Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2014

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing

May 2014

© Amárach Research


Sell in May

Despite all the political noise in the

background, the Irish consumer has

remained quite stable in his and her

outlook in our May survey.

We have retained some of the features

from last month’s special anniversary issue

due to reader feedback – feel free to make

any other suggestions for improvement

and expansion of the Economic Recovery

Index.

The old investment adage is that you

should ‘sell in May and go away’ – but we

would suggest a different adage for sales

and marketing folk: ‘the mood in May is

here to stay’.


The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out five years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

May 2014.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 18th-24th May 2014 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website –

details at the end of this report.

Economic Recovery Index


Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index continued to ease back in May 2014, to start of the year levels:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, May 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'14

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

the ERI remains well above historic average levels as we approach mid-2014


A Matter of Measurement

Apr ’14: 23% May ’14: 24%

Apr ’14: 32% May ’14: 32%

Apr ’14: 35% May ’14: 36%

Apr ’14: 9% May ’14: 8%

Apr ’14: 1% May ’14: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is the lowest since we began:


ERI Summary Table

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

May-09 57 24 18 1 0 16.0

May-10 36 35 27 2 0 23.8

May-11 40 33 24 2 1 22.1

May-12 48 26 24 2 0 20.2

May-13 44 29 24 2 1 21.3

Apr-14 23 32 35 9 1 33.2

May-14 24 32 36 8 0 32.4

the positive outlook evident from late 2013 has continued into 2014 without abating


Uneven Recovery

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

(by sex, age, class, Dublin)


May 2014 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512

The economic situation

in Ireland is getting

worse

24% 20% 26% 17% 18% 26% 27% 25% 22% 18% 27%


is bad but has stabilized 32% 33% 29% 33% 39% 32% 28% 24% 28% 34% 28%


is bad but showing a

few signs of

improvement

36% 34% 35% 32% 31% 33% 36% 39% 36% 35% 34%


is getting better and

showing clear signs of

improvement

8% 11% 4% 8% 8% 6% 6% 10% 10% 10% 6%


is good and almost fully

recovered from the

recession

0% * 1% 1% 1% * 0 0 * * *

ERI Score 32.4 35.0 29.8 32.4 33.4 30.8 30.2 34.4 34.4 35.0 29.9

Consumer Impact


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

May-09 41 48 59 62

May-10 40 44 53 51

May-11 28 40 53 50

May-12 25 38 47 45

May-13 25 39 45 46

Apr-14 35 40 49 43

May-14 38 39 49 45

very gradually, we can see a more positive, though cautious outlook returning


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II


%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

May-09 15

May-10 19 26 61 28

May-11 17 26 61 26

May-12 18 27 56 27

May-13 18 24 56 24

Apr-14 24 24 56 26

May-14 23 23 59 25

if anything, consumers are using the low interest rate environment to pay off more debts


Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III


%

I always buy

the lowest

price products

or services

I am always on

the lookout for

opportunities to

switch to

cheaper

suppliers

I have more

choice than

before when it

comes to

products and

services

I always buy

Irish when I

can

Apr-13 57 71 52 52

May-13 58 69 54 54

Jun-13 55 70 55 51

Jul-13 56 70 52 53

Aug-13 57 70 53 53

Sep-13 59 72 53 54

Oct-13 58 69 52 51

Nov-13 56 69 55 51

Dec-13 54 68 54 53

Jan-14 59 74 56 54

Feb-14 56 70 57 52

Mar-14 57 68 56 48

Apr-14 56 69 54 50

May-14 60 72 55 51


Financially Resilient

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512

Strongly Agree 10% 12% 7% 7% 12% 11% 5% 12% 13% 15% 5%

Slightly Agree 29% 32% 27% 35% 33% 22% 23% 32% 32% 32% 26%

Neither/Nor 13% 16% 10% 17% 12% 14% 11% 14% 14% 14% 13%

Slightly Disagree 22% 19% 24% 21% 22% 23% 26% 17% 17% 21% 22%

Strongly Disagree 23% 18% 28% 15% 19% 27% 32% 21% 22% 16% 29%


Habitual Savers


“I am saving a lot more because of the recession”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512

Strongly Agree 10% 11% 9% 20% 14% 8% 7% 5% 13% 13% 7%

Slightly Agree 13% 14% 13% 20% 15% 14% 11% 9% 16% 14% 13%

Neither/Nor 19% 21% 17% 27% 18% 17% 12% 22% 24% 20% 18%




Faulting Debt


“My main financial priority is to pay of my debts as soon as possible”



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512

Strongly Agree 34% 31% 37% 24% 26% 39% 38% 40% 31% 35% 33%

Slightly Agree 25% 26% 24% 22% 30% 25% 27% 21% 26% 26% 24%

Neither/Nor 17% 19% 14% 26% 15% 16% 13% 17% 20% 16% 17%



Mood of the Nation


The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Ap

r '0

9M

ay

Jun

Jul

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'10

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'11

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'12

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'13

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Jun

eJuly

Au

gS

ept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

'14

Fe

bM

ar

Ap

rM

ay

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry


The Mood of the Nation 2


% saying Yes: April 2009 to May 2014


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Ap

r '0

9

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'10

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'11

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'12

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'13

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Se

pt

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan

'14

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger


Changing Moods



F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1001 499 502 136 243 209 171 242 297 489 512

Enjoyment 54% 54% 53% 55% 49% 52% 51% 60% 58% 61% 46%

Happiness 52% 51% 54% 59% 53% 53% 47% 51% 56% 58% 47%

Stress 44% 42% 45% 43% 51% 53% 46% 27% 44% 42% 46%

Worry 39% 36% 43% 39% 42% 47% 39% 31% 40% 35% 43%

Anxiety 31% 29% 32% 35% 38% 36% 26% 19% 33% 30% 31%

Boredom 27% 28% 26% 46% 33% 22% 26% 14% 30% 27% 27%

Physical Pain 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 24% 26% 34% 26% 20% 32%

Sadness 19% 16% 22% 19% 24% 20% 16% 16% 19% 17% 21%

Anger 18% 19% 18% 22% 24% 21% 17% 10% 20% 16% 21%

Fear 11% 11% 11% 14% 14% 13% 9% 5% 13% 8% 13%


% saying Yes: May 2014

Amárach Outlook


Leveraging Recovery

There is clear evidence from our ERI survey

that consumer resilience is evolving into a

more positive outlook.

This means that the rest of the year should

see clearer evidence of a willingness for

consumers to open their purses & wallets to

spend – even as they save & pay off debts.

We hope this edition of the Economic

Recovery Index has given you some food for

thought about the opportunities that lie ahead

over the remainder of 2014.

For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm

we ask better questions

so you get better answers

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Trends Report

e. [email protected]

t. 01 410 5200

w. www.amarach.com

b. www.amarach.com/blog

t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch

Amárach Economic Recovery Index May 2014

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