19Southeast Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 4,655 2,396 2,259 0-4 4,671 2,379 2,2925-9 4,461 2,243 2,218 5-9 4,606 2,369 2,23710-14 4,645 2,427 2,218 10-14 4,431 2,241 2,19015-19 4,858 2,552 2,306 15-19 4,249 2,250 1,99920-24 4,172 2,155 2,017 20-24 4,089 2,111 1,97825-29 4,937 2,525 2,412 25-29 4,328 2,213 2,11530-34 4,515 2,338 2,177 30-34 5,128 2,595 2,53335-39 4,474 2,278 2,196 35-39 4,523 2,327 2,19640-44 4,991 2,579 2,412 40-44 4,383 2,251 2,13245-49 5,994 3,150 2,844 45-49 4,743 2,465 2,27850-54 6,459 3,322 3,137 50-54 5,673 2,984 2,68955-59 6,153 3,190 2,963 55-59 5,995 3,070 2,92560-64 4,629 2,513 2,116 60-64 5,681 2,935 2,74665-69 2,818 1,476 1,342 65-69 4,213 2,272 1,94170-74 1,792 946 846 70-74 2,455 1,256 1,19975-79 1,090 500 590 75-79 1,495 773 72280-84 800 353 447 80-84 818 354 46485-89 486 176 310 85-89 505 199 30690+ 220 68 152 90+ 297 92 205



0-4 4,472 2,278 2,194 0-4 4,209 2,145 2,0645-9 4,638 2,361 2,277 5-9 4,453 2,281 2,17210-14 4,583 2,371 2,212 10-14 4,630 2,361 2,26915-19 4,044 2,066 1,978 15-19 4,207 2,042 2,16520-24 3,497 1,808 1,689 20-24 3,319 1,761 1,55825-29 4,282 2,185 2,097 25-29 3,719 1,910 1,80930-34 4,526 2,294 2,232 30-34 4,521 2,251 2,27035-39 5,136 2,585 2,551 35-39 4,552 2,300 2,25240-44 4,450 2,311 2,139 40-44 5,068 2,633 2,43545-49 4,159 2,152 2,007 45-49 4,235 2,204 2,03150-54 4,463 2,324 2,139 50-54 3,904 2,019 1,88555-59 5,243 2,755 2,488 55-59 4,077 2,180 1,89760-64 5,545 2,830 2,715 60-64 4,825 2,470 2,35565-69 5,221 2,678 2,543 65-69 5,100 2,553 2,54770-74 3,728 1,975 1,753 70-74 4,660 2,422 2,23875-79 2,069 1,036 1,033 75-79 3,183 1,596 1,58780-84 1,136 561 575 80-84 1,603 830 77385-89 520 200 320 85-89 728 310 41890+ 340 114 226 90+ 363 122 241




Table 3.19, cont.Southeast Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 4,028 2,049 1,979 0-4 3,983 2,027 1,9565-9 4,203 2,140 2,063 5-9 4,035 2,053 1,98210-14 4,455 2,283 2,172 10-14 4,223 2,166 2,05715-19 4,285 2,220 2,065 15-19 4,133 2,139 1,99420-24 3,511 1,789 1,722 20-24 3,659 1,848 1,81125-29 3,571 1,757 1,814 25-29 3,788 1,920 1,86830-34 3,968 2,018 1,950 30-34 3,838 1,879 1,95935-39 4,573 2,305 2,268 35-39 4,030 2,040 1,99040-44 4,500 2,295 2,205 40-44 4,555 2,321 2,23445-49 4,870 2,490 2,380 45-49 4,324 2,226 2,09850-54 3,995 2,102 1,893 50-54 4,637 2,379 2,25855-59 3,540 1,837 1,703 55-59 3,642 1,918 1,72460-64 3,709 1,931 1,778 60-64 3,200 1,661 1,53965-69 4,430 2,309 2,121 65-69 3,386 1,753 1,63370-74 4,570 2,272 2,298 70-74 3,976 2,035 1,94175-79 4,011 1,977 2,034 75-79 3,946 1,925 2,02180-84 2,490 1,248 1,242 80-84 3,161 1,502 1,65985-89 1,046 460 586 85-89 1,651 767 88490+ 467 180 287 90+ 657 261 396



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange 27 -46 -140 -226 -280

Average Annual PercentChange 0.04% -0.06% -0.19% -0.32% -0.40%



Table 3.20Haines Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 130 62 68 0-4 112 54 585-9 137 63 74 5-9 138 67 7110-14 143 85 58 10-14 143 66 7715-19 137 65 72 15-19 125 77 4820-24 79 41 38 20-24 123 58 6525-29 117 56 61 25-29 97 49 4830-34 133 68 65 30-34 137 65 7235-39 146 71 75 35-39 144 73 7140-44 163 84 79 40-44 155 78 7745-49 230 120 110 45-49 167 86 8150-54 252 133 119 50-54 235 124 11155-59 277 142 135 55-59 246 130 11660-64 244 132 112 60-64 269 138 13165-69 140 71 69 65-69 232 124 10870-74 78 37 41 70-74 127 63 6475-79 67 28 39 75-79 66 30 3680-84 32 19 13 80-84 51 20 3185-89 21 8 13 85-89 18 11 790+ 9 3 6 90+ 13 4 9



0-4 115 56 59 0-4 116 57 595-9 119 58 61 5-9 124 61 6310-14 144 70 74 10-14 125 59 6615-19 126 58 68 15-19 125 56 6920-24 110 69 41 20-24 110 68 4225-29 141 66 75 25-29 129 61 6830-34 118 59 59 30-34 162 79 8335-39 147 69 78 35-39 129 63 6640-44 154 81 73 40-44 156 81 7545-49 158 79 79 45-49 157 81 7650-54 172 90 82 50-54 165 87 7855-59 229 122 107 55-59 169 92 7760-64 239 127 112 60-64 223 119 10465-69 255 130 125 65-69 228 114 11470-74 209 110 99 70-74 233 120 11375-79 107 52 55 75-79 180 89 9180-84 50 22 28 80-84 83 40 4385-89 33 12 21 85-89 31 13 1890+ 13 6 7 90+ 18 6 12




Table 3.20, cont.Haines Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 119 58 61 0-4 119 58 615-9 123 61 62 5-9 125 61 6410-14 126 62 64 10-14 128 63 6515-19 103 51 52 15-19 107 53 5420-24 108 52 56 20-24 90 45 4525-29 128 58 70 25-29 127 61 6630-34 150 87 63 30-34 148 67 8135-39 173 80 93 35-39 160 92 6840-44 136 70 66 40-44 181 87 9445-49 159 77 82 45-49 138 70 6850-54 162 86 76 50-54 165 83 8255-59 160 83 77 55-59 157 85 7260-64 163 87 76 60-64 156 82 7465-69 211 112 99 65-69 155 82 7370-74 208 108 100 70-74 194 101 9375-79 200 98 102 75-79 177 90 8780-84 142 71 71 80-84 159 76 8385-89 54 24 30 85-89 94 45 4990+ 21 8 13 90+ 33 13 20



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange 13 8 5 -3 -7

Average Annual PercentChange 0.49% 0.31% 0.18% -0.13% -0.25%



Table 3.21Hoonah-Angoon Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 125 68 57 0-4 124 59 655-9 110 41 69 5-9 105 56 4910-14 109 47 62 10-14 107 38 6915-19 137 80 57 15-19 84 35 4920-24 94 51 43 20-24 105 70 3525-29 124 72 52 25-29 78 44 3430-34 116 56 60 30-34 114 68 4635-39 101 47 54 35-39 117 53 6440-44 125 76 49 40-44 85 36 4945-49 183 98 85 45-49 100 68 3250-54 208 114 94 50-54 184 102 8255-59 235 124 111 55-59 190 100 9060-64 195 118 77 60-64 216 117 9965-69 126 74 52 65-69 173 107 6670-74 81 50 31 70-74 105 61 4475-79 45 34 11 75-79 64 40 2480-84 17 10 7 80-84 28 22 685-89 13 5 8 85-89 4 3 190+ 6 0 6 90+ 5 0 5

Total 2,150 1,165 985 Total 1,988 1,079 909Median Age 45.9 47.3 43.9 Median Age 48.8 50.6 44.4


0-4 101 48 53 0-4 89 40 495-9 108 50 58 5-9 86 38 4810-14 102 53 49 10-14 106 55 5115-19 86 27 59 15-19 84 30 5420-24 59 29 30 20-24 62 33 2925-29 93 65 28 25-29 48 35 1330-34 70 41 29 30-34 88 47 4135-39 117 67 50 35-39 72 39 3340-44 104 43 61 40-44 104 46 5845-49 63 29 34 45-49 84 43 4150-54 103 73 30 50-54 70 47 2355-59 169 91 78 55-59 94 53 4160-64 174 95 79 60-64 156 86 7065-69 192 105 87 65-69 155 83 7270-74 148 91 57 70-74 167 101 6675-79 84 49 35 75-79 120 69 5180-84 42 25 17 80-84 60 40 2085-89 11 10 1 85-89 22 18 490+ 2 0 2 90+ 2 1 1




Table 3.21, cont.Hoonah-Angoon Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 83 39 44 0-4 81 38 435-9 76 34 42 5-9 73 33 4010-14 87 38 49 10-14 78 34 4415-19 90 40 50 15-19 72 31 4120-24 63 40 23 20-24 75 38 3725-29 54 20 34 25-29 58 39 1930-34 43 23 20 30-34 51 19 3235-39 92 64 28 35-39 48 24 2440-44 62 32 30 40-44 85 58 2745-49 87 53 34 45-49 48 29 1950-54 90 45 45 50-54 94 60 3455-59 62 29 33 55-59 85 40 4560-64 84 61 23 60-64 56 29 2765-69 140 79 61 65-69 74 56 1870-74 135 74 61 70-74 122 68 5475-79 140 74 66 75-79 114 61 5380-84 88 52 36 80-84 103 53 5085-89 34 19 15 85-89 53 30 2390+ 8 5 3 90+ 15 8 7



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.22Juneau City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,999 1,026 973 0-4 2,046 1,040 1,0065-9 1,988 1,006 982 5-9 2,020 1,038 98210-14 2,028 1,040 988 10-14 2,015 1,037 97815-19 2,231 1,170 1,061 15-19 1,939 1,004 93520-24 1,950 1,000 950 20-24 1,946 996 95025-29 2,328 1,174 1,154 25-29 2,033 1,036 99730-34 2,036 1,068 968 30-34 2,469 1,240 1,22935-39 2,050 1,061 989 35-39 2,063 1,073 99040-44 2,312 1,181 1,131 40-44 2,046 1,073 97345-49 2,692 1,397 1,295 45-49 2,251 1,151 1,10050-54 2,795 1,419 1,376 50-54 2,520 1,308 1,21255-59 2,597 1,317 1,280 55-59 2,538 1,284 1,25460-64 1,875 992 883 60-64 2,378 1,198 1,18065-69 1,064 519 545 65-69 1,712 899 81370-74 673 347 326 70-74 925 438 48775-79 371 157 214 75-79 565 283 28280-84 300 123 177 80-84 277 112 16585-89 173 67 106 85-89 192 69 12390+ 76 21 55 90+ 105 34 71



0-4 1,998 1,015 983 0-4 1,909 973 9365-9 2,070 1,054 1,016 5-9 2,026 1,049 97710-14 2,049 1,071 978 10-14 2,101 1,087 1,01415-19 1,929 1,003 926 15-19 1,961 966 99520-24 1,659 829 830 20-24 1,650 855 79525-29 2,041 1,036 1,005 25-29 1,764 909 85530-34 2,174 1,105 1,069 30-34 2,196 1,095 1,10135-39 2,497 1,245 1,252 35-39 2,204 1,108 1,09640-44 2,062 1,087 975 40-44 2,498 1,313 1,18545-49 1,992 1,048 944 45-49 2,011 1,065 94650-54 2,093 1,071 1,022 50-54 1,837 935 90255-59 2,272 1,178 1,094 55-59 1,854 980 87460-64 2,323 1,167 1,156 60-64 2,065 1,040 1,02565-69 2,191 1,093 1,098 65-69 2,140 1,046 1,09470-74 1,514 779 735 70-74 1,954 985 96975-79 786 362 424 75-79 1,301 610 69180-84 429 208 221 80-84 609 303 30685-89 177 62 115 85-89 277 109 16890+ 125 40 85 90+ 128 45 83




Table 3.22, cont.Juneau City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,837 932 905 0-4 1,810 918 8925-9 1,940 987 953 5-9 1,872 952 92010-14 2,061 1,067 994 10-14 1,979 1,025 95415-19 2,020 1,056 964 15-19 1,985 1,037 94820-24 1,694 865 829 20-24 1,775 899 87625-29 1,767 885 882 25-29 1,821 929 89230-34 1,926 961 965 30-34 1,938 972 96635-39 2,240 1,128 1,112 35-39 1,971 976 99540-44 2,210 1,132 1,078 40-44 2,255 1,152 1,10345-49 2,449 1,239 1,210 45-49 2,168 1,114 1,05450-54 1,860 989 871 50-54 2,295 1,163 1,13255-59 1,606 850 756 55-59 1,630 869 76160-64 1,665 848 817 60-64 1,426 753 67365-69 1,901 974 927 65-69 1,522 769 75370-74 1,918 937 981 70-74 1,702 856 84675-79 1,691 810 881 75-79 1,663 796 86780-84 1,021 499 522 80-84 1,338 620 71885-89 401 161 240 85-89 680 306 37490+ 172 64 108 90+ 250 93 157



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange 100 68 21 -21 -60

Average Annual PercentChange 0.32% 0.21% 0.06% -0.07% -0.19%



Table 3.23Ketchikan Gateway Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 907 456 451 0-4 970 503 4675-9 861 457 404 5-9 890 445 44510-14 880 437 443 10-14 843 446 39715-19 941 493 448 15-19 777 396 38120-24 828 447 381 20-24 756 386 37025-29 987 523 464 25-29 836 449 38730-34 838 434 404 30-34 995 518 47735-39 787 381 406 35-39 827 426 40140-44 920 465 455 40-44 758 370 38845-49 1,129 590 539 45-49 861 433 42850-54 1,181 616 565 50-54 1,062 555 50755-59 1,077 546 531 55-59 1,110 576 53460-64 829 432 397 60-64 1,005 508 49765-69 522 272 250 65-69 755 391 36470-74 319 165 154 70-74 455 232 22375-79 201 89 112 75-79 268 135 13380-84 166 79 87 80-84 147 61 8685-89 101 36 65 85-89 106 45 6190+ 62 23 39 90+ 68 23 45



0-4 902 468 434 0-4 818 424 3945-9 958 495 463 5-9 894 461 43310-14 874 435 439 10-14 946 474 47215-19 742 408 334 15-19 777 408 36920-24 598 291 307 20-24 569 289 28025-29 772 392 380 25-29 618 314 30430-34 844 446 398 30-34 788 411 37735-39 984 510 474 35-39 836 437 39940-44 800 416 384 40-44 960 495 46545-49 703 340 363 45-49 749 363 38650-54 803 403 400 50-54 651 324 32755-59 998 519 479 55-59 748 399 34960-64 1,039 539 500 60-64 932 486 44665-69 924 464 460 65-69 957 472 48570-74 669 340 329 70-74 827 412 41575-79 387 193 194 75-79 576 290 28680-84 200 96 104 80-84 297 147 15085-89 94 34 60 85-89 130 55 7590+ 74 27 47 90+ 71 25 46




Table 3.23, cont.Ketchikan Gateway Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 764 397 367 0-4 766 398 3685-9 813 421 392 5-9 761 394 36710-14 885 456 429 10-14 809 418 39115-19 861 457 404 15-19 805 428 37720-24 609 298 311 20-24 706 364 34225-29 595 318 277 25-29 643 317 32630-34 634 303 331 30-34 614 322 29235-39 787 391 396 35-39 635 301 33440-44 817 436 381 40-44 776 390 38645-49 912 477 435 45-49 775 414 36150-54 701 365 336 50-54 868 455 41355-59 604 289 315 55-59 656 340 31660-64 695 348 347 60-64 559 268 29165-69 860 445 415 65-69 637 317 32070-74 860 436 424 70-74 775 395 38075-79 715 345 370 75-79 748 372 37680-84 449 215 234 80-84 562 261 30185-89 195 85 110 85-89 299 132 16790+ 85 32 53 90+ 121 47 74



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.24Petersburg Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 229 112 117 0-4 230 119 1115-9 225 108 117 5-9 221 107 11410-14 285 160 125 10-14 217 103 11415-19 247 119 128 15-19 256 149 10720-24 204 109 95 20-24 193 89 10425-29 220 110 110 25-29 200 106 9430-34 211 110 101 30-34 216 105 11135-39 217 108 109 35-39 203 105 9840-44 268 136 132 40-44 205 102 10345-49 322 170 152 45-49 247 124 12350-54 351 171 180 50-54 300 158 14255-59 341 188 153 55-59 329 159 17060-64 287 154 133 60-64 317 175 14265-69 192 119 73 65-69 261 139 12270-74 91 51 40 70-74 168 103 6575-79 64 30 34 75-79 76 42 3480-84 54 25 29 80-84 47 21 2685-89 25 12 13 85-89 34 14 2090+ 14 7 7 90+ 16 8 8



0-4 218 113 105 0-4 203 105 985-9 224 116 108 5-9 213 109 10410-14 213 103 110 10-14 218 104 11415-19 187 91 96 15-19 186 82 10420-24 202 117 85 20-24 140 83 5725-29 193 88 105 25-29 202 91 11130-34 197 103 94 30-34 194 99 9535-39 209 101 108 35-39 193 93 10040-44 193 101 92 40-44 200 103 9745-49 187 93 94 45-49 176 87 8950-54 229 115 114 50-54 172 85 8755-59 280 147 133 55-59 213 114 9960-64 308 148 160 60-64 262 126 13665-69 293 161 132 65-69 284 152 13270-74 232 122 110 70-74 262 134 12875-79 142 86 56 75-79 200 121 7980-84 57 30 27 80-84 110 60 5085-89 30 12 18 85-89 36 17 1990+ 21 9 12 90+ 22 8 14




Table 3.24, cont.Petersburg Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 191 99 92 0-4 182 95 875-9 200 103 97 5-9 187 97 9010-14 209 108 101 10-14 197 102 9515-19 194 103 91 15-19 188 100 8820-24 142 66 76 20-24 155 80 7525-29 143 65 78 25-29 146 68 7830-34 205 116 89 30-34 144 64 8035-39 191 84 107 35-39 204 115 8940-44 184 97 87 40-44 185 82 10345-49 185 89 96 45-49 172 90 8250-54 162 84 78 50-54 173 83 9055-59 158 78 80 55-59 149 77 7260-64 198 99 99 60-64 145 71 7465-69 241 126 115 65-69 182 90 9270-74 255 119 136 70-74 218 112 10675-79 226 120 106 75-79 220 101 11980-84 155 77 78 80-84 176 90 8685-89 70 39 31 85-89 104 48 5690+ 26 11 15 90+ 40 19 21



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.25Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 421 224 197 0-4 328 170 1585-9 366 184 182 5-9 407 216 19110-14 421 235 186 10-14 350 175 17515-19 352 207 145 15-19 373 217 15620-24 307 159 148 20-24 267 157 11025-29 307 167 140 25-29 296 152 14430-34 307 165 142 30-34 296 158 13835-39 341 171 170 35-39 292 156 13640-44 372 202 170 40-44 318 160 15845-49 476 267 209 45-49 337 183 15450-54 494 265 229 50-54 437 246 19155-59 528 298 230 55-59 454 242 21260-64 368 227 141 60-64 486 275 21165-69 266 160 106 65-69 329 203 12670-74 139 88 51 70-74 229 136 9375-79 93 55 38 75-79 112 70 4280-84 42 19 23 80-84 65 37 2885-89 19 10 9 85-89 25 10 1590+ 6 3 3 90+ 8 4 4



0-4 305 158 147 0-4 293 150 1435-9 317 164 153 5-9 296 151 14510-14 395 209 186 10-14 306 162 14415-19 304 156 148 15-19 354 169 18520-24 287 165 122 20-24 228 134 9425-29 263 153 110 25-29 287 166 12130-34 290 146 144 30-34 261 127 13435-39 282 150 132 35-39 280 148 13240-44 272 147 125 40-44 264 140 12445-49 288 144 144 45-49 245 121 12450-54 306 166 140 50-54 261 139 12255-59 403 226 177 55-59 279 159 12060-64 419 223 196 60-64 373 198 17565-69 443 250 193 65-69 383 210 17370-74 287 175 112 70-74 390 232 15875-79 189 110 79 75-79 239 138 10180-84 80 49 31 80-84 140 85 5585-89 39 21 18 85-89 48 27 2190+ 13 5 8 90+ 20 7 13




Table 3.25, cont.Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 289 150 139 0-4 283 147 1365-9 286 148 138 5-9 284 147 13710-14 289 149 140 10-14 281 145 13615-19 268 142 126 15-19 254 135 11920-24 279 149 130 20-24 209 107 10225-29 229 112 117 25-29 284 151 13330-34 288 163 125 30-34 233 111 12235-39 253 146 107 35-39 283 159 12440-44 265 133 132 40-44 243 142 10145-49 241 129 112 45-49 245 123 12250-54 222 120 102 50-54 221 119 10255-59 238 117 121 55-59 202 109 9360-64 255 139 116 60-64 217 107 11065-69 339 190 149 65-69 231 126 10570-74 339 177 162 70-74 302 167 13575-79 331 179 152 75-79 287 146 14180-84 178 103 75 80-84 251 131 12085-89 88 46 42 85-89 113 61 5290+ 27 14 13 90+ 47 24 23



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.26Sitka City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 626 344 282 0-4 632 321 3115-9 563 279 284 5-9 608 332 27610-14 548 303 245 10-14 545 275 27015-19 562 284 278 15-19 503 276 22720-24 521 243 278 20-24 469 231 23825-29 615 300 315 25-29 564 259 30530-34 643 331 312 30-34 642 311 33135-39 606 312 294 35-39 649 336 31340-44 563 298 265 40-44 589 302 28745-49 651 334 317 45-49 520 285 23550-54 791 393 398 50-54 630 322 30855-59 698 351 347 55-59 757 375 38260-64 514 282 232 60-64 638 318 32065-69 321 167 154 65-69 466 256 21070-74 259 120 139 70-74 281 143 13875-79 165 68 97 75-79 217 98 11980-84 130 53 77 80-84 138 53 8585-89 102 27 75 85-89 91 32 5990+ 35 8 27 90+ 63 14 49



0-4 597 303 294 0-4 552 278 2745-9 616 310 306 5-9 581 297 28410-14 592 329 263 10-14 601 324 27715-19 500 246 254 15-19 548 253 29520-24 409 219 190 20-24 407 220 18725-29 515 249 266 25-29 458 224 23430-34 591 270 321 30-34 545 249 29635-39 645 315 330 35-39 597 289 30840-44 633 327 306 40-44 629 334 29545-49 548 291 257 45-49 589 313 27650-54 503 275 228 50-54 532 290 24255-59 602 307 295 55-59 478 248 23060-64 696 342 354 60-64 546 271 27565-69 584 291 293 65-69 641 313 32870-74 413 224 189 70-74 523 279 24475-79 236 118 118 75-79 351 175 17680-84 179 76 103 80-84 195 85 11085-89 97 32 65 85-89 125 45 8090+ 70 19 51 90+ 76 21 55




Table 3.26, cont.Sitka City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 527 267 260 0-4 524 266 2585-9 539 271 268 5-9 513 257 25610-14 568 290 278 10-14 525 268 25715-19 562 282 280 15-19 528 264 26420-24 456 247 209 20-24 475 231 24425-29 460 214 246 25-29 510 269 24130-34 490 255 235 30-34 495 231 26435-39 553 269 284 35-39 499 263 23640-44 583 268 315 40-44 541 262 27945-49 589 296 293 45-49 543 259 28450-54 577 308 269 50-54 574 288 28655-59 507 269 238 55-59 552 295 25760-64 427 234 193 60-64 456 242 21465-69 500 254 246 65-69 389 215 17470-74 575 277 298 70-74 448 224 22475-79 449 215 234 75-79 496 235 26180-84 287 146 141 80-84 366 168 19885-89 135 57 78 85-89 198 92 10690+ 91 29 62 90+ 105 37 68



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035






Average AnnualChange 18 5 -10 -20 -28

Average Annual PercentChange 0.20% 0.05% -0.12% -0.22% -0.31%



Table 3.27Municipality of Skagway Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 49 27 22 0-4 53 23 305-9 33 18 15 5-9 47 30 1710-14 35 17 18 10-14 33 14 1915-19 46 20 26 15-19 18 2 1620-24 39 19 20 20-24 59 30 2925-29 82 36 46 25-29 67 29 3830-34 107 47 60 30-34 95 41 5435-39 66 40 26 35-39 105 47 5840-44 93 52 41 40-44 70 43 2745-49 68 36 32 45-49 94 55 3950-54 88 48 40 50-54 71 36 3555-59 103 61 42 55-59 87 50 3760-64 71 41 30 60-64 92 53 3965-69 41 16 25 65-69 57 29 2870-74 22 14 8 70-74 36 12 2475-79 9 2 7 75-79 18 14 480-84 10 4 6 80-84 9 2 785-89 6 2 4 85-89 4 2 290+ 0 0 0 90+ 3 1 2

Total 968 500 468 Total 1,018 513 505Median Age 41.5 42.5 40.1 Median Age 42.3 44.7 39.3


0-4 55 24 31 0-4 50 25 255-9 51 25 26 5-9 51 21 3010-14 45 25 20 10-14 50 17 3315-19 14 0 14 15-19 27 10 1720-24 34 15 19 20-24 31 12 1925-29 87 39 48 25-29 64 28 3630-34 79 33 46 30-34 101 42 5935-39 92 40 52 35-39 77 33 4440-44 110 50 60 40-44 96 45 5145-49 71 46 25 45-49 110 67 4350-54 97 55 42 50-54 74 43 3155-59 71 39 32 55-59 96 49 4760-64 78 43 35 60-64 61 29 3265-69 78 41 37 65-69 63 30 3370-74 51 24 27 70-74 70 35 3575-79 30 11 19 75-79 43 15 2880-84 15 10 5 80-84 26 23 385-89 3 1 2 85-89 7 3 490+ 3 2 1 90+ 3 1 2




Table 3.27, cont.Municipality of Skagway Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 47 20 27 0-4 48 20 285-9 46 23 23 5-9 44 22 2210-14 49 21 28 10-14 45 19 2615-19 31 6 25 15-19 32 6 2620-24 43 22 21 20-24 46 18 2825-29 61 22 39 25-29 74 32 4230-34 75 29 46 30-34 74 27 4735-39 96 43 53 35-39 71 28 4340-44 80 35 45 40-44 100 46 5445-49 96 47 49 45-49 80 39 4150-54 113 53 60 50-54 99 46 5355-59 73 48 25 55-59 112 56 5660-64 85 50 35 60-64 62 40 2265-69 46 19 27 65-69 70 37 3370-74 55 24 31 70-74 42 15 2775-79 59 31 28 75-79 48 23 2580-84 36 17 19 80-84 50 24 2685-89 15 5 10 85-89 21 11 1090+ 5 3 2 90+ 8 4 4



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Population at Start ofPeriod 968 1,018 1,064 1,100 1,111









Table 3.28Wrangell City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 129 60 69 0-4 135 70 655-9 136 65 71 5-9 129 60 6910-14 155 84 71 10-14 136 65 7115-19 152 86 66 15-19 143 80 6320-24 116 70 46 20-24 128 71 5725-29 115 60 55 25-29 122 73 4930-34 88 42 46 30-34 119 61 5835-39 114 59 55 35-39 88 42 4640-44 127 57 70 40-44 112 59 5345-49 187 103 84 45-49 121 54 6750-54 245 131 114 50-54 180 99 8155-59 237 124 113 55-59 235 125 11060-64 200 111 89 60-64 224 117 10765-69 123 64 59 65-69 185 102 8370-74 110 62 48 70-74 109 56 5375-79 66 36 30 75-79 94 52 4280-84 42 21 21 80-84 50 26 2485-89 21 8 13 85-89 27 13 1490+ 12 3 9 90+ 14 4 10



0-4 140 73 67 0-4 142 74 685-9 135 70 65 5-9 141 73 6810-14 130 60 70 10-14 137 63 7415-19 124 60 64 15-19 116 53 6320-24 117 64 53 20-24 99 56 4325-29 133 74 59 25-29 124 69 5530-34 125 74 51 30-34 138 81 5735-39 119 61 58 35-39 127 66 6140-44 87 42 45 40-44 118 56 6245-49 107 56 51 45-49 82 43 3950-54 115 51 64 50-54 102 45 5755-59 170 94 76 55-59 108 61 4760-64 223 119 104 60-64 161 87 7465-69 209 109 100 65-69 207 106 10170-74 167 91 76 70-74 188 101 8775-79 93 46 47 75-79 143 72 7180-84 73 39 34 80-84 72 40 3285-89 33 16 17 85-89 46 23 2390+ 17 6 11 90+ 21 7 14




Table 3.28, cont.Wrangell City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 139 72 67 0-4 139 72 675-9 143 74 69 5-9 143 74 6910-14 141 73 68 10-14 144 74 7015-19 125 67 58 15-19 130 69 6120-24 95 42 53 20-24 104 54 5025-29 108 50 58 25-29 101 45 5630-34 130 70 60 30-34 113 52 6135-39 140 76 64 35-39 132 71 6140-44 126 75 51 40-44 142 78 6445-49 112 58 54 45-49 120 72 4850-54 77 37 40 50-54 109 57 5255-59 95 50 45 55-59 72 34 3860-64 101 44 57 60-64 89 47 4265-69 150 83 67 65-69 93 41 5270-74 187 98 89 70-74 135 73 6275-79 163 82 81 75-79 162 83 7980-84 111 57 54 80-84 128 62 6685-89 48 21 27 85-89 75 36 3990+ 29 13 16 90+ 34 14 20



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.29Yakutat City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 40 17 23 0-4 41 20 215-9 42 22 20 5-9 41 18 2310-14 41 19 22 10-14 42 22 2015-19 53 28 25 15-19 31 14 1720-24 34 16 18 20-24 43 23 2025-29 42 27 15 25-29 35 16 1930-34 36 17 19 30-34 45 28 1735-39 46 28 18 35-39 35 16 1940-44 48 28 20 40-44 45 28 1745-49 56 35 21 45-49 45 26 1950-54 54 32 22 50-54 54 34 2055-59 60 39 21 55-59 49 29 2060-64 46 24 22 60-64 56 36 2065-69 23 14 9 65-69 43 22 2170-74 20 12 8 70-74 20 12 875-79 9 1 8 75-79 15 9 680-84 7 0 7 80-84 6 0 685-89 5 1 4 85-89 4 0 490+ 0 0 0 90+ 2 0 2

Total 662 360 302 Total 652 353 299Median Age 39.7 41.1 37.5 Median Age 41.4 43.5 38.3


0-4 41 20 21 0-4 37 19 185-9 40 19 21 5-9 41 21 2010-14 39 16 23 10-14 40 16 2415-19 32 17 15 15-19 29 15 1420-24 22 10 12 20-24 23 11 1225-29 44 23 21 25-29 25 13 1230-34 38 17 21 30-34 48 21 2735-39 44 27 17 35-39 37 24 1340-44 35 17 18 40-44 43 20 2345-49 42 26 16 45-49 32 21 1150-54 42 25 17 50-54 40 24 1655-59 49 32 17 55-59 38 25 1360-64 46 27 19 60-64 46 28 1865-69 52 34 18 65-69 42 27 1570-74 38 19 19 70-74 46 23 2375-79 15 9 6 75-79 30 17 1380-84 11 6 5 80-84 11 7 485-89 3 0 3 85-89 6 0 690+ 2 0 2 90+ 2 1 1




Table 3.29, cont.Yakutat City and Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 32 15 17 0-4 31 15 165-9 37 18 19 5-9 33 16 1710-14 40 19 21 10-14 37 18 1915-19 31 16 15 15-19 32 16 1620-24 22 8 14 20-24 24 12 1225-29 26 13 13 25-29 24 9 1530-34 27 11 16 30-34 28 14 1435-39 48 24 24 35-39 27 11 1640-44 37 17 20 40-44 47 24 2345-49 40 25 15 45-49 35 16 1950-54 31 15 16 50-54 39 25 1455-59 37 24 13 55-59 27 13 1460-64 36 21 15 60-64 34 22 1265-69 42 27 15 65-69 33 20 1370-74 38 22 16 70-74 38 24 1475-79 37 23 14 75-79 31 18 1380-84 23 11 12 80-84 28 17 1185-89 6 3 3 85-89 14 6 890+ 3 1 2 90+ 4 2 2



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Population at Start ofPeriod 662 652 635 616 593

Population at End ofPeriod 652 635 616 593 566








Table 3.30Southwest Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 3,691 1,929 1,762 0-4 4,578 2,338 2,2405-9 3,537 1,832 1,705 5-9 3,515 1,829 1,68610-14 3,530 1,849 1,681 10-14 3,404 1,766 1,63815-19 3,492 1,821 1,671 15-19 3,354 1,794 1,56020-24 3,247 1,809 1,438 20-24 3,287 1,787 1,50025-29 3,026 1,714 1,312 25-29 3,241 1,822 1,41930-34 2,510 1,421 1,089 30-34 2,809 1,539 1,27035-39 2,341 1,385 956 35-39 2,472 1,423 1,04940-44 2,825 1,691 1,134 40-44 2,369 1,414 95545-49 3,286 1,960 1,326 45-49 2,657 1,592 1,06550-54 2,992 1,772 1,220 50-54 3,058 1,800 1,25855-59 2,394 1,367 1,027 55-59 2,582 1,490 1,09260-64 1,641 951 690 60-64 2,042 1,138 90465-69 1,013 553 460 65-69 1,253 702 55170-74 552 300 252 70-74 804 424 38075-79 410 187 223 75-79 408 203 20580-84 240 122 118 80-84 270 113 15785-89 115 48 67 85-89 128 63 6590+ 49 19 30 90+ 61 22 39



0-4 4,787 2,447 2,340 0-4 4,810 2,463 2,3475-9 4,428 2,253 2,175 5-9 4,649 2,377 2,27210-14 3,385 1,768 1,617 10-14 4,326 2,226 2,10015-19 3,231 1,713 1,518 15-19 3,204 1,653 1,55120-24 3,147 1,756 1,391 20-24 3,032 1,707 1,32525-29 3,309 1,810 1,499 25-29 3,181 1,751 1,43030-34 3,043 1,659 1,384 30-34 3,157 1,696 1,46135-39 2,773 1,542 1,231 35-39 3,012 1,644 1,36840-44 2,507 1,454 1,053 40-44 2,806 1,571 1,23545-49 2,212 1,321 891 45-49 2,351 1,365 98650-54 2,458 1,452 1,006 50-54 2,022 1,203 81955-59 2,653 1,524 1,129 55-59 2,074 1,245 82960-64 2,222 1,256 966 60-64 2,285 1,285 1,00065-69 1,627 873 754 65-69 1,792 942 85070-74 1,020 558 462 70-74 1,355 699 65675-79 616 300 316 75-79 799 401 39880-84 271 124 147 80-84 420 204 21685-89 154 61 93 85-89 153 71 8290+ 70 29 41 90+ 81 28 53




Table 3.30, cont.Southwest Region Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 4,866 2,493 2,373 0-4 5,285 2,709 2,5765-9 4,680 2,386 2,294 5-9 4,754 2,427 2,32710-14 4,553 2,326 2,227 10-14 4,599 2,350 2,24915-19 4,179 2,166 2,013 15-19 4,434 2,298 2,13620-24 3,023 1,682 1,341 20-24 3,970 2,124 1,84625-29 3,085 1,725 1,360 25-29 3,104 1,744 1,36030-34 3,036 1,654 1,382 30-34 2,951 1,598 1,35335-39 3,145 1,689 1,456 35-39 3,042 1,684 1,35840-44 3,051 1,701 1,350 40-44 3,200 1,733 1,46745-49 2,645 1,478 1,167 45-49 2,903 1,612 1,29150-54 2,165 1,227 938 50-54 2,458 1,344 1,11455-59 1,655 933 722 55-59 1,799 976 82360-64 1,732 965 767 60-64 1,337 720 61765-69 1,852 1,009 843 65-69 1,346 717 62970-74 1,504 805 699 70-74 1,564 835 72975-79 1,080 534 546 75-79 1,211 618 59380-84 558 272 286 80-84 768 359 40985-89 243 104 139 85-89 330 152 17890+ 87 32 55 90+ 129 48 81



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035



Average AnnualBirths 962 999 1,003 1,021 1,093







Table 3.31Aleutians East Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 123 68 55 0-4 114 59 555-9 105 55 50 5-9 121 66 5510-14 88 40 48 10-14 100 52 4815-19 104 63 41 15-19 91 50 4120-24 249 187 62 20-24 242 180 6225-29 301 208 93 25-29 263 191 7230-34 213 144 69 30-34 251 170 8135-39 242 182 60 35-39 268 189 7940-44 355 251 104 40-44 328 229 9945-49 431 299 132 45-49 386 288 9850-54 340 223 117 50-54 389 253 13655-59 264 174 90 55-59 251 159 9260-64 171 104 67 60-64 188 115 7365-69 75 46 29 65-69 86 55 3170-74 33 18 15 70-74 55 31 2475-79 25 14 11 75-79 23 12 1180-84 15 12 3 80-84 15 8 785-89 5 4 1 85-89 10 9 190+ 2 1 1 90+ 2 1 1



0-4 107 55 52 0-4 104 53 515-9 110 56 54 5-9 104 53 5110-14 117 64 53 10-14 106 53 5315-19 104 63 41 15-19 119 72 4720-24 235 173 62 20-24 247 187 6025-29 254 183 71 25-29 247 174 7330-34 213 153 60 30-34 209 147 6235-39 306 215 91 35-39 264 196 6840-44 354 236 118 40-44 392 260 13245-49 358 265 93 45-49 384 273 11150-54 343 241 102 50-54 314 216 9855-59 298 188 110 55-59 253 178 7560-64 174 99 75 60-64 218 126 9265-69 102 64 38 65-69 91 51 4070-74 65 39 26 70-74 80 47 3375-79 42 23 19 75-79 51 31 2080-84 13 6 7 80-84 28 16 1285-89 11 7 4 85-89 10 7 390+ 4 3 1 90+ 5 2 3




Table 3.31, cont.Aleutians East Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 104 54 50 0-4 106 55 515-9 102 52 50 5-9 103 53 5010-14 100 51 49 10-14 98 49 4915-19 108 63 45 15-19 102 60 4220-24 262 196 66 20-24 247 182 6525-29 259 187 72 25-29 276 199 7730-34 200 140 60 30-34 215 154 6135-39 259 190 69 35-39 254 185 6940-44 352 242 110 40-44 342 234 10845-49 422 298 124 45-49 384 281 10350-54 339 224 115 50-54 377 250 12755-59 224 153 71 55-59 248 158 9060-64 174 114 60 60-64 148 92 5665-69 132 76 56 65-69 92 66 2670-74 71 36 35 70-74 106 58 4875-79 63 37 26 75-79 56 28 2880-84 35 20 15 80-84 44 25 1985-89 18 10 8 85-89 24 14 1090+ 5 2 3 90+ 10 5 5



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.32Aleutians West Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 205 106 99 0-4 188 97 915-9 227 113 114 5-9 192 96 9610-14 227 130 97 10-14 218 107 11115-19 250 150 100 15-19 216 142 7420-24 334 233 101 20-24 395 267 12825-29 517 375 142 25-29 442 343 9930-34 456 320 136 30-34 456 317 13935-39 478 345 133 35-39 477 334 14340-44 662 465 197 40-44 569 416 15345-49 629 433 196 45-49 625 438 18750-54 606 421 185 50-54 615 422 19355-59 459 300 159 55-59 487 323 16460-64 328 222 106 60-64 368 238 13065-69 110 70 40 65-69 190 123 6770-74 47 34 13 70-74 57 35 2275-79 17 8 9 75-79 22 14 880-84 14 6 8 80-84 12 5 785-89 4 0 4 85-89 7 3 490+ 1 0 1 90+ 2 0 2



0-4 179 93 86 0-4 168 87 815-9 176 88 88 5-9 167 83 8410-14 183 89 94 10-14 167 81 8615-19 206 117 89 15-19 170 97 7320-24 368 264 104 20-24 360 245 11525-29 498 370 128 25-29 471 367 10430-34 379 285 94 30-34 442 314 12835-39 475 330 145 35-39 398 298 10040-44 569 406 163 40-44 567 400 16745-49 533 391 142 45-49 531 379 15250-54 613 430 183 50-54 520 378 14255-59 496 325 171 55-59 492 336 15660-64 395 260 135 60-64 403 262 14165-69 229 139 90 65-69 253 157 9670-74 129 83 46 70-74 164 95 6975-79 32 15 17 75-79 93 57 3680-84 16 9 7 80-84 23 11 1285-89 6 2 4 85-89 9 6 390+ 3 0 3 90+ 3 1 2




Table 3.32, cont.Aleutians West Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 159 83 76 0-4 149 78 715-9 157 78 79 5-9 149 75 7410-14 158 77 81 10-14 147 72 7515-19 154 91 63 15-19 147 87 6020-24 327 225 102 20-24 306 212 9425-29 464 347 117 25-29 433 332 10130-34 414 314 100 30-34 408 293 11535-39 461 329 132 35-39 435 328 10740-44 490 368 122 40-44 548 396 15245-49 528 374 154 45-49 454 342 11250-54 520 370 150 50-54 516 365 15155-59 401 282 119 55-59 401 272 12960-64 397 266 131 60-64 312 220 9265-69 261 160 101 65-69 258 166 9270-74 186 114 72 70-74 195 117 7875-79 123 66 57 75-79 143 83 6080-84 72 41 31 80-84 94 49 4585-89 14 6 8 85-89 45 25 2090+ 5 2 3 90+ 7 2 5



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.33Bethel Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,810 918 892 0-4 2,343 1,200 1,1435-9 1,776 926 850 5-9 1,728 872 85610-14 1,682 878 804 10-14 1,729 903 82615-19 1,630 838 792 15-19 1,600 839 76120-24 1,359 693 666 20-24 1,388 701 68725-29 1,220 626 594 25-29 1,290 641 64930-34 1,055 540 515 30-34 1,164 584 58035-39 900 461 439 35-39 1,003 511 49240-44 972 538 434 40-44 829 417 41245-49 1,171 660 511 45-49 895 482 41350-54 1,056 583 473 50-54 1,092 609 48355-59 856 454 402 55-59 955 524 43160-64 608 333 275 60-64 759 395 36465-69 455 236 219 65-69 521 278 24370-74 215 118 97 70-74 382 194 18875-79 196 77 119 75-79 162 82 8080-84 114 56 58 80-84 130 46 8485-89 45 21 24 85-89 60 27 3390+ 24 10 14 90+ 25 10 15



0-4 2,440 1,251 1,189 0-4 2,485 1,278 1,2075-9 2,276 1,162 1,114 5-9 2,378 1,222 1,15610-14 1,682 850 832 10-14 2,243 1,113 1,13015-19 1,652 867 785 15-19 1,599 811 78820-24 1,348 693 655 20-24 1,395 731 66425-29 1,336 658 678 25-29 1,301 642 65930-34 1,240 603 637 30-34 1,305 628 67735-39 1,112 556 556 35-39 1,193 587 60640-44 934 468 466 40-44 1,041 500 54145-49 758 364 394 45-49 862 406 45650-54 828 439 389 50-54 696 367 32955-59 991 551 440 55-59 741 417 32460-64 854 462 392 60-64 887 477 41065-69 661 335 326 65-69 746 372 37470-74 441 231 210 70-74 566 281 28575-79 298 141 157 75-79 348 162 18680-84 105 50 55 80-84 204 102 10285-89 72 22 50 85-89 56 22 3490+ 31 13 18 90+ 38 13 25




Table 3.33, cont.Bethel Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 2,572 1,321 1,251 0-4 2,834 1,456 1,3785-9 2,425 1,241 1,184 5-9 2,521 1,291 1,23010-14 2,348 1,203 1,145 10-14 2,402 1,232 1,17015-19 2,178 1,119 1,059 15-19 2,295 1,179 1,11620-24 1,352 665 687 20-24 1,916 966 95025-29 1,356 683 673 25-29 1,328 641 68730-34 1,276 628 648 30-34 1,338 662 67635-39 1,268 611 657 35-39 1,245 613 63240-44 1,125 538 587 40-44 1,212 577 63545-49 968 458 510 45-49 1,056 485 57150-54 801 376 425 50-54 907 418 48955-59 615 282 333 55-59 718 331 38760-64 648 333 315 60-64 527 228 29965-69 778 418 360 65-69 557 277 28070-74 643 335 308 70-74 672 356 31675-79 452 211 241 75-79 518 256 26280-84 238 110 128 80-84 316 138 17885-89 115 47 68 85-89 137 59 7890+ 35 12 23 90+ 58 21 37



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.34Bristol Bay Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 48 25 23 0-4 55 27 285-9 59 26 33 5-9 44 23 2110-14 72 34 38 10-14 53 23 3015-19 65 37 28 15-19 65 30 3520-24 49 30 19 20-24 51 30 2125-29 65 35 30 25-29 52 31 2130-34 47 26 21 30-34 65 35 3035-39 58 30 28 35-39 44 26 1840-44 67 40 27 40-44 54 28 2645-49 111 58 53 45-49 62 37 2550-54 118 64 54 50-54 104 55 4955-59 104 59 45 55-59 110 59 5160-64 56 35 21 60-64 96 55 4165-69 37 23 14 65-69 49 31 1870-74 21 10 11 70-74 31 19 1275-79 15 7 8 75-79 17 8 980-84 6 4 2 80-84 11 5 685-89 3 0 3 85-89 3 2 190+ 1 0 1 90+ 2 0 2

Total 1,002 543 459 Total 968 524 444Median Age 42.8 43.6 41.8 Median Age 45.1 46.2 43.5


0-4 56 28 28 0-4 53 26 275-9 51 25 26 5-9 53 26 2710-14 37 20 17 10-14 46 24 2215-19 46 20 26 15-19 30 12 1820-24 51 24 27 20-24 34 15 1925-29 54 30 24 25-29 55 30 2530-34 53 31 22 30-34 56 32 2435-39 64 35 29 35-39 51 27 2440-44 41 24 17 40-44 61 35 2645-49 49 25 24 45-49 37 19 1850-54 57 35 22 50-54 44 26 1855-59 96 50 46 55-59 51 27 2460-64 103 56 47 60-64 90 48 4265-69 87 49 38 65-69 93 51 4270-74 43 27 16 70-74 77 46 3175-79 26 15 11 75-79 36 21 1580-84 13 5 8 80-84 19 8 1185-89 7 3 4 85-89 8 3 590+ 2 1 1 90+ 3 1 2




Table 3.34, cont.Bristol Bay Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 47 23 24 0-4 44 22 225-9 51 25 26 5-9 45 22 2310-14 48 24 24 10-14 47 23 2415-19 39 20 19 15-19 43 22 2120-24 20 12 8 20-24 31 16 1525-29 38 16 22 25-29 25 13 1230-34 56 25 31 30-34 40 16 2435-39 56 32 24 35-39 56 26 3040-44 48 29 19 40-44 52 30 2245-49 56 31 25 45-49 45 27 1850-54 33 20 13 50-54 52 29 2355-59 39 20 19 55-59 29 17 1260-64 46 28 18 60-64 36 19 1765-69 83 43 40 65-69 41 25 1670-74 82 44 38 70-74 74 38 3675-79 65 36 29 75-79 72 37 3580-84 27 16 11 80-84 50 27 2385-89 12 6 6 85-89 17 9 890+ 5 2 3 90+ 7 3 4



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035

Population at Start ofPeriod 1,002 968 936 897 851

Population at End ofPeriod 968 936 897 851 806








Table 3.35Dillingham Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 455 245 210 0-4 500 252 2485-9 411 221 190 5-9 435 235 20010-14 454 237 217 10-14 387 211 17615-19 465 242 223 15-19 430 228 20220-24 396 192 204 20-24 391 204 18725-29 313 162 151 25-29 388 182 20630-34 267 140 127 30-34 305 155 15035-39 210 113 97 35-39 250 134 11640-44 275 138 137 40-44 187 100 8745-49 383 203 180 45-49 248 123 12550-54 362 187 175 50-54 350 186 16455-59 329 176 153 55-59 329 167 16260-64 187 103 84 60-64 299 161 13865-69 140 71 69 65-69 161 88 7370-74 96 56 40 70-74 117 58 5975-79 63 35 28 75-79 77 43 3480-84 40 20 20 80-84 42 22 2085-89 22 11 11 85-89 23 11 1290+ 6 3 3 90+ 11 5 6



0-4 518 261 257 0-4 497 250 2475-9 483 244 239 5-9 504 255 24910-14 412 226 186 10-14 463 252 21115-19 362 202 160 15-19 390 215 17520-24 357 190 167 20-24 294 156 13825-29 388 196 192 25-29 357 180 17730-34 385 177 208 30-34 391 178 21335-39 289 149 140 35-39 372 189 18340-44 228 121 107 40-44 268 140 12845-49 163 87 76 45-49 205 111 9450-54 221 110 111 50-54 139 66 7355-59 319 167 152 55-59 195 105 9060-64 300 153 147 60-64 291 148 14365-69 266 142 124 65-69 267 140 12770-74 138 75 63 70-74 230 118 11275-79 94 44 50 75-79 111 51 6080-84 54 28 26 80-84 66 36 3085-89 26 13 13 85-89 31 16 1590+ 13 6 7 90+ 14 5 9




Table 3.35, cont.Dillingham Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 469 236 233 0-4 475 239 2365-9 484 244 240 5-9 458 231 22710-14 485 248 237 10-14 468 239 22915-19 445 229 216 15-19 470 242 22820-24 322 182 140 20-24 380 196 18425-29 298 162 136 25-29 329 180 14930-34 361 183 178 30-34 301 162 13935-39 379 192 187 35-39 352 182 17040-44 351 162 189 40-44 364 184 18045-49 245 125 120 45-49 330 151 17950-54 181 97 84 50-54 221 113 10855-59 117 61 56 55-59 158 83 7560-64 175 86 89 60-64 100 54 4665-69 258 136 122 65-69 152 73 7970-74 232 116 116 70-74 225 117 10875-79 189 96 93 75-79 191 92 9980-84 78 38 40 80-84 135 64 7185-89 40 16 24 85-89 48 22 2690+ 17 8 9 90+ 23 9 14



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.36Lake and Peninsula Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 140 68 72 0-4 149 75 745-9 124 64 60 5-9 131 63 6810-14 140 68 72 10-14 113 59 5415-19 151 74 77 15-19 127 62 6520-24 131 64 67 20-24 123 60 6325-29 126 65 61 25-29 129 61 6830-34 103 59 44 30-34 123 62 6135-39 76 41 35 35-39 95 56 3940-44 86 49 37 40-44 66 36 3045-49 135 81 54 45-49 75 43 3250-54 142 84 58 50-54 122 74 4855-59 95 47 48 55-59 128 75 5360-64 71 36 35 60-64 85 42 4365-69 56 31 25 65-69 61 31 3070-74 35 19 16 70-74 47 26 2175-79 15 9 6 75-79 28 14 1480-84 11 7 4 80-84 10 6 485-89 6 1 5 85-89 6 4 290+ 4 1 3 90+ 4 1 3



0-4 148 74 74 0-4 134 67 675-9 141 71 70 5-9 142 72 7010-14 120 59 61 10-14 132 63 6915-19 100 53 47 15-19 109 58 5120-24 100 48 52 20-24 76 37 3925-29 122 58 64 25-29 101 48 5330-34 127 59 68 30-34 122 56 6635-39 117 60 57 35-39 121 62 5940-44 87 52 35 40-44 108 64 4445-49 56 30 26 45-49 78 43 3550-54 65 38 27 50-54 47 27 2055-59 111 67 44 55-59 55 34 2160-64 116 69 47 60-64 99 59 4065-69 74 36 38 65-69 104 50 5470-74 51 25 26 70-74 64 30 3475-79 38 20 18 75-79 42 22 2080-84 19 9 10 80-84 26 13 1385-89 5 3 2 85-89 11 5 690+ 4 2 2 90+ 4 1 3




Table 3.36, cont.Lake and Peninsula Borough Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 119 60 59 0-4 117 58 595-9 129 65 64 5-9 114 57 5710-14 134 68 66 10-14 122 62 6015-19 123 63 60 15-19 126 65 6120-24 87 43 44 20-24 102 53 4925-29 79 41 38 25-29 89 42 4730-34 103 47 56 30-34 79 40 3935-39 118 55 63 35-39 99 46 5340-44 115 54 61 40-44 113 53 6045-49 98 50 48 45-49 105 48 5750-54 69 42 27 50-54 90 47 4355-59 38 20 18 55-59 59 36 2360-64 48 28 20 60-64 33 18 1565-69 88 54 34 65-69 41 24 1770-74 89 52 37 70-74 76 47 2975-79 52 24 28 75-79 74 43 3180-84 30 13 17 80-84 38 16 2285-89 16 7 9 85-89 18 7 1190+ 5 2 3 90+ 8 3 5



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Table 3.37Wade Hampton Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 910 499 411 0-4 1,229 628 6015-9 835 427 408 5-9 864 474 39010-14 867 462 405 10-14 804 411 39315-19 827 417 410 15-19 825 443 38220-24 729 410 319 20-24 697 345 35225-29 484 243 241 25-29 677 373 30430-34 369 192 177 30-34 445 216 22935-39 377 213 164 35-39 335 173 16240-44 408 210 198 40-44 336 188 14845-49 426 226 200 45-49 366 181 18550-54 368 210 158 50-54 386 201 18555-59 287 157 130 55-59 322 183 13960-64 220 118 102 60-64 247 132 11565-69 140 76 64 65-69 185 96 8970-74 105 45 60 70-74 115 61 5475-79 79 37 42 75-79 79 30 4980-84 40 17 23 80-84 50 21 2985-89 30 11 19 85-89 19 7 1290+ 11 4 7 90+ 15 5 10



0-4 1,339 685 654 0-4 1,369 702 6675-9 1,191 607 584 5-9 1,301 666 63510-14 834 460 374 10-14 1,169 640 52915-19 761 391 370 15-19 787 388 39920-24 688 364 324 20-24 626 336 29025-29 657 315 342 25-29 649 310 33930-34 646 351 295 30-34 632 341 29135-39 410 197 213 35-39 613 285 32840-44 294 147 147 40-44 369 172 19745-49 295 159 136 45-49 254 134 12050-54 331 159 172 50-54 262 123 13955-59 342 176 166 55-59 287 148 13960-64 280 157 123 60-64 297 165 13265-69 208 108 100 65-69 238 121 11770-74 153 78 75 70-74 174 82 9275-79 86 42 44 75-79 118 57 6180-84 51 17 34 80-84 54 18 3685-89 27 11 16 85-89 28 12 1690+ 13 4 9 90+ 14 5 9




Table 3.37, cont.Wade Hampton Census Area Population by Age and Sex, and Components of Change, 2010 – 2035


0-4 1,396 716 680 0-4 1,560 801 7595-9 1,332 681 651 5-9 1,364 698 66610-14 1,280 655 625 10-14 1,315 673 64215-19 1,132 581 551 15-19 1,251 643 60820-24 653 359 294 20-24 988 499 48925-29 591 289 302 25-29 624 337 28730-34 626 317 309 30-34 570 271 29935-39 604 280 324 35-39 601 304 29740-44 570 308 262 40-44 569 259 31045-49 328 142 186 45-49 529 278 25150-54 222 98 124 50-54 295 122 17355-59 221 115 106 55-59 186 79 10760-64 244 110 134 60-64 181 89 9265-69 252 122 130 65-69 205 86 11970-74 201 108 93 70-74 216 102 11475-79 136 64 72 75-79 157 79 7880-84 78 34 44 80-84 91 40 5185-89 28 12 16 85-89 41 16 2590+ 15 4 11 90+ 16 5 11



2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035










Introduction

This technical appendix provides information on the methods used to produce the 2010 to 2035 Alaska population projections. It fi rst presents methods used to estimate statewide mortality, fertility, and migration rates, then describes application of the estimates data to a cohort component projection model. Next, this appendix discusses methods used to project borough and census area mortality, fertility, and migration rates; and apply-ing these to a cohort component model. Finally, it explains the “bridged” race estimates and the methods for projecting Alaska Native births, deaths, migration, and population. All computa-tions used the R statistical package, SPSS, and Microsoft Excel.

Statewide Mortality

The Research and Analysis Section used the Brass relational logit model for mortality (Preston, Heuveline, and Guillot, 2001) to project mortality rates. Projected mortality rates are based on a linear interpolation of Brass coeffi cients calculated from Social Security life tables for the United States, 2010 and 2040 (Bell and Miller, 2005), by sex. The interpolated coef-fi cients were then applied to a 2010 Alaska life table, created using Alaska vital statistics data, which produced age-specifi c mortality rates for 2010 through 2035 for males and females.

Statewide Fertility

To project fertility, age specifi c fertility rates were averaged for 2008 to 2010 and used to create a proportional fertility-by-age profi le. The total fertility rate (TFR) — the sum of age specifi c fertility rates — was then multiplied by the profi le to assign the number of expected births per woman to each age group. A TFR of 2.3 was chosen for the projected years, as Alaska’s TFR is expected decrease slightly in the future.

Statewide Migration

To project migration for Alaska, two values were used: the net-migration ratio (net-migration divided by mid-year population) and the out-migration rate (number of out-migrants divided by mid-year population). Adding the net-migration ratio to the out-migration rate produced the in-migration ratio (number of in-migrants divided by the mid-year population). The “baseline” projection used an annual net-migration ratio of .00171, which was estimated using the last 10 years of data from the Alaska Permanent Fund as well as population estimates. The “high” scenario projection used an annual net-migration ratio of .01, the “low” scenario projection assumed a -.005 annual net-mi-gration ratio. The out-migration rate was held constant.

The overall numbers of in- and out-migrants were then assigned to the proper age-by-sex categories when multiplied with the age-by-sex in- and out-migration share profi les. Migration share profi les were estimated by subtracting births and deaths from Alaska Permanent Fund data nonmatches (persons not present in consecutive annual Permanent Fund fi les).

Statewide Projection Model

Once the necessary components were calculated, the Research and Analysis Section applied them to a cohort component projection model (Preston, Heuveline and Guillot, 2001). For this model, Leslie Matrices were used to project natural increase — the effects of births and deaths on a population — while projected out-migrants were subtracted and in-migrants added at each step. The model was run three times with the differ-ent migration scenarios to produce the “baseline,” “high,” and “low” projections.

Borough and Census Area Mortality

Given the very small populations of Alaska boroughs and census areas, it was not feasible to create age-by-sex specifi c mortality rates at the sub-state level. Rather than applying the statewide levels of mortality to each borough and census area though, it was decided to account for the distinct racial composition of each area, and to adjust the levels of mortal-ity accordingly. Levels of mortality were linearly interpolated between statewide Alaska Native and non-Native lifetables, based on the total proportion of Alaska Natives in each borough or census area. The next step was to apply the Brass projection coeffi cients that were calculated for statewide mortality to the interpolated life tables. Applying the Brass coeffi cients yielded age specifi c rates of mortality for 2010 through 2035, based on the U.S. Social Security Administration’s projected change in U.S. mortality.

Borough and Census Area Fertility

Age-specifi c fertility rates were calculated for most borough and census areas using data from 2005-2010, and then held constant through the projection period. For smaller boroughs and census areas it was necessary to use data from 2000-2010, and in some cases to group similar borough and census areas. Area-specifi c fertility rates were not lowered through time, as movement from rural to urban areas lowers the statewide total fertility rate.

Appendix ATechnical Notes


Borough and Census Area Migration

The Research and Analysis Section estimated migration for each boroughand census area using the net-migration ratio and the out-migration rate of each from 2000 to 2010. Net-migra-tion ratios and out-migration rates used annual borough and census area estimates as well as Alaska Permanent Fund data nonmatches, with deaths and births subtracted. Migrants were distributed according to age-by-sex migration share profi les, estimated from Alaska Permanent Fund data.

The projected net-migration ratios for each borough and census area gradually converge toward the net-migration ratio of the “baseline” state projection. This adjustment allowed boroughs and census areas with high positive net-migration to continue gaining a reasonable number of in-migrants while keeping boroughs and census areas with highly negative net-migration from losing an unreasonable number of people to migration.

Borough and Census Area Projections

Borough and census area projections used the cohort compo-nent method, like the state projection, but with fi ve-year steps instead of single-year because of the smaller populations. The model was run separately for each borough and census area, with each area’s unique components of change put into the model. The sub-state age-by-sex projections were then fi t to the “baseline” state age-by-sex projection using “iterative proportional fi tting” (Smith, Tayman, and Swanson, 2001).

Alaska Native “Bridged” Estimates

Beginning in 2000, the U.S. Census Bureau reformatted its race question, allowing people to select more than one race category. However, vital and educational statistics (among oth-ers) do not offer a multi-race option, making data on race less clear. The “bridged” race data series provided by the Research and Analysis Section attempts to address this problem. Further description and data from 2000 to 2010 are available online at labor.alaska.gov/research/pop/popest.htm.

Alaska Native Population Projections

Alaska Native mortality data from the Alaska vital statistics for 2005-2010 were used to estimate age-by-sex specifi c mor-tality rates for Natives. The Brass coeffi cients from the U.S. Social Security Administration were then applied to project age-by-sex specifi c mortality rates through 2035.

Fertility for Alaska Natives was found using vital statistics data for 2000 to 2010 and held constant throughout the projec-tion.

Migration for Alaska Natives was estimated using the cohort component method to project the 2000 estimated population to 2005 and then the estimated 2005 population was projected to 2010. The projected values were compared with the 2005 and 2010 population estimates to fi nd migration ratios by age and sex.

The cohort component method was then used, as with the bor-oughs and census areas, to project the Alaska Native popula-tion by age and sex. The difference between the Alaska Native projection and the “baseline” state projection is attributed to Alaska’s non-Native population.


Bell, F. and Miller, M. (2005). “Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100.” Actuarial Study No. 120, SSA Pub. No. 11-11536. Washington, D.C.: Offi ce of the Chief Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration.

Preston, S., Heuveline, P., Guillot, M. (2001). Demography. Malden, MA: Blackwell.

Smith, S., Tayman, J., and Swanson, S. (2001). State and Local Population Projections. New York: Kluwer Academic / Plenum.

Appendix BTechnical References

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