Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2008 U.S...
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Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2008 U.S. Department of Agriculture Brazilian Agribusiness Edilson Guimaraes
Transcript of Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2008 U.S...
Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21-22, 2008 U.S. Department of Agriculture
Brazilian Agribusiness
Edilson Guimaraes
EDILSON GUIMARÃES
Secretary of Agricultural Policy
Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply
February 22, 2008
BRAZILIAN AGRIBUSINESS
TOTAL GDP (2006): US$ 1.067 billion
JOBS (2006)37%
Agribusiness
TOTAL EXPORTS (2007): US$ 160.6 billion36.4%
Sources: CEPEA-USP/CNA, MAPA and IPEA
23%
Agricultural and Livestock
Production
38 38 36 39 39 37 37 35 37 38 38 40 44 47 49 47 46 4658
68
83
97
132
136
121
114
119123
100
827778
748176
68
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*
A r e a a n d P r o d u c t i o n
( m i l l i o n h a a n d t o n )
AREA
Grain Production
PRODUCTION
* Estimate
Source: Conab / MAPA
GRAINS: cotton, peanut, rice, oats, rye, barley, beans, sunflowers, castor bean, corn, soy, sorgum, wheat and triticale.
237%
61% 60%
104%
79%
Raw cotton Rice Beans Corn Soy
Average productivity growth(1991 and 2007)
Source: Conab / MAPA
Meat Production
10.6
5.2
3.4
9.8
3.0
1.3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
P r o d u c t i o n ( m i l l i o n t o n )
Sources: APINCO, ABEF, ABIEC and ABIPECS
Beef: 104%
Pork: 124%
Broiler: 188%
Sugar and Ethanol Production
Source: MAPA
29.1
7.4
20.5
11.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
m i l l i o n t o n a n d m
3
SUGAR
ETHANOL
Location of ethanol plants
Sources: NIPE-UNICAMP, IBGE and CTC
Elaboration: Unica
Plant in construction or in project
Current plant
AMAZON
PANTANAL
Sugar Cane Fields
Land use in Brazil
Area
Million ha %
Amazon Forest 360 42%
Pasture 210 25%
Yearly crops 49 6%
Perennial crops 15 2%
Cultivated forests 6 1%
Non exploited 101 12%
Cities 20 2%
Protect areas 52 6%
Others 38 4%
Total 851 100%
Sources: IBGE and Conab _ Adaptation: MAPA
Cerrado
“Savanna”
Livestock
Livestock Area Decrease - 63 million ha
* São Paulo
Sources: IBGE and IEA / SP
Potential Increase on Land Availability
Livestock Area Productivity Livestock Area Productivity*(million heads) (million ha) (head/ha) (million heads) (million ha) (head/ha)
206 210 0.98 206 147 1.4
2006 Estimate
Agricultural and Livestock
Sound Practices
SISBOVLivestock Traceability
Fruit Integrated Production
Organic Products
Safe Food Program
National System for theCertification of Warehouses
Food Quality
No Tillage
Agriculture/Livestock/Reforestation
Integration Program
Degraded pasture
Crop Livestock
Agricultural/Livestock/Reforestation Integration Program
Reforestation
Foreign Trade
Wood and Products
15.1%
Tobacco
3.9%
Cereal, Flour and
Products 3.8%
Fruit Juice 4.1%
Leather and
Products
6.1%Coffee
6.7%
Sugar and
Ethanol
11.3%
Others 7.7%Fiber and Textile
Products
2.7%
Beef
19.3%
Soy Complex
19.5%
Coffee5.6%
Leather and Products9.4%
Sugar and Ethanol9.1%
Wood and Products17.2%
Beef12.9%
Soy Complex24.2%
Others9.7%
Textile Products3.5%
Tobacco4.1%
Fruits Juice4.4%
Source: MAPA
Brazilian Agribusiness Exports (by value): Main Products
2002 2007
E.U-2537.3%
USA16.7%
ASIAEXCEPT
MIDDLE EAST and CHINA
11%
MIDDLE EAST6.3%
OCEANIA
0.4%
OTHERS14.5%
CHINA5.5%
AFRICA
5.4%
MERCOSUR
2.7%
USA11.0%ASIA EXCEPT MIDDLE
EAST and CHINA11.3%
MIDDLE EAST8.1%
CHINA8.0%
E.U-2735.8%
OTHERS15.9%
AFRICA6.5%
MERCOSUR3.0%
OCEANIA0.5%
Brazilian Agribusiness Exports (by value): Main Markets
Source: MAPA
20072002Total: US$ 24.8 billion Total: US$ 58.4 billion
58.4
49.4
43.6
39.0
30.6
24.823.920.6
8.7 6.7
5.2 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.8 5.8 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: MAPA
14.8
20.3
25.8
34.1
38.4
19.1
42.7
49.7
Agribusiness Trade Balance
(US$ billion)
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
SURPLUS
49.7
40.0
-9.7
-30-25
-20-15-10-505
1015
202530354045
50
8 0 8 1 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7
U S $ b i l l i o n
Source: MAPA
Brazil Trade Balance
TOTAL
AGRIBUSINESS
OTHERS
2002 2007 2002 2007
Suggar 89 115 2,093 5,100
Coffee 105 130 1,385 3,891
Orange Juice 50 73 1,041 2,252
Soy and products 82 83 6,006 11,381
Beef 107 150 1,144 4,424
Wood and Products 151 171 2,214 4,090
Ethanol 38 44 169 1,478
Broiler 102 153 1,393 4,620
Corn 27 39 260 1,882
Pork 48 77 486 1,230
Number of Markets Total Exports (US$ million)Main Products
BRAZIL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS
Source: MAPA
Concluding Remarks
ADVANTAGES CHALLENGES
� Competitiveness
� Entrepreneurship
� Research infrastructure on tropical agriculture
� Land and water availability
� Bio-energy production
� Infrastructure
� transportation
� storage
� seaports
� Limited financing resources
� Agricultural debit
� World economy scenario
