The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

July 2011 Results

The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator

2

The Emotional Recovery

• We have been reporting our monthly

Recovery Indicator since April 2009.

• We set out two years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards recovery

alongside our ‘economic progress’.

• Our tracking research has shown the

remarkable emotional strength of the Irish

people, who have consistently reported

‘happiness’ and ‘enjoyment’ as their two most

frequently experienced emotions.

• But we are still in recession – and the path to

recovery still lies some way ahead.

• We will help you along that path.

3

Timing Recovery

• All recessions end in recovery –

so will this one.

• The biggest forecasting challenge is timing:

when do we know the recession is over and

recovery has started?

• Amárach Research has developed the

Recovery Indicator to help us track the

economic cycle more closely.

• This report summarises the AIB-Amárach

Recovery Indicator results from April 2009

(when it began) to July 2011.

• The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during the period 11th-18th July 2011 inclusive.

Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs

4

A Matter of Measurement• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us

which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

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A Matter of Measurement

June‘11 46% July‘11 47%

June’11 28% July’11 28%

June’11 24% July’11 22%

June’11 2% July’11 3%

June’11 1% July’11 0%

• July 2011 saw little change in the public’s views on the current stage

of the economic cycle:

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• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100

(0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak).

• In July 2011, the Recovery Indicator stands at 20.3 – almost unchanged from June’s figure of 20.4.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09

Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '10

May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr '11

May June July

AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator

7

34%41%44% 42%43%46%48%

41%43%52%

41% 42%43% 42%42%

42%39%

31%26%18%

23%26%24%25%24%28%23%26%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59%65%

58% 60% 62%55%

51%

51%61%

55%54%52% 53%

54%55%

50% 46% 44% 33%41%

48%44%48%47%53%

47%48%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 1

8

48% 48%51% 47%48%48%46%45%45%50%

47% 43%47%45%

45%47%

46%41%41%

32%34%39%37%36%39%40%34%39%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

0

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

Recovery Outlook 2

59%

62% 61%60%61%60% 56%

52%

56%55%53% 55%

53%51%50%

55%

54%

53%

52% 45%45%49%45%47%48%50%44%49%

Ap

r '0

9

May

Ju

n

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r'10

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

Fe

b

Mar

Ap

r '1

1

May

Ju

ne

Ju

ly

Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly

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Percent of adults who agree with each statement: July 2009*, 2010, 2011 & June 2011

14% 20% 14% 17%

Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

64% 60% 62%

Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11

Now is a good time to buy a house for those

who want to

38%27% 25% 26%

Jul'09 Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

27% 23% 26%

Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11

I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 62% 59% 59%

Jul'10 Jun'11 Jul'11

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI Survey

* NB: debt & borrowing questions not asked in 2009

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The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to July 2011

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'10

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

'11

May

June

July

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

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The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to July 2011

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

0

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r '1

1

Ma

y

June

July

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

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Resilient Optimism

• The emotional mood of the nation continues to

demonstrate strong resilience.

• The experience of positive emotions (enjoyment,

happiness) has strengthened steadily since

November last year – in terms of the nation’s

‘psyche’ – whilst the hold of negative emotions

(worry, anxiety) has weakened.

• But it is still too early for changes in emotions to

translate into behavioural change: especially

consumer spending.

• However, if the present trends continue over the

remainder of the year, spending growth will follow.

• Stay tuned to future issues of the AIB-Amárach

Recovery Indicator to find out what happens...

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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill

Chairman

Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

telephone: (01) 410 5200

email: gerard.oneill@amarach.com

website: www.amarach.com

blog: www.amarach.com/blog

twitter: www.twitter.com/amarachresearch