Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to

Climate Change in (AIACC)

Neil Leary

Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on

Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment

July 29 - August 7, 2002

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Implementing, Executing & Collaborating Agencies

• UN Environment Programme (UNEP)• Global SysTem for Analysis, Research

and Training (START)• Third World Academy of Sciences

(TWAS)• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC)

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AIACC Funding Sources

• Global Environment Facility (GEF)• Canadian International

Development Agency (CIDA)• US Environmental Protection

Agency (USEPA)

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AIACC Objectives

Advance scientific understanding Of climate change I, A & V in developing country regions.

Build and enhance scientific & technical capacity

In developing countries to investigate I, A & V and participate in international scientific assessments.

Generate and communicate information Useful for adaptation planning and action and for

preparation of National Communications under UNFCCC.

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AIACC Activities

• Peer reviewed grants for regional studies

• Project development & training workshops

• Regional workshops • Thematic workshops• Ongoing technical support & mentoring• Facilitation of peer review publication• Synthesis

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AIACC Regional Studies in N &W Africa

Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia

•Agriculture

•Water

•Historical impacts of variability

•Crop modeling future impacts

•Irrigation water S&D

•Adaptations

Sudan •Human settlements

•Agriculture

•Vulnerability to climatic hazards

•Food security

•Environmental mgt adaptations

Nigeria •Agriculture •Crop modeling future impacts

•Seasonal forecasts

Nigeria, Mali •Rural settlements

•Agriculture

•Vuln.of demog. groups to drought

•Impact thresholds, risk analysis

•Adaptations

West Africa

(0-30oN,

15oW-20oE)

•Climate •Diag. eval. of GCM projections

•Statistical & dynamical downscaling for W. Africa

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AIACC Regional Studies in Southern Africa

South Africa •Biodiversity •Predictive models of plant & animal responses to climate

•Adaptation to conserve biodiversity

Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania

•Agriculture

•Water

•Land-use

•Integrated assessment (MIMOSA)

•Primary focus on land-use

Botswana •Agriculture

•Water

•Land-use

•Present water, food conditions

•Int. Assess. of future impacts

•Adaptations

South Africa, Gambia

•Water

•Agriculture

•Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations

Sub-Saharan Africa

•Climate •Diag. eval. of GCM projections

•Stat. & dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa

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AIACC Regional Studies in AsiaMongolia •Agriculture

•Rangelands

•Water

•Trends in vulnerability to climate

•Modeling grassland, crop, water impacts

•Adaptations

Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam

•Water

•Aquatic/riparian ecosystems

•Vulnerability to hydrologic changes & extremes

•Adaptations

Sri Lanka •Plantation agriculture

•Model tea & coconut responses to climate variation & change

•Social & economic impacts

•Adaptations

Philippines, Indonesia

•Water

•Agriculture

•Ecosystems

•Land-use/cover changes, forest, water, agriculture impacts

•Social & economic impacts

•Adaptations

China •Water

•Agriculture

•Land-use

•IA to identify social vulnerabilities

•Multi-criteria evaluation of adaptatons

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AIACC Regional Studies in Latin America

Central America •Water

•Agriculture

•Coastal

•Vulnerabilities to extreme events & climate change

•Adaptations

Argentina, Uruguay

•Agriculture •Impacts on mixed grain/grazed agricultural systems

•Adaptations

Argentina, Uruguay

•Human settlements

•Coastal natural resources

•Vulnerabilities to tide floods, storm, sea level rise, climate change

•Adaptations

Uruguay •Estuarine ecosystem

•Fisheries

•Water

•Vulnerabilities of estuary & human uses

•Adaptations

Mexico, Argentina

•Agriculture

•Water

•Rural settlements

•Farm level analysis of risk mgt. And adaptation

•Effects of existing/past policies on vulnerabilities

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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands

Caribbean •Human Health •Investigate/model health responses to climate (dengue)

•Future health impacts of climate change

•Adaptations

Fiji, Cook Islands

•Water

•Coastal infrastructure

•Natural resources

•IAM, extended to include human dimensions

•Adaptations

Seychelles

Comoros

•Tourism

•Natural resources

•Direct impacts of climate change & SLR on tourism

•Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources

•Adaptations

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AIACC Regional Studies Highly Heterogeneous

• Not a research program with specific objectives, approaches, scenarios, models dictated from above

• Different objectives determine relative emphases of I, A, & V in the regional studies

• Objectives drive choices of approaches, methods, models, scenarios

• Choices are made by the regional study PIs and their teams

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Commonalities among regional studies

• All studies contribute to broad objectives of AIACC– Advance scientific understanding of I,A, & V– Build scientific/technical capacity– Generate & communicate information for

adaptation

• Each study addresses adaptation– Was a requirement in grant review & approval

• Most studies incorporate stakeholder participation

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Vulnerability vs. impact assessment

• Priority given to adaptation in AIACC, leading to emphasis on vulnerability in many of the studies

• Vulnerability: capacity to be harmed by a hazard (e.g. climate change)

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Two aspects of vulnerability

• Exposure to a hazard or set of hazards• Capacity of exposed individual,

community, system to– Anticipate– Cope with,– Resist and– Recover from

impacts of the hazard(s)

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Impact Assessment

• Tends to focus on exposure– Careful attention to scenarios of climate

change that characterize the hazards to which people/systems will be exposed.

• Capacities of people/systems not emphasized– Often simplistic, ad hoc treatment– Impact studies beginning to use multiple

socioeconomic scenarios to address

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Vulnerability Assessment

• Focuses on capacities of people, communities, systems that determine impacts of exposures– identify factors, processes that enhance or degrade

capacities– Shed light on effective adaptation

• Hazard exposure often characterized by incremental scenarios– Informed by GCM, RCM projections

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Common Ground for V & I Analyses

• VA needed to provide more sophisticated understanding & representation of– Capacities of people, communities, systems– Adaptation processes and effectiveness– Dimensions of the hazard that matter most

• Impact models can integrate info about capacities with “predicted” exposures– Quantitative estimates of impacts for different

scenarios of capacities and exposures– Quantitative risk analysis

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AIACC Synthesis

• Regional studies are expected to be completed by end of 2004.

• How can we synthesize work of 23 studies that– Ask different questions– Use different conceptual frameworks– Use different scenarios for climate, socioeconomic

etc– Use different methods and models?

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Mechanisms for synthesis

• Regional workshops• Thematic synthesis workshops• Public web-based information network

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AIACC Regional Workshops

• Two rounds of regional workshops planned– Feb-Apr 2003– Aug-Sept 2004

• Opportunity for study teams to– Present & discuss preliminary results with

other researchers in their region– Share expertise, collaborate to solve

common problems– Lay groundwork for synthesis

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AIACC Regional Workshops

• Develop broad cross-cutting questions on issues common to many individual studies– Distribute before 1st round of workshops, refine via

list-serve discussion– Ask teams to address the questions in their

presentations– Discuss commonalities, differences– Plan next steps

• Repeat process for 2nd round of workshops– Same questions?

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Thematic Synthesis Workshops*

• Series of 3 or 4 small workshops in 2005– Each to be focused on a cross-cutting

question or theme– Price of admission: a paper on the theme

• Objectives of each workshop– Present, discuss, revise individual papers– Write a joint synthesis paper– Publish individual & synthesis papers as

package

*Seeking financial support for these.

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Web-based Information Network

• AIACC regional study database– Ready access to information, data, results from each

regional study– Electronic working paper series

• Guided Web discussions– Develop, refine cross-cutting questions– Discussion of cross-cutting questions– Discussion of other issues (working papers, methods,

models, data, training opportunities etc)

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Illustrative cross-cutting questions

• Are there spatial, demographic or other patterns to who is vulnerable?

• What are the critical determinants of vulnerability to climate hazards now? Are they the same determinants for vulnerability to climate change in the future?

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Illustrative cross-cutting questions

• What trends are likely to diminish (enhance) future vulnerability to climatic hazards and climate change?

• What policies or adaptation strategies can lessen long-term vulnerability to climate change and near-term vulnerability to climatic hazards?