AIRO & ICLRD All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Demography

1

All-Island AtlasWorkshop 1

Justin Gleeson

Cavan, 30/01/14

Outline

• Population

• Age Cohortsg

• Dependency Rate

• Religion

• Ethnicity

Pl f Bi h• Place of Birth

2

Population

• 6.4 million people living on the island (2011)

• 72% in RoI (4.58m)

• 28% in NI (1.81m)

D f 27% f 1841 t t l f 8 17• Decrease of 27% from 1841 total of 8.17m

• -42% RoI

• +9% NI

RoI, 4,588,2525,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

NI, 1,810,863

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1926 1951 1961 1971 1981* 1991* 2001/02 2011

Population

• 10 year Inter-censal change

• Increase NI: 1901-1911 onwards

• Increase RoI: 1961-1971 onwards

RoI: 17.1%

NI: 7.5%

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1926 1951 1961 1971 1981* 1991* 2001/02 2011

3

Population

• Population Change 2001/02 to 2011

• All-Island +14.25% from 5.6m to 6.4m (+798, 656)

• RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m (+671,049)

– Natural Increase: 357, 426 (53%)

– Est. Net Migration: 313,623 (47%)

• NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m (+125,596)

– Natural Increase: 99,192 (79%)

– Est. Net Migration: 26,404 (21%)

Population



– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m

– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m

11 0 11 2 11 8 12.4 13.5 14.7 15.0 15.317.1 17.8 17.8 18.7 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.9 20.5 20.7

22.3 23.1 23.324.6 25.5

28.3 29.4

37.1 37.439.5

20

30

40

50

ulat

ion

Cha

nge,

01

to 1

1

-6.3-3.1

4.86.4 7.5

9.8 11.0 11.2 11.8 12.4

-10

0

10Pop

4

Population



– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m

– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m

10.5 10.6

13.2 13.614.3

15.316.1

16.8

21.2

15

20

25

Cha

nge,

01

to 1

1

1.1 1.32.7

3.4 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.9

6.4 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.4

9.2 9.3 9.410.5 10.6

0

5

10

Pop

ulat

ion

C

Population



– RoI +17.2% from 3.9m to 4.58m

– NI +7.45% from 1.68m to 1.81m

30

40

50

hang

e, 0

1 to

11

-10

0

10

20

Pop

ulat

ion

Ch

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Population Change

• It’s mostly growth ….

• Commuter belts of all cities

• But not all growth….g

• 22% of EDs/Wards witnessed

population decline since 2001/02

• Mainly rural decline

• Lots of urban decline too

Population Change

6

Population Change

Population Change

7

Population – Age Cohorts

• Very different age profile between

two jurisdictions

• RoI has much higher rate in young

population, early working age and

lower old age


• Very different age profile between

two jurisdictions

• RoI has much higher rate in young

population, early working age and

lower old age

• Lot of change since 2001

– RoI: Increase in young

population and working p p g

populations, Big decrease in 15-

25 year olds

– NI: Decrease in young

populations, increases towards

the elderly age groups

8


• All-Island v EU27

• 1.27% of total population

• Much younger population, age

40+ sees a shift towards higher EU

rates

Population – Birth Rates

• Birth Rates 2011

• Highest birth rate in EU27

– RoI: 16.2 per 1,000 inhabitants

– NI: 14 per 1,000 inhabitants

10 6 10 7 10.8 10.9 11 11.1 11.3 11.311.6 11.8

12.6 12.8

14

16.2

12

14

16

18

Bir

th R

ate.

201

1

8.1

8.8 9 9.1 9.2 9.39.6 9.6 9.6 9.7

10 10 10.1 10.110.4 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.8

6

8

10Cru

de

9

Population – Age Cohorts (0-14)

• Population 0-14

• NI: 354k (19.6%)

• RoI: 979k (21.3%)

• All-Island: 1.33m (20.9%)

– High rates in new commuter zones

– Lower in urban centres


10


• Population 15-24

• NI: 252k (13.9%)

• RoI: 580k (12.6%)

• All-Island: 832k (13%)

– Higher rates in NI, west of the

jurisdiction

– Distinct hot-spots in cities related to 3rd

level education locations


11



• NI: 498k (27.5%)

R I 1 45 (31 6%)• RoI: 1.45m (31.6%)

• All-Island: 1.94m (30.4%)

– Largest population cohort

– Working population, highest rates both

commuter zones and close to main

employment zones (urban core in Dublinemployment zones (urban core in Dublin,

Belfast)


12



• NI: 442k (24.5%)

R I 104k (22 7%)• RoI: 104k (22.7%)

• All-Island: 1.48m (23.2%)

– Higher rates in NI

• Highest 7 Districts all in NI

– Higher rates are generally in rural areas and

ld b bolder suburban areas


13

Population – Age Cohorts (65 plus)

• Population 65plus

• NI: 263k (14.6%)

R I 535k (11 7%)• RoI: 535k (11.7%)

• All-Island: 799k (12.5%)

– Smallest population age cohort

– Very clear rural/peripheral patterns

– Highest 9 districts are in NI

Population – Age Cohorts (65 plus)

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Population – Dependency Rates

• Dependency Ratio is the population 65+

(retired) and population 0-14 (children)

expressed as a % of 15-64 (economicallyexpressed as a % of 15 64 (economically

active)

• NI: 51.9%

• RoI: 49.3%

• All-Island: 50%


• Young Dependency Ratio is the population

0-14 (children) expressed as a % of 15-64

(economically active)(economically active)

• NI: 29.7%

• RoI: 31.9%

• All-Island: 31.3%

15


• Old Dependency Ratio is the population

65+ (retired) expressed as a % of 15-64

(economically active)(economically active)

• NI: 22.1%

• RoI: 17.4%


Religion

• Census Questions

• RoI

– What is your religion?What is your religion?

• NI:

– What religion do you belong to?

– What religion were you brought

up in?

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Religion

• Census Questions

• RoI

– What is your religion?What is your religion?

• NI:

– What religion do you belong to?

– What religion were you brought

up in?

Religion

• All-Island

– Catholic

– Other Christian (Presbyterian, Church of Ireland, Methodist)

– Other Religion (Orthodox, Islam, Other, Not Stated)

– No Religion84.2

60

70

80

90

40.8 41.6

7.610.1

5.5 4.4 5.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

Catholic Other Christian Other Religion No Religion

NI

RoI

17

Religion - Catholics

• Catholics

• NI: 40.8%

• RoI: 84.2%


– Lowest rates in RoI in Dublin/East coast,

Galway City

– Carrickfergus, Ards, North Down all less

than 12%

O h D d N hi h t i NI– Omagh, Derry and Newry highest in NI >

65%

Religion - Catholics

18

Religion – Other Christian

• Other Christian

• NI: 41.6%

• RoI: 5.5%


– Donegal, Wicklow, Monaghan and Cavan

with highest rates in RoI (8-9%)

• High rates also along east coast and

south-west

Religion – Other Christian

19

Religion – Other Religions

• Other Religions

• NI: 7.4%

• RoI: 4.4%


– Highest rates in Belfast, Newry and

Mourne, Derry and Dublin City

Religion – Other Religions

20

Religion – No Religion

• No Religion

• NI: (10.1%)

• RoI: (5.9%)RoI: (5.9%)

• All-Island: (7.1%)

– Highest rates in North Down, Carrickfergus

and Ards

– Border counties/districts with lower rates

Religion – No Religion

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Ethnicity

• Ethnicity

• Re-classified by CSO

• White, Irish Traveller, Black, Asian, Other/Mixed

Ethnicity

• Ethnicity

• Re-classified by CSO

• White, Irish Traveller, Black, Asian, Other/Mixed

98.293.6

60

70

80

90

100

0.1 0.2 1.1 0.50.7 1.4 1.9 0.90

10

20

30

40

50

White Irish Traveller Black Asian Other

NI

RoI

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Ethnicity - White

• White

• NI: 98.2%

• RoI: 93 6%• RoI: 93.6%


Ethnicity – Irish Traveller

• Irish Traveller

• NI: 0.1% (1,301)

• RoI: 0.7% (29,495)

• All-Island: 0.48% (30,796)

– Travellers living in only 17% of Small

Areas across the island

– High rates in Tuam, Rathkeale, Athlone

urban areas and Dublin periphery

• Galway County, Longford, Galway City

with highest rates

23

Ethnicity - Black

• Black

• NI: 0.2% (3,616)

• RoI: 1 4% (65 078)RoI: 1.4% (65,078)


– Highest rates are in Fingal, Galway City,

South Dublin and Louth

– Very clear spatial distribution in Dublin

City – periphery locationsy p p y

– Dungannon highest in NI (27/60)

Ethnicity - Black

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Ethnicity - Asian

• Asian

• NI: 1.1% (19,130)

• RoI: 1.9% (84,690)RoI: 1.9% (84,690)

• All-Island: 1.6% (103,820)

– Highest in all cities

• Dublin, Galway, Belfast all > 2%

• Central locations in cities

Ethnicity - Asian

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Place of Birth

• Place of Birth codes

• NI: RoI, UK Countries, 7 EU countries, 7 African, 13 Asian, Other

• RoI: Ireland UK Poland Lithuania Other EU27 Rest of WorldRoI: Ireland, UK, Poland, Lithuania, Other EU27, Rest of World

• All-Island: RoI, NI, Rest of UK, Pol, Lithuania, Rest of EU27, Rest

of World

Place of Birth

• Place of Birth codes

• All-Island: RoI, NI, Rest of UK, Pol, Lithuania, Rest of EU27, Rest of World

88.8

83.1

60

70

80

90

100

2.14.6

1.1 0.4 1 21.35.1

2.5 0.8 2.64.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

RoI NI Rest UK Pol Lit Rest EU27 ROW

NI

RoI

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Place of Birth - RoI

• PoB - RoI

• NI: 2.1% (37,872)

• RoI: 83 1% (3 758m)• RoI: 83.1% (3.758m)

• All-Island: 59.9% (3.796m)

– Highest rates living in NI are in border

areas: Fermanagh, Strabane, Newry, Derry

• 4 to 7%

Place of Birth - NI

• PoB - NI

• NI: 88.8% (1.608m)

• RoI: 1 3% (58 470)• RoI: 1.3% (58,470)

• All-Island: 26.3% (1.667m)

– Border counties in RoI with highest rates

• Donegal , Monaghan and Louth the

highest with rates 6-8%

27

Place of Birth – Rest of UK

• PoB – Rest of UK

• NI: 4.6% (83,517)

• RoI: 5 1% (230 157)• RoI: 5.1% (230,157)

• All-Island: 5% (313,674)

– Highest rates in Mayo, Leitrim, Donegal,

North Down and Roscommon >8%

– Very clear spatial pattern in rural /

peripheral / holiday destinationsp p y

• South-East, East Clare, Upper Shannon

Place of Birth – Outside Ireland/UK

• PoB – Outside Ireland/UK

• NI: 4.5% (80,621)

• RoI: 10 6% (478 143)• RoI: 10.6% (478,143)

• All-Island: 8.8% (558,764)

– Highest rates in main cities and urban areas

• Galway City, Fingal and Dublin City >16%

• Highest in NI is Dungannon 10.3%

• Belfast only 6.5%

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Place of Birth – Outside Ireland/UK

Place of Birth - Poland

• Poland

• Major influx in last decade, now highest

non-national group in RoInon national group in RoI

• NI: 1.1% (19,658)

• RoI: 2.5% (115,193)

• All-Island: 2.1% (134,851)

– Mostly concentrated in urban centres across

the island

– District spatial pattern in main cities

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Place of Birth - Poland

Thanks

Questions?

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AIRO & ICLRD All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Demography

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Transcript of AIRO & ICLRD All Island Atlas Seminar 1: Demography