2013: Issue 388, Week: 16th - 19th SeptemberA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)

WISE M NEY

HAPPY ONAM

16TH SEPTEMBER

®

Bra

nd

sm

c 2

11

(Saurabh Jain)

Contents

Equity 4-7

Derivatives 8-9

Commodity 10-13

Currency 14

IPO 15

Fixed Deposit 16

Mutual Fund 17-18

EDITORIAL STAFF

Editor Saurabh Jain

Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla

+Editorial Team

Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka

Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth

Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi

Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi

Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey

Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra

Mudit Goyal

Content Editor Kamla Devi

Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal

Research Executive Sonia Bamba

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lobal stock markets gained in the week gone by on the optimism that the

global economy is strengthening. Moreover, the bulls got support from the Gpositive reaction to the latest developments regarding the situation in Syria.

The positive economic data out of China, soft U.S. jobs report and the strong

Australian consumer sentiment also contributed to the global upward rally. On the one

hand, Fed is expected to taper its bond purchasing program while on the other hand

Japan Finance minister has announced that it will consider offering a stimulus

package to boost the economy without issuing any new bonds to finance it.

On the domestic front, Indian industrial growth for the month of July 2013 saw

expansion of 2.6% against 0.1% contraction in the corresponding period a year before.

New RBI chief Dr. Raghuram Rajan, who is known for his independent views globally, is

about to deliver his maiden mid-quarterly monetary review policy on 20th September.

Investors are looking forward to the RBI announcement as to know how newly

appointed governor sees Indian metrics and what lies in arsenal to stem the fall of

rupee and to support growth.

In this coming week, the domestic market may behave in a volatile fashion as a result

of the two important events i.e. U.S. Fed announcement and RBI policy. International

investors are again flocking back to Indian equities as a result of the recent RBI

announcements and some of the important bills being passed by the government in

the just concluded monsoon session. Investors are also positive about Insurance bill

that is expected to be tabled in the parliament in the winter session.

On the commodities front, the geopolitical risk of Syria little bit faded and the entire

world has shifted the focus to Fed meeting this week and market may remain volatile

till then. Apart from Fed meeting, some high importance events and economic

releases are also scheduled this week, which may give important direction to the

commodities. Some of the releases are CPI of euro zone, UK and US, German Zew

Survey, FOMC and Switzerland rate decision, GDP of New Zealand etc. Commodities

are most likely to trade with the negative bias. Bullion counter may lose its shine

further due to lack of physical buying. Yellow metal rose 70% from December 2008 to

June 2011 as the U.S. central bank pumped more than $2 trillion into the financial

system by buying debt. Now if it goes for tapering the purchase program, then we may

see correction in gold in short to mid run. Agri commodities can also see more

fluctuation in the prices ahead of the expiry of September contract.

From The Desk Of Editor

4

NOTES:

1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".

2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.

3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.

TREND SHEET

Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.

Price Trend Trend S/l

Changed Changed

SENSEX 19782 DOWN 01.08.13 19317 19200 18900 18660

S&P NIFTY 5851 DOWN 01.08.13 5728 5640 5580 5520

CNX IT 8203 UP 18.07.13 7306 7800 7600 7400

CNX BANK 10159 DOWN 13.06.13 11687 9600 10000 10300

ACC 1027 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1020 1050 1080

BHARTIAIRTEL 329 UP 12.09.13 329 320 315 310

BHEL 135 UP 05.09.13 138 130 125 120

CIPLA 438 UP 18.07.13 413 420 410 400

DLF 149 DOWN 21.03.13 239 150 160 170

HINDALCO 111 UP 29.08.13 107 100 97 95

ICICI BANK 951 UP 12.09.13 951 920 900 880

INFOSYS 3066 UP 18.07.13 2800 2900 2850 2800

ITC 337 DOWN 07.08.13 322 325 335 345

L&T 815 DOWN 23.05.13 945 810 840 860

MARUTI 1321 DOWN 13.06.13 1457 1350 1400 1420

NTPC 139 DOWN 20.06.13 140 140 145 148

ONGC 279 DOWN 13.06.13 309 275 285 290

RELIANCE 875 UP 12.09.13 875 850 840 830

TATASTEEL 303 UP 22.08.13 274 280 270 260

NEWS

EX DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE16-SEP-13 PURVA FINAL DIVIDEND RE.1/- PER SHARE16-SEP-13 ANSALHSG DIVIDEND RE 0.80 PER SHARE16-SEP-13 BALKRISIND DIVIDEND - RS.1.50 PER SHARE16-SEP-13 MINDACORP DIV OF RS. 2/- PER EQUITY SHARE16-SEP-13 GMDCLTD DIVIDEND RS 3/- PER SHARE16-SEP-13 BHUSANSTL DIVIDEND RE.0.50 PER SHARE16-SEP-13 FINANTECH FINAL DIVIDEND RS.2/- PER SHARE16-SEP-13 MCDOWELL-N DIVIDEND RS.2.50 PER SHARE17-SEP-13 ONGC DIVIDEND - RE 0.50 PER SHARE17-SEP-13 CENTURYPLY DIVIDEND - RE 0.25/- PER SHARE17-SEP-13 BGRENERGY DIVIDEND - RS 7/- PER SHARE18-SEP-13 NOIDATOLL FINAL DIVIDEND - RE 1/- PER SHARE18-SEP-13 JAGRAN FINAL DIVIDEND - RS 2/- PER SHARE18-SEP-13 SUNILHITEC DIVIDEND RS 1.20/- PER SHARE18-SEP-13 TECHNOFAB DIVIDEND - RS 2.25/- PER SHARE18-SEP-13 MCX DIVIDEND RS.12/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 TECHM DIVIDEND - RS 5/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 WELSPUNIND DIVIDEND RS.2/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 BINANIIND DIVIDEND RS.3/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 ESSARPORTS DIVIDEND - RE 0.50/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 WELCORP DIVIDEND RE.0.50 PER SHARE19-SEP-13 SUNPHARMA DIVIDEND - RS 2.50/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 GSPL DIVIDEND RE.1/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 GITANJALI FINAL DIVIDEND - RS 3/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 STCINDIA DIVIDEND - RS 2/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 PVR DIVIDEND RE 1/- PER SHARE19-SEP-13 NMDC FINAL DIVIDEND - RS 4/- PER SHARE20-SEP-13 NATIONALUM DIVIDEND RE.0.50 PER SHARE23-SEP-13 JINDALSAW DIVIDEND RE.1/- PER SHARE

FORTHCOMING EVENTS

DOMESTIC NEWSPharmaceuticals• India's industrial output rose by 2.6 per cent in July, as against a

deceleration of 0.1 per cent in the corresponding month of 2012.• India's exports registered a double-digit growth of around 13 percent for

the second-consecutive month in August 2013 to 26.14 billion from the

$23.13 billion in August last year, while imports fell by one percent to $

37.05 billion from the $37.31 billion last August, bringing down the trade

deficit to $10.91 billion.Power• The Power Grid Corporation of India Limited (PGCIL) is planning a capex of

`20,000 crore per year for the next five years into the power transmission

sector, according to a senior official from the company.Realty & Construction• Parsvnath Developers has dropped its plan to sell a prime land in

Connaught Place and will now develop a commercial building on the plot at a

cost of around ̀ 70 crore to achieve better sales realisation and brand value.Information Technology• Tech Mahindra has signed an agreement with Volvo Car Corporation (Volvo

Cars). The IT company will provide the automobile company with a service

to maintain and develop a range of applications that can increase

efficiency and reduce costs.Capital Goods• KEC International has bagged orders worth Rs 1,004 crore including four

orders totalling ̀ 760 crore in transmission business from India and abroad.Mining & Minerals• Coal India (CIL) has decided to set 16 coal washeries in its various

subsidiaries aimed at making the fossil fuel more competitive.Automobile• Tata Motors expanded its product portfolio in Nepal with the launch of

Xenon Pick-up there. The vehicle would be available in both single cab and

dual cab versions in Nepal.• Tata Motors has entered the Indonesian market with the launch of three

passenger vehicles. The company's wholly-owned subsidiary PT Tata

Motors Distribusi Indonesia (TMDI) has introduced Tata Aria, Tata Vista and

Tata Safari Storme in the Indonesian market.Healthcare• Piramal Healthcare is investing $11 million `70 crore) at its Morpeth, UK

facility to triple the production capacity for hormonal products, including

contraceptive pills and hormone replacement therapies.Metal• JSPL promoter Naveen Jindal is looking to set up power plants in Liberia,

Senegal and Botswana not just to expand the group's presence in Africa,

but also to secure a "sense of fulfilment".

INTERNATIONAL NEWS• US wholesale inventories inched up by 0.1 percent in July following a 0.2

percent decrease in June. Economists had expected inventories to rise by

0.3 percent.• US initial jobless claims dropped to 292,000, a decrease of 31,000 from

the previous week's unrevised figure of 323,000. The notable decrease

came as a surprise to economists, who had been expecting jobless claims

to climb to 330,000.• US consumer credit increased by $10.4 billion in July following a

downwardly revised increase of $11.9 billion in June. Economists had

expected credit to increase by about $12.3 billion compared to the $13.8

billion increase originally reported for the previous month.• US non-farm payroll employment increased by 169,000 jobs in August

compared to economist estimates for an increase of about 180,000 jobs.

The report also showed a notable downward revision to the pace of job

growth in July, with the revised data showing an addition of 104,000 jobs

compared to the previously reported increase of 162,000 jobs.• US import prices were unchanged in August after ticking up 0.1 percent in

July. Economists had been expecting import prices to rise by about 0.5

percent. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said export prices fell by 0.5

percent in August following a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month.

Export prices had been expected to edge up by 0.1 percent. • Eurozone Industrial output fell 1.5 percent in July from a month ago,

reversing a 0.6 percent rise in June, Eurostat reported. It was forecast to

fall by 0.3 percent.

*Stock price has been adjusted according to the Bonus ratio 1:2

®

5

BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)

SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)

SMC Trend

SMC Trend

FMCGHealthcare

FTSE 100CAC 40

Auto BankRealty

Cap GoodsCons Durable

Oil & GasPower

NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500

NikkeiStrait times

Hang SengShanghai

INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)

ITMetal

Down SidewaysUp

SMC Trend

Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500

GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)

INDIAN INDICES (% Change)

®

-75.80-288.20

1280.10

0.00

2704.50

547.80

0.00 14.10

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

FII Activity MF Activity

3.00

2.66 2.682.48 2.49

2.93

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap

Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500

-0.47

4.16

2.12

5.61

2.20

4.46

2.31

0.75

3.27

2.90

5.96

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index

Cons Durable Index

FMCG Index Healthcare Index

IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index

Power Index Realty Index

1.78

2.71

2.05

4.07

1.96

1.40

4.73

0.63

1.73

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.

FTSE 100 CAC 40

7.97 7.977.05

6.265.46

-4.77

-3.39

-1.81-1.01 -0.83

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

Tata Power Co.

Larsen & Toubro

H D F C ITC M & M B H E L O N G C Dr Reddy's Labs

TCS ICICI Bank

10.459.86

8.46 8.33 8.23

-5.17

-3.91 -3.91-3.24

-1.66

-6.00

-4.00

-2.00

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Punjab Natl.Bank

UltraTech Cem.

I D F C Tata Power Co.

DLF B H E L Cairn India IndusInd Bank

O N G C Dr Reddy's Labs

Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis

6

® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline

Face Value (`) 2.00

52 Week High/Low 317.85/199.00

M.Cap (` Cr.) 2238.41

EPS (`) 39.85

P/E Ratio (times) 5.81

P/B Ratio (times) 1.58

Dividend Yield (%) 0.65

Stock Exchange BSE

` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 Mar 2014 Mar 2015

Revenue 3,373.82 3,716.13 4,367.23

EBITDA 668.86 740.74 879.23

EBIT 556.66 572.31 674.60

Pre-Tax Profit 533.80 544.17 628.81

Net Profit 349.91 370.23 419.61

EPS 36.20 37.91 43.92

BVPS 149.29 184.93 226.09

ROE 27.41 21.81 20.59

(E) (E)

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale management does not have any hedges for the

dollar ($) as it has a natural hedge due to raw •Balkrishna Industries Limited mainly operates in material imports. the tyres segment with a focus on manufacturing

•The current order-book for the company stands at range of Off-Highway Specialty Tyres. These

about two months, i.e. 22000-23000 MT. specialty tyres are meant for agricultural,

industrial, material handling, construction, •Geography wise, the revenue breakup - Europe

earthmoving (OTR), forestry, lawn and garden around 51%, US 17%, India 11%, and the balance

equipments and All Terrain Vehicles (ATV). is from the rest of world.

•For FY14, the management has given a guidance Valuation

of volumes at around 145,000 - 150,000 MT The company has been a steady performer in the last (growth of 7-10%), which would be ~70% few years in terms of revenue, margins and Profits. It utilization. The management expects to meet its is catering to a very large global market and can guidance as Original Equipment Manufacturers maintain its margins. We expect the stock to see a (OEM) penetration is likely to increase. An

price target of ̀ 293 in one year time frame, based on increase in focus on India and newer markets like

estimated FY14E EPS of 37.91 on the three year Russia and Commonwealth of Independent States

average P/Ex of 7.72.(CIS) is likely to drive more volumes.

•After the complete ramp-up at Bhuj plant, the

Company's capacity will be 276,000 MT at the end

of FY15. At the end of FY14, it will be 236,000 MT.

At present Bhuj's capacity is 120,000 MT. Last year

the company did 15,000 MT from Bhuj. The

company has incurred `1720 crore capex for Bhuj

project till date.

•Close to 90 percent of its production is exported to

120 countries across Europe, North and South

America, Africa, Asia and Middle East.

•Euro has been hedged at 74-75 for FY14. The

P/E Chart

BALKRISHNA INDUSTRIES LIMITED CMP: 231.60 Upside: 26%Target Price: 293

GATEWAY DISTRIPARKS LTD CMP: 108.60 Upside: 18%Target Price: 129

Face Value (`) 10.00

52 Week High/Low 150.40 / 98.10

M.Cap (` Cr.) 1178.96

EPS (`) 11.19

P/E Ratio (times) 9.70

P/B Ratio (times) 1.49

Stock Exchange BSE

VALUE PARAMETERS

% OF SHARE HOLDING

Investment Rationale start of the GDL got into the company. By FY14 the capacity would be expanded to 70000-80000 •Gateway Distriparks (GDL) is in the business of pallets. The company continues to expand General and Bonded Warehousing, handling and depending on the opportunities going forward. clearing of sea borne Exim Cargo in containerised

•Gateway Distriparks is planning to list its cold chain form at Navi Mumbai. The company operates in three logistics solutions arm - Snowman Logistics verticals viz. Container Freight Stations (CFS), Inland Limited. The fund raised through the IPO will be Container Depots (ICD) with rail movement of utilized for expansion purposes. Post IPO GDL containers to major maritime ports, and Cold Chain holding in the company would be 40 per cent.Storage and Logistics.

•The company has improved its market share in Valuationboth Ludhiana and NCR region. The market share Going forward the company expect to do better than of Ludhiana was at 51% up by 300 bps and that of industry with improving market share. In the longer NCR was at 8.6% up by 60 bps. term, GDL would continue its strategy of expanding

•Renovation of Chennai CFS II (or Chandra CFS) its CFS network and with the general improvement of facility at about `12 crore is progressing well and the business climate, this segment is expected to do Phase I of the work is likely to be completed soon. well. On the estimated FY14E EPS of `12.01 and one Kochi CFS, which commenced full scale operation year average P/Ex of 10.7x, we expect the stock to see in Feb 2013 is expected to start contributing more a price target of ̀ 129 in one year time frame. significantly from second half of current fiscal. Kochi CFS is expected to achieve optimum utilization of its capacity of 4,000 TEUs per month in H2FY14.

•Faridabad ICD – ready in all respect and is waiting for weigh bridge approval from Indian Railways (IR). The company expects the operation to commence by latter part of Q2FY14 or early Q3FY14. About 2500-3500 containers is the monthly run-rate expected out of this ICD.

•Snowmen logistic, subsidiary company of GDL, has rapidly expanded the capacity to about 46000 pallets as of now from about 10000 pallets at the

` in cr

Particular Mar 2013 2014(E) 2015

Revenue 949.73 930.54 1,096.03

EBITDA 244.09 247.59 282.07

EBIT 174.24 185.01 201.04

Pre-Tax Profit 173.35 180.97 178.15

Net Profit 126.69 126.34 136.08

EPS 11.68 11.76 12.01

BVPS 99.95 84.73 81.10

ROE 16.49 14.85 15.43

Mar Mar (E)

P/BV Chart

10.91

19.67

3.11

58.3

8.02

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

28.78

16.4

3.89

40.93

10.02

Foreign

Institutions

Non Promoter Corporate Holding

Promoters

Public & Others

Charts by Spider Software India Ltd

7

The stock closed at 149.25 on 12th September 2013. It made a 52-week low at

`120.05 on 06th August 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 289.25 on 12th March 2013.

The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart

is currently at ̀ 259.22.

It has formed double bottom near 120 levels with the increase in volumes, which

is a positive sign for this particular scrip. One can Buy 154-155 levels with closing

below stop loss of 150 levels for the target of 165-170 levels.

`

EQUITY

Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months

The stock closed at 238.65 on 12th September 2013. It made a 52-week low at

`181.60 on 02nd August 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 475 on 02nd January 2013.

The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart

is currently at ̀ 425.14.

After forming a base at lower levels, it has started its upward journey with the

rise in metal index and still there is some room left, which will support it to

reach our desired targets. One can buy in the range of 238-239 levels with

closing below stop loss of 234 levels for the target of 250-255 levels.

`

The stock closed at 373.80 on 12th September 2013. It made a 52-week low at

`308.20 on 02nd August 2013 and a 52-week high of `572.50 on 10th January

2013. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly

chart is currently at ̀ 585.70

As visible on the charts, there is a major consolidation at lower levels and a

sharp recovery in price there onwards, which determines its strength. We

anticipate that in coming week it may further rally upwards and reach our

desired targets. One can Buy in the range of 383-385 levels with closing below

stop loss of 369 levels for the target of 400-405 levels.

`

DLF LIMITED

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED

JINDAL STEEL & POWER LIMITED

®

DERIVATIVES

BASIS GAP IN NIFTY

Markets remained choppy and volatile, producing intraday swings throughout the week. Hereafter, the range of 5800-6000 will remain crucial in the near term,

and the move is expected to remain volatile. If the Nifty slips below the 5800 mark, it could slide to 5650 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the contrary,

the index may face stiff resistance at 6050-6100 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest continued to increase last week and closed higher at 1.49 levels. The

options open interest concentration continued to be at the 6000-strike call with the highest open interest of above 40 lakh shares. Among put options, the 5600-

strike taking the total open interest to 60 lakh shares, with the highest open interest among put options. The Implied Volatility (IV) of the call options closed at

28.52% on Friday, while the average IV of put options inched higher to close at 29.32%. The Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range of 5800-6000 levels, with

an intermediary support at around 5800 levels. The move may remain mixed amid increased volatility, with resistance near 5900 levels.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)

FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK

(Derivative segment)

®

FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS

(Derivative segment) `(Cr)

UNITECH (SEP FUTURE)

Buy: Above `18.70

Target: `20.90

Stop loss: `17.50

WIPROBuy SEP. 440 PUT 7.50

Lot size: 500BEP: 432.50Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 3750.00 (7.50*500)

OPTIONSTRATEGY

FUTURESTRATEGY

BHELBuy SEP. 150. CALL 4.00Sell SEP. 160. CALL 1.80

Lot size: 2000BEP: 152.20Max. Profit: 15600.00 (7.80*2000)Max. Loss: 4400.00 ( 2.20*2000)

TATASTEEL (SEP FUTURE)

Sell: `292

Target: `282

Stop loss: `297

Below

CENTURYTEX

Buy SEP. 250. CALL 8.00

Sell SEP. 260. CALL 4.60

Lot size: 1000

BEP: 253.40

Max. Profit: 6600.00 (6.60*1000)

Max. Loss: 3400.00 ( 3.40*1000)

BULLISH STRATEGY

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

RELINFRA (SEP FUTURE)

Buy: `390

Target: `400

Stop loss: `385

Above

BEARISH STRATEGY

667500

995900 1029700

1652550

2828950 2437100

3170650

2629150

3379800

4467500

37043503449300

4467150

6238500

3726250

4251900

5270650

33175003699000

2878450

977600

336400

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

5000 5200 5300 5400 5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6200

Call Put

1262.67 1345.12

996.42780.65

577.29

1255.56

1771.55

-602.23-839.70

-1412.34

-2000.00

-1500.00

-1000.00

-500.00

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

29-Aug 30-Aug 02-Sep 03-Sep 04-Sep 05-Sep 06-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

28-Aug 29-Aug 30-Aug 02-Sep 03-Sep 04-Sep 05-Sep 06-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep

BUY86.7%

SELL13.3%

8

9

BHARTIARTL 10354000 11167000 7.85 0.73 0.85 0.12 51.14 56.63 5.49

DLF 31741000 29550000 -6.90 1.00 1.12 0.12 81.60 76.66 -4.94

HINDALCO 23212000 22344000 -3.74 0.64 0.93 0.29 64.03 64.08 0.05

HINDUNILVR 9265500 8735500 -5.72 0.91 0.83 -0.08 35.73 35.25 -0.48

ICICIBANK 10677500 10326250 -3.29 1.58 1.14 -0.44 59.80 56.10 -3.70

IDEA 10150000 9792000 -3.53 0.39 0.61 0.22 53.49 56.62 3.13

INFY 2392625 2169625 -9.32 1.15 1.38 0.23 34.22 35.97 1.75

ITC 26760000 24752000 -7.50 0.83 1.03 0.20 44.95 48.33 3.38

JPASSOCIAT 67256000 61240000 -8.94 0.70 0.64 -0.06 89.08 105.35 16.27

NTPC 11064000 10794000 -2.44 0.63 0.62 -0.01 39.40 37.66 -1.74

ONGC 10028000 9036000 -9.89 0.97 0.73 -0.24 52.47 46.68 -5.79

RANBAXY 6162000 6218500 0.92 0.61 0.73 0.12 86.34 82.40 -3.94

RCOM 38008000 36292000 -4.51 0.91 0.91 0.00 71.44 69.76 -1.68

RELIANCE 8822000 8305500 -5.85 0.72 0.77 0.05 37.90 38.78 0.88

NIFTY 18088250 18932600 4.67 1.51 1.49 -0.02 27.05 28.52 1.47

SAIL 14904000 16808000 12.78 0.38 0.37 -0.01 60.23 68.31 8.08

SBIN 5347750 5378250 0.57 0.79 0.75 -0.04 49.09 50.19 1.10

TATASTEEL 16025000 14542000 -9.25 0.96 1.05 0.09 62.29 58.14 -4.15

UNITECH 64944000 78440000 20.78 0.33 0.31 -0.02 78.95 81.24 2.29

IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS

OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY

SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE

DERIVATIVES

Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased

to 1.49 from 1.51. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of

change in put call open interest ratio.

Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week

has increased to 28.52% from 27.05%. The IV of the stock futures has changed this

week ranging from -5.79% to 16.27%.

Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week

has increased by 4.67% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw

changes in their open interest ranging from -9.89% to 20.78%. UNITECH has the

maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.

Statistical Analysis·

Open 5621.00 High 5955.05

Low 5581.75 Close 5860.45

NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS

®

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

5600

5700

5800

5900

6000

06-Sep 10-Sep 11-Sep 12-Sep

Nifty Close IV

10

®

This week the outcome of FOMC meeting will influence the prices of bullions in near term. It seems that last week fall in the bullion counter has discounted the $15-20 billion tapering by the federal reserve of the total $85 billion monthly bond purchases. If federal reserve's taper more than that bullion counter can witness more downfall from current levels while if it does not taper at all than sharp short covering rally can be seen. FOMC meeting is scheduled on Wednesday on 18 September. On the domestic bourses, strong local currency rupee have kept the prices on weaker note but rupee can get support from 63-62 and may weaken again towards 65 in near term, which can cap the downside. Gold may trade in the range of $1220-1380 in COMEX and 28500-31000 in MCX. White metal silver can also trade in the range of 47000-53000 in near term. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits appeared to drop to a near 7-1/2-year low last week but the decline was driven by two states that had trouble processing filings, making it difficult to get a clear read on the health of the U.S. labor market. The massive increase in physical demand, particularly in China, staved off further losses for gold caused by investors selling their holdings of exchange-traded funds and net-long positions on the Comex, based on the reduced demand for safe havens and expectations of U.S. monetary policy shift.

BULLIONS

Tensions in Middle East especially in Syria, decision by Fed regarding tapering of monetary easing and movement of local currency rupee will give direction to the Crude oil prices in MCX. Overall it can move in the range of 6650-7350 in MCX and $104-112 in NYMEX. Investors are increasingly worrying about -how much the U.S. central bank will cut its monthly $85-billion bond purchases as it begins to end the era of cheap money that has boosted the flow of funds into commodities. Meanwhile, according to U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) “tropical depression in the southern Gulf of Mexico is strengthening, prompting the closure of two top oil export terminals and could unleash life threatening flooding. Supply from the OPEC fell by 260,000 barrels to 30.51 million barrels per day (MBPD) in August as outages continue in Libya whereas similar issues persist in Iraq and Nigeria, among others. Global production disruptions reached 2.7 MBPD during August, the highest level since January 2011, with 2.1 MBPD attributable to the OPEC region itself. According to IEA forecast, global oil demand is expected to be healthy, with the consumption improvement for 20913 seen at 1.1 MBPD, backed by the extended improvement in the global economic situation. Natural gas can trade in the range of 225-245 in MCX. The U.S. Energy Information Administration stated in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended September 6 rose by 65 billion cubic feet, below market expectations for an increase of 66 billion cubic feet.

ENERGY COMPLEX

Base metals complex may trade sideways with some lower level buying can be seen as prices have witnessed sharp fall from its high seen in the month of August on strengthening local currency rupee. Better economic conditions in the second half of the year for China can support demand in base metals. But it is expected that more demand coming out of markets like North America and even Europe in the probably last quarter this year can support the prices. Furthermore strike concerns that began last week at the small Salvador copper mine in Chile and owned by Codelco shows no signs of ending as the union has threatened more radical action after what it said was a lack of engagement from the company. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 440-485. Global copper concentrate production soared by 10.5 percent over the first five months of this year, according to the International Copper Study Group. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 116-125 in MCX. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 840-910 in MCX. Record high nickel stocks and growing investor risk aversion might continue to weigh down on prices. Steel demand in China had unexpectedly picked up ahead of traditionally brisk consumption season in September and October. Battery metal Lead can move in the range of 129-138. Lead faces potential price spikes and rising premiums as a small market surplus dwindles further next year due to pressure on U.S. output, while demand is cranking up after the global crisis. Aluminum prices may move in the range of 110-118 levels.

BASE METALS

Turmeric futures (Oct) is likely to trade with negative bias in the range of 4500-5200 levels. Huge carryover stocks coupled with higher sowing area may pressurize the prices. Reports of good rains in growing areas favorably affecting the sowing of the new crop may keep pressure on the market sentiments. The counter is lacking fresh cues from the spot market as exporters and bulk buyers are not purchasing any bulk stock. Jeera futures (Oct) is expected to trade lower and prices may break the level of 13500. Sluggish demand from local buyers and higher-than-expected supplies in the domestic markets are putting pressure on the counter. There is an anticipation that export demand is likely to improve in the coming days due to negligible supply from Turkey and Syria. Cardamom futures (Oct) will possibly manage to remain in the range of 720-820. Arrivals are increasing substantially as the second round of harvesting is in full swing. But the counter may get support by a possible pick-up in export and domestic demand. A downside bias may continue in chilli futures triggered by steady arrivals and higher carryover stocks and prices may remain in the range of 5200-5780. Traders estimated the total stocks of around 65-68 lakh bags in Andhra Pradesh mandies. Chilli sowing is smooth in most of the chilli growing area. Summer chilli is in vegetative to fruiting stage in Rajasthan and AP.

SPICES

OTHER COMMODITIES

Guar complex may remains upside on slack domestic supplies and demand

from millers and stockists. Supplies have been falling from the old crop as

farmers have held back on hopes of better prices. Sugar futures (Oct) is

likely to trade lower with resistance of 3060 due to continuous supply from

millers to ease off their stocks ahead of coming crushing season and higher

production estimate is likely to put check on price rise in near term. Sugar

inventories in India may expand 11% to about 10 million tonnes on October

1, 2014, compared with an estimated 9 million tonnes at the start of 2013-

2014 season. Chana futures (oct) is likely to consolidate in the range of

2900-3400. Fresh enquiries ahead of festive season demand from millers at

lower levels against fall in supply from the producing regions of Rajasthan

and Madhya Pradesh may support the uptrend. However, higher sown area

of Kharif pulses may limit the gains. As per reports from ministry of

Agriculture, as on 6th September, Kharif pulses has been sown in 102.93

lakh hectare as compared to 97.70 lakh hectare during the same period of

previous year. Sentiments may remain bearish for mentha oil as lack of

demand may pressurize the prices in the Spot and the Futures markets. Higher

production and high stock levels may keep the prices in the range of 840-925.

However, lower level buying cannot be denied but uptrend may be limited.

Soybean futures (Oct) is seen to trade in the range of 3250-3700 levels with

negative bias on account of start of harvesting season and higher production

estimate. As the early sowing this year, the crop will start arriving the

market a little bit early this season. In some area of Maharashtra and in the

markets of Madhya Pradesh, new soybean has started arriving and are likely

to pick up pace in the coming days. Industry sources say that this year the

crop production may remain higher by at least 18% at 13.34 million tons as

compared to last year. However, uptrend in Mustard futures (Oct) is likely to

remain capped near 3670 levels due to overall weakness in the edible oil

complex. On the supply side, higher overall kharif oilseeds crop prospects

on higher acreage will continue to pressurize the markets as domestic

stockpiles of oilseeds are expected to be on the higher side as compared to

the previous year. But traders expect demand to pick up gradually in near

future from millers due to upcoming festive season. CPO futures (Sept)

prices may remains sideways in the range of 510-545. Palm oil demand at

major cash markets are normal, market participants remains reluctant to

take new position due to fluctuation in the Indian rupee against US dollar

and on hopes of bumper soybean production. Strong domestic currency,

weak Malaysian palm oil futures due to higher inventories as production of

the oil surged by 3.64 percent to 1.73 million ton, may pull down the prices.

OIL AND OILSEEDS

Closing as on 12.09.2013

11

NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly

basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND

PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS

NCDEX SOYABEAN (OCT) 3452.00 29.08.13 SIDEWAYS

NCDEX JEERA (OCT) 13662.50 11.04.13 UP 13795.00 12400.00 - 12000.00 - 11500.00

NCDEX RED CHILLI (OCT) 5592.00 17.04.13 DOWN 6362.00 - 5800.00 6000.00 6100.00

NCDEX RM SEEDS (OCT) 3550.00 25.07.13 DOWN 3099.00 - 3600.00 3700.00 3800.00

MCX MENTHA OIL (OCT) 907.50 13.06.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX CARDAMOM (OCT) 778.70 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 820.00 850.00 900.00

MCX SILVER (DEC) 50495.00 14.08.13 UP 46573.00 50000.00 - 48000.00 - 46000.00

MCX GOLD (OCT ) 30047.00 12.09.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX COPPER (NOV) 459.25 12.09.13 DOWN 459.25 495.00 - 515.00 - 525.00

MCX LEAD (SEP) 134.65 12.09.13 DOWN 134.65 148.00 - 154.00 - 160.00

MCX ZINC (SEP) 118.20 12.09.13 DOWN 118.20 126.00 - 133.00 - 146.00

MCX NICKEL (SEP) 879.20 12.09.13 DOWN 879.20 930.00 - 960.00 - 1000.00

MCX ALUMINUM (SEP) 113.45 12.09.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX CRUDE OIL (OCT) 6949.00 12.09.13 SIDEWAYS

MCX NATURAL GAS (SEP) 232.60 22.08.13 UP 231.30 230.00 - 220.00 - 210.00

TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING

*

TREND SHEET

COMMODITY

CRUDE OIL MCX (SEPTEMBER) contract closed at on 6943.00 on 12th September '13. The contract

made its high of `7784.00 on 28th August '13 and a low of `6145.00 on 25th July '13. The 18-day

Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 7006. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48. One can sell 6950-

6970 the range with the stop loss of ̀ 7020 for a target of ̀ 6800.

`

CHANA NCDEX (OCTOBER) contract closed at 3220.00 on 12th September '13. The contract made its

high of `3305.00 on 2nd September '13 and a low of `2687.00 on 26th September '13.The 18-day

Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 3158.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60.One can buy in the

range 3200-3180 with the stop loss of ̀ 3150 for target of ̀ 3350.

`

TURMERIC NCDEX (OCTOBER) contract closed at 4884.00 on 12th September '13.The contract made

its high of `5468.00 on 3rd September '13 and a low of `4742.00 on 14th August '13.The 18-day

Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 5085.

On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 40. One can buy in the

range 4900-4850 with the stop loss of Rs 4780 for a target of ̀ 5200.

`

®

CRUDE OIL MCX (SEPTEMBER)

CHANA NCDEX (OCTOBER)

TURMERIC NCDEX (OCTOBER)

COMMODITY

NEWS DIGEST

Most of the commodities continued their selling side journey ahead of FOMC meeting in US.

International market was week but domestic market was weaker on the back of rupee

appreciation. The Indian rupee edged below 63 per dollar mark for the first time since August 19

on Thursday. Bullion counter traded dull as hope grew that a U.S strike on Syria could be avoided

and also on the expectations that the US Federal Reserve would start to unwind its monetary

stimulus soon. Supply concerns dragged down natural gas prices despite weather forecasts calling

for above-normal temperatures across much of the eastern half of the US. Furthermore U.S.

Energy Information Administration said that natural gas stockpiles rose by 58 billion cubic feet in

the week ending Aug. 30. On the supply side, natural gas production may rise 1.1% this year to

69.91 billion cubic feet a day. On Thursday, it saw recovery in the prices. Crude prices shed its gain

after President Barack Obama called for a pause on authorizing a military strike against Syria,

easing concern that a conflict will disrupt Middle East oil exports. Statement by OPEC's Secretary-

General Abdalla El-Badri that oil market is well-supplied also exerted selling pressure on crude

prices. Sellers dominated base metals counter as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S.

Federal Reserve's meeting this week. All copper, nickel, aluminium, lead and zinc closed the week

on the negative note.

Several agro commodities swung between gains and losses on the mixed fundamentals. Fresh

enquiries from millers at lower levels as against fall in supply from the producing regions of

Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh together with increasing festive demand further supported the

uptrend in chana. Spices traded weak on dull demand at spot market and futures also reflected

the same. Steady to weak sentiments witnessed in jeera futures. Jeera area may increase in

coming sowing period due to favourable weather condition in Gujarat. Sowing may start from

October onwards. Sweetening agent of the market recovered from its lower level on fresh buying

also supported by the firm international trend. Though the upside was limited as higher sugar

output expectations but good amount of rainfall pressurized the prices. Guar seed as well as gum

prices surged sharply last week due to crop damage rumors. Around 15-20% guar crop damage has

been reported in Rajasthan due to lack of timely rainfall in the region. Soyabean travelled in a

range on mixed cues. CBOT traded slightly weaker on better than expected crop prospect.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)

COMMODITY UNIT 04.09.13 11.09.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.

BARLEY MT 23173 23102 -71

CASTOR SEED MT 112226 96926 -15300

CHANA MT 110433 109290 -1143

CHILLI MT 4468 3711 -757

COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 21989 18444 -3545

JEERA MT 4028 3744 -284

MAIZE MT 6661 2722 -3939

RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 48283 43476 -4807

SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 0 0 0

SUGAR M MT 5396 5396 0

WHEAT MT 12923 12871 -52

COMMODITY UNIT 05.09.13 12.09.13 DIFFERENCE

QTY. QTY.

CARDAMOM MT 54.70 58.30 3.60

COTTON BALES 0.00 0.00 0.00

GOLD KGS 408.00 428.00 20.00

GOLD MINI KGS 36.50 36.30 -0.20

GOLD GUINEA KGS 26.68 26.55 -0.13

MENTHA OIL KGS 2744344.65 2641080.85 -103263.80

MILD STEEL MT 952.95 873.73 -79.22

SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 33795.71 728.00 -33067.71

•China Factory output jumped 10.4% in August from a

year earlier, accelerating from 9.7% in July.

•Euro Zone Industrial production declined by 1.5% in

July from rise of 0.65 in June.

•Indian Industrial production rose by 2.6% in July from

decline of 2.2% in June.

•Libya's state National Oil Corp has declared force

majeure on three ports, following several weeks of

shutdown.

•Booming shale oil and biofuels output will make the

United States the biggest producer of liquid fuels

outside OPEC this quarter, well above Russia.

•Mining companies have threatened to cut investment

in Mexico after the government proposed a 7.5%

mining royalty.

•Group of 20 powers said the world economy was

improving but it was too early to declare an end to

crisis with emerging markets facing increasing

volatility.

•China's refined copper production rose 11.2% from a

year earlier to 560,515 tonnes in August, 2013.

•Brent crude oil December 2013 contract is available

for future trading with effect from 13th September,

2013 on MCX.

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)

12

®

NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)

QTY.

13.94

11.94

1.310.78 0.65

-7.88

-5.70 -5.69

-3.25 -3.19

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

GUARSEED GUARGUM NATURALGAS POTATO KAPAS SILVER BRCRUDEOIL GOLD CRUDEOIL COPPERM

16.87

14.86

2.13

0.940.37

-9.62

-7.85 -7.78

-5.80 -5.57

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

GUAR_GUM GUAR_SEED NEW_STEEL_LONG CHANA SUGARM200 TURMERIC RED_CHILLI SILVER_NEW BRENT_CRUDE_OIL GOLD_NEW

Curbing Gold Import……… Measures To Healing Headache

13

SPOT PRICES (% change)

COMMODITY

WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)

COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE

05.09.13 12.09.13

ALUMINIUM 5386625 5359525 -27100

COPPER 603900 585275 -18625

NICKEL 213804 216108 2304

LEAD 185350 180425 -4925

ZINC 992600 985350 -7250

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 05.09.13 12.09.13 CHANGE(%)

Soya CBOT NOV Cent per Bushel 1367.50 1396.00 2.08

Maize CBOT SEPT Cent per Bushel 489.50 479.00 -2.15

CPO BMD NOV MYR per MT 2412.00 2344.00 -2.82

Sugar LIFFE OCT 10 cents per MT 484.90 494.50 1.98

COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 05.09.13 12.09.13 CHANGE%

ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1798.00 1812.00 0.78

COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7108.00 7060.00 -0.68

LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2124.00 2120.00 -0.19

NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 13725.00 13785.00 0.44

ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1869.50 1878.00 0.45

GOLD COMEX DEC 1373.00 1330.60 -3.09

SILVER COMEX DEC 23.26 22.15 -4.75

LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX OCT 108.37 108.60 0.21

NATURAL GAS NYMEX OCT 3.58 3.64 1.82

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)

Gold is India's most expensive non-essential import and the second largest

contributor to the Current Account Deficit (CAD) after oil accounting for 13.3% of

the total bill and helping to push the Current Account Deficit (CAD) to $88 billion,

or a record 4.8% of GDP, in 2012-13. The high Current Account Deficit (CAD) has put

pressure on the domestic currency, which fell 20.15 to near 69 since January 1. So

to reduce its record Current Account Deficit (CAD), RBI and the government have

started taking measures since the start of the year CY 2013 to curb demand for

gold.

The measures are following:

• Jan 21 - The government raises gold import duty by 2% to 6%.

• Jan 22 - The government raises duty on raw gold by more than doubles to 5%.

• Feb 1 - The RBI plans to introduce three to four gold-linked products in the next

few months.

• Feb 6 - The RBI says it would consider imposing value and quantity restrictions

on gold imports by banks.

• Feb 14 - The central bank relaxes rules on gold deposit schemes offered by

banks by allowing lenders to offer the products with shorter maturities.

• Feb 20 - Trade ministry recommends suspending cheaper gold jewellery imports

from Thailand.

• Feb 28 - India proposes a transaction tax of 0.01% on non-agricultural futures

contracts including precious metals in its annual national budget.

• March 18 - The Reserve Bank of India says it is examining banks that sell gold

coins and wealth management products to identify "systemic issues", with a

view to closing any legal loopholes.

• April 2 - Finance Minister suggests unlikely to raise the import tax on gold

further to avoid smuggling and would instead introduce inflation-indexed

instruments.

• May 3 - The RBI restricts the import of gold on a consignment basis by banks.

• June 3 - Finance minister says India cannot afford high levels of gold imports

and may review its import policy.

• June 5 - India hikes gold import duty by a third to 8%.

• June 21 - Reliance Capital halts gold sales and investments in its gold-backed

funds.

• June 24 - India's biggest jewellers' association asks members to stop selling gold

bars and coins, about 35% of their business.

• July 10 - India's jewellers could continue a voluntary ban on sales of gold coins

and bars for six months.

• July 22 - The RBI moves to tighten gold imports again, making them dependent

on export volumes, but offers relief to domestic sellers by lifting restrictions on

credit deals.

• Aug 13 - India hikes import duty on gold for a third time in 2013 to 10%. Duties for

silver and platinum also increased to 10%. Customs duty on gold ore bars, ore or

concentrate increased to 8% from 6%.

• Aug 14 - India tightens gold buying again, banning imports of coins and

medallions and making domestic buyers pay cash.

These measures are now showing results with a decline of gold imports. Gold

import declined to 2.5 tonnes (or $650 million) in August 2013 from 47.5 tonnes (or

$2970 million) in July. In fiscal 2013-2014 so far (April-August), India has imported

384 tonnes of gold (worth $21.9 billion) as compared to 950 tonnes (or $53.8

billion) in fiscal 2012-2013 (full year).

®

-7.49

-4.49

-3.48

-3.08

-2.83

-2.13

-1.64

-0.18

-0.06

0.00

0.00

0.05

0.38

0.92

1.01

1.06

1.12

1.19

1.26

1.29

5.42

-10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

SOYABEAN (INDORE)

GOLD KG (MUMBAI)

MASOOR (INDORE)

CHANA (DELHI)

REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)

SILVER (DELHI)

CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)

GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)

MUSTARD (JAIPUR)

MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)

WHEAT (DELHI)

CORIANDER (KOTA)

RUBBER (KOCHI)

CHILLI (GUNTUR)

CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)

MENTHA OIL (CHANDAUSI)

JEERA (UNJHA)

PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)

BARLEY (JAIPUR)

TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)

RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)

CURRENCY

Currency Table

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USD/INR 64.47 65.12 63.22 63.94

EUR/INR 85.70 86.10 84.05 84.91

GBP/INR 101.24 102.24 99.82 101.05

JPY/INR 65.42 65.42 63.18 64.34

(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)

News Flows of last week

09th Sept: British employers took on permanent staff at a slightly slower pace last month

10th Sept: British house prices recorded their fastest rise in almost seven years last month

10th Sept: U.S. small business optimism dipped in August

10th Sept: U.S. job openings fell almost across the board in July,

12th Sept: U.S. export prices fell for the sixth straight month in August

12th Sept: The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits appeared to drop to a near 7-1/2-year low last week

12th Sept: America's budget deficit shrank in August compared to a year earlier,

EUR/INR (SEPT) contract closed at 84.91 on 12th September'13. The contract made its high of `86.10 on 10th September'13 and a low of `84.05 on 11th September'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 86.07.

On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.51. One can sell around 85.50 for a target of 84.30 with the stop loss of 86.15.

`

JPY/INR (SEPT) contract closed at 64.34 on 12th September'13. The contract made its high of `65.42 on 10th September'13 and a low of `63.18 on 11th September'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 65.45.

On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 46.80. One can sell around 65.10 for a target of 63.80 with the stop loss of ̀ 65.70.

`

Market Stance

Rupee witnessed smart gains in the week gone by tailing its previous week gains

on local bourses and tested 63.50 mark as against dollar on strong buying from

Foreign Institutional Investors(FII's), driven by the recent steps initiated by the

government and RBI. Sentiments changed with the passage of pension bill and

RBI easing norms for exporters, importers and concessional swap window for

banks' overseas borrowing and deposit mobilization by NRIs. Further favorable

IIP numbers and manufacturing data along with approval from Cabinet Ministry

for purchase of $4.3 billion of bonds issued by World Bank also supported an

upside in the currency. In late August, the rupee hit successive record lows on

mounting worries about the country's current account deficit, coupled with

large outflows of foreign money due to rising bond yields in the United States.

EUR/INR

USD/INR (SEPT) contract closed at 63.94 on 12th September'13. The contract made its high of `65.12 on 10th September'13 and a low of `63.22 on 12th September'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 65.01.

On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.48. One can sell on rise around 64.80 for a target of 63.50 with the stop loss of 65.50.

`

GBP/INR (SEPT) contract closed at 101.05 on 12th September'13. The contract made its high of `102.24 on 10th September'13 and a low of `99.82 on 11th September'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 101.76.

On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.08. One can sell around 102.50 for a target of ̀ 101.10 with the stop loss of ̀ 103.20.

`

USD/INRTechnical Recommendation

GBP/INR JPY/INR

14

®

Economic gauge for the next week

Date Currency Event PREVIOUS

16th Sept. EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)

16th Sept. EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) 1.10%

17th Sept. GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.80%

17th Sept. GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.00%

17th Sept. EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) 42

17th Sept. USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.00%

17th Sept. USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) 1.70%

18th Sept. USD Federal Reserve FOMC Two-day Meeting Begins

18th Sept. USD Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program $40B

18th Sept. USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.30%

18th Sept. USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections

18th Sept. USD Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program $45B

18th Sept. USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington

IPOIPO

INDIAN IPO NEWS

Power Ministry to soon float Cabinet note for Power Grid FPO

Power Ministry will soon float a Cabinet note for a follow-on public offer of state-run Power Grid Corp to raise 13 per cent fresh equity and about 4 per

cent share sale by the central government. At present, the government holds 69 per cent stake in the public sector unit. The funds raised are expected

to be utilised towards its expansion plans, including power transmission to the tune of 75,000 MW by 2017. This would be the second time that Power

Grid would be going for FPO after doing the same in November 2010. The company raised 10 per cent equity and the central government sold as much

share in the state-owned firm during that time. The company had hit the capital market in October, 2007, with its maiden public offer (IPO).

Madras Stock Exchange plans to raise ̀ 100 crore from PEs, IPO

Peepul Capital-backed Madras Stock Exchange (MSE) is planning to raise around Rs 100 crore through private placement and through IPO. The fund

raising will help the 76-year old Exchange to meet market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi's) mandate of ̀ 100 crore networth and

`1,000 crore of annual turnover. Meanwhile, the Exchange also seems to be on the verge of inking a deal with the National Securities Clearing

Corporation Ltd (NSCCL), a subsidiary of National Stock Exchange (NSE), for clearing and trading operations. There are 260 companies listed in Madras

Stock Exchange, of which only 63 are trading under the new arrangements. Some of the major companies which are listed at MSE include Ashok Leyland,

Simpson Group companies, TVS Group companies, India Cements, Dalmia Cents, MRF, Aban Offshore, Orchid Pharma, Amrutanjan Limited, Chennai

Petroleum Corporation, MMTC, NMDC, Shipping Corporation of India, State Bank of India and others. The Exchange has said to have an in-principle tie-

up with NSCCL for clearing and trading operations and EOI received from companies listed with MSE to trade on the new platform.

Eros International Plc to file for IPO in US markets

Eros International Media Ltd, a leading media company in the Indian film industry, on Tuesday said that its parent Company Eros International Plc has

filed an updated registration statement on Form F-1 with Securities & Exchange Commission of United States relating to a proposed Initial Public

Offering of its A ordinary shares. “The number of shares to be offered and the price range for the offering have not yet been determined,” Eros

International Media said in a filing to Bombay Stock Exchange.

Flipkart defers IPO plans, to expand business

E-tailing company Flipkart, has put aside its IPO and plans to focus on business expansion. After raising 200 million dollars (over `1,000 crores) from

existing investors, the Bangalore-based company is witnessing a positive growth track and is not worried about profits at least for a next few years. The

platform has also adapted a marketplace-based model, which the company believes would provide larger space, scale and scope to capture a bigger pie

of the market. While Flipkart has already started the process to move on to the new business model, it would take about 5-10 years to make it finally

work. However, the company would not totally give up its existing platform since it already has 500 sellers. Going forward, it's aiming to get one lakh

sellers on the site. By the end of fiscal year 2015, Flipkart targets to rope in at least 10,000 sellers. The company would also utilise the recently raised

funds to build a good supply chain and logistics infrastructure. And as the marketplace model is becoming successful, the company launched

Payzippy.com to resolve payment issues.

®

IPO TRACKER

*Closing prices as on 12-09-2013

Company Sector M.Cap(In Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)

*

Just Dial service provider 5445.69 950.11 41430.00 530.00 590.00 777.40 46.68

Repco Home Fin Finance 1498.06 270.39 41365.00 172.00 165.00 241.00 40.12

V-Mart Retail Trading 348.42 123.00 41325.00 210.00 216.00 194.00 -7.62

Bharti Infra. Telecom 29305.51 4533.60 41271.00 220.00 200.00 155.15 -29.48

PC Jeweller Jewellary 1583.24 609.30 41270.00 135.00 135.50 88.40 -34.52

CARE Rating Agency 1677.60 540.00 41269.00 750.00 949.00 587.60 -21.65

Tara Jewels Jewellary 227.24 179.50 41249.00 230.00 242.00 92.45 -59.80

VKS Projects Engineering 212.94 55.00 41108.00 55.00 55.80 3.38 -93.85

Speciality Restaruants Restaurants 586.30 181.96 41059.00 150.00 153.00 124.85 -16.77

T B Z Jewellary 928.46 210.00 41038.00 120.00 115.00 139.20 16.00

MT Educare Miscellaneous 390.04 99.00 41011.00 80.00 86.05 98.05 22.56

NBCC Construction 1465.20 124.97 41011.00 106.00 100.00 122.10 15.19

Olympic card. Media 46.89 24.75 40996.00 30.00 29.95 28.75 -4.17

Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 2459.48 663.31 40977.00 1032.00 1387.00 482.25 -53.27

Indo Thai Sec. Finance 10.92 29.60 40849.00 74.00 75.00 10.92 -85.24

15

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MUTUAL FUND

NEWS

Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series IB (91 days)

Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series IB (91 days), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO

opens for subscription on Sep 12, 2013, and closes on Sep 17, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of

fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.

Sundaram MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - DX (366 days)

Sundaram Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Sundaram Fixed Term Plan -DX (366 days), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 12, 2013, and closes on Sep 16, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income with minimum volatility by investing in

debt and money market securities, which mature on or before the maturity of the scheme.

Reliance MF introduces Fixed Horizon Fund - XXIV - Series 18

Reliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund - XXIV - Series 18, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 12, 2013, and closes on Sep 16, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and growth of capital by investing in a

diversified portfolio of the following securities which are maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the object of limiting interest rate

volatility - Central and State Government securities and other fixed income/ debt securities.

DSP BlackRock MF introduces FMP - Series 118 - 12M

DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DSP BlackRock FMP - Series 118 - 12M, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 12, 2013, and closes on Sep 19, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a

portfolio of Debt and Money Market Securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Scheme.

There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.

Kotak Mahindra MF introduces FMP Series 119 (370 Days)

Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Kotak FMP Series 119 (370 Days), a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 12, 2013, and closes on Sep 16, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns through investments in debt and money

market instruments with a view to reduce the interest rate risk. The Scheme will invest in debt and money market securities, maturing on or before maturity of

the scheme. There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be achieved.

Tata MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan Series 44- Scheme B (371 days maturity)

Tata Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 44-Scheme B (371 days maturity), a Close Ended income scheme. The

NFO opens for subscription on Sep 11, 2013, and closes on Sep 18, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income and / or capital

appreciation by investing in wide range of Fixed Income Instruments having maturity in line with the maturity of the scheme. The maturity of all investments

shall be equal to or less than the maturity of a scheme.

Baroda Pioneer MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan - Series F

Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Baroda Pioneer Fixed Maturity Plan - Series F, a Close Ended income scheme. The NFO

opens for subscription on Sep 11, 2013, and closes on Sep 17, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns by investing in a portfolio

comprising of debt and money market instruments maturing on or before maturity of the Scheme.

DSP BlackRock MF introduces FMP - Series 117 - 12M

DSP BlackRock Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DSP BlackRock FMP - Series 117 - 12M, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 10, 2013, and closes on Sep 17, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a

portfolio of Debt and Money Market Securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Scheme.

There is no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.

Deutsche MF introduces Fixed Maturity Plan- Series 37(DFMP-37)

Deutsche Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of DWS Fixed Maturity Plan- Series 37(DFMP-37), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for

subscription on Sep 10, 2013, and closes on Sep 16, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in debt and money market

instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme.

17

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NFOs WATCH

Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount

16-Sep-2013 16-Sep-2013 Close-Ended Growth `10000/-IDFC Fixed Term Plan - Series 34 - Regular Plan (G)

Anupam JoshiTo seek to generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.

13-Sep-2013 16-Sep-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 39 (31 Days) - Regular Plan (G)

Kedar KarnikTo generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the respective plan(s).

18

MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

ICICI Prudential Exports and Other Services Fund - G 22.86 30-Nov-2005 140.95 16.28 15.45 33.06 7.33 11.20 3.40 0.89 0.01 62.84 27.38 1.75 8.03

Axis Equity Fund - Growth 12.50 05-Jan-2010 547.42 0.16 1.13 14.16 2.43 6.24 2.11 0.84 0.07 76.81 9.27 4.70 9.21

BNP Paribas Equity Fund - Growth 40.11 23-Sep-2004 119.26 3.67 1.88 12.42 5.03 16.74 3.04 0.81 -0.05 80.12 13.14 N.A 6.74

Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity Fund - Plan A - G 97.59 30-Aug-2002 3180.48 1.35 -1.41 11.67 2.27 22.91 3.23 0.89 0.07 85.89 9.04 0.60 4.46

Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 30.58 05-Aug-2005 150.15 -3.17 -0.16 11.44 5.44 14.78 2.90 0.72 0.05 56.63 36.87 4.49 2.02

Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 76.89 24-May-1996 103.22 5.73 5.42 11.29 3.46 16.30 3.31 0.84 N.A 70.05 19.27 N.A 10.68

Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund - G 13.87 26-Jul-2007 523.62 -0.21 -2.60 10.06 0.06 5.47 3.59 0.95 0.02 47.73 38.60 5.51 8.16

EQUITY (Diversified)

BALANCED

INCOME FUND

Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 12/09/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%

ULTRA SHORT TERM

SHORT TERM FUND

Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns

Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns

Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &

(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER

SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 55.51 09-Oct-1995 398.82 -0.98 -1.13 9.71 1.54 15.23 2.56 0.03 30.30 30.31 10.01 29.38

ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 55.30 03-Nov-1999 501.94 0.05 -0.93 9.68 6.76 13.12 2.40 0.03 49.38 16.13 1.80 32.69

Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 335.38 10-Feb-1995 585.45 -0.85 -2.63 5.95 1.54 20.79 2.45 0.06 51.62 13.45 0.83 34.10

Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 96.31 08-Oct-1995 545.88 -0.34 -0.63 5.83 4.47 15.43 2.54 0.06 55.00 18.76 1.11 25.13

FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 53.36 10-Dec-1999 206.99 -2.68 -1.89 5.58 2.48 12.93 2.25 0.02 51.85 18.47 0.30 29.37

UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 83.79 20-Jan-1995 913.59 -0.47 -3.11 4.83 0.41 15.67 2.41 0.01 54.78 15.98 2.24 27.00

Canara Robeco Balance - Growth 67.51 01-Feb-1993 200.20 -0.46 -3.07 2.52 2.19 9.90 2.49 0.02 49.16 17.40 1.98 31.46

Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till

Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Morgan Stanley Active Bond Fund - Reg - G 12.59 03-Jun-2009 411.42 -10.79 34.26 1.68 7.83 11.32 7.39 5.53 17.46 -0.09 N.A 7.95

Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 18.07 03-Sep-2003 323.68 -6.37 48.28 32.21 8.89 11.06 8.21 6.07 29.56 -0.03 3380.00 9.38

BNP Paribas Flexi Debt Fund - Growth 20.29 23-Sep-2004 611.40 2.55 38.27 20.20 7.18 9.57 7.71 8.20 49.41 0.04 2646.00 9.81

IDFC SSIF - Invt. Plan - Plan F - Growth 12.91 16-Jul-2010 2480.44 -14.01 43.49 -2.49 2.88 8.58 8.70 8.43 25.85 0.06 4431.00 9.46

BNP Paribas Flexi Debt Fund - Plan A - G 13.82 13-Feb-2009 611.40 1.92 37.66 19.59 6.47 8.51 7.37 7.32 24.74 0.01 2646.00 9.81

ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 25.24 28-Mar-2002 578.86 9.44 9.80 10.50 8.81 8.51 7.94 8.41 5.25 0.06 11.00 10.63

IDFC SSIF - Invt Plan - Reg - Growth 28.69 14-Jul-2000 2480.44 -14.03 43.50 -2.49 2.75 8.42 8.16 8.33 42.43 0.03 4431.00 9.46

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - Reg - G 14.31 25-Mar-2009 825.96 16.27 42.53 9.72 9.23 9.24 9.64 8.34 9.17 0.11 N.A 12.99

Birla Sun Life Short Term Opportunities Fund - Reg - G 19.37 24-Apr-2003 675.56 15.15 39.19 9.75 9.19 9.47 9.70 6.57 8.13 0.14 N.A 11.97

Morgan Stanley Short Term Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.67 26-May-2009 431.16 12.19 36.06 11.72 7.69 8.35 8.71 7.62 14.41 0.02 N.A 9.21

Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 22.31 08-Aug-2002 270.97 12.07 30.92 12.83 7.26 8.40 8.42 7.49 19.27 0.04 504.00 11.00

Canara Robeco Short Term Fund - Reg - G 13.82 31-Mar-2009 444.78 9.56 29.61 11.18 6.86 7.84 8.44 7.53 6.61 0.03 N.A 10.63

BNP Paribas Short Term Income Fund - Reg - G 18.49 13-Sep-2004 323.14 10.17 31.92 14.53 6.63 7.84 8.26 7.07 6.94 0.09 712.00 11.31

Templeton India STIP - Growth 2415.39 31-Jan-2002 6306.13 8.70 38.45 8.36 6.46 8.03 8.42 7.88 9.55 0.17 755.00 12.00

Annualised

Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity

1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.

Union KBC Ultra Short Term Debt Fund - G 1129.21 24-Apr-2012 209.08 9.91 11.43 11.62 8.95 8.82 N.A 9.16 2.78 0.65 28.00 N.A

Templeton India Ultra Short Bond Fund - Retail - G 15.55 18-Dec-2007 4477.75 9.88 15.72 11.58 8.93 8.85 8.98 8.00 2.58 0.27 67.00 11.71

Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 13.19 26-Jul-2010 2367.30 9.54 17.65 11.57 8.77 8.98 9.39 9.24 3.60 0.52 137.00 11.69

UTI Treasury Advantage Fund - Reg - G 3069.49 12-Jul-1999 9965.58 10.81 14.51 11.35 8.72 8.63 8.70 8.23 2.31 0.16 71.00 N.A

Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1823.10 06-Sep-2005 3599.26 9.48 17.32 11.71 8.52 8.71 9.02 7.77 2.49 0.29 103.00 11.15

Principal Debt Opportunities Fund - Conservative - G 1931.53 14-Sep-2004 313.06 10.41 13.05 10.25 8.47 8.70 9.03 7.59 2.31 0.28 36.00 11.56

Birla Sun Life Ultra Short Term Fund - Ret - G 219.35 19-Apr-2002 838.18 11.67 15.43 11.41 8.43 8.58 8.83 7.13 2.86 0.13 N.A 11.53

Annualised

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