Agricultural Growth Programme - Agri-Learning Ethiopia · Agricultural Growth Programme –...

Agricultural Growth Programme – Agribusiness Marketing and Development Project (AMDe), Ethiopia

MID-TERM EVALUATION REPORT

February 2015

This publication was produced at the request of the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared independently by Tufts University. The authors of the report are John Fox, Amare Ghizaw, Amdissa Teshome and Nigussie Alemayehu.

Agriculture Knowledge, Learning, Documentation and Policy Project (AKLDP), Ethiopia

AgriculturalGrowthProgramme‐AgribusinessandMarketDevelopment(AMDe)Project,EthiopiaEXTERNALMID‐TERMPERFORMANCEEVALUATIONREPORTUSAIDContractNumber:663‐13‐000006AgricultureKnowledge,Learning,DocumentationandPolicy(AKLDP)ProjectImplementedby:FeinsteinInternationalCenterFriedmanSchoolofNutritionScienceandPolicyTuftsUniversityAfricaRegionalOfficePOBox1078AddisAbabaEthiopiaTel:+251(0)11618014www.agri‐learning‐ethiopia.orgDisclaimerTheviewsexpressedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID)ortheUnitedStatesGovernment.

ContentsExecutiveSummary.........................................................................................................................................i 1. Introduction.............................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Ethiopia’sagriculturesector....................................................................................................................1 1.2 FeedtheFutureandAMDeinContext..................................................................................................1 1.3 TheMid‐TermEvaluation..........................................................................................................................2 1.4 Methodology....................................................................................................................................................3

2. EvaluationFindings..............................................................................................................................3 2.1Progressmadeundereachofthefourmajorresults..........................................................................4 Result1:ImprovedCompetitivenessoftheValueChains.....................................................................4 Result2:ImprovedAccesstoFinanceandInvestment.......................................................................10 Result3:ImprovedEnablingEnvironment..............................................................................................11 Result4:StimulateInnovationandInvestment.....................................................................................13

2.2 Improvementsingenderequity...........................................................................................................14 2.3 Improvementsinnutritionaloutcomes............................................................................................15 2.4 Effectiveresourceuse..............................................................................................................................16 2.5 Projectdesignandmanagement..........................................................................................................18 2.6 Sustainability...............................................................................................................................................19 2.7 Management.................................................................................................................................................21

3. Recommendations...............................................................................................................................21 AnnexesAsetofAnnexesweresubmittedasaseparatedocumenttothemainreportasfollows:Annex1StatementofWorkAnnex2EvaluationTeamMembers–CurriculumvitaeAnnex3ConflictofInterestformsAnnex4WorkplanAnnex5BibliographyAnnex6ListofplacesvisitedandpeopleinterviewedAnnex7ToolsusedListofTablesTable1: AverageyieldincreasestoDecember2014Table2: ValueofincrementalsalesattributedtoFTFinterventionsTable3: ProgressagainstindicatorsandLOPtargetsforResult1Table4: Policies,regulations,administrativeproceduresbytheirstagesofdevelopmentTable5: InnovationgrantsawardedbyregionTable6: InnovationgrantsawardedbyvaluechainTable7: Incentive‐basedwomenmembershipdriveTable8: NumberofjobscreatedListofFiguresFigure1: NumberofclientsbenefitingfromfinancialservicesFigure2: BudgetusebyvaluechainFigure3: IllustrationofthecollaborativemechanismsbetweenFTFpartners

AcknowledgementsTheEvaluationTeamwishestothankthestaffoftheAgribusinessandMarketDevelopment(AMDe)Projectforprovidingmonitoringreportsandrelateddocumentation,answeringquestions,arrangingmeetingswithimplementingpartnersandbeneficiariesintheregionsandAddisAbaba,andcommentingonthedraftMid‐TermEvaluationreport.

TheEvaluationTeamalsowishestothankthestaffoftheAgricultureKnowledge,Learning,DocumentationandPolicy(AKLDP)ProjectfortheirinsightsintoEthiopia’sagriculturesectorandtheirsupportinfinalizingtheMid‐TermEvaluationreport.ThanksalsotoTuftsUniversityAfricaRegionalOfficestaffintheAddisAbabaofficefortheirlogisticalandadministrativesupport.Inparticular,theEvaluationTeamwouldliketoexpresstheirthankstoFasilYemane,TsionFisseha,YemiserachWoldearegay,andTewabaKehinet.

TheauthorsaregratefultoAdrianCullis,ChiefofParty,AKLDP,fortechnicaleditingofthedraftreport.

Finally,theEvaluationTeamwishestothankthemanyrepresentativesoffederalandlocalgovernment,theAgricultureTransformationAgency,industryassociations,FederalCooperativeAgency,FarmersCooperativeUnions,PrimaryCooperatives,andsmallholderfarmers—bothmenandwomen—whogaveoftheirtimesofreelytoattendfocusgroupdiscussionsorbeinterviewedindividually.TheirperspectivesonEthiopia’schangingagriculturalsectorandonthecontributionmadebytheAMDeprojecthavebeenofparticularimportanceinthewritingofthisreport.Thiscooperationnotwithstanding,theviewsexpressedinthisMid‐TermEvaluationarethoseoftheEvaluationTeamandanymistakesormisrepresentationsaretheirresponsibilityalone.NoteonEthiopia’sadministrativestructureKebele—thesmallestadministrativeunitinEthiopia.KililorRegion—consistsofanumberofzones;Ethiopiacompriseseightmainregions.Woreda—equivalenttoadistrictinothercountriesandthesecond‐lowesttieroflocalgovernment.Zone—consistsofanumberofworedas.

Acronyms

ACDI/VOCA AgriculturalCooperativeDevelopmentInternational/VolunteerOverseasCooperativeAssociation

AGP AgriculturalGrowthProgramme oftheMinistryofAgricultureAKLDP AgricultureKnowledge,Learning,DocumentationandPolicyProjectAMDe AgribusinessandMarketDevelopmentAMSAP AdvancedMaizeSeedAdoptionProgramATA AgriculturalTransformationAgencyATVETs AgriculturalTrainingforVocationalExtensionTrainersCAADP ComprehensiveAfricaAgricultureDevelopmentProgrammeCASCAPE CapacityBuildingforScalingupofEvidence‐BasedBestPracticesin

AgriculturalProductioninEthiopiaCIAFS CapacitytoImproveAgricultureandFoodSecurityEAB EthiopianApicultureBoardECEA EthiopianCoffeeExportersAssociationECX EthiopianCommodityExchangeEGTE EthiopianGrainTradeEnterpriseEHBPEA EthiopianHoneyandBeeswaxProducersandExportersAssociationEIAR EthiopianInstituteofAgriculturalResearchENGINE EmpoweringNewGenerationstoImproveNutritionandEconomic

OpportunitiesEthiopiaProjectFAO FoodandAgricultureOrganization(UN)FCA FederalCooperativeAgencyFCU FarmersCooperativeUnionFTF FeedtheFutureStrategyoftheUnitedStatesGovernmentGoE GovernmentofEthiopiaGRAD GraduationwithResiliencetoAchieveSustainableDevelopmentHa Hectare(10,000m2)LMD LivestockMarketingDevelopmentLOP LifeofProjectM&E Monitoring&EvaluationMoA MinistryofAgricultureMoI MinistryofIndustryMoT MinistryofTradeMT MetricTonnesMTE Mid‐TermEvaluationM4 Membership,Money,Management,andMarketingAssessmentNGO Non‐governmentalOrganizationPC PrimaryCooperativePIF PolicyInvestmentFrameworkPMP PerformanceManagementPlanPSNP ProductiveSafetyNetProgrammePRIME PastoralistAreasResilienceImprovementthroughMarketingExpansionP4P PurchaseforProgressRuSACCO RuralSavingsandCreditCooperativeSLMP SustainableLandManagementProjectSM4M SellMoreForMore(atrainingmodule)SNNPR SouthernNations,Nationalities,andPeoples’RegionSoW StatementofWorkUSAID UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopmentUSG USGovernmentVC ValueChainWALN WomaninAgribusinessLeadershipNetwork

WASH Water,Sanitation,andHygieneWFP WorldFoodProgramme (UN)ZoI ZonesofInfluence

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ExecutiveSummaryThisExternalMid‐TermEvaluation(MTE)oftheUSAIDEthiopiaMission‐fundedAgriculturalGrowthProgram—AgribusinessandMarketDevelopment(AMDe)Projectwascarriedoutintwophases,NovemberandDecember2014andJanuary2015.TheScopeofWorkwasdevelopedbyUSAIDandaddressedbyateamofthreeconsultants—aninternationalteamleaderandthreelocalconsultants.Duringthereview,theEvaluationTeamvisited26AGPworedasinEthiopia’sfourmainregions,interviewing215individualsfrom66organizationsthatincludedtheMinistryofAgriculture(MoA)—atfederalandlocallevel—localgovernment,industryassociations,privatesectorbusinesses,FarmersCooperativeUnions(FCUs),PrimaryCooperatives(PCs),smallholderfarmers—menandwomen—andAMDestaff.

TheAMDeisfundedthroughUSAIDEthiopia’sFeedtheFuture(FTF)programwithabudgetofUSD50million.1LaunchedinJune2011,theAMDeisfundedforfiveyears,withanenddateofMay2016.ThereviewfindingscovertheperiodfromthelaunchtoDecember31,2014,orthreeandahalfyears.ItisplannedthattheAMDewillreachonemillionsmallholderfarmers.ThisMTEwasdelayedpastthemid‐point,withtheresultthattheAMDehas15monthsofimplementationleftfollowingthesubmissionofthefirstdraftreportinMarch2015.Thisisunfortunate,astheperiodinwhichadjustmentscanbemadeisrathershort.Forthisreason,therecommendationssectionincludesasub‐sectionofrecommendationsforafollow‐onproject.TheAMDeisalignedwiththeMoA’s,AgriculturalGrowthProgram(AGP),2fundedbytheGovernmentofEthiopia(GoE)togetherwiththeWorldBank,Canada,Netherlands,Spain,andtheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)3andsupportedtechnicallybytheAgriculturalTransformationAgency(ATA).4TheAMDeimplementsAGP’sComponent1,sub‐component1.3:MarketandAgribusinessDevelopment.KeyfindingsTheMTEreviewfindingsaregenericandspecific.Atthegenericlevel,theEvaluationTeamwelcomesUSAID’sengagementinEthiopia’shigh‐potentialagricultureareas,includingthatthissupportisalignedwiththeMoA’sAGP.Inthisway,USAIDissupportinggovernmenteffortstobalancedevelopmentinvestmentacrossEthiopia’sthreemainagro‐ecologicalareas:highrainfallareas,lowrainfallareas,andthepastorallowlands.TheAGPisimplementedinEthiopia’shighrainfallareas,whicharedependentonmono‐modalkiremtrains5andasinglemehergrowingseason.

Ethiopiahasmadesubstantialprogressinrecentyears,withpercapitaincomerisingtoUSD570,6and2.5millionpeoplehavebeenliftedoutofpoverty(usingapovertythresholdofUSD1.25perday).Whilethesegainsareimpressive,Ethiopiaremainsoneofthepoorestcountriesintheworld,andpercapitaincomesremainroughlyhalfoftheregionalaverageUSD1,257.Nationalpercapitaincomesarethereforeinthetenlowestglobally.Also,becauseofEthiopia’shighpopulationgrowth,theabsolutenumberofpoorremainsunchangedoverthepast15yearsataround25million.7

1USAIDEthiopia’sFTFportfolioisvaluedataroundUSD270millionoverfiveyears.Itisimplementedin154ZoneofInfluenceworedasthatarehometoanestimated17millionpeople.2TheAGPisimplementedin96woredas(AGP2willbeimplementedin157woredas)andstructured:Component1—Agricultureproductionandcommercialization,withsub‐componentsoninstitutionalstrengtheninganddevelopment,scaling‐upgoodpractice,andmarketandagribusinessdevelopmentComponent2—RuralInfrastructureDevelopmentandManagement,withsub‐componentsonsmall‐scaleagriculturewatermanagementandmarketinfrastructuredevelopment.TheprojectisledbyaCoordinationUnitatfederalandregionallevelsandisguidedbySteeringandTechnicalCommittees.3TheAGPisestimatedtocostaboutUSD265million,ofwhichUSAIDprovides19percentthroughAMDeandLivestockMarketingDevelopment(LMD)projects.4TheATA—AgriculturalTransformationAgency,www.ata.gov.et.5ThesinglekiremtrainsofJunetoSeptemberandtheassociatedmehergrowingseason.6InternationalMonetaryFund2014.7PovertyandGrowthinEthiopia(1995–2011),MinistryofFinanceandEconomicDevelopment,2013.

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TheagriculturesectorplaysacentralroleintheEthiopianeconomy—45percentoftotaloutputand80percentofallexports—andthelivesandlivelihoodsofanestimated13millionsmallholderfarmerandpastoralhouseholds,ornearly80percentofthenationalworkforce.Agriculturegrowthratesoveradecadehavebeenimpressive,8andtheresultismorelandbeingfarmedandincreasesinproductivityperfarmedarea.Productivityincreasesaretheresultofpublicinvestment9—inputs,roads,agricultureextension—andpublicpolicyreformrelatedtolandtenure.Despitetheprogressmade,morewillneedtobedonetostrengthenthecapacityofEthiopia’sextensionservices,buildstrongerlinksbetweenresearchinstitutionsandfarmers,andimproveaccesstoinputs—seeds,fertilizersandagro‐chemicalsforplantprotection.Therearealsobothinfrastructureandpolicy‐relatedchallengesinagriculturemarketing.Finally,despitetheincreaseintheamountoflandundersomeformofirrigation,10Ethiopianagricultureisprimarilyrain‐fedandthereforesubjecttothevagariesoftheweather.

TheAMDewaslaunchedinJune2011andbecamefullyoperationalin2012.TheAMDehasthereforebeenoperationalforthe2012,2013,and2014meherseasons.Withinthesethreeseasonsandthereforelearningcycles,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDehasperformedexceptionallywellinsomeareas,lesswellinothers,andhasyettoaddresssomeissuesthatareofimportance.ProgressineachoftheseareasispresentedinthisMid‐TermEvaluation.Overall,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDehasperformedwellandhasthepotentialtoachieve“highperformance”overtime.Thisisimpressive,withintherelativelyshortperiodofimplementationandEthiopia’sdiverseandcomplexagro‐ecology,farmingsystems,andagriculturesectorinstitutionalandpolicyenvironment.TheEvaluationTeamfindsitofstrategicimportanceforUSAIDtofundafollow‐onphase.

Toacceleratelearning,analysis,anddocumentationandidentifyevidence‐basedgoodpracticethatcanbetakentoscale,theEvaluationTeamfindsthattheFTFZoIshouldbesmallerandmorefocusedandthatAMDeinterventionsshouldbebettersupportedbyotherUSAIDprograms—socialprotection,WASH,nutrition,health,andeducation.Implementedasitis,theEvaluationTeamfindsitunlikelytheAMDewillmakeasignificantcontributiontoFTF’spovertyandstuntingreductionobjectives.TheEvaluationTeamalsofindstheAMDecoulddomuchmoretotargetsmallholderfarmerswithholdingsofonehectareorlessandwomeninagriculture—bothwomen‐headedhouseholdsandwomeninmale‐headedhouseholds—andinthiswaymakeanincreasedcontributiontomeetingFTFoutcomes.

Finally,inthisoverviewsection,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDcouldhaveexercisedstrongerleadershiptocontextualizeFTFindicatorstoEthiopia’sagriculturesectorandagro‐ecology.Thiswasnotdone,withtheresultthatAMDestaffhaswastedconsiderabletimeandresourcesmonitoringandreportingonrathermeaninglessindicators,e.g.,grossmarginsperhectare,valueofincrementalsales,andnumberofhectaresunderimprovedmanagement.Importantlyalso,FTFdoesnotrequirethemonitoringofacontrolgroup,withtheresultthatattributionisunclear.11

Movingtothespecific,theEvaluationTeampresentsitsfindingsunderthequestionsintheSoW.KeyQuestion1:TowhatextentistheAMDeProjectprogressingagainstplannedobjectivesasoutlinedinitsperformancemanagementplanandworkplan?Asmentioned,theEvaluationTeamfindssomeoftheFTFindicatorsrathermeaningless.Forthisreason,progressreportedinthissectionshouldnotbeinterpretedasastatementofAMDe'soverallperformancebutratherprogressagainstthecurrentindicators.

8Officialfiguresrecordagriculturegrowthratesofaround8percent.9Ethiopiaisinvestinganestimated16percentofitsnationalbudgetinagricultureandhasthereforeexceededtheCAADPinvestmenttargetof10percent.AconsiderableproportionofthisinvestmentisthroughtheProductiveSafetyNetProgramme.10EstimatedbytheMoAtobearoundtwomillionhectares,or16percentoftotalcultivatedlandalthoughaconsiderableproportionisallocatedtosugar.11USAIDconfirmsthatanend‐of‐projectevaluationisplanned.Whilethisiswelcomed,theEvaluationTeamconsidersstatisticallysignificantimpactsunlikelyintherelativelymodestperiodofAMDeimplementation.

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Result1:ImprovedCompetitivenessoftheValueChainsForResult1,theAMDetracks13indicatorswithprogressrecordedbyvaluechain.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthat21percentofthevaluechain‐relatedtargetshavebeenfullyachieved,20percentareverylikelytobeachieved,14percentarelikelytobeachievedwithfocusedadditionalsupport,and45percentarethoughtunlikelytobeachieved.Forexample: Thenumberofhectaresundernewtechnology(indicator#1)againstLOPtargetsacross

allcrop‐basedvaluechainsislow.Thissaid,LOPtargetsaremodest,e.g.,thetargetforwheatis12,000ha,andtheseLOPtargetsmaywellbeachievedthroughthecumulativeeffectofAMDefundinginseed,fertilizer,andequipment.

Thenumbersoffarmersbenefitingfromaccesstonewtechnology—seed,fertilizer,andtraining—(indicator#3)againstLOPtargetsarevariable.Forexample,thenumberofbeneficiaryfarmersinthecoffeeandsesamevaluechainshasbeenachieved;thenumberoffarmersinthemaizevaluechainsis57percentoftheLOPtargetandmaybeachieved;butitisunlikelythenumberoffarmersforthewheat,chickpeas,andhoneyvaluechainswillbemet.

Theincreasedvalueofimprovedproductivityandproduction(indicator#4)appearstobeprogressingwell,butcontrastswithprogressreportedunderindicator#1.Asthetwoindicatorsarelinked—thenumberofhectaresunderimprovedmanagementcontributestoincreasedproductivity—theprogressreportedwillneedtobereviewed.

Thevalueofincrementalsales(indicator#6)is96percentoftheLOPtargetandislikelytobeexceeded.

Thevalueofexports(indicator#10)is62percentoftheLOPtargetandmaybemet.Result2:ImprovedAccesstoFinanceandInvestmentSpecifically: Thevalueofagriculturalandruralloanstarget(indicator#14)hasbeenexceeded. Thenumberofclientsbenefittingfromfinancialservices(indicator#18)is60percentof

theLOPtargetandmaybemet.Result3:ImprovedEnablingEnvironmentForexample: Thesevenpolicies/regulations/administrativeprocedurestargetsareprogressing:Stage1:Analyzed(seventargetsmet)Stage2:Draftedandpresentedforpublic/stakeholderconsultation(fourtargetsmet)Stage3:Presentedforlegislation/decree(twotargetsmet)Stage4:Passed/approved(twotargetsmet)Stage5:Passedforwhichimplementationhasstarted(zerotargetsmet)

TheEvaluationTeamfindstheprocessassociatedwiththeselectionofthesevenpolicyissuestoberobust,includingtheengagementofmulti‐sectoralplatforms.However,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedthatsomeoftheselectedpolicytargetsappeartoduplicatepolicychangetowhichtheMoAisalreadycommittedthroughtheAgricultureSectorPolicyInvestmentFramework(2010–2020),whileothersappearoverlyoptimistic.TheEvaluationTeamalsofindsthatFTFpolicyworkcouldhavebeenbettercoordinated.Result4:StimulateInnovationandInvestmentForexample:

TheAMDehasdisbursedUSD11.6oftheplannedLOPtargetofUSD14.2million(indicator#22)andisthereforewellontracktomeettheLOPtarget.

KeyQuestion2:Towhatextenthasthisprojectcontributedtogenderequityintermsofaccesstocredit,capacity‐buildingsupport,improvedinputsandtechnologiesresultinginanincreaseinsalesofagriculturalcommodities?Arethereevidencessupportingpositivechangesintheaforementionedareas?

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TheAMDelaunchedtheWomeninAgribusinessLeadershipNetwork(WALN)12in2014andinthesameyearlaunchedawomenmembershipdrivewiththeFCAresultinginanadditional78,000members(notallnew).AsrecommendedbytheAMDebehaviorchangeimplementingpartner,themembershipdrivewassupportedbysmallincentives.Whilerespectingthevalueofthisapproach,theEvaluationTeamfindsthecontinueduseofincentivestobeunsustainable.TheEvaluationTeamhoweverfindsbothoftheseinterventionstobeverypositive.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDgaveinadequateattentiontogenderintheAMDedesignphase,asfouroftheoriginalfivevaluechains13haveastrongexportfocus.Whiletheimportanceofincreasingagricultureexportsisrecognizedasanationalpriority,theEvaluationTeamisremindedthatFTFfundinghasclearpovertyandunder‐nutritionreductiondevelopmentobjectivesandthereforethatFTFimplementingpartnersarerequiredtoaddresspovertyreduction,includingthroughgenderequityandwomenempowermentapproaches.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDmighthavegivenmoreconsiderationtothefactthattheagricultureexportsectorisdominatedbymenandthatincreasedemphasiscouldthereforehavebeengiventovaluechaindevelopmentfordomesticmarketsandthustowomensmallholders,traders,andagro‐processors.USAIDalsodidnotdesignatespecificfundstosupportastronggenderequitycomponent.KeyQuestion3:WhathasbeenAMDe’scontributiontotheimprovementofnutritionalstatusofwomenandchildren?Whatistheevidence?StuntinglevelsinEthiopia,includinginAGPworedas,areamongthehighestintheworldand,asmentioned,acceleratedstuntingreductionisoneoftwoFTFdevelopmentobjectives.Thissaid,nutritionwasnotpartoftheoriginaldesignandnutritiontargetswere“bolted‐on”duringAMDe’sfirstyearofimplementation.Itisperhapsnotsurprisingthatprogressonnutritionismixed:ontheonehand,AMDehascontributedtoimprovednutritionoutcomesthroughthechickpeavaluechaindevelopmentandlaunchofthreechickpeashiro(alocalsauce)products;14ontheotherhand,thenutritioncascadetraining15appearstohaveachievedlittlethatwillbesustainedafterthelifeoftheproject.

Therefore,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatagribusinessandmarketdevelopmentprojectsofferfewrealopportunitiestocontributetoimprovednutritionoutcomes,asopportunitiesfornutrition‐sensitiveagricultureareminimalunlesstheyareanintegralpartofthedesignphaseandlinkedtoawell‐fundedandsupportedagriculturesectorproductionandproductivitycomponent.KeyQuestion4:Whatistheimpactoftheresourcesspent(financialandhuman)andperformancepervaluechain?Whatistherelativevaluegeneratedintermsofproductivityandincomeincrease,employmentgenerationpervaluechaintoresourcesspent?Whichvaluechainshavethehighestreturnsperdollarspent?TheAMDemonitoringappearsweakandattimesprogressreportslackconsistencyandrigor.AssomeofthedatasetslackedconsistencyandUSAIDhadconducteditsown“CostBenefitAnalysis”studyacrossFTFvaluechainsin2014thatprovidedaperformanceranking,theEvaluationTeamdidnotaddressthisquestionindetail.16Inordertoaddressthisquestionfully,theAMDewillneedtocompleteadatacleaningandverificationexercise.

12ThenetworkhasreceivednationalrecognitionthroughtheJanuary2015NationalConferencethatwasattendedbymorethan100womenentrepreneurs.13USAIDaddedthechickpeavaluechaininthefirstyearofimplementation.14ThroughGUTSAgro‐Industry.15Thecascadetrainingwassupportedwithnutritiontrainingposters,trainingmanuals,acookbook,andothermaterials,whichhavebeenusedbyotherprojects.16ItmaybethatUSAID’sDataQualityAssessment(DQA)teamcouldhelpaddresstheissueofdataconsistency.However,toaddresstheissueofrigorandimpact,mentionhasbeenmadeoftheneedtoundertakemoredetailedstudiesthatincludecontrolgroups.

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KeyQuestion5:WhichamongthefollowingAMDe’spartnershipshavebeenthemosteffectiveintermsoftheircollaborationandcoordinationtoimplementAGP‐AMDe?Whichoneshavebeentheleasteffective?Inbothcases,whatiscontributingtothesepartnerships’successandchallenges?TheAMDeworkswithanimpressiverangeofstakeholders:MoA/regionalBureausofAgriculture,MinistryofTrade(MoT),ATA,FederalandRegionalCooperativeAgencies(FCA/RCA),EthiopianInstituteofAgricultureResearch(EIAR)andIndustryAssociations.17TheAMDealsoworkseffectivelywithprivatesectororganizations,internationalandlocalNGOs,andotherFTFimplementingpartners.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthattheAMDe’sstrongestpartnershipsarewiththeMoA/regionalBureauofAgriculutreBoAAGP,ATA,FCA/RCA,andMoTExportPromotionDirectoratewithwhichitsharesacommonvisionforagribusinessdevelopmentandtheassociatedgrowthofcooperatives.Atanoperationallevel,theAMDeannualworkplansarereviewedandendorsedbyregionalandfederalAGPTechnicalCommittees.Inaddition,USAID,ATA,andAMDehaveforgedatripartitecoordinationplanwithassignedactivityfocalpoints.AlthoughAMDeisdevelopingeffectivepartnerships,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatitwilltaketimebeforeUSAIDandAMDeplayafullandcentralroleinAGPdecision‐making.Inpart,thiscanbeattributedtoorganizationaldifferences—donor‐government,culture,andsalaryandrelatedincentivestructures.TheEvaluationTeamalsorecognizeschallengesassociatedwithUSAID’sparallelfundingarrangementtothepooledAGPfund.Whilerecognizingthechallenges,theEvaluationTeamalsofindsthatparallelfundingoffersopportunitiesforinnovationandtheidentificationofemerginggoodpracticethatcaninformAGPplanningandoperations.ThishasalreadyhappenedwithinthecontextofAMDeandotherFTFprojects.18

Ethiopia’scooperativemovementaggregatesandmarketslessthan10percentofEthiopia’scereals,19withsmall‐scaleprivatesectortradersplayingthemajorroleincerealaggregation,transport,marketing,andprocessing.WhiletheAMDeworkswellwithindustryassociationsandsome500privatesectoractors,commercialfarmers,serviceproviders,traders,andprocessors,theEvaluationTeamfindsthat,inordertoaddresslong‐termissuesofsustainability,theAMDewillneedtoachieveabetterbalanceofsupportbetweencooperativesandprivatesectoractors,withaparticularemphasisonsmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.20

TheEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDeworkswellwithotherFTFimplementingpartnersatfederalandregionallevels,butastheAMDedeploysfewfieldstaffatworedalevel,thequalityofpartnershipinevitablytailsoffatworedaandcommunitylevel.TheEvaluationTeamhoweverfindsthatUSAIDcouldhavedonemoretoforgeacoordinatedandbetter‐integratedFTFportfolio,includingthatwherepossibleUSAIDimplementingpartnerssupportthesamecommunities,andtheopportunityforsynergyismaximized.KeyQuestion6:Whichofthecomponentsand/orprojectactivitiescaneasilybescaledupinthefuturebasedonmeasurable,practical,andsustainableresults?TheAMDeiswellestablishedinthefourAGPregionsandacrossthesixvaluechains.InviewoftheAMDe’sstrongmarketingfocus,theEvaluationTeamalsofindsthattheprojectisdoingimportantandstrategicworktoaddressproductivityissuesthroughitsimprovedseeds,blendedfertilizers,andcropprotectionworkthatissupportiveofotherAGPsub‐components.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsAMDe'strainingandcapacity‐buildingworkonpost‐harvestmanagement(threshing,winnowing,cleaning,storage,andpestcontrol),aggregation,andthemarketingofagriculturalsurplusestobeofprimaryimportance,inparticularwherethe

17EthiopiaApicultureBoard,EthiopiaHoneyandBeeswaxProducersandExportersAssociation,EthiopiaPulsesOilSeedsandSpicesProcessersandExportersAssociation,andtheEthiopiaCoffeeExportersAssociation.18Engine—mainstreamingapproachesinnutritionandGRAD—mainstreamingvillagesavingsandloansapproaches.19Cerealsaccountformorethan60percentofallarablecroppinginEthiopia.20TheAMDepointsoutthatcooperativemembershipcanhelpsmallholderswithaccesstoinputs,information,training,andfinanceandthatthegovernmentiscommittedtoincreasetheeffectivenessandmarketingandcapacityofcooperatives.TheAMDealsonotesitsM4CapacityAssessmentcarriedoutinsummer2014documentedincreasedcapacityinhalfthecooperativeunions.

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beneficiariesarepoorersmallholderfarmers—withlessthanoneha—andthereforeplannedFTFbeneficiaries.TheEvaluationTeamisalsoinformedbylessonslearnedbytheAGPthatone‐off,short‐termtraininghaslimitedimpact.21Learningfromthis,theAMDeshouldreviewitstrainingandcapacity‐buildingworkandchannelresourcestofewerPCs,FCUs,22andprivatesectorpartnersinorderthatalltrainingscanbesupportedbyfollow‐upvisits,impactassessments,and,asappropriate,refreshertraining.

TheEvaluationTeamlearnedthatcereal,honey,andsomepulsepricesaretypicallyhigherinEthiopiathanontheinternationalmarkets.23Whilerecognizingthatincreasingagricultureexportsisanationalpriority,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedthatAMDe’sfocusonexportsmaywellultimatelybenefitlargercommercialfarmersmorethanthesmallerandpoorerfarmerswhoareFTFprimaryplannedbeneficiaries.TheEvaluationTeamthereforefindsthatadditionalconsiderationcouldbegiventodevelopingvaluechainsfordomesticmarkets,whicharemoreaccessibletopoorersmallholdersandPCUs,astheyobviatetheneedforachievingexportstandardproduction,aggregation,cleaning,andmarketing.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDebusinessmanagementtrainingsupportforcooperativestobeeffective,inparticularwhereitisintegratedintobroadercapacity‐buildingwork.TheEvaluationTeamalsofindsthisworkcouldbemainstreamedthroughtheArdaitaCooperativeATVET,24OromiaRegion,whichprovidessimilartrainingandcapacity‐buildingsupporttoPCsandFCUsinthatpartofOromia.BypartneringwithArdaita—includingasappropriatetheAMDeinvestingfurtherincapacitybuildingofArdaitaitself—theAMDecanminimizeduplicationandaddresssustainabilityissues.25

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDe’sgrantworkiswidelyappreciated.GrantshavehassupportedtheconstructionofEthiopia’sfirstblendedfertilizerplant,warehouses,andimprovedinputsupply.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatthegrantworkshouldbecontinued,withanincreasedfocusonsmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.TheEvaluationTeamhaslearnedthattheAMDesupporttoFCUsforwarehouseconstructionhasbeenreplicatedandthatitisproposedthattheAGP2willconstruct135additionalwarehouses,storage,andgradingfacilities.26TheEvaluationTeamfindsthattheAMDeshouldcompleteitsexistingcommitmentsandthereafterdisengagefromfundingwarehouseconstruction.

TheEvaluationTeamrecognizestheAMDe’ssupporttocooperativestoimprovecreditratingsandsecureloansfrombanksandRuralSavingsandCreditCooperatives(RuSACCOs).TheAMDeissupportingWorldFoodProgramme’s(WFP)P4Pinitiativethroughthedeliveryof32,898mtofmaizefrom13FCUs.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthisapositiveintervention,asmaizefarmgatepricesarevolatile.Toaddresstheissuesofvolatilitysustainably,however,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDe'smaizemarketingsupportforsmall‐andmedium‐sizedprivatesectortradersshouldbecontinued.KeyQuestion7:Giventhefindingsabove,doestheProjecthavetherightbalanceofstaffandfunding?Isthereanappropriatebalancebetweentheresources(staffandbudget),theirmanagement,andtheactivitiestheprojectintendstoaccomplish?TheAMDeemploys81full‐timestaffand19part‐timeorpooledstaff(64menand36women).ThepooledstaffincludestheDeputyChiefofPartyOperationsandseniorfinance,HR,administration,andsupportstaffwhoaresharedwithotherACDI/VOCAprojects(AMDefunds70percentofthesestaffsalaries).TheEvaluationTeamfindstherelationshipbetweenAMDeandsomeofthepooledstaffisunclearandwouldbenefitfromclarification.

21WorldBank,2015.22Perhapsasfewas50FCUs.23Thepriceofwheat,forexample,inEthiopiaatthetimeoftheMTEwasnearlytwiceworldprices.Thedomesticpriceofhoneywasalsoconsiderablyhigherthanthepriceontheworldmarket.24TheCooperativeSectorDevelopmentStrategy(FCA,2012),developedwiththesupportofATA,identifiesArdaitaasapotential“centerofexcellence”forcooperativedevelopment.Whilenotcentrallylocated,itisplannedthatthecenterwillestablishbranchesinotherregionsandoperateasa“collegewithoutwalls.”25DuringtheEvaluationTeam’svisittoArdaita,itwaslearnedthattheAMDehadvisitedoncebutwithoutfollow‐up.26WorldBank,2015.

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AlmosthalfoftheAMDe'sstaffisbasedinAddisAbaba.27Inordertoconsolidateprogressandensuresustainability,increasedattentionneedstobegiventostaffAMDe'sworkintheregions.RecommendationsRecommendationforResult1#1:TheAMDecontinuestoworkonthesixvaluechainsinordernottodisruptprojectimplementationduringtheremainderoftheproject,butgivesincreasedfocustoincompleteResults: Wheat—productivityandvalueadditionthroughprocessing Maize—productivity,includingopenpollinatedvarieties,improvedpost‐harvesthandling,cleaning,storage,anddiversifyingdomesticmarketoutlets

Coffee—post‐harvestlossreductionandqualitystandards Sesame—post‐harvestlossreductionandprocessing Chickpeas—domesticandnichemarkets(Sudan,forexample)forthecurrentlyusedvarieties

Honey—productionandproductivitythroughthedistributionofimprovedequipment,includingmodernbeehivesandtrainingandequippingofbeekeepersandnewbeekeepers

RecommendationforResult2#2:ContinueandstrengthenAMDe'sengagementinagriculturesectorfinance,inparticularcapacitybuildingforcooperativesandsmall‐scaleprivatebusinessestodevelopbusinessplans,28negotiatewithbanks,andimproveaccountingandauditingsystems,butwithafocusonfewerpartners.RecommendationforResult3#3:RecognizetheneedtoworkmorecloselywithotherFTFimplementingpartnersincludingtheAKLDP.29WithFTFpartners,forgeacommon,integrated,andcoordinatedapproachtoagriculturesectorpolicywork.RecommendationforResult4#4:Reducethefocusongrantsfornewpartnersandconsolidatethecapacityofexistingpartnerstoimproveimpactandsustainability.Recommendationsforgenderequity#5:Continuetosupportwomenempowerment,includingwomenmembershipofcooperatives—thoughdiscontinuetheuseofincentives—andWALN,withincreasedemphasisonwomen‐ledfamilyagribusinessesintheregions.Setasidefundingforgenderequitywork.#6:DocumentAMDe’sworkwithwomeninTigrayandSNNPRegionsandsharewithFTFprojectswithinandbeyondEthiopia.Recommendationfornutrition#7:HandoverthenutritionworktoENGINE.Recommendationsforimprovedcollaboration#8:Continuetostrengthenpartnershipswithkeystakeholders,inparticularregionalBoAAGPteams,ATAAgricultureCommercializationClusters,andRegionalCooperativeandIndustryAssociationOfficestoacceleratetrainingandcapacitybuildingofregional,zonal,andworeda 27ThisfigureincludesAMDe’sOromiaRegionstaffwhoarebasedinAddis,astheirregionalcounterpartsintheOromiaBureauofAgriculturearebasedinAddis.28ThebusinessplanspreparedjointlybyFCUsandAMDeareofahighquality.Forexample,theSidamaEltoFCUbusinessplansecuredloansofEthBirr7.6millionin2013,EthBirr14.4millionin2014,andEthBirr6.35millionin2015.29TheAKLDPprojectprovidesagricultureknowledge,learning,andpolicysupporttoUSAID’sFTFportfolio.

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staffinagriculturemarketingthatincludescomponentsontheprivatesectoranditspotentialroleintransformingEthiopianagriculture.Ensurethatalltrainingandcapacitybuildingisfocusedandanintegralpartofaholisticcapacity‐buildingapproach.#9:CollaboratewithATAandFederalCooperativeAgency(FCA)todevelopasinglePC/FCUCertificationsystemthatintegratesandharmonizesaccreditationcriteria.Recommendationsforscalingup#10:SupporttheMoAandATAtoimproveproductivitythroughtheimproveddistributionofcertifiedseeds(withaminimum60percentopenpollinatedvarieties),blendedfertilizer,credit,andextensionsupport.#11:ContinuetosupporttheWFP‐P4Pinitiativebutcontinuetostrengthenanddeveloplinksbetweensmallholderfarmergroupsandresponsibleprivatesectortraders.Recommendationsformanagement#12:RecruitanorganizationalchangeexperttoreorientateAMDestaffing,specificallyincreasedsupportfor:farmerlevelproductionandproductivity;30domesticmarketdevelopment;andgender.ClarifytheresponsibilitiesoftheAMDeandACDI/VOCApooledstaffandasappropriatemovestafftotheregions.#13:RecruitanM&EspecialisttoimproveAMDeM&Ecapacity.Ensureallprojectdataarecleanedandthatincreasedconsiderationisgiventoprojectoutcomesandattribution,aheadofthefinalevaluation.#14:StrengthenAMDe’scapacitydevelopmentworkto15percentoftheYear5projectbudgettobuildthecapacityofpriorityPCsandFCUsandbetterequipthemtocontinueworkstartedwithAMDe.Tosupportthisreorientation,completeallwarehouseconstruction‐relatedcommitmentsandsubsequentlydisengagefromwarehouseconstruction.#15:IncluderepresentativesfromtheMoAandpossiblytheMoTandMoIinthefinalevaluation.Generalrecommendationsforafollow‐onprojectTheEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDprovidefollow‐onfundingforaminimumofanotherfiveyearsandthereforewelcomesUSAID’scommitmenttofundAGPComponent4:AgricultureMarketingandValueChains,sub‐componentd—strengtheningofselectedlivestockandcropvaluechains.Whilewelcomingthiscommitment,theEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDsupportforAGPbemorefocusedtoachieveFTFdevelopmentobjectives;specificallythatafollow‐onprogramoperateinasmallerZoIandwithfewerpartners.WithintheseZoI,itisrecommendedthat,inadditiontocontinuingtosupportagriculturemarketing,significantincreasedemphasisisgivento:smallholderswithholdingsoflessthanonehectare—perhaps70percentofplannedprojectbeneficiaries;sustainableagricultureproductionandproductivity,includingsoilhealth,landmanagement,andlandtenure;womeninagriculture—women‐headedandwomeninmale‐headedhouseholds;andtheprivatesector,inparticularsmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.Inaddition,theEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDprovidebetterlayeredandsequencedsupportwithinitsZoI,includingsocialprotection,WASH,nutrition,health,andeducation,andthat,throughthisintegratedandcoordinatedapproach,USAIDplayaleadroleinpovertyandstuntingreductionthatwillbereplicatedbyothers.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDshouldexerciseincreasedleadershiptocontextualizeglobalFTFindicatorsandguideFTFimplementingpartnerstokeyindicatorsthatwilltrackprogresstoaddressEthiopia’spovertyandstuntingchallenges.Specificrecommendationsforafollow‐onprojectinclude:#16:Re‐orientatethevaluechains:handoffcoffeeandwheattotheindustryassociationsandotherdevelopmentpartners,includingasappropriatetheEU,aUSAID‐fundedinnovationlab

30TheEvaluationTeamiskeentoseethattheUSAIDEthiopiaMissionstrengthensitssupportofproductionandproductivityandthereforeachievesamorebalancedagriculturesectorportfolio.TheEvaluationTeamisoftheviewthattheMissionisatpresenttoomarket‐focused.

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projectholder,andATA;buildamoreintegratedapproachtocerealvaluechainsthatincludesmaize,31maltbarley,andsorghum—grownbylargenumbersofpoorersmallholders;expandthehoneyvaluechain—assistinglargernumbersofpoorwomenwithlittleornoland;andintegratechickpeasintoalegumes/pulsesvaluechainfordomesticmarkets—legumesofferimportantsoilhealthandnutritionoutcomes.USAIDcouldthereforesupportthefollowingvaluechains: Cereals—maize,maltbarley,andsorghum Honey—fordomesticmarkets(withanemphasisonwomen) Legumes—fordomesticmarkets

#17:Ensurethatcapacitybuilding,institutionaldevelopment,andgenderarekeycomponentsofafollow‐onproject,areappropriatelyfunded,andaredeliveredwithinaholisticcapacity‐buildingapproach.#18:Reducemanagerialcomplexity—sub‐contracttheproductivity,valuechaindevelopment,aggregation,anddomesticmarketdevelopmentcomponentstospecialistNGOswithaproventrackrecordinEthiopia.Theprojectholdercanthenbetterfocusonmanagement,coordination,monitoring(datacollection,collation,analysis,documentation),learningandchampioningevidence‐basedgoodpractice,includingwithAGP2.Thefollow‐onprojectwouldbeexpectedtoleaveEthiopianinstitutes,organizations,andbusinessesbetterequippedtoleadthetransformationprocessofEthiopianagriculture.

31Withafocusonopenpollinatedvarieties.

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1. Introduction1.1 Ethiopia’sagriculturesectorEthiopiahasmadesubstantialprogressinrecentyears,withpercapitaincomerisingtoUSD570.1Twoandahalfmillionpeoplehavebeenliftedoutofpoverty(usingapovertylineofUSD1.25perday).Whilethisprogressisimpressive,Ethiopiaremainsoneofthepoorestcountriesinworld;percapitaincomesareroughlyhalftheregionalaverageofUSD1,257andamongstthetenlowestinternationally.AsaresultofEthiopia’shighpopulationgrowth,theabsolutenumberofpoorremainsunchangedoverthepast15yearsatabout25million2despiteconcertedeffortstoreducethisnumber.

TheagriculturesectorcontinuestoplayacentralroleintheEthiopianeconomy—45percentoftotaloutputand80percentofallexports3—andthelivesandlivelihoodsofanestimated13millionsmallholderfarmerandpastoralhouseholds,whichisnearly80percentofallemployment.4Ethiopianagriculturecanbecharacterizedunderthreebroadrainfallregimes:highrainfall,moderaterainfall,andthepastorallowlands.TheAGPworedasareconcentratedinthehighrainfallbeltofwesternEthiopiaandareprimarilydependentonthekiremtrainsofJunetoSeptemberandtheassociatedsinglemehergrowingseason.Theprincipalcropsinclude:cereals,pulses,oilseeds,coffee,roots,andtubers—potatoes,sweetpotatoes,cassava,othervegetables,andsugarcane.Growthratesofallcropshavebeenimpressiveoverthelastdecade,duetoacombinationofmorelandbeingfarmed5andincreasesinproductivityperfarmedarea.Productivityincreasesareprimarilytheresultofpublicinvestment,whichis16percentofthenationalbudgetandconsiderablymorethantheCAADP‐recommended10percentbench‐mark.6Investmenthasresultedinimprovedaccesstoinputs,ruralroads,expandedagricultureextensionservices,andpolicyreform,includingcertificationoflandholdings.

Despitetheimpressivelevelofinvestment,moreneedstobedonetoincreasethecapacityoftheextensionservices,includingtoworkacrossdifferentagro‐ecologicalzonesandtostrengthenthelinkbetweenresearchinstitutionsandfarmers.7Progressalsoneedstobemadetowardsimprovingsmallholderfarmeraccesstoinputs—seeds,8fertilizers,andagro‐chemicalsforplantprotection—includingopeningupnewdistributionnetworksthroughsmallagribusinessdealersthatwilladdressthecurrentover‐dependenceoncooperatives.Itisalsowidelyrecognizedthattherearechallengestomarketingthatrelatetopoormarketinfrastructure—aggregationandstorageandmarketcenters—andtradepolicyissuesrelatedtobothdomesticandexportmarkets.Finallyinthissection,despitetheincreaseintheamountoflandundersomeformofirrigation,9Ethiopianagricultureisprimarilyrain‐fedandthereforesubjecttothevagariesoftheweather.1.2 FeedtheFutureandAMDeinContextInformedbytheGrowthandTransformationPlan,2010–2015(GTP),10theMoAlaunchedthePolicyandInvestmentFramework(PIF)2010–2020.11TheAgricultureGrowthProgram(AGP)waslaunchedasa“flagship”projectin2010toincreaseagriculturalproductivityandmarketperformanceofselectedcropandlivestockvaluechainsin96high‐growthworedasinAmhara,

1InternationalMonetaryFund2014.2PovertyandGrowthinEthiopia(1995–2011),MinistryofFinanceandEconomicDevelopment,2013.3Agricultureexportsincludecoffee,oilseeds,somepulses,andlivestock.4AGPProjectAppraisalDocument,September2010,WorldBank.5Largeareasofcommunalgrazinghavebeenputtotheploughinrecentyears.6ThePSNPis,however,thelargest‐fundedgovernmentprogram,andmostoftheinvestmentisintheformoffoodandcashpayments.7SomeuniversitiesnowrequireMScstudentstoundertakeactionresearchwithsmallholdersinthevicinity.8Inparticular,certifiedseedofthecropsandvarietiesthattheypreferandareappropriatefortheirholdingsandfarmingsystems.9EstimatedbytheMinistryofAgriculturetobearoundtwomillionhectaresor16percentoftotalcultivatedland(althoughaconsiderableproportionisallocatedtosugar).10GrowthandTransformationPlan,2010/11–2014/15,FederalDemocraticRepublicofEthiopia.11AgricultureSectorPolicyInvestmentFramework,2010–2020,MinistryofAgriculture.

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Oromia,SNNP,andTigrayRegions.TheAGPisfundedbytheGoE,WorldBank,andbilateraldevelopmentpartners—Canada,Netherlands,Spain,andFAO.TheAGPisalsotechnicallysupportedbytheATA.

TheUSGovernment’sFTFprograminEthiopiaisvaluedatUSD270million.12FTF’sdevelopmentobjectiveistoincreaseeconomicgrowthwithresiliencyinruralareas,specificallytoreducesustainablypoverty13andhunger14throughimprovementsinfoodavailability,access,andutilization.AFTFimplementingpartner,theAMDeisalignedwiththeAGPandsupportstheimplementationofAGPsub‐component1.3:MarketandAgribusinessDevelopment.TheAMDewasfundedinJune2011foraperiodoffiveyearstoJuly2016,withabudgetofUSD50million.ItwasplannedthattheAMDebenefitatotalofonemillionfarmers.

TheAMDedevelopmentgoalis:sustainablyreducepovertyandhungerbyimprovingtheproductivityandcompetivenessofagriculturalvaluechainsthatofferjobsandincomeactivitiesforruralhouseholds.15AMDe'sworkisstructuredaroundimprovingthecompetitivenessofsixvaluechains:maize,wheat,sesame,coffee,honey,andchickpeas16throughtechnicalandmanagerialassistance,increasedaccesstofinance,andprivatesectorinvestment.AMDepartnerswith2,554PCsand251FCUs,withatotalmembershipof1.9million.

Theprojectdesignincludeda12‐monthInceptionPhaseduringwhichtimeACDI/VOCA17hiredstaff,establishedofficesineachoftheAGPregions,refinedtheimplementationstrategy,anddevelopeddetailedworkplans.TheAMDesubmitteditsfirstannualworkplaninNovember2011.Theresultofaniterativeprocess,thefirstworkplanwasapprovedbyUSAIDinMay2012.Follow‐onplansweresubmittedandacceptedwithoutrevisioninOctober2012,July2013,andJuly2014.TheAMDehasthereforebeenoperationalforthreeagriculturecyclesandisabouttoenterthefourth.1.3 TheMid‐TermEvaluationThisMid‐TermEvaluation(MTE)isdelayedwellpastthemid‐termpoint.ThedraftreportwassubmittedinMarch2015atatimewhentheAMDehad15monthsofimplementationremaining.18WhilethereforetheprimarypurposeofthisMTEistoassessprojectperformanceandrecommendadjustmentsduringthelifeoftheproject,theSoW(seeAnnex1)alsorequirestheEvaluationTeamtoofferrecommendationstoinformthedesignofafollow‐onproject.Thefulllistofquestionsincludesthefollowing:

1. TowhatextentistheAMDeprojectprogressingagainstplannedobjectivesasoutlinedinitsperformancemanagementplan(PMP)andworkplan?

2. Towhatextenthasthisprojectcontributedtogenderequityintermsofaccesstocredit,capacity‐buildingsupport,improvedinputs,andtechnologies,resultinginanincreaseinsalesofagriculturalcommodities?Arethereevidencessupportingpositivechangesintheseareas?

3. WhathasbeenAMDe’scontributiontotheimprovementofnutritionalstatusofwomenandchildren?

4. Whatistheimpactoftheresourcesspentandperformancepervaluechain?Whatistherelativevaluegeneratedintermsofproductivityandincomeincrease,employmentgenerationpervaluechaintoresourcesspent?Whichvaluechainshavethehighestreturnsperdollarspent?

5. WhichamongtheAMDe’spartnershipshavebeenthemosteffectiveintermsoftheircollaborationandcoordinationtoimplementAGP‐AMDe?Whichhavebeentheleast

12Eighty‐fivepercentoftheinvestmentis,however,infivemainprojects:twoimplementedinAGPworedas,oneinpastoralareas,oneinPSNPworedas,andoneaspecialistnutritionproject.13Toreducehouseholdpovertyby30percentintheZoneofInfluencewithinfiveyears.14Toreducestuntingby20percentintheZoneofInfluencewithinfiveyears.15TaskOrderAID663TO11‐00003.16ThiswasaddedinYearOneofimplementationbyUSAIDasPepsiCoexpressedinterestinpurchasingchickpeasfromEthiopia.Thisinfactdidnothappen.17ThePRIMEimplementingagency.18TheprojectwillcloseoutinMay2016.

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effective?Inbothcases,whatiscontributingtothesepartnerships’successandchallenges?

6. Whichofthecomponentsand/orprojectactivitiescaneasilybescaledupinthefuturebasedonmeasurable,practical,andsustainableresults?

7. Giventhefindingstothesequestions,doestheProjecthavetherightbalanceofstaffandfunding?Isthereanappropriatebalancebetweenstaffandbudget,theirmanagement,andtheactivitiestheprojectintendstoaccomplish?

1.4 MethodologyTheEvaluationTeamcomprisedaTeamLeaderandthreelocalconsultants19(seeAnnex2—TeamCVs)andcarriedouttheMTEintwophases,mid‐Novembertomid‐December2014andJanuary2015.TheteamwasbriefedbytheAKLDPteamandUSAIDinthefirstweekofthemission.TheEvaluationTeam’sworkplan,alsopresentedfordiscussioninthesemeetings,wasapprovedbyUSAID(seeAnnex4).TheEvaluationTeamreviewedkeydocuments,includingtheprojectproposalandmonitoringandothermajorreports(seeAnnex5–Bibliography).TheEvaluationTeamalsovisited26woredasinAGPregions,interviewed215informantsfrom66organizationsincludingfarmerorganizations,primarycooperatives,farmercooperativeunions,partnerorganizations,industryassociations,andtheprivatesector(seeAnnex6).InterviewswerestructuredusingaguidelinedevelopedbytheEvaluationTeam(seeAnnex7).LimitationsDespiteitsefforts—thereviewofalargeamountofprojectinformationandinterviewingmorethan200informants—theEvaluationTeamrecognizesitslimitations.Forexample,timedidnotallowforadetailedcomparativestudybetweenbeneficiaryandnon‐beneficiaryhouseholds,andthereforeissuesofimpactandattributionhavenotbeenadequatelyaddressed.Timeconstraintsalsoresultedinbiastostakeholdersandactivitiesthatwereaccessiblebyall‐weatherroads.Theshortcomingsaside,theEvaluationTeamisconfidentthatthefindingsandrecommendationareusefulbothintheshorttermandthedesignofafollow‐onproject.2. EvaluationFindingsTheMTEreviewfindingsaregenericandspecific.Atthegenericlevel,theEvaluationTeamwelcomesUSAID’sengagementinEthiopia’shighpotentialagricultureareas,includingthatthissupportisalignedwiththeMoA’sAGP.Inthisway,USAIDissupportinggovernmenteffortstobalancedevelopmentinvestmentacrossEthiopia’sthreemainagro‐ecologicalareas:highrainfallareas,lowrainfallareas,andthepastorallowlands.TheAGPisimplementedinEthiopia’shighrainfallareas,whicharedependentonmono‐modalkiremtrains20andasinglemehergrowingseason.

TheAMDewaslaunchedinJune2011andbecamefullyoperationalin2012.TheAMDehasthereforebeenoperationalforthe2012,2013,and2014meherseasons.Withinthesethreeseasonsandthereforelearningcycles,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDehasperformedexceptionallywellinsomeareas,lesswellinothers,andhasyettoaddresssomeissuesthatareofimportance.ProgressineachoftheseareasispresentedinthisMid‐TermEvaluation.Overall,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDehasperformedwellandhasthepotentialtoachieve“highperformance”overtime.Thisisimpressive,withintherelativelyshortperiodofimplementationandEthiopia’sdiverseandcomplexagro‐ecology,farmingsystems,andagriculturesectorinstitutionalandpolicyenvironment.TheEvaluationTeamfindsitofstrategicimportanceforUSAIDtofundafollow‐onphase.

Toacceleratelearning,analysis,anddocumentationandidentifyevidence‐basedgoodpracticethatcanbetakentoscale,theEvaluationTeamfindsthattheFTFZoIshouldbesmallerandmorefocusedandthatAMDeinterventionsshouldbebettersupportedbyotherUSAIDprograms—socialprotection,WASH,nutrition,health,andeducation.Implementedasitis,the

19JohnFox,togetherwithDr.NigussieAlemayehu,Dr.AmareGhizaw,andDr.AmdissaTeshome.20ThesinglekiremtrainsofJunetoSeptemberandtheassociatedmehergrowingseason.

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EvaluationTeamfindsitunlikelytheAMDewillmakeasignificantcontributiontoFTF’spovertyandstuntingreductionobjectives.TheEvaluationTeamalsofindstheAMDecoulddomuchmoretotargetsmallholderfarmerswithholdingsofonehectareorlessandwomeninagriculture—bothwomen‐headedhouseholdsandwomeninmale‐headedhouseholds—andinthiswaymakeanincreasedcontributiontomeetingFTFoutcomes.

Finally,inthisoverviewsection,theEvaluationTeamfindstheUSAIDcouldhaveexercisedstrongerleadershiptocontextualizeFTFindicatorstoEthiopia’sagriculturesectorandagro‐ecology.Thiswasnotdone,withtheresultthatAMDestaffhaswastedconsiderabletimeandresourcesmonitoringandreportingonrathermeaninglessindicators,e.g.,grossmarginsperhectare,valueofincrementalsales,andnumberofhectaresunderimprovedmanagement.Importantlyalso,FTFdoesnotrequirethemonitoringofacontrolgroup,withtheresultthatattributionisunclear.21

Movingtothespecific,theEvaluationTeampresentsitsfindingsunderthequestionsintheSoW.2.1ProgressmadeundereachofthefourmajorresultsQuestion1:TowhatextentistheAMDeprojectprogressingagainstplannedobjectivesasoutlinedinitsperformancemanagementplan(PMP)andworkplan?Attimes,theEvaluationTeamfounditdifficulttoconfirmprogressasthequalityoftheprojectdataappearstobeinconsistent.TheEvaluationTeamthereforepresents“bestestimates.”Result1:ImprovedCompetitivenessoftheValueChainsForResult1,progressissummarizedinTable3:ProgressagainstindicatorsandLOPtargetsforResult1.Progressiscolorcodedasfollows: Blue—fullyachievedor100percentoftheLOPtarget Green—verylikelytobeachievedor80–100%percentoftheLOPtarget Yellow—likelytobeachievedbutrequiringadditionalfocusor60–79percentoftheLOP

target Red—unlikelytobeachievedor<60percentoftheLOPtarget Uncolored—notassessed

UnderResult1,theAMDetracks13indicatorsandassociatedvaluechaintargets.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDehasfullyachieved21percent,anadditional20percentareverylikelytobeachieved,14percentarelikelytobeachievedwithfocusedadditionalsupport,andthatitisthoughtthat45percentareunlikelytobeachieved.Ashasbeenmentioned,however,theEvaluationTeamfindssomeoftheFTFindicatorsrathermeaningless,andthereforethissectionofthereportshouldnotbeinterpretedasastatementofAMDeperformance.Indicator#1:NumberofhectaresunderimprovedtechnologiesormanagementpracticesasaresultofUSGassistanceAttheendofthe2014growingseason,progressagainstLOPtargetsislowacrossallvaluechains:7percentofthe12,000hatargetforwheat,1percentofthe15,670haformaize,and11,20,and36percentforcoffee,sesame,andchickpeasrespectively.AMDestaff,however,suggeststheyareconfidentofmeeting,andinsomecasesexceeding,theLOPtargets,asthetargetsaremodestandAMDesystems—accesstoseeds(maize—BH66122andsesame—Humera‐1andSetit‐1),fertilizer,andequipment—areinplaceasaresultofitsgrantsfacilityandAMDe’s

21USAIDconfirmsthatanend‐of‐projectevaluationisplanned.Whilethisiswelcomed,theEvaluationTeamconsidersstatisticallysignificantimpactsunlikelyintherelativelymodestperiodofAMDeimplementation.22ThemaizeBH661hybridisbeingpopularizedthroughtheAdvanceMaizeSeedAdoptionProgram(AMSAP)partnershipofwhichAMDeisamember.Whilerecognizingthevalueofincreasingyields,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedtheAMDeisbeingunwittinglypulledintoanarrowfocusonyieldsthatispotentiallyunsustainable,asopenpollinatedvarietiesareoftenbettersuitedtotheneedsofpoorersmallholderfarmersinthemoremarginalareasoftheAGP’sfourmainregions.

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supporttofarmertraining,fielddemonstrations,farmer‐to‐farmerexperiencesharingforums,andexchangevisits.AMDeisconfidentthatthiswillresultinarapidscaling‐upofprogressinthecurrentgrowingseason. TheEvaluationTeam,however,wishestodrawattentiontothecharacterofEthiopianagriculture:13millionsmallholderfarmingfamilies,eachwithtwo,three,ormorescatteredplotsthattypicallytotallessthanahectare.Smallholdersalsoprizecroppingdiversitytomeethouseholdfoodsecurityneedsand(understandablyperhaps)manyareresistanttostandardizedextensionpackagesthatareinvariablydesignedformodelfarmerswithlargerholdingsandforhigherrainfallareas.TheEvaluationTeamthereforefindsthatthisindicatorandassociatedLOPtargetsshouldbebettercontextualized.Indicator#3:NumberofbeneficiariessupportedbyAMDe‐assistedvaluechainsTheLOPtargetsforsesameandcoffeehavebeensurpassed:thetargetof74,980beneficiariesforsesamewasexceededby47,752or164percentandthetargetof110,515beneficiariesforcoffeeexceededby17,963or116percent.Progressacrossothervaluechainshasbeenslower,anditmaybethattheLOPtargetswillbeachieved:23,130oftheplanned286,951beneficiariesforwheator8percent;167,290oftheplanned295,404beneficiariesformaizeor57percent;30,704oftheplanned143,974beneficiariesforchickpeasor21percent;andfinally19,755oftheplanned88,282beneficiariesforhoneyor22percent.23AMDestaffsuggestthetargetsareachievableforreasonsalreadyoutlined.Indicator#4:Averageyieldperhectare/hive(kg)TheLOPtargetsforincreasedyieldsperhectareforwheatandcoffeehavebeenachievedat110and104percentrespectively,andtheLOPtargetsformaize,sesame,andhoneyarelikelytobeachievedwithprogressat95,84,and80percentofLOPtargetsrespectively.TheLOPtargetforchickpeasisunlikelytobeachieved,asprogressis44percentoftheLOPtarget.Again,theAMDestaffisconfidenttargetswillbereachedandsurpassedforthereasonsoutlined.Table1:AverageyieldincreasestoDecember2014Valuechain LOPyieldtargets

(kg/ha)Achievedincreasedyields(kg/ha)

Achievedincreasedyields(%)

Wheat 2,969 3,266 110Maize 3,703 3,517 95Coffee 976 1,015 104Sesame 800 672 84Chickpeas 3,305 1,454 44Honey 15 12 80Source:AbstractedfromprojectPMPreportsWhilerecognizingtheprogressmade,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedthataverageyieldincreasespresentedinTable1areatvariancewiththenumberofhectaresunderimprovedmanagement(Indicator#1).Forexample,thereportedprogressforwheatunderimprovedmanagementis7percentofthe12,000haLOPtarget,yetdespitethisandtheknownimpactofwheatrustin2014,theAMDereportsa110percentincreaseinyield.Inparenthesis,suchanomaliesarefoundacrossAMDe’sprogressreports.Indicator#5:Grossmarginperunitofland/hive(USD)ThetargetLOPgrossmarginsforwheatandsesamehavebeenachievedat101and186percentrespectively,andprogressagainstLOPtargetsformaizeandchickpeasarecurrently86and85percentrespectively.Grossmarginprogressforcoffeeismoremodestat66percentoftheLOPtargetdespitetheprogressmadetoaddressproductionconstraints.TheEvaluationTeam,

23Thereareanestimated1.5millionhouseholdskeepingbeesinEthiopia.

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however,findstheAMDereportingongrossmarginsmisleading,asthereportsdonotaddressattribution.24ItisthereforenotcleartowhatextentAMDeplayedacentralroleinimprovinggrossmarginsortowhatextenttheimprovementsweretheresultofotherprojectsorsimplytheresultofgoodrainfallorEthiopia’sexpandingroadnetworkorimprovementsininputsupply. Toillustratetheproblemofmeasuringgrossmargins,theEvaluationTeamlearnedtheGozamenFCU,Debre‐Markosisholdingseveralthousandsofquintalsofmaizethatwerepurchasedatpricescalculatedonthebasisofproduction.Pricesarenowwellbelowthecostofproduction,andtheFCUisunderstandablyreluctanttopurchasemoremaize.Asaresult,cooperativememberswereforcedtosellmaizetotradersatthecostsofproductionorevenataloss.Accordingtowhenthegrossmarginindicatorismeasured,specificallybeforeorafterpricecollapses,theFTFimplementingpartnercanbeseentobeeitherperformingwellormuchlesswell.Ataminimum,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatgrossmarginsperformancedatashouldbeupdatedmonthlyinordertomoreaccuratelyreflectthecomplexityofthecommoditymarkets.25Indicator#6:Valueofincrementalsalesatfarm‐levelattributedtoFTFimplementationCoffeesaleshavereachedUSD32millionor127percentofplannedLOPtarget.TheLOPtargetsforincrementalsalesofmaizeandsesameappearachievable,asprogressisrespectively87and80percent.Incontrast,thetargetsforwheatandchickpeasareunlikelytobeachieved,asprogressagainsttheLOPtargetsisrespectively20and19percent.SeeTable2below.Hereagain,theEvaluationTeamfindsthisindicatorinadequate,asthevalueofincrementalsalesisprimarilyinformedbyfluctuatingcommodityprices.Accordingly,thetimingofthedatacollectioncanplayasignificantroleinshowingprogressagainstthisindicatorinapositiveornegativelight.Thevalueofincrementalsalesthereforeappearstobeanotherrelativelymeaninglessindicator.Table2:ValueofincrementalsalesattributedtoFTFinterventionsValuechain LOPtargets—

increasedsales(USD)

Actualincreasedsales(USD)

Actualincreasedsales(%ofLOPtarget)

Wheat 9,120,344 1,824,068 20Maize 12,449,951 10,831,457 87Coffee 25,274,365 32,098,443 127Sesame 37,544,955 30,035,964 80Chickpeas 8,403,233 1,596,614 19Honey 1,904,833 1,276,238 67Total 94,697,681 77,662,784 82Indicator#10:ValueofexportsoftargetedagriculturalcommoditiesasaresultofUSGassistanceTheLOPtargetforcoffeehasbeensurpassedat120percentofthetargetorvalueofexportsworthUSD120million.TheLOPexporttargetforsesamewasUSD74million,andexportstodateareUSD46millionor63percent.Thetargetmightthereforebeachieved.Incontrast,itwouldseemtheLOPtargetsforchickpeas26andhoney27willnotbemet.Despitethelimitedprogressmadeunderthisindicatorinthehoneyvaluechain,theEthiopiaBeekeepersAssociationhas,withthesupportofitsdonors,includingAMDe,assistedEthiopiainsecuringInternationalOrganizationforStandardizationaccreditationtoexporthoneytonichemarkets

24Ingeneral,theEvaluationTeamfindsthattheAMDefailstogiveadequateattentiontoattribution.25Coffeefarmgatepriceshave,forexample,fluctuatedbyasmuchas50percentinjusttwoyears.AtthetimeoftheMTE,domesticwheatpriceswereroughlytwiceinternationalprices.26Ethiopiadoesnotyetproduceexport‐qualitychickpeasforexporttotheMiddleEast.27Thedomesticpriceforhoneyishigherthanexportprices.

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inEurope,includingtheFairTradeoutlets.FormoreinformationonAMDesupporttoTradeAssociations,seeTextBox1.TheLOPtargetsforthisindicatorareinformedbyanexportmarketassessmentcarriedoutbyUSAIDandtheATA.Itwouldappeartheassessmentdidnotadequatelyaddressdomesticandinternationalqualityandpriceissuesthatinevitablyimpactonperformance.BearinginmindthefocusofFTFdevelopmentobjectives,theEvaluationTeamfindsthattheAMDemighthaveperformedbetterifithadbeentaskedtodevelopvaluechainsfordomesticmarketsthatnotonlyaremorecompatiblewithapro‐poorfocus,butarealsolessrisky.Indicator#12:Volumeofprocessedproducts(mt)ProgressagainstplannedLOPtargetsforthevolumeofprocessedproductsisasfollows:honey—79percentoftheplanned1,916mt;coffee—57percentoftheplanned29,627mt;andmaize—52percentoftheplanned19,265mt.Progressforwheatandsesameare20percentoftheirrespectivetargetsandchickpeasonly3percent.ItislikelytheLOPtargetforhoney,coffee,andmaizewillbemet,asgoodprogresswasmadeinYear3whenannualtargetswereexceededby287,224,and121percentrespectively.TheLOPtargetsforwheat,sesame,andchickpeasareunlikelytobemet.Indicator#13:Percentagedecreaseofpost‐harvestlossesasaresultofAMDeinterventionTheplannedreductionsinpost‐harvestlosses:14to9percentforwheat;23to7percentformaize;25to10percentforcoffee;10to5percentforsesame;andfinally20to3percentforchickpeas.Todate,reportedprogressisimpressive:wheatlossesto8percent,maizelossesto11percentandchickpeaslossesto6percent.Incontrast,progressinsesameandcoffeearemoremodest,lossesdownbyonly20and7percentofplannedtargets.TheEvaluationTeam,however,learnedfromleadresearchersthatpost‐harvestlossdatainEthiopiaisprobablyoverstatedandthatlossesaremoremodest.Iflossesareinfactmoremodest,itwillbenecessarytorevisittheAMDebaselineinorderfortheprogressreportedbyAMDetobeverified.

TextBox1:SupporttotradeassociationsAMDeisprovidingsupporttoanumberofindustryassociations:CoffeeExportersAssociation;CoffeeProducersandExportersAssociation;BeekeepersAssociation;HoneyandBeeswaxProducersandExportersAssociation;EthiopiaApicultureBoard;andEthiopianPulses,OilseedsandSpicesProcessersandExportersAssociation.AMDe'sprimarysupportiscapacitybuildingandtechnicalsupport.AMDealsosupportsitspartnerstoattendinternationaltradefairs.AMDe,togetherwithOxfam,SNV,andSOSSahelassistedtheEthiopiaApicultureBoard(EAB)inhostingtheThirdApi‐AfricaInternationalConferencethatwasattendedbyinternationalexpertsandbeekeepersfromalloverAfrica,includingEthiopia.AMDealsoassistedtheEthiopiaBeekeepersAssociation(EBA)tosecureEUaccreditationtoexporthoneytoEurope,asitappearsthatthereisanexpandingmarketforEthiopianhoneyinEurope.

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Table3:ProgressagainstindicatorsandLOPtargetsforResult1

IndicatorValuechain

LOPtarget

Cumulative(Years1–3)Year4target

%AchievableTarget Result %

Result%LOP

IR1:ImprovedcompetitivenessofselectedVCs1 Numberofhectaresunder

improvedtechnologiesormanagementpracticesasaresultofUSGassistance

Wheat 12,000 6,017 846 14 7% 7,501 70%Maize 15,670 8,527 106 1 1% 9,984 64%Coffee 3,200 900 362 40 11% 1,380 54%Sesame 3,788 2,252 762.5 34 20% 2,075 75%Chickpeas 21,000 15,822 7,554 48 36% 15,600 110%

3 NumberofbeneficiariessupportedbyAGP‐AMDe‐assistedvaluechains

Wheat 286,951 173,968 23,130 13 8% 72,995 33%Maize 295,440 176,948 167,290 95 57% 74,995 82%Coffee 110,515 70,529 128,478 182 116% 19,994 134%Sesame 74,980 57,984 122,732 212 164% 9,997 177%Chickpeas 143,974 53,997 30,704 57 21% 44,989 53%Honey 88,282 37,292 19,755 53 22% 29,994 56%

4 Averageyieldperhectare/hive(kg)

Wheat 2,969 3,276 110% 2,801 94%Maize 3,703 3,517 95% 3,300 89%Coffee 976 1,012 104% 976 100%Sesame 800 674 84% 775 97%Chickpeas 3,305 1,470 44% 2,754 83%Honey 15 12 80% 15 100%

5 Grossmarginperunitofland/hiveofselectedcrops(USD)

Wheat 822 833 101% 748 192%Maize 648 558 86% 589 177%Coffee 2,453 1,630 66% 2,336 162%Sesame 581 1,079 186% 571 284%Chickpeas 750 636 85% 736 183%

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Table3(continued)

Indicator

Valuechain

LOPtarget

Cumulative(Years1‐3)Year4target

%AchievableTarget Result %

Result%LOP

6 Valueofincrementalsales(collectedatfarmlevel)attributedtoFTFimplementation(USD)

Wheat 9,120,344 17,127,039 1,830,662 11 20% 3,500,000 58%Maize 12,449,951 7,665,348 10,817,419 141 87% 2,046,875 103%Coffee 25,274,365 8,074,365 32,129,763 398 127% 5,000,000 147%Sesame 37,544,955 22,236,251 29,951,240 135 80% 9,221,550 104%Chickpeas 8,403,233 1,508,233 1,599,002 106 19% 2,016,000 43%Honey 1,940,883 1,750,079 1,292,527 74 67% 85,684 71%

10 ValueofexportsoftargetedagriculturalcommoditiesasaresultofUSGassistance(USD)

Coffee 63,998,000 37,837,000 76,732,508 203 120% 20,000,000 151%Sesame 74,644,250 38,398,000 46,859,399 122 63% 20,475,000 90%Chickpeas 6,073,807 4,390,337 ‐ ‐Honey 3,520,000 1,373,600 907,211 66 26% 1,000,000 54%

12 Volumeofprocessedproducts(mt)

Wheat 132,582 79,095 25,867 33 20% 37,541 48%Maize 19,265 8,317 10,071 121 52% 3,918 73%Coffee 29,627 7,565 16,944 224 57% 15,617 110%Sesame 171,927 93,335 34,503 37 20% 46,850 47%Chickpeas 36,019 25,107 915 4 3% 8,999 28%Honey 1,916 530 1,519 287 79% 574 109%

13 Percentagedecreaseofpost‐harvestlossesasaresultofAMDeintervention

Wheat 9(14) 8 6 120% 1 200%Maize 7(23) 4 12 75% 3 100%Coffee 10(25) 7 1 7% 3 27%Sesame 5(10) 4 1 20% 1 40%Chickpeas 3(20) 12 14 82% 3 100%

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TextBox2:AMDesupporttoFCUstobuildwarehousesforthesesamevaluechainBasedonarequestfromtheGovernment,USAIDrequestedAMDetoprovidesupporttoFCUsinnorthernEthiopiatosupporttheaggregation,cleaning,andexportofsesame.

TheinitialrecommendedstandardAMDe50percentgrantwasrejectedbytheMoAinfavorofa70percentgrant.Eachofthe4warehousescostsaroundEthBirr9millionorUSD450,000.ThebalanceoftheconstructioncostwassecuredbyloanfromtheEthiopiaCommercialBank,usingthelandcertificateascollateral.Theloansincludedaoneandahalfyearconstruction“graceperiod”andthenrepaymentoverbetweenfiveandeightyears.Todate,repaymentsareontrackandtotal23percent.

Thewarehouseseachhaveacapacityof5,000mt,andAMDehasalsosuppliedsesamecleaningequipmentunderthesamegrantfacility.

Result2:ImprovedAccesstoFinanceandInvestmentOriginally,thisresultwastitledImprovedAccesstoFinance.However,followingthesub‐contractingofRenewStrategies(aprivateequityfirm),theresultwasrenamed,asisindicatedinthesub‐title.Indicator#14:ValueofagriculturalandruralloansThemainactivitiescarriedoutunderthisindicatoraretwofold:tobuildthecapacityandunderstandingofbanksandagriculturesectorstakeholders,resultinginincreasedtrustandinvestment;andtoattractequityinvestorstoinvestinEthiopia’sagriculturesector.ToDecember2014,thisresultedinUSD63million59ofnewinvestment,ormorethan150percenttheLOPtargetofUSD40million.Ananalysisoftheloansconfirmsthat69percentweremadebytheCommercialBankofEthiopia,while16,7,and5percentweremadebytheCooperativeBankofOromia,AwashInternationalBank,andWogagenBankrespectively.Theloansweremadeto76majorrecipientsthatindirectlybenefitedanestimated2,300otherfirmsorPCs.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthisworkofstrategicimportanceinasectorthathashistoricallystruggledtoattractinvestmentfrombanks60andfinancialinstitutionsinEthiopia,withtheresultthatsmallholderfarmers,PCs,andFCUs61havebeenslowtotakeupnewtechnologies.

SomeofthemostsuccessfulinvestmentshavebeentheresultofacombinationofloansandAMDegrants(seeResult4).Forexample,theAMDeprovided70percentgrantstoFCUsfortheconstructionofwarehousesandcleaningequipmentforsesamethatwillincreaseexports.TheAMDestaffalsoworkedwithFCUstodevelopbusinessplansandtheEthiopiaCommercialBank(ECB)thatresultedinthebalanceofthe30percentconstructioncostsbeingcoveredbytheECBasarepayableloan.

Basedonthesuccessofthismodel(seeTextBox2and3),theAMDehasreceivedgrantapplicationsforanadditionalninewarehousesfromFCUsfortheaggregation,cleaning,andstorageofmaize.ThequalityofthenewwarehouseswillenabletheFCUstocompeteforWFPP4Pcontracts.ItisalsoreportedthattheWorldBankissupportingtheconstructionof40morewarehousesacrossthefourAGPregions.

Underthesecondactivity,RenewStrategieshassecuredUSD250,000ofprivateequityfundingforMETADPLC(alocalcoffeevaluechainactor)thathasalsobenefitedfromanAMDegrantofUSD172,000forimprovedstorage,awashingstation,andcleaningequipment.TheAMDeinvestmentteamalsoreportedthatRenewStrategieshasanadditionalUSD2.5millioninthepipeline,withoptionsofanadditionalUSD6million.Whileveryencouraging,itremainstobeseenifthislevelofinvestmentwillberealized.62Indicator#18:Numberofclients(householdsand/ormicroenterprises)benefittingfromfinancialservicesprovidedthroughUSG‐assistedfinancialintermediaries,includingnon‐financialinstitutionsoractors

59Atthetimeofthefinalizationofthereview,theleveloffacilitatedinvestmenthadincreasedtomorethanUSD80million.60TheEvaluationTeamlearnedthatonly6percentofEthiopiaCommercialBankloansaremadetotheagriculturesector.61ItshouldbenotedthatcooperativesinEthiopiahavehistoricallystruggledtosecurebankloansasaresultofpoorcreditratings.62InvestorscontinuetobediscouragedbythecostofdoingbusinessinEthiopia.

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TheplannednumberofLOPclientsbenefitingfromfinancialservicesis64,520,ofwhich29,080or45percenthasbeenachieved(seeFigure1).ThenumberofplannedbeneficiariesforYear5is17,720,and,providedthisnumberisachieved,theendoftheprojecttotalwillbe46,800,or72.54percentoftheLOPtarget,whichissatisfactory.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthisindicatorofcentralimportance,asitreflectsthenumberofpeoplebenefitingfromUSGassistanceandisthereforeaproxyforemployment.Inacountrywhereunemploymentisestimatedtobeover17percent63(CentralStatisticsAgency,2014)—andhigherintheagegroup18to25—increasingthenumberofclientsandthereforesupportingthecreationofseasonalandfull‐timejobsisofprimaryimportance.Tofurtherincreasethenumberofclientsandsupportincreasedemploymentopportunities,supportwouldneedtobefocusedonPCsandsmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.Inordertoensurethisreorientation,theAMDewouldneedtodisengagefromfurthersupportforlargeinfrastructureprojectssuchaswarehouseconstructionafterithasmetitscurrentobligations.Asaresultofincreasinginterestfromotherdevelopmentpartners,includingasproposedthroughtheAGP2,itwouldseemthatFCUsareincreasinglyabletoattractinvestmentforwarehouseconstructionfromothersources.Figure1:Numberofclientsbenefitingfromfinancialservices

Result3:ImprovedEnablingEnvironmentIndicator#21:Numbersofpolicies/regulations/administrativeproceduresimprovedasaresultofUSGassistanceTheAMDecontractedateamofinternationalandlocalconsultantstoundertakea“BusinessEnablingEnvironmentAssessment”thatisinformedbytheWorldBank’s“DoingBusiness”assessmenttools.Inaddition,theseedandfertilizerpolicytargetswereinformedbythePIF.TheAssessmentwascarriedoutin2012andthefindingspresentedtokeystakeholdersinavalidationworkshop.Asaresult,theAMDeidentifiedsevenpolicyprocessesthatitplannedtoinform,withaviewtocreatingamorefavorableenvironmentforagribusiness.TheEvaluationTeamlearnedthatprogressacrossthesevenpolicyprocessesismixed,withgoodprogressmadeinsomeareaswhileslowerprogresshasbeenachievedinotherareas.Thisisperhapsnotsurprising,astheagriculturepolicyenvironmentinEthiopiaisamongstthemostchallenginginsub‐SaharaAfrica.DetailedprogressispresentedintheTable4below.Usingthe

63Ethiopiameasuresunemploymentasthenumberofpeopleactivelylookingforajobasapercentageofthelaborforcehttp://ieconomics.com/ethiopia‐unemployment‐rate.

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TextBox3:EmbabaHayaRuSACCO,TigrayTheEmbabaHayaRuSACCOwasestablishedinDecember2002with51members(43menand8women),withsavingsofEthBirr1,020.Themembershipincreasedsteadilyto1,109(515menand594women)in2012.WiththesupportofAMDe,membershiphasincreasedfurtherto1,332(620menand712women)in2013,and1,479(690menand789women)in2014.SavingsarenowvaluedatEthBirr5,196,000.

SupportprovidedbyAMDesinceMarch2013includestrainingon: savingsmethodsandmembershipmobilization financialmanagement riskanalysisinsavingmobilization basiccomputing—PeachtreeAccountingSoftware leadership

WiththissupportandAMDe’ssupportforofficeequipment—desktopcomputers,laptop,photocopier,printer,LCDprojector,Sonycamera,chairs,tables,filingcabinet,andfaxmachine—theEmbabaHayahasgraduatedfromaRuSACCOtoaruralbank.

FTFenablingenvironmenttrackingsystem,fourpolicyprocesseshavebeenprogressedtoStage2,onetoStage3,andtwotoStage4.TheEvaluationTeamrecognizesthegoodworkdonetocreateamorefavorableenvironmentforagribusinessbutnotesthattheMoAhadalreadyidentifiedtheneedforseedandfertilizerpolicyreformandthatthesewereprogressingasplanned.Incontrast,AMDeengagementinthewheatsubsidyandmaizeexportbanspolicyprocessesappearoverlyoptimisticinviewofthecomplexityofthepolicyprocesses,thenumberofdifferentgovernmentinstitutionsinvolved,andtheimportancetonationalfoodsecurity.IrrespectiveoftheengagementofJohnMellorAssociatestoleadthewheatsubsidypolicyprocesses,theEvaluationTeamfindsitunlikelythatthesepolicyprocesseswillbeeasilyinformedbytheAMDe,orindeedthatitcouldplayanythingotherthanaminorrole.Rather,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDe’spolicyworkcouldhavebeenbetterinformedbyandcoordinatedwithotherFTFpartners,withthesupportofUSAID.Table4:Policies,regulations,administrativeproceduresbytheirstagesofdevelopmentSpecificpolicytargets Developmentstage* Remark/noteSeedsystemthatsupportsthedevelopmentofaprivateseedindustry

Stage3:Presentedforlegislation/decree

NationalSeedRegulationshavebeensubmittedbyMoAtothePrimeMinister’sOfficeforpassagebyCouncilofMinisters.

Liftrestrictionsforprivatesectorengagementinfertilizerproductionandmarketing

Stage2:Draftedandpresentedforpublicconsultation

TheMoApresentedarevisedpolicyproposalforthere‐launchoftheNationalFertilizerIndustryAgency—dissolvedin2006.

Regulatoryframeworkforthirdpartywarehouseandgrading

Stage4:Passed/approved

APublicEnterpriseWarehouseregulationwaspassedbytheCouncilofMinistersandimplementationwillbeginoncetheRegulationisgazetted.TheregulationwillseparatethecurrentECXtradingandwarehousingsystem.Thiswillbeanimportantfirststeptothirdpartyorprivatesectorwarehousing.

Removalofwheatimportsubsidiesandmaizeexportbans

Stage4:Passed/approved

TheMoTissuedalettertoMoAonNovember22,2014toremovetheexportbanonmaizeforcommercialfarmersandtheEGTE.

ProvisionofaNationalAgriculturalFinancesystemtomeettheneedsofsmallcommercialfarmers


Developaninstitutionalstructureforcoffeemarketing


Developastrategyfortheimprovedtransportandhandlingofcommoditiestoimprovecompetitiveness


Astrategyfortheimprovedtransportandmanagementoffertilizerimportshasbeenpresentedtokeystockholders.Domestictransportcostanalysisisunderway.

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*ThevariousFTFpolicyenablingstagesare:Stage1—Analyzed,Stage2—Draftedandpresentedforpublic/stakeholderconsultation,Stage3—Presentedforlegislation/decree,Stage4—Passed/approved,andStage5—Passedforwhichimplementationhasbegun.Result4:StimulateInnovationandInvestmentThisresultspeaksspecificallytoAMDe'sgrantsupport.ThegrantfundwasestablishedatUSD14.2millionandtoDecember31,2014haddisbursedatotalofUSD11.6millionto240grantees.Grantsaretypicallyaccessedbyeitheracompetitivesolicitationprocessorspecificrequestsfrommulti‐stakeholdervaluechainplatformswithwhichtheAMDeisinvolved.Ashashoweverbeennoted,attimesAMDerespondstorequestsfromtheMoAroutedthroughUSAID.

AMDegrantsarefundedunderacostsharearrangement,withAMDecontributingbetween30and50percent.IndividualgrantsvaryconsiderablyfromaslittleasUSD817totheWirtuKachamaSeedMultiplicationCooperativeSocietyforaSellMoreforMoreTraining—Phase1,tograntsofUSD1.8milliontotheYidnekachewDabessaCoffeePlantationandUSD1.3milliontotheEthiopiaCommodityExchangeforaDigitalTraceabilitySystem.OtherlargegrantsincludeUSD970,000fortheBechoWolisoFCU—forEthiopia’sfirstblendedfertilizerplant—andfivegrantsofUSD198,000forthefivemanagementcontractsoftheblendedfertilizerplants.64Ofthe240grantscompletedorunderprocessofpaymenttoDecember31,only22areaboveUSD100,000,withthevastmajorityaroundUSD50,000.Grantshavebeenawardedtoindustryassociations,cooperatives,RuSACCOs,privatesector,publicresearchinstitutions,andtheEthiopiaCommodityExchange.

Themajorityofgrantswereawardedin2014andbyyearend,9percenthadbeenfullycompleted,61percentwerepartiallycompleted,and2percentwereatthesignaturestage.In‐kindgrantsofequipmentandmachineryaccountedfor28percentofgrants,andallwereunderprocurement.AdditionalanalysisbyregionandvaluechainisprovidedinTables5and6below.Ascanbeseen,Oromiabenefitedfrom88grantstotalingUSD4.7millionor40percentofallgrants,withroughlyhalfthisamountawardedtotheotherthreeregions.GrantstothedifferentvaluechainsvariedfromUSD783,837,or6percent,forhoneyto21percentforsesametosupportalmostanythingfromwarehouseconstructiontoaggregate,clean,andstoresesameforexport,throughtoirrigationequipment,tractors,andseedcleanersforEIARcenterstoincreasethesupplyofbasicseedandwashingstationsforcoffeeexporters.Similarly,PCsandFCUshavebenefitedfrommachinery—seedandgraincleaners,tractors,planters,honeyhomogenizers—andwashingstationsandhaveasaresultbeenabletoexpandtherangeofservicestheyprovidetheirmembers.Grantshavealsobeenusedtosupportcommoninterestgroups—women’scooperativesandwomenentrepreneurs—includingthepurchaseanddistributionofcoffeeseedlings,modernbeehives,andprocessorsforchickpeamilling.Table5:InnovationgrantsawardedbyregionRegion #ofgrants

awardedto‐date

Amountawarded,to‐date(USD)

#ofgrantsawarded2014

Amountawarded,thisyear(USD)

Amhara 47 2,207,141 43 1,406,613Tigray 42 2,044,182 40 1,313,117SNNPR 52 2,196,241 49 2,137,844Oromia 88 4,751,127 81 4,410,354Addis 11 416,506 7 237,719Total 240 11,615,197 220 $9,505,648

64TheWorldBankfundedtheotherfourblendedfertilizerplants.

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Table6:InnovationgrantsawardedbyvaluechainValuechain #ofgrants

awardedto‐date

Amountawarded,to‐date(USD)

#ofgrantsawarded2014

Amountawarded,thisyear(USD)

Sesame 36 2,536,228 31 1,030,329Coffee 40 2,178,866 32 1,999,084Chickpeas 32 1,328,039 26 1,079,539Maize 40 1,047,778 40 1,047,778Wheat 58 1,189,210 58 1,189,210Honey 26 783,837 25 608,467Finance 3 461,905 3 461,905Inputs(FertilizerBlending)

5 2,089,335 5 2,089,335

Total 240 11,615,197 220 $9,505,648Intheremaininglifeoftheproject,theEvaluationTeamfindthatitwouldbebeneficialforAMDetocontinuetofocusitsmajoritygrantsupporttoPCsandFCUsontheonehandandfamilybusinessesontheother,withgrantsofbelowUSD50,000andthatreachdownthevaluechaintowardsproductivityandfirst‐levelaggregationorfirst‐levelprocessinginsmallermarkettowns.2.2 ImprovementsingenderequityQuestion2:Towhatextenthasthisprojectcontributedtogenderequityintermsofaccesstocredit,capacity‐buildingsupport,improvedinputsandtechnologiesresultinginanincreaseinsalesofagriculturalcommodities?Arethereevidencessupportingpositivechangesintheaforementionedareas?InaccordancewithGoEpolicytargetsforwomen’sparticipationinEthiopia’seconomic,political,andsocialdevelopment,theAMDeset30percentwomen’sparticipationasaquotaforallAMDe‐supportedtraining,exchangevisits,andinvestmentsupport.65Althoughthefundingwasdelayed,theEvaluationTeamhasidentifiedAMDe’ssupporttothelaunchingoftheWomeninAgribusinessLeadershipNetwork(WALN)inthefourAGPregionsasoneoftheproject’smaingenderequitysuccesses.TheNetworkoffersbusinessdevelopmenttraining—negotiation,marketing,networking,financialplanning,andcommunicationskills—leadershiptraining,mentoringandcoachingsupport,andnetworkingopportunitiesforwomenleadersoperatinginEthiopia’sagribusinesssub‐sector.66TheprimarypurposeofAMDe’ssupportistoincreasetheprofitabilityofwomen‐ledbusinessesandtopromotewomenassectorleaders.67Whilerecognizingthegoodworkdone,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedthat,withinayearofthelaunch,theAMDechanneledgrantsofUSD1.5millionforonly450womenmembers.

TheAMDehasalsosupportedamembershipdrivetoincreasethenumberofwomenmembersandthenumberofwomeninleadershippositionsinPCsandFCUs.Withthesupportofabehaviorchangeorganization,theAMDeusedanincentive‐basedmodelthatofferedsmall

65Women‐headedhouseholdsaccountfor28percentofhouseholdsinAGPworedas,andwomeninmale‐headedhouseholdstypicallyconstitute50percentoffamilylabor.The30percentfigurethereforeunder‐representswomeninagriculture.66WALNcurrentlysupports100womeninitstrainingprogram.TheAMDehasinvestedUSD1.5millioninsupportoftheNetworkto‐date.67ThenetworkhasreceivednationalrecognitionthroughtheJanuary2015NationalConferencethatwasattendedbymorethan100womenentrepreneurs.

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giftstoindividualwomenwhojoinedcooperativesandtravelgrantstothecooperativeleaderswhoattractedthemostwomen.Asaresultoftheinitiative,anadditional78,000womenjoinedcooperativesinthenine‐monthperiodfromMarchtoDecember2014(seeTable7below).Table7:Incentive‐basedwomenmembershipdriveRegion Number

ofFCUsNumberofPCs

Womenregistering

Numberregisteringforthefirsttime

%registeringforthefirsttime

Oromia 14 761 14,161 2,781 19.6

Amhara 10 548 30,573 10,009 32.7SNNPRs 9 237 19,227 13,066 68.0Tigray 9 129 14,408 10,744 74.6Total 42 1,675 78,369 36,600 46.7Whilerecognizingtheimpressivegainsmadetoaddressthegenderimbalanceincooperatives,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedAMDe’sbehaviorchangeadvisoryorganizationrecommendedtheuseofincentives,aswhenthesearediscontinuedfuturewomenmembershipdrivesmayprovelesssuccessful.Whatisreallyrequiredisthatcooperativesaregivensupporttotakeonnewwaysofworkingthataremoresupportiveofwomenmembershipandparticipationindecision‐making.Forthisreason,theEvaluationTeamfindsthattheuseofincentivesshouldbeimmediatelydiscontinuedsothatfutureincreasesinwomenmembershipareattributablestrictlytowomen’sperceptionsofmembership‐relatedbenefits.

TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDgaveinadequateattentiontogenderintheAMDedesignphase,asfouroftheoriginalfivevaluechains68haveastrongexportfocus.WhilealigningwiththeAGPisimportant,USAIDmighthavegivenincreasedconsiderationtothefactthatwithsomenotableexceptions,agriculturesectorexportsaregenerallydominatedbymen.Theselectionofotherandcomplementaryvaluechainsfocusingondomesticmarketsmightthereforehaveaffordedincreasedopportunitiesforwomensmallholders,traders,andagro‐processors.USAIDalsodidnotdesignatespecificfundstosupportAMDe’sgenderequitywork.2.3 ImprovementsinnutritionaloutcomesKeyquestion3:TowhatextenthasAMDecontributedtotheimprovednutritionalstatusofwomenandchildren?TheoriginalAMDedesigndidnotincludeimprovednutritionoutcomesforwomenandchildren,andnutritiontargetswereaddedlaterattherequestofUSAID. Inthefirstyearofimplementation,theAMDecommissionedaCostofNutritiousDietBaselineStudyagainstwhichitisplannedthatnutrition‐relatedprogresscanbemeasuredattheendofthelifeoftheproject.ThefindingsofthestudyalsoinformAMDe’scascadenutritiontrainingthroughcooperatives.

WhiletheEvaluationTeamrecognizestheimportanceofimprovingnutritionoutcomesinEthiopia69andthatnutritionisadevelopmentobjectiveofFTF,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedthattheAMDe’sagribusinessandmarketdevelopmentfocusdoesnotnaturallylenditselftoimprovednutritionoutcomes.Specifically,therearerelativelyfewopportunitiestodevelop 68USAIDaddedthechickpeavaluechaininthefirstyearofimplementation.69Stuntingratesareabove40percentinAGPworedasandamongstthehighestintheworld.

TextBox4:ProcessedchickpeasforimprovednutritionoutcomesTogetherwithGutsAgroIndustry(GUTS),theAMDehassupportedthelaunchofthreechickpea‐basedshiroproductsandroastedchickpeasnacks.

ThesenewandnutritiouschickpeaproductsareprocessedfromchickpeaspurchasedthroughFCUsthathaveaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)withGUTSfor4,000metrictonnesofchickpeas.

ItisestimatedthattheMoUbenefits52,000smallholderfarmers.

Source:AGP‐AMDeAnnualReport(2014)

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andpromotenutrition‐sensitiveagriculturewithinthecurrentscopeoftheproject. TheEvaluationTeamisthereforenotsurprisedtolearnthatnutrition‐relatedprogressismixed.Ontheonehand,theAMDehascontributedtoimprovednutritionoutcomesthroughthechickpeavaluechaindevelopmentandthelaunchofthreechickpeashiroproducts(seeTextBox4).Ontheotherhand,theEvaluationTeamcanfindlittleevidencetosupportthecontinuationofthecascade‐basednutritiontraining,asitappearsinsomecasestobelittlemorethananAMDerequirementforcooperativestosecuregrants.ItisalsonotcleartotheEvaluationTeamhowsuccessfulthetrainingisinchangingattitudesandbehaviororhowgainswillbesustainedbeyondthelifeoftheproject.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatthenutritioncomponentmightbebetterimplementedthroughFTF’sENGINEproject.702.4 EffectiveresourceuseQuestion4:Whatistheimpactoftheresourcesspentandperformancepervaluechain?Whatistherelativevaluegeneratedintermsofproductivityandincomeincrease,employmentgenerationpervaluechaintoresourcesspent?Whichhavethehighestreturnsperdollarspent?Inordertoaddressthisquestion,itwouldbenecessarytohavefullandreliabledatasetsonthefollowing:increasesinlandareaundernewtechnologies;whatthetechnologieswereandwhateachcontributedtoyieldimprovements;ananalysisofanyincreasedcostsassociatedwiththesechanges;thevalueofincrementalsales,withpricesreportedregularlythroughoutthemarketingseason;andthenumberofjobs,bothseasonalandyear‐round,thathavebeengenerated.Thiswasnotpossible,astheAMDemonitoringlacksconsistencyandrigor.Forthisreason,thisquestionwasnotaddressed.

ThedecisionnottoaddressthisquestionwasalsoinformedbyUSAID’sown“CostBenefitAnalysis”studyof2014thathasprovidedavaluechainperformanceranking.71Inordertoaddressthisquestionfully,theAMDewillneedtocompleteathoroughdatacleaningandverificationexercise.

TheEvaluationTeamhas,however,learnedthattheAMDehascreatedanestimated4,231jobs(seeTable8).Whileitisclearfromthefieldworkthatnotallthesejobsarefull‐time/permanent,inacountrywhereunemploymentissohigh,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatemploymentcreationshouldbeapriorityforFTFandthatimplementingpartnersshouldtrackandreportindetailonemploymentcreation,includingbothseasonalandfull‐time/permanentemployment,andideallyofferUSAIDgender‐andage‐disaggregateddatathatcanbesharedwithregionalandfederalgovernment.Table8:NumberofjobscreatedIndicator Valuechain LOPtarget Total#ofjobs

created(Years1‐3)

%LOP

NumberofjobsattributedtoFTFimplementation

Wheat 2,268 143 6Maize 2,060 2,690 130Coffee 2,533 575 23Sesame 1,556 538 34.5Chickpeas 1,238 3 ‐Honey 1,100 282 25.6

Total 10,755 4,231 39.3Source:AbstractedfromAMDePMPreports

70EmpoweringNewGenerationsinImprovedNutritionandEconomicOpportunitiesimplementedbySavetheChildrenInternational.71ItmaybethatUSAID’sDataQualityAssessment(DQA)teamcouldhelpaddresstheissueofdataconsistency.However,toaddresstheissueofrigorandimpact,mentionhasbeenmadeoftheneedtoundertakemoredetailedstudiesthatincludecontrolgroups.

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Whiletheinformationinthesetablesoffersusefulperformancedataacrossthesixvaluechains,theEvaluationTeamfindsthereismoreworktobedonetore‐checkandverifysomeofthedata—andinparticulartoconfirmattribution,i.e.,thattheprogressmadecanbeattributedtothesupportprovidedbytheAMDe.Unabletoconfirmthenecessaryinformationduringtheperiodofthereview,theEvaluationTeamdidnotfullyanswerthisquestion.Intheremaininglifeoftheproject,therefore,itisimportanttheAMDemonitoringstaffplaysanactiveroleinverifyingallprogressdata,includingaddressingpotentiallychallengingissuessuchastheimpactofdisease—rustinwheatandmaizelethalnecrosis—fluctuatingfarmgateprices,andtheseasonalityofsomejobs.Unlessthisisdoneinthenextfewmonths,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDewillnotbeappropriatelypreparedforarigorousend‐of‐projectevaluation,whichwouldbeunfortunate,astheAMDehasclearlyachievedagreatdeal.

Whileunabletoaddressthisquestionfully,theEvaluationTeamwishestohighlighttheimpactofUSAID’sdecisiontosupportaMoArequestforwarehousing,storage,andcleaningequipmentforsesametoincreaseexports.AspresentedinFigure2,investmentacrosssixvaluechainsacrossfouryearsvariesbetween1and7percent.TheexceptionissupporttothesesamevaluechainsinYear2,when35percentoftheAMDeannualbudgetwasinvested.Whilerecognizingthestrategicimportanceofthisinvestment,theEvaluationTeamfindsthisskewingofinvestmenthadadeleteriouseffectonthedevelopmentoftheothervaluechains.Figure2:Budgetusebyvaluechain

Furtheranalysisofbudgetusealsorevealsthat“pass‐throughgrants”topartnerorganizationsandvaluechainactorsaccountfor45percentoftheprojectbudgetandaremanagedbyACDI‐VOCAheadquartersinWashington.Whilethisgrantmanagementmechanismmayreducedemandsonlocalstaff,theEvaluationTeamfindsmanyadvantagesinlocalgrantmanagement,aslocalstaffbetterunderstandsthecontextinwhichtheprojectisworking,andareinabetterpositiontoprovidetechnicalandmanagerialmentoringsupport.Finallyinthissection,theEvaluationTeamlearnedthattheAMDeinvestsonly3percentofprojectcostsintrainingandcapacitydevelopment.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatthislevelofinvestmentisinadequatetoconsolidateandmainstreamgainsmadebyAMDe.

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2.5 ProjectdesignandmanagementQuestion5:AmongAMDe'spartnerships,whicharebeingmosteffectiveintermsoftheircollaborationandcoordination?Asmentioned,theAMDesupportstheMoAAGPtodeliveritsComponent1,sub‐component1.3:MarketandAgribusinessDevelopment.72Inordertodothis,theAMDeworksmostcloselywiththeMoA,ATA,73andtheFCAatfederalandregionallevels,withwhichitsharesacommonvisionofthecommercializationofagricultureandgrowthofcooperatives.Atanoperationallevel,theAMDeannualworkplansareendorsedbyregionalAGPTechnicalCommitteesbeforetheyarepresentedatthefederalAGPTechnicalCommittee.

Inaddition,theAMDehasalsoforgedarangeofpartnerships,asampleofwhichincludesthefollowing: CapacityBuildingforScaling‐UpofEvidence‐basedBestPracticeinAgriculturalProduction

inEthiopia(CASCAPE):TheCASCAPEprojectisajointinitiativebetweenEthiopiaandtheNetherlandstoimproveagriculturalproductivity.TheAMDepartnersCASCAPEonsoiltestingandimprovedseeds.

CapacitytoImproveAgricultureandFoodSecurity(CIAFS):TheAMDeisworkingwithCIAFSonfertilizerpolicy,honeyandcoffeevaluechains,capacitybuildingforcooperatives,andacoordinatedinitiativetopromoteprivatesector‐ledseedmultiplicationandcertification.

EthiopiaCommodityExchange(ECX):TheAMDeisworkingwiththeECXtotrainECXstaff,warehouseoperators,andmanagementfirmsongradingandcoffeecertification.Inaddition,theAMDeisworkingwiththeECXtorevisecoffeestandards,includingtheplannedlaunchofatraceabilitysystem.Finally,theAMDeissupportingcooperativestobecomepermanentmembersoftheECX.

EthiopiaInstituteofAgricultureResearch(EIAR):TheAMDecarriedoutaseedproductionandsupplysurvey74withtheEIARthatresultedinAMDegrantsforirrigationequipment,tractors,andseedcleaningequipmentbeingawardedto11researchcenterstoincreasethesupplyofcertifiedseedofvarietiesthatwillhelpincreasesmallholderfarmerproductivity.

Industryassociations:TheAMDeisworkingcloselywithanumberofindustryassociations,includingtheEthiopiaApicultureBoard(EPA),EthiopiaHoneyandBeeswaxProducersandExportersAssociation(EHBPEA),theEthiopiaPulses,OilseedsandSpicesProcessersandExportersAssociation(EPOSSPEA)andtheEthiopiaCoffeeExportersAssociation(ECEA).

MinistryofTrade:TheAgriculturalMarketingDirectorateofMoTismandatedtobuildcapacityinthesupply,distribution,andmarketingofagriculturalinputs.AMDeiscollaboratingwiththeMoTtoassessregionalandinternationalmarketingopportunitiesandwarehouseregulations.

PrivateSector:TheAMDeisworkingwithseveralhundredprivatesectororganizations,includingWALN.TheEvaluationTeamlearnedfromotherFTFimplementingpartnersthatattimestheAMDe

leadershipplaysaleadandcatalyticroleamongstFTFimplementingpartnersinEthiopia,inparticularindevelopingvaluechainthinkingandpromotingmarketsolutions.Thissaid,inameetingofFTFimplementingpartnersthattheEvaluationTeamfacilitatedonDecember16,2014,75itbecameclearthatmuchmorecouldbedonetostrengthenlevelsofcoordinationandintegration,including:

72Through the delivery of the MoA’s Agriculture Sector Policy Investment Framework, 2010–2020 (PIF), the MoA has sought to reorientate donor funding from funding emergency food security projects to social protection (PSNP) and longer‐term development (AGP and SLMP). USAID’s funding for AMDe is welcomed by the MoA as part of this commitment. 73 USAID, ATA, and AMDe have forged a tripartite coordination plan with focal points assigned for each joint activity. 74 Strengthening Source Seed Production and Supply System of the National Agriculture Research System in Ethiopia. 75 The meeting was attended by three Chiefs of Party (COPs), four DCOP (Deputy COPs) and four other senior staff representing the AMDe, ENGINE, GRAD, LMD, and PRIME projects.

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CoordinateactivitiesinAGPworedasinordertoreduceduplicationwhereprojectsareworkinginthesamevaluechain,e.g.,LMDandGRAD—sheepandgoatfatteningandAMDeandGRAD—honey.

Sharesocialbehaviorchangecommunicationmaterialsonnutritionandcoordinateinterventions.

Sharelessonsingendermainstreaming. Collaborateintheorganization/participationinlocalandinternationaltradefairs.WaysinwhichtheFTFmightbettercollaboratearepresenteddiagrammaticallybelowinFigure3.Figure3:IllustrationofthecollaborativemechanismsbetweenFTFpartners

Key: Collaborationbasedongeographicoverlap Collaborationbasedvaluechainorsharedobjectives

AlthoughtheAMDehasbuilteffectivepartnerships,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDandAMDeplaycomplementaryasopposedtocentralrolesinAGPdecision‐making.Inpart,theEvaluationTeamattributesthistopartnerdifferences—organizationalculture,timingofplanningcycles,incentivestructures—butthisisalsotheresultofUSAID’ssupportforAMDeandLMDasopposedtoitssupportforAGPpooledfunding.WhilethereareinevitableconstraintsassociatedwithUSAID’sfundingarrangements,sotootheEvaluationTeamfindsstrengthsandopportunities,includingincreasedopportunitiesforinnovation,piloting,anddemonstrationthatovertimecanbedocumentedandinformevidence‐basedgoodpractice.

TheEvaluationTeamlearnedthatEthiopia’scooperativemovementaggregatesandmarketslessthan10percentofEthiopia’scereals,76and,incontrast,small‐scaleprivatesectortradersplaythemajorroleincerealaggregation,transport,marketing,andprocessing.WhilerecognizingtheAMDeworkswellwithindustryassociationsandsome500commercialfarmers,serviceproviders,traders,andprocessors,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatissuesofsustainabilitywillbebetteraddressedbyachievingabetterbalanceofsupportbetweencooperativesandprivatesectoractors.

TheEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDeworkswellwithotherFTFimplementingpartnersatfederalandregionallevelsbutthatthequalityofpartnershipappearstotailoffatworedalevel.Theprobablereasonsareoutlinedaboveanddonotneedrepeating.TheEvaluationTeam,however,findsthatUSAIDcouldhavedonemoretoforgeacoordinated,integrated,andharmonizedFTFportfolioandthatthecurrentre‐designoftheMoA’sPSNP4andAGP2potentiallyoffersUSAIDandleadFTFimplementingpartners77newandpotentiallyexcitingopportunitiesforimprovedalignment,integration,andcoordination.2.6 Sustainability

76Cerealsaccountformorethan60percentofallarablecroppinginEthiopia.77TheleadFTFimplementingprojectsareAMDe,LMD,GRAD,andPRIME.

GRADENGINE AMDe

LMD

AGP woreda Non‐AGP woreda

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Question6:Whichofthecomponentsand/orprojectactivitiescanbescaledupinthefuturebasedonmeasurable,practical,andsustainableresults?Asexpectedatthisstageoftheprojectcycle,theAMDeiswellestablishedineachofthefourAGPregionsandacrossthesixvaluechains.Inordertoaddresstheissueofsustainabilityandspecificallywhichprojectactivitiesinwhichregionscanbescaledup,theEvaluationTeamhasstructureditsfindingsaroundthefollowingfourthemesasrequiredbytheSoW: Enhancingagriculturalproductivity Accesstofinanceand Accesstomarkets Cross‐cutting

Enhancingagricultureproductivity:TheEvaluationTeamrecognizesthegoodworkdonebyAMDetoincreasesmallholderfarmerproductivity,including:inputsupply—improvedseeds,blendedfertilizers,cropprotection—andpost‐harvesthandlingpractices.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatthisworkshouldbecontinuedandexpanded.

UndertheG8NewAllianceforFoodSecurityandNutrition,78theAMDeissupportingtheMoA,ATA,andDuPontPioneer79inathree‐yearpartnershipundertheAdvancedMaizeSeedAdoptionProgram(AMSAP),whichseekstotransitionsmallholdersfromopenpollinatedtohybridmaizevarietiestoincreaseyields.Sincethelaunchwith320modelfarmersin2013,theprogramhasexpandedto3,200smallholderfarmersin2014.TheAMDealsosupportstheBH‐661Programthatwaslaunchedwith100modelfarmersin16woredasinAmharaandOromiaandhasbeensubsequentlyexpandedintoSNNPRegion.

Whilerecognizingtheimportanceofimprovingaccesstoqualityseeds,theEvaluationTeamisconcernedtheAMDeisnarrowingitsfocusonhybridmaize.Certainly,hybridmaizeout‐yieldsopenpollinatedvarieties,buttheappropriateness,affordability,andsustainabilityofthehybridmaizecanbequestioned.TheEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDeshouldprovidemorebalancedsupporttomaizegrowers,includingopenpollinatedvarietiesandsupportforfarmer‐to‐farmerexchangesandcommunityseedfairs.Accesstofinance:ItiswidelyrecognizedthatinordertoincreaseandsustainEthiopia’simpressiveagriculturesectorgrowthrates,additionalinvestmentisneeded.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDe’sworkinthisareaisofcriticalimportanceandshouldbeapriorityduringtheremaininglifeofproject.Specifically,however,theEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDeshouldfocusonsupporttobusinessplandevelopment,negotiationswithbanks,andimprovedfinancialmanagement,accounting,andauditing.TheEvaluationTeamalsofindsthattheAMDeshouldincreaseitslevelofsupporttosmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.Accesstomarkets:TheEvaluationTeamfindsthat,whilecontinuingtocompleteexistingcommitments,theAMDeshouldfocusitsremainingworktostrengthenvaluechainsfordomesticmarkets,asthesehavethepotentialtobenefitpoorersmallholderfarmers,inparticularwomen,whoareFTF’sprimarybeneficiaries.Aspartofthisreorientation,theEvaluationTeamfindanimportantroleforAMDetocontinuetostrengthenthetechnical,managerial,andadministrativeskillsandcapacitiesofPCsandFCUstosecurefinance,investininfrastructureandequipment,andthereforemoreeffectivelyaggregate,grade,cleanproduce,andsupplytraders.

78LaunchedinEthiopiaintheautumnof2012.79DuPontPioneerisinvestingUSD2.3milliontoprovidehybridmaize.AMDeissupportingthisinvestmentwithUSD1milliontosupporttraining,fielddemonstrations,directretaildistributionnetworks,commercialcreditschemes,post‐harveststorage,soilsamplingatdemonstrationsites,logistics,andmarketaccessanddevelopment.

TextBox5:AMDesupporttoSidamaEltoFCUSidamaEltoFCUwasestablishedin2004with1,000members(only22women).Ithasgrownto15,000members(1,400women),whileitscapitalhasincreasedfromEthBirr6,100to15million.AMDefacilitatedlinkstoWFPP4Pin2010.Initially,itwasnoteasytomeetqualitystandards.TheFCUis,however,nowabletosupplymaizetoWFP,theresultofAMDesupport—improvedstorage(includingmoisturetesting),shellers,cleaning,andfumigationsheets.

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Specifictothemaizevaluechain,theEvaluationTeamfindsthat,whilecontinuingtofacilitatelinksbetweenFCUsandWorldFoodProgramme’s(WFP)P4Pinitiative(seeTextBox5),theAMDealsoidentifyalternativemarketsthatlinkFCUstoprivatetradersandinthiswayspreadriskandbuildmoresustainablemarketoptions.Cross‐cutting:TheEvaluationTeamfindstheAMDecascade‐styletrainingmodules—SellMoreforMore(SM4M)—thatAMDehaspioneeredcanbescaledupandmainstreamed.OnewaytodothisistopartnerwiththeArdaitaCooperativeATVET,80OromiaRegion,asitprovidessimilartrainingandcapacity‐buildingsupporttoPCsandFCUsinthatpartofOromia.Throughsuchapartnershiparrangement,theAMDecouldnotonlybuildthecapacityofArdaita,butalsoaddressissuesofsustainability.81Inaddition,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatalltrainingshouldbepartofanintegratedandholisticcapacity‐buildinginitiativethatprovidesongoingsupporttoamorefocusednumberoforganizationsandindividuals,asonlyinthiswaywillrealimpactbeensured.2.7 ManagementQuestion7:Doestheprojecthavetherightbalanceofstaffandfundinggivenactivitypriorities?TheAMDeemploysateamof81full‐timestaffand19part‐timestaff(64menand36women)asfollows: Seniormanagers—10percent Administration,finance,andsupport—11,10,and27percentrespectively Component1:Accesstomarketsandimprovedcompetitiveness—25percent Component2:Accesstoloans—5percent Component3:Enablingenvironment—asinglestaffmember Component4:Innovationandcapitalgrants—2percent Crosscutting—10percent

TheEvaluationTeamlearnedthatalmosthalfofAMDestaffisbasedinAddisAbaba.82Inordertoconsolidatethegainsmadeduringthelifeoftheproject,theEvaluationTeamfindsthatAMDewillneedtoinvestmoreresourcesincapacitybuildingandinstitutionalsupportintheregions.Tosupportthisreorientation,theAMDemightbenefitfromthesupportofanorganizationalchangeexpertwhocanalsoaddressothertasks,includingthereviewandharmonizationofjobtitlesandclarificationofrolesandresponsibilitiesamongstpooledworkers.

TheEvaluationTeamalsorecommendstheAMDestrengthenitsM&Ecapacity,withaviewtoimprovingthequalityofitsreportingandensuringalldataarecleanedaheadofthefinalevaluation.3. RecommendationsRecommendationforResult1#1:TheAMDecontinuetoworkonthesixvaluechainsinordernottodisruptprojectimplementationduringtheremainderoftheproject,butgiveincreasedfocustoincompleteResults: Wheat—productivityandvalueadditionthroughprocessing Maize—productivity,includingopenpollinatedvarieties,improvedpost‐harvesthandling,cleaning,storage,anddiversifyingdomesticmarketoutlets

80TheCooperativeSectorDevelopmentStrategy(FCA,2012),developedwiththesupportofATA,identifiesArdaitaasapotential“centerofexcellence”forcooperativedevelopment.Whilenotcentrallylocated,itisplannedthecenterwillestablishbranchesinotherregionsandoperateasa“collegewithoutwalls.”81DuringtheEvaluationTeam’svisittoArdaita,itwaslearnedthattheAMDehadvisitedoncebutwithoutfollow‐up.82ThisfigureincludestheAMDeOromiaRegionstaffbasedwiththenationalteam,whichisnotunusualastheBureauofAgriculture,OromiaRegionissimilarlybasedinAddisAbaba.

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Coffee—post‐harvestlossreductionandqualitystandards Sesame—post‐harvestlossreductionandprocessing Chickpeas—domesticandnichemarkets(Sudan,forexample)forthecurrentlyusedvarieties

Honey—productionandproductivitythroughthedistributionofimprovedequipment,includingmodernbeehivesandtrainingandequippingofbeekeepersandnewbeekeepers

RecommendationforResult2#2:ContinueandstrengthenAMDe'sengagementinagriculturesectorfinance,inparticularcapacitybuildingforcooperativesandsmall‐scaleprivatebusinessestodevelopbusinessplans,83negotiatewithbanks,andimproveaccountingandauditingsystems.RecommendationforResult3#3:RecognizetheneedtoworkmorecloselywithotherFTFimplementingpartners,includingtheAKLDP.84WithFTFpartners,forgeacommon,integrated,andcoordinatedapproachtoagriculturesectorpolicywork.RecommendationforResult4#4:Reducethefocusongrantsfornewpartnersandconsolidatethecapacityofexistingpartnerstoimproveimpactandsustainability.Recommendationsforgenderequity#5:Continuetosupportwomenempowerment,includingwomenmembershipofcooperatives—thoughdiscontinuetheuseofincentives—andWALN,withincreasedemphasisonwomen‐ledsmall‐andmedium‐sizedagribusinessesintheregions.Setasidefundingforgenderequitywork.#6:DocumentAMDe’sworkwithwomeninTigrayandSNNPRegionsandsharewithFTFprojectswithinandbeyondEthiopia.Recommendationfornutrition#7:HandoverthenutritionworktoENGINE.Recommendationsforimprovedcollaboration#8:Continuetostrengthenpartnershipswithkeystakeholders,inparticularregionalBoAAGPteams,ATAAgricultureCommercializationClusters,andRegionalCooperativeandIndustryAssociationOfficestoacceleratetrainingandcapacitybuildingofregional,zonal,andworedastaffinagriculturemarketingthatincludescomponentsontheprivatesectoranditspotentialroleintransformingEthiopianagriculture.Ensurethatalltrainingandcapacitybuildingisfocusedandanintegralpartofaholisticcapacity‐buildingapproach.#9:CollaboratewithATAandFederalCooperativeAgency(FCA)todevelopasinglePC/FCUCertificationsystemthatintegratesandharmonizesaccreditationcriteria.Recommendationsforscaling‐up#10:SupporttheMoAandATAtoimproveproductivitythroughtheimproveddistributionofcertifiedseeds(withaminimum60percentopenpollinatedvarieties),blendedfertilizer,credit,andextensionsupport.#11:ContinuetosupporttheWFP‐P4Pinitiativebutcontinuetostrengthenanddeveloplinksbetweensmallholderfarmergroupsandresponsibleprivatesectortraders.Recommendationsformanagement

83ThebusinessplanspreparedjointlybyFCUsandAMDeareofahighquality.Forexample,theSidamaEltoFCUbusinessplansecuredloansofEthBirr7.6millionin2013,EthBirr14.4millionin2014,andEthBirr6.35millionin2015.84TheAKLDPprojectprovidesagricultureknowledge,learning,andpolicysupporttoUSAID’sFTFportfolio.

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#12:RecruitanorganizationalchangeexperttoreorientateAMDestaffing,specificallyincreasedsupportfor:farmerlevelproductionandproductivity;85domesticmarketdevelopment;andgender.ClarifytheresponsibilitiesoftheAMDeandACDI/VOCApooledstaffandasappropriatemovestafftotheregions.#13:RecruitanM&EspecialisttoimproveAMDeM&Ecapacity.Ensureallprojectdataarecleanedandthatincreasedconsiderationisgiventoprojectoutcomesandattribution,aheadofthefinalevaluation.#14:StrengthenAMDe’scapacitydevelopmentworkto15percentoftheYear5projectbudgettobuildthecapacityofpriorityPCsandFCUsandbetterequipthemtocontinueworkstartedwithAMDe.Tosupportthisreorientation,completeallwarehouseconstruction‐relatedcommitmentsandsubsequentlydisengagefromwarehouseconstruction.#15:IncluderepresentativesfromtheMoA,andpossiblytheMoTandMoI,inthefinalevaluation.Generalrecommendationsforafollow‐onprojectTheEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDprovidefollow‐onfundingforaminimumofanotherfiveyearsandthereforewelcomesUSAID’scommitmenttofundAGPComponent4:AgricultureMarketingandValueChains,sub‐componentd—strengtheningofselectedlivestockandcropvaluechains.Whilewelcomingthiscommitment,theEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDsupportforAGPbemorefocusedtoachieveFTFdevelopmentobjectives,specificallythatafollow‐onprogramoperateinasmallerZoIandwithfewerpartners.WithintheseZoI,itisrecommendedthat,inadditiontocontinuingtosupportagriculturemarketing,significantincreasedemphasisisgivento:smallholderswithholdingsoflessthanonehectare—perhaps70percentofplannedprojectbeneficiaries;sustainableagricultureproductionandproductivity,includingsoilhealth,landmanagement,andlandtenure;womeninagriculture—women‐headedandwomeninmale‐headedhouseholds;andtheprivatesector,inparticularsmall‐andmedium‐sizedbusinesses.Inaddition,theEvaluationTeamrecommendsthatUSAIDprovidesbetterlayeredandsequencedsupportwithinitsZoIthatincludessocialprotection,WASH,nutrition,health,andeducationandthat,throughthisintegratedandcoordinatedapproach,USAIDplayaleadroleinpovertyandstuntingreductionthatwillbereplicatedbyothers.TheEvaluationTeamfindsthatUSAIDshouldexerciseincreasedleadershiptocontextualizeglobalFTFindicatorsandguideFTFimplementingpartnerstokeyindicatorsthatwilltrackprogresstoaddressEthiopia’spovertyandstuntingchallenges.Specificrecommendationsforafollow‐onprojectinclude:#16:Reorientatethevaluechains:handoffcoffeeandwheattotheindustryassociationsandotherdevelopmentpartners,including,asappropriate,theEU,aUSAID‐fundedinnovationlabprojectholder,andATA;buildamoreintegratedapproachtocerealvaluechainsthatincludesmaize,86maltbarley,andsorghum—grownbylargenumbersofpoorersmallholders;expandthehoneyvaluechain—assistinglargernumbersofpoorwomenwithlittleornoland;andintegratechickpeasintoalegumes/pulsesvaluechainfordomesticmarkets—legumesofferimportantsoilhealthandnutritionoutcomes.USAIDcouldthereforesupportthefollowingvaluechains: Cereals—maize,maltbarley,andsorghum Honey—fordomesticmarkets(withanemphasisonwomen) Legumes—fordomesticmarkets

#17:Ensurethatcapacitybuilding,institutionaldevelopment,andgenderarekeycomponentsofafollow‐onproject,areappropriatelyfundedanddeliveredwithinaholisticcapacity‐buildingapproach.

85TheEvaluationTeamiskeentoseethattheUSAIDEthiopiaMissionstrengthensitssupportofproductionandproductivityandthereforeachievesamorebalancedagriculturesectorportfolio.TheEvaluationTeamisoftheviewthattheMissionisatpresenttoomarket‐focused.86Withafocusonopenpollinatedvarieties.

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#18:Reducemanagerialcomplexity—sub‐contracttheproductivity,valuechaindevelopment,aggregation,anddomesticmarketdevelopmentcomponentstospecialistNGOswithaproventrackrecordinEthiopia.Theprojectholdercanthenbetterfocusonmanagement,coordination,monitoring—datacollection,collation,analysis,documentation—learning,andchampioningevidence‐basedgoodpractice,includingwithAGP2.Thefollow‐onprojectwouldbeexpectedtoleaveEthiopianinstitutes,organizations,andbusinessesbetterequippedtoleadthetransformationprocessofEthiopianagriculture.

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