Airport Characteristics: Part 2Prof. Amedeo Odoni

Air Transportation Systems and Infrastructure

Module 4

May 25, 2015

Istanbul Technical University

Air Transportation Management

M.Sc. Program

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Outline

General introduction and the changing notion

of “what is a major airport”

Some standard configurations, nomenclature,

background

A few non-standard configurations

Regional characteristics

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(1) (2) (1)/(2) (1) (2) (1)/(2)

Atlanta ATL 96.2 868 111 Singapore SIN 54.1 341 159

Beijing PEK 86.1 582 148 New York JFK 53.6 423 127

London LHR 73.4 473 155 Denver DEN 53.5 566 95

Tokyo HND 72.8 426 171 Shanghai PVG 51.7 402 129

Los Angeles LAX 70.7 637 111 Kuala Lumpur KUL 48.9 341 143

Dubai DXB 70.5 357 197 San Francisco SFO 47.1 432 109

Chicago ORD 70.0 882 79 Bangkok BKK 46.4 290 160

Paris CDG 63.8 471 135 Seoul Incheon ICN 45.7 298* 153

Dallas DFW 63.5 680 93 Charlotte CLT 44.3 545 81

Hong Kong HKG 59.7 402 149 Las Vegas LAS 42.9 522 82

Frankfurt FRA 59.6 469 127 Phoenix PHX 42.1 430 98

Jakarta CGK 57.0 382 149 Madrid MAD 41.8 343 122

Istanbul IST 56.8 440 129 Houston IAH 41.2 509 81

Amsterdam AMS 55.0 453 121 Miami MIA 40.9 403 101

Guangzhou CAN 54.8 412 133 Sao Paulo GRU 39.8 305 130

30 Busiest Airports in the World (2014)(1) = pax (million); (2) = movements (thousand)

Sources: ACI + Websites * Estimated

Evolution of 30 busiest airports by region

1991 1999 2014

North America 21 19 12*

Europe 4 6 7

Asia (+ Middle East + Oceania) 5 5 11

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*One in South America (Sao Paulo Guarulhos)

•Expect increasing future presence of Asian airports

• Several airports on list operating at their capacity limit

or close to it (e.g., PEK, ORD, LHR, DXB, HKG, IST, JFK,

SFO, GRU)

Source: Center for Asian and Pacific Aviation (2011)

IATA: Partial List of Badly Congested Airports (2014)

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• Airports with full terminals: 90 in 2014; 223 in 2020

• Airports operating at 90% capacity of the runways: 6 in

2014; 63 in 2020

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Averages for 15 Busiest Airports (2010)

Busiest 15

Airports

in…

Millions of

Annual

Passengers

(average)

Thousands of

annual aircraft

movements

(average)

Passengers

per

movement

North

America

46.9 541 87

Europe 35.7 (-24%) 325 (-40%) 110 (+26%)

Asia 42.9 (-9%) 296 (-45%) 145 (+67%)

* Data: Airports Council International (2011)

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Averages for 15 Busiest Airports (2007)

Busiest 15

Airports

in…

Millions of

Annual

Passengers

(average)

Thousands of

annual aircraft

movements

(average)

Passengers

per

movement

North

America

53.1 642 83

Europe 37.2 (-30%) 348 (-46%) 107 (+29%)

Asia 35.8 (-33%) 234 (-64%) 153 (+84%)

*Data: Airports Council International (2008)

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Observations on US Airports

Heavy reliance on large capacities (as measured by aircraft

movements); most airports have multiple runways (3 – 7)

Practically no slot controls (airlines may add flights anywhere

at any time of day)

US FAA capacity benchmarks (2004): 35 busiest airports

– 26 of 35: VMC capacity > 100/hour; range: 56 – 279

– 16 of 35: IMC capacity > 100/hour; range: 48 – 193

– 12 of 35: Plan new runway by 2013

Only three (!) non-US airports currently have a declared

capacity of more than 100/hour – a few more within next 5-10

years

Unexpected(?) consequences:

– Airlines compete on frequencies (“RJ phenomenon”)

– Small number of passengers per movement

– Large delays, unreliability of schedules

Average Delay Relative to Schedule by Time-of-Day:

34 Busiest US Airports (All Arrivals, 2007)

99

• Delay increases during day in both VFR and IFR weather

• Estimated cost to US economy ~ $31 billion

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Observations on Asian Airports

Relatively small number of runways per airport and thus

smaller airport capacities, as measured by the number of

aircraft movements

Reliance in many Master Plans on expectation of large

and increasing number of passengers per movement

But this assumption is proving very wrong!

– Rapid growth in short-haul regional + domestic traffic

– Rapid growth of low-cost carriers (overwhelmingly

using narrow-body aircraft)

– Increasing use of hubbing

Several estimates of ultimate annual passenger capacity

are proving over-optimistic due to lack of runway

capacity

Hong Kong (HKG)

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Hong Kong: 2 independent parallel

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Example: Hong Kong International

Opened in 1998; two independent parallel runways

Airport passenger capacity:

– was forecast as 87 million to be reached in 2030-40

– based on forecast of 348 passengers per movement by

2040

BUT: average number of passengers per movement has

declined steadily from 174 in 1999 to 149 in 2014

– Reason: rapid growth of domestic traffic in China and of

hubbing in Hong Kong

Result: Capacity is now estimated as ~ 70 million!

In 2014 the airport already served 60 million pax. (Will

probably run out of capacity by 2018!)

The newly-approved third runway is extremely expensive

(US$17 billion!) and problematic.

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Hong Kong: Third Runway Project (March 2012)

Similarities with HKG, but with a huge difference

2013 Statistics (vs. 2010):

Two runways are insufficient to support future growth in

number of movements at either airport

But SIN already (almost) has a third runway, HKG does

not!

2014: Changi, 54.1 mio pax, 341K mvts, 158.4 pax/mvt Page 15

Passengers

(million)

Movements

(thousands)

Pax/Mvt

Changi 53.7 (+28%) 344 (+30%) 156 (-3)

Hong Kong 59.9 (+19%) 372 (+21%) 159 (-3)

Where Do We Stand?

Traffic at Changi Airport has continued to grow quickly in

past decade (~ 5% per annum since 2000, both pax and

movements; faster in 2012 and 2013, slow in 2014)

No. of passengers per flight will increase(?) slowly over time

(about 1 per year) [worldwide trend since 2000; IATA] Page 16

Passengers (mio) Movements (thou) pax / movt

2000 28.6 184 155

2005 32.4 204 159

2010 42.0 264 159

2012 51.2 325 158

2013 53.7 344 156

2014 54.1 341 159

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Observations on European AirportsPersistently fast-growing demand since 1993 (until recently), exceeding predictions

Limited increase in runway capacities of airports, despite airline behavior increasingly imitating the “American model”

Heavy reliance on administrative slot allocation

– 17 major airports already receiving more slot requests per week than total weekly capacity

Grandfather rights in slot allocation give strong advantage to former and current “flag carriers” at the most desirable airports

Possibly world’s most problematic region in terms of long-term ability to match capacity to demand, due to ambivalent government attitudes toward infrastructure expansion

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Generalizations: Major Airports...

North America: Large volumes of pax and aircraft;

overwhelmingly domestic; numerous regional jets,

general aviation; small no. of pax/flight

Europe: Growing passenger volumes at major

airports; primarily international (but Schengen treaty);

few g.a. flights; intermediate no. of pax/flight

East Asia/Pacific Rim/Middle East: Fastest-growing

passenger volumes; strongest presence of wide-body

jets; very few g.a. flights; large no. of pax/flight, but

not growing in East Asia; many new low-fare carriers

South America: Rapid recent growth of traffic; no

mega-airports yet; often hard to expand airside

Diversity is enormous; understanding of local factors

is essential.

Questions? Comments?

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