AIRO All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Economy
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Transcript of AIRO All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Economy
1
All-Island AtlasWorkshop 1 –
Economy & Labour Force
Justin Gleeson
Cavan 30/01/14Cavan, 30/01/14
Outline
• Labour Market
• Participation and Unemployment Rates
• Industry of Employment
• Occupations
• FDI and SMEs
• Where we work• Where we work
2
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status (Q3, 2013)
RoI (‘000) NI (‘000) AI (‘000)
P 15+/16+ 3 592 8 1 430 5 022 8Pop 15+/16+ 3,592.8 1,430 5,022.8
Labour Force 2,182.1 868 3,050.1
Employed 1,899.3 803 2,702.3
Unemployed 282.9 65 347.9
Non-Labour Force 1,410.7 562 1,972.7
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
Unemployment Rate 13% 7.5% 11.4%
Participation Rate 60.7% 60.7% 60.7%
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Participation Rate 2002 to 2013
66.0
60.6 60.8
61.6
63.1
63.9
64.764.2
62.3
61.0
60.4
60.259.9
59.458.8 60.0 59.9 59.8
58 9
59.7
61.3
61.5
60.7
59.0
60.0
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.0
65.0
rtic
ipat
ion
Rat
e P
op 1
5+/1
6+
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
58.9
55.0
56.0
57.0
58.0
Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013
ILO
Par
RoI NI AI
3
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Participation Rate 2002 to 2013
75.0
60.6 60.8 61.6
63.163.9
64.7 64.2
62.361.0
60.4 60.259.9 59.458.8
60.0 59.8 59.9 59.858.9
59.7
61.3 61.5
60.7
68.1
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
arti
cip
atio
n R
ate
Pop
15+
/16+
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
53.6
45.0
50.0
Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013
ILO
Pa
RoI NI AI AI Male AI Female
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013
– ILO Unemployment must satisfy three conditions: not working in the
previous week, available for work, and actively looking for work
12.9
14.115.1 15.0
13.0
11.410.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
mp
loym
ent
Rat
e
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)
4.44.9
4.4
4.6 4.8 4.7
7.1
5.7 5.9 5.2
4.2 4.2 4.5
6.67.6
6.97.8 7.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013
ILO
Un
em
RoI NI AI
4
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• International Comparisons - Unemployment Rate Sept/Aug 2013
27 630.0
27.626.6
17.2 17.116.3
14.0 13.6 13.112.5 12.2 11.9
11.3 11.1 11.010.4 10.2 10.1
8 910.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Un
emp
loym
ent
Rat
e
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)
8.98.3 8.1 8.0 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.0 7.0
6.4 5.95.2 4.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
ILO
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013 – Male v Female
20.0
5 7
7.6
14.0
15.1 15.3 15.4
13.3
7.8
8.99.7 9.9
9.18.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
plo
ymen
t R
ate
-M
ale
v F
emal
e
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force
5.05.7
5.1 4.8 5.1 4.9
4.4 4.33.8 4.0
4.4 4.24.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013
ILO
Un
emp
AI Male AI Female
5
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Long term Unemployed
– Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed
35 5
46.4
56.9
62.5
59.0
37.3
42.538.1
47
40.3
39.842.7
45
48.551.4
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
nem
plo
ymen
t R
ate
29.4
35.5 34.3 34.3
30.1
29.4
24.0
33.429.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
2002Q2 2003Q2 2004Q2 2005Q2 2006Q2 2007Q2 2008Q2 2009Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2
Lon
g te
rm U
n
Ireland Northern Ireland United Kingdom EU 28
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Long term Unemployed
– Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed
70.7
65.5 65.1
59.056.4 56.1 55.7
51.449.5 49.3 48.8 48.5 47.1 47.0 47.0 46.3 45.4 44.4 42.8 42.2 42.1 40.8 40.2
37.3 36.5 36.1
28.725 230.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
empl
oym
ent
Rat
e -
Q2,
201
3
25.2 24.4
17.1 16.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Lon
g te
rm U
ne
6
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Unemployment Rate at Regional Level – NUTS III
18 720.0
18.7
17.417.0
16.015.1
13.7
12.4 12.3
9.6 9.2
8.0
6.0
4.86.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
mp
loym
ent
Rat
e -
NU
TS
III
0.0
2.0
4.0
ILO
Un
em
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III
245.7
331.8
257.7274.7
172.4
222.2
265.0
152 0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
e '0
6 to
'12-
NU
TS
III
152.0
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
+/-
in U
nem
plo
ymen
t R
at
7
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III
32 7 34 0
99.9
52.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
men
t R
ate
'06
to '1
2-N
UT
S I
II
32.7 34.0
25.1
0.0
20.0
+/-
in U
nem
plo
ym
Labour Market – Mapping at Local Level
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
• Local level unemployment analysis
– Census NI: ILO (three conditions – not working previous week,
available and looking for work)
– Census RoI: Principal Economic Status (single census question: at work,
unemployed, homemaker etc)
• Re-classification undertaken by CSO to adjust PES unemployment rates to
ILO rates
– PES V ILO from Regional level QNHS results (2002 and 2011)
– 2002 Census results available for PES and ILO at ED level
» 2011 ED PES/ILO distribution
» Translated PES to ILO of every SA within parent ED
8
Labour Market - Unemployment
• 2011 ILO (NI) v PES (RoI)
• NI: 6.9%
• RoI: 19%
Labour Market - Unemployment
• 2011 ILO (NI) v ILO (RoI)
• NI: 6.9%
• RoI: 15%
9
Labour Market - Unemployment
Labour Market - Unemployment
10
Labour Market - Unemployment
Male Female
Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
• General Industrial Classification of Economic Activity – NACE Rev 2
– Industry of where a person is engaged
– Occupation deals with particular work performed
• Small Area level data
– Northern Ireland – NACE Rev 2
– Republic of Ireland – NACE Rev 1 (time series)
» Reclassifed by CSO to NACE Rev 2
18 C t i (i l di ‘Oth ’)– 18 Categories (including ‘Other’)
» Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale/Retail,
IT&Comm, Finance, Defence/Police, Education, Health, Transport.......
– Residence based, not type of industry in an area
» POWSCAR, Origin-Destination
11
Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
• 2.6m in employment on the island in 2011
– 1.8m RoI (70%)
– 795k NI (30%)
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
mp
loym
ent,
201
1
0
50000
100000
150000
Ind
ust
ry o
f E
m
Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
• 2.6m in employment on the island in 2011
– 1.8m RoI (70%)
– 795k NI (30%)
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
f E
mp
loym
ent,
201
1
0
2
4
6
Indu
stry
of
NI RoI
12
Industry of Employment
• Retail & Wholesale etc
• NI: 139,384 (17.5%)
• RoI: 262,206 (14.5%)
• All-Island: 401,590 (16%)
– More people work in this this sector than
any other
• Cities not the highest!
• Newtownabbey, Coleraine, Craigavon
d Li b th hi h t 19%and Lisburn the highest >19%
• Dublin City, DLR the lowest
Industry of Employment
• Retail & Wholesale etc
• Dublin v Belfast
13
Industry of Employment
• Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
• NI: 17,822 (2.2%)
• RoI: 91,526 (5%)
• All-Island: 109,348 (4.3%)
– Big increase in Agri jobs in RoI,
+10% since 2006
– Cavan, Monaghan and S-Tipp the
highest
M l d St b hi h t i NI– Moyle and Strabane highest in NI
Industry of Employment
• Construction
• NI: 65,059 (8.2%)
• RoI: 87,371 (4.8%)
• All-Island: 152,430 (6.1%)
– Major drop off in RoI since ‘06
• Decline of 125k jobs (-58% )
– Magherafelt, Limavady and Newry
highest >13%
– Monaghan, Wexford, Meath and
Cavan highest in RoI
14
Industry of Employment
• Information and Communications
• NI: 20,267 (2.5%)
• RoI: 68,531 (3.8%)
• All-Island: 88,798 (3.5%)
– Change in this sector
• Telecomms -20%
• Computer related +14.5%
– Very strong linkages with cities and
commuter areas
Industry of Employment
15
Industry of Employment
• Manufacturing
• NI: 77,072 (9.7%)
• RoI: 183,692 (10.2%)
All I l d 260 764 (10 4%)• All-Island: 260,764 (10.4%)
– Some areas very dependent on this
sector
• Dungannon, Waterford (City and
County), Craigavon and
CookstownCookstown
• Parts of Donegal, Limerick/Kerry,
Monaghan
Industry of Employment
• Professional, scientific and technical
• Legal, Accounting, Technical
consultancy, R&D, Advertising etc
• NI: 4.6% (36,277)
• RoI: 5.1% (60,716)
• All-Island: 4.9% (129,145)
– High concentrations in cities
• DLR, Dublin City, Belfast, Wicklow
and North Down the highestand North Down the highest
16
Industry of Employment
Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
• Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
– Modifications to adjust the Irish labour market conditions
– Occupation classification is determined by the kind of work he/she
performs
» Nature of the industry/business/service has no bearing on
classification
» ‘Clerk’ covers a person employed in manufacturing, commerce,
banking, public admin etc
• Persons ‘At Work’ by Occupation in NI
• Persons ‘At Work’ or ‘Unemployed’ by Occupation in RoI
– Re-classified for ‘At Work’ only
– Some confidentiality issues, data compressed at SA level
17
Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
• Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
– Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
up
atio
n, 2
011
0
50000
100000
150000
Occ
u
Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
• Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
– Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’
10
15
20
25
pat
ion
, 201
1
0
5
Occ
up
RoI
NI
18
Occupations
• Managers, Directors & Senior Officials
• NI: 8% (63,900)
• RoI: 9.1% (152, 440)
• All-Island: 8.7% (216,340)
– Mostly living in close proximity to Dublin
and Belfast
• DLR, Wicklow, Fingal, Kildare, North
Down, Lisburn
Occupations
19
Occupations
• Professional Occupations
• NI: 17.2% (136,406)
• RoI: 19.5% (325, 832)
• All-Island: 18.75% (462, 238)
– Highest Occupation grouping
• 8 Districts/Counties > 20%
– More urban centre based with highest rates
in DLR, Galway City, Dublin City, Belfast,
Cork City
– Also high in commuter areas
Occupations
20
Occupations
• Skilled Trades
• NI: 14% (111,502)
• RoI: 15 4% (256 212)• RoI: 15.4% (256,212)
• All-Island: 14.9% (367,714)
– Largest rural occupation grouping
• 21 Districts/Counties > 20%
– Cavan, Kerry, Monaghan, Magherafelt,
Mayo, Cookstown the highestMayo, Cookstown the highest
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• IDA Ireland (762 companies)
– 346 (45%) located in Dublin346 (45%) located in Dublin
» 388 (51%) located in GDA
– 101 (13%) in Cork
– 63 (8.3%) located in Border region
» ¼ of these in Louth
(830 i )• Invest NI (830 companies)
– Includes RoI companies 275 (33%)
– No location data available as yet
– IDBR (£££)
21
SMEs
• Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
• Small <50 employees
• Medium 50 to < 250 employees
• RoI
• 189,753 SMEs in 2010
– 98.7% Small
– 1.27% Medium
• NI
• 67,765 SMEs in 2012
– 98.5% Small
– 1.5% Medium
SMEs
• Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
• Small <50 employees
• Medium 50 to < 250 employees
• RoI
• 189,753 SMEs in 2010
– 98.7% Small
– 1.27% Medium
• NI
• 67,765 SMEs in 2012
– 98.5% Small
– 1.5% Medium
22
Travel to Work• POWSCAR
• Place of Work, School or College Census of Anonymised Records
• 2.78m O-D trips– 1.01m students
– 1.77m workers
• SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED
• Catchments to Cities/Towns
– 457k working in Dublin City
Travel to Work
• POWSCAR• Place of Work, School or College
Census of Anonymised Records
• 2.78m O-D trips– 1.01m students1.01m students
– 1.77m workers
• SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED
• Catchments to Cities/Towns
– 457k working in Dublin City
– Catchments to Meath Towns
• Destinations in NI (6,419)
– 250m grid/OA/WARDg
» Derry/Londonderry 40%
» Newry City 6%
» Enniskillen 4%
» Strabane 4%
» Belfast City 7.5%
24
Launch of Mapping Toolkit
• Launch of digital All-Island Atlas
• Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site
• Continued development and additional layers
Launch of Mapping Toolkit
• Launch of All-Island Atlas
• Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site
• AIRO Data Store
25
Data Days - QGIS
6th March – Planning
3rd April – Economy
Two additional open invite days at AIRO, NUIM
Hard back Atlas
Housing seminar (NUIM), Health seminar (CCBS), Deprivation (NUIM)