Affordable Independent and Assisted Living / Memory Care ... · Our preferred method of returning...
Transcript of Affordable Independent and Assisted Living / Memory Care ... · Our preferred method of returning...
Affordable Independent and Assisted Living / Memory Care Targeting the Middle Market
This confidential presentation is for accredited investors, subject to change without notice, and no offering of securities is made hereby.
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Affinity Living Group(Operator / Management Company)
Based in Hickory, NC Affinity Living Group (ALG) is the 11th largest operator of assisted living, and 6th
largest operator of memory care in the United States. Affinity is a healthcare company striving to provide affordable, enhanced outcomes to the senior community through operational excellence.
• By FYE 2019, Affinity will operate ~140 communities in 9 primarily southeastern states, with capacity to serve over 7,500 residents.
• ALG is led by Charles E. Trefzger, Jr., founder and CEO. Charlie’s team is actively growing the company via development and acquisitions.
• Each of the company’s senior executives has significant experience in the development, acquisition and operation of senior living residences.
• The company makes continuousinvestments in technology and other management tools to operate efficiently and provide affordable care.
COMPANY FOOTPRINT
*Arizona property have not been included in the footprint shown at right.
¾ Affinity’s footprint is predominantlylocated in the southeastern U.S.
¾With 96 facilities in operation and 28 inthe pipeline, for a total of 124 facilities.
¾ Company footprint show at rightincludes all current operations (Red Pins)and facilities in the pipeline (Blue Pins)
Footprint Detail
StateCurrent Pipeline
Total(Red Pins) (Blue Pins)
NC 79 22 101SC 2 2 4VA 3 0 3FL 4 0 4MS 1 0 1GA 6 1 7AL 1 2 3AZ* 0 1 1Total 96 28 124
Affinity is a thought leader in providing affordable, quality care for middle market seniors including state of the art independent living, assisted living, memory care and related services.
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Arizona Opportunity
With Prescott Valley as the anchor, our current objective is to build and / or acquire sufficient scale to support a Regional Director of Operations in Arizona.
• A few years ago, Affinity set out to create a presence in Arizona.
• We are currently constructing a state of the art 106-unit, 121 bed assisted living and memory care community in Prescott Valley; a 90 minute drive northwest of Phoenix.
• The community is slated to open early 2020.
• We have established a pipeline of development opportunities in other rural Arizona submarkets.
• The equity requirement for each project ranges from $4 - $7 million.
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5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Projected Growth of Age 75+ Population in the U.S.
Steady, Predictable Age Demographics
There are 19.8 million people aged 75+ in the U.S. today - growing to 23.1 million by 2020 - and 34.1 million in 2030. Many of these people will require an affordable senior living
alternative that is differentiated from what the industry typically offers today.
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Source: US Census Bureau
~$275 billion
75+ Population
Annual Growth Rate of 75+ Pop. (%)
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~$400 billion
Projected Market Size*
~$550 billion
Projected Market Size (Estimate Only)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
75+ pop. (000’s)
Growth Rate Pct.
* Assumes constant percentage of utilization
over time
2015
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A Wave of People – What About Affordability?
Unfortunately the vast majority of people in the United States have not properly planned for their retirement years. Some facts:
$95,0001
1 http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/12/heres-how-much-the-average-american-family-has-saved-for-retirement.html
3 https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/colafacts2016.html
$1,341 / mo3
2 https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/05/25/the-typical-american-has-this-much-in-home-equity.aspx
$130,0002Median SS IncomeMedian Savings Median Home Equity
The average (mean) net worth according to the US Census Bureau is $194,226. Typical monthly Social Security benefits for working class people is ~$800.
The “spend-down” math demonstrates why all-in costs of long-term assisted living should be less than $4,000 / month to attract the middle market.
Demand Drivers of Assisted Living / Memory Care
Skilled Nursing (SNF)
Specialty AcuteCare (Inpatient Rehab or LTAC)
Assisted Living (AL) /
Memory Care (MC)
Independent Living (IL)
Hospitalization (Typically
Preceded by an Emergency)
Independence In
Mainstream Community
Lowest Acuity Highest Acuity
Resident has
“aged in place”
and now needs
closer
supervision and
care than family
or other support
system can
provide in the
independent
community
Resident is not
safe to be at
home without
care and family
is not in a
position to
provide it
Resident has
“aged in place”
and may wish to
stay in IL as long
as possible; only
move on to AL
as medical
conditions
require, as it is
more expensive
Family request,
and liability
issues with
keeping the
resident in the
IL community
who needs
more
supervision
This level of
care is quite
sufficient for
those who
require help
with activities
of daily living,
and generally
are in a stable
medical
condition
Typically,
residents in AL
will continue to
age in place or
move to higher
care segments;
they will not
return to the
independent
community
Patient has
exhausted
Medicare SNF
benefit. Patient
is not safe to
return to
independent
setting. Family
seeks less costly
alternative than
self-pay SNF
Compliance with
family request,
and custodial
beds may not be
available at the
SNF (many SNF
facilities take only
transitional
patients and de-
emphasize long
term care)
Patient cannot
be discharged
safely to home.
Patient does not
meet criteria for
Medicare SNF
coverage so
cannot go to
SNF unless self
paying
Specialty
hospital
reimbursement
is generally
capitated, thus
strong economic
incentive to
move the
patient in
pursuit of short
length of stay
Hospital
reimbursement
is generally
capitated, thus
strong economic
incentive to
move the
patient in
pursuit of short
length of stay
Patient cannot
be discharged
safely to home.
Patient does not
meet criteria for
Medicare SNF
coverage so
cannot go to
SNF unless self
paying
Description of Resident /
Patient condition
necessitating transfer to an AL/MC facility
Incentive for transferring the
Resident / Patient to an
AL/MC facility
Resident makes lifestyle choices Resident is typically in a “needs” driven situation 6
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Good Sam SNF/MC
Yavapai Regional Hospital - East
Mountain Valley Inpatient /
Oupatient Rehab
LutheranChurch
Sungate VillaSenior Apts
ViewpointSr. Apts.
EquestrianCenter
PoliceDept
PV City Hall
PublicLibrary
WalMartSupercenter
Kohl’s
Fry’s / Mixed Use Retail
Prescott ValleyEvent Center
KMartSafeway
CVS
GlassfordAssisted
Living
HarkinsTheatre 14 Plex
HamptonInn
Good SamIL
E Lakeshore Dr
N. GlassfordHill Road
State Route 69
Viewpoint Dr
Main St
Chili’s
Denny’s
E Florentine Rd
N LakeValley Rd
Liberty Traditional
School
Park Ave
Yavapai CountyCommunity Health
Walgreens
WellsFargo
AutoZone
Super 8
Arizona Innof PV
Sonic
LonesomeValley
Brewing
Boot BarnChinese
Restaurant
McDonald’s
Subway Jack in the Box
Burger King
Taco Bell
BuffaloWild WingsWendy’s
Garcia’s Mexican
Restaurant
PandaExpress
Fry’s GasStation
SonoraQuest Labs
West YavapaiBH Clinic
XzylaCorpComputer
Repair
Va
Valley View Apratments
Christian ChurchMontessori
Charter School
Grayson House Church of
Latter Day Saints
St. GermaineCatholic Church
Albertson’s
Women’s Clinic
Text
Subject Site
Parcel103-02-717M
WindsongDrive
Representative Location: Prescott Valley, AZ
We focus on underserved, rural communities where a new presence is welcomed and adds value to the local market.
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Windsong Senior Living is under construction
Opening spring 2020: 106 units / 121 beds
Prescott Valley, AZ
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Full Complement of Models
FULL COMPLIMENT OF MODELS
Mon
thly Ren
tal R
ates
• High‐end private pay markets
Premier Model
• Middle income markets• Typically 11‐50% Medicaid
Traditional Model
• Low to moderate income markets
• Typically 61‐80% Medicaid
Affordable Model
Affinity has a full complement of models to address the income / wealth profile of the local market.
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Representative Sources and Uses
Actual costs will vary by project
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Representative 5 Year Proforma
We typically target an unlevered development yield >=10% (stabilized NOI divided by total project cost)
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Representative 10 Year Investor Cash Flows / Returns
We offer investors a preferred return, followed by return of capital, then split of cash flows.
Our preferred method of returning capital is via agency financing upon stabilization. Then hold for long term cash flow / residual appreciation. Alternatively, the assets may be sold.
Projected equity multiple in the 2’s translates into 12% - 20% IRR. The actual result is sensitive to timing and proceeds from the refinance.
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Key Investment Risks
• Investors may lose a portion or all of their investment. We are viewing equity investments as risk capital. There are no guarantees that prospective new development sites under consideration will be constructed, leased up, or stabilized. There are no guarantees that the same leverage strategies employed for Windsong Senior Living will be available or optimal for projects inthe current pipeline. It is possible equity requirements for new developments may change prior to closing on construction financing.
• Lease-up risk, both timing and ability to achieve targeted rental rates. Our strategy is to provide a sustainably affordable alternative to what we perceive as primarily higher-end properties managed by other industry participants. While we believe market demand projections are conservative based on our experience in the industry and verified via an independent feasibility study, our actual stabilization results will not be known until the project is built, licensed, and fully operational.
• Operating margins. Operating margins impact cash flow, and therefore the project’s ability to successfully return investor capital. Cash flow is affected by a number of factors, some of which are outside of management’s control. These factors include the effectiveness of labor scheduling, cost and availability of qualified labor, food and beverage costs, liability insurancepremiums, utilities, and in general, variances in actual fixed or variable costs from our projections.
• General liability during operations. By the very nature of the business, people experience deteriorating health circumstances and die in assisted living and memory care facilities. In certain instances, litigants may claim that this is due to the neglect of the operating company. Affinity views properly and responsibly dealing with these complaints as a normal component of managing the assisted living / memory care business. In addition to staff training and education, Affinity mitigates its risk via maintenance of sufficient liability insurance, and a separation of the real estate (PropCo) and operating (OpCo) entities.
• Construction and licensure risk. We will be building this community with a qualified general contractor who has significant experience in the senior living space. While we intend to contractually cap construction hard costs, development projects havean inherent risk of construction defects, overall cost overruns, delays, disputes and/or other issues which may increase our basis in the asset and/or delay the successful opening of the community. There is a risk that in spite of best efforts and timelyapplication, the Arizona Department of Health Services may delay granting the facility licensure concurrent with receipt of acertificate of occupancy.
• Limited barriers to entry. There are limited barriers to new construction in the State of Arizona. It is possible that targeted submarkets may become oversupplied in the future.
Novo Management Bio
Jeffrey Fleischer • Since 2012, focused on the senior living industry, including sourcing capital and structuring the acquisition and development of
investment grade communities.• SVP of Acquisitions for Spirit Finance (NYSE:SRC) from 2003 - 2010, responsible for an acquisition team originating over $3.7
billion of single tenant net lease transactions.• VP of Acquisitions for Franchise Finance Corp. of America (NYSE:FFA) / GE Capital Franchise Finance from 1994 – 2001;
responsible for originating over $700 million of net lease and mortgage loan investments.• Sales and credit officer of Chase Manhattan Bank from 1989 – 1992. Primary focus on commercial and residential lending. • Received his BA in Economics from Boston University in 1989; and MBA from Washington University in St. Louis in 1994.
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For additional information, contact:
Jeffrey Fleischer 602-448-8855