FAPRI World Agricultural Outlook - Iowa State … World Agricultural Outlook This publication...

FAPRI World Agricultural Outlook

This publication contains recent baseline projections produced by the Food and Agricultural PolicyResearch Institute (FAPRI) for the U.S. agricultural sector and international commodity markets. Theseprojections serve as a baseline for evaluating and comparing alternative macroeconomic, policy,weather, and technological scenarios. They are intended for use by farmers, government agencies andofficials, agribusinesses, and others who do medium-range and long-term planning.

FAPRI baseline projections are grounded on a series of assumptions about the general economy,agricultural policies, the weather, and technological change. The projections represent one possiblescenario, consistent with the set of selected assumptions. Macroeconomic assumptions are based onforecasts prepared by the WEFA Group and Project LINK. It is generally assumed that currentagricultural policies will be continued in the United States and other trading nations. The 1996Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform (FAIR) Act policies are incorporated in this baseline, noEU enlargement and no further CAP reforms are assumed. Average weather conditions and historicalrates of technological change are also assumed to prevail during the projection period.

FAPRI recognizes that the Agricultural Outlook is the result of efforts made by numerous individuals.This includes many USDA employees from several agencies within the department. We have alsofollowed advice and counsel from individuals throughout the land grant and other university systems,as well as several extension specialists. Industry experts have also contributed by pointing out errorsand areas of concern. We acknowledge and appreciate the help of numerous individuals, but we takefull responsibility for any errors that may appear.

The projections included in this outlook were prepared in January 1997based on the best information available at that time.

For a detailed look at domestic markets, see FAPRI Staff Report #1-97, FAPRI 1997 U.S. Agricultural Outlook.

FAPRI1997 World

Agricultural Outlook

Staff Report #2-97

January 1997

Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute

Iowa State UniversityUniversity of Missouri-Columbia

FAPRI

Iowa State University University of Missouri-Columbia

William H. Meyers Abner W. WomackDermot J. Hayes Robert E. Young IIDarnell B. Smith Gregg Suhler

Samarendu Mohanty Joe TrujilloSudhir Chaudhary D. Scott Brown

Steve Elmore Gary M. AdamsJay Fabiosa Wyatt Thompson

Frank Fuller Lori WilcoxChad Hart Brian Willott

Karen Kovarik Pat WesthoffV. Premakumar Kevin Smith

James Rude Peter ZimmelIan Shaw Jose Pagonda

Dharmaraju KakaniChandrashekar Karnum

This material is based upon work supported by the Cooperative State Research Education and Extension Service, U.S.Department of Agriculture, under Agreement No. 96-34149-2533.

Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do notnecessarily reflect the view of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Contents

Figures ............................................................................................................................................................ iv

Tables.............................................................................................................................................................. vi

Abbreviations and Acronyms .......................................................................................................................... x

Overview of the 1997 World Outlook ........................................................................................................... 1

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections ............................................................................................... 11

Macroeconomic Assumptions ............................................................................................................... 12

Policy Assumptions .............................................................................................................................. 18

Commodity Price Projections ................................................................................................................ 23

World Grain and Oilseed Aggregates ............................................................................................................ 29

Wheat ........................................................................................................................................................... 35

Feed and Coarse Grains ............................................................................................................................... 55

Oilseeds and Products ................................................................................................................................... 91

Soybean Complex ................................................................................................................................. 93

Rapeseed Complex .............................................................................................................................. 121

Sunflower Seed Complex .................................................................................................................... 135

Palm Oil Complex ............................................................................................................................... 149

Rice ............................................................................................................................................................ 159

Cotton ......................................................................................................................................................... 171

Sugar .......................................................................................................................................................... 189

Meat ........................................................................................................................................................... 199

World Meat .......................................................................................................................................... 200

Beef and Veal ...................................................................................................................................... 201

Pork ..................................................................................................................................................... 204

Poultry ................................................................................................................................................. 208

Dairy Products ............................................................................................................................................ 225

U.S. Agricultural Exports ........................................................................................................................... 241

iii

Figures

Real GDP Growth Rate ................................................................................................................................ 27Developed Economies’ Real GDP Growth Rates ........................................................................................ 27Developing Economies’ Real GDP Growth Rates ...................................................................................... 28Population Growth Rates .............................................................................................................................. 28

World Crop Area ........................................................................................................................................... 32World Grain Production, Consumption and Stock ........................................................................................ 32

World Oilseed Area ....................................................................................................................................... 33World Oilseed Sector Prices .......................................................................................................................... 33

World Wheat Area Harvested, Production and Consumption ....................................................................... 39World Wheat Stock-to-Use Ratio and Price .................................................................................................. 39Wheat Exports by Major Countries .............................................................................................................. 40Wheat Net Imports ........................................................................................................................................ 40Wheat Imports by Major Regions ................................................................................................................. 41

World Feed-Grain Area Harvested, Production and Consumption ............................................................... 59Feed-Grain Price vs. Stock-to-Use Ratio ...................................................................................................... 59Feed-Grain Net Imports ................................................................................................................................ 60Feed-Grain Net Exports ................................................................................................................................ 60

Soybean Net Exports of Major Exporters .................................................................................................... 97Soybean Net Imports of Major Importers .................................................................................................... 97Soybean Meal Net Exports of Major Exporters ........................................................................................... 99Soybean Meal Net Imports of Major Importers ........................................................................................... 99Soybean Oil Net Exports of Major Exporters ............................................................................................. 101Soybean Oil Net Imports of Major Importers ............................................................................................. 101

Rapeseed Area Harvested ........................................................................................................................... 125Rapeseed Trade ........................................................................................................................................... 125Rapeseed Meal Trade .................................................................................................................................. 126Rapeseed Oil Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 126

World Sunflower Seed Trade ....................................................................................................................... 139World Sunflower Meal Trade ...................................................................................................................... 139World Sunflower Oil Net Exports of Major Exporters ............................................................................... 140World Sunflower Oil Net Imports of Major Importers ............................................................................... 140

World Palm Oil Trade .................................................................................................................................. 153World Palm Kernel Meal Trade ................................................................................................................... 153

World Rice Area Harvested, Production and Consumption ........................................................................ 162World Rice Stock-to-Use Ratio vs. Price .................................................................................................... 162Rice Exports by Major Countries ............................................................................................................... 163Rice Imports by Major Countries ............................................................................................................... 163

Cotton Net Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 174World Cotton Prices .................................................................................................................................... 174World Cotton Net Imports ........................................................................................................................... 175World Cotton Net Exports ........................................................................................................................... 175

iv

v

World Sugar FOB Caribbean Price ............................................................................................................. 192Sugar Net Exports ....................................................................................................................................... 192Sugar Net Imports ....................................................................................................................................... 193

Beef Production ........................................................................................................................................... 203Beef Net Exports ......................................................................................................................................... 203Pork Production ........................................................................................................................................... 206Pork Net Exports ......................................................................................................................................... 206Poultry Production ...................................................................................................................................... 210Poultry Net Exports ..................................................................................................................................... 210

Butter Production ........................................................................................................................................ 228Butter Net Exports ...................................................................................................................................... 228

Cheese Production ....................................................................................................................................... 230Cheese Net Exports ..................................................................................................................................... 230

NFD Production .......................................................................................................................................... 232NFD Net Exports ........................................................................................................................................ 232

Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports ........................................................................................................ 244Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports ............................................................................................................. 244Value of U.S. Animal and Feed Exports ...................................................................................................... 245Feed Equivalents of U.S. Meat Exports ...................................................................................................... 245

Tables

Real GDP Projections .................................................................................................................................. 13GDP Deflator Projections ............................................................................................................................ 14Exchange Rate Projections........................................................................................................................... 15Population Projections ................................................................................................................................. 16Per Capita Real GDP Projections ................................................................................................................ 17Agricultural Policy Assumptions ................................................................................................................. 20Commodity Prices Projections ..................................................................................................................... 23Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity ............................................................................................ 25

World Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................................. 31World Total Oilseed Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................. 31

Wheat Trade ................................................................................................................................................. 38World Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................................ 42U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................................... 42Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 43Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................... 43Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 44Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 44European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 45Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 45Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 46Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 46Other Former Soviet Union Wheat Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 47Other Western European Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................. 47Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 48High-Income East Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 48Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................... 49Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................. 49Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 50Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 50Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization.................................................................................. 51Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 51Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 52Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 52Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 53Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................... 53Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 54

Feed-Grain Trade ......................................................................................................................................... 58World Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................. 61U.S. Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization, Corn and Sorghum .................................................................. 62U.S. Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization, Barley and Oats ....................................................................... 63Argentine Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 64Australian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 65Canadian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 66Chinese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 67Eastern European Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 67European Union Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 68South African Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 69Ukrainian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 70Israeli Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 72

vi

vii

Japanese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................... 73Russian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 74Other Former Soviet Union Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................. 76Algerian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 78Egyptian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................... 79Nigerian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................... 79Other African Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 80Saudi Arabian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 80Other Middle Eastern Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 81Brazilian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 82Mexican Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................... 83Other Latin American Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................... 84Indian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 84Indonesian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 85Malaysian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 85Pakistani Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 86South Korean Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 87Taiwanese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 87Thai Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 88Vietnamese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 88Other Asian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 89Rest-of-World Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 90

Soybean Trade .............................................................................................................................................. 96Soybean Meal Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 98Soybean Oil Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 100World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 102U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 103Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 104Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 105Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................... 106Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 107Paraguayan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .................................................................................. 108Eastern European Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................................................ 109European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 110Russian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 111Ukrainian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 112Other Former Soviet Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................................... 113Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 114Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 115Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................ 116South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 117Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 118Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 119

Rapeseed Trade ........................................................................................................................................... 123Rapeseed Meal Trade .................................................................................................................................. 123Rapeseed Oil Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 124World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 127Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 128Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 129European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ......................................................................... 130Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization.......................................................................................... 131Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................... 132Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization ............................................................................. 133

Sunflower Seed Trade ................................................................................................................................. 137Sunflower Meal Trade ................................................................................................................................. 137Sunflower Oil Trade .................................................................................................................................... 138World Sunflower Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................... 141Argentine Sunflower Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 142Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................. 143European Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 144Russian Sunflower Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................. 145Ukrainian Sunflower Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 146Other FSU-15 Sunflower Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 147Rest-of-World Sunflower Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 148

World Palm Trade ........................................................................................................................................ 151World Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 152Chinese Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 154European Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................. 154Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................. 155Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................... 156Rest-of-World Palm Oil Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 157

Rice Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 161World Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................................. 164U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................................ 164Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................................... 165Indian Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................................. 165Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 166Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 166Thai Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................................ 167Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 167European Union Rice Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 168Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 168Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................................... 169Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 169Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 170

All Cotton Trade .......................................................................................................................................... 173World Cotton Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................................... 176U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................................ 176African Cotton Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 177Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................... 177Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 178Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................................... 178Other FSU-15 Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 179Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................ 179Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................. 180Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 180Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 181Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 181Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 182Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................... 182Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 183Eastern European Cotton Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................... 183European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 184Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 184Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 185

viii

Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 185Other Western European Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................ 186Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 186South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................. 187Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................... 187

Sugar Trade ................................................................................................................................................. 191U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................................. 194Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization .................................................................................................... 195Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 195Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................... 195European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 196Thailand Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 196Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 196Eastern European Sugar Supply and Utilization ......................................................................................... 197Former Soviet Union Sugar Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 197Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 197

Beef and Veal Trade ..................................................................................................................................... 202Pork Trade ................................................................................................................................................... 205Broiler Meat Trade ...................................................................................................................................... 209U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................................ 211European Union Meat Supply and Utilization ............................................................................................ 213Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 214Former Soviet Union Meat Supply and Utilization .................................................................................... 215Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 216Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................................ 217Chinese Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization ........................................................................... 218South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 219Australian Meat Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 220Other Countries’ Meat Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 221Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries ................................................................................. 223

Butter Trade ................................................................................................................................................. 227Cheese Trade ............................................................................................................................................... 229Nonfat Dry Milk Trade ............................................................................................................................... 231U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization .............................................................................................................. 233Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization ..................................................................................................... 234Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization ...................................................................................................... 235European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization ........................................................................................... 236New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................................ 237Former Soviet Union Dairy Supply and Utilization ................................................................................... 238Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization ....................................................................................................... 239Other Countries’ Dairy Supply and Utilization .......................................................................................... 240

Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports ........................................................................................................ 243Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports ............................................................................................................. 243

ix

Abbreviations and AcronymsAbbreviations and AcronymsAbbreviations and AcronymsAbbreviations and AcronymsAbbreviations and AcronymsThis list of abbreviations and acronyms used in the Agricultural Outlook is provided for the convenience of our readers.Abbreviations and acronyms typically are not spelled out in the text.

ARP Acreage Reduction ProgramAPEC Asia Pacific Economic CooperationASEAN Association of South East Asian NationsCAP Common Agricultural PolicyCBO Congressional Budget OfficeCCC Commodity Credit CorporationCEE Central Eastern EuropeCIF Cost, Insurance, and FreightCOP Cereals, Oilseeds, and Protein CropsCPI Consumer Price IndexCRP Conservation Reserve Programcwt hundredweightDEIP Dairy Export Incentive ProgramEEP Export Enhancement ProgramEU European UnionECU European currency unitFACTA-90 Food, Agriculture, Conservation, and Trade Act of 1990FAIR Act Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research InstituteFOB free on boardFOR Farmer-Owned ReserveFSU Former Soviet UnionGATT General Agreement on Tariffs and TradeGRIP Gross Revenue Insurance PlanGDP gross domestic productha hectareHFCS high-fructose corn syrupHRW hard red winterMERCOSUR The Common Market of the Southern Cone of South AmericaMGA maximum guaranteed areaMGQ maximum guaranteed quantitymha million hectaresmmt million metric tonsmt metric tonNAFTA North American Free Trade AgreementNFA net flexed areaNFD nonfat dry milkNPQ nominal price quotesPLD Paid Land DiversionPROCAMPO Mexican direct income support programrBST recombinant bovine somatotropinROW Rest-of-Worldtmt thousand metric tonsTRQ tariff rate quotaWGTA Western Grain Transportation ActWTO World Trade Organization

x

Macroeconomic OutlookA pattern of economic stability across a wide cross-sectionof countries has raised hopes for sustained and evenlydistributed global economic growth. Reforms, bothmacroeconomic and structural, in developing countriesform the basis for this growth. World economic growth ofreal gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to averageabout 3 percent annually over the next decade. Economicgrowth in developing countries is projected to be 5.7percent while economic growth in developed economies isprojected to be 2.4 percent. While there are some regionaldifferences (that is, Asia with fast growth and Africa withslow growth), the overall prospects are positive. Risingincomes in the developing regions of the world andresponsive demand will boost food consumption and resultin dietary shifts to higher protein foods.

The remarkable growth rates in Asia in the recent past areexpected to slow somewhat over the course of the baseline.Economic growth has been tempered by tight monetarypolicies that were introduced to control inflation.Production of those goods that use low-skilled labor in themanufacturing process have shifted location within Asia toregions with lower labor costs such as Vietnam, Myanmar,Bangladesh, and India. Nonetheless, trade liberalizationthrough the Association of South East Asian Nations(ASEAN) and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)should provide the foundation for economic growth in theAsian region. Economic growth should settle at moresustainable levels.

Economic growth in Asia is led by China, which hasaveraged an annual real GDP growth rate of 10 percentover the last 10 years. Over the baseline period China isexpected to have an 8.6 percent average annual growth rateof real GDP. The government’s efforts to control inflationshould pay off since inflation is expected to decrease frommore than 10 percent at the beginning of the projectionperiod to less than 6 percent at the end of the period.Chinese population growth is expected to slow from a 1percent growth rate at the beginning of the baseline to 0.65percent at the end of the projection period.

Average annual real GDP growth in South Korea andTaiwan is expected to be less than the last 10 years withaverage growth rates declining from 8.6 to 6.1 percent andfrom 7.7 to 6.2 percent, respectively. Population growth inboth countries is expected to remain below 1 percent perannum. Inflation remains under 5 percent in South Koreaand below 3 percent in Taiwan.

By the turn of the century the population of India isexpected to exceed 1 billion. The rate of growth in India’s

Overview of the 1997 World Outlook

population slows from 1.8 percent at the beginning of theprojection period to 1.4 percent at the end of this period.Real GDP growth is expected to average 7 percent over theforecast period. Indian inflation is expected to average 6.2percent over the projection period. Significant growth isexpected to occur in Malaysia and Indonesia with projectedannual growth rates of 7.5 and 6.5 percent, respectively.Population growth in these countries is also expected to bebrisk with annual growth rates of 2 and 1.5 percent.

Latin America is rebounding from a severe recession in1995. The growth has primarily come from Mexico,Argentina, and Brazil. Potential growth for the regiondepends on whether structural reforms, which have alreadybeen initiated, will continue. Risks to continued growthinclude the fact that practically every Latin Americancountry, with the exception of Mexico, potentially has anovervalued currency. The population of the region, as awhole, grows by an annual average of 1.4 percent.

Real GDP for Mexico is projected to grow at an annual rateof 5.5 percent. Inflation is projected to remain a problemwith annual rates more than 15 percent. Total foreign debtgrows throughout the forecast period and increases byalmost 20 percent between now and the turn of the century.But the peso is projected to depreciate against the dollar byan annual average of more than 10 percent throughout theprojection period. Because of inflation, the pesoappreciates in real terms by almost 5 percent per year overthe projection period.

Strong growth for South American countries is led byCommon Market of the Southern Cone of South America,MERCOSUR, partners Argentina and Brazil. TheBrazilian economy grows by almost an average of 5percent per year in terms of real GDP growth. Inflationhovers at more than 10 percent per year. A growingcurrent account deficit and increasing foreign debt (10percent growth between now and the turn of the century)cause the nominal exchange rate to depreciate by an annualaverage of 13 percent against the U.S. dollar. Real growthof GDP averages 3.6 percent over the projection period forArgentina. Although there is a small increase in thecurrent account deficit and a 20 percent increase in foreigndebt, the peso is fixed in nominal value against the U.S.dollar until after the turn of the century, at which point itdepreciates by 4.5 percent. Inflation in Argentina growsfrom 2.5 to 8.3 percent by the end of the projection period.In real terms the peso depreciates by an annual average of1.4 percent.

The African countries display the smallest potential foreconomic growth among developing countries. Crude oilprices significantly affect the prospects for northern Africancountries. From 1995 to 2001 the crude oil price is forecastto increase by 13 percent. The growth in real GDP isforecast to average 3.5 percent in Algeria, 4.5 percent inEgypt, 6.9 percent in Morocco, and 5.5 percent in Tunisia.The sub-Saharan region of Africa continues to show theleast potential for growth. South Africa is forecast to growby almost 3 percent per year in real GDP.

Growth in developed economies is projected to be moremodest. The average annual growth rate in real GDP variesfrom 2.2 percent for the United States to the 3.5 percentrange for Canada and Australia. Inflation rates are modest,ranging from less than 1 percent per year in New Zealand tothe 2.5 to 2.6 percent range for the United States, Canada,and Australia. Over the long run, in nominal terms allcurrencies, except Australia’s, appreciate against the U.S.dollar. In real terms only the Canadian and EuropeanUnion (EU) currencies appreciate against the dollar.

The picture for the economies in transition is alsooptimistic. Average annual real growth rates in EasternEurope are expected to range from 4 percent to almost 6percent. The growth rate in the Former Soviet Union isexpected to reach 5 percent after the turn of the century.Problems with inflation are generally under control butBulgaria, Romania, and the FSU are expected to haveannual rates ranging from 13 to almost 20 percent.Inflation in the rest of Eastern Europe is expected to be inthe 6 to 7 percent range. The currencies in the CzechRepublic and Slovakia are expected to appreciate againstthe U.S. dollar in real terms. Currencies of other EasternEuropean countries are expected to show a modestdepreciation against the U.S. dollar.

Agriculture Policy AssumptionsThe FAPRI baseline assumes that all government programsand international agreements that are currently in effect willremain in effect over the forecast period. On a multilaterallevel, the Uruguay Round (UR) Agreement of the WorldTrade Organization (WTO) has the largest impact onagricultural trade. In terms of direct impacts, the largesteffects of the UR Agreement are the disciplines on exportsubsidies and market access. These disciplines currentlyhave the largest impact on international markets for wheat,meat, dairy products, and to a lesser extent vegetable oils.Apart from the direct effect of export subsidy reductionsand increased market access for specific commodities, thelargest benefits of the UR Agreement are indirect, resultingfrom higher income growth. The Agreement onAgriculture commits all members of WTO to revisit theagreement for agriculture in 1999. The benefits of thesenegotiations are not accounted for in this analysis.

In addition to trade agreements, world agricultural marketshave been significantly affected by unilateral changes indomestic policies. Perhaps the most significantliberalization took place with the passage of the U.S.Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act (FAIR).With the passage of this legislation all land set-asideprovisions, with the exception of those directed atconservation, are eliminated. Deficiency payments arereplaced with fixed contract payments and plantingflexibility is increased with the removal of base programareas. The FAIR Act placed limits on the financing ofExport Enhancement Program (EEP) expenditures, tobelow GATT-allowed levels through the year 2000. Afterthis period the expenditure levels are consistent with theGATT export subsidy expenditure limits. The currentsystem of supporting milk prices through purchases ofcheese, butter, and skim milk powder will only becontinued until December 31, 1999. After 2000, a recourseloan will be available to dairy processors of manufacturedproducts. The number of fluid milk marketing orders willbe consolidated from 33 to between 10 and 14 over thenext three years.

The final stages of 1992 reform of the EU’s CommonAgricultural Policy (CAP) took place during 1995/96.Cereal intervention prices and support prices for beef werereduced as part of this reform and assistance is nowprovided on the basis of compensatory payments accordingto historic area and regional yields. Cereal interventionprices are assumed to be held at 119 European CurrencyUnits (ECU) per ton, and cereal compensation is assumedto remain at 54 ECU per ton. The beef support price isassumed to remain at 3.48 ECU per kilogram, the pig meatbasic price is assumed to remain at 1.57 ECU per kilogram,and the ceiling on intervention purchases of beef is reducedto 350 thousand tons after 1997. No reform of the EUdairy market is assumed apart from modest reductions inthe butter support price. Although further potentialexpansion of the EU includes Central and East European(CEE) countries, no explicit assumption is made regardingfurther CAP reform to facilitate this accession, which isassumed to not occur before 2006. The set-asiderequirements for cereals, oilseed, and protein (COP) cropshave been reduced to 5 percent of base area in 1997.However, as wheat prices weaken in the longer term, theEU is assumed to increase the set-aside to 10 percent.Only when the world price is equal to or greater than theEU intervention price can the EU export above the GATTexport volume discipline levels.

Unilateral policy change has occurred in a number of othercountries. Canada has removed its rail subsidy under theWestern Grain Transportation Act (WGTA) andcompensated producers with fixed payments based onhistoric shipments. The Feed Freight Assistance program

2 / Overview

has been terminated and the dairy subsidy will be phasedout over five years starting August 1, 1996. The effect ofWGTA reform should be to reduce grain prices at prairiepositions. The net impact should be larger for lowervalued crops such as feed grains and should encouragelivestock production through lower feed costs.

In addition to signing the North American Free TradeAgreement (NAFTA) in 1994, Mexico pursued a course ofagricultural policy reform. Beginning with modified lawsgoverning land ownership and a new program of directincome support called PROCAMPO, the Mexicangovernment introduced programs to re-populate theMexican cow herd, along with providing technicalassistance including research and education. Crop pricesupports were abolished and replaced with directgovernment payments on a per hectare basis. This policychange is expected to have a significant impact on the cropproduction mix. Because corn production was the largestbeneficiary from administered prices, the reform shoulddecrease corn production and expand competing crops.The former system of price supports taxed livestockproducers through higher feed costs, so its eliminationshould increase livestock production.

South Africa has eliminated its Maize Board and reducedproducer support. Argentina has reformed a system thatpenalized agriculture in favor of developing the industrialsector. Since 1991 export taxes have been eliminated (foreverything except soybeans and sunflowers), storage andhandling facilities have been privatized, and the graineconomy has been deregulated. In other developingcountries, policies, both direct and indirect such asovervalued currency maintenance that penalizes agriculturein favor of industrial development, have also beenabandoned or reduced.

Assumptions regarding future growth in Chinese incomesand agricultural productivity play a critical role indetermining the FAPRI projections for future Chineseagricultural trade. Chinese GDP grew at an average rate ofmore than 10 percent from 1985 to 1994. We assume thatChinese GDP will continue to grow by more than 9 percentannually until 1998, declining afterwards to 8.2 percent bythe year 2005. This rapid growth in consumer incomestranslates into a substantial increase in the demand for meatproducts. Given current barriers to meat imports, weassume that China will be able to meet its growing demandfor pork, beef, and mutton through increased domesticproduction. Rising domestic meat and egg productioncreates a rapidly growing demand for feed grains.Currently about 80 percent of Chinese pork and 70 percentof poultry and eggs are produced by household units thatdo not specialize in meat production. These growers use acombination of nontraditional green feeds supplemented

with grains to raise their livestock. By the end of theprojection period only 72 percent of pork and 59 percent ofpoultry and eggs will be produced by household units. Asa greater share of China’s meat and egg production comesfrom more modern, specialized households and commercialfarms, feed efficiency will increase, but the quantity ofgrain feed in animal rations will also increase. Therefore,despite growth in coarse grain yields of 1.3 percent andwheat yields of 1.2 percent annually, China’s grainproduction is not expected to keep pace with rising feedand food demands. The Chinese government has stated itsintention to limit grain imports to 5 percent of domesticconsumption. The FAPRI baseline does not impose strictadherence to this objective, but China remains more than90 percent self-sufficient in grain production at the end ofthe projection period.

The FAPRI baseline does not make any assumptionconcerning China’s accession to the WTO. However,Chinese membership in the WTO or other politicaldevelopments that open Chinese meat markets tointernational trade will decrease China’s projected graindeficit and increase meat imports. Likewise, sluggisheconomic growth or more rapid improvement in grainyields will influence Chinese grain self-sufficiency.

The pace of reform has varied in the FSU. Input priceswere liberalized before output prices. Output pricesremained suppressed through administered price control,low state procurement prices, and export restrictions. Theresult was a marked decline in the terms of trade foragriculture. Only recently have export restrictions beenremoved, and prices liberalized. The deterioration of theterms of trade for the livestock sector has perhaps been themost severe. A decline in livestock profitability could notbe avoided with high feed prices, excess capacity, and adecline in final product demand as consumer subsidieswere removed. The result has been a massive liquidationof livestock herds. The FAPRI baseline assumes only agradual producer accommodation to market reforms.Cereal yields are only assumed to return to historic highsand trend yield growth is not assumed. Land removedfrom crop production is generally not assumed to return.Livestock inventories bottom out in 1997 and only begin amodest increase after that point.

UncertaintiesOver the past 18 months, cereal carryover stocks havebecome extremely small relative to use. A period of tightsupplies was initiated by weather-related shocks. As pricesrose rapidly, consumption contracted gradually. Theinability of higher prices to ration demand caused someobservers to speculate that demand is becoming lessresponsive to prices. In developed country markets the

Overview / 3

growth of integrated feeding facilities lends credence tothis belief. Furthermore, strong economic growth indeveloping countries has contributed to growing cerealimport demand.

Stockholding over the forecast period does not return tohistoric levels. This is partially a result of declines ingovernment stockholdings by both the United States andthe EU. Stockholding is more evenly distributed acrossother regions of the globe. One effect of this projecteddecline in stockholdings, combined with decreasedresponsiveness in demand and random production shocks,is greater potential for price fluctuations.

China, as always, remains a large uncertainty. Strongmacroeconomic growth combined with a shift to higherprotein food consumption should lead to a rapid increase inimport demand for coarse grains. At this point it isuncertain whether this projected income growth will berealized, whether China will import the protein in the formof meats or produce the livestock domestically and importthe necessary grains, or whether the Chinese authoritieswill strictly impose a self-sufficiency goal of limitingimports of cereals to 5 percent of domestic consumption.

The FSU also remains a large question mark. Howproducers will react to reforms is uncertain. The decline inthe use of purchased inputs and in the physical capitalstock has been dramatic. Crops yields and animal numbershave declined accordingly. The baseline assumes thatyields will recover very gradually and only to levels ashigh as historic record yields. The livestock herd isexpected to stop shrinking after 1997 and the rebuildingprocess is expected to be modest. These assumptions maybe too pessimistic (or even too optimistic) and the FSUmay return to being a significant player in agriculturaltrade.

Increased planting flexibility, more yield-enhancingresearch and development spurred on by higher prices,and potential increases in harvested area should all allowproduction to keep pace with demand without continuedprice escalation. However, the uncertainties listed here andothers can all contribute to much more volatility than canbe predicted by any current modeling approach.

Wheat OutlookThe average 1995/96 wheat price increased more than 30percent relative to the previous year. Such a large swing inprice has been attributed to many factors such asproduction shortfalls in 1995/96, low public stockholdingsin major exporting countries, and strong demand indeveloping countries. These high prices prompted theUnited States and the EU to export without subsidy. The

EU also introduced export taxes in order to protectdomestic livestock sectors from rising grain prices.

Farmers around the world responded to this high price byplanting an additional 10 million hectares of wheat in1996/97. With this additional land, world wheat areaincreased to a record level of approximately 230 millionhectares in 1996/97. Additional area and favorableweather in most wheat-producing regions resulted inincreased production of 44 million metric tons more thanin 1995/96 to a level of 580 million metric tons. Thisincrease in production would have been much higherwithout a drought in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia,and Ukraine. Responding to this record crop, prices havebeen falling since the second quarter of 1996. The EU hasresumed providing export subsidies to some targetedmarkets. Thus, there exists a possibility for the UnitedStates to use EEP for 1996/97, depending upon the EU’sactions.

Through 1997, world wheat area declines by less than 1percent because of the reduced EU set-aside. Two years ofincreased production depress the price of U.S. Hard RedWinter (HRW) wheat at the Gulf ports to $152 per ton in1997 and $149 per ton in the following year. This is thelowest price over the projection period. As the wheat pricedrops, wheat is projected to lose area to competing crops.A steady annual increase of 1.3 percent for world wheatconsumption subsequently puts upward pressure on wheatprices. After 2001, world wheat area is expected tostabilize at between 227 and 228 million hectares as pricerecovers. Even though area decreases in the next few yearsand recovers slightly after 2001, production is projected toincrease at 1.1 to 1.3 percent annually through yieldgrowth.

Over the next 10 years, production is expected to keep upwith rising consumption. In order to meet rising domesticdemand, developing countries are expected to dependlargely on imported wheat because of limited resources,particularly land, to expand domestic production. Theincreased dependence of developing countries on importedwheat is expected to increase wheat trade by more than 30percent in the next 10 years.

Among developing regions, Asia is expected to lead byincreasing its imports by more than 50 percent over theprojection period. Within Asia, China will continue to be amajor importer due to its population and income growth.Pacific countries are also projected to depend heavily onimported wheat in order to meet growing domesticdemand. India is a wild-card player in the wheat markets.Weather will be a deciding factor in determining India’sstatus in the wheat markets, either as an importer or anexporter.

4 / Overview

Similarly, strong income growth in Africa and the MiddleEast is expected to increase import demands byapproximately 24 percent by 2005. The North Africancountries of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia will continue todepend on imported wheat to meet a large portion of theirwheat supplies. In addition, Tunisia and Egypt, whichrecently allowed private traders to import, are projected toincrease their import shares. Similar to wheat imports ofother regions, Latin American wheat imports, projected toincrease by 25 percent over the next 10 years, will also bedriven by income growth.

Developments in the FSU remain an important source ofuncertainty in the projection period. Contraction in FSUlivestock herds has resulted in drastically reduced feedrequirements and reduced imports of all grains. As thelivestock sector recovers in the next two years, feedconsumption is expected to grow, but is unlikely that it willreach pre-reform levels.

On the export side, Argentina, Australia, Canada, theEuropean Union, and the United States will continue todominate the markets in the next 10 years. In the lastdecade, Argentina’s domestic agricultural policieshampered its competitiveness in world wheat trade, butrecent economic reforms have put Argentina back on track.Higher area and a 1.5 percent annual yield growth in thenext 10 years can be seen as a reemergence of Argentina asa major exporter accounting for approximately 10 percentof market share.

Prospects for U.S. market shares are closely linked to thepolicy developments in the EU. In the next few years, theUnited States is expected to expand its exports because theEU’s subsidized exports are constrained by UruguayRound export subsidy limits. But as the world pricerecovers by the end of the century, it is expected to exceedEU domestic price, enabling EU to export without subsidy.The increase in EU market share comes at the expense ofthe other exporters, particularly the United States.

Rice OutlookRice is the second largest grain next to wheat in terms ofproduction. However, less than 5 percent of totalconsumption is traded. This compares with more than 20percent for wheat. The thinness of the market makes riceprices volatile. Even a small change in policy or weatherin any rice producing or consuming country can have asignificant effect on the rice markets. Most Asiancountries, where rice is a staple food, have policies toachieve self-sufficiency. In many of these countries, theprice of rice is viewed as an indicator of the performanceof the government and its sustainability.

In recent years, there have been significant changes in theconsumption patterns of rice around the world. Per capitarice consumption in most developing Asian countries isdeclining due to high income growth. On the other hand,strong income growth is increasing per capita consumptionin many African developing nations. Per capita riceconsumption is also increasing in developed countries(United States, EU) and nontraditional rice-consumingcountries (Argentina, Brazil). This trend in consumption islikely to continue through the next decade.

World rice area is expected to increase by 1 millionhectares over the next 10 years. Production, which growsmostly through yield growth, is likely to keep pace withconsumption in the first five years, but consumption isexpected to outpace production in the later period.Additional production in the first five years puts downwardpressure on price by driving the Thai 100 percent rice pricefrom $360 per metric ton in 1996 to $305 per metric ton in1999/00. But after 1999/00, the Thai price steadilyincreases and reaches $340 per metric ton by 2005/06.Unlike wheat and coarse grains, no significant changes inrice trade are projected. Most Asian countries are expectedto follow self-sufficiency policies. China, the largest riceproducer in the world, is expected to remain a small netimporter in the next 10 years due to limited landavailability and population growth. Likewise, limited landavailability and population growth are likely to limitIndia’s export position over the next 10 years.

Thailand accounts for less than 4 percent of world riceproduction, but accounts for more than 25 percent of worldtrade. Even though Thailand production is constrained bylimited land availability, yield growth is expected toexpand production. In the face of declining per capitaconsumption, Thailand is projected to solidify its positionas the world’s largest rice exporter.

Vietnam has come a long way in rice trade, moving froman importer of rice until 1987 to the second largest exporterby 1996. But, over the longer term, Vietnam’s exportpotential diminishes. Vietnam has a young population andmost of the population lives in rural areas. So as incomeincreases, rice will make up a large portion of increasedfood demand as the dietary preference shifts from tubers torice. In the next 10 years, production will increaseprimarily through yield growth but not enough to keeppace with consumption growth, and as a result exportsdecline. Even with lower exports, Vietnam is stillprojected to keep its ranking as the world’s second largestrice exporter by the end of the projection period.

Overview / 5

Feed-Grain OutlookAs with other cereals, producers faced high prices forcoarse grains when they made their planting decisions forthe 1996/97 crop year. These high prices induced a 2.4percent increase in the world area for coarse grains.Favorable weather conditions led to an 8.6 percent increasein yields over last year’s harvest so that productionincreased by 11 percent over the 1995/96 harvest.

With the strong increase in production, prices in 1996/97are expected to fall from previous year highs. However,global coarse-grain area for 1997/98 is only expected todecline by a marginal amount. Global demand for coarsegrains is expected to continue to increase at approximately1.6 percent each year over the baseline period. With yieldsonly expected to grow at 1.2 percent each year and totalarea expected to be relatively constant, corn prices, at theGulf of Mexico, bottom out at $107 per ton in 1997/98 andgradually increase to $127 per ton at the end of theprojection period. Over the next 10 years production isexpected to keep up with demand, but prices will remainsufficiently high to ration use and induce productionincreases.

A 600 thousand hectare increase in Argentine corn areacombined with 3 percent higher yields increased 1996/97production, leading to an expected export increase of morethan 1.8 million metric tons compared to 1995/96. Area isexpected to decrease slightly in 1997/98 because of lowerprices. In the subsequent periods, area is expected todecline modestly, through 1999/2000, and graduallyincrease until 2005/06 to 3.06 million hectares. Corn yieldsare projected to increase by 2 percent per year. Theseyields are driven by increased use of fertilizer andchemicals and the forecast yield growth may beconservative. Even with a 20 percent increase in domesticuse over the projection period, exports are projected toincrease from 7.3 million metric tons in 1996/97 to 8.7million metric tons in 2005/06.

Australian barley production increases in 1996/97 as areaexpands by 90 thousand hectares and yields increase by 6percent; however, increased domestic demand leaves 80thousand tons less grain for export. Because of competitionfrom wheat and oilseeds, barley area is not projected toincrease over the next 10 years, leaving little opportunityfor exports to increase.

A 565 thousand hectare increase in Canadian barley arealed to a 2.87 million metric ton increase in barleyproduction in 1996/97. Barley area and production areexpected to fall in the next few years because ofcompetition from canola and wheat. Over this time periodfeed use is expected to increase. Exports increase by anestimated 1.1 million metric tons in the 1996/97 marketing

year compared to 1995/96, but are then projected todecline until 2002/03 and then only recover to the 2.2million metric ton level by 2005.

As a result of a 6 percent reduction in yields between1995/96 and 1996/97, Eastern European feed-grainproduction declined by 2 million metric tons. Area is notexpected to grow much over the projection period, butyields should continue to improve, expanding productionmore quickly than recovering domestic utilization. In1996/97 exports declined markedly from the previous year,but the region remains a net exporter and it is anticipatedthat Eastern Europe will increase feed-grain exports, tonearly 1.7 million metric tons by 2005/06.

With a reduction in the set-aside from 12 to 10 percent in1996/97, the EU barley area increased by 685 thousandhectares. The increase in area combined with a 13.5percent growth in yield raised production by 9.1 millionmetric tons from 1995/96 levels and net exports areestimated to be up by 1.1 million metric tons from lastyear’s levels. The 1997/98 5 percent set-aside addsanother 281 thousand hectares to barley production. Thisincrease in area is more than offset by a return to morenormal yields so that production actually falls between1996/97 and 1997/98. However, exports increase as stocksare drawn down. Over the latter part of the projectionperiod, competition from wheat will limit barley area to 11million hectares. Increasing domestic use and limited yieldgrowth, which is assumed to be 1 percent each year, keepcoarse grain exports below GATT-allowed levels.

A 10 percent decline in yields in South Africa has led to a1 million metric ton decrease in production in 1996/97compared with the previous year. Increased domestic useand reduced production combine for a 1.5 million metricton decrease in exports from 1995/96. The removal of theMaize Board and the elimination of producer subsidies areexpected to result in less area being allocated to cornproduction. Increased domestic use, decreased area, andaverage yields over the next 10 years should cause theexportable surplus to decline to 270 thousand metric tons.

Even with a 5 million metric ton increase in Chinese feed-grain production in 1996/97, growth in domestic demandis outpacing the capacity to increase Chinese grainproduction, leaving this country in a net import position.Expected increases in feed demand, which average 4percent each year, will push import requirements to nearly19 million metric tons by 2005/06. However, a great dealof uncertainty surrounds China’s import requirements. Forexample, years with exceptionally good yields can leadChina back into a net export position. Yield growth isprojected to average 1.5 percent each year. Limited landresources constrain increased area for feed-grainproduction.

6 / Overview

Thailand was traditionally a net exporter of corn until1994/95. Since that time rapidly expanding demand haspressured domestic supply. Over the projection period,increased poultry production drives corn feed demand.Over the next 10 years Thailand is expected to increaseimports by almost five times the 1996/97 level of net trade.In Japan, trade liberalization increases meat imports, whichin turn puts downward pressure on domestic production.Japan’s feed-grain imports are expected to decline becauseof a contraction of feed use.

South Korea is expected to remain a large importer of feedgrains, but the growth in imports will slow to an averageof 1 percent per year as a result of a slowing of the growthof its livestock sector due to WTO access commitments.Taiwan also remains a large importer of corn but the rate ofgrowth of imports also slows (to 2 percent per year) asenvironmental concerns and physical constraints slow thegrowth of the livestock sector. The capacity to import corninto Malaysia has expanded with a new panamax capacityport, which can accept ships with a 50,000 ton or morecapacity. A rapid increase in poultry production drives thegrowth in Malaysian corn imports, which grow to 3 millionmetric tons per year by the end of the projection period.Feed use of corn in Indonesia is primarily for poultryproduction. Corn imports into Indonesia grow by anannual average of 7 percent each year over the projectionperiod.

In 1996/97 Mexican imports of corn decline by 2.9 millionmetric tons. Feed demand is projected to grow in 1997/98as the Mexican economy recovers, and to expand steadilyover the remainder of the projection period, with themajority of the increased demand coming for corn. Mexicois expected to continue to allow duty-free imports abovethe NAFTA Tariff Rate Quota (which is 3.46 million metrictons in 2005). By 2005 Mexican corn imports increase to4.7 million metric tons and sorghum imports reach 4.4million metric tons.

The Brazilian imports of corn grow from 1 to 2.9 millionmetric tons by the end of the projection period on thestrength of growing feed demand. Brazil area declinesmarginally over the baseline, yields grow at an averageannual rate of 2 percent, while domestic use grows atapproximately the same rate. Imports into Other LatinAmerica grow by an annual average of 4 percent over theprojection period.

Feed-grain production in Russia continued to decline in1996/97. Although the 1997/98 crop is expected toimprove, making more feed grains available for livestock,the animal herd has declined dramatically. Feed use is notprojected to increase rapidly over the projection period andproduction increases are expected to keep pace withdemand growth. Russia is not projected to return to its

former position as a major feed-grain importer and itfluctuates between being a small net exporter and a netimporter.

World Oilseeds OverviewExpansion of world oilseeds (soybean, rapeseed, andsunflower) area is expected over the course of the baseline.From a harvested area of 104 million hectares in 1996/97total oilseed area increases to 119 million hectares in2005/06. The annual average growth of yields for worldoilseeds is 0.87 percent over the 10-year projection period.Over this period oilseed production grows by an averageannual rate of 2.3 percent and oilseed production reaches228 million metric tons by 2005/06.

Oilmeal consumption for soybean meal, rapeseed meal,sunflower meal, and palm kernel meal grows from 122million metric tons in 1996/97 to 150 million metric tonsin 2005/06. The average annual growth in oilmealproduction is 2.3 percent . The growth in world demandfor vegetable oils (soybean oil, rapeseed oil, sunflower oil,palm oil, and palm kernel oil) averages 2.2 percent eachyear. This growth in vegetable oil production is primarilybased on the strength of growth in the palm oil sector,which increases its share from 29 to 32 percent of themarket.

World soybean area is projected to grow from 63.3 millionhectares to 69 million hectares at the end of the baseline.A significant portion of the increase in soybean area occursin Brazil and Argentina. Soybean yields are expected togrow by 1 percent per year. The crush of soybeansincreases with production. Between 1996/97 and 2005/06meal production grows by 18.8 million metric tons andconsumption grows by 20.4 million metric tons. Over thisperiod soybean oil production increases by 4.865 millionmetric tons while consumption of oil increases by 4.871million metric tons. Soybean meal prices decline through1998 with increased supplies to $207 per metric ton andthen increase over the latter part of the forecast to $222 permetric ton. Income growth in developing countries drivesthe growth in vegetable oil consumption. Soybean oilprices decline through to 1999 at $453 and then risethrough the remainder of the projection period to $557 permetric ton. Soybean prices bottom out at $230 per metricton in 1999 and increase for the rest of the period to $258per metric ton.

Argentina has reduced export rebates for vegetable oil by$2 per metric ton (the rebate drops from 1.5 percent to 1.35percent). However, these policy changes are not expectedto affect Argentina’s standing as the leading soybean oilexporter. Argentine soybean area is expected to increaseby 1.1 million hectares over the projection period. Yieldsare expected to grow by less than 1 percent each year.

Overview / 7

While most of the increase in soybean production iscrushed, an increasing share of the seed is exported. Thecrush is projected to increase by 27 percent over theprojection period, while exports are projected to increase by45 percent over the projection period.

Brazil has eliminated its export tax on raw soybeans. Thestate of Rio Grande do Sul, the largest soybean-producingstate, has reduced the state value-added tax on soybeanmeal and oil to 5 percent from 11.1 and 8 percent,respectively. The reduction in this state tax is expected toboost exports of meal and oil at the expense of soybeanexports. The reduction in export taxes should increasedomestic bean prices. Soybean area is expected to increaseby 1.5 million hectares over the projection period. Yieldsare projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 1.5percent. Over the projection period production is forecastto grow by 23 percent, crush is expected to grow by 20percent, and exports of raw beans are expected to grow by50 percent.

Growing livestock production in China drives the demandfor soybeans and meal. Despite the fact that China is alarge producer of soybeans, imports of soybeans grow from1.3 million metric tons to 3.1 million metric tons. Importsof meal grow from 1.7 million metric tons to 2.3 millionmetric tons. Domestic soybean production grows by 4.2million metric tons. Income growth also drives oilconsumption such that imports grow from 1.5 millionmetric tons to 2 million metric tons.

Despite an expected reduction of government support foroilseeds, India is expected to increase soybean productiondue to price advantages over other crops. Area is expectedto increase by 0.768 million hectares over the forecastperiod. Yields are expected to grow by 1 percent each year.Increased production of soybean meal, combined withrelatively limited domestic demand, is expected to increasesoybean meal exports from 2.2 to 3.1 million metric tons atthe end of the projection period. The Indian government’spolicy of prohibiting imports of oilseeds is under increasedpressure from domestic processors. The government hasindicated its willingness to lift the ban, but this reformwould lead to higher soybean meal exports than thoseprojected in this baseline.

The EU is the world’s largest importer of soybeans andmeal. Oilseed area in the EU is bound by the Blair Houseagreement to a maximum of 5.482 million hectares. Totalproduction on the set-aside land is stipulated to be below 1million metric tons in soybean meal equivalent. Between1996/97 and 2005/06 soybean crush grows by 2 percentand soybean meal use increases by 6 percent. Over thistime period imports of soybeans increase by 4 percent andsoybean meal imports increase by 10 percent.

Japan is expected to reduce its imports of soybean mealsubstantially while imports of beans increase very slightly.Liberalization of livestock imports reduces thecompetitiveness of the domestic livestock industry anddepresses livestock production and the demand for proteinmeal.

Korean soybean meal imports are expected to grow rapidlyover the projection period from 0.9 to 1.5 million metrictons. Bean imports are expected to grow more slowly.Soybean oil imports grow by 138 percent over theprojection period. Reductions in soybean oil tariffs inducea shift in the mix of imports to meal and oil. Taiwanimports large quantities of beans for domestic crushing.Over the projection period imports of beans grow by 16percent. Soybean oil imports increase by 31 percent overthis period.

World Meat OutlookWorld trade in beef, pork, and poultry products is projectedto rise by more than 47 percent in the next decade, and theUnited States is well positioned to capitalize on thisgrowing market. The primary driving force behind thisgrowth in meat trade is strong, consistent increases in realincome in developing nations that currently consume lessmeat per person than developed nations. With greaterpurchasing power, consumers in countries such as China,Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea desire to purchase agreater variety of food products, supplementing traditionalstaple grains with more meats, fruits, and vegetables.Trade liberalization is a second important factor promotinggrowth in world meat trade. Japan, South Korea, Mexico,the United States, and Canada have all signed tradeagreements in recent years that create incentives to increasethe flow of livestock products across their borders. Finally,the time lags associated with reestablishing domestic meatproduction in the FSU are expected to keep meat importsinto this region from falling in the near future.

Beef TradeIn 1996 the world beef market was rocked by the news thatBovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), “mad cowdisease,” may be linked to the human equivalent,Creutzfeld-Jakob Disease. Beef consumption in the EUfell more than 800 thousand metric tons in 1996, roughlyan 11 percent drop from 1995 levels. Beef production inthe EU, on the other hand, only declined by 5.5 percent,creating a significant buildup of beef stocks. Althoughbeef consumption in the EU is expected to recover in 1997,levels are not projected to exceed 97 percent of beefconsumption in 1995. European beef exports are alsoexpected to recover in 1997, reaching 572 thousand metrictons; however, high production costs and GATT limitationson subsidized meat exports will hamper the EU’s ability tocapture any of the growth in beef imports by Japan,

8 / Overview

Mexico, South Korea, and the Former Soviet Union.Consequently, EU beef stocks do not begin to decline untilafter 2001 as beef production gradually contracts.

Tariff reductions will play a significant role in the path ofJapanese, South Korean, and Mexican beef trade. Japanesebeef consumption in expected to grow rapidly in the late1990s as consumer confidence is restored following theBSE and E. Coli scares. Meanwhile, production isprojected to remain fairly constant, allowing the UnitedStates and Australia to capture the lion’s share of beefdemand growth. Beef consumption in South Korea andMexico is also expected to rise rapidly in the next decade,largely the result of real economic growth. Imports willsatisfy a large percentage of this rising demand, increasingover the projection period from 46 to 62 percent of beefconsumption in Korea and from 4 to 17 percent in Mexico.

Beef consumption in the FSU is also expected to growsignificantly following the economic turnaround in 1998.Continual contraction of beef production in the FSUduring the 1990s due to increased costs and poor returnshas rendered these countries incapable of satisfying theprojected growth in beef demand through domesticproduction. Consequently, until beef herds are rebuiltearly in the next century, beef imports by the FSU areexpected to rise 80 percent. After 2001, domesticproduction will gradually replace imported beef.

The U.S. cattle cycle bottomed out in 1996, and beef pricesare projected to rise throughout the rest of the 1990s.Weak domestic demand, however, will allow increases inU.S. beef production to be channeled toward exportmarkets. The United States is projected to become a netexporter of beef in 1997, with net exports rising to 427thousand metric tons by 1999. Rising U.S. beef prices willcurtail further growth in U.S. beef exports until after thecattle cycle peaks in 2001. Argentina, Australia, Brazil,Canada, and New Zealand are also able to increase theirbeef exports in the next decade; however, falling U.S. beefprices in the next century will enable the United States tobecome the second largest beef exporter by 2004.

Pork TradeChina will remain the world’s largest producer of pork inthe next decade. Pork production in China is projected toclimb more than 20 percent, spurred on by continuedgrowth in domestic consumption. The United States willreplace the EU as the world’s largest net exporter of porkby the end of this century. Abundant grain supplies,modern management practices, and relatively low inputcosts enable the United States to increase its porkproduction without significantly increasing pork prices.Thus, the United States has a competitive advantage overthe EU, Taiwan, and Eastern Europe in satisfying future

growth in pork import demand. Planned growth in meatpacking capacity and in hog production will allow Canadato increase its share of world pork trade, becoming thethird largest pork exporter by 2006. Canadian net exportsare projected to grow nearly 28 percent, reaching 370thousand metric tons by the end of the projection period.

As in the case of beef, pork imports by Japan, South Korea,and Mexico rise in response to falling trade barriers andgrowing incomes. Japanese pork imports are projected togrow more than 36 percent in the next 10 years. Despiteliberalization, domestic pork production in South Korea isexpected to gradually increase; however, imports will morethan quadruple, accounting for up to 19 percent ofdomestic consumption by 2006. Competitive U.S. pricesare expected to contribute to the more than 10-fold increasein pork imports by Mexico. The most rapid growth inMexico’s pork imports will occur in the next five years, asconsumption is expected to recover more rapidly followingthe peso crisis than pork production.

The pork sector in the FSU is expected to fare better thanthe beef industry; however, another year of economicdecline in 1997 will postpone the recovery of porkproduction until 1999. Consequently, pork imports into theFSU are projected to increase by 50 thousand metric tonsin the next two years. After 1999, domestic productiongrowth will be sufficient to satisfy additional demand, butimports are not projected to decline substantially. Note thatthe projections were completed in January 1997 and do notincorporate the March ban on pork exports from Taiwan.

Poultry TradeConsumption of poultry meat, predominantly broilers,grows faster over the next 10 years than does consumptionof either of the red meats. Poultry is attractive toconsumers in many countries as a low-cost source ofprotein; moreover, it is more widely accepted in African,Middle Eastern, and Eastern cultures than beef or pork.Despite the expectation that people all over the world willeat more poultry products in the next decade, poultry tradeis not projected to increase as rapidly or in as large avolume as beef trade because poultry production will alsorise in most countries.

China is expected to overtake the United States as theworld’s largest poultry producer by 2006. The bulk ofChina’s poultry output will be channeled into the domesticmarket; however, low labor costs in poultry processing willallow China to double its exports of poultry products toJapan and other Asian countries. Nevertheless, China isprojected to remain a net importer into the next century, asimports of broiler parts grow rapidly to satisfy the domesticdemand for poultry meat. China’s net poultry importsreach 672 thousand metric tons by 2006. Together with

Overview / 9

Hong Kong, China’s growth in poultry imports account forjust under one-third of the total change in poultry trade.

Despite the growing importance of China in world poultrytrade, the FSU becomes the largest importer of poultryproducts. Low productivity and poor returns inhibit thedomestic industry’s ability to satisfy the growing demandfor low-cost broiler meat in the FSU. Similarly, Mexico’sdebt-laden domestic poultry industry is hard pressed toexpand rapidly enough to prevent imports from the UnitedStates from capturing an increasing share of consumption.Other major poultry importers are Japan, South Korea, andSaudi Arabia; however, nearly a quarter of poultry exportsare shipped to other countries included in the Rest-of-World (ROW) category.

The world demand for poultry will be increasingly met bythe United States and Brazil. EU poultry trade in the nextdecade will be limited by GATT constraints on subsidizedexports. Likewise, increasing labor and input costs willlimit Thailand’s ability to expand broiler exports. Brazil,on the other hand, is projected to increase its broilerexports 76 percent by 2006, exporting roughly one-third asmuch as the United States. Brazilian export growth ishampered somewhat by climbing domestic poultryconsumption. U.S. poultry exports will increase by justover 1 million metric tons in the next decade, comprisingnearly 65 percent of total poultry trade in 2006.

10 / Overview

Dairy TradeAnalogous to meat products, consumption of butter,cheese, and nonfat milk solids will increase as incomes risearound the globe. Asian countries with traditionally smalldairy sectors will experience the greatest growth in dairyproduct imports. Unlike meat product trade, U.S. net tradein dairy products will not change dramatically in the nextdecade.

World butter trade is expected to expand 68 percent by2006. The bulk of butter exports will be supplied by NewZealand, the EU, and Australia. Butter production willexpand sufficiently to prevent butter prices from risingappreciably above 1996 levels. Driven in part by theexpanding fast-food industry, world cheese imports willincrease 228 thousand metric tons by 2006. Australia andNew Zealand will supply the growth in cheese importdemand, with New Zealand overtaking the EU as thenumber one cheese exporter. EU cheese exports will belimited by GATT commitments limiting subsidizedexports. Finally, nonfat dry milk (NFD) trade is projectedto increase 32 percent in the next 10 years. As with butterand cheese, Australia and New Zealand will be the largestbeneficiaries from the growth in NFD imports. EasternEurope and the United States will only marginally increasetheir exports of nonfat dry milk.

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections

Macroeconomic Assumptions

Policy Assumptions

Commodity Price Projections

Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity

Macroeconomic Assumptions

• World economic growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) is projected above 3 percent annually over the nextdecade. Along with stable economic growth of developed countries, sustained and evenly distributed economicgrowth is also projected for developing countries at a rate of 5.9 percent.

• The WEFA Group forecasts that U.S. economic growth will continue at recent levels throughout the baseline. RealGDP growth averages about 2.2 percent. This steadiness in GDP is matched by similar stability in other measuresof economic activity.

• Interest rates are predicted to continue their slow decline in 1997. This brief downward trend slows in 1998 andafter this time interest rates fluctuate at fairly low levels, averaging 0.5 percent below those of 1996.

• The WEFA Group foresees no great reduction in the U.S. federal deficit. The current budgetary imbalance remainsunchanged until the end of the decade. At that time an aging population puts upward pressure on expenditures butrelative to GDP the deficit does not increase.

• The WEFA Group anticipates low U.S. inflation, especially for producer prices in 1997 and 1998. The recent slowpace of price growth is maintained throughout the baseline and inflation fails to reach 3 percent. This projection iscontingent upon a substitution to coal as oil prices rise.

• Strong economic growth is projected for most Asian countries over the projection period. A major exception islikely to be Japan, where the mature economy is expected to grow at less than 2.5 percent in the long run.

Chinese per capita real GDP doubles in the next 10 years.

Indian real GDP growth is expected to average 7 percent over the forecast period.

Taiwan and South Korea are projected to grow at a slower rate than they did in the last decade.

• Latin America is rebounding from a 1995 recession with strong growth from Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil.Continuation of structural reforms will be the deciding factor for the potential growth of this region over the nextdecade.

• After a quick recovery from peso devaluation, Mexico is projected to exhibit growth rates of approximately 5percent for the projection period.

Real GDP growth rate of Brazil is expected to average 5 percent over the period.

• For the first time, the African economy is projected to grow by more than the world average. Even thoughpopulation growth of this region is projected to be the highest in the world, slowing population growth rates areexpected to raise per capita real GDP. Much of the income growth will be in Northern African countries.

• The recovery process in transition economies occurs earlier in Eastern European countries than in the FSU. By1997, all Eastern European countries show positive economic growth with a similar occurrence in 1998 for therepublics of the FSU.

Russia, the dominant economy of the FSU, is projected to grow at 5 percent after 1998.

Slovakia has the highest economic growth among Eastern European countries, followed byPoland.

• The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate against most developed nations’ currencies in the next 10 years, with theexception of the EU and New Zealand. The dollar is projected to strengthen against developing nations’ currencies,except those of South Korea and Taiwan.

12 / Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections

Baseline Assumptions and Price Projections / 13

Real GDP Projections

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Percentage Change from Previous Year)World 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3

Developed 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Australia 3.6 3.0 3.4 3.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 Canada 1.4 2.5 3.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.2 European Union 1.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 Japan 3.8 2.1 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4 New Zealand 2.3 2.8 2.6 1.8 2.0 2.8 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 United States 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1

Economies in Transition -1.7 3.1 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Eastern Europe 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 Bulgaria -0.3 2.2 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Czech Republic 4.7 5.6 4.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 Hungary 2.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Poland 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Romania 5.4 4.6 4.4 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Slovakia 6.0 6.3 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8

Former Soviet Union -0.3 4.2 5.6 5.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Russia -3.1 -1.1 1.0 3.1 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Ukraine -8.0 -1.5 1.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

Developing 5.1 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 Asia 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 China 9.5 9.6 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.1 India 6.5 6.9 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.4 7.2 Indonesia 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.5 Malaysia 8.5 8.2 8.2 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.8 Pakistan 5.4 4.9 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.0 South Korea 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.7 Taiwan 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.9 Thailand 7.4 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1 7.0 Vietnam 9.4 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

Latin America 3.0 4.6 4.8 4.2 4.3 4.6 5.1 5.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 Argentina 2.7 3.8 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 Brazil 3.1 5.1 5.2 4.1 4.4 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.0 Mexico 4.2 4.7 5.3 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.9 Paraguay 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

Africa 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 Algeria 5.5 5.0 4.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Egypt 2.9 3.6 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Morocco 8.0 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 Nigeria 0.6 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 South Africa 2.9 1.6 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Tunisia 6.5 4.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

Israel 4.4 2.2 4.9 5.4 5.3 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 Saudi Arabia 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

SOURCE: The WEFA Group November 1996, for all countries except the United States, which is from the WEFA Group January 1997; and all of Eastern Europe, the Former Soviet Union, Paraguay, Africa, and Saudi Arabia, which are from Project LINK November 1996.


GDP Deflator Projections

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Developed (Percentage Change from Previous Year) Australia 2.8 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Canada 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 European Union 5.3 4.9 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Japan -0.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 New Zealand 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 United States 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6

Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria 76.9 41.5 23.0 16.7 15.7 14.8 13.8 12.9 11.9 11.0 10.0 Czech Republic 8.3 7.6 5.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 Hungary 21.4 14.1 9.2 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3 Poland 21.7 17.5 11.6 9.5 9.1 8.8 8.4 8.1 7.7 7.4 7.0 Romania 38.9 21.1 26.1 19.5 18.1 16.8 15.4 14.1 12.7 11.4 10.0 Slovakia 7.2 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9

Former Soviet Union Russia 48.7 11.9 11.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 Ukraine 79.3 24.6 24.6 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.7

Developing Asia China 7.4 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.6 9.0 7.9 6.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 India 4.1 5.0 6.6 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Indonesia 7.8 7.8 7.8 6.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Malaysia 5.5 5.9 5.9 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Pakistan 9.6 10.4 8.8 9.1 8.2 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.6 South Korea 6.0 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Taiwan 2.2 2.8 3.0 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Thailand 5.4 5.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Vietnam 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

Latin America Argentina 1.7 2.6 3.6 4.7 5.4 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 Brazil 15.7 11.4 11.3 12.3 12.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 Mexico 26.5 21.3 18.8 18.5 18.6 17.2 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.6 Paraguay N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Africa Algeria 26.0 22.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 Egypt 8.4 8.0 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 Morocco 5.2 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Nigeria 20.3 15.7 13.4 12.2 11.0 9.8 8.6 7.4 6.2 5.0 3.8 South Africa 9.1 8.4 11.2 10.6 10.0 9.4 8.8 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.4 Tunisia 6.0 5.2 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Israel 11.5 12.6 9.5 7.8 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Saudi Arabia 5.0 -3.6 2.1 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3

SOURCE: The WEFA Group November 1996 for all countries except all of Eastern Europe,the Former Soviet Union, Paraguay, Africa, and Saudi Arabia, which are from Project LINK November 1996.


Exchange Rate Projections

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Developed (Percentage Change from Previous Year) Australia -5.1 -0.2 1.7 4.0 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Canada -0.1 1.5 0.2 -1.4 -2.4 -2.1 -1.8 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.6 European Union 4.4 4.9 3.2 0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 Japan 14.5 2.7 0.9 -1.8 -1.0 -1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 New Zealand -3.5 0.0 -1.4 -1.4 4.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0

Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria 144.0 31.7 13.9 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 Czech Republic -9.9 -9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hungary 21.7 14.4 8.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 Poland 10.8 12.3 9.4 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 Romania 50.7 28.1 28.3 19.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.6 Slovakia 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Former Soviet Union Russia 23.9 11.2 9.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 Ukraine 52.6 24.7 18.3 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8

Developing Asia China 0.1 3.2 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 India 8.4 7.1 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 Indonesia 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 Malaysia 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pakistan 20.0 17.4 5.8 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 South Korea 3.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9 Taiwan 2.6 -0.8 -1.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Thailand 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Vietnam 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

Latin America Argentina -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Brazil 9.7 11.5 10.5 13.2 14.4 12.6 15.1 14.5 13.9 13.3 12.7 Mexico 20.1 14.2 13.6 13.3 12.2 11.2 10.2 9.2 8.2 7.2 6.2 Paraguay 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0

Africa Algeria 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 Egypt 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Morocco 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 Nigeria 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Africa 4.1 3.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Tunisia 2.5 2.0 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9


Note: Exchange rates are relative to the U.S. dollar.SOURCE: The WEFA Group November 1996 for all countries except all of Eastern Europe,the Former Soviet Union, Paraguay, Africa, and Saudi Arabia, which are from Project LINK November 1996.

Population Projections

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006



Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Czech Republic 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Hungary 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Poland 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 Romania 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Slovakia 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

Former Soviet Union 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Russia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Ukraine 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1



Africa 2.79 2.77 2.72 2.69 2.69 2.61 2.61 2.59 2.56 2.57 2.48 Algeria 2.26 2.22 2.18 2.14 2.10 2.07 2.04 2.01 1.98 1.95 1.92 Egypt 1.92 1.89 1.87 1.85 1.82 1.81 1.80 1.79 1.77 1.75 1.73 Morocco 2.09 2.06 2.02 1.98 1.93 1.90 1.88 1.85 1.82 1.79 1.76 Nigeria 3.21 3.22 3.22 3.23 3.23 3.22 3.21 3.20 3.19 3.18 3.17 South Africa 2.64 2.63 2.63 2.62 2.61 2.60 2.59 2.58 2.56 2.54 2.52 Tunisia 1.69 1.65 1.61 1.56 1.52 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.43 1.40 1.39


SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census August 1994.


Per Capita Real GDP Projections

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006



Economies in Transition Eastern Europe Bulgaria -0.1 2.3 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 Czech Republic 4.4 5.3 4.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 Hungary 2.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 Poland 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 Romania 5.3 4.5 4.2 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Slovakia 5.5 5.7 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3

Former Soviet Union -0.8 3.7 5.1 5.2 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Russia -3.3 -1.3 0.8 2.9 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Ukraine -8.0 -1.5 1.0 3.5 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9



Africa 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 Algeria 3.2 2.8 2.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Egypt 1.0 1.7 1.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 Morocco 5.9 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 Nigeria -2.6 -1.2 -1.8 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 South Africa 0.3 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Tunisia 4.8 2.4 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1

Israel 3.0 0.8 3.5 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Saudi Arabia -1.3 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3

SOURCE: Calculated from the U.S. Bureau of the Census August 1994, and The WEFA GroupNovember 1996, for all countries except all of Eastern Europe, the Former Soviet Union, and Africa, which arecalculated from the U.S. Bureau of the Census August 1994 and Project LINK November 1996.


Policy Assumptions

• FAPRI projections incorporate provisions of the Federal Agriculture Improvement and Reform Act of 1996 (FAIR).Provisions of the act are assumed to be extended indefinitely. The projections also incorporate both the North AmericanFree Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT).

• The FAIR Act suspends price supports for food grains, feed grains, and cotton. Marketing loan rates for feed grains, foodgrains, oilseeds, and cotton are calculated according to the formulas set forth in the FAIR Act.

• Annual Acreage Reduction Programs (ARPs) and 50,0-92,85 programs are eliminated.

• The Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is continued in the current FAPRI projections, with some contracts allowedto expire, other contracts re-enrolled, and new contracts allowed by the Secretary. The ability to write new contractspushes the total number of CRP acres upwards, exceeding 33 million acres by the end of the baseline period. Under theprovisions of the FAIR Act, enrollment in the CRP is capped at 36.4 million acres.

• As mandated by the FAIR Act, the loan rate for sugarcane is set at 18 cents per pound of raw sugar and the rate for sugarbeets is set at $.229 per pound on a refined sugar basis. Forfeitures of cane sugar pledged as loan collateral will pay apenalty of $.01 per pound. Sugar marketing quotas are assumed to be triggered in fiscal years when sugar imports fallbelow 1.25 mmt. Marketing quotas are not triggered in the FAPRI projections.

• The FAIR Act specifies that the milk support program will be eliminated after 1999. The support price in 1996 is $10.35per cwt, and is decreased to $9.90 per cwt by 1999. Only nonfat dry milk is removed under price support activity beforethe elimination of the program in 1999. Dairy producer assessments are eliminated. The Dairy Export Incentive Program(DEIP) program will continue and will receive full funding to operate at WTO maximum levels.

• No EU enlargement and no further CAP reforms are assumed.

Set-aside is reduced to 5 percent in 1997/98, increases to 10 percent for 1998/99 and thereafter.

Cereal intervention prices are assumed to be held at 119 ECU per mt and cereal compensation is assumed toremain at 54 ECU per mt.

The beef support price is assumed to remain at 3.48 ECU per kg.

The pig meat basic price is assumed to remain at 1.57 ECU per kg.

• Support prices in Japan are assumed to be frozen indefinitely at current levels as Japan is expected to be in compliancewith GATT AMS reduction commitments. Market access is implemented according to GATT requirements and notariffication of rice trade barriers is implemented. The tariff reduction for beef continues.

• The Chinese livestock sector is expected to continue to undergo structural adjustments in the next decade due to marketpressures promoting modernization. The following structural adjustments are assumed for the swine and poultry sectors.

Backyard swine production share decreases from 79.2 to 71.6 percent.

Specialized household swine production increases from 10.7 to 21.1 percent.

State farm swine production shares decrease from 10.1 to 7.3 percent.

Commercial poultry production increases from 30.9 to 41.5 percent.

Share of village poultry production decreases from 69.1 to 58.5 percent.

• For both swine and poultry, feed conversion efficiency is assumed to increase 1 percent annually over the next 10 years.

• Chinese grain imports are limited to less than 10 percent of domestic production. This baseline does not make anyassumption concerning China’s accession to the WTO.


• Unilateral liberalization is assumed for a number of countries, including the elimination of the Maize Board and reducedproducer support in South Africa, liberalization of import regimes by Tunisia and Egypt, and removal of export taxes inBrazil and Argentina.

• In the FSU, the transformation to market economies is assumed to continue. Policies are assumed to be successful inavoiding a further breakdown of the production and distribution systems. Price liberalization is assumed to proceed overthe next several years.



Agricultural Policy Assumptions

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

European Union Policy Prices (ECUs per Metric Ton) Cereal Intervention 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 119 Rice Intervention 374 351 333 315 298 298 298 298 298 298 298 Oilseed Reference Price 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 196 White Sugar Intervention 632 632 632 632 632 632 632 632 632 632 632 Raw Sugar Intervention 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 467 A Beet Minimum 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 B Beet Minimum 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Grains Compensatory Payment 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54

Subsidized Export Limits (Million Metric Tons) Wheat 20.4 19.2 18.0 16.8 15.6 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 Coarse Grains 13.7 13.1 12.6 12.0 11.4 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8

Production Aid (ECUs per Hectare) Oilseeds 412 412 412 412 412 412 412 412 412 412 412

(1,000 Hectares) Oilseed Base Area 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482 5,482

Set-aside Rate \a (Percent) Grains, Protein Crops 12 10 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Oilseeds 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Japan Policy Prices (1,000 Yen per Metric Ton) Wheat Purchase 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 152 Wheat Resale 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 Barley Purchase 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 131 Barley Resale 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45

United States Policy Prices (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) Corn Loan 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 74 Wheat Loan 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 Barley Loan 57 57 58 58 60 61 62 62 61 60 60 Rice Loan 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 143 Cotton Loan 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 1,145 Soybean Loan 181 183 193 193 193 193 187 185 185 187 190 Sugar Loan 517 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505 505

(Million Hectares) Conservation Reserve 14.46 14.28 13.49 12.12 12.42 12.91 13.55 13.70 13.74 13.74 13.74

a/ Average set-aside prior to exemption for small farms.


Agricultural Policy Assumptions (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

European Union Policy Prices (ECUs per Metric Ton) Beef Intervention 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475

Pork Basic 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 Sheep Meat Basic 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041

Intervention Purchase Limits (Thousand Metric Tons) Beef 400 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350 350

GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports Beef 1,074 1,011 948 885 822 822 822 822 822 822 822 Pork 522 503 483 463 444 444 444 444 444 444 444 Poultry 405 375 345 316 286 286 286 286 286 286 286

(Million Metric Tons) Milk Delivery Quota: E15 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117

(ECUs per Metric Ton) Target Price for Milk 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 Intervention Price for Butter 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 3,282 Intervention Price for SMP 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055

GATT Maximum Subsidized Exports (Thousand Metric Tons) Butter 470 452 435 417 399 399 399 399 399 399 399 SMP 323 310 298 285 273 273 273 273 273 273 273 Cheese 405 384 363 342 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 Other Milk Products 1,140 1,095 1,049 1,004 958 958 958 958 958 958 958

Canada /b (Million Hecto Liters) Industrial Milk Quota 44.2 44.2 44.0 44.4 44.4 44.6 45.2 46.0 46.9 47.8 48.5 Allowed Over-quota 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4

(Canadian Cents per Liter) Target Price for Industrial Milk 54.2 54.8 55.5 56.4 57.3 58.7 60.2 61.6 63.3 65.2 66.9 Assumed Processing Margin 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.3 Direct Subsidy 3.8 3.0 2.3 1.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

(Canadian Dollars per Kg) Support Price, Butter 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 Support Price, NFD 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.6

United States Export Enhancement (Million U.S. Dollars, Fiscal Year) Program Expenditures 350 100 500 550 579 478 478 478 478 478 478 Wheat 214 60 294 313 364 364 364 364 364 364 364 Barley 19 5 26 28 38 38 38 38 38 38 38

b/ Canadian quota and target price are endogenous in FAPRI model. Numbers listed here areAgriculture and Agri-food Canada's Medium Term Outlook numbers, and are presented for reference only.


Agricultural Policy Assumptions (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

China Swine (Percent) Backyard Rise in Feed 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Conversion Efficiency Production Share 79.2 78.4 77.6 76.9 76.1 75.3 74.6 73.8 73.1 72.3 71.6 Grain Share of Total Feed /c 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Specialized Household Rise in Feed 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Conversion Efficiency Production Share 10.7 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.2 18.4 19.7 21.1 Grain Share of Total Feed /c 90.5 90.9 91.4 91.8 92.3 92.7 93.2 93.7 94.1 94.6 95.1

State Farm Rise in Feed 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Conversion Efficiency Production Share 10.1 10.1 10.1 1.0 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.3 Grain Share of Total Feed /c 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Poultry Commercial Rise in Feed 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Conversion Efficiency Production Share 30.9 31.8 32.8 33.8 34.8 35.8 36.9 38.0 39.1 40.3 41.5 Grain Share of Total Feed /c 95.6 96.1 96.5 97.0 97.5 97.9 98.4 98.9 99.3 100.0 100.0

Village Rise in Feed 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Conversion Efficiency Production Share 69.1 68.2 67.2 66.2 65.2 64.2 63.1 62.0 60.9 59.7 58.5 Grain Share of Total Feed /c 57.0 58.7 60.5 62.3 64.2 66.1 68.1 70.1 72.2 74.4 76.6

Feed mix held constant at 1995 level.c/ Grain includes rice, wheat bran, brewers' grains, and other grain by products.

Commodity Price Projections

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Wheat (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB U.S. Gulf 209 190 152 149 163 163 169 169 169 169 171 CIF Rotterdam 245 223 179 175 191 191 199 199 198 199 201 Canadian Thunder Bay 187 211 162 158 175 174 183 183 185 186 188 Australian Wheat Board 197 179 137 134 148 148 156 156 158 159 161

Rice FOB U.S. Houston 431 441 408 406 400 410 414 419 422 437 449 FOB Bangkok 100B NPQ 367 340 319 314 306 314 316 318 319 332 341

Corn FOB U.S. Gulf 169 123 107 107 109 110 115 118 120 124 127 CIF Rotterdam 190 138 120 120 123 124 129 132 134 139 142

Barley FOB Pacific Northwest 159 144 133 128 131 135 137 136 137 140 142

Sorghum FOB U.S. Gulf 159 119 108 107 110 112 116 118 120 123 125

Soybeans FOB U.S. Gulf 267 270 247 232 230 235 237 241 245 250 258 CIF Rotterdam 304 305 282 267 266 271 273 276 280 285 293

Soybean Oil FOB Decatur 546 510 492 465 453 461 468 490 509 531 557 FOB Rotterdam 575 531 508 477 464 473 481 505 526 551 580

Soybean Meal FOB Decatur 44% 246 240 217 207 210 215 217 216 216 218 222 CIF Rotterdam 256 273 233 224 226 231 233 231 232 234 237

Rapeseed CIF Rotterdam 296 302 299 282 279 293 293 306 314 322 327 Cash Vancouver 314 333 326 307 304 319 320 334 342 351 357

Rapeseed Oil FOB Rotterdam 566 557 503 457 443 459 476 511 543 586 628

Rapeseed Meal FOB Hamburg 180 187 156 150 152 155 156 155 156 157 159

Sugar FOB Caribbean 306 273 300 301 272 282 274 282 287 296 303 New York Spot 502 498 495 499 502 504 506 509 511 514 516

High-Fructose Corn Syrup Chicago Wholesale 376 408 406 397 399 402 406 411 415 419 424

Cotton Cotlook A Index 1,886 1,751 1,707 1,653 1,665 1,712 1,751 1,766 1,773 1,785 1,804 U.S. Farm 1,695 1,573 1,466 1,424 1,433 1,470 1,500 1,512 1,517 1,527 1,541



Commodity Price Projections (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Beef Nebraska Direct Fed-Steer 1,436 1,448 1,548 1,657 1,751 1,815 1,731 1,607 1,546 1,475 1,508 U.S. Retail 6,178 6,244 6,690 7,025 7,293 7,531 7,439 7,290 7,277 7,234 7,380

Pork Iowa-Southern Minnesota Barrows and Gilts 1,176 1,186 1,022 927 1,001 1,081 1,016 945 1,027 1,106 1,023 U.S. Retail 4,871 4,913 4,848 4,819 5,063 5,310 5,295 5,246 5,486 5,651 5,641

Chicken U.S. 12-City Wholesale 1,351 1,273 1,254 1,260 1,283 1,298 1,285 1,275 1,279 1,296 1,297

Turkey U.S. Wholesale 1,466 1,450 1,492 1,488 1,514 1,505 1,486 1,456 1,460 1,467 1,435

Milk U.S. All Milk 325 302 298 295 286 286 287 289 288 292 291 Canadian Target, Industrial 410 410 418 435 457 482 502 520 539 559 575 Canadian Fluid Milk, Ontario 472 473 483 505 532 563 588 610 634 659 679 Australian Industrial Milk 167 159 159 155 153 149 147 144 142 140 138 Australian Fluid Milk 393 375 373 364 359 352 345 339 334 329 324

Cheese FOB Northern Europe 2,371 2,126 2,191 2,281 2,397 2,412 2,439 2,462 2,499 2,549 2,600 U.S. Wholesale 3,288 3,076 3,056 3,033 2,950 2,949 2,952 2,975 2,967 3,011 3,002 Canadian Wholesale 4,829 4,897 5,026 5,279 5,547 5,789 6,056 6,326 6,434 6,518 6,573 Canadian Retail 9,119 9,401 9,804 10,502 11,190 11,819 12,552 13,323 13,588 13,795 13,931 Australian Export 3,007 2,871 2,857 2,784 2,751 2,691 2,643 2,597 2,555 2,515 2,480

Butter FOB Northern Europe 1,692 1,661 1,630 1,583 1,577 1,570 1,570 1,585 1,605 1,630 1,656 U.S. Wholesale 2,212 1,772 1,690 1,660 1,674 1,620 1,582 1,545 1,536 1,514 1,500 Canadian Retail 4,334 4,270 4,262 4,322 4,429 4,524 4,482 4,392 4,287 4,167 4,033 Australian Export 1,712 1,634 1,565 1,473 1,422 1,381 1,350 1,320 1,295 1,275 1,254

Nonfat Dry Milk FOB Northern Europe 2,016 1,853 1,834 1,816 1,860 1,885 1,915 1,913 1,939 1,982 2,027 U.S. Wholesale 2,693 2,534 2,329 2,248 2,127 2,162 2,267 2,298 2,342 2,325 2,329 Canadian Retail 6,847 6,903 7,133 7,542 8,046 8,641 9,217 9,770 10,394 11,038 11,611 Australian Export 2,086 1,950 1,869 1,784 1,761 1,743 1,733 1,692 1,661 1,643 1,634

Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Wheat (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton, Marketing Year) EU Intervention 190 180 168 167 168 168 169 170 171 172 173 Japanese Purchase 1,505 1,391 1,367 1,373 1,392 1,406 1,421 1,435 1,450 1,464 1,479 U.S. Target 147 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FOB U.S. Gulf 209 190 152 149 163 163 169 169 169 169 171 Canadian Thunder Bay 187 211 162 158 175 174 183 183 185 186 188 Australian Wheat Board 197 179 137 134 148 148 156 156 158 159 161

Barley EU Intervention 190 180 168 167 168 168 169 170 171 172 173 Japanese Purchase 1,297 1,198 1,177 1,183 1,200 1,212 1,224 1,236 1,249 1,261 1,274 U.S. Target 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FOB U.S. Pacific Northwest 159 144 133 128 131 135 137 136 137 140 142

Corn EU Intervention 190 180 168 167 168 168 169 170 171 172 173 U.S. Target 108 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FOB U.S. Gulf 169 123 107 107 109 110 115 118 120 124 127

Rice Japanese Purchase 2,708 2,503 2,432 2,416 2,423 2,420 2,416 2,412 2,408 2,403 2,398 U.S. Target (rough) 236 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FOB Bangkok 100B NPQ 367 340 319 314 306 314 316 318 319 332 341

Rapeseed EU Reference 361 378 351 341 335 332 328 326 325 321 318 Cash Vancouver 314 333 326 307 304 319 320 334 342 351 357

Soybeans EU Reference 361 378 351 341 335 332 328 326 325 321 318 U.S. Loan Rate 181 183 193 193 193 193 187 185 185 187 190 FOB U.S. Gulf 267 270 247 232 230 235 237 241 245 250 258

Cotton U.S. Target 1,607 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cotlook A Index 1,886 1,751 1,707 1,653 1,665 1,712 1,751 1,766 1,773 1,785 1,804


Policy Prices and World Prices by Commodity (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Beef (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) EU Intervention 4,335 4,048 4,004 4,028 4,048 4,068 4,089 4,109 4,130 4,151 4,172 Japanese Wholesale Dairy Beef 7,790 7,650 7,955 8,193 8,233 8,282 7,908 7,470 7,261 7,015 7,116 Wagyu Beef 14,906 15,137 16,372 16,804 15,673 14,543 14,221 14,659 15,419 16,032 16,334 Nebraska Direct Fed Steer Price 1,436 1,448 1,548 1,657 1,751 1,815 1,731 1,607 1,546 1,475 1,508 U.S. Retail 6,178 6,244 6,690 7,025 7,293 7,531 7,439 7,290 7,277 7,234 7,380

Pork EU Basic 1,883 1,758 1,739 1,750 1,758 1,767 1,776 1,785 1,794 1,803 1,812 Japanese Wholesale 4,457 4,347 4,350 4,302 4,128 3,937 3,818 3,789 3,778 3,764 3,764 U.S. Barrows, Gilts 1,176 1,186 1,022 927 1,001 1,081 1,016 945 1,027 1,106 1,023 U.S. Retail 4,871 4,913 4,848 4,819 5,063 5,310 5,295 5,246 5,486 5,651 5,641

Broilers EU Producer 1,586 1,475 1,421 1,404 1,410 1,425 1,445 1,462 1,483 1,502 1,519 Japanese Wholesale 2,167 2,084 2,089 2,105 2,093 2,084 2,056 2,042 2,049 2,062 2,071 U.S. 12-City Wholesale 1,351 1,273 1,254 1,260 1,283 1,298 1,285 1,275 1,279 1,296 1,297 U.S. Retail 3,461 3,314 3,282 3,291 3,309 3,314 3,307 3,258 3,296 3,318 3,317

Butter EU Intervention 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 U.S. CCC Purchase 1,433 1,433 1,433 1,433 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. Wholesale 2,212 1,772 1,690 1,660 1,674 1,620 1,582 1,545 1,536 1,514 1,500 FOB Northern Europe 1,692 1,661 1,630 1,583 1,577 1,570 1,570 1,585 1,605 1,630 1,656 Canadian Support 3,857 3,800 3,792 3,846 3,941 4,025 4,007 3,950 3,880 3,795 3,697 Canadian Retail 4,334 4,270 4,262 4,322 4,429 4,524 4,482 4,392 4,287 4,167 4,033 Australian Export 1,712 1,634 1,565 1,473 1,422 1,381 1,350 1,320 1,295 1,275 1,254

Nonfat Dry Milk EU Intervention 2,564 2,394 2,368 2,382 2,394 2,406 2,418 2,430 2,443 2,455 2,467 U.S. CCC Purchase 2,347 2,308 2,266 2,225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. Wholesale 2,693 2,534 2,329 2,248 2,127 2,162 2,267 2,298 2,342 2,325 2,329 FOB Northern Europe 2,016 1,853 1,834 1,816 1,860 1,885 1,915 1,913 1,939 1,982 2,027 Canadian Support 3,045 3,079 3,194 3,391 3,630 3,912 4,184 4,443 4,735 5,033 5,297 Canadian Retail 6,847 6,903 7,133 7,542 8,046 8,641 9,217 9,770 10,394 11,038 11,611 Australian Export 2,086 1,950 1,869 1,784 1,761 1,743 1,733 1,692 1,661 1,643 1,634

Cheese U.S. CCC Purchase 2,524 2,492 2,459 2,426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. Wholesale 3,288 3,076 3,056 3,033 2,950 2,949 2,952 2,975 2,967 3,011 3,002 FOB Northern Europe 2,371 2,126 2,191 2,281 2,397 2,412 2,439 2,462 2,499 2,549 2,600 Canadian Wholesale 4,829 4,897 5,026 5,279 5,547 5,789 6,056 6,326 6,434 6,518 6,573 Canadian Retail 9,119 9,401 9,804 10,502 11,190 11,819 12,552 13,323 13,588 13,795 13,931 Australian Export 3,007 2,871 2,857 2,784 2,751 2,691 2,643 2,597 2,555 2,515 2,480

Milk EU Target 399 373 369 371 373 375 377 378 380 382 384 U.S. Support 228 225 222 218 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 U.S. Farm 325 302 298 295 286 286 287 289 288 292 291 Canadian Target, Industrial 410 410 418 435 457 482 502 520 539 559 575 Canadian Fluid Milk, Ontario 472 473 483 505 532 563 588 610 634 659 679 Australian Industrial Milk 167 159 159 155 153 149 147 144 142 140 138 Australian Fluid Milk 393 375 373 364 359 352 345 339 334 329 324


World Grain and Oilseed Aggregates

World Grain and Oilseed Aggregates

• World crop area (grain and oilseed) is projected to increase from 800 mha in 1996/97 to 818 mha by 2005/06. Oilseedarea accounts for more than 80 percent of this increase.

• World grain production and consumption grows at an average of 1 percent annually, adding a small amount to thestocks.

• World grain stock-to-use ratio is expected to remain around 15 percent in the long run.

• Over the projection period, world grain trade is projected to increase by 35 percent.

• Expansion in the world oilseed area harvested is expected to continue for the projection period. The total harvested areaunder oilseed crops is expected to reach 119 mha by 2005/06 from 104 mha in 1996/97. Consequently, the total produc-tion of selected oilseeds is projected to reach 230 mmt by 2005/06, with a similar increase in oilseed crush.

• Oilseed meal consumption is expected to increase sharply from the current 122 mmt to nearly 150 mmt by the end of theprojection period. Among different oilseed meals, the largest increase is expected in soybean meal consumption, primarilydriven by the expansion of the Chinese meat sector.

• Increasing incomes in less developed countries play a crucial role in the more than 16 mmt increase in vegetable oilconsumption by 2005/06. Increasing oil demand from developing countries puts pressure on stocks in the early years ofthe projection, although stock buildup occurs again in the later years. Vegetable oil prices are projected to fall in the earlyprojection years but are expected to strengthen towards the end of the projection period.

30 / Grain and Oilseed Aggregates

Grain and Oilseed Aggregates / 31

World Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(Million Hectares)Area Harvested 678 696 695 692 693 694 694 696 697 698 699

(Metric Tons per Hectare)Yield 2.51 2.64 2.66 2.68 2.72 2.75 2.79 2.82 2.86 2.89 2.92

(Million Metric Tons)Beginning Stocks 301 244 277 290 290 291 292 292 295 298 300Production 1,702 1,840 1,848 1,858 1,883 1,912 1,936 1,963 1,990 2,015 2,041Consumption 1,759 1,808 1,835 1,857 1,882 1,911 1,935 1,961 1,987 2,013 2,039Trade /a 170 164 180 185 190 195 199 205 211 216 221Ending Stocks 244 277 290 290 291 292 292 295 298 300 302

(Percent)Stock to Use Ratio 13.89 15.30 15.79 15.62 15.44 15.27 15.10 15.03 14.99 14.89 14.78

a/ Excludes intraregional trade.

World Total Oilseed Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Area Harvested (Million Hectares) Soybean 61 63 65 66 66 66 67 67 68 69 69 Rapeseed 24 21 23 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 27 Sunflower seed 21 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 22 23 23 Total 106 104 108 110 111 112 113 114 116 118 119

Production (Million Metric Tons) Soybean 124 132 138 142 143 146 149 152 155 158 161 Rapeseed 35 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 37 38 40 Sunflower seed 26 23 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 30 Total 185 185 195 200 203 206 211 215 220 225 230

Crush Soybean 110 114 117 119 122 124 127 129 132 135 137 Rapeseed 30 28 29 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 36 Sunflower seed 22 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 26 27 Total 163 164 168 172 175 179 183 187 191 195 199

Trade /a Soybean 28.71 30.03 30.45 30.90 31.11 31.36 31.68 31.97 32.34 32.75 33.15 Rapeseed 2.69 2.42 2.55 2.76 2.90 3.00 3.05 3.15 3.24 3.29 3.37 Sunflower seed 1.12 1.25 1.74 1.73 1.87 2.01 2.17 2.26 2.33 2.40 2.48 Total 33.47 33.70 34.74 35.38 35.88 36.37 36.90 37.38 37.90 38.44 39.00

Soybean Meal 27.08 27.93 29.48 29.87 30.32 30.85 31.59 32.03 32.51 32.97 33.64 Rapeseed Meal 2.45 2.46 2.63 2.69 2.72 2.76 2.84 2.89 3.01 3.17 3.36 Sunflower Meal 2.06 1.75 1.88 1.86 1.86 1.87 1.86 1.95 2.05 2.09 2.12 Total 31.60 32.13 33.99 34.42 34.91 35.48 36.29 36.87 37.57 38.22 39.12

Soybean Oil 3.88 4.46 4.73 4.86 4.97 5.10 5.22 5.34 5.48 5.61 5.78 Rapeseed Oil 1.16 1.25 1.43 1.41 1.49 1.56 1.62 1.66 1.70 1.73 1.77 Sunflower Oil 1.91 1.85 1.83 1.88 1.96 2.03 2.11 2.19 2.29 2.37 2.45 Total 6.95 7.56 8.00 8.15 8.42 8.68 8.96 9.20 9.47 9.71 10.00


32 / Grain and Oilseed Aggregates

Grain and Oilseed Aggregates / 33

World Wheat

• Responding to high prices in 1995/96, world wheat area increased to a record level of approximately 230 mha in 1996/97(an additional 10 mha over 1995/96). Additional area and favorable weather in most wheat producing regions resulted inincreased production of 580 mmt (44 mmt higher than the previous year). This increase in production would have beenmuch higher without a drought in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

• Through 1997, world wheat area only declines by less than 1 percent because of the reduced set-aside. Two years ofincreased production depress the price of U.S. HRW wheat at the Gulf ports to $171 per mt in 1997 and $150 per mt in thefollowing year. As price drops, wheat is projected to lose area to competing crops but, after 2001, world wheat area isexpected to stabilize between 227 and 228 ha as price recovers. Even though area decreases in the next few years andrecovers slightly after 2001, production is projected to increase at 1.1 to 1.3 percent annually through yield growth.

• For the United States, weather problems during the fall planting season coupled with lower prices resulted in lower winterwheat seeding in the fall of 1996 and as a result, 1997 wheat acreage declines from 1995/96 levels. Declining prices ofcompeting crops brings some land back into wheat in 1998. In the longer term, wheat area ranges from 30 to 31 mha.During the period 1996 to 2001, U.S. wheat exports strengthen (25.8 mmt to 34 mmt) mainly because the EU faceslimitations on subsidized sales of wheat products under the GATT agreement. But after 2001, U.S. wheat exports remainflat because higher world prices relative to the EU wheat price enables the EU to export without an export subsidy.

• Argentine wheat area increased by 1.8 mha to 6.6 mha in 1996/97 because of the high world price. Higher area combinedwith record yields resulted in 6.3 mmt additional production that made its way into the export channel. Wheat area isprojected to decline by 1 mha as the price drops in the next few years but it is highly unlikely that it will reach the 1995/96level of 4.8 mha. Higher area and 1.5 percent average annual yield growth in the next 10 years contribute to the reemer-gence of Argentina as a major exporter with approximately 10 percent of the market share (9 to 10 mmt of exports).

• Australian farmers responded to the high price in 1996/97 by adding 1.4 mha so that wheat area reached 11.1 mha.Higher area combined with good growing conditions resulted in a 4.5 mmt increase in production relative to the 1995/96production of 17 mmt. Wheat area is projected to decline moderately as prices decrease in the next few years. Exports areexpected to remain in the 13 to 14 mmt range.

• In addition to higher area, a record yield in 1996/97 increased Canadian wheat production to 30.5 mmt compared with 25mmt in 1995/96. Wheat area is expected to decline in the next few years because of competition from canola but it isexpected to recover to just below the 1996/97 area as the price recovers after 2001. With a stagnant domestic demand,wheat exports are projected to increase steadily from 17.7 mmt to 20.5 mmt by 2005.

• Similar to Canada, the EU also experienced higher wheat area and record yield in 1996/97, resulting in an increase inproduction of 13 mmt to 99 mmt. Because of the record wheat crop in many importing regions, EU wheat exports arelikely to be sluggish in 1996/97. During the projection period, cereal intervention prices are assumed to remain at 119ECU per mt and cereal compensation is assumed to remain at 54 ECU per mt. The set-aside requirements for cereals,oilseeds, and protein crops have been reduced to 5 percent in 1997. However, as wheat price weakens in the longer term,the EU is assumed to increase the set-aside to 10 percent. With higher carryover stocks in 1996/97 and a lower set-aside(5 percent) in 1997/98, the EU is expected to be aggressive in export markets in disposing of its surplus. After 2001,world prices are again expected to be high enough so that the EU can export wheat without subsidies, enabling this regionto export without being constrained by GATT commitments.

• Eastern European wheat production decreased 6.7 mmt to 26.36 mmt in 1996/97 because of a drought, causing it toimport about 1.2 mmt of wheat. Area is projected to be stable over the next 10 years and yield growth is expected to keeppace with increasing domestic use, resulting in exports of approximately 3 mmt per year through 2005/06.

• With high carryover stocks and a normal crop in 1996/97, India is expected to export a small amount of wheat in 1996. Itis not projected that this country will remain a consistent net exporter, but imports will continue to be a relatively smallproportion of supplies.

36 / Wheat

• Developments in the FSU remain an important source of uncertainty over the projection period. This year with high areaand better yields, Russian wheat production was 5 mmt higher than the winter-damaged 1995/96 crop. Because of higherproduction, wheat imports are expected to decrease to 2.5 mmt in 1996/97. During our projection period, Russian importsare expected to decline because of lower feed use and because of a steady increase in production through yield growth thatkeeps pace with domestic use. Wheat production in Ukraine decreased in 1996/97 as a result of drought. Improvedproduction leads to the Ukraine returning to a net exporter position throughout the projection period.

• Along with many other wheat-producing countries, China also witnessed a record wheat crop in 1996/97, with its importsdeclining to a record low of 5.8 mmt. With high income growth, per capita wheat consumption is projected to rise slowlyduring our projection period from 88.8 kg per year to 90.6 kg per year over the baseline period. Even with a decline ofwheat area, production increases are projected to keep pace with population growth and import requirements will be stableat 10 to 11 mmt.

• Japan has historically been a consistent source of import demand. This stability persists throughout the projection periodwith imports growing by less than 1 percent each year. The annual change in import growth in High-Income East Asiareaches almost 5 percent over the later part of the forecast and imports are 8.5 mmt at the end of the projection period.

• The Northern African countries of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia have historically imported a large portion of their wheatsupplies. Over the projection period oil-exporting countries have the means to purchase grains. Algerian imports grow byan annual average of 3 percent; Moroccan imports grow by an annual average of 7 percent; and Tunisia, which recentlyallowed private traders to import, is projected to have an annual growth rate of 5 percent. Egypt, which has also liberal-ized its import regime and allowed private traders to participate, is expected to increase its wheat imports by an annualaverage of 3 percent.

• Wheat consumption increases in Other African and Middle Eastern countries are expected to outrun production growthand imports will have to expand over the next 10 years to meet their needs. Much of this import growth will occur in oil-exporting countries who have the means to purchase grain. Sub-Saharan African nations have the highest populationgrowth rates in the world. Per capita wheat consumption likely will decline over time in this region.

• Brazil’s import growth is projected to continue over the projection period at an annual rate of more than 2.4 percent.Limited production prospects, strong population growth, and economic recovery are the main driving forces behind thisstrong import growth.

• Other Latin American countries are likely to continue relying heavily on imports to meet domestic wheat requirements.However, continuing debt problems are expected to constrain their ability to buy on the world market. Consequently,imports are projected to increase by only 2 mmt over the next 10 years.

• Newly industrializing Asian countries are expected to continue to increase wheat imports due to limited productioncapabilities. Wheat imports are projected to increase from 6.6 to 8.4 mmt by the end of the projection period.

Wheat / 37

38 / Wheat

Wheat Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (Million Metric Tons) Argentina 4.95 11.00 9.55 9.00 8.85 8.95 9.08 9.31 9.50 9.74 9.98 Australia 12.78 13.48 14.92 15.37 14.71 14.02 13.66 13.53 13.55 13.70 13.94 Canada 15.88 17.70 18.91 18.52 18.86 19.82 20.22 20.42 20.58 20.61 20.56 Eastern Europe 3.12 -1.22 2.75 3.50 3.34 3.21 3.06 2.90 2.72 2.53 2.32 European Union 10.86 12.46 15.36 13.16 10.92 11.49 12.28 13.85 14.83 16.29 18.21 Ukraine 0.90 0.30 0.75 0.90 1.04 2.01 1.65 1.94 2.54 2.95 3.03 United States 30.47 23.95 26.05 28.66 31.49 31.54 31.72 31.62 31.75 31.60 31.77

Total Net Exports 78.96 77.67 88.29 89.10 89.21 91.04 91.68 93.57 95.47 97.42 99.80

Net Importers Japan 5.70 5.90 6.04 6.07 6.09 6.12 6.16 6.19 6.23 6.27 6.32 Russia 4.00 2.00 2.26 1.00 0.58 0.47 0.42 0.36 0.35 0.36 0.55 Other Former Soviet Union 1.69 1.40 1.69 2.37 2.53 2.46 2.44 2.38 2.39 2.37 2.38 Other Western Europe 0.40 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.66 Developing 67.45 64.54 73.93 77.67 77.99 79.97 80.63 82.54 84.37 86.27 88.40 China 11.68 5.80 9.62 11.40 11.09 11.63 11.14 11.34 11.13 10.86 10.80 High-Income East Asia 4.10 6.61 6.48 6.57 6.60 6.70 6.90 7.23 7.60 7.98 8.38 India -0.57 -1.17 1.39 1.47 1.63 1.79 1.60 1.67 1.94 2.28 2.55 Other Asia 11.88 12.95 14.34 14.85 15.09 15.32 15.49 15.73 15.93 16.16 16.44 Brazil 5.60 5.20 5.46 5.57 5.68 5.81 5.92 6.04 6.17 6.30 6.45 Mexico 1.25 1.75 1.59 1.70 1.74 1.76 1.80 1.85 1.92 2.00 2.09 Other Latin America 7.12 7.59 7.70 8.09 8.32 8.53 8.70 8.89 9.09 9.29 9.51 Algeria 3.00 3.50 4.21 4.32 4.40 4.54 4.66 4.82 4.99 5.16 5.34 Egypt 6.00 6.00 6.24 6.33 6.46 6.63 6.82 7.04 7.29 7.57 7.88 Morocco 2.35 1.00 1.33 1.76 1.81 1.89 1.93 1.99 2.11 2.23 2.25 Tunisia 0.95 0.50 0.93 0.98 1.02 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.32 1.39 Other Africa/Middle East 14.09 14.82 14.64 14.64 14.16 14.31 14.56 14.74 14.96 15.13 15.32 Rest of World 0.42 0.42 0.45 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49 Residual -0.70 2.91 3.40 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Total Net Imports 78.96 77.67 88.29 89.10 89.21 91.04 91.68 93.57 95.47 97.42 99.80

Wheat Prices (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) U.S. FOB Gulf 209.00 190.31 151.96 148.51 162.67 162.65 169.01 169.20 168.86 168.98 170.85 Canadian Thunder Bay 187.35 211.02 162.06 158.28 174.64 174.40 183.31 183.33 184.68 186.00 187.99 Australian Wheat Board 196.78 178.65 136.85 133.89 148.10 148.12 155.95 156.19 157.55 158.90 160.81 CIF Rotterdam 245.26 223.47 178.74 174.72 191.23 191.20 198.62 198.85 198.45 198.59 200.77

Wheat / 39

40 / Wheat

Wheat / 41

42 / Wheat

World Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(Million Hectares)Area Harvested 219.74 230.00 228.71 226.27 225.50 227.11 226.95 227.99 228.09 228.49 228.68


(Million Metric Tons)Beginning Stocks 117.95 103.22 111.50 115.06 111.97 109.95 110.39 111.03 113.22 114.88 116.82Production 536.88 579.59 582.13 580.71 585.81 596.78 603.48 613.15 620.53 628.82 636.73Consumption 551.61 571.32 578.56 583.80 587.83 596.35 602.84 610.96 618.87 626.88 635.15Trade /a 78.96 77.67 88.29 89.10 89.21 91.04 91.68 93.57 95.47 97.42 99.80Ending Stocks 103.22 111.50 115.06 111.97 109.95 110.39 111.03 113.22 114.88 116.82 118.40



U.S. Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(Million Hectares) Area Harvested 24.66 25.44 25.14 26.38 26.24 27.07 26.82 27.09 27.04 26.98 26.89

(Metric Tons per Hectare) Yield 2.41 2.44 2.59 2.59 2.60 2.62 2.64 2.66 2.68 2.69 2.71

(Million Metric Tons) Production 59.40 62.10 65.14 68.25 68.36 71.01 70.82 72.00 72.33 72.61 72.76 Beginning Stocks 13.80 10.24 12.77 14.62 15.81 14.64 14.96 14.38 14.45 14.57 14.65 Imports 1.85 2.04 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.18 1.91 1.91 1.91 1.91 Total Supply 75.05 74.38 80.36 85.32 86.61 88.10 87.95 88.29 88.69 89.08 89.32 Feed, Residual 4.14 8.15 9.33 9.90 9.13 9.75 9.59 9.48 9.15 9.14 8.85 Seed 2.83 2.83 2.83 2.82 2.92 2.90 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.94 Food, Other 24.06 24.77 25.57 26.11 26.37 26.83 27.16 27.58 28.00 28.42 28.82 Exports 33.78 25.85 28.01 30.67 33.56 33.66 33.90 33.85 34.03 33.94 34.17 Total Use 64.81 61.60 65.74 69.51 71.98 73.14 73.58 73.83 74.12 74.43 74.77 Ending Stocks 10.24 12.77 14.62 15.81 14.64 14.96 14.38 14.45 14.57 14.65 14.56

Argentine Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 9.20 15.50 14.09 13.70 13.53 13.65 13.78 14.04 14.25 14.51 14.79Beginning Stocks 0.15 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65Total Supply 9.35 15.65 14.33 14.00 13.88 14.05 14.23 14.54 14.80 15.11 15.44Domestic Use 4.25 4.40 4.49 4.66 4.63 4.64 4.65 4.68 4.70 4.72 4.76Net Exports 4.95 11.00 9.55 9.00 8.85 8.95 9.08 9.31 9.50 9.74 9.98Total Use 9.20 15.40 14.04 13.65 13.48 13.60 13.73 13.99 14.20 14.46 14.74Ending Stocks 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

Australian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 16.98 21.50 19.04 18.99 18.66 18.43 18.29 18.32 18.47 18.74 19.08Beginning Stocks 2.37 2.95 6.47 6.12 5.20 4.55 4.29 4.18 4.16 4.19 4.26Total Supply 19.34 24.45 25.51 25.11 23.86 22.98 22.58 22.50 22.62 22.92 23.34Domestic Use 3.62 4.50 4.47 4.53 4.60 4.67 4.74 4.81 4.88 4.96 5.03Net Exports 12.78 13.48 14.92 15.37 14.71 14.02 13.66 13.53 13.55 13.70 13.94Total Use 16.40 17.98 19.39 19.90 19.31 18.69 18.40 18.34 18.44 18.66 18.97Ending Stocks 2.95 6.47 6.12 5.20 4.55 4.29 4.18 4.16 4.19 4.26 4.37

Wheat / 43

Canadian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 25.04 30.50 26.68 26.26 26.44 27.43 28.26 28.91 29.21 29.32 29.26Beginning Stocks 5.68 6.63 10.26 9.43 8.78 8.07 7.38 7.09 7.23 7.48 7.74Total Supply 30.72 37.13 36.94 35.69 35.22 35.50 35.64 36.00 36.44 36.81 37.00Feed Use 4.41 5.20 4.74 4.51 4.37 4.34 4.32 4.29 4.27 4.30 4.31Food Use 3.80 3.98 3.85 3.89 3.92 3.97 4.01 4.06 4.11 4.16 4.21Net Exports 15.88 17.70 18.91 18.52 18.86 19.82 20.22 20.42 20.58 20.61 20.56Total Use 24.08 26.88 27.51 26.91 27.15 28.12 28.55 28.77 28.96 29.07 29.07Ending Stocks 6.63 10.26 9.43 8.78 8.07 7.38 7.09 7.23 7.48 7.74 7.92

Eastern European Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 34.99 26.36 33.97 34.88 35.29 35.70 36.11 36.52 36.93 37.34 37.75Beginning Stocks 6.75 7.07 4.39 4.52 4.56 4.64 4.73 4.82 4.91 5.00 5.10Total Supply 41.74 33.43 38.36 39.40 39.85 40.35 40.84 41.34 41.84 42.35 42.85Domestic Use 31.55 30.26 31.09 31.34 31.87 32.41 32.96 33.53 34.12 34.72 35.34Net Exports 3.12 (1.22) 2.75 3.50 3.34 3.21 3.06 2.90 2.72 2.53 2.32Total Use 34.67 29.04 33.84 34.84 35.21 35.62 36.02 36.43 36.84 37.25 37.65Ending Stocks 7.07 4.39 4.52 4.56 4.64 4.73 4.82 4.91 5.00 5.10 5.20

44 / Wheat

European Union Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 86.44 99.02 95.41 90.27 91.51 92.85 94.20 95.71 97.10 98.83 100.77Beginning Stocks 12.21 10.59 16.20 15.07 10.81 10.09 10.07 10.50 11.00 11.30 11.90Total Supply 98.65 109.61 111.61 105.34 102.32 102.94 104.27 106.21 108.10 110.13 112.67Feed Use 35.99 37.49 38.41 38.49 38.34 38.32 38.36 38.17 38.74 38.69 38.86Food Use 41.21 43.47 42.77 42.88 42.97 43.06 43.12 43.19 43.23 43.26 43.29Net Exports 10.86 12.46 15.36 13.16 10.92 11.49 12.28 13.85 14.83 16.29 18.21Total Use 88.05 93.41 96.54 94.53 92.24 92.87 93.77 95.21 96.80 98.23 100.37Ending Stocks 10.59 16.20 15.07 10.81 10.09 10.07 10.50 11.00 11.30 11.90 12.30

Ukrainian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 16.27 14.50 19.02 18.52 18.61 19.42 19.30 19.87 20.00 20.49 20.61Beginning Stocks 5.87 4.54 1.78 2.90 3.32 3.79 3.86 4.24 4.77 4.86 4.90Imports 0.10 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10Total Supply 22.24 19.24 20.90 21.52 22.02 23.31 23.26 24.21 24.87 25.46 25.61Feed Use 6.30 6.90 6.74 6.79 6.68 6.92 6.85 6.97 6.93 7.06 7.12Food Use 10.40 10.06 10.41 10.42 10.42 10.42 10.42 10.43 10.43 10.44 10.45Exports 1.00 0.50 0.85 1.00 1.14 2.11 1.75 2.04 2.64 3.05 3.13Total Use 17.70 17.46 18.00 18.20 18.24 19.45 19.02 19.44 20.00 20.56 20.69Ending Stocks 4.54 1.78 2.90 3.32 3.79 3.86 4.24 4.77 4.86 4.90 4.92

Wheat / 45

Japanese Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 0.44 0.48 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.42Beginning Stocks 1.17 0.96 0.95 1.02 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.24 1.27Net Imports 5.70 5.90 6.04 6.07 6.09 6.12 6.16 6.19 6.23 6.27 6.32Total Supply 7.31 7.34 7.50 7.59 7.66 7.73 7.79 7.84 7.90 7.95 8.01Domestic Use 6.35 6.39 6.49 6.52 6.55 6.58 6.60 6.63 6.65 6.68 6.70Ending Stocks 0.96 0.95 1.02 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.18 1.21 1.24 1.27 1.31

Russian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 30.10 35.00 36.71 36.51 36.93 37.72 38.07 38.65 39.03 39.47 39.85Beginning Stocks 7.37 2.05 1.95 3.49 3.67 3.70 3.82 3.88 3.98 4.06 4.15Imports 4.10 2.50 2.76 1.50 1.08 0.97 0.92 0.86 0.85 0.86 1.05Total Supply 41.57 39.55 41.42 41.49 41.68 42.39 42.81 43.40 43.86 44.39 45.05Feed Use 17.92 14.90 14.78 14.62 14.71 15.09 15.37 15.79 16.11 16.47 16.94Food, Other 21.50 22.20 22.65 22.71 22.77 22.98 23.05 23.12 23.19 23.27 23.35Exports 0.10 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Total Use 39.52 37.60 37.93 37.83 37.98 38.58 38.92 39.41 39.80 40.24 40.79Ending Stocks 2.05 1.95 3.49 3.67 3.70 3.82 3.88 3.98 4.06 4.15 4.26

46 / Wheat

Other Former Soviet Union Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 13.41 15.81 16.85 16.61 16.89 17.16 17.35 17.66 17.88 18.14 18.39Beginning Stocks 6.14 3.34 3.34 3.77 3.95 4.07 4.14 4.19 4.25 4.30 4.36Imports 4.69 4.40 4.69 5.37 5.53 5.46 5.44 5.38 5.39 5.37 5.38Total Supply 24.24 23.55 24.87 25.75 26.37 26.70 26.93 27.23 27.52 27.82 28.14Feed Use 4.17 3.33 4.05 4.40 4.76 4.87 4.91 5.01 5.08 5.17 5.28Food, Other 13.73 13.88 14.05 14.39 14.54 14.69 14.83 14.98 15.13 15.28 15.43Exports 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00Total Use 20.90 20.21 21.10 21.80 22.30 22.56 22.75 22.99 23.21 23.45 23.71Ending Stocks 3.34 3.34 3.77 3.95 4.07 4.14 4.19 4.25 4.30 4.36 4.43

Other Western European Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 0.94 0.98 1.06 1.08 1.09 1.11 1.12 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.18Beginning Stocks 0.56 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Imports 0.40 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.56 0.62 0.65 0.66 0.66Total Supply 1.90 1.95 2.08 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.18 2.26 2.31 2.33 2.35Domestic Use 1.43 1.45 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.65 1.68 1.76 1.81 1.83 1.85Exports 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Total Use 1.43 1.45 1.58 1.61 1.64 1.65 1.68 1.76 1.81 1.83 1.85Ending Stocks 0.47 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Wheat / 47

Chinese Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 102.22 109.00 104.90 105.73 106.71 107.79 108.93 110.13 111.35 112.60 113.87Beginning Stocks 21.72 22.63 24.43 24.23 24.63 24.80 25.10 25.26 25.52 25.73 25.93Net Imports 11.68 5.80 9.62 11.40 11.09 11.63 11.14 11.34 11.13 10.86 10.80Total Supply 113.90 114.80 114.53 117.14 117.80 119.42 120.07 121.47 122.48 123.46 124.66Feed Use 3.20 3.50 3.58 3.77 3.94 4.12 4.27 4.42 4.56 4.67 4.79Food Use 109.78 109.50 111.15 112.96 113.68 115.00 115.64 116.79 117.71 118.59 119.64Domestic Use 112.98 113.00 114.73 116.73 117.62 119.12 119.91 121.21 122.27 123.26 124.43Ending Stocks 22.63 24.43 24.23 24.63 24.80 25.10 25.26 25.52 25.73 25.93 26.17

High-Income East Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




48 / Wheat

Wheat / 49

Indian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(Million Metric Tons)Production 65.47 62.62 63.69 63.66 64.41 65.32 66.56 67.69 68.71 69.72 70.85Beginning Stocks 10.90 12.50 9.40 9.57 9.57 9.69 9.83 10.03 10.21 10.37 10.53Net Imports -0.57 -1.17 1.39 1.47 1.63 1.79 1.60 1.67 1.94 2.28 2.55Total Supply 76.37 75.12 73.09 73.23 73.98 75.01 76.40 77.72 78.91 80.09 81.38Feed Use 0.30 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35Food Use 63.00 64.21 64.56 64.79 65.58 66.61 67.61 68.83 70.13 71.48 72.86Domestic Use 63.30 64.56 64.91 65.14 65.93 66.96 67.96 69.18 70.48 71.83 73.21Ending Stocks 12.50 9.40 9.57 9.57 9.69 9.83 10.03 10.21 10.37 10.53 10.71

Other Asian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Brazilian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Mexican Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




50 / Wheat

Other Latin American Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Algerian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Wheat / 51

Egyptian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Moroccan Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




52 / Wheat

Tunisian Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Other African/Middle Eastern Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Wheat / 53

54 / Wheat

Rest-of-World Wheat Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Feed and Coarse Grains

World Feed and Coarse Grains

• As with other cereals, producers faced high prices for coarse grains when they made their planting decisions for the1996/97 crop year. These high prices induced a 2.4 percent increase in the world area for coarse grains. Favorableweather conditions led to an 8.6 percent increase in yields over last year’s harvest so that production increased by 11percent over the 1995/96 harvest.

• With the strong increase in production, prices in 1996/97 are expected to fall from previous year highs. However, globalcoarse-grain area for 1997/98 is only expected to decline by a marginal amount. Global demand for coarse grains isexpected to continue to increase at approximately 1.6 percent each year over the baseline period. With yields onlyexpected to grow at 1.2 percent each year and total area expected to be relatively constant, corn prices at the Gulf ofMexico bottom out at $107 per mt in 1997/98 and gradually increase to $127 per mt at the end of the projection period.

• A 600 thousand ha increase in Argentine corn area combined with a 3 percent higher yield increased 1996/97 production,leading to an expected export increase of more than 1.8 mmt compared with 1995/96. Area is expected to decreaseslightly in 1997/98 because of lower prices, and then, after further modest declines through 1999/00, area graduallyincreases until 2005/06. Exports are projected to increase from 7.3 mmt in 1996/97 to 8.7 mmt in 2005/06.

• Australian barley production increased in 1996/97 as area expanded by 90 thousand ha and yields increased 6 percent;however, increased domestic demand leaves 80 tmt less grain for export. Because of competition from wheat and oilseeds,barley area is not projected to increase over the next 10 years, leaving little opportunity for exports to increase.

• A 565 thousand ha increase in Canadian barley area led to a 2.87 mmt increase in barley production in 1996/97. Barleyarea and production are expected to fall in the next few years because of competition from canola and wheat. Over thistime period feed use is expected to increase. Exports increase by an estimated 1.1 mmt in the 1996/97 marketing yearcompared to 1995/96, but are then projected to decline until 2002/03 and then only recover to the 2.2 mmt level by 2005.

• As a result of a 6 percent reduction in yields from 1995/96, Eastern European feed-grain production declined by 2 mmt.Area is not expected to grow much over the projection period, but yields should continue to improve, expanding produc-tion more quickly than recovering domestic utilization. In 1996/97 exports declined markedly from the previous year butthe region remains a net exporter and it is anticipated that Eastern Europe will increase exports, reaching nearly 1.7 mmtby 2005/06.

• With a reduction in the set-aside from 12 to 10 percent in 1996/97, the EU barley area increased by 685 thousand ha. Theincrease in area, combined with a 13.5 percent growth in yields, raised production by 9.1 mmt from 1995/96 levels andnet exports are estimated to be up by 1.1 mmt from last year’s levels. In the latter part of the projection period, competi-tion from wheat will limit barley area, resulting in coarse grain exports below GATT-allowed levels.

• A 10 percent decline in yields in South Africa combined with a 100 thousand ha increase in corn area has led to a 1 mmtdecrease in production in 1996/97 compared to the previous year. Increased domestic use and reduced production haveresulted in a 1.5 mmt decrease in exports from 1995/96. Likewise, increasing domestic use, decreased area, and averageyields over the next 10 years should cause the exportable surplus to decline to 270 tmt.

• Even with a 5 mmt increase in Chinese feed-grain production in 1996/97, growth in domestic demand is outpacing thecapacity to increase Chinese grain production, leaving this country in a net import position. Expected continued feeddemand increases will push import requirements to nearly 18.6 mmt by 2005/06.

• Because of added poultry production in Thailand, corn feed demand is expanding faster than corn production. Thailandbecame a net importer of corn in 1994/95 and is expected to increase imports over the next 10 years.

• Feed-grain production in Russia continued to decline in 1996/97. Although the 1997/98 crop is expected to improve,making more feed grains available for livestock, the animal herd has declined dramatically. Feed use is not projected to

56 / Feed and Coarse Grains

Feed and Coarse Grains / 57

increase rapidly over the projection period and production increases are expected to keep pace with demand growth.Russia is not projected to return to its former position as a major feed-grain importer and it fluctuates between being asmall net exporter and a net importer.

• In 1996/97 Mexican imports of corn decline by 2.9 mmt. Feed demand is projected to grow in 1997/98 as the Mexicaneconomy recovers, and to expand steadily over the remainder of the projection period, with the majority of the increaseddemand coming for corn. Imports increase to 4.7 mmt.

• Asia (excluding China, Japan, and Thailand) is projected to increase feed-grain imports by 7.9 mmt between 1996/97 and2005/06. Land constraints should limit production increases, while high income growth should lead to increased demandfor livestock products. The result is stronger demand for imported feed grains. Countries such as South Korea andTaiwan are expected to remain large importers, but the share of imports accounted for by these two countries declines asMalaysia and Indonesia import more.


Feed-Grain Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 6,100 7,602 7,148 6,805 6,734 7,329 7,767 8,101 8,447 8,718 8,976 Australia 4,205 3,605 2,900 2,919 2,922 2,850 2,825 2,779 2,761 2,708 2,706 Canada 2,985 4,140 4,311 4,262 3,872 3,419 3,282 3,322 3,456 3,501 3,734 Eastern Europe 2,126 1,445 444 991 1,244 1,315 1,420 1,580 1,646 1,627 1,687 European Union 361 2,639 5,486 1,119 2,060 3,309 3,080 3,784 4,803 4,521 4,799 South Africa 2,500 970 1,272 1,176 672 545 482 390 301 239 156 Ukraine 250 150 587 1,387 1,436 1,473 1,699 1,681 1,693 1,692 1,853 United States 57,641 51,761 56,687 64,382 68,390 70,277 73,448 76,156 78,507 81,794 83,119

Total Net Exports 76,168 72,311 78,835 83,040 87,329 90,515 94,002 97,792 101,613 104,800 107,031

Net Importers Israel 1,132 1,200 1,236 1,214 1,219 1,231 1,205 1,179 1,178 1,182 1,185 Japan 19,960 20,585 19,829 19,547 19,406 19,319 19,193 18,996 18,777 18,607 18,490 Russia 650 -100 198 29 -221 -390 -148 -71 145 352 488 Other Former Soviet Union 285 900 436 -558 -1,136 -1,297 -1,291 -1,190 -1,126 -995 -861 Developing 47,728 47,217 55,443 61,240 66,412 70,011 73,311 77,019 80,606 83,587 85,571 Algeria 563 925 1,401 1,455 1,457 1,460 1,462 1,465 1,468 1,470 1,472 Egypt 2,274 2,900 2,857 2,893 2,967 3,040 3,113 3,188 3,266 3,352 3,445 Other Africa 1,029 2,625 1,915 2,164 2,333 2,725 3,018 3,288 3,504 3,703 3,958 Saudi Arabia 3,750 5,050 5,625 5,676 5,677 5,730 5,636 5,540 5,760 5,546 5,549 Other Middle East 3,603 2,880 3,113 3,381 3,476 3,669 3,484 3,357 3,474 3,570 3,684 Brazil 776 1,165 2,419 2,641 2,713 2,718 2,928 2,944 3,019 3,086 3,055 Mexico 8,274 5,655 6,405 6,892 7,301 7,720 8,013 8,305 8,607 8,939 9,292 Other Latin America 5,482 6,676 6,865 6,583 6,878 7,466 7,830 8,310 8,720 9,132 9,584 China 2,750 1,500 3,883 8,229 11,354 12,523 14,091 16,251 17,582 18,759 18,608 Indonesia 1,220 790 2,061 2,229 2,420 2,598 2,780 2,971 3,181 3,409 3,656 Malaysia 2,300 2,600 2,486 2,524 2,569 2,627 2,692 2,770 2,859 2,957 3,069 South Korea 8,913 6,850 8,290 8,323 8,493 8,614 8,729 8,849 8,978 9,099 9,251 Taiwan 5,890 6,300 6,626 6,761 6,880 7,001 7,129 7,253 7,380 7,500 7,631 Thailand 162 300 361 427 514 624 746 889 1,053 1,235 1,442 Vietnam 0 0 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 -50 Other Asia 742 1,000 1,186 1,113 1,429 1,547 1,711 1,688 1,805 1,879 1,925 Rest of World 2,213 1,079 1,192 1,068 1,149 1,142 1,231 1,358 1,533 1,566 1,658 Residual 4,200 1,430 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Total Net Imports 76,168 72,311 78,835 83,040 87,329 90,515 94,002 97,792 101,613 104,800 107,031

Feed-Grain Prices (Dollars per Metric Ton) Corn (FOB Gulf) 169.28 122.61 107.37 106.68 109.30 110.47 114.91 117.51 119.77 124.12 126.64 Sorghum (FOB Gulf) 158.51 118.54 104.93 103.70 106.34 108.61 112.19 114.09 115.23 118.20 120.17 Barley (Portland) 158.67 143.77 133.21 128.18 130.94 134.68 137.19 136.48 137.42 140.11 141.84


World Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Hectares)Area Harvested 309,976 317,340 317,421 317,012 317,930 318,225 318,461 318,811 319,542 319,922 320,577

(Metric Tons per Hectares)Yield 2.56 2.78 2.79 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.93 2.97 3.01 3.05 3.08

(1,000 Metric Tons)Beginning Stocks 133,779 90,721 114,286 125,179 127,602 129,204 129,368 128,734 128,950 130,399 130,590Production 794,551 883,596 884,554 891,114 906,581 920,902 933,692 947,655 962,351 974,842 988,961Consumption 837,609 860,031 873,661 888,692 904,979 920,738 934,326 947,439 960,903 974,651 988,528Trade /a 76,168 72,311 78,835 83,040 87,329 90,515 94,002 97,792 101,613 104,800 107,031Ending Stocks 90,721 114,286 125,179 127,602 129,204 129,368 128,734 128,950 130,399 130,590 131,022



U.S. Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization, Corn and Sorghum

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 26,303 29,602 30,090 29,851 30,229 30,452 30,412 30,795 31,015 31,192 31,522

(Metric Tons per Hectare) Yield Actual 7.12 7.97 8.01 8.12 8.21 8.31 8.41 8.49 8.58 8.68 8.76

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 187,306 236,066 240,984 242,429 248,244 252,937 255,690 261,575 266,256 270,613 276,146 Beginning Stocks 39,575 10,821 24,518 34,420 36,235 36,288 36,310 34,708 34,143 33,667 32,548 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 226,882 246,887 265,502 276,849 284,479 289,224 292,000 296,283 300,400 304,280 308,694 Feed, Residual 119,666 131,886 133,477 134,400 137,157 139,204 139,785 141,191 142,800 143,992 146,766 Food 17,392 17,408 17,779 17,986 18,094 18,237 18,350 18,506 18,689 18,849 19,044 HFCS 12,249 13,117 13,859 14,135 14,460 14,843 15,111 15,452 15,788 16,059 16,395 Seed 528 508 513 520 524 524 530 534 538 544 545 Fuel Alcohol 10,051 11,441 12,804 13,402 13,934 14,478 14,960 15,457 15,946 16,399 16,866 Exports 56,594 48,262 52,905 60,427 64,276 65,883 68,809 71,254 73,225 76,144 77,132 Total Use 216,480 222,622 231,337 240,868 248,445 253,169 257,546 262,394 266,986 271,986 276,747 Ending Stocks 10,821 24,518 34,420 36,235 36,288 36,310 34,708 34,143 33,667 32,548 32,201

Sorghum (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 3,350 4,816 3,902 3,967 3,968 3,925 3,931 3,954 3,977 3,994 4,040

(Metric Tons per Hectare) Yield Actual 3.49 4.23 4.16 4.20 4.24 4.27 4.31 4.34 4.37 4.40 4.42

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 11,694 20,397 16,252 16,668 16,814 16,775 16,932 17,150 17,367 17,559 17,868 Beginning Stocks 1,829 457 1,715 1,766 1,894 1,937 1,938 1,959 2,036 2,119 2,177 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 13,523 20,854 17,967 18,434 18,708 18,713 18,870 19,109 19,403 19,678 20,045 Feed, Residual 7,798 13,244 10,264 10,609 10,663 10,395 10,293 10,138 9,998 9,887 9,825 Food 152 153 153 153 152 151 150 150 151 151 152 Seed 25 26 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 Exports 5,080 5,716 5,755 5,748 5,928 6,201 6,438 6,756 7,106 7,433 7,760 Total Use 13,056 19,139 16,201 16,539 16,771 16,775 16,910 17,073 17,284 17,500 17,768 Ending Stocks 457 1,715 1,766 1,894 1,937 1,938 1,959 2,036 2,119 2,177 2,278


U.S. Coarse-Grain Supply and Utilization, Barley and Oats

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Barley (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 2,541 2,747 2,798 2,890 2,826 2,746 2,781 2,761 2,737 2,753 2,792


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 7,829 8,640 8,972 9,328 9,196 9,019 9,220 9,246 9,246 9,381 9,597 Beginning Stocks 2,460 2,177 2,174 2,271 2,326 2,341 2,292 2,323 2,370 2,357 2,324 Imports 893 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 871 Total Supply 11,182 11,689 12,018 12,470 12,393 12,231 12,382 12,440 12,487 12,609 12,792 Feed, Residual 4,028 5,082 5,138 5,292 5,191 5,048 5,145 5,185 5,185 5,260 5,386 Food, Seed, Industrial 3,614 3,625 3,664 3,676 3,684 3,693 3,700 3,715 3,735 3,760 3,786 Exports 1,350 807 945 1,176 1,177 1,199 1,214 1,170 1,210 1,264 1,285 Total Use 8,992 9,514 9,747 10,144 10,051 9,940 10,059 10,070 10,130 10,284 10,456 Ending Stocks 2,177 2,174 2,271 2,326 2,341 2,292 2,323 2,370 2,357 2,324 2,336

Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,199 1,087 1,157 1,062 975 920 886 848 826 795 755


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,352 2,253 2,410 2,224 2,055 1,949 1,886 1,813 1,774 1,716 1,636 Beginning Stocks 1,460 958 1,032 1,111 979 809 728 681 653 644 634 Imports 1,168 1,223 1,264 1,314 1,336 1,351 1,359 1,370 1,379 1,391 1,403 Total Supply 4,981 4,434 4,706 4,650 4,369 4,109 3,973 3,864 3,807 3,751 3,673 Feed, Residual 2,206 1,621 1,834 1,908 1,795 1,612 1,522 1,435 1,384 1,336 1,283 Food, Seed, Industrial 1,785 1,737 1,746 1,748 1,751 1,754 1,757 1,761 1,764 1,766 1,769 Exports 29 44 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 Total Use 4,021 3,402 3,594 3,671 3,560 3,380 3,293 3,211 3,163 3,116 3,067 Ending Stocks 958 1,032 1,111 979 809 728 681 653 644 634 606



Argentine Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 10,660 13,500 12,914 12,539 12,538 13,381 13,927 14,397 14,787 15,131 15,485 Beginning Stocks 500 560 1,110 752 611 619 632 632 635 638 635 Total Supply 11,160 14,060 14,024 13,290 13,149 14,000 14,560 15,028 15,422 15,770 16,120 Domestic Use 5,200 5,700 6,155 6,128 6,181 6,392 6,528 6,625 6,694 6,757 6,833 Net Exports 5,400 7,250 7,117 6,552 6,349 6,975 7,399 7,768 8,089 8,377 8,650 Total Use 10,600 12,950 13,272 12,680 12,530 13,368 13,928 14,393 14,784 15,135 15,483 Ending Stocks 560 1,110 752 611 619 632 632 635 638 635 637

Sorghum (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 632 512 342 412 450 442 447 435 435 426 418


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,100 2,000 1,351 1,651 1,826 1,817 1,858 1,829 1,852 1,833 1,820 Beginning Stocks 250 200 250 228 228 229 229 227 226 226 225 Total Supply 2,350 2,200 1,601 1,879 2,054 2,047 2,087 2,056 2,078 2,059 2,045 Domestic Use 1,550 1,698 1,443 1,497 1,540 1,565 1,592 1,596 1,595 1,593 1,594 Net Exports 600 252 -69 154 284 253 267 233 257 241 226 Total Use 2,150 1,950 1,374 1,651 1,825 1,818 1,860 1,829 1,852 1,835 1,821 Ending Stocks 200 250 228 228 229 229 227 226 226 225 224

Australian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,498 6,000 5,282 5,352 5,413 5,394 5,439 5,454 5,480 5,518 5,576 Beginning Stocks 211 229 429 434 441 440 437 435 438 439 438 Total Supply 5,709 6,229 5,711 5,786 5,854 5,835 5,876 5,889 5,918 5,957 6,014 Domestic Use 1,900 2,500 2,656 2,751 2,873 2,935 3,028 3,114 3,196 3,270 3,352 Net Exports 3,380 3,300 2,621 2,594 2,541 2,463 2,414 2,337 2,283 2,249 2,225 Total Use 5,280 5,800 5,277 5,345 5,414 5,398 5,441 5,451 5,479 5,519 5,577 Ending Stocks 229 429 434 441 440 437 435 438 439 438 437



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,555 901 879 921 965 989 1,016 1,040 1,071 1,102 1,137 Beginning Stocks 100 100 100 80 75 75 76 77 78 79 80 Total Supply 1,655 1,001 979 1,001 1,041 1,065 1,092 1,117 1,149 1,181 1,217 Domestic Use 1,005 801 825 806 790 806 809 802 798 847 860 Net Exports 550 100 74 120 175 182 206 236 273 254 276 Total Use 1,555 901 899 925 965 989 1,015 1,039 1,070 1,101 1,136 Ending Stocks 100 100 80 75 75 76 77 78 79 80 82



Canadian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 13,035 15,900 13,910 13,459 13,255 13,223 13,212 13,359 13,463 13,541 13,622 Beginning Stocks 1,820 1,807 3,217 3,105 2,816 2,730 2,704 2,698 2,726 2,762 2,788 Total Supply 14,855 17,707 17,127 16,564 16,072 15,954 15,915 16,057 16,189 16,303 16,410 Domestic Use 10,658 11,000 10,725 10,638 10,671 11,106 11,254 11,396 11,415 11,517 11,390 Net Exports 2,390 3,490 3,297 3,110 2,670 2,144 1,963 1,934 2,012 1,998 2,208 Total Use 13,048 14,490 14,021 13,748 13,341 13,250 13,217 13,330 13,427 13,515 13,598 Ending Stocks 1,807 3,217 3,105 2,816 2,730 2,704 2,698 2,726 2,762 2,788 2,812



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 7,271 7,200 7,335 7,465 7,547 7,664 7,764 7,859 7,954 8,050 8,132 Beginning Stocks 652 698 698 759 820 872 925 975 1,023 1,070 1,115 Total Supply 7,923 7,898 8,033 8,225 8,367 8,536 8,690 8,834 8,977 9,120 9,247 Domestic Use 7,630 7,550 7,260 7,252 7,293 7,336 7,396 7,423 7,464 7,502 7,563 Net Exports -405 -350 14 152 202 275 319 388 443 503 527 Total Use 7,225 7,200 7,274 7,404 7,495 7,611 7,714 7,811 7,908 8,005 8,089 Ending Stocks 698 698 759 820 872 925 975 1,023 1,070 1,115 1,157

Chinese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn, Barley, Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 24,507 25,250 24,867 24,799 24,813 25,350 25,524 25,603 25,857 25,957 26,016


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 116,640 121,650 119,983 121,513 123,446 128,017 130,812 133,137 136,395 138,867 141,135 Beginning Stocks 27,788 31,088 31,098 30,365 30,271 30,257 30,771 31,030 31,195 31,547 31,741 Net Imports 2,750 1,500 3,883 8,229 11,354 12,523 14,091 16,251 17,582 18,759 18,608 Total Supply 147,178 154,238 154,964 160,107 165,071 170,797 175,675 180,418 185,172 189,173 191,485 Feed Use 84,310 91,310 94,851 99,952 104,808 109,914 114,438 118,931 123,255 126,992 130,782 Food Use 31,780 31,830 29,748 29,884 30,006 30,112 30,206 30,291 30,370 30,439 30,508 Total Use 116,090 123,140 124,599 129,836 134,814 140,026 144,644 149,223 153,625 157,432 161,290 Ending Stocks 31,088 31,098 30,365 30,271 30,257 30,771 31,030 31,195 31,547 31,741 30,195

Eastern European Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 39,152 37,135 39,367 40,896 42,032 42,952 43,754 44,490 45,190 45,871 46,540 Beginning Stocks 3,018 3,419 3,389 3,478 3,539 3,585 3,622 3,654 3,683 3,711 3,738 Total Supply 42,170 40,554 42,756 44,374 45,572 46,537 47,375 48,143 48,873 49,582 50,278 Domestic Use 36,625 35,720 38,833 39,844 40,743 41,601 42,302 42,880 43,516 44,217 44,826 Net Exports 2,126 1,445 444 991 1,244 1,315 1,420 1,580 1,646 1,627 1,687 Total Use 38,751 37,165 39,277 40,835 41,987 42,916 43,721 44,460 45,162 45,843 46,513 Ending Stocks 3,419 3,389 3,478 3,539 3,585 3,622 3,654 3,683 3,711 3,738 3,765


European Union Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 43,735 52,810 49,426 47,199 47,695 48,216 48,737 49,207 49,701 50,101 50,445 Beginning Stocks 6,404 4,795 8,291 6,649 6,535 6,540 6,568 6,616 6,631 6,660 6,714 Total Supply 50,139 57,605 57,717 53,848 54,230 54,756 55,305 55,823 56,331 56,761 57,159 Feed Use 31,766 34,310 33,322 32,553 32,555 32,716 33,008 33,084 33,256 33,598 33,536 Food, Other Use 10,681 10,954 11,004 11,016 11,045 11,072 11,097 11,121 11,143 11,165 11,185 Net Exports 2,897 4,050 6,842 3,843 4,190 4,400 4,585 4,988 5,272 5,283 5,730 Total Use 45,344 49,314 51,168 47,412 47,790 48,187 48,689 49,192 49,672 50,046 50,451 Ending Stocks 4,795 8,291 6,649 6,535 6,540 6,568 6,616 6,631 6,660 6,714 6,708



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 28,952 34,030 32,202 31,445 31,793 32,112 32,428 32,700 32,993 33,202 33,353 Beginning Stocks 2,934 2,295 3,885 3,903 4,425 4,753 4,245 4,264 4,263 4,214 4,415 Net Imports 2,625 1,745 1,756 3,119 2,485 1,341 1,705 1,404 670 963 1,065 Total Supply 34,511 38,070 37,843 38,467 38,703 38,206 38,378 38,368 37,926 38,379 38,833 Feed Use 23,845 25,445 25,147 25,245 25,182 25,157 25,252 25,184 24,879 25,078 24,754 Food Use 8,371 8,740 8,793 8,796 8,769 8,804 8,861 8,921 8,833 8,886 8,868 Total Use 32,216 34,185 33,940 34,042 33,950 33,961 34,114 34,105 33,712 33,963 33,622 Ending Stocks 2,295 3,885 3,903 4,425 4,753 4,245 4,264 4,263 4,214 4,415 5,211

Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,832 1,916 2,039 1,900 1,880 1,861 1,841 1,821 1,819 1,815 1,811


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,837 6,647 6,768 6,347 6,317 6,288 6,260 6,229 6,258 6,282 6,302 Beginning Stocks 809 864 999 1,123 804 525 350 290 347 515 797 Total Supply 6,646 7,511 7,767 7,470 7,121 6,813 6,610 6,518 6,605 6,797 7,100 Feed Use 4,483 4,952 5,029 5,064 5,043 5,006 4,918 4,797 4,702 4,611 4,539 Food and Other Use 1,210 1,226 1,216 1,207 1,199 1,207 1,203 1,174 1,188 1,189 1,204 Net Exports 89 334 400 395 355 250 200 200 200 200 135 Total Use 5,782 6,512 6,644 6,666 6,596 6,463 6,320 6,171 6,089 5,999 5,877 Ending Stocks 864 999 1,123 804 525 350 290 347 515 797 1,222



South African Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 10,500 9,500 9,215 9,261 9,307 9,362 9,417 9,486 9,555 9,621 9,695 Beginning Stocks 900 1,200 1,850 1,512 1,157 1,191 1,231 1,256 1,289 1,322 1,348 Total Supply 11,400 10,700 11,065 10,773 10,464 10,554 10,648 10,742 10,844 10,944 11,043 Domestic Use 7,400 7,880 8,280 8,440 8,583 8,742 8,860 8,998 9,138 9,259 9,395 Net Exports 2,500 970 1,273 1,175 690 581 533 455 383 337 269 Total Use 9,900 8,850 9,553 9,615 9,273 9,322 9,393 9,453 9,521 9,596 9,664 Ending Stocks 1,200 1,850 1,512 1,157 1,191 1,231 1,256 1,289 1,322 1,348 1,379



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 445 375 444 461 453 446 444 443 440 436 435 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 445 375 444 461 453 446 444 443 440 436 435 Domestic Use 445 375 445 460 471 483 495 508 522 534 548 Net Exports 0 0 -1 1 -18 -36 -51 -65 -82 -99 -113 Total Use 445 375 444 461 453 446 444 443 440 436 435 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ukrainian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,161 700 1,193 1,134 1,141 1,152 1,151 1,163 1,170 1,173 1,181


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 3,392 1,500 2,984 2,886 2,955 3,036 3,084 3,170 3,240 3,301 3,379 Beginning Stocks 262 825 325 600 635 670 705 740 775 810 845 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,654 2,325 3,309 3,486 3,590 3,706 3,789 3,910 4,015 4,111 4,224 Feed Use 1,950 1,100 1,430 1,500 1,543 1,540 1,592 1,619 1,656 1,694 1,723 Food, Seed, Other 829 850 1,124 1,087 1,113 1,144 1,162 1,194 1,221 1,244 1,273 Exports 50 50 155 263 263 317 295 322 328 328 348 Total Use 2,829 2,000 2,709 2,851 2,920 3,001 3,049 3,135 3,205 3,266 3,344 Ending Stocks 825 325 600 635 670 705 740 775 810 845 880



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 9,633 6,500 8,155 8,631 8,960 9,187 9,462 9,593 9,714 9,852 10,038 Beginning Stocks 2,091 1,391 891 1,200 1,300 1,600 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,550 2,700 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 11,724 7,891 9,046 9,831 10,260 10,787 11,462 11,793 12,114 12,402 12,738 Feed Use 8,790 5,560 5,938 5,910 5,945 6,055 6,215 6,374 6,522 6,674 6,792 Food, Seed, Other 1,343 1,340 1,456 1,489 1,512 1,528 1,547 1,557 1,565 1,575 1,588 Exports 200 100 453 1,132 1,203 1,203 1,500 1,463 1,477 1,453 1,608 Total Use 10,333 7,000 7,846 8,531 8,660 8,787 9,262 9,393 9,564 9,702 9,988 Ending Stocks 1,391 891 1,200 1,300 1,600 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,550 2,700 2,750

Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 560 530 584 549 525 517 510 508 512 511 506


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,116 800 1,382 1,318 1,283 1,292 1,310 1,339 1,382 1,415 1,433 Beginning Stocks 362 278 178 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Imports 0 0 21 8 30 48 96 104 112 89 104 Total Supply 1,478 1,078 1,580 1,626 1,613 1,640 1,706 1,743 1,795 1,805 1,837 Feed Use 1,100 800 1,174 1,220 1,207 1,234 1,300 1,337 1,388 1,398 1,431 Food, Seed, Other 100 100 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 106 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,200 900 1,280 1,326 1,313 1,340 1,406 1,443 1,495 1,505 1,537 Ending Stocks 278 178 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300



Ukrainian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization (continued)

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rye (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 605 620 487 508 516 493 490 481 482 482 484


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,208 900 1,018 1,074 1,107 1,075 1,086 1,084 1,106 1,124 1,146 Beginning Stocks 281 239 239 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Imports 25 125 208 97 119 206 204 209 192 179 160 Total Supply 1,514 1,264 1,465 1,471 1,525 1,581 1,590 1,594 1,598 1,603 1,606 Feed Use 50 714 75 79 125 171 177 180 184 188 191 Food, Seed, Other 1,200 850 1,090 1,092 1,100 1,110 1,113 1,114 1,114 1,114 1,115 Exports 25 -539 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,275 1,025 1,165 1,171 1,225 1,281 1,290 1,294 1,298 1,303 1,306 Ending Stocks 239 239 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300

Israeli Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 73 50 25 37 41 43 44 44 44 43 43 Net Imports 650 450 585 579 584 594 596 598 598 595 595 Total Supply 723 500 610 616 626 637 640 642 641 638 638 Feed Use 575 370 468 469 477 488 491 493 493 490 491 Food, Other Use 98 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 Total Use 673 475 573 574 582 593 596 598 598 595 596 Ending Stocks 50 25 37 41 43 44 44 44 43 43 42

Barley (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 9 10 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 Beginning Stocks 50 25 20 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Net Imports 125 450 335 312 314 325 301 276 275 279 281 Total Supply 184 485 362 369 371 382 359 334 333 337 339 Feed Use 100 355 302 309 311 322 299 274 273 277 279 Food, Other Use 59 110 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Total Use 159 465 312 319 321 332 309 284 283 287 289 Ending Stocks 25 20 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Net Imports 357 300 316 323 321 312 308 306 306 308 309 Total Supply 370 313 329 336 334 325 321 319 319 321 322 Total Use 357 300 316 323 321 312 308 306 306 308 309 Ending Stocks 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13


Japanese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Beginning Stocks 1,189 1,091 943 1,220 1,296 1,317 1,323 1,323 1,323 1,324 1,323 Net Imports 15,950 15,750 15,991 15,756 15,634 15,567 15,443 15,282 15,099 14,936 14,814 Total Supply 17,141 16,843 16,936 16,978 16,932 16,885 16,769 16,607 16,425 16,262 16,139 Domestic Use 16,050 15,900 15,717 15,682 15,615 15,562 15,445 15,284 15,101 14,939 14,816 Ending Stocks 1,091 943 1,220 1,296 1,317 1,323 1,323 1,323 1,324 1,323 1,323



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 218 200 185 175 163 151 138 125 110 96 81 Beginning Stocks 912 795 755 686 646 627 618 615 612 609 608 Net Imports 1,600 1,750 1,546 1,532 1,535 1,542 1,549 1,544 1,536 1,539 1,547 Total Supply 2,730 2,745 2,486 2,393 2,345 2,320 2,305 2,283 2,258 2,244 2,235 Domestic Use 1,935 1,990 1,801 1,746 1,718 1,702 1,690 1,671 1,649 1,636 1,626 Ending Stocks 795 755 686 646 627 618 615 612 609 608 609

Sorghum Beginning Stocks 71 171 271 187 183 181 178 177 174 171 170 Net Imports 2,325 3,000 2,207 2,174 2,151 2,126 2,116 2,086 2,057 2,048 2,044 Total Supply 2,396 3,171 2,478 2,360 2,335 2,306 2,294 2,263 2,231 2,218 2,214 Domestic Use 2,225 2,900 2,292 2,177 2,154 2,128 2,117 2,089 2,060 2,049 2,045 Ending Stocks 171 271 187 183 181 178 177 174 171 170 169


Russian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,700 1,000 1,089 1,013 1,033 1,005 1,024 1,028 1,053 1,073 1,105 Beginning Stocks 155 155 155 250 400 500 500 500 500 500 500 Imports 100 100 585 689 689 651 688 712 729 749 767 Total Supply 1,955 1,255 1,829 1,952 2,122 2,156 2,212 2,240 2,282 2,322 2,372 Feed Use 965 265 669 706 760 817 857 882 903 926 950 Food, Seed, Other 835 835 910 846 862 839 855 858 879 896 922 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,800 1,100 1,579 1,552 1,622 1,656 1,712 1,740 1,782 1,822 1,872 Ending Stocks 155 155 250 400 500 500 500 500 500 500 500



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 15,800 15,500 19,075 19,924 20,445 20,683 20,896 21,203 21,462 21,654 21,938 Beginning Stocks 2,427 525 325 1,000 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1,000 1,000 Imports 800 300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 19,027 16,325 19,400 20,924 21,645 21,983 22,096 22,303 22,462 22,654 22,938 Feed Use 13,545 11,000 12,500 13,536 13,893 14,184 14,586 14,929 15,269 15,631 16,012 Food, Seed, Other 4,657 4,500 5,513 5,528 5,542 5,558 5,574 5,591 5,609 5,627 5,646 Exports 300 500 387 660 910 1,041 836 783 584 396 279 Total Use 18,502 16,000 18,400 19,724 20,345 20,783 20,996 21,303 21,462 21,654 21,938 Ending Stocks 525 325 1,000 1,200 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000

Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 7,928 7,600 8,451 8,637 8,545 8,448 8,440 8,408 8,413 8,406 8,386


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 8,600 9,500 10,817 11,142 11,109 11,068 11,141 11,182 11,273 11,348 11,405 Beginning Stocks 1,618 418 518 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Imports 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 10,268 9,918 11,335 12,142 12,109 12,068 12,141 12,182 12,273 12,348 12,405 Feed Use 8,200 7,550 8,100 8,901 8,862 8,814 8,881 8,916 8,999 9,067 9,116 Food, Seed, Other 1,650 1,850 2,235 2,241 2,247 2,253 2,260 2,267 2,274 2,281 2,289 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 9,850 9,400 10,335 11,142 11,109 11,068 11,141 11,182 11,273 11,348 11,405 Ending Stocks 418 518 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000



Russian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization (continued)

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rye (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 3,233 4,400 4,676 4,841 4,885 4,846 4,848 4,837 4,849 4,856 4,867


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,100 5,500 5,985 6,342 6,545 6,639 6,787 6,917 7,079 7,235 7,398 Beginning Stocks 2,039 439 239 450 650 750 1,000 1,250 1,350 1,450 1,550 Imports 100 100 100 520 254 335 633 415 312 216 164 Total Supply 6,239 6,039 6,324 7,312 7,449 7,725 8,419 8,582 8,741 8,901 9,113 Feed Use 550 525 392 1,323 1,366 1,398 1,838 1,890 1,939 1,986 2,034 Food, Seed, Other 5,150 5,075 5,337 5,339 5,333 5,327 5,331 5,342 5,352 5,364 5,378 Exports 100 200 146 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 5,800 5,800 5,874 6,662 6,699 6,725 7,169 7,232 7,291 7,351 7,413 Ending Stocks 439 239 450 650 750 1,000 1,250 1,350 1,450 1,550 1,700

Other Former Soviet Union Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,898 1,585 1,586 1,681 1,751 1,784 1,813 1,815 1,848 1,859 1,871 Beginning Stocks 672 722 650 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 Imports 390 375 525 510 464 466 490 548 576 613 650 Total Supply 2,960 2,682 2,761 2,941 2,965 3,000 3,053 3,112 3,174 3,222 3,271 Feed Use 1,694 1,620 1,630 1,798 1,817 1,849 1,905 1,960 2,022 2,070 2,119 Food, Seed, Other 339 362 381 393 398 401 398 402 402 401 402 Exports 205 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 2,238 2,032 2,011 2,191 2,215 2,250 2,303 2,362 2,424 2,472 2,521 Ending Stocks 722 650 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750 750



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 7,635 7,975 10,066 11,645 12,421 12,684 12,840 12,878 12,920 12,956 13,013 Beginning Stocks 2,079 1,008 963 1,427 1,566 1,800 1,940 2,076 2,110 2,128 2,152 Imports 600 575 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Total Supply 10,314 9,558 11,529 13,572 14,487 14,984 15,280 15,453 15,530 15,584 15,665 Feed Use 6,751 6,621 7,500 8,200 8,325 8,495 8,616 8,775 8,846 8,948 9,073 Food, Seed, Other 2,055 1,974 2,013 2,239 2,262 2,285 2,308 2,331 2,354 2,377 2,401 Exports 500 0 589 1,568 2,100 2,263 2,281 2,238 2,202 2,107 2,011 Total Use 9,306 8,595 10,102 12,006 12,687 13,043 13,205 13,343 13,402 13,432 13,485 Ending Stocks 1,008 963 1,427 1,566 1,800 1,940 2,076 2,110 2,128 2,152 2,180

Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 983 915 1,003 1,017 1,002 987 983 979 980 979 976


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,200 1,333 1,706 1,742 1,729 1,716 1,720 1,727 1,741 1,751 1,758 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,200 1,333 1,706 1,742 1,729 1,716 1,720 1,727 1,741 1,751 1,758 Feed Use 924 1,065 1,353 1,386 1,370 1,353 1,353 1,356 1,366 1,373 1,376 Food, Seed, Other 276 268 352 356 360 364 367 371 374 378 382 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,200 1,333 1,706 1,742 1,729 1,716 1,720 1,727 1,741 1,751 1,758 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Other Former Soviet Union Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization (continued)

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rye (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,457 1,485 1,711 1,794 1,814 1,817 1,820 1,815 1,818 1,817 1,817


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,573 2,893 3,369 3,554 3,620 3,664 3,715 3,750 3,801 3,844 3,889 Beginning Stocks 454 363 373 524 546 554 562 572 582 590 599 Imports 345 230 366 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Total Supply 3,372 3,486 4,108 4,378 4,466 4,518 4,577 4,622 4,682 4,734 4,788 Feed Use 1,497 1,494 1,874 1,906 1,939 1,978 2,023 2,074 2,114 2,154 2,196 Food, Seed, Other 1,467 1,494 1,711 1,832 1,851 1,870 1,888 1,907 1,926 1,945 1,965 Exports 45 125 0 94 123 108 94 59 52 36 20 Total Use 3,009 3,113 3,584 3,831 3,912 3,955 4,006 4,040 4,092 4,135 4,180 Ending Stocks 363 373 524 546 554 562 572 582 590 599 608

Algerian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Barley (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 800 1,000 1,080 1,099 1,102 1,102 1,101 1,101 1,101 1,101 1,101


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 540 1,300 713 736 750 760 771 782 793 804 815 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Imports 50 25 377 350 342 338 334 330 325 321 316 Total Supply 590 1,325 1,089 1,086 1,092 1,099 1,105 1,111 1,118 1,124 1,131 Domestic Use 590 1,325 1,089 1,086 1,092 1,099 1,105 1,111 1,118 1,124 1,131 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Beginning Stocks 100 50 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Net Imports 488 900 1,024 1,105 1,115 1,122 1,129 1,135 1,142 1,149 1,156 Total Supply 590 952 1,076 1,162 1,177 1,189 1,201 1,212 1,224 1,236 1,248 Domestic Use 540 902 1,021 1,102 1,112 1,119 1,126 1,132 1,139 1,146 1,153 Ending Stocks 50 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95



Egyptian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,738 5,800 5,904 5,988 6,006 6,038 6,081 6,135 6,197 6,263 6,335 Beginning Stocks 500 288 238 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Net Imports 2,224 2,850 2,807 2,843 2,917 2,990 3,063 3,138 3,216 3,302 3,395 Total Supply 8,462 8,938 8,949 9,030 9,123 9,228 9,344 9,473 9,613 9,765 9,930 Domestic Use 8,174 8,700 8,749 8,830 8,923 9,028 9,144 9,273 9,413 9,565 9,730 Ending Stocks 288 238 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Nigerian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 6,800 6,800 4,116 3,885 3,846 3,845 3,850 3,857 3,864 3,871 3,879 Beginning Stocks 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Net Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 7,000 7,000 4,316 4,085 4,046 4,045 4,050 4,057 4,064 4,071 4,079 Domestic Use 6,800 6,800 4,116 3,885 3,846 3,845 3,850 3,857 3,864 3,871 3,879 Ending Stocks 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Other African Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 28,173 25,809 27,201 27,264 27,271 27,356 27,444 27,626 27,859 28,143 28,481 Beginning Stocks 1,275 1,610 1,100 1,353 1,516 1,541 1,561 1,573 1,608 1,660 1,721 Imports 1,435 2,100 1,316 1,492 1,624 1,981 2,231 2,439 2,599 2,748 2,945 Total Supply 30,883 29,519 29,617 30,110 30,411 30,878 31,236 31,638 32,066 32,551 33,146 Feed Use 2,150 2,056 2,219 2,193 2,136 2,160 2,145 2,139 2,143 2,134 2,141 Food Use 26,398 26,263 25,944 26,301 26,634 27,057 27,419 27,791 28,163 28,596 29,105 Exports 725 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Use 29,273 28,419 28,263 28,593 28,870 29,317 29,664 30,030 30,406 30,830 31,346 Ending Stocks 1,610 1,100 1,353 1,516 1,541 1,561 1,573 1,608 1,660 1,721 1,800



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,356 6,305 4,575 4,426 4,368 4,385 4,423 4,474 4,511 4,550 4,601 Beginning Stocks 1,395 120 1,520 1,357 1,271 1,122 1,080 1,077 1,095 1,111 1,123 Imports 319 625 699 771 809 844 888 949 1,005 1,055 1,113 Total Supply 4,070 7,050 6,795 6,554 6,448 6,351 6,390 6,499 6,611 6,716 6,837 Feed Use 1,198 2,515 2,289 2,072 2,052 1,999 1,877 1,813 1,824 1,915 2,025 Food Use 2,752 3,015 3,148 3,211 3,274 3,272 3,437 3,592 3,675 3,678 3,671 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 3,950 5,530 5,438 5,283 5,326 5,271 5,314 5,404 5,500 5,593 5,696 Ending Stocks 120 1,520 1,357 1,271 1,122 1,080 1,077 1,095 1,111 1,123 1,141

Saudi Arabian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,200 450 968 1,008 1,048 1,089 1,131 1,173 1,215 1,258 1,302 Beginning Stocks 2,174 1,124 774 1,136 1,536 1,647 1,845 1,945 2,041 2,149 2,241 Net Imports 2,750 4,000 4,525 4,526 4,477 4,480 4,336 4,190 4,360 4,096 4,049 Total Supply 6,124 5,574 6,266 6,669 7,061 7,216 7,311 7,308 7,616 7,502 7,592 Domestic Use 5,000 4,800 5,130 5,133 5,415 5,371 5,366 5,267 5,468 5,261 5,251 Ending Stocks 1,124 774 1,136 1,536 1,647 1,845 1,945 2,041 2,149 2,241 2,341


Other Middle Eastern Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,443 2,898 2,399 2,418 2,519 2,588 2,676 2,671 2,666 2,738 2,819 Beginning Stocks 436 401 466 362 297 258 235 223 215 210 208 Imports 3,101 2,650 2,270 2,425 2,471 2,578 2,450 2,361 2,422 2,468 2,527 Total Supply 5,980 5,949 5,134 5,205 5,286 5,424 5,362 5,254 5,303 5,415 5,554 Feed Use 4,373 4,272 3,746 3,678 3,756 3,918 3,773 3,688 3,796 3,876 3,985 Food Use 1,201 1,206 1,026 1,230 1,272 1,270 1,366 1,352 1,298 1,332 1,360 Domestic Use 5,574 5,478 4,772 4,908 5,028 5,189 5,139 5,040 5,094 5,208 5,345 Exports 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 5,579 5,483 4,772 4,908 5,028 5,189 5,139 5,040 5,094 5,208 5,345 Ending Stocks 401 466 362 297 258 235 223 215 210 208 209



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 13,307 14,271 13,932 14,129 14,232 14,372 14,490 14,762 15,078 15,305 15,507 Beginning Stocks 1,855 1,862 2,012 2,477 2,556 2,582 2,611 2,636 2,690 2,755 2,804 Imports 1,507 1,510 1,543 1,656 1,705 1,791 1,733 1,696 1,752 1,802 1,857 Total Supply 16,669 17,643 17,487 18,262 18,493 18,745 18,835 19,094 19,520 19,863 20,168 Feed Use 10,721 11,291 10,567 11,456 11,651 12,202 11,196 10,371 10,633 10,881 11,129 Food Use 3,086 3,065 3,743 3,550 3,559 3,231 4,303 5,333 5,432 5,477 5,493 Domestic Use 13,807 14,356 14,310 15,006 15,211 15,434 15,498 15,704 16,065 16,359 16,622 Exports 1,000 1,275 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 700 Total Use 14,807 15,631 15,010 15,706 15,911 16,134 16,198 16,404 16,765 17,059 17,322 Ending Stocks 1,862 2,012 2,477 2,556 2,582 2,611 2,636 2,690 2,755 2,804 2,847


Brazilian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 32,480 34,000 35,750 36,567 37,609 38,531 39,297 40,114 40,883 41,628 42,389 Beginning Stocks 7,275 3,165 915 1,102 1,343 1,695 2,042 2,380 2,721 3,059 3,396 Net Imports 711 1,000 2,254 2,476 2,548 2,553 2,763 2,779 2,854 2,921 2,890 Total Supply 40,466 38,165 38,919 40,145 41,500 42,779 44,102 45,273 46,458 47,609 48,676 Domestic Use 37,191 37,250 37,816 38,801 39,805 40,737 41,722 42,552 43,399 44,212 44,941 Ending Stocks 3,165 915 1,102 1,343 1,695 2,042 2,380 2,721 3,059 3,396 3,734


Mexican Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 16,000 17,500 17,726 17,909 18,168 18,462 18,824 19,215 19,631 20,089 20,553 Beginning Stocks 1,650 1,600 1,050 862 801 772 755 736 720 705 686 Imports 6,379 3,500 3,917 3,952 4,061 4,235 4,335 4,404 4,466 4,582 4,733 Total Supply 24,029 22,600 22,692 22,722 23,030 23,468 23,913 24,356 24,817 25,377 25,972 Feed Use 7,400 6,100 6,794 6,649 6,759 6,982 7,221 7,452 7,700 8,057 8,444 Food, Other Use 14,979 15,400 15,037 15,272 15,500 15,731 15,956 16,183 16,412 16,634 16,858 Exports 50 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 22,429 21,550 21,831 21,921 22,259 22,713 23,177 23,635 24,112 24,691 25,302 Ending Stocks 1,600 1,050 862 801 772 755 736 720 705 686 669



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,500 5,000 4,469 4,553 4,590 4,628 4,687 4,708 4,727 4,736 4,733 Beginning Stocks 291 656 456 352 336 328 321 312 305 299 290 Imports 1,765 2,100 2,383 2,835 3,134 3,380 3,574 3,796 4,036 4,252 4,454 Total Supply 6,556 7,756 7,308 7,740 8,061 8,336 8,581 8,816 9,067 9,286 9,477 Domestic Use 5,900 7,300 6,957 7,403 7,733 8,015 8,269 8,511 8,769 8,996 9,195 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 5,900 7,300 6,957 7,403 7,733 8,015 8,269 8,511 8,769 8,996 9,195 Ending Stocks 656 456 352 336 328 321 312 305 299 290 282


Other Latin American Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 9,621 9,900 9,974 10,077 10,162 10,105 10,103 10,144 10,237 10,359 10,549 Beginning Stocks 1,208 871 892 795 795 811 803 802 809 827 852 Net Imports 5,482 6,676 6,865 6,583 6,878 7,466 7,830 8,310 8,720 9,132 9,584 Total Supply 16,311 17,447 17,732 17,454 17,835 18,382 18,736 19,256 19,766 20,318 20,985 Domestic Use 15,440 16,555 16,937 16,659 17,024 17,579 17,935 18,447 18,939 19,466 20,093 Ending Stocks 871 892 795 795 811 803 802 809 827 852 891

Indian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 9,700 11,000 11,600 11,715 11,962 11,991 12,060 12,089 12,187 12,309 12,419 Beginning Stocks 100 100 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Net Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 9,800 11,100 11,900 12,015 12,262 12,291 12,360 12,389 12,487 12,609 12,719 Domestic Use 9,675 10,800 11,600 11,715 11,962 11,991 12,060 12,089 12,187 12,309 12,419 Ending Stocks 100 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300



Indonesian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,300 6,210 5,891 5,917 6,031 6,196 6,375 6,581 6,775 6,955 7,143 Beginning Stocks 400 250 350 392 393 396 400 404 409 414 419 Imports 1,250 790 2,091 2,259 2,450 2,628 2,810 3,001 3,211 3,439 3,686 Total Supply 6,950 7,250 8,332 8,568 8,874 9,220 9,585 9,986 10,395 10,809 11,248 Feed Use 3,670 4,000 4,716 4,930 5,150 5,370 5,601 5,847 6,108 6,387 6,684 Food, Other Use 3,000 2,900 3,194 3,216 3,298 3,420 3,550 3,700 3,842 3,973 4,110 Exports 30 0 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Total Use 6,700 6,900 7,940 8,176 8,478 8,820 9,181 9,577 9,981 10,390 10,824 Ending Stocks 250 350 392 393 396 400 404 409 414 419 423

Malaysian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 40 45 40 41 42 43 43 44 45 46 46 Beginning Stocks 300 150 195 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 Imports 2,300 2,600 2,486 2,524 2,569 2,627 2,692 2,770 2,859 2,957 3,069 Total Supply 2,640 2,795 2,721 2,765 2,820 2,890 2,965 3,054 3,153 3,262 3,385 Feed Use 2,410 2,510 2,421 2,445 2,480 2,530 2,585 2,654 2,733 2,822 2,925 Food, Other Use 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 2,490 2,600 2,521 2,555 2,600 2,660 2,725 2,804 2,893 2,992 3,105 Ending Stocks 150 195 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280

Pakistani Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,275 1,300 1,303 1,310 1,322 1,338 1,353 1,366 1,379 1,393 1,409 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,275 1,300 1,303 1,310 1,322 1,338 1,353 1,366 1,379 1,393 1,409 Feed Use 430 450 434 437 440 444 448 452 456 459 463 Food, Other Use 845 850 870 874 881 894 905 914 923 934 946 Domestic Use 1,275 1,300 1,303 1,310 1,322 1,338 1,353 1,366 1,379 1,393 1,409 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,275 1,300 1,303 1,310 1,322 1,338 1,353 1,366 1,379 1,393 1,409 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 150 150 163 169 171 171 172 174 175 176 177 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 150 150 163 169 171 171 172 174 175 176 177 Feed Use 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use 150 150 163 169 171 171 172 174 175 176 177 Domestic Use 150 150 163 169 171 171 172 174 175 176 177 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 150 150 163 169 171 171 172 174 175 176 177 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 230 230 268 277 281 286 292 300 311 322 334 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 230 230 268 277 281 286 292 300 311 322 334 Feed Use 80 80 83 86 89 93 96 100 104 108 112 Food Use 150 150 185 191 192 193 196 200 207 215 223 Domestic Use 230 230 268 277 281 286 292 300 311 322 334 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 230 230 268 277 281 286 292 300 311 322 334 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


South Korean Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 74 70 85 83 82 80 78 77 75 73 71 Beginning Stocks 865 752 722 698 661 659 665 672 679 687 694 Net Imports 8,813 6,750 8,190 8,223 8,393 8,514 8,629 8,749 8,878 8,999 9,151 Total Supply 9,752 7,572 8,997 9,004 9,135 9,253 9,373 9,498 9,632 9,759 9,916 Feed Use 7,300 5,150 6,558 6,504 6,536 6,543 6,547 6,549 6,554 6,545 6,558 Food, Other Use 1,700 1,700 1,741 1,840 1,941 2,045 2,154 2,269 2,391 2,520 2,656 Total Use 9,000 6,850 8,299 8,343 8,477 8,587 8,701 8,818 8,946 9,065 9,214 Ending Stocks 752 722 698 661 659 665 672 679 687 694 703

Taiwanese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 250 250 257 260 264 267 271 275 279 284 288 Beginning Stocks 1,698 1,648 1,498 1,507 1,520 1,532 1,536 1,546 1,559 1,572 1,575 Net Imports 5,726 6,000 6,280 6,404 6,518 6,636 6,763 6,887 7,013 7,133 7,263 Total Supply 7,674 7,898 8,035 8,172 8,301 8,436 8,569 8,708 8,852 8,988 9,126 Feed Use 5,726 6,100 6,224 6,345 6,457 6,584 6,704 6,826 6,952 7,082 7,215 Food, Other Use 300 300 303 308 311 315 319 323 327 331 336 Total Use 6,026 6,400 6,527 6,652 6,768 6,900 7,023 7,149 7,279 7,413 7,550 Ending Stocks 1,648 1,498 1,507 1,520 1,532 1,536 1,546 1,559 1,572 1,575 1,576

Barley Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Imports 164 300 347 357 362 365 366 367 367 367 367 Total Supply 164 300 347 357 362 365 366 367 367 367 367 Feed Use 89 225 247 257 262 265 266 267 267 267 267 Food, Other Use 75 75 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Use 164 300 347 357 362 365 366 367 367 367 367 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Thai Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 3,700 4,000 3,894 3,938 3,994 4,052 4,109 4,167 4,225 4,282 4,340 Beginning Stocks 364 264 214 251 260 262 265 265 267 269 270 Total Supply 4,064 4,264 4,108 4,190 4,254 4,314 4,373 4,433 4,492 4,551 4,610 Domestic Use 3,962 4,350 4,217 4,357 4,506 4,673 4,854 5,055 5,276 5,516 5,781 Net Exports -162 -300 -361 -427 -514 -624 -746 -889 -1,053 -1,235 -1,442 Total Use 3,800 4,050 3,857 3,930 3,992 4,049 4,108 4,166 4,223 4,281 4,339 Ending Stocks 264 214 251 260 262 265 265 267 269 270 271

Vietnamese Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 900 1,000 1,006 993 983 983 987 1,000 1,019 1,042 1,071 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Total Supply 950 1,050 1,056 1,043 1,033 1,033 1,037 1,050 1,069 1,092 1,121 Feed Use 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food Use 900 1,000 956 943 933 933 937 950 969 992 1,021 Exports 50 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Use 950 1,050 1,056 1,043 1,033 1,033 1,037 1,050 1,069 1,092 1,121 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Other Asian Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 18,370 18,550 18,853 18,899 19,013 19,216 19,448 19,751 20,068 20,389 20,749 Beginning Stocks 245 195 245 280 326 318 326 324 331 345 363 Imports 816 1,050 1,236 1,163 1,479 1,597 1,761 1,738 1,855 1,929 1,975 Total Supply 19,431 19,795 20,335 20,342 20,818 21,131 21,535 21,813 22,254 22,663 23,087 Feed Use 6,366 6,900 6,536 6,716 6,935 7,189 7,421 7,669 7,924 8,199 8,506 Food Use 12,791 12,600 13,469 13,250 13,515 13,566 13,741 13,763 13,935 14,052 14,145 Domestic Use 19,157 19,500 20,005 19,966 20,449 20,754 21,162 21,432 21,859 22,251 22,652 Exports 79 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Total Use 19,236 19,550 20,055 20,016 20,499 20,804 21,212 21,482 21,909 22,301 22,702 Ending Stocks 195 245 280 326 318 326 324 331 345 363 385

Barley (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,117 1,117 1,032 971 932 911 908 904 894 879 864


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,815 1,825 1,674 1,596 1,551 1,536 1,550 1,564 1,565 1,557 1,549 Beginning Stocks 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Imports 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,840 1,845 1,694 1,616 1,571 1,556 1,570 1,584 1,585 1,577 1,569 Feed Use 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 Food Use 1,795 1,800 1,649 1,571 1,526 1,511 1,525 1,539 1,540 1,532 1,524 Domestic Use 1,820 1,825 1,674 1,596 1,551 1,536 1,550 1,564 1,565 1,557 1,549 Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,820 1,825 1,674 1,596 1,551 1,536 1,550 1,564 1,565 1,557 1,549 Ending Stocks 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20


Rest-of-World Feed-Grain Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Corn, Barley, Oats (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 482 479 469 470 473 470 468 466 467 468 473


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,200 2,268 2,240 2,269 2,305 2,313 2,326 2,339 2,362 2,393 2,437 Beginning Stocks 1,035 866 871 869 871 874 875 876 877 879 881 Net Imports 260 264 340 377 386 361 368 386 377 344 315 Total Supply 3,495 3,398 3,451 3,516 3,563 3,548 3,569 3,601 3,616 3,616 3,634 Domestic Use 2,629 2,526 2,582 2,644 2,689 2,673 2,693 2,724 2,737 2,735 2,749 Ending Stocks 866 871 869 871 874 875 876 877 879 881 885



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 17,499 18,766 18,665 18,577 18,508 18,509 18,548 18,634 18,724 18,805 18,904 Beginning Stocks 1,269 687 512 860 935 980 991 970 961 1,021 1,015 Imports 2,219 1,030 1,353 1,191 1,263 1,282 1,363 1,472 1,656 1,722 1,842 Total Supply 20,987 20,483 20,530 20,628 20,705 20,770 20,902 21,076 21,341 21,548 21,761 Domestic Use 20,034 19,756 19,170 19,193 19,225 19,280 19,432 19,616 19,820 20,033 20,239 Exports 266 215 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 Total Use 20,300 19,971 19,670 19,693 19,725 19,780 19,932 20,116 20,320 20,533 20,739 Ending Stocks 687 512 860 935 980 991 970 961 1,021 1,015 1,022

Oilseeds and Products

Soybean Complex

Rapeseed Complex

Sunflower Complex

Palm Oil Complex

World Soybean Complex

94 / Soybean Complex

Soybeans and Soybean Products

• World area under soybeans is projected to increase to over 69 mha by 2005/06 from the current 63.3 mha with an associ-ated increase of 28.5 mmt in soybean production. The increase in soybean crush is expected to increase the meal and oilproduction by about 20 mmt and 4.7 mmt, respectively. We project an increase of nearly 1 mha each in Argentinean andBrazilian soy area. This is, in part, in response to the recent changes in their agricultural policies that are expected tofavorably influence their soybean/soybean products sectors.

• Total soybean trade is expected to increase by more than 3 mmt by the end of the projection period. Most of the projectedincrease is expected to come from China, which is expected to increase its imports of soybeans from 1.3 mmt in 1996/97 to more than 3.2 mmt by 2005/06. Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to reach 5.4 mmt by the end of theperiod.

• A faster growth is expected in soy meal trade, partly as a result of increased meal demand from countries like China.India is expected to remain the fourth largest exporter and strengthen this position during the projection period. Thiswould necessitate even harder measures on the part of the United States to increase its share of the global trade in soymeal. No major shifts in domestic crushing capacity across countries are expected in that the proportion of beans andproducts traded is projected to remain stable over the period.

• Argentina has reduced subsidies to its vegetable oil exporters from 1.5 percent to 1.35 percent, amounting to a reductionof $2 per mt in processors’ incomes. Also, the subsidy to refined oil exports is also being cut. However, these changes arenot expected to impact Argentina’s standing as the leading soy oil exporter in the world during the projection period.Increased area (7.2 mha by 2005/06) and a 25 percent increase in soybean crushings are expected to increase Argentineansoy oil output to about 2.2 mmt by the end of the projection period.

• Brazil has also made significant changes in its agricultural export tax policies. Rio Grande do Sul has decreased the value-added tax on soy meal and soy oil to 5 percent from the current levels of 8 and 11.1 percent, respectively. Export taxes onsoybeans and soybean products have also been eliminated. Therefore, our projections for the Brazilian soybean sector arerather optimistic, with total area harvested projected to increase to 13.2 mha by 2005/06 and exports of raw soybeansare projected to increase to 5.4 mmt by that year.

• The continuing expansion of the Chinese meat sector is expected to drive much of the growth in soybean meal trade.Chinese soybean meal imports are projected to reach 2.2 mmt by 2005/06. Its soybean imports for domestic consumptionand crushing are projected to increase to more than 3.2 mmt by 2005/06 from the current import level of 1.3 mmt. In-creased income in China is also expected to be crucial in driving up soybean oil import demand by another .5 mmt.

• Soybean meal exports from India are also expected to continue their upward trend. Soybean meal is not a commonlivestock feed in India where most of the livestock is raised by individual family units. The Indian government’s policy ofprohibiting imports of oilseeds is under increased pressure from processors in the country who claim to have as much as35 percent excess crushing capacity. The government has indicated its willingness to lift the ban, which may invariablyresult in even higher exports of soybean meal from India.

• The oilseeds area in the EU is bound by the Blair House Agreement to a maximum of 5.482 mha (with 10 percent set-aside), after the inclusion of three new countries in the Union in 1995. In addition, it is also allowed to grow oilseeds forindustrial use on the set-aside area. The total production on this land is stipulated to be below 1 mmt in soybean mealequivalent. Most of this area is allocated to rapeseed, with sunflowers planted on the rest. Soybean and soybean mealimports by the EU are projected to increase to about 15 mmt and 14 mmt by the end of the projection period.

• Japan imports large amounts of soybeans for its domestic crushing industry. Its total imports of beans are projected togrow to 5.2 mmt by 2005/06 while its long-term meal imports are expected to stay in the range of 600 to 700 tmt.

• Like Japan, Taiwan also imports relatively larger quantities of beans for domestic crushing. Taiwanese bean imports areexpected to increase by about 400 tmt by the end of the period.

Soybean Complex / 95

• Economic recovery in the FSU countries is expected to increase their demand for both soybeans and soybean meal. Theirtotal soybean imports are projected to double to 246 tmt from the current level of 110 tmt over the projection period.

• South Korean bean and meal demand is also projected to grow at a faster rate, with bean imports increasing by more than225 tmt and its meal imports by 500 tmt by the end of the period. Mexican imports of soybeans are also projected togrow by about 800 tmt over this period.


Soybean Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 2,200 2,300 2,427 2,678 2,766 2,889 2,986 3,099 3,212 3,256 3,293 Brazil 2,100 3,000 3,542 3,796 4,021 4,218 4,443 4,663 4,899 5,215 5,364 Canada 530 350 480 566 579 569 560 542 526 513 497 Paraguay 1,400 1,450 1,547 1,575 1,598 1,617 1,638 1,661 1,679 1,694 1,713 United States 23,052 24,230 23,929 23,860 23,905 24,049 24,305 24,512 24,754 25,057 25,511


Net Importers Eastern Europe 280 310 324 371 395 396 403 401 405 415 416 European Union 13,918 14,063 14,060 14,308 14,390 14,473 14,592 14,648 14,754 14,868 14,947 Former Soviet Union 120 110 121 131 143 157 173 189 207 226 246 Russia 50 40 57 68 76 85 93 101 109 118 126 Ukraine 20 20 18 17 18 20 24 30 36 45 54 Other Former Soviet 50 50 45 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 66 Japan 4,800 4,860 4,932 4,972 5,003 5,029 5,057 5,084 5,112 5,140 5,167 Developing 7,084 7,879 8,342 8,590 8,940 9,321 9,732 10,129 10,482 10,862 11,236 China 572 1,300 1,472 1,576 1,761 1,985 2,248 2,510 2,732 2,984 3,233 India 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Mexico 2,562 2,679 2,766 2,906 3,021 3,120 3,205 3,281 3,353 3,419 3,481 South Korea 1,400 1,400 1,504 1,483 1,500 1,521 1,544 1,566 1,589 1,610 1,629 Taiwan 2,550 2,500 2,600 2,625 2,657 2,695 2,736 2,771 2,808 2,849 2,893 Rest of World 3,688 3,826 4,146 4,104 3,997 3,964 3,975 4,025 4,111 4,225 4,367 Residual -609 282 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Net Imports 29,282 31,330 31,925 32,475 32,868 33,340 33,932 34,476 35,071 35,736 36,378

Soybean Prices (Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB Gulf 267 270 247 232 230 235 237 241 245 250 258 CIF Rotterdam 304 305 282 267 266 271 273 276 280 285 293


Soybean Meal Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 8,000 8,200 8,620 8,860 8,998 9,153 9,345 9,518 9,698 9,938 10,192 Brazil 10,700 11,150 11,691 11,880 12,107 12,167 12,306 12,436 12,583 12,680 12,857 India 2,500 2,200 2,776 2,825 2,872 2,981 3,118 3,235 3,357 3,474 3,595 Paraguay 508 587 643 690 727 764 805 841 883 928 970 United States 5,377 5,791 5,753 5,613 5,616 5,783 6,012 6,003 5,990 5,948 6,026


Net Importers Canada 760 630 643 664 683 710 739 762 776 792 815 Eastern Europe 1,853 1,810 1,965 2,036 2,085 2,130 2,168 2,203 2,243 2,299 2,360 European Union 12,758 12,680 13,203 13,427 13,339 13,273 13,436 13,707 13,820 13,892 14,042 Former Soviet Union 585 590 541 561 569 588 601 613 623 635 640 Russia 95 100 94 100 98 99 106 110 113 119 125 Ukraine 250 250 208 216 224 238 243 249 253 257 255 Other Former Soviet 240 240 239 245 247 251 252 255 257 259 260 Japan 740 657 742 726 705 686 677 672 653 623 588 Developing 2,181 2,917 3,105 3,345 3,449 3,564 3,658 3,789 3,908 3,979 4,035 China 829 1,700 1,676 1,811 1,899 1,992 2,046 2,108 2,195 2,219 2,234 Mexico 302 277 326 369 330 304 300 314 299 304 303 South Korea 1,000 900 1,052 1,122 1,182 1,237 1,287 1,340 1,385 1,427 1,471 Taiwan 50 40 50 43 38 32 25 27 29 29 27 Rest of World 9,215 9,186 9,285 9,109 9,490 9,898 10,306 10,287 10,487 10,747 11,159 Residual -1007 -542 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Prices (Dollars per Metric Ton) Decatur 44% 245.82 240.34 216.93 207.38 209.92 214.81 216.82 215.56 216.48 218.30 221.65 CIF Rotterdam 256.00 273.08 232.65 224.22 226.46 230.78 232.56 231.45 232.26 233.86 236.82


Soybean Oil Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 1,600 1,636 1,768 1,815 1,841 1,871 1,907 1,941 1,976 2,023 2,073 Brazil 1,250 1,430 1,586 1,620 1,701 1,739 1,796 1,840 1,889 1,917 1,977 European Union 500 515 422 429 401 381 358 331 309 287 268 Paraguay 127 144 162 175 185 194 206 216 227 240 251 United States 407 731 789 820 839 914 956 1,016 1,075 1,145 1,209


Net Importers Canada 0 -20 -31 -36 -39 -41 -43 -44 -45 -46 -46 Eastern Europe 110 113 118 123 129 134 141 147 153 160 167 Former Soviet Union 57 74 90 94 96 96 100 103 106 108 110 Russia 32 32 43 47 49 49 54 58 62 65 69 Ukraine 25 38 42 43 43 43 42 42 40 39 36 Other Former Soviet 0 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Japan 50 -54 30 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 Developing 1,524 1,653 1,644 1,677 1,736 1,769 1,821 1,883 1,971 2,072 2,198 China 1,379 1,460 1,551 1,583 1,627 1,660 1,710 1,758 1,826 1,903 1,982 India 60 110 2 1 12 6 -4 -9 -13 -14 6 Mexico 40 38 47 38 33 30 33 41 52 65 79 South Korea 35 35 32 43 54 64 74 85 95 107 119 Taiwan 10 10 12 12 10 9 8 9 10 12 13 Rest of World 2,331 2,557 2,876 2,982 3,023 3,119 3,182 3,231 3,269 3,295 3,327 Residual -188 133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Prices (Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB Decatur 545.64 510.50 421.08 464.66 453.04 461.47 468.40 490.32 509.17 531.10 557.45 FOB Dutch 575.00 531.33 507.79 476.90 463.96 473.34 481.06 505.46 526.45 550.87 580.22


World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Soybeans (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 61,365 63,263 64,783 65,861 65,904 66,306 67,011 67,472 68,118 68,782 69,364

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 124,392 132,025 138,145 141,624 143,395 145,771 148,973 151,557 154,613 157,688 160,599 Crush 110,411 114,170 116,710 119,367 121,960 124,475 127,158 129,467 132,013 134,632 137,306 Other Use 16,060 16,162 17,154 17,562 17,836 18,117 18,475 18,846 19,251 19,673 20,087

Trade /a 28,710 30,030 30,453 30,899 31,107 31,355 31,684 31,966 32,339 32,752 33,146

Soybean Meal Production 85,072 92,744 96,032 98,218 100,346 102,417 104,619 106,507 108,596 110,749 112,934

Consumption 91,401 92,852 95,585 97,566 99,726 101,778 103,941 105,816 107,916 110,076 112,259

Trade /a 26,256 26,228 27,807 28,057 28,421 28,856 29,540 29,925 30,315 30,749 31,406

Soybean Oil Production 19,810 20,229 21,075 21,570 22,058 22,532 23,034 23,469 23,951 24,446 24,954

Consumption 19,693 20,216 20,994 21,531 22,033 22,515 23,013 23,459 23,935 24,426 24,941 Per Capita (kg) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Trade /a 3,884 4,457 4,727 4,861 4,966 5,099 5,223 5,343 5,476 5,612 5,778



U.S. Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 59,243 64,837 66,355 67,606 67,317 67,824 68,936 69,562 70,575 71,619 72,473 Beginning Stocks 9,117 4,991 4,401 5,330 6,780 7,148 7,092 7,169 7,129 7,171 7,228 Imports 109 120 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 Total Supply 68,469 69,948 70,893 73,072 74,232 75,108 76,164 76,867 77,840 78,926 79,837 Crush 37,285 38,040 38,363 39,161 39,893 40,656 41,360 41,874 42,539 43,244 43,815 Seed, Residual 3,021 3,158 3,134 3,138 3,159 3,187 3,204 3,226 3,247 3,263 3,297 Exports 23,160 24,350 24,065 23,993 24,032 24,174 24,430 24,638 24,883 25,191 25,640 Total Use 63,467 65,547 65,563 66,292 67,084 68,017 68,994 69,738 70,670 71,698 72,752 Ending Stocks 4,991 4,401 5,330 6,780 7,148 7,092 7,169 7,129 7,171 7,228 7,086

Soybean Meal Production 29,495 30,061 30,531 31,166 31,748 32,355 32,916 33,324 33,854 34,415 34,869 Beginning Stocks 202 208 182 209 209 203 199 200 202 201 201 Imports 68 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 73 Total Supply 29,766 30,341 30,786 31,447 32,030 32,631 33,188 33,597 34,128 34,689 35,143 Domestic Use 24,114 24,295 24,751 25,550 26,136 26,572 26,901 27,317 27,864 28,468 28,840 Exports 5,445 5,864 5,826 5,688 5,691 5,859 6,087 6,078 6,063 6,020 6,103 Total Use 29,558 30,159 30,577 31,237 31,827 32,431 32,988 33,395 33,927 34,488 34,943 Ending Stocks 208 182 209 209 203 199 200 202 201 201 200

Soybean Oil Production 6,911 6,926 7,162 7,314 7,454 7,600 7,735 7,835 7,963 8,098 8,209 Beginning Stocks 516 914 913 954 991 1,012 1,024 1,038 1,042 1,050 1,061 Imports 43 48 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Total Supply 7,470 7,888 8,097 8,291 8,468 8,635 8,782 8,896 9,028 9,171 9,293 Domestic Use 6,105 6,197 6,331 6,457 6,594 6,674 6,765 6,815 6,879 6,943 6,995 Exports 450 779 812 844 862 937 978 1,039 1,098 1,168 1,233 Total Use 6,556 6,976 7,143 7,300 7,456 7,611 7,743 7,854 7,978 8,110 8,228 Ending Stocks 914 913 954 991 1,012 1,024 1,038 1,042 1,050 1,061 1,065

Argentine Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 12,640 13,000 13,905 14,445 14,716 15,039 15,385 15,725 16,074 16,426 16,785 Beginning Stocks 660 344 369 394 384 373 363 352 341 331 320 Total Supply 13,300 13,344 14,274 14,839 15,100 15,413 15,748 16,077 16,415 16,757 17,105 Crush 10,100 10,400 10,981 11,286 11,455 11,643 11,878 12,092 12,314 12,610 12,920 Other Use 446 465 471 491 506 519 532 545 558 571 582 Net Exports 2,200 2,300 2,427 2,678 2,766 2,889 2,986 3,099 3,212 3,256 3,293 Total Use 12,746 13,165 13,880 14,455 14,727 15,050 15,396 15,736 16,085 16,437 16,795 Ending Stocks 344 369 394 384 373 363 352 341 331 320 310

Soybean Meal Production 8,160 8,400 8,895 9,142 9,278 9,431 9,621 9,795 9,974 10,214 10,465 Beginning Stocks 293 232 254 264 275 286 298 309 320 331 343 Total Supply 8,453 8,632 9,149 9,406 9,553 9,717 9,919 10,104 10,295 10,545 10,808 Domestic Use 250 250 265 270 269 266 265 266 265 264 263 Net Exports 8,000 8,200 8,620 8,860 8,998 9,153 9,345 9,518 9,698 9,938 10,192 Total Use 8,250 8,450 8,885 9,131 9,267 9,419 9,610 9,783 9,963 10,203 10,454 Ending Stocks 232 254 264 275 286 298 309 320 331 343 354

Soybean Oil Production 1,694 1,730 1,867 1,919 1,947 1,979 2,019 2,056 2,093 2,144 2,196 Beginning Stocks 31 42 51 52 54 54 55 55 54 54 54 Total Supply 1,725 1,772 1,918 1,971 2,001 2,034 2,074 2,110 2,148 2,198 2,250 Domestic Use 83 85 97 102 105 109 112 115 118 121 124 Net Exports 1,600 1,636 1,768 1,815 1,841 1,871 1,907 1,941 1,976 2,023 2,073 Total Use 1,683 1,721 1,866 1,917 1,946 1,979 2,019 2,056 2,094 2,144 2,197 Ending Stocks 42 51 52 54 54 55 55 54 54 54 53


Brazilian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 23,400 26,000 27,733 28,320 29,119 29,659 30,321 30,907 31,534 32,124 32,720 Beginning Stocks 660 635 710 727 725 725 726 727 732 735 739 Total Supply 24,060 26,635 28,443 29,046 29,844 30,383 31,046 31,634 32,266 32,859 33,459 Crush 20,000 22,278 22,381 22,726 23,299 23,641 24,078 24,442 24,834 25,109 25,554 Other Use 1,525 1,725 1,793 1,799 1,799 1,799 1,799 1,798 1,798 1,797 1,797 Net Exports 2,100 3,000 3,542 3,796 4,021 4,218 4,443 4,663 4,899 5,215 5,364 Total Use 23,625 27,003 27,717 28,321 29,120 29,658 30,319 30,903 31,531 32,121 32,716 Ending Stocks 635 710 727 725 725 726 727 732 735 739 743

Soybean Meal Production 15,563 16,663 17,681 17,954 18,407 18,677 19,021 19,309 19,619 19,836 20,188 Beginning Stocks 881 444 457 515 521 528 535 542 549 557 564 Total Supply 16,444 17,107 18,138 18,468 18,928 19,205 19,556 19,851 20,168 20,392 20,752 Domestic Use 5,300 5,500 5,933 6,067 6,293 6,503 6,708 6,865 7,029 7,148 7,323 Net Exports 10,700 11,150 11,691 11,880 12,107 12,167 12,306 12,436 12,583 12,680 12,857 Total Use 16,000 16,650 17,624 17,947 18,400 18,670 19,014 19,301 19,611 19,828 20,180 Ending Stocks 444 457 515 521 528 535 542 549 557 564 572

Soybean Oil Production 3,722 3,986 4,252 4,318 4,427 4,492 4,575 4,644 4,718 4,771 4,855 Beginning Stocks 187 184 190 193 196 199 202 205 208 211 214 Total Supply 3,909 4,170 4,442 4,511 4,623 4,690 4,776 4,849 4,926 4,981 5,069 Domestic Use 2,475 2,550 2,664 2,695 2,723 2,750 2,776 2,801 2,826 2,851 2,875 Net Exports 1,250 1,430 1,586 1,620 1,701 1,739 1,796 1,840 1,889 1,917 1,977 Total Use 3,725 3,980 4,250 4,315 4,424 4,489 4,572 4,641 4,715 4,767 4,852 Ending Stocks 184 190 193 196 199 202 205 208 211 214 217



Canadian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Soybeans (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 824 860 888 915 924 927 931 932 935 938 939


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,291 2,167 2,349 2,454 2,497 2,520 2,545 2,561 2,580 2,602 2,620 Beginning Stocks 183 185 160 170 174 176 177 178 179 180 181 Total Supply 2,474 2,352 2,509 2,624 2,671 2,695 2,722 2,739 2,760 2,783 2,801 Crush 1,252 1,360 1,380 1,408 1,435 1,460 1,487 1,512 1,538 1,565 1,590 Other Use 509 485 480 476 481 489 497 507 515 524 533 Net Exports 530 350 480 566 579 569 560 542 526 513 497 Total Use 2,291 2,195 2,339 2,450 2,495 2,518 2,544 2,560 2,580 2,602 2,620 Ending Stocks 185 160 170 174 176 177 178 179 180 181 181

Soybean Meal Production 989 1,070 1,098 1,120 1,142 1,162 1,183 1,203 1,223 1,245 1,265 Beginning Stocks 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Net Imports 760 630 643 664 683 710 739 762 776 792 815 Total Supply 1,754 1,705 1,746 1,789 1,830 1,877 1,927 1,970 2,005 2,041 2,086 Domestic Use 1,749 1,700 1,741 1,784 1,825 1,872 1,922 1,965 2,000 2,036 2,081 Ending Stocks 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Soybean Oil Production 206 226 228 233 237 242 246 250 255 259 263 Beginning Stocks 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Net Imports 0 -20 -31 -36 -39 -41 -43 -44 -45 -46 -46 Total Supply 216 216 208 207 208 211 213 216 219 223 227 Domestic Use 206 206 198 197 198 201 203 206 209 213 217 Ending Stocks 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10


Chinese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 13,500 12,500 12,987 13,520 14,049 14,552 15,077 15,600 16,138 16,688 17,250 Net Imports 572 1,300 1,472 1,576 1,761 1,985 2,248 2,510 2,732 2,984 3,233 Total Supply 14,072 13,800 14,459 15,096 15,810 16,537 17,325 18,110 18,870 19,673 20,482 Crush 7,454 7,500 7,850 8,393 9,027 9,698 10,403 11,108 11,781 12,498 13,232 Food Use 5,548 5,440 5,800 5,904 5,971 6,000 6,047 6,086 6,126 6,161 6,182 Other Use 1,070 860 808 799 812 839 875 916 963 1,014 1,068 Total Use 14,072 13,800 14,459 15,096 15,810 16,537 17,325 18,110 18,870 19,673 20,482 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Soybean Meal Production 6,038 6,075 6,359 6,798 7,312 7,855 8,426 8,997 9,543 10,123 10,718 Net Imports 829 1,700 1,676 1,811 1,899 1,992 2,046 2,108 2,195 2,219 2,234 Total Supply 6,867 7,775 8,035 8,610 9,210 9,848 10,472 11,105 11,738 12,342 12,952 Domestic Use 6,867 7,775 8,035 8,610 9,210 9,848 10,472 11,105 11,738 12,342 12,952 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Soybean Oil Production 1,147 1,154 1,268 1,371 1,490 1,618 1,754 1,892 2,026 2,170 2,319 Net Imports 1,379 1,460 1,551 1,583 1,627 1,660 1,710 1,758 1,826 1,903 1,982 Total Supply 2,526 2,614 2,819 2,954 3,118 3,278 3,464 3,650 3,853 4,073 4,302 Domestic Use 2,611 2,617 2,819 2,954 3,118 3,278 3,464 3,650 3,853 4,073 4,302 Change in Stocks -85 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Paraguayan Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,299 2,496 2,600 2,697 2,775 2,850 2,932 3,009 3,089 3,172 3,253 Beginning Stocks 96 195 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 Imports 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Supply 2,495 2,791 2,991 3,088 3,166 3,241 3,322 3,400 3,480 3,562 3,644 Crush 750 850 951 1,017 1,072 1,126 1,186 1,240 1,302 1,369 1,430 Other Use 50 100 103 105 106 107 108 108 109 109 110 Exports 1,500 1,550 1,647 1,675 1,698 1,717 1,738 1,761 1,779 1,794 1,813 Total Use 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,797 2,875 2,950 3,032 3,109 3,189 3,272 3,353 Ending Stocks 195 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291 291

Soybean Meal Production 593 672 732 783 825 867 913 955 1,002 1,054 1,101 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 593 672 732 783 825 867 913 955 1,002 1,054 1,101 Domestic Use 85 85 89 94 98 103 108 114 120 126 132 Net Exports 508 587 643 690 727 764 805 841 883 928 970 Total Use 593 672 732 783 825 867 913 955 1,002 1,054 1,101 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Soybean Oil Production 141 160 181 193 204 214 225 236 247 260 272 Beginning Stocks 9 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Total Supply 150 167 189 202 212 222 234 244 256 268 280 Domestic Use 15 15 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 Net Exports 127 144 162 175 185 194 206 216 227 240 251 Total Use 142 159 180 194 204 214 225 236 247 260 272 Ending Stocks 7 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8


Eastern European Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 303 351 346 328 323 337 365 407 461 526 602 Beginning Stocks 0 0 2 6 10 17 17 17 17 17 17 Imports 285 315 329 376 400 401 408 406 410 420 421 Total Supply 588 666 677 710 733 755 790 830 888 963 1,040 Crush 486 557 584 609 623 643 676 715 773 848 926 Other Use 74 84 88 91 93 95 97 98 98 98 98 Exports 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total Use 565 646 676 705 721 743 778 818 876 951 1,028 Ending Stocks 0 2 6 10 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Soybean Meal Production 387 444 467 487 498 514 541 572 618 678 741 Beginning Stocks 48 24 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 Imports 1,915 1,880 2,037 2,110 2,161 2,208 2,248 2,285 2,327 2,385 2,448 Total Supply 2,350 2,348 2,528 2,624 2,688 2,752 2,821 2,891 2,982 3,102 3,229 Domestic Use 2,264 2,254 2,430 2,522 2,582 2,642 2,707 2,773 2,860 2,976 3,099 Exports 62 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 Total Use 2,326 2,324 2,502 2,596 2,658 2,720 2,787 2,855 2,944 3,062 3,187 Ending Stocks 24 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42

Soybean Oil Production 83 96 105 110 112 116 122 129 139 153 167 Beginning Stocks 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Imports 111 114 119 124 130 135 142 148 154 161 168 Total Supply 199 215 229 240 249 259 272 287 304 325 347 Domestic Use 193 209 223 233 241 250 262 276 292 312 333 Exports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Total Use 194 210 224 234 242 251 263 277 293 313 334 Ending Stocks 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14


European Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 939 1,090 1,095 1,093 1,097 1,101 1,106 1,110 1,115 1,120 1,124 Beginning Stocks 929 735 724 774 810 813 802 796 787 778 768 Net Imports 13,918 14,063 14,060 14,308 14,390 14,473 14,592 14,648 14,754 14,868 14,947 Total Supply 15,786 15,888 15,879 16,175 16,298 16,388 16,500 16,554 16,656 16,766 16,839 Crush 13,510 13,689 13,591 13,729 13,766 13,805 13,848 13,846 13,891 13,950 13,994 Other Use 1,541 1,475 1,514 1,635 1,719 1,782 1,855 1,921 1,987 2,049 2,095 Total Use 15,051 15,164 15,105 15,364 15,485 15,587 15,703 15,767 15,878 15,998 16,089 Ending Stocks 735 724 774 810 813 802 796 787 778 768 750

Soybean Meal Production 10,800 10,957 10,874 10,986 11,016 11,049 11,084 11,084 11,121 11,168 11,205 Beginning Stocks 1,119 1,114 1,128 885 925 939 949 967 998 1,021 1,041 Net Imports 12,758 12,680 13,203 13,427 13,339 13,273 13,436 13,707 13,820 13,892 14,042 Total Supply 24,677 24,751 25,205 25,298 25,281 25,260 25,469 25,759 25,938 26,081 26,288 Domestic Use 23,563 23,623 24,320 24,373 24,342 24,311 24,501 24,761 24,917 25,040 25,232 Ending Stocks 1,114 1,128 885 925 939 949 967 998 1,021 1,041 1,056

Soybean Oil Production 2,418 2,448 2,461 2,488 2,496 2,505 2,515 2,517 2,527 2,539 2,549 Beginning Stocks 241 228 177 206 205 203 200 197 194 190 186 Total Supply 2,659 2,676 2,638 2,694 2,702 2,709 2,716 2,714 2,720 2,729 2,736 Domestic Use 1,931 1,984 2,010 2,059 2,098 2,128 2,160 2,190 2,221 2,256 2,285 Net Exports 500 515 422 429 401 381 358 331 309 287 268 Total Use 2,431 2,499 2,432 2,489 2,498 2,508 2,518 2,521 2,530 2,543 2,553 Ending Stocks 228 177 206 205 203 200 197 194 190 186 183



Russian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 291 350 356 363 369 376 383 389 396 402 409 Beginning Stocks 143 184 199 249 313 384 458 535 613 691 770 Net Imports 50 40 57 68 76 85 93 101 109 118 126 Total Supply 484 574 613 679 759 844 934 1,025 1,118 1,211 1,305 Crush 250 365 354 355 362 372 383 396 409 422 435 Other Use 50 10 10 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 20 Total Use 300 375 364 367 375 386 399 413 427 441 456 Ending Stocks 184 199 249 313 384 458 535 613 691 770 850

Soybean Meal Production 195 281 281 282 287 295 304 314 325 335 345 Net Imports 95 100 94 100 98 99 106 110 113 119 125 Total Supply 290 381 375 382 385 394 410 424 437 454 470 Domestic Use 290 381 375 382 385 394 410 424 437 454 470 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Soybean Oil Production 30 52 53 57 62 67 69 71 74 76 78 Net Imports 32 32 43 47 49 49 54 58 62 65 69 Total Supply 62 84 96 104 110 116 123 129 135 141 148 Domestic Use 62 84 96 104 110 116 123 129 135 141 148 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Ukrainian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 30 20 21 22 25 28 33 39 46 54 64 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Imports 20 20 18 17 18 20 24 30 36 45 54 Total Supply 50 40 39 39 43 49 57 68 82 99 119 Crush 40 35 31 31 33 38 45 54 66 80 97 Other Use 10 5 7 8 9 11 12 14 16 19 21 Total Use 50 40 39 39 42 49 57 68 82 99 119 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0




Other Former Soviet Union Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 39 39 44 49 52 55 58 60 62 64 66 Net Imports 50 50 45 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 66 Total Supply 89 89 90 95 101 108 113 119 123 127 131 Crush 79 79 80 85 91 97 102 107 112 116 120 Feed and Seed 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 Total Use 89 89 90 95 101 108 113 119 123 127 131 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0





Japanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 119 120 119 118 117 117 119 122 127 132 138 Beginning Stocks 622 561 511 515 518 519 520 520 521 521 522 Net Imports 4,800 4,860 4,932 4,972 5,003 5,029 5,057 5,084 5,112 5,140 5,167 Total Supply 5,541 5,541 5,562 5,605 5,638 5,665 5,695 5,727 5,760 5,794 5,827 Crush 3,700 3,750 3,759 3,792 3,816 3,837 3,860 3,885 3,911 3,937 3,964 Food Use 930 940 948 955 962 968 975 981 988 995 1,002 Other Use 350 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 Total Use 4,980 5,030 5,047 5,087 5,119 5,145 5,175 5,206 5,239 5,272 5,305 Ending Stocks 561 511 515 518 519 520 520 521 521 522 521

Soybean Meal Production 2,870 2,865 2,932 2,958 2,977 2,993 3,011 3,030 3,050 3,071 3,092 Beginning Stocks 115 178 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Net Imports 740 657 742 726 705 686 677 672 653 623 588 Total Supply 3,725 3,700 3,774 3,784 3,782 3,779 3,788 3,802 3,803 3,794 3,780 Domestic Use 3,547 3,600 3,674 3,684 3,682 3,679 3,688 3,702 3,703 3,694 3,680 Ending Stocks 178 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Soybean Oil Production 666 670 677 683 687 691 695 699 704 709 713 Beginning Stocks 31 73 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Net Imports 50 -54 30 20 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 Total Supply 747 689 717 723 728 733 737 742 747 752 756 Domestic Use 674 679 697 703 708 713 717 722 727 732 736 Ending Stocks 73 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20


Indian Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,480 4,000 4,857 4,966 5,071 5,257 5,486 5,696 5,917 6,140 6,373 Beginning Stocks 101 110 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 Net Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 4,580 4,110 5,057 5,166 5,271 5,457 5,686 5,896 6,117 6,340 6,573 Crush 4,000 3,620 4,391 4,474 4,551 4,706 4,898 5,069 5,245 5,418 5,597 Other Use 470 400 466 491 520 551 588 627 672 722 776 Total Use 4,470 4,020 4,857 4,966 5,071 5,257 5,486 5,696 5,917 6,140 6,373 Ending Stocks 110 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

Soybean Meal Production 3,200 2,895 3,513 3,579 3,641 3,765 3,918 4,055 4,196 4,335 4,478 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 3,200 2,895 3,513 3,579 3,641 3,765 3,918 4,055 4,196 4,335 4,478 Domestic Use 700 695 737 754 769 784 801 820 840 861 883 Net Exports 2,500 2,200 2,776 2,825 2,872 2,981 3,118 3,235 3,357 3,474 3,595 Total Use 3,200 2,895 3,513 3,579 3,641 3,765 3,918 4,055 4,196 4,335 4,478 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Soybean Oil Production 704 652 790 805 819 847 882 912 944 975 1,008 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Imports 60 110 2 1 12 6 -4 -9 -13 -14 6 Total Supply 764 762 792 806 832 853 878 903 931 961 1,013 Domestic Use 764 762 792 806 832 853 878 903 931 961 1,013 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mexican Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 190 162 271 288 307 326 347 369 393 417 442 Beginning Stocks 100 133 138 148 156 162 168 173 178 183 187 Net Imports 2,562 2,679 2,766 2,906 3,021 3,120 3,205 3,281 3,353 3,419 3,481 Total Supply 2,853 2,973 3,176 3,342 3,483 3,608 3,720 3,823 3,924 4,018 4,110 Crush 2,650 2,765 2,956 3,113 3,245 3,362 3,466 3,563 3,655 3,742 3,826 Other Use 70 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 86 89 92 Total Use 2,720 2,835 3,028 3,187 3,321 3,440 3,546 3,645 3,741 3,831 3,918 Ending Stocks 133 138 148 156 162 168 173 178 183 187 191


Soybean Oil Production 451 471 502 529 552 571 589 606 621 636 650 Beginning Stocks 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 Net Imports 40 38 47 38 33 30 33 41 52 65 79 Total Supply 514 533 574 593 611 630 652 676 705 734 762 Domestic Use 490 508 548 566 583 601 622 645 673 701 728 Ending Stocks 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34


South Korean Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 160 160 184 192 193 192 191 190 190 190 191 Beginning Stocks 189 173 157 186 187 188 189 191 192 194 196 Net Imports 1,400 1,400 1,504 1,483 1,500 1,521 1,544 1,566 1,589 1,610 1,629 Total Supply 1,749 1,733 1,845 1,861 1,880 1,901 1,924 1,947 1,972 1,995 2,016 Crush 1,200 1,200 1,203 1,208 1,216 1,226 1,238 1,250 1,263 1,276 1,286 Food Use 360 360 439 450 460 470 479 489 498 507 516 Other Use 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Domestic Use 1,576 1,576 1,658 1,674 1,692 1,712 1,733 1,755 1,777 1,799 1,818 Ending Stocks 173 157 186 187 188 189 191 192 194 196 197

Soybean Meal Production 950 950 962 966 973 981 990 1,000 1,011 1,021 1,029 Beginning Stocks 464 574 584 589 601 618 637 657 678 699 720 Net Imports 1,000 900 1,052 1,122 1,182 1,237 1,287 1,340 1,385 1,427 1,471 Total Supply 2,414 2,424 2,599 2,677 2,755 2,835 2,914 2,997 3,073 3,147 3,220 Domestic Use 1,840 1,840 2,010 2,076 2,137 2,198 2,257 2,319 2,374 2,427 2,479 Ending Stocks 574 584 589 601 618 637 657 678 699 720 741



Taiwanese Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 10 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 Beginning Stocks 90 116 111 127 129 131 132 134 136 138 140 Net Imports 2,550 2,500 2,600 2,625 2,657 2,695 2,736 2,771 2,808 2,849 2,893 Total Supply 2,650 2,628 2,724 2,765 2,800 2,839 2,882 2,919 2,958 3,000 3,046 Crush 2,250 2,230 2,286 2,318 2,344 2,374 2,406 2,433 2,461 2,492 2,526 Food Use 270 272 298 305 312 320 328 337 346 356 366 Other Use 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 Domestic Use 2,534 2,515 2,597 2,636 2,669 2,706 2,748 2,783 2,820 2,861 2,905 Ending Stocks 116 111 127 129 131 132 134 136 138 140 142





Rest-of-World Soybean Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,459 4,720 4,908 5,150 5,355 5,524 5,677 5,797 5,902 5,997 6,075 Beginning Stocks 334 329 330 338 343 346 348 349 349 350 350 Net Imports 3,688 3,826 4,146 4,104 3,997 3,964 3,975 4,025 4,111 4,225 4,367 Total Supply 8,481 8,875 9,384 9,591 9,695 9,834 10,000 10,171 10,362 10,572 10,793 Crush 5,405 5,453 5,568 5,661 5,734 5,792 5,843 5,882 5,920 5,958 5,992 Other Use 2,747 3,092 3,478 3,587 3,616 3,695 3,809 3,939 4,093 4,264 4,450 Total Use 8,152 8,545 9,046 9,248 9,349 9,487 9,651 9,821 10,013 10,222 10,442 Ending Stocks 329 330 338 343 346 348 349 349 350 350 350

Soybean Meal Production 4,253 4,287 4,405 4,478 4,536 4,582 4,622 4,653 4,683 4,713 4,740 Beginning Stocks 721 604 289 283 285 285 285 285 286 286 287 Net Imports 9,215 9,186 9,285 9,109 9,490 9,898 10,306 10,287 10,487 10,747 11,159 Total Supply 14,189 14,077 13,979 13,870 14,310 14,765 15,214 15,226 15,456 15,747 16,186 Domestic Use 13,556 13,515 13,696 13,586 14,025 14,480 14,928 14,940 15,170 15,460 15,899 Ending Stocks 604 289 283 285 285 285 285 286 286 287 287

Soybean Oil Production 1,001 1,034 893 908 919 929 937 943 949 955 961 Beginning Stocks 297 237 215 209 206 207 210 214 220 227 234 Net Imports 2,331 2,557 2,876 2,982 3,023 3,119 3,182 3,231 3,269 3,295 3,327 Total Supply 3,629 3,828 3,983 4,098 4,149 4,254 4,328 4,389 4,438 4,477 4,522 Domestic Use 3,393 3,613 3,775 3,892 3,942 4,045 4,114 4,169 4,211 4,242 4,279 Ending Stocks 237 215 209 206 207 210 214 220 227 234 243

World Rapeseed Complex

122 / Rapeseed Complex

Rapeseed and Rapeseed Products

• Total rapeseed trade is expected to increase by more than 35 percent during the projection period. China is expected tostay a net importer of rapeseed during this period. The canola area in Canada is expected to recover from last year’srecord drop and strengthen during the projection period.

• Canola meal is imported from Canada primarily by the EU and Japan for its meal quality. Rapemeal from the rapeseedvarieties grown in countries like China and India is not suitable for animal consumption. Most of the rapemeal is exportedfrom India to the EU for industrial purposes. Total trade in meal also shows similar growth as rapeseed.

• Rape oil is used in cooking in China, India and some other developing countries, and is also used in several industrialproducts. Increasing incomes in these countries are expected to drive the demand for rape oil, increasing total tradevolume by about 50 percent by the end of the projection period.

• Canola area in Canada shrank to 3.5 mha in 1996/97 from the record 5.3 mha in the previous year. We project this area torecover to 4.6 mha in 1997/98 and increase to around 5.7 mha by the end of the period. Increased demand for rapeseed oilfrom China and its increasing import requirements of rapeseed are expected to drive much of the rapeseed market. TotalCanadian rapeseed exports are projected to reach 3.5 mmt by 2005/06.

• Increased demand for rapeseed oil due to increasing incomes in China is expected to keep China a net importer ofrapeseed in the projection period. Although the area harvested under rapeseed is expected to grow by another 1.7 mha bythe end of the period, Chinese rapeseed imports are projected to increase to 166 tmt by 2005/06. Chinese imports of rapeoil would be about 763 tmt by 2005/06. The meal from rapeseed varieties grown in China is generally unsuitable forlivestock feeding purposes due to its highly toxic composition. Genetic research is underway in Chinese universities aswell as at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences to find a widely cultivable variety of rapeseed with lower toxicremnants in meal. No such breakthrough is expected in the short run and China is projected to continue to be a netexporter of rape meal in the projection period.

• Rapeseed varieties grown in India also face the same challenge. While all of the rapeseed output is crushed domesticallyto meet oil demand, most of the meal is exported to countries like the EU where it is used for industrial purposes. Indianexports of rapeseed meal are expected to increase to more than 1.3 mmt by the end of the projection period. Like China,the Indian government is also placing added emphasis on the research to further refine the rape meal to reduce the level oftoxic contents. However, no significant results have been obtained so far.

• Rapeseed is the most widely grown variety of oilseeds in the EU. It is projected that the total area harvested underrapeseed would further grow from 2.8 mha in 1995/96 to about 3 mha by 2005/06 with an associated growth in its rape oilexports to nearly 1 mmt by the end of the period.

• Japan is the largest importer of rapeseed, primarily the canola variety from Canada. Its imports of rapeseed are projectedto continue rising steadily to reach 1.89 mmt by 2005/06.

Rapeseed Complex / 123

Rapeseed Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Canada 2,687 2,517 2,632 2,852 3,009 3,121 3,177 3,284 3,382 3,447 3,540 China 7 -100 -86 -96 -106 -116 -126 -136 -146 -156 -166


Net Importers European Union 656 137 471 671 776 769 816 833 874 877 916 India 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Japan 1,840 1,745 1,802 1,804 1,814 1,819 1,836 1,845 1,859 1,875 1,892 Rest of World 198 534 273 281 313 416 399 470 502 539 566 Residual 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Prices Cash Vancouver 314.48 332.54 325.76 307.41 304.33 319.37 319.65 334.24 342.34 351.39 356.69 CIF Hamburg 296.00 302.08 298.72 282.14 279.35 292.94 293.20 306.39 313.72 321.90 326.69

Rapeseed Meal Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Canada 1,150 1,259 1,455 1,484 1,513 1,559 1,598 1,597 1,641 1,685 1,729 China 307 300 297 269 241 215 211 218 243 287 348 India 995 900 873 939 968 989 1,028 1,071 1,127 1,197 1,279


Net Importers European Union 777 862 969 909 874 909 932 972 1,023 1,090 1,139 Japan 204 200 211 227 232 237 236 242 244 244 243 Rest of World 1,257 1,386 1,445 1,555 1,616 1,617 1,669 1,673 1,744 1,834 1,974 Residual 214 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Price (Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB Hamburg 180.00 187.33 155.78 150.20 151.68 154.54 155.72 154.98 155.52 156.58 158.54

(Dollars per Metric Ton)


Rapeseed Oil Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Canada 344 584 731 744 755 777 799 791 813 828 843 European Union 816 669 703 670 739 782 820 870 889 907 932


Net Importers China 184 250 356 455 537 596 649 685 718 736 763 India 40 40 46 26 30 42 47 51 49 39 23 Japan 10 10 9 15 18 22 22 24 25 24 23 Rest of World 978 956 1,024 917 909 899 902 901 910 935 965 Residual -52 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Price (Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB Rotterdam 566.00 556.92 503.06 456.81 443.14 459.50 476.00 510.66 543.25 586.50 627.84


World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rapeseed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 24,136 21,261 22,965 23,557 23,957 24,217 24,678 25,052 25,645 26,312 27,098

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 34,586 29,685 31,810 32,750 33,518 34,130 35,036 35,857 36,938 38,132 39,506 Crush 30,209 27,903 28,830 29,633 30,290 30,839 31,601 32,348 33,277 34,314 35,532 Other Use 3,246 2,949 2,996 3,063 3,191 3,290 3,411 3,509 3,654 3,812 3,963 Trade /a 2,694 2,417 2,546 2,756 2,903 3,005 3,051 3,148 3,236 3,291 3,374

Rapeseed Meal Production 18,322 16,982 17,521 17,944 18,285 18,557 18,893 19,188 19,538 19,904 20,325 Consumption 18,032 17,173 17,519 17,943 18,283 18,552 18,885 19,176 19,523 19,886 20,305 Trade /a 2,452 2,459 2,625 2,691 2,722 2,762 2,838 2,887 3,011 3,168 3,356

Rapeseed Oil Production 11,124 10,286 10,606 10,884 11,116 11,304 11,529 11,724 11,952 12,185 12,451 Consumption 10,930 10,350 10,682 10,854 11,099 11,306 11,532 11,739 11,963 12,200 12,463 Per Capita (kg) 1.91 1.78 1.81 1.81 1.83 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.89 Trade /a 1,160 1,253 1,435 1,413 1,494 1,559 1,619 1,661 1,702 1,735 1,774


Canadian Canola Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Canola (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 5,273 3,480 4,628 4,931 5,082 5,201 5,299 5,351 5,471 5,561 5,676


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 6,436 5,040 6,290 6,606 6,807 6,989 7,152 7,256 7,451 7,606 7,797 Beginning Stocks 589 1,100 460 440 473 500 504 524 526 532 537 Total Supply 7,025 6,140 6,750 7,046 7,280 7,490 7,657 7,779 7,977 8,139 8,334 Crush 2,640 2,850 3,128 3,185 3,242 3,324 3,406 3,413 3,495 3,577 3,659 Other Use 485 470 550 536 528 540 550 555 568 577 589 Net Exports 2,687 2,517 2,632 2,852 3,009 3,121 3,177 3,284 3,382 3,447 3,540 Total Use 5,925 5,680 6,311 6,574 6,779 6,985 7,133 7,253 7,445 7,602 7,789 Ending Stocks 1,100 460 440 473 500 504 524 526 532 537 545

Canola Meal Production 1,505 1,625 1,826 1,859 1,892 1,940 1,988 1,992 2,040 2,088 2,135 Beginning Stocks 25 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 25 25 Total Supply 1,530 1,655 1,856 1,888 1,920 1,968 2,015 2,018 2,065 2,113 2,160 Domestic Use 350 366 372 376 380 382 390 395 399 403 407 Net Exports 1,150 1,259 1,455 1,484 1,513 1,559 1,598 1,597 1,641 1,685 1,729 Total Use 1,500 1,625 1,827 1,859 1,893 1,941 1,989 1,992 2,040 2,088 2,136 Ending Stocks 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 25 25 25 24

Canola Oil Production 1,109 1,200 1,301 1,324 1,347 1,380 1,413 1,415 1,448 1,481 1,514 Beginning Stocks 18 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Total Supply 1,127 1,230 1,331 1,352 1,374 1,407 1,440 1,443 1,475 1,508 1,541 Domestic Use 617 616 572 581 592 603 613 625 636 653 671 Net Exports 344 584 731 744 755 777 799 791 813 828 843 Total Use 961 1,200 1,304 1,325 1,347 1,380 1,412 1,415 1,448 1,481 1,514 Ending Stocks 30 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27



Chinese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 9,777 8,800 8,858 8,993 9,105 9,234 9,520 9,892 10,402 11,039 11,811 Total Supply 9,777 8,800 8,858 8,993 9,105 9,234 9,520 9,892 10,402 11,039 11,811 Crush 8,793 7,920 8,209 8,350 8,469 8,599 8,873 9,225 9,700 10,289 10,999 Other Use 977 880 735 740 743 751 773 804 849 907 978 Net Exports 7 -100 -86 -96 -106 -116 -126 -136 -146 -156 -166 Total Use 9,777 8,700 8,858 8,993 9,105 9,234 9,520 9,892 10,402 11,039 11,811 Change in Stocks 0 100 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rapeseed Meal Production 5,452 4,910 4,955 4,977 4,995 5,016 5,058 5,113 5,186 5,278 5,388 Total Supply 5,452 4,910 4,955 4,977 4,995 5,016 5,058 5,113 5,186 5,278 5,388 Domestic Use 5,145 4,610 4,659 4,708 4,755 4,801 4,847 4,894 4,943 4,991 5,040 Net Exports 307 300 297 269 241 215 211 218 243 287 348 Total Use 5,452 4,910 4,955 4,977 4,995 5,016 5,058 5,113 5,186 5,278 5,388 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rapeseed Oil Production 2,904 2,614 2,637 2,649 2,659 2,670 2,692 2,721 2,760 2,809 2,868 Net Imports 184 250 356 455 537 596 649 685 718 736 763 Total Supply 3,088 2,864 2,994 3,104 3,196 3,266 3,341 3,406 3,479 3,545 3,630 Domestic Use 3,088 2,864 2,994 3,104 3,196 3,266 3,341 3,406 3,479 3,545 3,630 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


European Union Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rapeseed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 2,841 2,114 2,172 2,224 2,271 2,318 2,364 2,411 2,438 2,467 2,497 Industrial Area Harvested 596 471 471 471 471 471 471 471 471 471 471 Total Area Harvested 3,437 2,585 2,643 2,695 2,742 2,789 2,835 2,882 2,909 2,938 2,968


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 8,297 6,945 7,189 7,411 7,623 7,836 8,052 8,271 8,437 8,609 8,786 Beginning Stocks 145 504 155 145 161 168 164 168 166 167 168 Net Imports 656 137 471 671 776 769 816 833 874 877 916 Total Supply 9,098 7,586 7,815 8,227 8,561 8,773 9,031 9,272 9,477 9,653 9,870 Crush 7,598 6,572 6,760 7,124 7,431 7,629 7,862 8,086 8,269 8,423 8,616 Other Use 996 859 910 943 962 981 1,001 1,021 1,041 1,062 1,083 Total Use 8,594 7,431 7,669 8,067 8,393 8,610 8,862 9,107 9,310 9,485 9,699 Ending Stocks 504 155 145 161 168 164 168 166 167 168 170

Rapeseed Meal Production 4,334 3,799 3,937 4,149 4,329 4,445 4,582 4,713 4,820 4,911 5,024 Beginning Stocks 212 278 147 153 155 155 156 156 157 158 159 Net Imports 777 862 969 909 874 909 932 972 1,023 1,090 1,139 Total Supply 5,323 4,939 5,053 5,212 5,358 5,509 5,670 5,841 6,001 6,159 6,322 Domestic Use 5,045 4,792 4,899 5,057 5,203 5,353 5,513 5,684 5,843 6,000 6,163 Ending Stocks 278 147 153 155 155 156 156 157 158 159 159

Rapeseed Oil Production 3,078 2,669 2,748 2,898 3,026 3,109 3,206 3,300 3,377 3,443 3,524 Beginning Stocks 123 207 160 84 114 132 130 127 113 103 89 Total Supply 3,201 2,876 2,908 2,982 3,140 3,241 3,336 3,427 3,491 3,546 3,613 Domestic Use 2,178 2,047 2,121 2,199 2,269 2,329 2,389 2,443 2,499 2,550 2,604 Net Exports 816 669 703 670 739 782 820 870 889 907 932 Total Use 2,994 2,716 2,824 2,868 3,008 3,111 3,209 3,314 3,388 3,457 3,535 Ending Stocks 207 160 84 114 132 130 127 113 103 89 78

Indian Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 6,208 5,985 6,125 6,315 6,508 6,627 6,779 6,903 7,071 7,256 7,445 Net Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 6,208 5,985 6,125 6,315 6,508 6,627 6,779 6,903 7,071 7,256 7,445 Crush 5,640 5,440 5,515 5,669 5,754 5,813 5,898 5,984 6,092 6,222 6,373 Other Use 560 560 610 646 754 814 881 919 980 1,033 1,072 Total Use 6,200 6,000 6,125 6,315 6,508 6,627 6,779 6,903 7,071 7,256 7,445 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rapeseed Meal Production 3,779 3,645 3,695 3,798 3,855 3,895 3,952 4,009 4,081 4,169 4,270 Total Supply 3,779 3,645 3,695 3,798 3,855 3,895 3,952 4,009 4,081 4,169 4,270 Domestic Use 2,784 2,745 2,822 2,859 2,887 2,906 2,923 2,938 2,955 2,972 2,990 Net Exports 995 900 873 939 968 989 1,028 1,071 1,127 1,197 1,279 Total Use 3,779 3,645 3,695 3,798 3,855 3,895 3,952 4,009 4,081 4,169 4,270 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rapeseed Oil Production 1,856 1,790 1,820 1,871 1,899 1,918 1,946 1,975 2,010 2,053 2,103 Net Imports 40 40 46 26 30 42 47 51 49 39 23 Total Supply 1,896 1,830 1,866 1,897 1,928 1,961 1,993 2,026 2,059 2,093 2,126 Domestic Use 1,896 1,830 1,866 1,897 1,928 1,961 1,993 2,026 2,059 2,093 2,126 Change in Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


Japanese Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Rapeseed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Beginning Stocks 154 150 160 166 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 Net Imports 1,840 1,745 1,802 1,804 1,814 1,819 1,836 1,845 1,859 1,875 1,892 Total Supply 1,996 1,897 1,964 1,972 1,982 1,989 2,005 2,015 2,028 2,044 2,061 Crush 1,840 1,730 1,792 1,799 1,809 1,816 1,832 1,841 1,855 1,871 1,888 Other Use 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Total Use 1,845 1,736 1,798 1,805 1,815 1,822 1,838 1,847 1,861 1,877 1,894 Ending Stocks 150 160 166 167 167 167 167 167 167 167 167

Rapeseed Meal Production 1,075 1,010 1,039 1,043 1,049 1,053 1,062 1,068 1,076 1,085 1,095 Beginning Stocks 35 26 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 Net Imports 204 200 211 227 232 237 236 242 244 244 243 Total Supply 1,314 1,236 1,274 1,295 1,307 1,315 1,324 1,336 1,346 1,356 1,365 Domestic Use 1,288 1,213 1,249 1,270 1,281 1,289 1,298 1,309 1,319 1,329 1,338 Ending Stocks 26 23 24 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27

Rapeseed Oil Production 754 709 753 756 760 763 769 773 779 786 793 Beginning Stocks 25 22 18 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 Net Imports 10 10 9 15 18 22 22 24 25 24 23 Total Supply 789 741 779 791 800 808 815 822 828 834 840 Domestic Use 767 723 759 769 777 784 791 797 804 810 816 Ending Stocks 22 18 20 22 24 24 25 24 24 24 23



Rest-of-World Rapeseed Sector Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 3,866 2,913 3,346 3,422 3,472 3,441 3,531 3,532 3,574 3,619 3,666 Beginning Stocks 81 224 106 114 118 121 122 123 123 123 124 Net Imports 198 534 273 281 313 416 399 470 502 539 566 Total Supply 4,145 3,671 3,725 3,817 3,904 3,978 4,052 4,125 4,199 4,282 4,355 Crush 3,698 3,391 3,425 3,507 3,584 3,658 3,730 3,798 3,866 3,932 3,997 Other Use 223 174 186 192 199 198 200 204 210 226 235 Total Use 3,921 3,565 3,611 3,699 3,783 3,856 3,929 4,002 4,076 4,158 4,232 Ending Stocks 224 106 114 118 121 122 123 123 123 124 124

Rapeseed Meal Production 2,177 1,993 2,068 2,117 2,164 2,209 2,252 2,293 2,334 2,374 2,413 Beginning Stocks 345 359 291 287 286 288 294 302 314 328 345 Net Imports 1,257 1,386 1,445 1,555 1,616 1,617 1,669 1,673 1,744 1,834 1,974 Total Supply 3,779 3,738 3,804 3,958 4,066 4,114 4,215 4,268 4,392 4,536 4,732 Domestic Use 3,420 3,447 3,518 3,672 3,777 3,820 3,913 3,955 4,064 4,191 4,368 Ending Stocks 359 291 287 286 288 294 302 314 328 345 365

Rapeseed Oil Production 1,423 1,304 1,346 1,386 1,426 1,464 1,502 1,540 1,577 1,613 1,650 Beginning Stocks 129 146 136 135 133 132 131 130 129 129 129 Net Imports 978 956 1,024 917 909 899 902 901 910 935 965 Total Supply 2,530 2,406 2,506 2,438 2,469 2,495 2,535 2,570 2,616 2,677 2,744 Domestic Use 2,384 2,270 2,371 2,305 2,337 2,365 2,405 2,441 2,487 2,548 2,615 Ending Stocks 146 136 135 133 132 131 130 129 129 129 129

World Sunflower Seed Complex

136 / Sunflower Seed Complex

Sunflower Seed and Products

• Argentina is by far the world’s largest exporter of sunflower seed, meal and oil, with the EU the largest importer ofsunflower seeds and meal. Russian imports of sunflower meal and oil are projected to continue their upward trend as theeconomy begins a positive growth path.

• Argentinean area under sunflowers responded negatively to the world seed prices in 1996/97 when the total area shrankfrom 3.2 mha in the previous year to about 2.7 mha. However, the area harvested is projected to recover to about 3.3 mhaby the end of the period as sunflower seed prices bounce back from a low of $276 per mt in 1999/2000. Another area forgrowth in the area planted under sunflower is the Rest of the World, which includes Eastern Europe and developingcountries like India.

• Sunflower oil consumption is on the increase as well. We expect total consumption to reach about 10.8 mmt by the end ofthe projection period. New markets are likely to emerge for sunflower oil, showing promise for extended growth in thissector. Countries like India and China hold the key to the ultimate outcome but consumption in both these countries issteadily rising.

Sunflower Seed Complex / 137

Sunflower Seed Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 800 600 657 806 823 965 1,028 1,108 1,133 1,214 1,273 China 40 40 44 46 41 43 43 46 47 46 49 Russia 0 665 639 619 604 592 583 577 572 568 565

Ukraine 300 -300 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180

Other FSU-15 138 110 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160

Rest of the World -158 134 182 24 147 144 235 235 265 248 251


Net Importers European Union 1,738 1,376 1,442 1,454 1,615 1,784 1,970 2,086 2,176 2,276 2,379 Residual -618 -127 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Rotterdam Sunflower Price 313.00 297.08 288.21 276.86 276.01 279.50 281.13 283.91 286.76 290.35 296.33

Sunflower Meal Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons)

Argentina 1,849 1,665 1,789 1,762 1,773 1,791 1,791 1,883 1,993 2,045 2,094 China 80 75 68 74 73 67 63 57 50 45 39 Ukraine 117 26 37 35 32 29 31 32 31 30 28 Other FSU-15 14 -20 -14 -10 -14 -18 -21 -24 -28 -32 -36


Net Importers

European Union 1,695 1,574 1,684 1,648 1,641 1,641 1,647 1,699 1,738 1,775 1,815 Russia 5 85 86 79 92 107 101 107 118 127 132 Rest of the World 165 109 109 133 130 121 116 142 189 186 178 Residual 195 -22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)

Rotterdam Sunflower Meal Price 151.00 153.75 136.93 132.69 133.81 135.99 136.88 136.32 136.73 137.53 139.02


Sunflower Oil Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 1,419 1,300 1,376 1,379 1,442 1,501 1,575 1,669 1,779 1,876 1,958 China 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 European Union 227 279 233 243 244 258 261 249 227 213 202 Ukraine 259 270 225 256 276 267 279 275 282 279 287


Net Importers Russia 255 180 261 216 232 226 226 238 251 268 286 Other FSU-15 -110 -27 15 -5 -11 -12 -19 -18 -24 -29 -37 Rest of the World 1,505 1,430 1,559 1,668 1,740 1,812 1,907 1,974 2,061 2,128 2,198 Residual 255 266 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Rotterdam Sunflower Oil Price 617.00 578.92 548.82 515.39 501.40 511.55 519.90 546.30 569.00 595.42 627.17


World Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflower Seed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 20,695 19,794 20,306 20,611 20,991 21,182 21,562 21,842 22,218 22,572 22,983

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 25,781 23,456 24,733 25,391 26,068 26,541 27,209 27,750 28,403 29,028 29,718 Crush 22,383 21,541 22,015 22,519 23,171 23,642 24,272 24,787 25,394 25,974 26,614 Other Use 2,325 2,322 2,329 2,436 2,491 2,521 2,583 2,634 2,705 2,775 2,851 Trade /a 1,120 1,249 1,742 1,729 1,865 2,009 2,170 2,261 2,326 2,401 2,479

Sunflower Meal Production 9,995 9,744 10,018 10,248 10,531 10,742 11,017 11,240 11,497 11,747 12,019 Consumption 9,711 9,767 10,042 10,241 10,531 10,743 11,016 11,238 11,496 11,747 12,019 Trade /a 2,060 1,746 1,879 1,860 1,863 1,869 1,863 1,948 2,046 2,087 2,125

Sunflower Oil Production 7,973 8,581 9,009 9,286 9,397 9,521 9,644 9,781 9,964 10,074 10,170 Consumption 8,501 8,524 8,776 9,039 9,329 9,569 9,814 10,060 10,309 10,561 10,813 Per Capita (kg) 1.48 1.46 1.49 1.51 1.53 1.55 1.57 1.59 1.61 1.62 1.64 Trade /a 1,905 1,849 1,834 1,879 1,962 2,027 2,115 2,193 2,288 2,368 2,447


Argentine Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


(Metric Tons per Hectare) Yield 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,600 5,000 5,653 5,608 5,798 6,070 6,381 6,684 7,003 7,331 7,671 Beginning Stocks 100 130 120 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 Total Supply 5,700 5,130 5,773 5,733 5,923 6,195 6,506 6,809 7,128 7,456 7,796 Crush 4,700 4,340 4,920 4,726 4,897 5,027 5,273 5,496 5,789 6,035 6,314 Other Use 70 70 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 Net Exports 800 600 657 806 823 965 1,028 1,108 1,133 1,214 1,273 Total Demand 5,570 5,010 5,653 5,608 5,798 6,070 6,381 6,684 7,003 7,331 7,671 Ending Stocks 130 120 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 Total Use 5,700 5,130 5,778 5,733 5,923 6,195 6,506 6,809 7,128 7,456 7,796

Sunflower Meal Production 1,974 1,795 2,019 1,930 1,990 2,032 2,121 2,199 2,305 2,390 2,488 Beginning Stocks 140 180 160 136 140 141 141 142 144 145 146 Total Supply 2,114 1,975 2,179 2,066 2,130 2,173 2,262 2,341 2,448 2,535 2,634 Domestic Use 85 150 254 164 216 241 329 314 311 344 393 Ending Stocks 180 160 136 140 141 141 142 144 145 146 147 Net Exports 1,849 1,665 1,789 1,762 1,773 1,791 1,791 1,883 1,993 2,045 2,094 Total Use 2,114 1,975 2,179 2,066 2,130 2,173 2,262 2,341 2,448 2,535 2,634

Sunflower Oil Production 1,836 1,695 2,093 2,080 1,993 1,979 1,944 1,963 2,015 1,988 1,932 Beginning Stocks 130 149 114 339 341 343 345 347 349 351 353 Total Supply 1,966 1,844 2,207 2,419 2,334 2,322 2,289 2,309 2,364 2,338 2,284 Domestic Use 398 430 492 506 520 534 548 562 577 592 607 Net Exports 1,419 1,300 1,376 1,379 1,442 1,501 1,575 1,669 1,779 1,876 1,958 Total Demand 1,817 1,730 1,868 1,885 1,962 2,035 2,123 2,231 2,356 2,467 2,564 Ending Stocks 149 114 339 341 343 345 347 349 351 353 355 Total Use 1,966 1,844 2,207 2,226 2,304 2,380 2,470 2,580 2,707 2,820 2,919


Chinese Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflower Seed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 813 800 788 824 829 836 847 858 872 888 905


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,270 1,360 1,371 1,448 1,472 1,498 1,532 1,568 1,608 1,650 1,696 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,270 1,360 1,371 1,448 1,472 1,498 1,532 1,568 1,608 1,650 1,696 Crush 808 889 893 945 987 1,022 1,057 1,088 1,116 1,142 1,166 Feed/Seed Use 72 69 70 73 75 77 79 80 81 82 82 Food Use 350 362 363 384 368 356 354 353 363 381 399 Net Exports 40 40 44 46 41 43 43 46 47 46 49 Total Demand 1,270 1,360 1,371 1,448 1,472 1,498 1,532 1,568 1,608 1,650 1,696 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,270 1,360 1,371 1,448 1,472 1,498 1,532 1,568 1,608 1,650 1,696

Sunflower Meal Production 470 517 518 548 572 593 613 631 647 663 676 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 470 517 518 548 572 593 613 631 647 663 676 Feed Use 311 363 373 397 421 445 468 490 512 531 549 Industrial Use 79 79 77 78 79 81 82 84 85 87 89 Net Exports 80 75 68 74 73 67 63 57 50 45 39 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 470 517 518 548 572 593 613 631 647 663 676

Sunflower Oil Production 177 195 197 208 217 225 232 239 246 251 257 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 177 195 197 208 217 225 232 239 246 251 257 Domestic Use 177 195 197 208 217 225 232 239 246 251 257 Net Exports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Demand 177 195 197 208 217 225 232 239 246 251 257 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 177 195 197 208 217 225 232 239 246 251 257



European Union Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflower Seed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 2,378 2,258 2,206 2,306 2,259 2,212 2,166 2,119 2,092 2,063 2,033 Industrial Area Harvested 97 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 Total Area Harvested 2,475 2,335 2,282 2,383 2,335 2,289 2,243 2,196 2,168 2,139 2,109


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 3,234 3,969 3,896 4,077 4,002 3,921 3,835 3,743 3,679 3,608 3,530 Beginning Stocks 441 275 312 306 316 316 313 312 309 307 304 Net Imports 1,738 1,376 1,442 1,454 1,615 1,784 1,970 2,086 2,176 2,276 2,379 Total Supply 5,413 5,620 5,650 5,838 5,933 6,022 6,118 6,141 6,165 6,190 6,212 Crush 4,847 4,933 4,965 5,127 5,212 5,298 5,388 5,408 5,427 5,450 5,474 Other Use 291 375 379 395 405 410 418 424 431 436 439 Total Demand 5,138 5,308 5,344 5,522 5,616 5,708 5,806 5,832 5,858 5,886 5,913 Ending Stocks 275 312 306 316 316 313 312 309 307 304 300 Total Use 5,413 5,620 5,650 5,838 5,933 6,022 6,118 6,141 6,165 6,190 6,212

Sunflower Meal Production 2,527 2,543 2,641 2,728 2,774 2,820 2,869 2,879 2,890 2,903 2,916 Beginning Stocks 143 162 156 159 161 161 159 159 159 159 158 Net Imports 1,695 1,574 1,684 1,648 1,641 1,641 1,647 1,699 1,738 1,775 1,815 Total Supply 4,365 4,279 4,482 4,535 4,576 4,622 4,674 4,737 4,788 4,837 4,889 Domestic Use 4,203 4,123 4,323 4,373 4,416 4,463 4,516 4,578 4,629 4,678 4,731 Ending Stocks 162 156 159 161 161 159 159 159 159 158 158 Total Use 4,365 4,279 4,482 4,535 4,576 4,622 4,674 4,737 4,788 4,837 4,889

Sunflower Oil Production 2,038 2,078 2,093 2,164 2,202 2,241 2,283 2,294 2,307 2,320 2,334 Beginning Stocks 268 242 213 219 236 244 238 234 221 211 200 Total Supply 2,306 2,320 2,306 2,383 2,438 2,485 2,521 2,528 2,527 2,531 2,535 Domestic Use 1,837 1,828 1,854 1,904 1,950 1,989 2,027 2,058 2,090 2,117 2,143 Net Exports 227 279 233 243 244 258 261 249 227 213 202 Total Demand 2,064 2,107 2,087 2,147 2,194 2,247 2,287 2,307 2,316 2,330 2,345 Ending Stocks 242 213 219 236 244 238 234 221 211 200 190 Total Use 2,306 2,320 2,306 2,383 2,438 2,485 2,521 2,528 2,527 2,531 2,535

Russian Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,182 2,500 2,885 3,127 3,285 3,379 3,464 3,526 3,586 3,638 3,691 Beginning Stocks (229) 515 250 256 263 269 276 283 290 297 305 Total Supply 3,953 3,015 3,135 3,383 3,547 3,649 3,740 3,809 3,876 3,935 3,996 Crush 2,400 1,800 1,938 2,191 2,353 2,446 2,524 2,575 2,623 2,661 2,698 Other Use 890 150 154 162 173 187 202 218 236 254 273 Exports 0 665 639 619 604 592 583 577 572 568 565 Total Demand 3,290 2,765 2,879 3,120 3,278 3,373 3,457 3,519 3,579 3,631 3,684 Ending Stocks 663 250 256 263 269 276 283 290 297 305 312 Total Use 3,953 150 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148

Sunflower Meal Production 900 684 736 833 894 929 959 979 997 1,011 1,025 Net Imports 5 85 86 79 92 107 101 107 118 127 132 Total Supply 905 769 822 912 986 1,036 1,060 1,086 1,115 1,138 1,157 Domestic Use 890 741 822 912 986 1,036 1,060 1,086 1,115 1,138 1,157 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 890 741 822 912 986 1,036 1,060 1,086 1,115 1,138 1,157

Sunflower Oil Production 960 720 775 876 941 978 1,010 1,030 1,049 1,064 1,079 Beginning Stocks 41 220 110 113 116 118 121 124 128 131 134 Net Imports 255 180 261 216 232 226 226 238 251 268 286 Total Supply 1,256 1,120 1,146 1,205 1,289 1,323 1,357 1,392 1,427 1,463 1,499 Domestic Use 1,036 1,010 1,033 1,089 1,171 1,202 1,233 1,265 1,297 1,329 1,362 Ending Stocks 220 110 113 116 118 121 124 128 131 134 137 Total Use 1,256 1,120 1,146 1,205 1,289 1,323 1,357 1,392 1,427 1,463 1,499



Ukrainian Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,850 2,000 2,290 2,408 2,492 2,485 2,548 2,563 2,610 2,630 2,683 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 2,850 2,000 2,290 2,408 2,492 2,485 2,548 2,563 2,610 2,630 2,683 Crush 2,400 2,250 2,095 2,174 2,231 2,223 2,265 2,273 2,304 2,315 2,350 Other Use 150 50 95 123 141 132 143 140 147 145 153 Exports 300 -300 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Total Demand 2,850 2,000 2,290 2,408 2,492 2,485 2,548 2,563 2,610 2,630 2,683 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 2,850 2,000 2,290 2,408 2,492 2,485 2,548 2,563 2,610 2,630 2,683

Sunflower Meal Production 875 855 796 826 848 845 861 864 875 880 893 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 875 855 796 826 848 845 861 864 875 880 893 Domestic Use 758 829 759 791 816 816 830 832 844 850 865 Exports 117 26 37 35 32 29 31 32 31 30 28 Total Demand 875 855 796 826 848 845 861 864 875 880 893 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 875 855 796 826 848 845 861 864 875 880 893

Sunflower Oil Production 1,008 945 922 957 981 978 997 1,000 1,014 1,019 1,034 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Total Supply 1,058 995 972 1,007 1,031 1,028 1,047 1,050 1,064 1,069 1,084 Domestic Use 749 675 696 700 706 711 718 725 732 739 747 Exports 259 270 225 256 276 267 279 275 282 279 287 Total Demand 1,058 995 972 1,007 1,031 1,028 1,047 1,050 1,064 1,069 1,084 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,058 995 972 1,007 1,031 1,028 1,047 1,050 1,064 1,069 1,084


Other FSU-15 Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Sunflower Seed (1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 458 473 467 509 526 535 549 553 565 576 590


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 330 312 314 348 367 380 398 409 426 442 462 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 330 312 314 348 367 380 398 409 426 442 462 Crush 143 159 146 173 186 192 204 208 218 227 242 Other Use 49 43 47 50 51 53 54 56 58 60 60 Exports 138 110 120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160 Total Demand 330 312 314 348 367 380 398 409 426 442 462 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 330 312 314 348 367 380 398 409 426 442 462

Sunflower Meal Production 53 59 56 66 71 73 78 79 83 87 92 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Imports -14 20 14 10 14 18 21 24 28 32 36 Total Supply 39 79 70 76 85 92 99 103 111 119 128 Domestic Use 39 79 70 76 85 92 99 103 111 119 128 Exports 14 -20 -14 -10 -14 -18 -21 -24 -28 -32 -36 Total Demand 39 79 70 76 85 92 99 103 111 119 128 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 39 79 70 76 85 92 99 103 111 119 128

Sunflower Oil Production 190 153 119 141 151 156 166 170 178 185 197 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Imports -110 -27 15 -5 -11 -12 -19 -18 -24 -29 -37 Total Supply 80 126 134 136 140 145 147 151 154 157 160 Domestic Use 80 126 134 136 140 145 147 151 154 157 160 Total Demand 80 126 134 136 140 145 147 151 154 157 160 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 80 126 134 136 140 145 147 151 154 157 160


Rest-of-World Sunflower Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 8,297 8,315 8,326 8,376 8,653 8,806 9,050 9,257 9,491 9,729 9,986 Beginning Stocks 317 544 352 293 291 290 291 292 292 293 294 Total Supply 8,614 8,859 8,678 8,670 8,944 9,096 9,342 9,549 9,783 10,021 10,279 Crush 7,085 7,170 7,057 7,183 7,307 7,434 7,560 7,740 7,917 8,144 8,370 Other Use 1,143 1,203 1,145 1,172 1,200 1,227 1,254 1,282 1,309 1,336 1,363 Exports -158 134 182 24 147 144 235 235 265 248 251 Total Demand 8,070 8,507 8,385 8,379 8,654 8,805 9,050 9,256 9,490 9,728 9,984 Ending Stocks 544 352 293 291 290 291 292 292 293 294 295 Total Use 8,614 8,859 8,678 8,670 8,944 9,096 9,342 9,549 9,783 10,021 10,279

Sunflower Meal Production 3,196 3,291 3,250 3,317 3,383 3,450 3,517 3,609 3,700 3,815 3,929 Beginning Stocks 42 44 48 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Imports 165 109 109 133 130 121 116 142 189 186 178 Total Supply 3,403 3,444 3,408 3,494 3,557 3,615 3,677 3,795 3,934 4,044 4,151 Domestic Use 3,346 3,403 3,364 3,450 3,513 3,571 3,633 3,751 3,889 4,000 4,107 Total Demand 3,346 3,403 3,364 3,450 3,513 3,571 3,633 3,751 3,889 4,000 4,107 Ending Stocks 44 48 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 Total Use 3,390 3,451 3,408 3,494 3,557 3,615 3,677 3,795 3,934 4,044 4,151

Sunflower Oil Production 2,772 2,795 2,811 2,861 2,911 2,962 3,013 3,085 3,156 3,247 3,337 Beginning Stocks 249 302 267 266 300 326 336 347 346 348 348 Imports 1,505 1,430 1,559 1,668 1,740 1,812 1,907 1,974 2,061 2,128 2,198 Total Supply 4,526 4,527 4,637 4,796 4,952 5,100 5,256 5,406 5,563 5,723 5,883 Domestic Use 4,224 4,260 4,371 4,495 4,626 4,764 4,909 5,059 5,215 5,376 5,539 Total Demand 4,224 4,260 4,371 4,495 4,626 4,764 4,909 5,059 5,215 5,376 5,539 Ending Stocks 302 267 266 300 326 336 347 346 348 348 344 Total Use 4,526 4,527 4,637 4,796 4,952 5,100 5,256 5,406 5,563 5,723 5,883

World Palm Oil Complex

150 / Palm Oil Complex

Palm Oil

• Malaysia and Indonesia are the major producers of palm oil and related products, accounting for more than 75 percent ofthe total production. Among the major importing countries are China, EU, and India. We project a steady increase inpalm oil production for Malaysia and Indonesia from about 16 mmt at present to more than 22 mmt by 2005/06. Palm oilconsumption is expected to drive this surge, mainly from countries like China, whose palm oil imports are projected toreach 2.1 mmt by the end of the period.

• The EU accounts for almost all of the world trade in palm kernel meal and is expected to import nearly 1 mmt more mealby the end of the period. Its imports of palm oil are expected to increase by about 400 tmt by 2005/06.

• While planting of palm trees is on the rise in traditional producers such as Malaysia and Indonesia, the palm oil marketwill also be affected by the increased emphasis on palm production in countries such as India.

Palm Oil Complex / 151

World Palm Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm OilNet Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Malaysia 6,650 7,100 7,039 7,047 7,177 7,248 7,466 7,671 7,849 8,047 8,213 Indonesia 1,990 2,090 2,263 2,513 2,704 2,928 3,011 3,087 3,198 3,286 3,413


Net Importers China 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113 European Union 1,600 1,618 1,622 1,672 1,729 1,786 1,842 1,892 1,943 1,991 2,042 Rest of World 5,945 6,174 6,155 6,280 6,463 6,631 6,801 6,967 7,135 7,303 7,472 Residual 289 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Rotterdam Palm Oil Price 628.00 530.25 462.70 430.06 416.55 426.34 434.42 460.22 482.67 509.08 541.24

Palm Kernel OilNet Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Malaysia 400 340 347 318 257 245 207 206 190 186 185 Indonesia 310 330 362 390 423 459 489 497 515 549 584

Total Net Exports 710 670 708 708 680 704 695 703 705 736 769

Net Importers European Union 278 307 293 287 283 280 277 274 271 269 266 Rest of World 299 328 415 421 397 424 419 429 434 467 503 Residual 133 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Net Imports 710 670 708 708 680 704 695 703 705 736 769

(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Rotterdam Kernel Oil Price 677.00 705.00 717.81 674.45 656.62 669.54 680.23 714.51 744.51 780.01 823.49

Palm Kernel MealNet Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Malaysia 1,332 1,360 1,399 1,485 1,520 1,592 1,638 1,705 1,761 1,828 1,899 Indonesia 500 533 530 609 660 707 742 748 763 795 823 Rest of World 141 140 149 141 143 149 152 155 160 165 172


Net Importers European Union 1,913 1,998 2,078 2,235 2,324 2,447 2,532 2,608 2,684 2,788 2,894 Residual 60 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Rotterdam Kernel Meal Price 137.00 134.58 132.54 127.66 128.96 131.46 132.49 131.84 132.31 133.24 134.95

World Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 15,636 16,369 16,632 17,547 18,232 19,024 19,707 20,246 20,858 21,649 22,456 Consumption 15,094 16,375 16,584 17,544 18,226 19,010 19,698 20,233 20,845 21,636 22,440 Per Capita (kg) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Trade /a 8,640 9,190 9,302 9,560 9,881 10,176 10,477 10,758 11,046 11,334 11,626

Palm Kernel Meal Production 2,501 2,612 2,673 2,844 2,945 3,081 3,185 3,286 3,389 3,524 3,656 Consumption 2,444 2,557 2,661 2,839 2,942 3,078 3,182 3,282 3,385 3,520 3,653 Trade /a 1,973 2,033 2,078 2,235 2,324 2,447 2,532 2,608 2,684 2,788 2,894

Palm Kernel Oil Production 2,097 2,188 2,258 2,401 2,486 2,601 2,689 2,775 2,862 2,977 3,090 Consumption 1,988 2,144 2,250 2,398 2,483 2,597 2,686 2,771 2,858 2,973 3,086 Per Capita (kg) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trade /a 710 670 708 708 680 704 695 703 705 736 769



Chinese Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Net Imports 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113 Domestic Use 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113 Total Demand 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 806 1,400 1,525 1,608 1,689 1,759 1,834 1,899 1,969 2,039 2,113

European Union Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Net Imports 1,600 1,618 1,622 1,672 1,729 1,786 1,842 1,892 1,943 1,991 2,042 Beginning Stocks 126 115 115 116 117 118 119 119 120 121 121 Total Supply 1,726 1,733 1,737 1,787 1,846 1,904 1,960 2,011 2,063 2,112 2,163 Domestic Use 1,611 1,618 1,621 1,671 1,729 1,785 1,841 1,891 1,942 1,991 2,041 Total Demand 1,611 1,618 1,621 1,671 1,729 1,785 1,841 1,891 1,942 1,991 2,041 Ending Stocks 115 115 116 117 118 119 119 120 121 121 122 Total Use 1,726 1,733 1,737 1,787 1,846 1,904 1,960 2,011 2,063 2,112 2,163

Palm Kernel Oil Production 19 19 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 13 Net Imports 278 307 293 287 283 280 277 274 271 269 266 Beginning Stocks 29 10 13 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 Total Supply 326 336 323 314 308 303 300 297 295 293 292 Domestic Use 316 323 313 305 300 295 291 288 284 281 278 Total Demand 316 323 313 305 300 295 291 288 284 281 278 Ending Stocks 10 13 10 9 8 8 9 10 11 12 14 Total Use 326 336 323 314 308 303 300 297 295 293 292

Palm Kernel Meal Production 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 Net Imports 1,913 1,998 2,078 2,235 2,324 2,447 2,532 2,608 2,684 2,788 2,894 Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Supply 1,926 2,011 2,090 2,246 2,334 2,457 2,542 2,618 2,693 2,796 2,902 Domestic Use 1,926 2,011 2,090 2,246 2,334 2,457 2,542 2,618 2,693 2,796 2,902 Total Demand 1,926 2,011 2,090 2,246 2,334 2,457 2,542 2,618 2,693 2,796 2,902 Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Use 1,926 2,011 2,090 2,246 2,334 2,457 2,542 2,618 2,693 2,796 2,902


Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,450 4,750 4,917 5,409 5,816 6,174 6,499 6,630 6,852 7,207 7,564 Beginning Stocks 94 84 94 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 77 Total Supply 4,544 4,834 5,011 5,473 5,882 6,242 6,570 6,702 6,926 7,282 7,641 Domestic Use 2,470 2,650 2,684 2,893 3,110 3,244 3,486 3,542 3,653 3,919 4,149 Net Exports 1,990 2,090 2,263 2,513 2,704 2,928 3,011 3,087 3,198 3,286 3,413 Total Demand 4,460 4,740 4,947 5,406 5,814 6,172 6,497 6,629 6,850 7,205 7,562 Ending Stocks 84 94 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 77 79 Total Use 4,544 4,834 5,011 5,473 5,882 6,242 6,570 6,702 6,926 7,282 7,641

Palm Kernel Oil Production 515 546 559 626 675 720 759 776 803 846 888 Beginning Stocks 22 27 23 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 Total Supply 537 573 582 651 701 748 788 806 833 877 921 Domestic Use 200 220 195 235 250 260 270 278 287 295 304 Net Exports 310 330 362 390 423 459 489 497 515 549 584 Total Demand 510 550 557 625 674 719 758 775 802 845 887 Ending Stocks 27 23 26 27 28 29 30 30 31 32 33 Total Use 537 573 582 651 701 748 788 806 833 877 921

Palm Kernel Meal Production 605 643 661 739 797 851 897 917 949 999 1,050 Beginning Stocks 55 65 65 77 80 84 88 92 96 99 103 Total Supply 660 708 726 816 878 935 985 1,009 1,044 1,099 1,153 Domestic Use 95 110 119 127 133 141 151 165 182 201 223 Net Exports 500 533 530 609 660 707 742 748 763 795 823 Total Demand 595 643 650 736 793 848 894 914 945 996 1,046 Ending Stocks 65 65 77 80 84 88 92 96 99 103 107 Total Use 660 708 726 816 878 935 985 1,009 1,044 1,099 1,153


Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 8,260 8,600 8,598 8,939 9,147 9,529 9,834 10,203 10,551 10,950 11,365 Beginning Stocks 646 917 917 954 963 965 973 975 979 983 988 Total Supply 8,906 9,517 9,515 9,893 10,110 10,494 10,806 11,178 11,530 11,933 12,353 Domestic Use 1,339 1,500 1,522 1,883 1,968 2,273 2,366 2,528 2,698 2,898 3,145 Net Exports 6,650 7,100 7,039 7,047 7,177 7,248 7,466 7,671 7,849 8,047 8,213 Total Demand 7,989 8,600 8,561 8,930 9,145 9,522 9,832 10,199 10,547 10,945 11,359 Ending Stocks 917 917 954 963 965 973 975 979 983 988 994 Total Use 8,906 9,517 9,515 9,893 10,110 10,494 10,806 11,178 11,530 11,933 12,353

Palm Kernel Oil Production 1,099 1,152 1,194 1,267 1,296 1,356 1,397 1,455 1,506 1,567 1,626 Beginning Stocks 80 85 90 94 98 101 104 106 109 111 112 Total Supply 1,179 1,237 1,284 1,361 1,394 1,457 1,501 1,562 1,614 1,678 1,739 Domestic Use 694 807 844 945 1,036 1,109 1,188 1,247 1,314 1,379 1,439 Net Exports 400 340 347 318 257 245 207 206 190 186 185 Total Demand 1,094 1,147 1,190 1,263 1,293 1,354 1,395 1,453 1,504 1,565 1,625 Ending Stocks 85 90 94 98 101 104 106 109 111 112 114 Total Use 1,179 1,237 1,284 1,361 1,394 1,457 1,501 1,562 1,614 1,678 1,739

Palm Kernel Meal Production 1,370 1,435 1,454 1,542 1,578 1,651 1,699 1,769 1,829 1,901 1,971 Beginning Stocks 167 155 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 Total Supply 1,537 1,590 1,629 1,717 1,753 1,826 1,874 1,944 2,004 2,076 2,146 Domestic Use 50 55 55 57 58 59 61 64 68 73 73 Net Exports 1,332 1,360 1,399 1,485 1,520 1,592 1,638 1,705 1,761 1,828 1,899 Total Demand 1,382 1,415 1,454 1,542 1,578 1,651 1,699 1,769 1,829 1,901 1,971 Ending Stocks 155 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 Total Use 1,537 1,590 1,629 1,717 1,753 1,826 1,874 1,944 2,004 2,076 2,146



Rest-of-World Palm Oil Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Palm Oil (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,926 3,019 3,118 3,200 3,269 3,321 3,374 3,413 3,454 3,493 3,527 Net Imports 5,945 6,174 6,155 6,280 6,463 6,631 6,801 6,967 7,135 7,303 7,472 Beginning Stocks 482 485 471 511 502 504 508 512 518 524 530 Total Supply 9,353 9,678 9,743 9,991 10,235 10,457 10,683 10,892 11,107 11,320 11,529 Domestic Use 8,868 9,207 9,232 9,489 9,731 9,949 10,171 10,374 10,583 10,789 10,992 Total Demand 8,868 9,207 9,232 9,489 9,731 9,949 10,171 10,374 10,583 10,789 10,992 Ending Stocks 485 471 511 502 504 508 512 518 524 530 538 Total Use 9,353 9,678 9,743 9,991 10,235 10,457 10,683 10,892 11,107 11,320 11,529

Palm Kernel Oil Production 464 471 487 492 499 509 518 529 540 551 562 Net Imports 299 328 415 421 397 424 419 429 434 467 503 Beginning Stocks 36 21 26 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Total Supply 799 820 928 943 927 963 967 988 1,003 1,047 1,094 Domestic Use 778 794 898 913 897 933 937 958 973 1,017 1,065 Total Demand 778 794 898 913 897 933 937 958 973 1,017 1,065 Ending Stocks 21 26 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Total Use 799 820 928 943 927 963 967 988 1,003 1,047 1,094

Palm Kernel Meal Production 513 521 546 552 559 569 579 591 603 614 627 Beginning Stocks 30 29 29 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 Total Supply 543 550 575 581 590 600 609 621 632 644 657 Domestic Use 373 381 397 409 416 421 428 436 443 450 455 Net Exports 141 140 149 141 143 149 152 155 160 165 172 Total Demand 514 521 545 550 559 570 579 591 603 615 627 Ending Stocks 29 29 30 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 29 Total Use 543 550 575 581 590 600 609 621 632 644 657

160 / Rice

World Rice

• World rice area is expected to increase by 1 mha over the next 10 years. Production, which grows mostly through yieldgrowth, is likely to keep pace with consumption in the first five years, but consumption is expected to outpace productionin the later period. Additional production in the first five years puts downward pressure on price by driving the Thai 100percent rice price from $360 per mt in 1996 to $305 per mt in 1999/00. But after 1999/00, the Thai price steadilyincreases and reaches $340 per mt by 2005/06. Unlike wheat and coarse grains, no significant changes in rice trade areprojected.

• A modest decline in area and yield in Thailand resulted in a 200 tmt decrease in rice production in 1996/97. Even withlower production, exports and carryover stocks increased in 1996 because of stagnant domestic consumption. During theprojection period, rice production increases slowly through yield growth, even with declining area. Declining per capitaconsumption leads to trade growth of 1.1 mmt per year from 1996/97 to 2005/06.

• Vietnam has come a long way in rice trade, from being an importer of rice until 1987 to the second largest exporter in1996. Production will increase primarily through yield increases in the next 10 years. Unlike many other Asian countries,per capita consumption of rice is expected to rise slowly. As consumption increases, export growth will be limited, butVietnam is still projected to keep its ranking as the world’s second largest rice exporter by the end of the projection period.

• Although Indian rice production increased by slightly more than 1.5 mmt in 1996, domestic consumption accounted formost of the increase in production, leading to a 1 mmt reduction in exports. Currently the third largest exporter, India isexpected to fall to fourth place in 1997/98 but is expected to return to its third place after 1999 by surpassing the UnitedStates.

• Increased production has enabled Pakistan to maintain relatively high levels of rice exports again in 1996/97. Slow areaand yield growth in the future are projected to be sufficient for small increases in domestic use while maintaining exportsof approximately 1.1 mmt per year.

• Despite a 3 mmt increase in rice production in 1996/97, China still finds itself in a net import position, even higher thanits 1995/96 level. Future area expansion is likely to be marginal, but slowly declining per capita consumption will allowChina to reduce its net imports by 2005/06.

• Myanmar’s 1996/97 rice production was slightly higher than its 1995/96 level because of higher yields. Production isprojected to increase by 2 mmt over the next 10 years, both through additional area and yield growth. Even with increas-ing per capita consumption, production growth is slightly faster than consumption increases, allowing exports to increasefrom 500 tmt in 1996/97 to 1.2 mmt in 2005/06.

• High levels of domestic consumption in Indonesia have kept this country from achieving self-sufficiency in rice in1996/97. Even with an additional 700 thousand ha of rice area in the next 10 years, Indonesia is not projected to supplyall of its domestic rice requirements during that time.

• Countries such as Japan and South Korea, and the EU, have entered a period when rice imports are set according toGATT commitments. By 2000/01, Japan must import 758 tmt of rice and the EU must import 572 tmt. This is not asignificant increase for the EU, but is a substantial increase for Japan, particularly because this signals a major change inrice policy.

Rice / 161

Rice Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) China -550 -750 -993 -821 -703 -488 -370 -166 -153 -143 -85 India 3,250 2,250 1,939 1,777 1,990 2,004 1,973 1,887 1,812 1,879 1,791 Myanmar (Burma) 300 500 613 701 771 840 904 965 1,040 1,118 1,228 Pakistan 1,400 1,400 1,265 1,304 1,456 1,283 1,256 1,162 1,146 1,096 1,105 Thailand 5,200 5,500 5,853 5,830 5,933 6,035 6,104 6,230 6,331 6,444 6,545 United States 2,451 2,171 2,228 2,022 1,929 1,806 1,731 1,636 1,545 1,479 1,444 Vietnam 3,000 2,500 2,424 2,330 2,243 2,232 2,214 2,193 2,157 2,164 2,168


Net Importers European Union 519 343 553 562 572 583 587 592 597 602 607 Indonesia 1,250 1,500 1,548 1,743 1,998 2,020 1,930 1,799 1,665 1,556 1,502 Japan 250 300 331 407 583 758 758 758 758 758 758 Saudi Arabia 615 700 746 781 817 851 887 923 934 945 956 Rest of World 11,900 10,533 10,023 9,520 9,620 9,569 9,719 9,904 9,993 10,246 10,442 Residual 517 195 130 130 30 -70 -70 -70 -70 -70 -70


Rice Prices (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) FOB Bangkok 100B NPQ /a 367.00 340.42 318.90 314.25 306.49 314.36 315.88 318.50 319.45 331.67 340.61 FOB Houston 431.25 440.59 408.36 405.58 399.71 409.99 413.81 418.86 422.23 437.35 449.27

a/ NPQ = Nominal Price Quote.

162 / Rice

Rice / 163

164 / Rice

World Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Beginning Stock 49,669 50,385 50,835 49,530 50,489 51,413 52,041 52,440 52,554 52,472 52,303Production 370,659 376,774 381,511 385,957 390,476 394,186 398,371 402,480 406,712 410,955 415,598Consumption 369,943 376,324 382,815 384,999 389,552 393,558 397,972 402,366 406,794 411,124 415,806Trade /a 15,051 13,571 13,330 13,142 13,619 13,712 13,812 13,907 13,878 14,038 14,197Ending Stocks 50,385 50,835 49,530 50,489 51,413 52,041 52,440 52,554 52,472 52,303 52,096



U.S. Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Hectares) Area Harvested 1,252 1,133 1,180 1,136 1,130 1,095 1,093 1,077 1,066 1,052 1,056


(1,000 Metric Tons) Production 7,888 7,773 8,068 7,849 7,857 7,690 7,718 7,661 7,629 7,583 7,645 Beginning Stocks 1,420 1,134 1,223 1,240 1,237 1,280 1,242 1,247 1,240 1,241 1,204 Imports 336 356 372 406 440 472 505 537 569 601 632 Total Supply 9,644 9,263 9,663 9,495 9,533 9,442 9,465 9,445 9,438 9,425 9,481 Food 3,493 3,568 3,670 3,759 3,851 3,939 4,029 4,116 4,204 4,287 4,373 Seed 172 166 166 165 160 160 157 156 154 154 154 Brewing 690 689 692 699 706 709 714 719 723 725 728 Residual 386 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 340 Domestic Use 4,741 4,764 4,868 4,964 5,057 5,148 5,240 5,330 5,421 5,507 5,596 Exports 3,766 3,275 3,556 3,295 3,196 3,052 2,978 2,874 2,777 2,714 2,695 Total Use 8,507 8,039 8,424 8,258 8,253 8,199 8,218 8,205 8,197 8,221 8,291 Ending Stocks 1,134 1,223 1,240 1,237 1,280 1,242 1,247 1,240 1,241 1,204 1,191

Rice / 165

Chinese Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 129,650 132,000 131,612 132,842 134,031 135,185 136,320 137,447 138,433 139,419 140,407Beginning Stocks 21,292 21,492 22,242 22,042 22,042 22,242 22,292 22,342 22,417 22,477 22,482Total Supply 150,942 153,492 153,854 154,884 156,073 157,427 158,612 159,789 160,850 161,896 162,889Domestic Use 130,000 132,000 132,804 133,663 134,534 135,624 136,640 137,538 138,527 139,557 140,442Net Exports -550 -750 -993 -821 -703 -488 -370 -166 -153 -143 -85Total Use 129,450 131,250 131,812 132,842 133,831 135,135 136,270 137,372 138,373 139,414 140,357Ending Stocks 21,492 22,242 22,042 22,042 22,242 22,292 22,342 22,417 22,477 22,482 22,532

Indian Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 79,460 81,000 82,129 83,522 84,939 85,737 86,580 87,394 88,415 89,549 90,750Beginning Stocks 14,083 12,083 11,333 11,443 12,190 12,947 13,480 13,802 13,913 13,888 13,911Total Supply 93,543 93,083 93,462 94,965 97,130 98,683 100,060 101,196 102,328 103,437 104,661Domestic Use 78,210 79,500 80,080 80,998 82,193 83,199 84,286 85,396 86,628 87,646 89,061Net Exports 3,250 2,250 1,939 1,777 1,990 2,004 1,973 1,887 1,812 1,879 1,791Total Use 81,460 81,750 82,019 82,775 84,183 85,203 86,258 87,283 88,440 89,526 90,852Ending Stocks 12,083 11,333 11,443 12,190 12,947 13,480 13,802 13,913 13,888 13,911 13,809

Myanmarian Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 10,000 10,440 10,627 10,895 11,135 11,369 11,611 11,856 12,105 12,358 12,660Beginning Stocks 622 722 862 941 991 1,022 1,041 1,054 1,061 1,066 1,069Total Supply 10,622 11,162 11,489 11,836 12,125 12,391 12,652 12,909 13,166 13,424 13,729Domestic Use 9,600 9,800 9,935 10,145 10,332 10,509 10,695 10,883 11,060 11,237 11,429Net Exports 300 500 613 701 771 840 904 965 1,040 1,118 1,228Total Use 9,900 10,300 10,548 10,846 11,104 11,350 11,599 11,848 12,100 12,355 12,658Ending Stocks 722 862 941 991 1,022 1,041 1,054 1,061 1,066 1,069 1,071

Pakistani Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 3,800 3,800 3,684 3,765 3,824 3,829 3,840 3,838 3,885 3,923 3,993Beginning Stocks 711 611 611 653 665 674 674 676 676 683 688Total Supply 4,511 4,411 4,295 4,418 4,489 4,503 4,514 4,514 4,560 4,606 4,682Domestic Use 2,500 2,400 2,377 2,449 2,359 2,545 2,582 2,676 2,731 2,822 2,878Net Exports 1,400 1,400 1,265 1,304 1,456 1,283 1,256 1,162 1,146 1,096 1,105Total Use 3,900 3,800 3,642 3,753 3,815 3,829 3,838 3,838 3,878 3,917 3,983Ending Stocks 611 611 653 665 674 674 676 676 683 688 699

166 / Rice

Thai Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 14,400 14,200 14,332 14,479 14,618 14,712 14,810 14,949 15,060 15,157 15,262Beginning Stocks 203 903 1,103 1,015 1,062 1,111 1,129 1,158 1,189 1,219 1,232Total Supply 14,603 15,103 15,435 15,494 15,680 15,822 15,939 16,108 16,249 16,376 16,494Domestic Use 8,500 8,500 8,567 8,603 8,636 8,658 8,676 8,689 8,699 8,700 8,699Net Exports 5,200 5,500 5,853 5,830 5,933 6,035 6,104 6,230 6,331 6,444 6,545Total Use 13,700 14,000 14,420 14,432 14,569 14,693 14,780 14,918 15,030 15,144 15,244Ending Stocks 903 1,103 1,015 1,062 1,111 1,129 1,158 1,189 1,219 1,232 1,251

Vietnamese Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 17,600 17,500 17,610 17,706 17,839 17,978 18,159 18,341 18,527 18,710 18,922Consumption 14,600 15,000 15,186 15,377 15,595 15,745 15,945 16,148 16,370 16,546 16,755Net Exports 3,000 2,500 2,424 2,330 2,243 2,232 2,214 2,193 2,157 2,164 2,168Total Use 17,600 17,500 17,610 17,706 17,839 17,978 18,159 18,341 18,527 18,710 18,922Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rice / 167

European Union Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Hectares)Area Harvested 357 405 406 404 401 399 398 397 395 394 392


(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 1,234 1,565 1,580 1,584 1,586 1,592 1,599 1,605 1,610 1,615 1,620Beginning Stocks 230 171 231 316 317 317 318 320 321 322 323Net Imports 519 343 553 562 572 583 587 592 597 602 607Total Supply 1,983 2,079 2,364 2,462 2,474 2,492 2,505 2,517 2,528 2,539 2,550Domestic Use 1,812 1,848 2,048 2,145 2,157 2,173 2,185 2,196 2,206 2,216 2,226Ending Stocks 171 231 316 317 317 318 320 321 322 323 324

Indonesian Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 32,700 33,500 33,934 34,333 34,700 35,228 35,891 36,577 37,264 37,891 38,470Beginning Stocks 1,858 2,558 2,558 2,400 2,294 2,274 2,279 2,310 2,347 2,384 2,415Net Imports 1,250 1,500 1,548 1,743 1,998 2,020 1,930 1,799 1,665 1,556 1,502Total Supply 35,808 37,558 38,040 38,476 38,991 39,522 40,100 40,686 41,277 41,830 42,387Domestic Use 33,250 35,000 35,640 36,182 36,717 37,243 37,790 38,338 38,893 39,416 39,953Ending Stocks 2,558 2,558 2,400 2,294 2,274 2,279 2,310 2,347 2,384 2,415 2,434

168 / Rice

Japanese Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 9,781 9,400 8,971 8,842 8,708 8,572 8,436 8,299 8,163 8,026 7,985Beginning Stocks 1,883 2,614 3,064 3,084 2,997 2,960 2,960 2,864 2,704 2,475 2,175Net Imports 250 300 331 407 583 758 758 758 758 758 758Total Supply 11,914 12,314 12,366 12,332 12,288 12,291 12,154 11,922 11,625 11,260 10,919Domestic Use 9,300 9,250 9,282 9,336 9,328 9,331 9,290 9,218 9,150 9,085 8,984Ending Stocks 2,614 3,064 3,084 2,997 2,960 2,960 2,864 2,704 2,475 2,175 1,934

Saudi Arabian Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Beginning Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Net Imports 615 700 746 781 817 851 887 923 934 945 956Total Supply 615 700 746 781 817 851 887 923 934 945 956Domestic Use 615 700 746 781 817 851 887 923 934 945 956Ending Stocks 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rice / 169

170 / Rice

Rest-of-World Rice Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 66,356 67,687 68,964 70,141 71,242 72,296 73,409 74,515 75,624 76,725 77,885Beginning Stocks 7,665 8,333 7,902 7,947 8,245 8,337 8,425 8,517 8,610 8,702 8,794Net Imports 11,900 10,533 10,023 9,520 9,620 9,569 9,719 9,904 9,993 10,246 10,442Total Supply 85,921 86,553 86,889 87,608 89,107 90,202 91,552 92,937 94,226 95,674 97,121Consumption 77,588 78,651 78,942 79,363 80,770 81,777 83,035 84,327 85,524 86,880 88,230Ending Stocks 8,333 7,902 7,947 8,245 8,337 8,425 8,517 8,610 8,702 8,794 8,890

Cotton

172 / Cotton

World Cotton

• Net cotton trade fell to 4.46 mmt in 1996/97 due primarily to reduced imports by China and lower exports out ofPakistan. With reduced production and continued strong prices, U.S. exports and trade share declined relative to 1995/96levels. The long-term trends suggest that net cotton trade should marginally decline as raw cotton consumption continuesto decline in nonproducing countries.

• Net exports by Africa continued the upward trend in 1996/97 reaching 869 tmt due to increased production stemmingfrom a substantial increase in cotton area and above-average yields. Net exports generally decline after 1996/97 asconsumption increases more than offset increases in production.

• With increased production in recent years, Argentina has established itself as a substantial net exporter of cotton. Netexports grew to 312 tmt in 1996/97 as high yields brought about increased production despite a decline in area. Withincreased competition from other crops, cotton area is projected to decline in the longer term. As a result, net exports arenot projected to continue to increase over the long term.

• Increased supplies of cotton allowed India to expand net exports to 244 tmt in 1996/97. Cotton acreage for 1997/98 isprojected to decline due to weak internal prices of cotton. As a result, India’s role as a net exporter is projected to declinefrom 1996/97. India should remain a small net exporter of raw cotton because their production is milled domestically.

• Lower yields in 1996/97 reduced net exports from Pakistan to 43 tmt. With flat area and normal yields, Pakistan willincrease net exports in 1997/98 and remain a small net exporter over the projection period.

• Cotton exports out of the United States are projected to rebound in 1997/98 from the low level of 1996/97 as the UnitedStates is able to expand trade share. Net exports generally decline thereafter as world net trade falls.

• As cotton area has shifted to grains and oilseeds, Brazil has increasingly looked to the international market to meet itsgrowing domestic consumption. With area projected to remain flat and domestic mill use continuing to increase, netimports are projected to grow over the projection period.

• Net imports by China are projected to decline to 398 tmt in 1996/97 as internal supplies remain stable and mill usedeclines. Net imports contract longer term with marginal growth in production and stable to declining domestic mill use.

• Other Asia is projected to increase net imports of cotton from 1.27 mmt in 1996/97 to almost 1.42 mmt by 2005/06 asincreased mill consumption is fueled by population and income growth.

• Although down slightly from the 1995/96 level, world cotton prices remain above historical levels for 1996/97 with theA-Index averaging $1,751 per mt. Strong demand and continued tightness in stocks have contributed to the recent pricelevels. As world production and stocks recover in 1997/98, the A-Index is projected to fall to $1,707 per mt. Pricesgenerally range between $1,650 and $1,800 per mt thereafter.

Cotton / 173

All Cotton Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Africa 626 869 781 779 779 762 758 750 745 742 741 Argentina 212 312 303 291 287 286 288 290 291 293 294 Australia 305 479 441 418 416 421 428 436 443 450 458 India 118 244 33 0 18 39 55 63 71 81 89 Other FSU-15 335 276 321 347 351 351 355 358 361 363 366 Other Latin America -18 -98 -130 -149 -154 -156 -157 -158 -160 -164 -169 Other Middle East 173 244 199 202 202 199 197 193 190 187 184 Pakistan 285 43 105 117 103 96 89 80 71 62 53 Turkey -42 -185 -152 -144 -144 -140 -133 -126 -121 -118 -114 United States 1,585 1,339 1,472 1,521 1,486 1,450 1,444 1,429 1,414 1,398 1,379 Uzbekistan 979 935 960 983 980 973 972 972 971 969 968


Net Importers Brazil 348 523 624 632 634 632 631 633 637 642 647 Canada 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 China 658 398 290 326 296 264 286 266 237 206 173 East Europe 292 300 299 305 305 304 305 308 311 314 316 European Union 649 708 601 576 561 545 532 521 510 500 489 Japan 331 310 282 272 259 246 232 217 204 190 176 Mexico 55 33 70 69 71 82 88 97 105 113 121 Other Asia 1,212 1,274 1,296 1,324 1,341 1,352 1,362 1,377 1,393 1,408 1,423 Other Western Europe 40 38 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 Russia 239 207 205 200 204 212 223 237 253 271 290 South Korea 336 314 304 301 297 293 289 286 282 278 274 Taiwan 249 238 234 232 229 227 224 223 222 221 220 Residual 84 50 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Cotlook A Index /a 1,886 1,751 1,707 1,653 1,665 1,712 1,751 1,766 1,773 1,785 1,804 CIF Northern EuropeU.S. Farm Price 1,695 1,573 1,466 1,424 1,433 1,470 1,500 1,512 1,517 1,527 1,541

a/ The "A" index is the average of the five lowest CIF Northern European quotes of the following descriptions(Middling 1-3/32"): Memphis; Calif./Ariz.; Mexican; Central American; Paraguayan; Turkish Izmir/Antalya;Central Asian; Pakistani 1503; Indian H-4; Chinese 329; African 'Franc Zone'; Tanzanian; Greek; and Australian.SOURCE: Cotlook, Ltd., Liverpool, England.

174 / Cotton

Cotton / 175

176 / Cotton

World Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Area Harvested 35,431 33,540 32,414 32,273 32,112 31,969 32,099 32,167 32,224 32,244 32,256

(Kilograms per Hectare)Yield 564 561 583 588 593 599 605 611 616 621 627

(Thousand Hectares)Production 19,993 18,812 18,896 18,972 19,039 19,140 19,417 19,645 19,856 20,039 20,218Domestic Use 18,353 18,654 18,776 19,003 19,169 19,295 19,436 19,614 19,810 20,006 20,199Ending Stocks 7,873 7,949 8,019 7,936 7,752 7,544 7,473 7,451 7,443 7,423 7,388

Stock to Use Ratio 43% 43% 43% 42% 40% 39% 38% 38% 38% 37% 37%

U.S. Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 3,897 4,134 4,012 4,047 4,019 3,994 4,060 4,088 4,121 4,144 4,162Beginning Stocks 577 568 957 1,032 1,042 1,015 966 950 935 923 908Imports 89 97 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19Total Supply 4,563 4,798 4,987 5,098 5,079 5,028 5,044 5,057 5,074 5,085 5,089Consumption 2,308 2,416 2,476 2,528 2,569 2,605 2,643 2,685 2,729 2,772 2,813Exports 1,585 1,339 1,472 1,521 1,486 1,450 1,444 1,429 1,414 1,398 1,379Total Use 3,893 3,755 3,948 4,049 4,056 4,054 4,087 4,114 4,144 4,169 4,192Ending Stocks 568 957 1,032 1,042 1,015 966 950 935 923 908 889Loss 22 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11 -11

African Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 1,440 1,725 1,575 1,600 1,610 1,598 1,605 1,607 1,614 1,621 1,629Beginning Stocks 211 270 347 337 339 340 338 338 337 338 338Imports 220 209 225 230 235 240 245 250 255 260 265Total Supply 1,871 2,204 2,147 2,167 2,184 2,178 2,188 2,194 2,206 2,219 2,232Consumption 747 771 796 811 822 830 839 849 860 871 880Exports 846 1,078 1,006 1,009 1,014 1,002 1,003 1,000 1,000 1,002 1,006Total Use 1,593 1,849 1,802 1,820 1,836 1,832 1,842 1,849 1,860 1,873 1,886Ending Stocks 270 347 337 339 340 338 338 337 338 338 338Loss 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Argentine Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 392 425 402 393 390 390 392 394 395 396 398Beginning Stocks 236 315 326 322 320 319 319 320 320 320 321Imports 6 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5Total Supply 634 744 733 719 715 714 716 718 720 722 723Consumption 100 100 101 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 101Exports 218 316 308 296 292 291 293 295 296 298 299Total Use 318 416 409 398 394 393 394 396 398 399 400Ending Stocks 315 326 322 320 319 319 320 320 320 321 321Loss 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Cotton / 177

Australian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


(Kilograms per Hectare)Yield 1,382 1,451 1,448 1,453 1,458 1,463 1,468 1,473 1,478 1,483 1,488


Indian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 2,720 2,678 2,605 2,652 2,705 2,763 2,824 2,885 2,947 3,009 3,071Beginning Stocks 595 715 580 558 563 559 548 538 531 525 517Imports 17 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15Total Supply 3,332 3,410 3,200 3,225 3,284 3,337 3,387 3,438 3,493 3,549 3,604Consumption 2,482 2,569 2,595 2,647 2,692 2,735 2,779 2,829 2,882 2,936 2,993Exports 135 261 48 15 33 54 70 78 86 96 104Total Use 2,617 2,830 2,643 2,662 2,725 2,789 2,849 2,907 2,968 3,032 3,097Ending Stocks 715 580 558 563 559 548 538 531 525 517 507Loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

178 / Cotton

Other FSU-15 Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Other Latin American Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Cotton / 179

180 / Cotton

Other Middle Eastern Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 458 490 474 482 485 485 488 490 492 495 498Beginning Stocks 72 111 90 94 96 97 96 96 95 96 96Imports 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20Total Supply 551 621 584 596 601 601 604 605 608 611 613Consumption 247 266 271 277 282 286 291 296 302 308 314Exports 194 264 219 222 222 219 217 213 210 207 204Total Use 441 530 490 500 504 505 508 510 512 515 518Ending Stocks 111 90 94 96 97 96 96 95 96 96 96Loss -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Pakistani Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 1,785 1,481 1,711 1,704 1,704 1,708 1,714 1,720 1,726 1,731 1,737Beginning Stocks 368 339 225 265 269 274 277 280 284 289 293Imports 27 44 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25Total Supply 2,180 1,864 1,961 1,993 1,998 2,007 2,016 2,025 2,035 2,045 2,055Consumption 1,524 1,546 1,561 1,577 1,592 1,604 1,617 1,630 1,645 1,660 1,676Exports 312 87 130 142 128 121 114 105 96 87 78Total Use 1,836 1,633 1,691 1,719 1,719 1,725 1,731 1,735 1,741 1,747 1,753Ending Stocks 339 225 265 269 274 277 280 284 289 293 297Loss 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Cotton / 181

Turkish Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


(Kilograms per Hectare)Yield 1,130 1,067 1,148 1,169 1,192 1,213 1,235 1,256 1,278 1,300 1,322

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 837 762 816 836 851 870 894 919 941 962 985Beginning Stocks 162 131 142 151 155 158 161 164 168 171 175Imports 100 218 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175Total Supply 1,099 1,111 1,133 1,161 1,181 1,203 1,230 1,257 1,284 1,309 1,335Consumption 910 936 959 975 992 1,008 1,024 1,041 1,059 1,077 1,095Exports 58 33 23 31 31 35 42 49 54 57 61Total Use 968 969 982 1,006 1,023 1,043 1,066 1,090 1,112 1,134 1,156Ending Stocks 131 142 151 155 158 161 164 168 171 175 178Loss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Uzbekistani Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 1,250 1,045 1,183 1,190 1,188 1,184 1,188 1,190 1,192 1,193 1,195Beginning Stocks 208 289 198 218 219 219 218 219 219 219 219Imports 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Total Supply 1,459 1,335 1,382 1,409 1,408 1,404 1,407 1,410 1,412 1,414 1,415Consumption 191 200 203 206 209 212 215 218 221 224 227Exports 980 936 961 984 981 974 973 973 972 970 969Total Use 1,171 1,136 1,164 1,190 1,190 1,186 1,188 1,191 1,193 1,194 1,196Ending Stocks 289 198 218 219 219 218 219 219 219 219 220Loss -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 / Cotton

Brazilian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Hectares)Area Harvested 1,130 750 713 705 701 704 714 729 738 741 741


(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 390 305 276 276 278 282 290 299 306 311 314Beginning Stocks 346 236 192 206 212 213 212 212 213 214 215Imports 370 523 634 642 644 642 641 643 647 652 657Total Supply 1,106 1,064 1,102 1,124 1,134 1,137 1,143 1,154 1,166 1,177 1,186Consumption 849 871 886 902 911 915 921 931 941 952 961Exports 22 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10Total Use 871 871 896 912 921 925 931 941 951 962 971Ending Stocks 236 192 206 212 213 212 212 213 214 215 215Loss -1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Canadian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


Cotton / 183

Chinese Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 4,768 3,810 3,770 3,730 3,736 3,783 3,853 3,913 3,954 3,984 4,012Beginning Stocks 2,107 3,288 3,310 3,212 3,084 2,923 2,782 2,734 2,724 2,720 2,712Imports 663 420 340 376 346 314 336 316 287 256 223Total Supply 7,538 7,518 7,420 7,318 7,166 7,021 6,971 6,963 6,965 6,960 6,948Consumption 4,246 4,187 4,158 4,184 4,193 4,189 4,186 4,189 4,194 4,198 4,198Exports 5 22 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50Total Use 4,251 4,209 4,208 4,234 4,243 4,239 4,236 4,239 4,244 4,248 4,248Ending Stocks 3,288 3,310 3,212 3,084 2,923 2,782 2,734 2,724 2,720 2,712 2,700Loss -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Eastern European Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




European Union Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


(Kilograms per Hectare)Yield 1,023 818 983 992 1,001 1,010 1,019 1,028 1,037 1,046 1,055

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 484 414 516 527 538 550 561 573 585 597 609Beginning Stocks 372 380 389 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400Imports 966 967 901 881 871 860 852 846 840 835 829Total Supply 1,822 1,761 1,806 1,808 1,809 1,810 1,813 1,819 1,825 1,832 1,839Consumption 1,110 1,104 1,096 1,093 1,089 1,085 1,083 1,084 1,085 1,087 1,089Exports 317 259 300 305 310 315 320 325 330 335 340Total Use 1,427 1,363 1,396 1,398 1,399 1,400 1,403 1,409 1,415 1,422 1,429Ending Stocks 380 389 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400Loss 15 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

Japanese Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


184 / Cotton

Mexican Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06




Other Asian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06



(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 89 87 85 84 83 83 85 87 89 91 92Beginning Stocks 216 202 210 209 208 208 208 208 208 208 209Imports 1,281 1,338 1,361 1,389 1,406 1,417 1,427 1,442 1,458 1,473 1,488Total Supply 1,586 1,627 1,656 1,682 1,698 1,708 1,720 1,736 1,755 1,772 1,789Consumption 1,307 1,345 1,376 1,401 1,418 1,428 1,440 1,456 1,474 1,492 1,508Exports 69 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65Total Use 1,376 1,409 1,441 1,466 1,483 1,493 1,505 1,521 1,539 1,557 1,573Ending Stocks 202 210 209 208 208 208 208 208 208 209 209Loss 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

Cotton / 185

186 / Cotton

Other Western European Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


Russian Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


Cotton / 187

South Korean Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Beginning Stocks 177 175 174 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175Imports 337 316 306 303 299 295 291 288 284 280 276Total Supply 514 491 480 478 475 471 467 463 459 456 452Consumption 337 316 303 301 298 294 290 286 282 279 275Exports 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2Total Use 338 318 305 303 300 296 292 288 284 281 277Ending Stocks 175 174 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175 175Loss 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Taiwanese Cotton Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


190 / Sugar

World Sugar

• Brazilian sugar production in 1996/97 is predicted to be slightly higher than the 1995/96 level. Sugar production isexpected to grow faster than consumption, leading to export growth of more than 1 mmt by 2005/06.

• Cuban production is likely to expand steadily over the projection period and will outpace increases in consumption,leading to a small increase in exports. However, increases in financing could lead to more rapid recovery of the Cubansugar industry and higher exports.

• Sugar production in the EU is projected to increase by 450 tmt in 1996/97 because of small increases in both area andyield. Even though production is expected to be stable over the projection period, sugar exports decline because of GATTcommitments on subsidized exports.

• Australian sugar production in 1996/97 is up slightly relative to the 1995/96 level. During the next 10 years, productionis expected to grow steadily, mostly through yield growth. With a stagnant domestic demand, exports are projected toincrease from 3.9 mmt in 1996/97 to 4.3 mmt by 2005/06.

• Thailand’s sugar production is expected to increase by more than 1 mmt in the next 10 years because of small increases inarea and yield. Higher growth in production relative to consumption leads to a rise in exports during the projectionperiod.

• China’s high carryover stocks in 1996/97 are likely to reduce imports by slightly less than half of 1995/96 levels. Butimports are expected to double in 1997/98 and increase marginally for the remainder of the projection period.

• Sugar production in the FSU is expected to grow steadily for the next 10 years but consumption is projected to increase ata faster rate, causing imports to increase, particularly in the last half of the projection period.

Sugar / 191

Sugar Trade

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Australia 3,998 4,043 3,996 4,077 4,095 4,091 4,139 4,160 4,212 4,256 4,308 Brazil 4,770 4,770 4,896 5,129 5,236 5,400 5,541 5,659 5,737 5,821 5,909 Cuba 3,250 3,249 3,364 3,398 3,432 3,466 3,500 3,535 3,570 3,605 3,641 European Union 3,426 2,410 2,654 2,711 2,669 2,523 2,522 2,471 2,472 2,459 2,461 Thailand 3,428 3,597 3,666 3,806 3,904 3,951 4,018 4,074 4,139 4,202 4,265


Net Importers China 1,230 727 1,518 1,527 1,535 1,544 1,553 1,562 1,570 1,579 1,588 Eastern Europe 1,023 366 346 377 368 358 347 336 323 310 295 Former Soviet Union 3,171 3,035 2,920 3,119 3,057 3,122 3,188 3,256 3,325 3,395 3,466 Japan 1,672 1,641 1,634 1,647 1,673 1,690 1,709 1,723 1,736 1,748 1,759 United States 1,227 2,153 2,100 2,298 2,242 2,231 2,281 2,344 2,427 2,523 2,631 Rest of World 10,549 10,148 10,057 10,153 10,460 10,486 10,642 10,679 10,749 10,788 10,844


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)FOB Caribbean Price 306 273 300 301 272 282 274 282 287 296 303New York Spot 502 498 495 499 502 504 506 509 511 514 516

192 / Sugar

Sugar / 193

U.S. Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


194 / Sugar

Australian Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 4,950 5,060 5,013 5,092 5,135 5,145 5,205 5,237 5,296 5,348 5,407Beginning Stocks 190 192 216 234 236 238 243 244 247 248 248Total Supply 5,140 5,252 5,229 5,326 5,372 5,382 5,448 5,481 5,543 5,595 5,655Consumption 950 994 998 1,013 1,039 1,047 1,065 1,073 1,084 1,091 1,100Net Exports 3,998 4,043 3,996 4,077 4,095 4,091 4,139 4,160 4,212 4,256 4,308Total Use 4,948 5,036 4,994 5,090 5,134 5,139 5,204 5,234 5,295 5,347 5,408Ending Stocks 192 216 234 236 238 243 244 247 248 248 247

Brazilian Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 13,000 13,249 13,330 13,584 13,859 14,010 14,210 14,314 14,401 14,475 14,566Beginning Stocks 732 862 958 1,016 1,060 1,107 1,138 1,165 1,181 1,191 1,194Total Supply 13,732 14,111 14,288 14,600 14,919 15,118 15,348 15,479 15,582 15,665 15,760Consumption 8,100 8,382 8,376 8,411 8,576 8,580 8,642 8,639 8,654 8,651 8,656Net Exports 4,770 4,770 4,896 5,129 5,236 5,400 5,541 5,659 5,737 5,821 5,909Total Use 12,870 13,152 13,272 13,540 13,812 13,980 14,183 14,298 14,392 14,471 14,565Ending Stocks 862 958 1,016 1,060 1,107 1,138 1,165 1,181 1,191 1,194 1,195

Cuban Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 4,000 4,040 4,080 4,121 4,162 4,204 4,246 4,289 4,331 4,375 4,418Beginning Stocks 50 100 184 186 188 190 191 193 195 198 200Total Supply 4,050 4,140 4,264 4,307 4,350 4,394 4,438 4,482 4,527 4,572 4,618Consumption 700 707 714 722 729 736 744 752 760 768 776Net Exports 3,250 3,249 3,364 3,398 3,432 3,466 3,500 3,535 3,570 3,605 3,641Total Use 3,950 3,956 4,079 4,119 4,160 4,202 4,244 4,287 4,329 4,373 4,416Ending Stocks 100 184 186 188 190 191 193 195 198 200 202

Sugar / 195

European Union Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 16,558 17,008 16,687 16,787 16,685 16,528 16,597 16,557 16,590 16,588 16,605Beginning Stocks 2,939 2,055 2,656 2,746 2,771 2,772 2,734 2,739 2,732 2,738 2,739Total Supply 19,497 19,063 19,343 19,533 19,456 19,300 19,331 19,296 19,322 19,326 19,344Consumption 14,016 13,997 13,943 14,051 14,015 14,043 14,070 14,093 14,112 14,128 14,140Net Exports 3,426 2,410 2,654 2,711 2,669 2,523 2,522 2,471 2,472 2,459 2,461Total Use 17,442 16,407 16,597 16,762 16,684 16,566 16,592 16,564 16,585 16,587 16,601Ending Stocks 2,055 2,656 2,746 2,771 2,772 2,734 2,739 2,732 2,738 2,739 2,743

Thailand Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 5,000 5,073 5,254 5,458 5,616 5,697 5,816 5,920 6,040 6,160 6,286Beginning Stocks 595 667 646 651 679 713 739 766 791 816 841Total Supply 5,595 5,740 5,901 6,109 6,295 6,410 6,556 6,686 6,831 6,976 7,127Consumption 1,500 1,496 1,583 1,624 1,677 1,720 1,771 1,821 1,876 1,933 1,996Net Exports 3,428 3,597 3,666 3,806 3,904 3,951 4,018 4,074 4,139 4,202 4,265Total Use 4,928 5,093 5,250 5,430 5,581 5,671 5,789 5,895 6,015 6,135 6,260Ending Stocks 667 646 651 679 713 739 766 791 816 841 866

Chinese Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 6,500 6,520 6,539 6,559 6,578 6,598 6,618 6,638 6,658 6,678 6,698Beginning Stocks 2,272 2,002 1,220 1,221 1,222 1,224 1,225 1,226 1,227 1,229 1,230Net Imports 1,230 727 1,518 1,527 1,535 1,544 1,553 1,562 1,570 1,579 1,588Total Supply 10,002 9,248 9,277 9,307 9,336 9,366 9,396 9,425 9,455 9,485 9,515Consumption 8,000 8,028 8,056 8,084 8,113 8,141 8,169 8,198 8,227 8,256 8,284Ending Stocks 2,002 1,220 1,221 1,222 1,224 1,225 1,226 1,227 1,229 1,230 1,231

196 / Sugar

Eastern European Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 3,645 3,508 3,613 3,722 3,833 3,948 4,067 4,189 4,314 4,444 4,577Beginning Stocks 574 522 506 478 490 503 515 528 541 555 569Net Imports 1,023 366 346 377 368 358 347 336 323 310 295Total Supply 5,242 4,396 4,466 4,577 4,692 4,809 4,929 5,053 5,179 5,308 5,441Consumption 4,720 3,890 3,987 4,087 4,189 4,294 4,401 4,511 4,624 4,740 4,858Ending Stocks 522 506 478 490 503 515 528 541 555 569 583

Former Soviet Union Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06


Japanese Sugar Supply and Utilization

95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

(1,000 Metric Tons)Production 869 838 834 835 836 837 839 840 842 844 845Beginning Stocks 144 165 166 163 160 159 160 160 161 161 162Net Imports 1,672 1,641 1,634 1,647 1,673 1,690 1,709 1,723 1,736 1,748 1,759Total Supply 2,685 2,644 2,634 2,644 2,670 2,687 2,708 2,723 2,739 2,753 2,766Consumption 2,520 2,478 2,471 2,484 2,511 2,526 2,548 2,562 2,578 2,591 2,604Ending Stocks 165 166 163 160 159 160 160 161 161 162 162

Sugar / 197

Meat

World Meat

Beef and Veal

World Pork

Poultry

200 / Meat

World Meat

• Long-term projections are for rapid growth in poultry consumption, as developing countries experience strong andsustained economic growth and their demand for relatively inexpensive meat soars. Low-cost poultry producers, led bythe United States, are able to expand production capacity to meet this demand, thus keeping prices stable.

• Demand for meat continues to expand in Asia. In the high-income countries, Japan and Korea, trade liberalization lowersdomestic prices and the scarcity of seafood, as well as growing Western-style work and food habits, promote meat, inparticular beef, consumption and imports. China accounts for the largest growth in all meat consumption, as the economyof this most populous country in the world is expected to grow at more than 8 percent annually until the end of theprojection period. Meat self-sufficiency policies, with relatively large beginning livestock inventories, will limit red meatimport demand, while poultry and grain imports grow steadily to meet the income-driven demand for protein.

• Latin American countries expand their production capacities, but in general, the projected strong and sustained economicgrowth will contribute to meat consumption levels growing at least as fast as production, thus either increasing importdemand as in Mexico or limiting export capacities as in Argentina and Brazil.

• Despite the continued slide in economic activity, and a projected delay of recovery in the FSU, consumption and importdemand for meat have not weakened in recent years. Thus, in view of the expected economic recovery, either stable orgrowing demand for meat imports are projected.

• The Western countries and Oceania are projected to face a trend decline in per capita consumption of beef, primarilysubstituted with poultry. However, beef export potential is limited in the EU by WTO commitments, and in Oceania byland resources and cost competitiveness. Labor costs hamper expansion of poultry in the EU for export markets. In theUnited States, high productivity enables continued expansion of meat production to capture most of the growing meatimport demands, in addition to meeting the increasing domestic demand, particularly in poultry.

• World beef net imports are projected to grow by 53 percent over the next 10 years, with most of the gain coming fromJapan, Mexico, and Korea. The share of exports will be substantially conditioned by the cattle cycle in the United States,the largest beef producer. On the descending phase of the cycle through 2000, world beef prices rise, enabling competitorsto increase exports. But, in the ascending phase of the cycle from 2001 to 2006, U.S. beef price weakens, and U.S.exports triple from 0.35 mmt to more than 1.02 mmt in five years. The Canadian export sector is also projected to grow asthe livestock sector in the West becomes more competitive with the elimination of freight subsidies.

• Growth in net imports of pork is projected to increase at an annual average rate of 4.5 percent, with much of the increaseaccounted for by Japan (the traditional large importer), Korea (liberalization in 1997), and Mexico (strong economicgrowth, and NAFTA). Varying factors limit expansion in the EU, Taiwan, and in Eastern Europe. China, despite beingthe largest producer, faces cutbacks in exports to meet domestic demand. The United States rapidly strengthens its netexport position, increasing exports by 50 to 150 tmt annually. As in the case of beef, Western development helps porkproduction in Canada, which is projected to increase net exports by nearly 100 tmt over the period. These projections donot incorporate the ban on exports by Taiwan.

• Net exports of broilers increase by 1.4 mmt, with the United States as a low-cost producer accounting for a little over 1mmt of this increase. Of the other major exporters, Brazil, with an expanding industry, accounts for most of the other 0.4mmt, while the EU, Eastern Europe, and Thailand are restrained by low productivity and/or high labor cost in this labor-intensive sector. Most of the import growth comes from China, FSU, and Mexico. Despite increasing domestic meatproduction, these countries are unable to meet the growing protein demand and thus show differential preference forbroilers, a relatively inexpensive meat.

Meat / 201

Beef and Veal

• Driven by the cattle cycle, the U.S. cattle price is projected to continue to strengthen until 2001, gaining nearly 26 percentover the 1996 average Nebraska fed steer price of $1,436 per mt. While strong income growth in Asia and Mexicopromotes world import demand, the United States is not likely to capture a large share of this during the next five yearsbecause of high U.S. prices. However, during the expansion phase of the cycle from 2001 to 2006, U.S. net exports areprojected to rise rapidly by a total of 650 tmt as prices decline at 3 to 4 percent annually.

• Formal announcement in March 1996 of the likely health hazard of BSE led to an 11 percent drop in beef consumptionand an 8 percent drop in beef producer prices in the EU for that year. Consumption is projected to recover partially fromthis shock over the next few years, yet the long-term trend decline of the past will keep per capita consumption levelsdepressed. The eradication program is estimated to have removed 930 thousand cattle and 400 thousand calves by the endof 1996, with another 770 thousand cattle and 350 thousand calves to be removed in 1997. Despite this supply reduction,the combined decline in domestic and export demands results in re-accumulation of stocks to nearly 900 tmt. Unable toexport any significant quantities unsubsidized over the WTO limits and facing low domestic demand, the EU is not likelyto be able to significantly reduce stocks within the projection period under the prevailing policy mix.

• Beef production in China is projected to increase 83 percent in the next 10 years, following a 180 percent increase for thelast five years. Such rapid production gains are possible, in part, due to assumed success of the government’s policy toincrease straw-fed cattle, and in part to current low productivity levels and large animal inventories. Chinese slaughter peryear is nearly the same as in the United States, yet beef production is only 40 percent of that of U.S. production. Thus, thepotential for expansion is enormous. In spite of such expansion, only limited export surplus is projected in view of therecent consumption trend as well as the policy direction to shift away from pork, a feed-grain-intensive meat.

• Beef consumption in Japan slowed down in mid-1996 from the BSE and E. coli threats in a row, thus ending the 7 to 9percent average annual increases seen since liberalization. This setback is expected to be temporary, and the continuingtrend of Western lifestyle as well as the scarcity of seafood will strengthen beef’s share in the Japanese diet, while domes-tic production will ease with lower direct and indirect (dairy) supports. Thus, import demand is projected to grow,especially as U.S. prices fall after 2001.

• South Korea imports at WTO commitment levels until 2000. Thereafter, a weakening world price for beef promptsincreased purchases on the world market, and imports increase by 33 percent during the last five years.

• Cattle inventories continue to decline in the FSU, and recovery is not projected until after economic recovery in1999-2000. However, consumption demand has not weakened as much in recent years, and consequently imports haverisen. In the next several years, as inventory starts to build back, production will remain depressed, further increasingimport demand. Thereafter, although production picks up, matching consumption growth will contribute to keeping theFSU a consistent net importer of more than 500 tmt of beef per year.

• Steady income growth and low beginning per capita beef consumption levels, coupled with NAFTA-related easing ofimport barriers, will enable Mexican consumption to grow at an average annual rate of 4 percent. Share of imports inconsumption grows from 5 percent in 1997 to more than 15 percent by the end of projection because of the relativeweakening of the import price.

• While the cattle herd expands in Brazil in response to economic reform and stability, gains in productivity remain sluggishdue to poor animal health and husbandry conditions. On the other hand, the economic reform is boosting domesticdemand growth, outpacing domestic supply, and thus the projection is for exports to decline somewhat, especially in thelater period when world prices are low.

• Australia recovers from drought in 1996, with a near-term stagnation in beef output as herd rebuilding is undertaken.This will be followed by a gradual increase in production specifically targeted to the demand growth in High-Income EastAsia. Production is projected to expand at 1.5 to 2 percent annually, enabling, on average, 20 to 30 tmt additional exportsevery year.

• A productivity-driven expansion in Canadian beef production is projected in view of the improving competitiveness inthe West. This enables Canada to retain a steady net export level close to 100 tmt over the next 10 years.

202 / Meat

Beef and Veal Trade

1,996 1,997 1,998 1,999 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Argentina 446 478 440 454 491 539 564 580 571 532 510 Australia 1,092 1,099 1,139 1,177 1,215 1,257 1,283 1,291 1,290 1,281 1,277 Brazil 215 271 256 252 270 305 302 291 275 219 173 Canada 25 78 87 93 104 116 116 110 104 93 89 China - Mainland 101 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Eastern Europe 5 -6 7 19 29 36 18 -5 -18 -37 -39 European Union 415 572 572 542 497 370 370 370 370 370 370 New Zealand 502 489 502 520 539 559 576 593 610 626 642 United States -105 61 312 427 371 350 354 516 666 928 1,018


Net Importers Former Soviet Union 366 423 548 599 601 661 631 625 615 600 572 Japan 903 917 975 1,026 1,039 1,045 1,065 1,120 1,167 1,199 1,201 Mexico 73 107 190 264 283 253 280 329 367 441 490 South Korea 203 230 258 284 311 312 330 357 380 405 411 Rest of World/Residual 1,151 1,460 1,438 1,406 1,377 1,356 1,371 1,409 1,436 1,459 1,460


Nebraska Direct (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Fed Steer Price 1,436 1,448 1,548 1,657 1,751 1,815 1,731 1,607 1,546 1,475 1,508

Meat / 203

Pork

• High feed-grain prices of 1996 led to a 7 percent drop in world swine herd during the year, with sharp reductions seen inChina, Mexico, Germany, Russia, Japan, Canada, and the United States. Consequently, pork production is projected tostagnate in 1997, while consumption demand temporarily picks up as a substitute for beef affected by BSE, leading to astrong world price in 1997. A 4 to 5 percent annual average growth in world net imports is projected, with the primarygrowth markets being Japan, Korea, and Mexico. Apart from a modest gain by Canada, almost all of the 800 tmt addedimport market over the period will be captured by the United States given both price and quality advantages.

• The United States is poised to become the world’s largest net exporter of pork, with almost 75 to 100 tmt additionalexports per year as quality and competitive price favors U.S. products in the growing import markets of Japan and Korea.EU and Taiwan, the traditional competitors in these markets, are further constrained by environmental and WTO consider-ations. The emerging Mexican market that is strengthened by income growth is an added bonanza to U.S. exporters.

• China accounts for more than half of the world’s swine inventory, and half of the world’s pork production. Even so, the 3percent annual growth in total consumption resulting from income and population growth will necessitate more than 1mmt of additional pork per year on average. Assumed meat self-sufficiency policies prevent a reversal of the trade patternof this traditional net exporter. Consequently, feed-grain imports increase.

• Taiwan’s export expansion capacities are limited by both environmental concerns as well as competition from the UnitedStates in its main market, Japan. Note that these projections were completed in January, 1997 and do not incorporate thefoot and mouth disease outbreak reported in Taiwan in March.

• Pork prices in the EU are projected to fall slightly in 1997 and 1998, as the BSE-induced increase in demand fades. Percapita consumption stays stable at a little over 40 kg. While hog inventories show marginal decline, increased yieldenables a less than 0.5 percent annual average growth in pork production. Current export levels, which exceed WTOlimits by more than 100 tmt, suggest the possibility of continued unsubsidized exports to high-income countries such asJapan. Projections are for exports to remain close to 550 to 600 tmt throughout the period.

• While the snapback provision in Japan continues to affect the trade flow, this is not projected to affect long-run demandgrowth. A 30 percent growth in imports over the period is projected, as the share of imports in consumption outgrows thatof domestic production.

• Import demand for pork in the FSU continues to grow despite its being the most expensive meat, as low feed availability,high grain prices, and lack of state support affect the domestic swine industry. The industry is projected to recover withthe economy in 2000, yet the growing consumption demand leads to continued imports of nearly 0.5 mmt annually.

• Korean pork imports slowed in 1996, as production increased due to inventory reductions undertaken in anticipation ofliberalization. While new investments and modernization will enable Korea to expand high-quality pork exports to Japanat about 1 percent annually, import demand for U.S. pork will continue to grow because of competitive prices.

• Hog inventory in Mexico continues on the decline, with an 11 percent drop in 1996, and an additional 8 percent dropexpected for 1997, primarily attributed to high grain prices from exchange rate changes and elimination of the feed cornsubsidy. Projected 4 percent steady income growth will increase consumption demand by nearly 50 tmt per year onaverage, while the annual increase in production amounts to only 25 tmt.

204 / Meat

Meat / 205

Pork Trade

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Canada 290 294 310 308 335 369 329 289 332 370 370 China - Mainland 250 248 223 208 205 203 189 180 182 185 174 Eastern Europe 130 100 97 71 65 81 90 83 87 105 112 European Union 590 583 557 528 530 554 555 555 581 605 606 Taiwan 362 367 360 348 347 354 355 349 349 357 357 United States 129 269 420 602 659 669 844 1,025 964 886 983


Net Imports China - Hong Kong 165 176 189 198 200 201 209 217 218 220 229 Former Soviet Union 522 542 572 564 535 509 546 594 579 561 566 Japan 897 904 927 957 1,014 1,105 1,151 1,167 1,185 1,202 1,224 Mexico 25 92 120 153 189 209 236 252 251 262 289 Other Western Europe 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 South Korea -4 27 50 69 74 78 93 113 119 124 154 Rest of World/Residual 136 107 95 109 113 107 104 112 118 111 110


Iowa-Southern Minnesota (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)Barrow and Gilt Price 1,176 1,187 1,022 927 1,001 1,081 1,016 945 1,027 1,106 1,023

206 / Meat

Meat / 207

Poultry

• World poultry production in 1997 increases 7.5 percent over the previous year despite continued production losses in FSUand East European countries caused by capital and feed shortage problems. The United States dominates world trade inbroilers, with net exports in 1997 estimated at 2.2 mmt. Main export markets have been Japan, the Middle East, and somehigh-income Asian countries included in the Rest of World (ROW) category in the tables. Projected growth in imports inthe next decade, however, will be led by China and to a lesser extent Mexico, while Japan and ROW also continue tomaintain sustained growth.

• The United States ranks as the highest in per capita broiler meat consumption at 36.8 kg per year in 1996, having in-creased consumption at a little over 1 percent annually over the last five years. Yet, even more rapid production growthhas caused exports to nearly quadruple in that period and now account for 18 percent of domestic production. Projectionsare for a 50 percent increase from the current 2 mmt net export level over the next 10 years, capturing most of the demandgrowth in China, Japan, Korea, FSU, and Mexico.

• Poultry production in China grew at an average annual rate of 35 percent during the last five years. A 90 percent increasein production over the next decade is projected, with exports growing by 74 percent as more high-quality cuts move intoJapan and Korea. However, strong domestic demand for the low-priced parts prompts Chinese imports to climb by 94percent, increasing net imports to nearly 670 tmt by 2006. This still accounts for no more than 3 percent of consumption.

• Mexico’s broiler imports continue to be above Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) limits set under NAFTA. With TRQ limitsincreasing at 3 percent until duty-free status after 2003, a continued increase in imports at nearly 25 tmt per year isanticipated because income-driven consumption is projected to increase at 7 percent annually, while production, con-strained by high capital as well as feed cost, only increases at 5.5 percent.

• The FSU in general, and Russia in particular, has shown very rapid growth in import dependency for broilers, increasingfrom a mere 4 percent of domestic use in 1992 to more than 55 percent by 1997. The United States has substantiallydisplaced the traditional European suppliers through competitive pricing, quality, and convenient packaging, especially ofthe dark meat cuts. The domestic industry faces numerous obstacles including high feed prices as well as deficiencies inproduction, processing, and marketing techniques. As such, projections are for continued import growth, but at a moremoderate rate of around 2 percent or 15 to 20 tmt per year.

• Long-run prospects for growth in broiler exports by the EU will be restrained by increasing domestic demand due to thetrend to shift away from red meats, rising feed and labor costs, as well as stringent environmental standards. Projectionsare for consumption to increase at 1.5 percent annually, and production growth to match this, with net imports nearlystable at a little over 0.5 mmt per year.

• Broiler net exports of Brazil, the third largest producer, continue to increase despite a fall in production attributed to highfeed cost. This results from lower domestic demand caused by weaker beef prices, increased BSE-related substitutiondemand in traditional markets in EU and Japan, and new market opportunities in Russia and the Middle East. Long-runprojections are for the current 0.5 mmt net exports to double, as feed prices moderate, and new investments are undertakenin the grain and meal producing regions in view of expanding opportunities.

• Import demand of the Rest-of-World category in the tables, which includes the High-Income Asian countries ofSingapore, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia, is projected to grow at 1 to 2 percent annually.

208 / Meat

Broiler Meat Trade

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Brazil 530 560 569 601 660 717 755 789 832 885 932 Eastern Europe 5 18 22 27 34 40 42 44 48 53 56 European Union 575 558 546 531 516 521 520 520 522 527 530 Thailand 165 160 159 160 161 161 161 160 161 161 161 United States 2,052 2,211 2,351 2,460 2,492 2,542 2,665 2,792 2,891 2,948 3,058


Net Importers Canada 35 37 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 China Mainland 300 352 384 418 446 479 521 561 597 630 672 Hong Kong 213 222 229 236 242 249 256 264 270 277 284 Former Soviet Union 834 882 878 889 886 910 936 959 979 993 1,014 Japan 533 550 584 616 633 648 669 693 717 738 764 Mexico 95 147 178 196 202 207 234 264 286 298 321 Saudi Arabia 290 297 303 308 312 316 322 327 332 336 341 South Korea 42 52 60 66 77 89 100 111 125 137 154 Rest of World/Residual 985 969 990 1,009 1,025 1,044 1,066 1,087 1,107 1,126 1,146


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)U.S. 12-City Price 1,351 1,268 1,254 1,260 1,283 1,298 1,285 1,275 1,279 1,296 1,297

Meat / 209

210 / Meat

U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Million Head, January 1)Cattle Inventories 103.49 101.21 99.75 98.06 97.11 97.04 98.04 99.35 100.13 100.53 100.09Hog Inventories 55.83 56.45 57.02 56.51 56.69 58.06 58.69 59.05 60.47 62.00 62.60

Beef (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 11,586 11,628 11,488 11,365 11,216 11,128 11,251 11,569 11,831 12,211 12,241 Beginning Stocks 235 204 201 212 205 199 196 187 193 203 210 Imports 948 930 943 954 965 1,023 1,023 1,023 1,023 1,023 1,023 Total Supply 12,769 12,762 12,632 12,531 12,386 12,350 12,470 12,779 13,046 13,437 13,474 Consumption 11,722 11,570 11,165 10,945 10,851 10,781 10,905 11,048 11,154 11,275 11,216 Exports 842 991 1,255 1,381 1,336 1,373 1,377 1,538 1,689 1,951 2,041 Total Use 12,565 12,561 12,420 12,326 12,187 12,154 12,283 12,586 12,843 13,226 13,257 End Stocks 204 201 212 205 199 196 187 193 203 210 217

Pork Production 7,772 7,928 8,393 8,809 8,856 8,877 9,195 9,491 9,373 9,327 9,624 Beginning Stocks 180 186 203 219 220 203 199 213 217 200 202 Imports 281 274 261 249 238 238 238 238 238 238 238 Total Supply 8,233 8,388 8,857 9,277 9,314 9,318 9,632 9,943 9,827 9,765 10,064 Consumption 7,637 7,642 7,957 8,206 8,213 8,212 8,337 8,463 8,425 8,439 8,627 Exports 410 543 681 851 898 907 1,082 1,263 1,202 1,124 1,221 Total Use 8,047 8,185 8,638 9,057 9,111 9,119 9,419 9,726 9,627 9,564 9,848 End Stocks 186 203 219 220 203 199 213 217 200 202 216

Broiler Meat Production 11,861 12,494 12,985 13,495 13,992 14,529 15,029 15,525 16,022 16,495 17,075 Beginning Stocks 254 272 291 289 290 290 294 297 298 299 298 Total Supply 12,115 12,766 13,276 13,784 14,282 14,820 15,324 15,823 16,320 16,794 17,373 Consumption 9,791 10,264 10,636 11,034 11,500 11,983 12,362 12,733 13,130 13,547 14,011 Exports 2,052 2,211 2,351 2,460 2,492 2,542 2,665 2,792 2,891 2,948 3,058 Total Use 11,843 12,475 12,987 13,494 13,992 14,525 15,027 15,524 16,021 16,495 17,069 Ending Stocks 272 291 289 290 290 294 297 298 299 298 304

Turkey Production 2,449 2,494 2,534 2,593 2,651 2,710 2,771 2,833 2,897 2,967 3,042 Beginning Stocks 123 136 133 128 127 125 124 123 122 120 120 Total Supply 2,572 2,630 2,667 2,720 2,778 2,835 2,895 2,956 3,019 3,087 3,162 Consumption 2,235 2,281 2,309 2,352 2,408 2,461 2,511 2,560 2,616 2,679 2,741 Exports 201 217 230 241 244 249 261 273 283 289 300 Total Use 2,436 2,497 2,540 2,593 2,653 2,710 2,772 2,834 2,899 2,967 3,040 Ending Stocks 136 133 128 127 125 124 123 122 120 120 121

Meat / 211

212 / Meat

U.S. Meat Supply and Utilization (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms, Retail Weight) Beef 30.66 29.99 28.69 27.87 27.39 26.99 27.07 27.20 27.24 27.32 26.97 Pork 22.32 22.13 22.83 23.33 23.15 22.95 23.11 23.28 22.98 22.84 23.16 Broiler Meat 36.88 38.30 39.33 40.43 41.78 43.17 44.17 45.13 46.16 47.25 48.46 Turkey 8.44 8.51 8.54 8.62 8.75 8.87 8.97 9.08 9.20 9.34 9.48 Total 98.30 98.92 99.39 100.26 101.07 101.98 103.33 104.69 105.59 106.75 108.07

Producer Prices (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) Nebraska Direct Fed Steers 1,436 1,447 1,548 1,657 1,751 1,815 1,731 1,607 1,546 1,475 1,508 Iowa-Southern Minnesota Barrows and Gilts 1,176 1,186 1,022 927 1,001 1,081 1,016 945 1,027 1,106 1,023 12-City Broiler Wholesale 1,351 1,273 1,254 1,260 1,283 1,298 1,285 1,275 1,279 1,296 1,297

Retail Prices (U.S. Dollars per Kilogram) Beef 6.18 6.24 6.69 7.03 7.29 7.53 7.44 7.29 7.28 7.23 7.38 Pork 4.87 4.91 4.85 4.82 5.06 5.31 5.29 5.25 5.49 5.65 5.64 Broiler 3.46 3.31 3.28 3.29 3.31 3.31 3.31 3.26 3.30 3.32 3.32 Turkey 2.24 2.18 2.24 2.23 2.25 2.24 2.21 2.16 2.17 2.19 2.13

Per Capita (U.S. Dollars, Retail) Meat Expenditures 445 441 451 461 475 488 490 487 496 504 511

Meat / 213

European Union Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Million Head, January 1)Cattle Inventories 84.54 84.43 83.50 82.78 82.08 81.40 80.64 79.81 78.97 78.15 77.36Hog Inventories 115.46 115.41 116.09 115.88 115.33 114.64 113.93 113.32 112.85 112.43 112.01Sheep Inventories 96.59 96.93 95.97 95.16 94.68 94.13 93.59 93.26 92.93 92.59 92.22

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 7,420 7,564 7,575 7,558 7,555 7,521 7,481 7,430 7,378 7,327 7,283 Consumption 6,557 6,932 7,002 6,994 7,038 7,121 7,124 7,093 7,050 7,000 6,953 Net Exports 415 572 572 542 497 370 370 370 370 370 370 Total Use 6,972 7,503 7,574 7,536 7,534 7,490 7,494 7,462 7,419 7,370 7,323 Ending Stocks 857 918 918 941 962 992 979 947 906 863 824

Pork Production 15,410 15,558 15,709 15,771 15,801 15,821 15,852 15,900 15,961 16,025 16,085 Consumption 14,964 14,971 15,140 15,234 15,267 15,265 15,297 15,344 15,380 15,420 15,478 Net Exports 590 583 557 528 530 554 555 555 581 605 606 Total Use 15,554 15,554 15,697 15,763 15,798 15,818 15,852 15,899 15,961 16,024 16,083 Ending Stocks 262 266 278 287 290 293 293 294 294 295 297

Poultry Production 8,096 8,232 8,357 8,456 8,541 8,633 8,746 8,868 8,989 9,112 9,232 Disappearance 7,468 7,589 7,728 7,845 7,949 8,035 8,149 8,270 8,389 8,506 8,623 Net Exports 664 644 629 611 592 599 598 598 600 607 609 Broiler Meat 575 558 546 531 516 521 520 520 522 527 530 Other 89 86 83 80 77 78 78 78 78 79 80

Lamb and Mutton Production 1,108 1,080 1,061 1,048 1,038 1,032 1,027 1,024 1,022 1,020 1,018 Net Imports 202 211 212 221 226 228 229 227 224 222 220 Disappearance 1,310 1,292 1,272 1,268 1,264 1,260 1,256 1,251 1,246 1,242 1,237

Per Capita Disappearance (Kilograms) Beef 17.57 18.52 18.66 18.59 18.66 18.83 18.78 18.65 18.49 18.31 18.14 Pork 40.10 40.00 40.34 40.49 40.48 40.36 40.33 40.35 40.34 40.34 40.38 Poultry Meat 20.01 20.27 20.59 20.85 21.07 21.24 21.48 21.75 22.00 22.25 22.50 Lamb and Mutton 3.16 3.11 3.05 3.03 3.02 3.00 2.98 2.96 2.94 2.92 2.91 Total 80.85 81.89 82.64 82.96 83.22 83.42 83.58 83.71 83.78 83.83 83.93

Prices (ECUs per Metric Ton) Beef Intervention 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 3,475 Pork Basic 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 1,509 Mutton Basic 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 5,041 Beef Producer 2,537 2,536 2,546 2,509 2,480 2,432 2,450 2,489 2,539 2,590 2,637 Pork Producer 1,513 1,493 1,430 1,388 1,371 1,359 1,356 1,352 1,351 1,347 1,337 Poultry Producer 1,272 1,267 1,234 1,212 1,210 1,217 1,228 1,237 1,248 1,258 1,266 Mutton Producer 3,197 2,985 2,945 2,969 2,993 3,027 3,101 3,151 3,202 3,246 3,295

Per Capita (ECUs at Producer Prices)Meat Expenditures 140,790 141,618 139,575 137,104 136,295 135,560 136,355 137,231 138,325 139,230 139,872

Notes: The European Union coverage is expanded to 15 countries, including Austria, Finland and Sweden, the new members Pork and poultry stock demands are not estimated separately. As such, both consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

Notes: The European Union coverage is expanded to 15 countries, including Austria, Finland and Sweden, the new members. Pork and poultry stock demands are not estimated separately. As such, both consumption and charges in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

Canadian Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,025 1,120 1,132 1,142 1,158 1,177 1,197 1,215 1,228 1,236 1,242 Consumption 995 1,042 1,045 1,048 1,054 1,061 1,081 1,105 1,124 1,143 1,153 Net Exports 25 78 87 93 104 116 116 110 104 93 89 Total Use 1,020 1,120 1,132 1,142 1,158 1,177 1,197 1,215 1,228 1,236 1,242 Ending Stocks 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Pork Production 1,245 1,275 1,310 1,328 1,370 1,414 1,390 1,368 1,423 1,473 1,441 Consumption 955 981 1,000 1,020 1,035 1,045 1,062 1,079 1,091 1,103 1,071 Net Exports 290 294 310 308 335 369 329 289 332 370 370 Total Use 1,245 1,275 1,310 1,328 1,370 1,414 1,390 1,368 1,423 1,473 1,441 Ending Stocks 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Broiler Meat Production 710 720 736 754 773 793 809 823 839 859 879 Net Imports 35 37 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 Total Supply 745 757 776 794 813 833 849 863 879 899 919 Consumption 744 757 776 794 813 833 849 863 879 899 919 Ending Stocks 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

214 / Meat

Former Soviet Union Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 5,291 4,949 4,763 4,626 4,753 4,895 5,063 5,220 5,370 5,531 5,686 Net Imports 366 423 548 599 601 661 631 625 615 600 572 Total Supply 5,657 5,372 5,312 5,225 5,354 5,556 5,694 5,845 5,985 6,131 6,258 Disappearance 5,657 5,372 5,312 5,225 5,354 5,556 5,694 5,845 5,985 6,131 6,258

Pork Production 3,520 3,419 3,464 3,560 3,648 3,749 3,832 3,909 4,012 4,124 4,212 Net Imports 522 542 572 564 535 509 546 594 579 561 566 Total Supply 4,042 3,961 4,036 4,125 4,183 4,258 4,378 4,503 4,591 4,685 4,778 Disappearance 4,042 3,961 4,036 4,125 4,183 4,258 4,378 4,503 4,591 4,685 4,778

Broiler Meat Production 749 735 784 831 888 934 980 1,027 1,077 1,132 1,184 Net Imports 834 882 878 889 886 910 936 959 979 993 1,014 Total Supply 1,583 1,617 1,662 1,720 1,775 1,844 1,915 1,986 2,056 2,125 2,198 Disappearance 1,583 1,617 1,662 1,720 1,775 1,844 1,915 1,986 2,056 2,125 2,198

Note: Stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

Meat / 215

Notes: Stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

Japanese Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Million Head, January 1)Cattle Inventories 4.83 4.82 4.82 4.86 4.91 4.93 4.90 4.85 4.80 4.77 4.75Wagyu Females 1.15 1.15 1.16 1.20 1.23 1.24 1.21 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.17Dairy Cows 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.14Hog Inventories 9.90 9.75 9.64 9.60 9.59 9.56 9.47 9.37 9.31 9.29 9.28Sow Inventories 0.94 0.91 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.81 0.80 0.79 0.78

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks 128 157 141 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 Imports 903 917 975 1,026 1,039 1,045 1,065 1,120 1,167 1,199 1,201 Production 567 557 556 557 568 583 589 585 576 568 565 Wagyu 249 240 233 233 244 259 265 263 257 253 253 Dairy 319 317 322 324 324 324 324 322 319 315 312 Total Supply 1,598 1,630 1,672 1,710 1,734 1,755 1,781 1,832 1,870 1,894 1,893 Consumption 1,441 1,489 1,545 1,583 1,607 1,628 1,654 1,705 1,743 1,767 1,766 Ending Stocks 157 141 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 127 Total Use 1,598 1,630 1,672 1,710 1,734 1,755 1,781 1,832 1,870 1,894 1,893

Pork Beginning Stocks 175 233 233 223 178 158 138 138 138 138 138 Imports 897 904 927 957 1,014 1,105 1,151 1,167 1,185 1,202 1,224 Production 1,272 1,262 1,265 1,261 1,250 1,231 1,211 1,196 1,189 1,183 1,178 Total Supply 2,344 2,399 2,424 2,440 2,441 2,494 2,499 2,502 2,511 2,523 2,540 Consumption 2,112 2,166 2,202 2,262 2,283 2,357 2,361 2,364 2,374 2,385 2,402 Ending Stocks 233 233 223 178 158 138 138 138 138 138 138 Total Use 2,344 2,399 2,424 2,440 2,441 2,494 2,499 2,502 2,511 2,523 2,540

Poultry Beginning Stocks 111 111 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Imports 544 561 596 629 646 661 682 707 732 753 780 Broiler Imports 533 550 584 616 633 648 669 693 717 738 764 Production 1,251 1,244 1,236 1,227 1,215 1,199 1,181 1,160 1,140 1,121 1,102 Total Supply 1,906 1,917 1,937 1,956 1,961 1,961 1,963 1,967 1,972 1,974 1,982 Consumption 1,792 1,809 1,834 1,853 1,858 1,858 1,860 1,864 1,869 1,871 1,879 Exports 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Broiler Exports 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ending Stocks 111 105 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Total Use 1,906 1,917 1,937 1,956 1,961 1,961 1,963 1,967 1,972 1,974 1,982

Wholesale Prices (Yen per Kilogram) Wagyu Beef 1,605 1,674 1,827 1,842 1,700 1,562 1,514 1,548 1,617 1,671 1,694 Dairy Beef 839 846 888 898 893 890 842 789 761 731 738 Pork 480 481 486 471 448 423 406 400 396 392 390 Broiler 233 230 233 231 227 224 219 216 215 215 215

U.S. Prices with Tariff Beef 226 229 246 256 263 270 255 235 224 213 216 Pork 133 137 119 106 113 121 113 104 112 120 110 Broiler 165 159 157 155 156 156 153 151 150 151 150

Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms) Beef 11.43 11.79 12.20 12.47 12.65 12.78 12.96 13.33 13.60 13.77 13.73 Wagyu 1.99 1.85 1.82 1.83 1.93 2.04 2.07 2.02 1.99 1.95 1.97 Dairy 2.55 2.44 2.52 2.54 2.56 2.56 2.53 2.47 2.46 2.43 2.43 Import 6.89 7.50 7.86 8.11 8.16 8.19 8.36 8.84 9.15 9.38 9.33 Pork 16.74 17.14 17.39 17.83 17.96 18.50 18.50 18.48 18.52 18.58 18.67 Poultry Meat 14.21 14.31 14.49 14.61 14.61 14.59 14.58 14.58 14.59 14.57 14.60Total 42.38 43.24 44.08 44.91 45.22 45.87 46.04 46.40 46.71 46.92 47.00

Note: Pork and poultry stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

216 / Meat

Notes: Pork and poultry stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

Mexican Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,800 1,800 1,743 1,730 1,790 1,876 1,982 2,088 2,175 2,228 2,253 Net Imports 73 107 190 264 283 253 280 329 367 441 490 Total Supply 1,873 1,907 1,933 1,994 2,073 2,129 2,262 2,417 2,542 2,669 2,743 Disappearance 1,873 1,907 1,933 1,994 2,073 2,129 2,262 2,417 2,542 2,669 2,743

Pork Production 890 859 935 986 981 975 1,008 1,055 1,073 1,081 1,118 Net Imports 25 92 120 153 189 209 236 252 251 262 289 Total Supply 915 951 1,056 1,139 1,170 1,184 1,244 1,307 1,325 1,342 1,407 Disappearance 915 951 1,056 1,139 1,170 1,184 1,244 1,307 1,325 1,342 1,407

Broiler Meat Production 1,050 1,105 1,157 1,216 1,281 1,345 1,404 1,461 1,521 1,584 1,646 Net Imports 95 147 178 196 202 207 234 264 286 298 321 Total Supply 1,145 1,252 1,335 1,413 1,483 1,551 1,638 1,725 1,807 1,882 1,967 Disappearance 1,145 1,252 1,335 1,413 1,483 1,551 1,638 1,725 1,807 1,882 1,967

Net Cattle Exports to (Million Head)United States 0.26 0.18 0.21 0.27 0.33 0.40 0.41 0.39 0.35 0.33 0.35


Meat / 217

Notes: Stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

218 / Meat

Chinese Mainland Meat and Egg Supply and Utilization

1,996 1,997 1,998 1,999 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006

(Million Head, January 1)Hog Inventories 441 409 419 428 437 445 452 458 463 467 471

(Million Head)Hog Slaughter 480 498 519 538 556 571 585 597 606 614 622

Beef (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,400 4,667 4,947 5,258 5,591 5,966 6,352 6,744 7,144 7,553 7,971 Consumption 4,299 4,572 4,852 5,163 5,496 5,871 6,257 6,649 7,049 7,458 7,876 Net Exports 101 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95

Pork Production 36,400 37,483 39,288 40,873 42,512 43,791 45,026 46,150 46,948 47,756 48,525 Consumption 36,150 37,235 39,065 40,665 42,307 43,589 44,838 45,970 46,765 47,572 48,351 Net Exports 250 248 223 208 205 203 189 180 182 185 174

Broiler Meat Production 11,000 11,941 12,920 13,911 14,927 15,930 16,931 17,925 18,887 19,832 20,769 Consumption 11,300 12,293 13,304 14,330 15,373 16,409 17,452 18,486 19,484 20,462 21,442 Net Exports -300 -352 -384 -418 -446 -479 -521 -561 -597 -630 -672

Sheep Meat Production 2,200 2,668 2,991 3,212 3,366 3,489 3,582 3,646 3,686 3,705 3,707 Consumption 2,202 2,670 2,993 3,214 3,368 3,491 3,584 3,648 3,688 3,707 3,709

Eggs Production 18,000 18,396 19,069 19,847 20,708 21,537 22,373 23,197 23,957 24,705 25,469 Consumption 17,976 18,379 19,053 19,833 20,695 21,524 22,362 23,187 23,948 24,697 25,461 Net Exports 24 17 16 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 Total Use 18,000 18,396 19,069 19,847 20,708 21,537 22,373 23,197 23,957 24,705 25,469

Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms) Beef 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 Pork 30 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 36 36 37 Broiler Meat 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 16 16 Sheep meat 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total 44 46 49 51 53 55 56 58 59 61 62 Eggs (number - 50g/egg) 290 294 302 311 322 333 343 353 362 371 380

Retail Prices (Yuan per Kilogram) Beef 16 17 18 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Pork 12 14 15 16 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 Broiler 13 15 15 16 17 18 19 19 20 21 21 Sheep Meat 19 19 18 19 21 22 24 26 28 31 33 Eggs 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12

Per Capita (Yuan) Meat Expenditures 582 670 750 847 954 1,069 1,184 1,299 1,417 1,536 1,657

Net Exports (1,000 Metric Tons) Beef 101 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 95 Pork 250 248 223 208 205 203 189 180 182 185 174 Broiler -300 -352 -384 -418 -446 -479 -521 -561 -597 -630 -672

Note: Does not include Hong Kong.

Meat / 219

South Korean Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Beef (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 233 233 233 226 224 230 234 238 241 243 245 Imports 203 230 258 284 311 312 330 357 380 405 411 Total Supply 436 464 491 511 534 542 565 595 621 649 656 Consumption 439 463 481 511 534 542 565 595 621 649 656 Ending stocks 4 5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15

Pork Production 877 864 858 871 883 895 905 907 909 913 917 Imports 45 77 101 120 125 130 146 166 172 178 209 Total Supply 922 942 959 991 1008 1025 1051 1074 1081 1091 1126 Consumption 873 892 910 940 957 973 998 1020 1028 1037 1072 Exports 49 50 51 51 52 52 53 53 54 54 55 Ending stocks 10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

Broiler Meat Production 425 432 448 465 485 507 526 545 564 582 601 Net Imports 42 52 60 66 77 89 100 111 125 137 154 Total Supply 467 484 508 531 562 595 626 656 689 719 755 Consumption 465 485 512 531 562 595 626 656 689 719 755

Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms) Beef 9.54 9.95 10.25 10.77 11.17 11.22 11.59 12.10 12.55 12.99 13.05 Pork 18.97 19.18 19.38 19.83 19.99 20.14 20.48 20.77 20.75 20.76 21.30 Broiler Meat 10.10 10.42 10.91 11.21 11.74 12.33 12.86 13.35 13.90 14.41 15.01 Total 38.61 39.55 40.55 41.81 42.89 43.69 44.92 46.22 47.20 48.16 49.36

Producer Prices (Won per Kilogram, Liveweight) Beef 5,600 5,671 6,281 6,281 6,447 6,778 6,903 6,985 7,217 7,465 7,795 Pork 1,630 1,392 1,423 1,411 1,404 1,441 1,424 1,404 1,429 1,458 1,484 Broiler 1,059 1,263 1,277 1,258 1,327 1,386 1,390 1,384 1,406 1,431 1,459

Wholesale Prices (Won per Kilogram) Broiler 2,480 2,514 2,581 2,581 2,723 2,845 2,855 2,844 2,891 2,944 3,003

Retail Prices (Won per Kilogram) Beef 17,134 15,841 15,923 15,970 16,415 17,258 17,608 17,855 18,467 19,121 19,973 Pork 4,720 4,794 5,018 5,135 5,268 5,522 5,637 5,742 5,985 6,250 6,515

Per Capita (Won) Meat Expenditures 215,332 214,205 224,463 235,296 249,266 264,591 277,177 290,234 307,724 326,567 345,285

Net Imports (1,000 Metric Tons) Beef 203 230 258 284 311 312 330 357 380 405 411 Pork -4 27 50 69 74 78 93 113 119 124 154 Broiler 42 52 60 66 77 89 100 111 125 137 154

Australian Meat Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Beef (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,775 1,794 1,818 1,839 1,863 1,892 1,918 1,928 1,919 1,899 1,875 Imports 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total Supply 1,780 1,799 1,824 1,845 1,869 1,899 1,926 1,937 1,929 1,910 1,887 Consumption 680 683 679 662 648 635 636 637 629 619 598 Exports 1,097 1,104 1,145 1,183 1,221 1,264 1,291 1,300 1,300 1,292 1,289 Ending Stocks 25 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37

Pork Production 337 345 356 368 378 383 387 390 394 399 404 Imports 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total Supply 341 349 361 373 383 388 392 395 399 404 409 Consumption 336 343 355 367 377 382 386 389 393 398 403 Exports 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

Broiler Meat Production 503 522 547 559 571 578 585 591 597 602 609 Consumption 493 510 537 549 561 568 575 581 587 592 599 Exports 10 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Total Use 503 522 547 559 571 578 585 591 597 602 609 Ending Stocks 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Per Capita Consumption (Kilograms) Beef 36.64 36.36 35.74 34.48 33.43 32.45 32.16 31.96 31.26 30.47 29.22 Pork 18.11 18.27 18.68 19.11 19.46 19.53 19.53 19.50 19.54 19.60 19.70 Broiler Meat 26.57 27.18 28.28 28.62 28.94 29.02 29.09 29.13 29.15 29.16 29.25 Sheep Meat 16.22 15.86 15.04 15.06 15.60 15.69 15.49 15.13 14.83 14.48 14.29 Total 97.54 97.67 97.74 97.27 97.43 96.69 96.27 95.72 94.79 93.71 92.45

Producer Prices (Australian Dollars per Kilogram, Carcass Weight) Beef 1.70 1.89 1.98 2.12 2.20 2.21 2.11 2.03 2.07 2.13 2.30 Pork 2.38 2.37 1.96 2.19 2.20 2.24 2.26 2.29 2.33 2.37 2.45

Retail Prices (Australian Dollars per Kilogram) Beef 10.00 10.28 10.70 11.26 11.66 11.91 11.93 12.00 12.30 12.68 13.29 Pork 7.36 7.87 7.52 8.10 8.28 8.50 8.68 8.88 9.11 9.35 9.65 Broiler 2.94 3.19 3.43 3.41 3.52 3.60 3.69 3.78 3.88 4.01 4.12 Lamb 6.63 6.61 6.58 6.67 6.69 6.69 6.66 6.67 6.75 6.88 7.06

Per Capita (Australian Dollars) Meat Expenditures 549 570 578 596 610 615 617 621 628 637 649

Net Exports (1,000 Metric Tons) Beef 1,092 1,099 1,139 1,177 1,215 1,257 1,283 1,291 1,290 1,281 1,277 Broiler 10 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

220 / Meat

Meat / 221

Other Countries' Meat Supply and Utilization

1,996 1,997 1,998 1,999 2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006

Argentine (Million Head, January 1) Cattle Inventories 54 52 51 52 53 53 54 55 55 54 54

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 2,550 2,500 2,447 2,442 2,467 2,513 2,578 2,644 2,666 2,658 2,640 Consumption 2,105 2,022 2,005 1,986 1,974 1,972 2,012 2,061 2,092 2,124 2,129 Net Exports 446 478 440 454 491 539 564 580 571 532 510 Ending Stocks 25 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43

Brazilian (Million Head, January 1) Cattle Inventories 152 153 156 158 161 164 167 169 171 172 173

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 4,960 5,150 5,260 5,378 5,508 5,669 5,863 6,068 6,237 6,364 6,461 Net Exports 215 271 256 252 270 305 302 291 275 219 173 Consumption 4,745 4,879 5,004 5,127 5,238 5,364 5,562 5,777 5,961 6,145 6,287 Ending Stocks 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11

Broiler Meat Production 4,130 4,400 4,594 4,805 5,025 5,243 5,453 5,661 5,873 6,090 6,305 Disappearance 3,600 3,840 4,025 4,205 4,364 4,526 4,698 4,872 5,041 5,205 5,373 Net Exports 530 560 569 601 660 717 755 789 832 885 932

Eastern European (Million Head, January 1) Cattle Inventories 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 Hog Inventories 52 50 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 53 53

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,825 1,795 1,809 1,818 1,833 1,855 1,878 1,905 1,927 1,934 1,942 Disappearance 1,820 1,801 1,802 1,800 1,804 1,819 1,861 1,910 1,945 1,972 1,981 Net Exports 5 -6 7 19 29 36 18 -5 -18 -37 -39

Pork Production 5,197 5,139 5,195 5,222 5,258 5,315 5,375 5,420 5,465 5,524 5,583 Disappearance 5,067 5,039 5,098 5,151 5,193 5,234 5,285 5,336 5,378 5,419 5,471 Net Exports 130 100 97 71 65 81 90 83 87 105 112

Broiler Meat Production 1,005 1,000 1,006 1,013 1,020 1,027 1,032 1,037 1,042 1,048 1,052 Disappearance 1,000 981 984 986 986 987 990 993 994 995 997 Net Exports 5 18 22 27 34 40 42 44 48 53 56

Other Countries' Meat Supply and Utilization (continued)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

China - Hong Kong (1,000 Metric Tons) Pork Net Imports 165 176 189 198 200 201 209 217 218 220 229 Broiler Meat Net Imports 213 222 229 236 242 249 256 264 270 277 284

New Zealand (Million Head, January 1) Cattle Inventories 8.81 9.02 8.98 9.02 9.07 9.14 9.22 9.30 9.37 9.42 9.46

Beef and Veal (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 616 604 617 635 654 674 694 714 734 752 769 Net Exports 502 489 502 520 539 559 576 593 610 626 642 Consumption 114 115 115 115 115 115 118 121 124 126 127 Ending Stocks 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30

Saudi Arabia Broiler Meat Net Imports 290 297 303 308 312 316 322 327 332 336 341

Thailand Broiler Meat Net Exports 165 160 159 160 161 161 161 160 161 161 161

Taiwan Pork Net Exports 362 367 360 348 347 354 355 349 349 357 357

Rest of World Beef Net Imports 1,151 1,460 1,438 1,406 1,377 1,356 1,371 1,409 1,436 1,459 1,460 Pork Net Imports 136 107 95 109 113 107 104 112 118 111 110 Broiler Meat Net Imports 985 969 990 1,009 1,025 1,044 1,066 1,087 1,107 1,126 1,146

Note: In the case of Brazil and Eastern Europe, pork and poultry stock demands are not estimated separately. Consumption and changes in stocks are reported together as disappearance.

222 / Meat

Meat / 223

Per Capita Meat Consumption of Selected Countries

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

United States (Kilogram, Carcass Weight Basis) Beef 44.8 43.8 41.9 40.7 40.0 39.4 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.9 39.4 Pork 28.8 28.6 29.5 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.9 Broilers 36.9 38.3 39.3 40.4 41.8 43.2 44.2 45.1 46.2 47.2 48.5 Total 110.4 110.6 110.7 111.2 111.6 112.2 113.5 114.9 115.6 116.6 117.7

Canada Beef 33.2 34.3 34.0 33.7 33.4 33.2 33.5 33.8 34.0 34.2 34.1 Pork 31.9 32.3 32.5 32.7 32.8 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.0 32.9 31.6 Broilers 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.2 Total 89.9 91.6 91.8 91.9 92.1 92.1 92.6 93.2 93.5 94.0 92.8

European Union Beef 17.6 18.5 18.7 18.6 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.1 Pork 40.1 40.0 40.3 40.5 40.5 40.4 40.3 40.4 40.3 40.3 40.4 Poultry 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.5 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.5 Total 77.7 78.8 79.6 79.9 80.2 80.4 80.6 80.8 80.8 80.9 81.0

Japan Beef - All 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.7 Wagyu 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Dairy 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 Imported 6.9 7.5 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.8 9.1 9.4 9.3 Pork 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.0 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.7 Broiler 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 Total 42.4 43.2 44.1 44.9 45.2 45.9 46.0 46.4 46.7 46.9 47.0

China - Mainland Beef 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.0 Pork 29.7 30.3 31.5 32.5 33.6 34.3 35.0 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.8 Poultry 9.3 10.0 10.7 11.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.3 Lamb 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 Total 44.4 46.3 48.6 50.7 52.8 54.6 56.4 58.0 59.3 60.6 61.9

FSU Beef 18.8 17.8 17.5 17.1 17.4 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.5 19.8 Pork 13.4 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.1 Broiler 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.9 Total 37.5 36.2 36.2 36.2 36.8 37.8 38.7 39.6 40.3 41.1 41.8

Mexico Beef 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.6 20.1 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.1 Pork 9.5 9.7 10.6 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.7 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.4 Broiler 11.9 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.3 Total 40.8 41.9 43.3 44.7 45.7 46.3 48.2 50.2 51.5 52.7 53.8

Australia Beef 36.6 36.4 35.7 34.5 33.4 32.5 32.2 32.0 31.3 30.5 29.2 Pork 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.7 Poultry 26.6 27.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 Lamb 16.2 15.9 15.0 15.1 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.1 14.8 14.5 14.3 Total 97.5 97.7 97.7 97.3 97.4 96.7 96.3 95.7 94.8 93.7 92.5

Korea, South Beef 9.5 10.0 10.3 10.8 11.2 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.0 Pork 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.5 20.8 20.7 20.8 21.3 Poultry 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 Total 38.6 39.6 40.5 41.8 42.9 43.7 44.9 46.2 47.2 48.2 49.4

Argentina Beef 60.1 57.1 56.0 54.8 53.8 53.2 53.7 54.4 54.6 54.8 54.4

Brazil Beef 28.2 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.6 31.8 Broiler 21.4 22.5 23.1 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.8 26.3 26.7 27.2

Dairy Products

226 / Dairy Products

Dairy Products

• World dairy product prices weakened in 1996 from the record levels of the previous year caused mainly by low butterstocks and unanticipated continuation of import demand for butter in the FSU. Consequently, as the markets adjust fromthe shocks, the largest price decline in 1996 was for butter. Cheese price continues to strengthen, but more moderately,due to income-driven global demand. Long-term projections are for butter prices to remain depressed, while cheese andNFD prices increase at 1 to 2 percent annually, after a temporary decline in 1997-98 resulting from overreaction to thehigh prices of 1995-96.

• While FSU, the largest producer as well as importer of butter, is projected to only marginally increase its imports, thedemand from ROW is projected to add 30 to 35 tmt to world imports annually, primarily because of the growing econo-mies of Asia and the Middle East.

• Cheese demand across the world grows with increasing incomes and changing food habits that intensify the share ofconvenience and restaurant meals. This bodes well for cheese consumption. However, dairy expansion and productionpotential within the next decade are primarily limited to the Oceanic countries, as EU is constrained by WTO, and othermajor producers are more affected by high domestic support levels. Also, in the FSU and Eastern European countries,necessary structural adjustments will delay the recovery of production capacity. Such demand growth with limitedproduction possibilities will lead to strengthening of cheese prices by about 2 percent per year.

• Trade of NFD is projected to increase at 25 tmt per year, amounting to 3 percent average annual growth over the next 10years, primarily from food demand growth of low-income countries of Africa and Latin America. Australia, NewZealand, and to a lesser extent, Eastern Europe, will together meet this increasing demand, thus keeping the long-termprice reasonably stable, increasing only marginally from $1,850 in 1997 to a little over $2,000 by 2006.

• Butter and NFD exports are well below WTO limits in the EU. Therefore, as export limits become binding for cheese,more of the industrial milk will be diverted to butter/NFD production. Thus, projections are for increased butter and NFDexports in the long run from EU. High levels of cheese stocks of over 1 mmt have been maintained in the EU because ofthe maturity requirement characteristic of this product. Consequently, only marginal depletion from the current level of1.2 mmt is anticipated over the long run. Stock levels in butter and NFD are expected to increase at 3 to 4 percentannually from the current historically low levels.

• The Canadian dairy policy mix was changed substantially in 1996. A two-tier system of pricing was adopted to enableindustry supported exports of any surpluses from the primarily self-sufficiency targeted production control. Consequently,increasing domestic demand for butterfat, mostly coming from cheese demand and stable NFD demand, will make Canadacontinue as a net exporter of nearly 30 tmt of NFD per year.

• New Zealand responds to the relative strengthening of dairy prices and the vacuum created by WTO-constrained declinein EU’s cheese exports. An annual increase of less than 2 percent in milk production translates into a nearly doubling ofthe current 180 tmt of cheese exports by 2006, thus displacing EU as the largest single net exporter. New Zealand alsoexpands both butter and NFD exports at an annual average of 3 percent and 6 percent.

• Similarly, the stronger prices and worldwide demand will stimulate Australian dairy production, especially that of cheese.Milk production is projected to increase at 3 percent, enabling an additional 20 tmt of cheese production per year, of whichalmost 65 percent will enter the export market. Along with this, an additional 10 tmt of NFD and 5 tmt of butter exportsper year are projected.

Dairy Products / 227

Butter Trade

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Australia 78 84 87 91 96 100 105 109 114 118 123 Canada 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Eastern Europe 6 3 4 5 7 8 10 12 14 16 17 European Union 84 99 120 142 162 180 199 220 240 261 281 New Zealand 270 305 310 313 319 325 331 336 341 345 350 Other Western Europe 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 United States 22 11 17 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19


Net Importers Former Soviet Union 269 272 270 269 269 270 270 274 278 282 286 Japan 2 1 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Mexico 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 Rest of World/Residual 200 238 270 303 336 366 395 423 450 477 503


(U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton)FOB Price N. Europe 1,692 1,661 1,630 1,583 1,577 1,570 1,570 1,585 1,605 1,630 1,656

Cheese Trade

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Australia 94 129 143 154 164 174 183 193 202 210 219 Eastern Europe 8 18 19 21 22 23 23 24 25 26 27 European Union 405 384 363 342 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 New Zealand 180 216 234 254 270 284 298 312 325 338 351 Other Western Europe 48 45 45 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 46


Net Importers Canada 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 Former Soviet Union 88 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 90 90 Japan 160 165 171 177 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 Mexico 20 13 15 16 18 20 23 25 27 29 31 United States 130 132 135 137 140 140 140 140 139 139 139 Rest of World/Residual 327 383 386 386 384 398 412 427 439 452 465




Nonfat Dry Milk Trade

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Net Exporters (1,000 Metric Tons) Australia 167 175 184 194 204 215 226 236 246 257 267 Canada 43 39 33 30 29 26 26 26 27 28 30 Eastern Europe 107 110 114 119 124 129 133 138 143 148 153 European Union 147 117 126 133 137 135 133 139 137 133 128 Former Soviet Union 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 New Zealand 150 204 208 210 214 219 224 226 230 234 238 Other Western Europe 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 21 20 20 United States 36 51 64 68 58 58 58 58 58 58 58


Net Importers Japan 87 97 100 96 92 90 89 89 89 89 89 Mexico 170 159 162 165 165 166 167 169 170 170 170 Rest of World/Residual 420 467 493 516 532 549 567 587 603 620 636




U.S. Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Million Head)Milk Cow Numbers 9.36 9.30 9.24 9.21 9.18 9.13 9.09 9.05 9.01 8.97 8.93

(Metric Tons)Milk Production per Cow 7.48 7.61 7.77 7.91 8.03 8.16 8.29 8.42 8.54 8.67 8.79

(Million Metric Tons)Milk Production 70.06 70.73 71.82 72.83 73.69 74.56 75.33 76.16 76.94 77.75 78.49Fluid Milk Consumption 25.87 25.99 26.09 26.12 26.09 26.12 26.21 26.20 26.23 26.27 26.20Other Disappearance 44.19 44.74 45.73 46.71 47.59 48.43 49.12 49.96 50.71 51.48 52.29

Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 447 452 467 480 488 493 495 504 507 516 526 Beginning Stocks 9 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Imports 3.00 3.03 3.06 3.09 3.12 3.15 3.18 3.22 3.25 3.28 3.31 Total Supply 455 457 472 485 493 497 500 508 512 521 531 Consumption 427 441 450 462 470 474 477 485 489 498 508 Shipments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Exports 25 14 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 Total Use 453 455 470 483 491 496 499 507 511 519 530 Ending Stocks 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5

Cheese Production 3,255 3,323 3,429 3,520 3,610 3,710 3,795 3,883 3,972 4,049 4,123 Beginning Stocks 185 201 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 Imports 155 158 161 164 168 169 169 170 171 172 173 Total Supply 3,596 3,683 3,776 3,870 3,963 4,064 4,150 4,239 4,328 4,406 4,481 Consumption 3,350 3,452 3,545 3,638 3,740 3,830 3,915 4,003 4,092 4,169 4,255 Shipments 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Exports 25 26 27 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Total Use 3,369 3,471 3,564 3,658 3,760 3,850 3,935 4,022 4,111 4,188 4,274 Ending Stocks 201 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 186

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 475 484 502 517 521 518 510 513 508 510 518 Beginning Stocks 39 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 Imports 0 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 Total Supply 514 500 517 533 536 534 526 529 524 526 533 Consumption 459 430 435 447 451 457 449 452 447 449 445 Shipments 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Exports 36 54 68 73 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 Feed, Waste 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Total Use 498 487 505 522 517 524 515 519 513 516 512 Ending Stocks 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16

Prices (U.S. Dollars per Metric Ton) Milk Support 228 225 222 218 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Butter CCC 1,433 1,433 1,433 1,433 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cheese CCC 2,524 2,492 2,459 2,426 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nonfat Dry Milk CCC 2,347 2,308 2,266 2,225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Milk Farm 325 302 298 295 286 286 287 289 288 292 291 Butter Wholesale 2,212 1,772 1,690 1,660 1,674 1,620 1,582 1,545 1,536 1,514 1,500 Cheese Wholesale 3,288 3,076 3,056 3,033 2,950 2,949 2,952 2,975 2,967 3,011 3,002 Nonfat Dry Milk Wholesale 2,693 2,534 2,329 2,248 2,127 2,162 2,267 2,298 2,342 2,325 2,329


Australian Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 139 142 146 150 154 159 163 167 171 176 180 Consumption 57 58 58 58 58 57 57 57 57 57 56 Net Exports 78 84 87 91 96 100 105 109 114 118 123 Total Use 135 142 145 149 153 158 162 166 171 175 179 Ending Stocks 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 23 24

Cheese Production 249 307 323 339 355 371 388 404 420 436 452 Consumption 170 174 179 185 191 198 204 211 218 226 233 Net Exports 94 129 143 154 164 174 183 193 202 210 219 Total Use 264 303 323 339 355 371 388 404 420 436 452 Ending Stocks 44 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 46 46

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 198 210 221 232 242 253 264 275 286 297 308 Consumption 35 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 Net Exports 167 175 184 194 204 215 226 236 246 257 267 Total Use 202 211 221 231 242 253 264 275 286 297 308 Ending Stocks 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11

Casein Production 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 Consumption 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Net Exports 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 Total Use 8 10 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12

Whole Milk Powder Production 108 112 116 119 123 127 131 135 139 142 146 Domestic Use 3 2 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 Net Exports 105 109 112 115 119 123 126 130 133 137 140 Total Use 108 112 116 119 123 127 131 135 139 142 146

Milk Farm Prices (Australian Cents per Liter) Industrial Milk 21 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 Fluid Milk 50 48 49 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

Export Prices (Australian Dollars per Metric Ton) Butter 2,195 2,090 2,036 1,994 1,966 1,944 1,936 1,926 1,924 1,929 1,932 Cheese 3,859 3,678 3,722 3,773 3,807 3,790 3,791 3,791 3,796 3,806 3,820 NFD Powder 2,686 2,493 2,431 2,414 2,436 2,457 2,489 2,471 2,470 2,490 2,521 Casein 7,360 7,077 7,182 7,288 7,343 7,285 7,247 7,210 7,173 7,137 7,111 Whole Milk Powder 2,692 2,566 2,596 2,632 2,656 2,644 2,645 2,645 2,648 2,655 2,665


Canadian Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 89 86 84 83 83 83 83 84 85 86 87 Consumption 85 83 81 80 81 80 80 81 82 83 84 Net Exports 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Ending Stocks 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15

Cheese Production 275 278 283 289 299 309 317 323 336 350 365 Net Imports 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 Total Supply 286 289 294 299 311 320 329 335 349 363 378 Consumption 286 289 294 299 311 320 329 335 349 363 378 Ending Stocks 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 70 65 61 59 58 56 57 57 58 60 62 Consumption 29 29 29 29 30 30 31 31 32 32 33 Net Exports 43 39 33 30 29 26 26 26 27 28 30 Ending Stocks 10 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

(Million Hectoliters)Industrial Market Quota 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 46 47 48 48

Prices (Canadian Dollar per Hectoliter)Industrial Milk Target 54.34 54.54 55.24 56.20 57.15 58.61 60.26 61.69 63.55 65.58 67.35Fluid Milk 65.15 66.19 67.79 69.78 71.77 74.34 76.25 77.92 80.08 82.43 84.50

(Canadian Dollars per Liter)Std. Ontario Milk Retail 1.46 1.49 1.54 1.61 1.67 1.75 1.82 1.87 1.94 2.02 2.09Lowfat Milk Retail 1.32 1.34 1.38 1.42 1.46 1.51 1.56 1.59 1.64 1.69 1.74

(Canadian Dollars per Kilogram)Butter Retail 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.98 5.82 5.61 5.41 5.22 5.02Cheese Retail 12.58 13.16 13.75 14.53 15.11 15.62 16.29 17.03 17.16 17.27 17.33NFD Retail 9.44 9.66 10.01 10.43 10.86 11.42 11.96 12.49 13.13 13.82 14.44

Butter Support 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.32 5.20 5.05 4.90 4.75 4.60Cheese Wholesale 6.66 6.86 7.05 7.30 7.49 7.65 7.86 8.09 8.13 8.16 8.18NFD Support 4.20 4.31 4.48 4.69 4.90 5.17 5.43 5.68 5.98 6.30 6.59


European Union Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 1,742 1,731 1,723 1,728 1,728 1,726 1,723 1,721 1,718 1,716 1,714 Consumption 1,635 1,626 1,601 1,576 1,556 1,536 1,516 1,495 1,473 1,452 1,429 Net Exports 84 99 120 142 162 180 199 220 240 261 281 Ending Stocks 161 167 169 180 190 200 209 215 220 223 226

Cheese Production 5,586 5,613 5,642 5,681 5,716 5,750 5,784 5,819 5,854 5,889 5,925 Consumption 5,213 5,282 5,310 5,343 5,389 5,437 5,484 5,530 5,576 5,620 5,664 Net Exports 405 384 363 342 321 321 321 321 321 321 321 Ending Stocks 1,287 1,233 1,202 1,198 1,204 1,196 1,175 1,142 1,099 1,047 986

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 1,127 1,113 1,102 1,104 1,101 1,096 1,090 1,085 1,079 1,074 1,069 Consumption 982 980 970 959 955 952 948 946 943 941 941 Net Exports 147 117 126 133 137 135 133 139 137 133 128 Ending Stocks 156 172 178 190 199 208 217 217 217 217 217

(Million Metric Tons)Milk Quota 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117

Prices (ECUs per Metric Ton) Milk Target 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 Milk Farm 312 313 313 313 313 314 314 315 316 316 317

Butter Intervention 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 3,283 SMP Intervention 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055 2,055

Butter Producer 3,318 3,340 3,355 3,370 3,388 3,406 3,424 3,443 3,462 3,481 3,500 Cheese Producer 4,203 4,198 4,187 4,174 4,163 4,154 4,147 4,141 4,136 4,133 4,130

Note: Overall guaranteed quantity, April-March.


New Zealand Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 310 363 368 372 376 381 386 391 395 399 403 Consumption 54 55 54 54 54 54 54 53 53 53 53 Net Exports 270 305 310 313 319 325 331 336 341 345 350 Total Use 324 360 364 367 373 379 384 389 394 398 402 Ending Stocks 116 119 123 128 131 133 135 137 138 138 139

Cheese Production 215 247 266 286 303 317 331 345 359 372 385 Consumption 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 Net Exports 180 216 234 254 270 284 298 312 325 338 351 Total Use 210 247 265 285 302 316 330 345 358 371 384 Ending Stocks 50 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 187 221 226 229 232 237 242 245 249 253 256 Consumption 12 14 15 16 15 14 14 15 15 14 14 Net Exports 150 204 208 210 214 219 224 226 230 234 238 Total Use 162 218 222 225 229 233 237 241 245 248 251 Ending Stocks 58 61 65 68 72 76 80 85 89 93 98


Former Soviet Union Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 911 909 923 939 955 971 986 993 1,001 1,010 1,018 Net Imports 269 272 270 269 269 270 270 274 278 282 286 Total Supply 1,180 1,182 1,193 1,208 1,224 1,240 1,256 1,267 1,279 1,291 1,303 Disappearance 1,180 1,182 1,193 1,208 1,224 1,240 1,256 1,267 1,279 1,291 1,303

Cheese Production 400 397 441 485 530 574 618 657 696 735 774 Net Imports 88 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 90 90 Total Supply 488 486 530 574 619 663 707 746 785 824 864 Disappearance 488 486 530 574 619 663 707 746 785 824 864

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 280 275 282 290 297 305 313 319 325 332 338 Net Imports 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Total Supply 280 274 281 289 296 304 311 318 324 330 337 Disappearance 280 274 281 289 296 304 311 318 324 330 337



Japanese Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006




Butter (1,000 Metric Tons) Production 85 84 86 88 91 93 95 96 97 98 99 Net Imports 2 1 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total Supply 87 85 92 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 Consumption 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 100 101 102 Ending Stocks 30 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24

Cheese Production 30 30 30 32 33 34 34 35 36 36 37 Net Imports 160 165 171 177 183 190 197 204 211 218 225 Total Supply 190 194 201 208 215 223 231 239 247 254 262 Consumption 190 194 201 208 215 223 231 239 247 254 262 Ending Stocks 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

Nonfat Dry Milk Production 198 195 200 206 212 217 220 223 226 228 231 Net Imports 87 97 100 96 92 90 89 89 89 89 89 Total Supply 285 293 299 302 305 307 310 312 314 317 319 Consumption 295 297 299 302 305 307 310 312 314 317 319 Ending Stocks 12 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8

(Yen per Metric Ton)Milk Farm Price 83,882 81,166 80,208 79,258 78,485 77,969 77,617 77,345 77,138 76,986 76,820


Other Countries' Dairy Supply and Utilization

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Other Western Europe (1,000 Metric Tons) Butter Net Exports 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 Cheese Net Exports 48 45 45 46 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 NFD Net Exports 27 26 25 24 23 23 22 21 21 20 20

Mexico Butter Net Imports 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 Cheese Net Imports 20 13 15 16 18 20 23 25 27 29 31 NFD Net Imports 170 159 162 165 165 166 167 169 170 170 170

Rest of World Butter Net Imports 200 238 270 303 336 366 395 423 450 477 503 Cheese Net Imports 327 383 386 386 384 398 412 427 439 452 465 NFD Net Imports 420 467 493 516 532 549 567 587 603 620 636


U.S. Agricultural Exports

242 / U.S. Agricultural Exports

U.S. Agricultural Exports

• Although the quantity of U.S. agricultural exports will likely fall in fiscal year 1997 due to a decline in grain exports,they will rebound quickly. The export level is projected to break the 200 mmt mark for the first time in 2005.

• The value of exports will also expand, not only because of increased levels but also because of strong prices for allagricultural commodities. Export value will increase from below $60 billion to above $80 billion by 2006, a 37 percentincrease over the 10-year period. The export of livestock products and feed grains benefit the most from new internationaldemand.

• The value of animals and animal product exports approaches the value of grain exports by the end of the period.

• By 1999, U.S. pork net exports surpass those of the EU, making the United States the world’s largest net exporter of pork.Also, by period end, the United States will be exporting nearly as much beef as Australia, the country that currentlydominates the market.

• Direct feed-grain exports, led by corn, are projected to increase by 30 mmt over the period and reach 80 mmt by 2005.

• The United States also indirectly exports feeds in the form of meat, with feed-grain export equivalents growing byapproximately 12 mmt.

U.S. Agricultural Exports / 243

Quantity of U.S. Agricultural Exports

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(1,000 Metric Tons, Fiscal Year)Total 162,848 153,365 162,377 174,461 181,777 185,063 190,156 194,570 198,482 203,230 208,235

Animals and Animal Products 5,747 6,185 6,783 7,386 7,636 7,772 8,115 8,655 9,007 9,277 9,673

Grains and Feeds 115,899 103,468 111,516 122,327 128,784 131,236 135,003 138,222 141,131 144,862 148,435 Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) 32,720 27,535 29,892 32,663 34,645 34,791 34,936 34,974 35,066 35,081 36,679 Rice (Paddy Milled) 3,101 2,804 2,939 2,759 2,674 2,571 2,509 2,428 2,357 2,314 2,315 Feed Grains and Products 65,700 58,680 63,660 71,269 75,241 77,198 80,346 83,073 85,491 88,710 90,183 Other Grains and Feeds 14,378 14,449 15,026 15,637 16,224 16,676 17,212 17,747 18,217 18,757 19,257

Oilseeds and Products 31,616 34,849 34,548 34,366 34,433 34,831 35,373 35,640 35,938 36,279 36,894Cotton (excl. Linters) 1,601 1,397 1,469 1,517 1,483 1,447 1,440 1,425 1,410 1,393 1,374Other Products 7,986 7,466 8,060 8,865 9,442 9,778 10,225 10,628 10,997 11,419 11,860

Value of U.S. Agricultural Exports

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Million Dollars, Fiscal Year)Total 58,478 57,027 57,500 60,788 63,816 65,768 68,950 71,850 74,435 77,169 80,362

Animals and Animal Products 10,860 12,307 14,221 16,229 17,137 18,009 19,198 20,434 21,231 22,566 23,993 Meat and Meat Products 4,648 5,581 6,951 8,367 8,892 9,356 10,125 10,959 11,336 12,212 13,025 Poultry and Poultry Products 2,659 3,090 3,247 3,437 3,569 3,717 3,946 4,170 4,366 4,515 4,743 Dairy Products 602 501 497 528 533 550 565 579 591 598 607 Hides and Skins 1,498 1,668 1,922 2,147 2,328 2,490 2,585 2,658 2,814 3,009 3,264 Other Animal Products 1,453 1,467 1,604 1,749 1,815 1,897 1,977 2,068 2,125 2,233 2,354

Grains and Feeds 21,584 18,153 17,099 18,199 19,745 20,003 21,130 21,994 22,977 23,513 24,224 Wheat (Unmilled and Flour) 6,500 5,230 4,354 4,666 5,452 5,494 5,845 5,968 5,972 5,979 6,318 Rice (Paddy Milled) 1,157 1,062 1,056 985 950 934 922 904 888 898 929 Feed Grains and Products 9,891 7,881 7,573 8,422 9,090 9,431 10,171 10,728 11,231 12,032 12,458 Corn 8,885 6,913 6,615 7,437 8,061 8,343 9,026 9,531 9,968 10,696 11,062 Other Feed Grains 1,006 969 958 985 1,029 1,088 1,146 1,197 1,262 1,337 1,396 Other Grains and Feeds 4,036 3,979 4,117 4,125 4,253 4,143 4,191 4,395 4,886 4,603 4,519

Oilseeds and Products 9,452 10,735 9,879 9,352 9,347 9,640 9,880 10,101 10,343 10,643 11,133 Soybeans 6,100 6,960 6,301 5,911 5,894 6,043 6,159 6,304 6,460 6,660 6,985 Other Oilseeds and Products 3,352 3,775 3,579 3,441 3,453 3,597 3,721 3,797 3,883 3,983 4,147

Cotton (excl. Linters) 3,075 2,411 2,403 2,428 2,384 2,371 2,397 2,386 2,367 2,349 2,335Other Products 13,506 13,422 13,897 14,580 15,204 15,745 16,344 16,935 17,517 18,098 18,678

244 / U.S. Agricultural Exports

U.S. Agricultural Exports / 245

FAPRI World Agricultural Outlook - Iowa State … World Agricultural Outlook This publication...

Documents

Transcript of FAPRI World Agricultural Outlook - Iowa State … World Agricultural Outlook This publication...