AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2010

The Economic Recovery IndexAn Amárach Research Briefing

October Index Results

© Amárach Research 2009

April 2010 Results

The AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator

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Timing Recovery

• All recessions end in recovery – so will

this one

• The biggest forecasting challenge is

timing: when do we know the recession is

over and recovery has started?

• Amárach Research has developed the

Recovery Indicator to help us track the

economic cycle more closely

• This report summarises the Recovery

Indicator results for April 2009 (when it

began) to April 2010

• The fieldwork was conducted on 13th to

20th April 2010

Business Cycle Peaks & Troughs

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A Matter of Measurement

• Every month we survey a representative sample of 1,000 adults – split 850 online and

150 face-to-face to ensure coverage of the total population – and ask them to tell us

which statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’

• Each statement corresponds to a different stage in the economic cycle

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A Matter of Measurement

April’09 77% April’10 38%



April’09 1% April10 2%


• The general sense in April’10 remains very consistent with March ‘10, albeit with a marginal

increase in the recovery index. Similarly to March ‘10; when it comes to the economy, there is

still a divide between it is ‘bad but stable or improving’ and it is ‘bad and getting worse’.

AIB-Amárach Recovery Indicator

• Using the answers to the survey we have created the Recovery Indicator, which

ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = worsening recession; 100 = back to peak)

• The Recovery Indicator experienced its strongest monthly surge in January 2010,

more gradual growths are evident over the February to April periods.

8.3

16.317.8

1517

18.419.6

17.8 18.3

27.1

22.7 23.5 23.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr '10

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Recovery Outlook 1

34% 41% 44% 42% 43% 46% 48% 41% 43%52%

41% 42% 43%

Apr '09 May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10 Feb Mar Apr

Ireland will be through the worst of the recession in 12 months time: % agree strongly/slightly

57% 59% 65% 58% 60% 62% 55% 51% 51%61% 55% 54% 52%


I am optimistic in spite of the current economic situation: % agree strongly/slightly

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Recovery Outlook 2

48% 48% 51% 47% 48% 48% 46%45% 45% 50% 47% 43% 47%


I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession: % agree strongly/slightly

59% 62% 61% 60% 61% 60% 56%52%

56% 55% 53%55% 53%


Right now it seems like the recession is affecting other people more than it is affecting me: % agree strongly/slightly

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Financial Sentiment Indicators from the ARI SurveyPercent of adults who agree with each statement: March 2010 and April 2010 (unless otherwise stated)

16% 21%

April '09 April '10

I am more relaxed about spendingmoney than I was a few months ago

53%64%

April '09 April '10

Now is a good time to buy a house* for those who

want to

36%28%

April '09 April '10

I am saving a lot more than before because of

the recession

30% 31%

March '10 April '10

I would be happy to borrow from a bank if I

need to 61% 59%

March '10 April '10

Paying off debts is my main financial priority

Impact on:

•Spending

•Saving

•Debt

•Borrowing

* ‘a new house’ in 2009

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The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to April 2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr '10

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

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The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feeling a lot of the day yesterday?

April 2009 to April 2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Apr '09

May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '10

Feb Mar Apr '10

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

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Leading and Lagging the Recovery

Looking back a year to April 2009, there have been a number of key changes:

• A year ago, men were more confident than women that the economy was at a

turning point for the better – one year on and women are now more confident

than men (albeit both are considerably more confident than last year).

• Young people are much more optimistic than older people about the recovery

status of the economy, whereas 45-54 years olds remain less optimistic than

others, just as they did last year – but they too are in a better place a year on.

• Women are much more relaxed about spending money than a year ago, as

are young people – and both groups are key to driving consumer spending.

• The pressure to save and to pay down debts is still very strong, but here again

we have seen significant shifts in the past year, with a big fall in the percentage

of adults overall – and females in particular – who agree they are saving more

because of the recession; in the latter case from 41% to 27% in just twelve

months.

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Amárach Contact Details

Gerard O’Neill - Chairman

Amárach Research

11 Kingswood Business Centre

Citywest Business Campus

Dublin 24

T. (01) 410 5200

E. [email protected]

W. www.amarach.com

B. amarachresearch.blogspot.com

AIB Contact Details

Ronan Sheridan

Group Press Officer

AIB

Bankcentre

Ballsbridge

Dublin 4

T. (01) 641 4651

M. 086 388 0898

AIB Amárach Recovery Indicator April 2010

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