AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and...

AIACC Regional Study AS07

Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme

Hydrological due to Climate Change


Part 1: Introduction to AIACC regional study AS07

Part 2: What decision will you influence with the result of your project?

• What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use?

• What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence?

Part 3: Incorporate into framework


Area of study:Area of study: Mekong River BasinMekong River Basin

Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change


Climate Change Hydrological effects

Possible effects on the study area

• Temperatures• Precipitation• Windspeed/direction

• River flows, runoff• Frequency/magnitude of floods• frequency/magnitude of droughts

• altered water temperatures• altered water quality, modified nutrient content, increased salinity• altered water levels, water table• altered water availability, water storage capacity• flood patterns : reduced/increased flooding, altered flood timing• modified habitats, obstruction of migration routes


SectorPotential Impact

Adaptation Options

Adaptability Vulnerability*

Agriculture

Water resources

• reduced productivity

• rural / urban water supply constraints•saltwater intrusion•eutrophication

• management and policy changes

Low HighlyVulnerable

• alternative water supplies•water allocation and pricing•reduce nutrient flows




Adaptation Options

Adaptability

Aquatic ecosystems

Human settlements

• river and inland wetland ecosystem changes•wetland and biodiversity loss

• increased impacts of flood, storm surge, sea level rise

• physical interventions•increased protected areas and wildlife refuge


• relief aids•zoning and disaster planning•warning system


Vulnerability*



Adaptation Options

Adaptability

Human Health

• increased spread of vector-borne diseases

• quarantine, eradication, control

Medium to Low

ModeratelyVulnerable

* A Report of Working Group II of the IPCC.

Vulnerability*


What decision will you influence with the result of your project?

• Extending the length of policy planning to cope with the climate change• Broaden the aspect of the policy development

• Various possibilities and frame of thought in policy development

process• Stakeholders involvement in the policy making process• Multi-level and multi sector awareness on the impact from climate change• Water Governance concept


What are the key analyses that you will undertake to achieve this and what methods will you use?

• Matching the timescale of the climate change study onto the policy planning

process• Using of various socio-economic scenarios from the study of the impact from

climate change into the adaptation planning activities• Engage all possible stakeholders into the policy development process

• Participatory method for vulnerability assessment • Using the concept of the “Policy community”

• Vulnerability mapping as well as other scientific tools/analytical tools and

methods• Resource management under climatic and hydrological variability


What will you incorporate into your project from the workshop that will add to the value of your project for the decision makers that you intend to influence?

• Various tools and methods• Scenario generating tools• Water management software • GIS based vulnerability map• Adaptation method/measurement• Etc.

• Frame of thought• Constructive way of building up socio-economic scenarios• Development of the framework for the future study in V&A

• Necessity of the stakeholders involvement in the policy making process –

stakeholder analysis and “Policy Community” • Linking the scientific finding to the policy making


Incorporate into frameworkIncorporate into framework


Climate scenarios

Climate Modeling Technique

Land use/cover scenariosHydrology Modeling Technique

Runoff profiles Runoff profiles Runoff profiles

Precipitation


Water profile maps GIS toolsRemote sensing tools

Hot spot/Hot issues selectionPossible vulnerable areas:• Flood in the lower Mekong basin• Impact on the rain fed agriculture• Impact on the wetland – human livelihood/biodiversity• Impact on water utilization• Possible outbreak of certain decease• Etc.

Policy maker & stakeholders engagement

- Stakeholders analysis- Build awareness of impact from CC- Capacity building- Vulnerability map

Vulnerability potential maps


Agriculture

Risk analysis: sample case of flood – GIS tools, Scenario generator tools, Stakeholders analysis, Participatory method - Stakeholders participation, etc.

2020 2040 2060

Demographic

Infrastructure

Etc.

Different scenarios at different time

Overlay on Flood Risk Map/Inundation map


Coping range/Adaptive capacity assessment

• Historical data analysis• Participatory method

Vulnerability Assessment • Participatory method • Multi-criteria analysis

Vulnerability Maps GIS tools


Adaptation Plan DevelopmentParticipatory method“Policy Community”

Adaptation OptionsLong term policy• Multi-criteria analysis• Cost-benefit analysis• Etc.


Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan):

1. 14-km resolution monthly climate scenario (e.g., temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall) for the Mekong River Basin;

2. 2. 1-km resolution monthly runoff, routed water discharge, water level and soil moisture for the Mekong Basin under different climate and land cover scenarios;

3. Hydrological simulation tool to enhance local capacity to develop local adaptation strategies and policies;

4. Regional maps of vulnerabilities of different water related aspects to climate and land cover changes;


Expected Products and Outputs (preliminary plan):

5. Adaptation strategies and options for some communities and economic sectors will be affected by global climate change in Mekong River Basin;

6. Generalized adaptation strategies and options for countries in the Mekong River Basin to cope with Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change

Discussion Session

Thank You

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and...

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