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ACADEMY OF ECONOMIC STUDIES FROM BUCHAREST
C. S. U. D.
DOCTORAL SCHOOL FOR BUSINESS MANAGEMENT
DOCTORAL THESIS
ABSTRACT
Dynamics of business systems in crisis conditions
Scientific coordinator:
PhD. Bob Constantin
Author:
Ionescu M. Alexandru Cosmin
Bucharest,
2016
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CONTENS OF THE ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS
I. CONTENTS OF DOCTORAL THESIS..........................................................................3
II. KEY WORDS…….……………………………………………..……………………….6
III. ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS …………………………………….…...…..6
IV.SYNTHESIS………………………………………………………………………….….8
CHAPTER I – BUSINESS SYSTEM INTO CRISIS CONDITIONS .............................8
CHAPTER II – EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT
UPON BUSINESS SYSTEMS……………………………………………………………..9
CHAPTER III COMMERCIAL POLITICS INTO CURRENT ECONOMIC
CONFIGURATION………..……………………………………………………………….9
CHAPTER IV COMMERCIAL REPORTS IN ECONOMIC
BLOCKS……….....................................................................................................................10
CHAPTER V CHANGES AND TRENDS INTO BUSINESS SYSTEMS……….……...11
CHAPTER VI CONFIGURATION AND RECONFIGURATIONS OF
COMMERCIAL POLITICS ON THE PETROLEUM
MARKET…………………………………………………………………………………....11
BIBLIOGRAPHY.…………………………………………………..……………………...13
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CONTENTS OF DOCTORAL THESIS
INTRODUCTION
The wherewithal into chossing of reserach theme
CHAPTER I – BUSINESS SYSTEM IN CRISIS CONDITIONS
1.1. The role of commercial exchanges into effort for overtaking the crisis
1.2. Stimulation of commercial exchanges, as a solution-measure for exit from crisis
1.3. Politics for development of competitiveness into crisis conditions. Measures and
regulations for stimulation of exports
1.3.1. Measures and regulations for stimulation of exports
CHAPTER II – EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC-FINANCIAL CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT
UPON THE BUSINESS SYSTEMS
2.1. Economic-financial crisis - causes, particularities, propagations and effects
2.2. Repercussions of economic-financial crisis reflected at the level of commerical
indicators
2.3. Costs of crisis and answers of the scientific world
CHAPTER III COMMERCIAL POLITICS AND CURRENT ECONOMIC
CONFIGURATION
3.1. Commercial politics - new coordinates
3.2. Changes of objectives
3.3. Chains of purchase and theories of commerce
CHAPTER IV COMMERCIAL REPORTS IN ECONOMIC BLOCKS
4.1. Dimensions of European commercial politics
4.2. Ratio of forces between economic blocks and effects of globalization upon them
CAPITOLUL V CHANGES AND TRENDS INTO BUSINESS SYSTEM
5.1. Current protectionism , a new face of commercial politics
5.2. Evolution of commercial protectionism associated to crisis
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5.3. Mutations of Romanian external commerce with effect upon economic agents
5.3.1. Methodology for elaboration of study
5.3.2. Analysis of Romanian external commerce during the period of 1995-2014
5.3.3. Descriptive statistics and testing of indicators' normality
5.3.4. Evolutions of imports and exports of goods and services
5.3.5. Dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services
5.3.6. The weight of goods and services, totally exports and imports
5.3.7. Values indicators of GNP and external marketing
5.3.8. Indicators of exchange ratio
5.3.9. Coefficient of elasticity of the export and import from Romania
5.3.10. Analysis of interdependence of indicators - method of correlation matrixes
CHAPTER VI CONFIGURATIONS AND RECONFIGURATIONS OF COMMERCIAL
POLITICS ON THE PETROLEUM MARKET
6.1. Structure of petroleum market. Features of OPEC
6.2. Consumption and global production of petroleum on areas during the periof of 2004-
2010
6.3. Analysis of petroleum market at the level of 2014
6.4. Main current configurations on petroleum markets
6.5. Controversy concerning the price of petroleum as defining element of commercial
politics
6.5.1. Markets of marketing of petroleum - influence factor of petroleum price
6.5.2. Factors which contribute to volatility of global prices of petroleum
6.5.3. Commerce of arbitrage
6.5.4. Assymetry of transfer for prices
6.6. Main defining actors of Romanian oiler market
6.6.1.Petrom
6.6.2. Rompetrol
6.6.3.Lukoil
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6.7. Dynamic behaviour of fuel price
6.7.1.Evolution of retail prices of the gasoline and diesel in Romania
6.8. Models for assessment of gross internal prodcut related with export and import of
fuels, focused on elasticity and determination of paces which are associated directly and
indirectly
6.8.1. From elasticity to coeficient of elasticity
6.8.2.Elasticity of GNP of Romania's economy related with export/import alltogether and
effected in fuels
6.8.3. Econometric models focused on paces and elasticity of Romanian economy
CONCLUSIONS
BIBLIOGRAPHY
ABBREVIATION
LIST OF TABLES
LIST OF IMAGES
APPENDIXES
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II. KEY WORDS:
CRISIS; BUSINESS SYSTEM; COMMERCIAL POLITICS; ECONOMIC BLOCKS; MARKET
OF PETROLEUM; DYNAMICS; STRUCTURE
III. ABSTRACT OF DOCTORAL THESIS
Commercial politics has known profound transformations, as a result of development
of global financial crisis, with manifests at the level of micro-economy and macro-economy.
The economic crisis has induced a fluctuation of raw material prices, of final economic goods
with decisive impact upon the stability of economy and, implicitly of people buying power.
The main studies concerning the current crisis refer to complex phenomena and
triggering factors for crisis – symbiosis of factors of institutional, social, economic nature –
which emphasize the empiric pragmatism which is specific to neoclassicism and statist
activism. The scientific intercession has aimed the outlining of crisis referring ton specialty
literature. Therefore it is considered that the current crisis represents an effect of the failure of
financial markets in fulfilment of their functions for society and brings a change of paradigm
which influences the prices behaviour, the intensity of crisis being able to be determined by
reference to financial markets.
The paper also develops the concept of globalization into analysis of business
systems, as the main factor which supports and influences from structural point of view the
commercial politics. The Monetary International Fund (FMI), from exclusive quantitative
perspective, approaches globalization as a process of “growth of economic interdependencies
of countries from all over the world”, of diversification of “transactions of goods and
services”, “liberalization of international capital‟s flows”, wider access to technologic
products, with effect of entrainment at the level of commercial politics. Complementarily, the
World Bank emphasizes the qualitative character of economic growth, defining the
globalization as a process by which is facilitate the capacity of initiation by residents from
different countries of voluntarily economic transactions, relations which are based on
freedoms, capacities and capabilities.
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The paper approaches gradually the concept of commerce and commercial politics.
Initially it refers to specialty as determinant of international commercial exchanges
development.
According to modern theories of international commerce, the international exchanges
are viewed as a “request of diversities”, the accent being on eclecticism and adaptability to
needs and specific of consumer, and differences between countries concerning the costs of
production, the pace of technical innovations, the nature of marketed products, modality of
storage of capital have the role to diversify the offer of economic goods.
The scientific intercession has aimed the development of fundamental research into
field of business politics. The scientific objectives are: analyse of the impact of economic-
financial crisis upon the economic systems, identification of crisis effects, coverage area, and
also of the main costs of the crisis, especially of the repercussions on the plan of business
politics. Another specific objective has represented the analysis of commercial politics into
the context of the current commercial system, identifying of the new trends of business
system and adjustment of current commercial politics.
The originality of analysis by coefficients of elasticity concerning the macro-
aggregates of Romania‟s economy (PIB-Gross National Product, CF, FBCF- Gross
Formation of Permanent Capital, etc.) starting from the export and import of fuels generates
relatively professional models, but also with problems of validations for periods of economic
developments more calm. The specific of this research which is centered on the principle
caeteris paribus which is applied also for the factors, but also to records from databases
relativizes the credibility on medium term of the econometric models, as they seem to be seen
as being lapsable and even questionable.
The adopted scientific research can be viewed as a quantitative-deductive strategy. Even if
the theories which stand to critic process to which they are subject to as a result of deductive
research, are temporary accepted and become the subject of a perpetual critic assessment
(Blaikie, 2000). The deductive approach was attached to a quantitative research, which,
according to Punch (2005) aims rather the deductive testing of hypothesis and theories
towards the qualitative research which wants the exploring of a theme for research and
generates hypotheses of inductive manner. The used and presented data within the paper are
the most recent and came from official statistic reports, thereby allow the performance of
comparative analysis, but the impediment is that they do not facilitate the performance of an
analysis for a significant period of time, which is wider for the issue subject to research.
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IV.SYNTHESIS
The first chapter, “Business system into crisis conditions” performs the anatomy of
commercial crisis and presents the importance of process of globalization in development of
exchanges at globally level, as a reaction of request of economic goods, effect of
competitiveness of economic goods, on the one hand, and on the other hand of promotion.
Thereby, as a result of intensification of globalization processes and regional integration,
liberalization of commercial and investment regimes, it is observed a growth of international
commercial flows, with positive repercussions upon grown of GNP, employment, evolution
of scientific research and top technologies, social politics, adjustments of structural nature at
the level of economic politics, which are specific for stage of growth of economic cycle.
The second sub-chapter, “Stimulation of commercial exchanges, as a measure or solution for
exit from crisis” presents the main advantages of specialization for intensification of
commercial exchanges and the main theories with positive repercussions upon dynamics of
commercial exchanges. An emphasized element in this sub-chapter is the role which the
commercial politics of a state exercises upon the size and modality of distribution of earnings
from international commerce. Thus, in time, the world‟s countries had to choose between
applying the protectionist commercial politics and promotion of free exchange, depending on
interests of moment and politic, economic and social background. As the interdependencies
between countries had become more and more accentuated, the external commerce makes
that element of competitiveness, of efficacy of economic politics to become primary, either as
a result of growing the weighting of external commerce in GNP, either as a result of
globalization of economic goods among consumers. Thus, the participation of world‟s states
to international commerce is in direct ratio with economic potential, the level of economic
development, international competitiveness of products which are performed by independent
companies, and their strategies of business. Into current background, the reformation of
commercial politics, as a measure of supporting for resume of economic growth, will
emphasize the creative, innovative character of economic products, which is doubled by
sustainable, durable and economic character. The third sub-chapter, “Politics for development
of competitiveness into crisis conditions. Measures and regulations for stimulation of
exports” insists on stimulation of competitiveness on economy in its assembly, by adoption
of stimulation measures concerning the entrepreneurship, the growing of services role in
commerce structure, concentration of human capital, on creativity and innovation. Thus, there
are identified a series of measures and regulations for stimulation of exports: grants for
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exports, the system for industrial areas of export, financing of export, elimination of
commercial barriers, organizations for promotion of commerce, improvement of investment
climate, politics for bringing the direct foreign investments, etc.
The second chapter, “Effects of economic-financial crisis and its impact upon the
commercial systems” is made up from three sub-chapters and presents the main
confrontations of ideas regarding the current crisis. Thus, it is emphasized that current crisis
is caused by the existence of some economic dysfunctional forms – is the case of financial
international institutions which did not use the alert systems for risks of systemic nature
which are associated to financial engineerings – with ample manifestations, both into plan of
real economy, with boomerang effect at the level of markets, and on the plan of nominal
economy, with effect upon governmental politics. The effects of economic and financial
crisis upon the commerce and commercial politics are viewed under the aspect of changes
which intervened in the volume and structure of commerce by call to indicators such as,
balance of current account, balance of financial account, exports, and imports. For reduction
of crisis‟ effects and as a result of the costs, it is necessary the growth of coherence and
congruence of governmental politics, institutional reformation, from perspective of economic
politics and theoretic fundaments.
The third chapter, “Commercial Politics in current economic configuration” analyses the
modality in which measures of commercial politics are being experienced into field of
commercial and cooperation relations, both on microeconomic level, by development of a
certain climate for development of economic activity, and on macroeconomic level, by
assuring of a frame for expansion of commercial exchanges. For supporters of “theory of
bicycle” concerning the deregulation of commerce, the crisis has induced a depression of the
progress associated with commerce liberalization.
The chains of supplying had remodelled the international commerce; dispersion of production
networks has conducted to significant investments in transports and infrastructure in order to
deal with transit of goods destined to processing. The off-shore and outsourcing had affected
the social panorama bot at positive level, as a result of benefices brought to welfare –
development of workplaces in emergent countries, but also at negative level – most of salary
deviations between developed countries and the developing ones. Thus, the global chains of
supplying introduce new microeconomic dimensions which come to supplement the
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macroeconomic mechanisms of shocks transmission explaining the major effect of crisis
upon international commerce.
The global commercial process is subject to reassessment in order to project a viable system
which responds to the main current challenges which consist in promotion of an equitable
system between countries, the avoidance of protectionist practices, in other words easing the
development of external commerce and apparition of new outlets for economic goods
manufactured in conditions of competitiveness and on principles of economic sustainability.
On chapter IV, “The commercial reports in economic blocks”, it is emphasized the fact that
practiced commercial politics by the EU is a politics which is based on strict and uniform
rules, liberalization of commerce on global scale, assurance of welfare development in EU.
Also, in this chapter it is presented on theoretic level the features of regionalism and
multilateralism and the lack of a consensus concerning the desirability of a certain regime.
Concerning the EU into background of international commerce, although its detains the
highest market share (participation at the level of international production increasing during
the period of 1995-2005), its position has deteriorated once with crisis in a higher ratio than
USA, but also the advantage in comparison with at the level of goods based on intensive use
of knowledge.
Developments imposed on market and the ones from international level from the last period
had modified the structure of international business system in period of post-crisis. From
institutional perspective, the reduced progress of multilateral commercial negotiations of
Commerce Global Organizations (OMC) and difficulties to reach a consensus concerning the
Doha Development Agenda had promoted the proliferation of regional and bilateral
commercial negotiations. EU had negotiated agreements of free exchanges with USA
(Transpacific commerce and partnership of investments), Canada and Japan.
The developments induced on markets have been caused by emergent economies, even if
their dynamic of growing did not come back anymore at the level of pre-crisis of 7-8%, they
had registered a high increment of GNP towards the increment registered by advanced
economies. During the period of 2000-2012, the ratio of these economies into global
commerce had majored from 33% to 48% (WTO, 2014). At the level of emergent economies
the eclecticism is high, China being in top 3 of commercial powers from world, and other
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markets of frontier had made their presence felt at the level of international commerce:
economies from Asia, Mexico and Turkey.
Chapter V, “Changes and trends in commercial system” starts with a deep analysis of
commercial protectionism in current form and emphasizes the visible dropping of rating and
para-rating protectionism, and presents the modern forms of protectionism which attach to
technology, research and innovation, education and human capital, etc. Despite the economic
arguments in favour of free exchange and intensification of commercial exchanges, the
protectionism is still widely practiced by developed countries, which are emergent or
developing, for factors such as: employment, respectively, human capital.
In essence, the current form of protectionism is identified mainly with activity of politic
lobby, of subtle use of a gearing of manipulation or negotiation, effusion of markets in the
favour of some groupings or groups of interests. The reasons of protectionism result from
desire to protect the infantile industries, to prevent the unemployment, keep of payment
balance and of objectives of fiscal policy.
The applicative part had consisted in analysis of data concerning the evolution of Romanian
external commerce during the period of 1995-2014, being identified the interdependencies
between indicators which are subject to study, that in the end to be suggested ways of
improvement of tools of commercial politics.
Chapter VI “Configurations and reconfigurations of commercial politics on petroleum
market” has a strong applicative character, as result of structural analysis and in dynamics of
petroleum market. The empiric research upon this kind of market is based on many
econometric models which focus on paces and elasticity in order to estimate the GNP in
report with export and import of fuels at the level of Romania.
The predecessor sub-chapters of empiric analysis examine the importance of petroleum at the
level of energy market, the petroleum being considerate the most controversial non-
renewable source of energy, both as result of price variation, and for its intrinsic value.
The continuous fluctuation of petroleum price is the effect of new dimensions of petroleum
market and not of a crisis of petroleum, but rather of a connection between market of
petroleum and financial market, between politics and economic, between strategic and
geopolitics.
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The market for commercialization of petroleum is strongly developed, transparent and
presents a high degree of sophistication. Certain types of petroleum are commercialized on
seeing markets and are used as pattern, other types of petroleum being assessed having as
basis the pattern prices (the differences which take in consideration the delivery place and
quality of petroleum). The refineries can influence the price differences between different
types of petroleum as a result of purchase behaviour.
Seen on global level and in its dynamic, the evolution of petroleum price is determined
exclusively by the needs of development of economy by possibilities of earning of players on
stock exchange market on term, respectively by evolution of shares‟ price which is generated
by the degree of trust of players, on the one hand, and by capacity of manufacturing, the
value of exports and imports on global level, on the other hand. For that purpose, in
subchapter “Controversies concerning the prices of petroleum as defining element of current
commercial politics” is examined the connection between market on term and seeing prices
for barrels of petroleum, taking into consideration the institutional background in which the
price is established.
The subchapter, “The main economic agents/defining actors of Romanian market” makes in
incursion on petroleum market from Romania, analysing the main competitors, their
evolution on this market and of energetic products and possibilities of development in
consensus with current challenges concerning the future of energetic politics. Another
examined element is the price of fuels on Romanian market, being considerate one of the
smallest from entire Europe. In reality, expressed by power of buying, the price of fuels from
Romania is much bigger, varying depending on exchange value of dollar, by fiscal politics of
state (taxes and duties), but also by different politics of prices of companies which activate on
this market. But, in Romania, is often happen that prices from fuel pump to be majored only
as result of growing the international share of petroleum, which represents an agreement
between producers, within oligopoly market or an abuse of collective dominant position.
Thus, described situation is an a settlement of cartel type, but rather is classified in category
of “abuse of collective dominant position”.
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