A Weekly Update from SMC 2013: Issue 356, Week: 4th...
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2013: Issue 356, Week: 4th - 7th February A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only) WISE M NEY Brand smc 180 ®
Transcript of A Weekly Update from SMC 2013: Issue 356, Week: 4th...
2013: Issue 356, Week: 4th - 7th FebruaryA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)
WISE M NEY
Bra
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(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive Simmi Chibber
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lobal stock markets closed with some mild losses but at the same time huge
money rush into equities kept supporting markets at lower levels. As per EPFR GGlobal data, equity funds garnered six times more money than that went to
bond funds in the week ending 30th January. Equity funds received $18.8 billion as
compared to $3billion in debt funds. In the FOMC meeting, U.S. Federal Reserve said
to continue to purchase mortgage-backed securities & longer-term Treasury
securities at a pace of $85 billion per month as it sees downside risks to economic
growth. Better than expected earnings reported by the companies from U.S. to Japan
and signs of improvement in the global economy helped in gaining investors
confidence.
Back at home, on expected line, RBI axed Repo rate and Cash Reserve Ratio by 25 bps
taking it to 8.75% and 4% respectively. It also revised growth projections of the Indian
economy to 5.5% from earlier projections of 5.8% citing weak investment demand and
weak industrial growth. Inflation projections are also revised downwards from 7.5% to
6.8% till 31st march 2013. Though the softening of rates is expected to boost growth
but at the same time RBI has hinted about limited scope of cutting interest rates going
forward as it anticipates inflation to remain range-bound in next fiscal year.
It looks that government, which has taken several steps starting from allowing FDI in
Retail to cut down on subsidies has to work even harder to boost growth by addressing
concerns pertaining to fiscal deficit, widening current account deficit, to boost
exports, to remove bottlenecks in the core sector, etc. Now the bigger focus of the
markets would be on the Finance Minister as to what he can do in the budget to be
presented in February at the time of strained finances. Unlike other years, when
government comes out with a populist budget prior to the elections, it is expected
that we would see a much balancing act in terms of spending towards infrastructure
activities and social schemes. Finance Minister has already hinted that he would be
sticking to the revised 5.3% fiscal deficit target. It is plausible that we may see a cut on
the expenditure side as there are lots of expenditures which either are incurred in the
last month of the fiscal or remain unspent because of the inefficiencies in the system.
Unlike corporate, government accounting goes on cash basis and because of this
Finance Minister can do some magic. Due to general pessimism in the economy and in
the corporate, it is believed that the Finance Minister would also refrain from raising
taxes but at the same time would try to widen the tax base may be by bringing more
services in the tax net. Also there are hopes that the Pension Bill and Insurance Bill
would be passed in the budget session but as regard to Goods and Services Tax it is
believed that it would be introduced in the monsoon session (August) and passed in
the winter session (December). The reforms would certainly boost the confidence of
the global investors and would further strengthen the stock markets.
On the commodities front, overall commodities market ignored the news of setback
in US growth and noticed rebound on the continuation of US asset purchase program.
Many commodities hit multi months high, downfall in dollar index from past few
trading sessions also stimulated buying in commodities. Indian market traded with
limited upside on sharp appreciation in local currency. Rally in yellow metal appears
tired and in Indian market, gold may take further correction. Crude oil advanced to
the highest level in four months on additional steps of US to stimulate the economy,
which is also the world's biggest crude user. Prices already spiraled in base metals and
energy counter; hence it is advisable to wait for correction before taking any large
position in buying side. PPI and retail sales of euro zone, interest rate decision by
Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank and Bank of England, employment
data of Australia, CPI of China and Germany, unemployment rate of Canada etc are
some important data and events, that should be watched closely.
From The Desk Of Editor
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NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
STOCKS CLOSING TREND DATE RATE S1 R1 S2 R2 CL.
PRICE TREND TREND S/L
CHANGED CHANGED
SENSEX 19895 UP 05.07.12 17539 19000 18600 18200
S&P NIFTY 6035 UP 05.07.12 5327 5830 5700 5650
CNX IT 6778 UP 17.01.13 6869 6600 6450 6350
CNX BANK 12709 UP 05.07.12 10642 12200 11700 11400
ACC 1323 DOWN 17.01.13 1359 1400 1420 1430
BHARTIAIRTEL 340 UP 22.11.12 308 335 325 315
BHEL 228 DOWN 01.11.12 227 235 241 246
CIPLA 407 UP 02.08.12 349 405 390 380
DLF 278 UP 03.01.13 239 250 240 235
HINDALCO 116 UP 20.12.12 133 125 120 115
ICICI BANK 1191 UP 05.07.12 921 1120 1080 1060
INFOSYS 2790 UP 17.01.13 2798 2650 2570 2500
ITC 308 UP 04.03.11 172 290 285 280
L&T 1542 UP 21.06.12 1373 1580 1530 1500
MARUTI 1582 UP 20.09.12 1283 1490 1460 1420
NTPC 157 DOWN 13.12.12 151 - 160 - 165 170
ONGC 340 UP 03.01.13 280 315 305 300
RELIANCE 887 UP 06.12.12 844 860 840 830
TATASTEEL 405 UP 20.12.12 432 420 405 395
NEWS
EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE4-Feb-13 PFC Interim Dividend Rs 6.00 Per Share5-Feb-13 IDFC Interest Payment5-Feb-13 BHEL Interim Dividend6-Feb-13 TVSMOTOR Interim Dividend7-Feb-13 FINANTECH Interim Dividend Rs 2 Per Share (Purpose Revised)8-Feb-13 RECLTD Interim DividendMEETING DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE4-Feb-13 RECLTD Results/Dividend4-Feb-13 MCDOWELL-N Results4-Feb-13 IL&FSTRANS Financial Results4-Feb-13 KFA Results4-Feb-13 J&KBANK Financial Results4-Feb-13 JUBLFOOD Results4-Feb-13 BANKBARODA Un-audited Financial Results4-Feb-13 FEDDERLOYD Results5-Feb-13 NHPC Results5-Feb-13 UNITEDBNK Results5-Feb-13 UCOBANK Results5-Feb-13 INDBANK Results6-Feb-13 TECHM Results/Others6-Feb-13 MOIL Results/Dividend6-Feb-13 CIPLA Results6-Feb-13 APOLLOTYRE Un-audited Financial Results7-Feb-13 PFIZER Results7-Feb-13 PCJEWELLER Results7-Feb-13 GESHIP Results/Dividend7-Feb-13 AMBUJACEM Results/Dividend7-Feb-13 ACC Results/Dividend8-Feb-13 TATACHEM Financial Results8-Feb-13 SUNPHARMA Results8-Feb-13 M&M Un-audited Financial Results8-Feb-13 HINDALCO Results/Others8-Feb-13 CANBK Results
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy
The Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, has cut the repo rate to 7.75 percent from 8 percent at its third quarter review. The reverse repo rate was adjusted to 6.75 percent from 7 percent.The Ministry of Finance has approved four foreign direct investment proposals worth around 280 crore, including that of IT giant Wipro, based on recommendation of Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB).
EngineeringLarsen & Toubro (L&T) has inked a $100 million offshore engineering contract with PETRONAS Carigali Myanmar (Hong Kong), enlarging its footprint in the new geography.
AutomobileAshok Leyland is now gearing up to launch higher tonnage of its LCV product, followed by passenger and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) versions. The company is also ramping up its LCV production by over 30% and said it will invest around 500 crore in the LCV venture over the next two fiscals.
CoffeeTata Coffee Limited, a subsidiary of Tata Global Beverages Ltd (TGBL) and India's third largest exporter of instant coffee, is embarking on a major expansion programme for its US subsidiary, Eight O Clock Coffee (EOC). It is firming up a plan to relaunch its brand and also introduce new offerings for consumers in US and Canadian markets.
Capital GoodsSuzlon Group said its unit REpower has bagged an order for setting up a 350 MW wind farm at Quebec in Canada. The project will be developed in two phases, first construction of 150 MW starts in 2013, commissioning is set for December 2014. The second phase of 200 MW is scheduled for commissioning in December 2015.Sutlej Textiles and Industries has decided to close the operations of the one of the company's units viz: Damanganga Garment based at Bhilad, Gujarat in view of its un-economic working.
Realty/ ConstructionUnity Infraprojects has been awarded a project for construction/ improvement of major roads in Solapur city under the scheme of Maharashtra Suvarna Jayanti Nagarotthan Mahaabhiyan Yojana Road Project, Phase -I (sponsored by State Government) by Solapur Municipal Corporation and the said project is to be completed within a period of 18 months. The project value is 234.96 crore.
TextilesAditya Birla Nuvo has decided for brownfield expansion of Urea capacity by 3850 TPD at existing fertilizer complex at Jagdishpur, U.P. Such expansion is envisaged at a capex of around 4000 crore.
PowerNeyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC) is planning to increase its power generation capacity to 4,240 MW with TPS-II Expansion (500MW) at Neyveli and a coal-based power plant of 1,000 MW at (NTPL), Tuticorin expected to commence operations in 2013-14.
INTERNATIONAL NEWSUS GDP edged down by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter after surging up by 3.1 percent in the third quarter. The modest drop came as a surprise to economists, who had expected GDP to increase by about 1.0 percent.US initial jobless claims rose to 368,000, an increase of 38,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 330,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to climb to 350,000.According to a report released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), NAR said US pending home sales index fell 4.3 percent to 101.7 in December after climbing 1.6 percent to a two-year high of 106.3 in November. Economists had expected the index to edge down by a much more modest 0.3 percent.US new home sales fell 7.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 369,000 in December from the revised November rate of 398,000. While the drop came as a surprise to economists, the unexpected decrease came from a November level that was significantly upwardly revised.US consumer confidence index tumbled to 58.6 in January from an upwardly revised 66.7 in December. With the decrease, the index fell to its lowest level since November of 2011.Hong Kong's retail sales value increased 8.8 percent year-on-year in December, down from the 9.4 percent growth in November. Nonetheless, the pace of growth exceeded the 7.6 percent rise forecast by economists.
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BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
1251.40
810.20
1006.20
1249.20
-198.00
-330.60-457.20
-395.80-600.00
-400.00
-200.00
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII Activity MF Activity
3.62 3.362.65
2.271.54
-5.62
-4.71-4.01
-3.18 -3.08
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
Coal India Hero Motocorp
ITC Cipla ICICI Bank Bharti Airtel Tata Power Co.
Larsen & Toubro
HDFC Bank GAIL (India)
8.58
6.87
4.443.61
3.24
-5.80
-4.58 -4.56 -4.31
-3.31
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
Axis Bank DLF Punjab Natl.Bank
Coal India Hero Motocorp
Bharti Airtel Tata Power Co.
Reliance Infra.
Larsen & Toubro
HDFC Bank
-0.05
0.03
-0.66
-1.04-0.96
-0.44
-1.20
-1.00
-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
-0.70
-2.45
-0.32
-1.85
-1.35
0.10
0.42
1.46
0.32
0.07
2.52
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
1.94
0.340.63
4.11
-0.24 -0.25 -0.32-0.12
-1.21
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year.
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
6®
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Current Mkt.Price ( ) 110.20
Face Value ( ) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 124.45/100.10
M.Cap ( in Cr.) 51019.63
EPS ( ) 8.32
P/E Ratio (times) 13.25
P/B Ratio (times) 2.17
Stock Exchange BSE
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Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E
Revenue 10,035.33 12,429.41 14,992.79
EBITDA 8,382.38 10,566.09 12,782.30
EBIT 5,809.84 7,470.90 8,994.81
Pre-Tax Profit 4,597.60 5,002.17 6,106.57
Net Profit 3,254.95 3,780.86 4,578.21
EPS 7.03 8.15 9.68
BVPS 50.73 56.59 63.99
ROE 14.51 14.97 15.76
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LIMITED CMP: 110.20
Investment Rationale ·On the back of new capacity additions, the
·Till date, about 8750 crore worth of capex has company has registered strong growth for the
been incurred and management is well within its quarter ended September 2012 despite grid
guidance for capex of about 20000 crore for collapse in major part of the country in July 2012.
FY'13. Major projects to be commissioned during Sales were higher by 36% (to 3085.77 crore) and
H2 FY'13 includes 2 UMPP's ie Sasan and Mundra that together with 390 bps expansion in operating
(last leg), generation linked projects namely margin facilitated 43% jump in operating profit to
Parbati-111 HEP, Pallatana GBPP and DVC and 2669.26 crore. Eventually the net profit was
Maithon and system strengthening projects in higher by 59% to 1125.89 crore.
western and northern region, Krishnapatnam and Valuation
PGCL, which wheels more than 50 per cent of India's 765 KV system for National Capital region.
power requirement, is a defensive play in the power ·The company has signed agreements with Bihar sector with attractive valuations. Company has and Odisha and discussion are under way with already signed power transmission agreement with Jharkhand, UP, J&K, Haryana and Manipur States. majority of the projects slotted for the 12th Plan. In XII plan, capex of about 55000 crore is Based on one year average P/Ex of 15.76 we expect expected to be incurred for inter state the stock to see a price target of 153 on its estimated transmission capacity.FY14E EPS of 9.68.·Recently, PGCL and Odisha Power Transmission
Corporation Ltd (OPTCL) signed an MoU to float a
joint venture company for improving the power
transmission in Odisha.
·Management has indicated that there is no need
for the company to raise any money for the 12th 5
year plan. It can manage debt equity ratio of even
75:25 for couple of years of the 12th 5 year plan.
However management has indicated that Power
Grid is a government company and it is in the hand
of the government to decide on divestment of
their shares.
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P/E Chart
Current Mkt.Price ( ) 46.60
Face Value ( ) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 52.80/36.75
M.Cap ( in Cr.) 1165.28
EPS ( ) 3.41
P/E Ratio (times) 13.67
P/B Ratio (times) 1.38
Stock Exchange BSE
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VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
DEVELOPMENT CREDIT BANK LIMITED CMP: 46.60 Upside: 39%Target Price: 65
Investment Rationale ·The Bank has opened its 87th Branch at Ludhiana in Punjab. Total Branches network – 87 and 331 ·During Q2FY2013, total business of the bank stood ATMs. It proposes to take the total branch count to at 12808 crore. Bank's Deposits grew by 14% YoY 100 by March 2013 – which means adding rural at 7,137 Cr., while Advances grew by 31% YoY and branches. The new branches are likely to be stood at 5,671 Cr. as compared to September 30, opened in states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha 2011. Bank is targeting 20% growth in total and Tamil Nadu.deposits & projecting advances to grow 31% in
FY2013. ·Bank proposes to reduce the Cost-to-income ratio for FY2013 to 69% from 74.45% during FY2012. ·The CASA ratio has improved slightly to 30.4% Bank is using cluster approach to open new during Q2FY2013, which has eased sequentially branches, wherein 4-5 branches are opened for last five sequential quarters. Bank expects within distance of 30-40 km, with a view to CASA to be maintained above 30%. It also proposes manage them closely and cost efficiently. to increase the CASA per branch to 35 crore in
next two years from 25 crore at end September Valuation2012.
Currently the stock is trading at P/BV of 1.38 and ·Net interest margin (NIM) has improved slightly to based on the estimated book value of 42.80 for FY14E
3.24% in Q2FY2013 from 3.18% in Q1FY2013, while and two years average P/BV of 1.51x we expect the Bank has expected NIM to remain in the range of stock to see a price target of 65 in one year time 300-325 bps to FY2013. frame.
·The Gross NPA declined to 226 crore at end September 2012 from 236 crore at end June 2012. The additions to NPA stood at 11 crore (4 accounts) during Q2FY2013, while the recovery and write-off stood were higher at 7 crore and 14 crore helping Gross NPA to decline in
Q2FY2013.
·The outstanding restructured assets eased to 9.5 crore (5 accounts) at end September 2012 from 10.5 crore at June 2012.
·Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) was at 13.97% as on September 30, 2012 with Tier I at 12.71% and Tier II at 1.26% as per Basel II norms.
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Particular Mar 2012 Mar 2013E Mar 2014E
Net Total Income 330.43 398.69 489.35
Pre-Tax Profit 55.11 82.84 115.38
Net Profit 55.08 82.00 111.45
EPS 2.71 3.36 4.65
BVPS 35.79 38.11 42.80
ROE 7.43 9.28 11.12
P/BV Chart
Upside: 38%Target Price: 153
20.32
13.41
10.4618.48
37.35
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Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
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4.23
69.42
4.52 Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
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Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
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EQUITY
The stock closed at 381.30 on 31st Janaury2013. It made a 52-week low at 304
on 26th July 2012 and 52-week high of 463.40 on 16th February 2012. The 200
days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is
currently at 358.37.
The stock after giving a lower spike of 300 levels it rebounded sharply. Last week
most of the counters were in red but this particular stock closed on a positive
note, which indicates that it has potential to move upwards. One can Buy in the
range of 390-393 levels with closing below stop loss of 377 levels for the target of
415-425 levels.
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Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 84.35 on 31stJanaury2013. It made a 52-week low at 74 on
03rd February 2012 and 52-week high of 99.85 on 09th April 2012. The 200 days
Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart is currently
at 78.42.
The chart indicates that the stock has managed to trade above its 200EMA in last
few weeks indicating that it has the potential to go upwards in the near term.
One can Buy in the range of 81-83 levels with closing below stop loss of 78 levels
for the target of 90-95 levels.
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The stock closed at 279.35 on 31stJanaury2013. It made a 52-week low at Rs
192.10 on 03th February 2012 and 52-week high of 313.35 on 30th November
2012. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly
chart is currently at 181.63.
When the stock reached 313 levels, profit booking started in this counter. Again,
it made fresh buying pivot at the support of 265 levels and started its upward
journey with the increase in volumes. It appears that it has more potential to
move upwards. One can Buy in the range of 281-284 levels with closing below
stop loss of 274 levels for the target of 296-300 levels.
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ABG SHIPYARD LIMITED
TITAN INDUSTRIES LIMITED
GRAPHITE INDIA LIMITED
®
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DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
IOC (FEB FUTURE)
Buy: Above 341
Target: 349
Stop loss: 337
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MCDOWELL-N ( FUTURE)
Buy: Above 1894
Target: `1934
Stop loss: `1875
FEB
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BHARTIARTL
Buy .320. PUT 6.00
Sell .300. PUT 2.50
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 316.50
Max. Profit: 16500.00 (16.50*1000)
Max. Loss: 3500.00 (3.50*1000)
FEB
FEB
`
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
TATASTEELBuy FEB. 420. CALL 7.50Buy . 380. PUT 4.50
Lot size: 1000Upside BEP: 432.00Downside BEP: 368.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 12000.00 (12.00*1000)
FEB
`
JINDALSTEL ( FUTURE)
Sell: Below 416
Target: 406
Stop loss: 421
FEB
`
`
`
The market expects a rise in volatility. If the Index slips below the 5900 level, it could gradually slide to 5800 levels. Conversely, a sustained move beyond 5950 levels should see Nifty climbing 6200 levels. Technically, the Index continues to trade above all its moving averages, of 200-day and 100-day EMAs, indicating a bullish scenario. On the contrary, sustaining 5900 levels is extremely crucial for a continued uptrend. Nifty basis remained in the premium throughout the week. The February contract ended the week at a premium of 40.00 points. The put-call ratio of open interest closed at 1.23. The highest concentration of call option is at 6100-strike call option, which has more than 40 lakh shares. Among put options, the highest open interest is at the 5700 strike, with an open interest of above 45 lakh shares. The options build-up in the 6100 strike indicates a resistance for current expiry. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call options closed at 13.13% while average IV of put options was 13.05%. Nifty VIX traded around 13.76 levels. It is currently trading below its 10-day EMA and is expected to rise from current levels. It has a strong support around 13 levels. On the technical front, Nifty is finding support around its short term averages of 5950 indicating immediate strength; however, any breach below the same would induce profit taking towards the support zone of 5800 mark which will remain a crucial point of observation for the week.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FII'S ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
FII'S ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
TCSBuy .1400. CALL 11.00Buy .1300. PUT 8.00
Lot size: 250Upside BEP: 1419.00Downside BEP: 1281.00Max. Profit: UnlimitedMax. Loss: 4750.00 (19.00*250)
FEBFEB
`
BEARISH STRATEGYVOLATILITY STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
®
415250 345300 331850451600
798850
1557950
3169500
4321850
2670250
2393950
557850550400
1347650
2936650
3269800
2701550
3462850
1975400
1153600
583350
323350140200
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500 5600 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500
Call Put -5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
16-Jan 17-Jan 18-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
-117.76
-364.87 -424.17-573.92
27.11
621.27
348.37
2269.15
1338.04
266.44
-1000.00
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
18-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
BUY88.0%
SELL12.0%
9
BHARTIARTL 9208000 6860000 -25.50 1.53 1.15 -0.38 31.75 34.11 2.36
DLF 14829000 13132000 -11.44 0.74 1.24 0.50 41.23 39.94 -1.29
HINDALCO 29282000 39488000 34.85 0.37 0.29 -0.08 41.32 39.72 -1.60
HINDUNILVR 8266500 6152000 -25.58 0.88 0.71 -0.17 20.56 19.19 -1.37
ICICIBANK 6833000 8669000 26.87 0.69 0.68 -0.01 31.68 27.02 -4.66
IDEA 11192000 9844000 -12.04 0.50 0.56 0.06 44.18 35.76 -8.42
INFY 3673625 2290500 -37.65 2.14 2.24 0.10 20.00 18.96 -1.04
ITC 19284000 18289000 -5.16 0.68 1.19 0.51 19.23 20.75 1.52
JPASSOCIAT 53220000 57360000 7.78 0.25 0.25 0.00 44.88 46.10 1.22
NTPC 8806000 13524000 53.58 0.67 0.57 -0.10 27.33 20.33 -7.00
ONGC 9422000 8717000 -7.48 0.92 1.00 0.08 35.57 33.97 -1.60
RANBAXY 5730500 7345000 28.17 0.34 0.27 -0.07 33.10 33.43 0.33
RCOM 57408000 56724000 -1.19 0.49 0.43 -0.06 53.15 52.52 -0.63
RELIANCE 8144750 10549250 29.52 0.63 0.56 -0.07 22.36 24.55 2.19
S&P CNX NIFTY 11566450 12029000 4.00 1.43 1.23 -0.20 13.44 13.13 -0.31
SAIL 17516000 19404000 10.78 0.23 0.20 -0.03 41.76 37.94 -3.82
SBIN 4665000 4886000 4.74 0.81 0.61 -0.20 30.41 29.50 -0.91
SUZLON 85579000 111176000 29.91 0.53 0.52 -0.01 78.27 66.82 -11.45
TATASTEEL 16025000 15247000 -4.85 0.46 0.43 -0.03 31.77 30.53 -1.24
UNITECH 98380000 95570000 -2.86 0.49 0.48 -0.01 67.92 63.95 -3.97
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased
to 1.23 from 1.43. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a negative of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has decreased to 13.13% from 13.44%.The IV of the stock futures has changed this
week ranging from -11.45% to 2.36%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has increased by 4.00% as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -37.65% to 53.58%. NTPC has the
maximum increase in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 6028.25 High 6120.00
Low 6014.90 Close 6034.75
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
®
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
6,000.00
6,100.00
6,200.00
25-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan
Nifty Close IV
* **
* Jan Series ** Feb Series
10
The strength in domestic currency gave the bear counter a reason to rejoice as domestic gold prices plunged lower below the key psychological level of 30000 while it remained in range on international bourses. Various steps taken by Indian government to reduce the current deficit reflected in strengthening of rupee. In near term rupee can strengthen further towards 52 levels thus pressurizing the gold prices in MCX. Recently positive economic data from the global economy reduced the safe haven demand of yellow metal. Physical demand for gold should remain supportive, particularly from central banks and Asian consumers. Investors focus is presently on the various economic data released from US, China and Europe and corporate earnings reports in US. Gold may trade in the range of $1630-1690 in COMEX and 29300-30500 in MCX. White metal silver can trade in the range of 56500-60000. The Federal Reserve recently left in place its monthly $85 billion bond buying stimulus plan, arguing that the support was needed to lower unemployment even as it indicated a recent stall in U.S. economic growth was likely temporary. The U.S. central bank predicted that the nation's job market would continue to improve at a modest pace, and repeated a pledge to keep purchasing securities until the outlook for employment "improves substantially." The Fed has kept overnight interest rates near zero since late 2008 and tripled its balance sheet to about $3 trillion through purchases of securities, which are aimed at pushing longer term borrowing costs lower.
BULLIONS
ENERGY COMPLEX
The upside in the crude oil counter can continue due to rising middle tensions and weaker greenback coupled with indications of global economic recovery. OPEC crude oil output has fallen in January to its lowest in more than a year as Iranian exports dipped from December's unexpectedly high rate and top exporter Saudi Arabia cut output further. Crude oil can trade in the range of 5050-5300 in MCX and $94 to 100 in NYMEX. Meanwhile the Brent and WTI spread expanded marginally from 15.6 to 18 levels. U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply recently to hit their highest level for that time of year, while fuel stockpiles fell more steeply than expected. Commercial crude inventories increased by nearly 6 million barrels in the week to Jan. 25, led by a 1.9 million barrel rise on the Gulf Coast. According to OPEC president world oil market should remain well supplied in 2013 and OPEC does not need to trim back its oil output. Natural gas prices can trade on volatile path on mixed fundamentals. It can trade in the range of 170-190 in MCX. Meanwhile, natural gas traders continued to closely track weather forecasts for the next few weeks in an attempt to gauge the strength of winter heating demand. Updated weather forecasts released earlier called for above normal readings for most of the U.S. with near-normal temperatures along both coasts. The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.
Soybean futures (Mar) is expected to maintain its consolidation within the
range of 3100-3300 levels. In the current scenario, cautious buying by
buyers is still evident in key cash market centers of Rajasthan, Maharashtra
and Madhya Pradesh. Moreover, India's soy meal export sales are weak and
are getting stiff price competition from major meal exporters. On the
international bourse, U.S soybean futures may maintain their upside bias,
as China continues to buy beans. On the other hand, the shipments from
Brazil main ports are getting delayed as the corn is still being shipped. The
counter is also getting a boost from a drier weather model for Argentina,
and forecasts that heat and dryness is to linger in southern Brazil. CPO
futures (Apr) is likely to trade higher taking support above 450 levels.
Recently, India announced that it would set a base price of $802/tonne for
CPO imports in a bid to prevent a flood of cheap palm oil from top producers
Indonesia and Malaysia. On the flip side, Indonesia will raise taxes on crude
palm oil exports to 9% from 7.5% in January. This could benefit to reduce
Malaysia's record inventories of 2.63 million tonnes at the end of December.
Mustard futures (Apr) will probably trade range bound due to prospects of
higher production. In major producing states like Rajasthan, U.P, M.P,
Gujarat & Punjab the crop is in flowering and pod formation stage.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Upbeat economic data from US and China and growing premium of some base metals due to financing deals will continue to lend support to the metals. U.S. home prices rose in November last year, climbing more than five percent from a year ago in the biggest increase since August 2006 when the housing market was starting to collapse. The fall in US fourth-quarter GDP raised hopes of continued quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve. There will be thin trading activity as the China lunar year holidays will be starting from February 9. Copper may move in the range of 430-460. On the fundamental supply and demand basis, the uncertainty over copper output was providing support for the market, as miners were faced with sharp increases in production costs, leading to questions over possible output cuts. Aluminum prices may trade in the range of 109-113 while Lead can trade in the range of 125-133. Tajikistan Aluminium Company cut output by 1.8 percent to 272,500 tonnes last year after Central Asia's largest aluminium smelter was hit by a temporary halt of natural gas supplies from neighboring Uzbekistan. Zinc may hover in the range of 110-117.Nickel prices can trade in the range of 940-1050 in MCX. Chinese investors, who boosted zinc imports by almost 50 percent last year, will continue to use the metal as a financing tool in 2013, a move that would support global premiums of the metal but curb domestic production. China is expected to produce around 5 million tonnes of refined zinc in 2013, an increase of 3.3 percent from 2012.
BASE METALS
The bull-run in chilli futures might witness a pause as arrivals are in full
swing in Madhya Pradesh & Karnataka. Exporters seem to be waiting for a
correction in prices during the peak arrivals from Andhra Pradesh, which is
expected to pick up by mid-February. However, any large downside in
current month contract may remain capped near 6700 levels. There are
reports that arrivals from Tamil Nadu may get delayed, will probably begin
from March & also that yield per hectare is expected to be 40% lower.
Turmeric futures (Apr) is likely to trade in the range of 6100-6500 levels.
Regular orders from Northern India have dried up due to severe winters.
Moreover, carryover stocks are huge and estimated to be around 25 - 30 lakh
bags will continue to cap the upside. The new crop from fields of Erode will
arrive within a few days. Jeera futures (Mar) will possibly observe an
extended downside below 13200 levels. Factors like favorable weather for
sowing & rising area under cultivation may pressurize the counter. Pepper
futures (Mar) is expected to trade range bound taking support above 36000
levels. Till now the supplies has not picked up & good domestic demand is
prevailing in the domestic pipelines. Cardamom futures may trade with a
bearish bias & move towards 1010 levels. At the spot markets, arrivals are
being reported higher amid ongoing last round of picking.
SPICES
OTHER COMMODITIES
Wheat futures (Feb) is likely to consolidate in the range of 1500-1580
levels. The downside may remain limited on the news that govt. is
considering allowing additional wheat exports, taking advantage of the
supply crunch on the international market. On the contrary, the higher
estimation of crop output this season & surplus stocks in warehouses may
cap the upside. Wheat stocks at government warehouses on Jan. 1 were
34.4 million tonnes, more than four times the official target of 8.2 million
tonnes for the quarter ending March. Kapas futures (Apr) is expected to
remain stable above 865 levels. There is a news that India and Bangladesh
may shortly seal an agreement on cotton, irrespective of any export ban.
The price, which will be flexible, is likely to be marked slightly higher than
the existing global prices as a premium for the guaranteed supply. Sugar
futures (Feb) could extend its downtrend breaching 3100 levels. Factors of
ample supply & ease of demand on domestic markets may add to the
bearish sentiments. Moreover, on export front there is no much scope for
shipment from India as world prices are ruling lower near $500/ton. Chana
futures (Apr) might trade with a negative bias heading towards 3450 levels,
owing to dull physical demand prevailing in spot markets of M.P, U.P, and
Chhattisgarh. Fresh arrival of crop in states of Maharashtra & Gujarat may
build some negative sentiments over the counter.
®
Closing as on 31.01.13
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
CHANGED
NCDEX SOYABEAN (FEB) 3287.50 06.09.12 DOWN 4000.00 - 3300.00 3450.00 3550.00
NCDEX JEERA (MARCH) 13565.00 10.01.13 DOWN 13882.50 - 14600.00 15000.00 15500.00
NCDEX PEPPER(FEB) 38745.00 17.01.13 SIDEWAYS
NCDEX RED CHILLI (MARCH) 7072.00 10.01.13 UP 6390.00 6200.00 - 6000.00 - 5800.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (APRIL) 3455.00 10.01.13 DOWN 3516.00 - 4000.00 4150.00 4300.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (FEB) 1306.70 23.01.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (FEB) 1034.50 22.11.12 UP 941.00 980.00 950.00 - 910.00
MCX SILVER (MARCH) 57849.00 20.12.12 DOWN 57351.00 - 60000.00 61000.00 62000.00
MCX GOLD (FEB) 29871.00 20.12.12 DOWN 30482.00 - 30700.00 31200.00 31500.00
MCX COPPER (FEB) 440.05 20.12.12 DOWN 432.95 - 450.00 455.00 460.00
MCX LEAD (FEB) 129.55 17.01.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX ZINC (FEB) 113.95 17.01.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX NICKEL(FEB) 980.60 22.11.12 UP 921.10 940.00 - 920.00 - 900.00
MCX ALUMINIUM(FEB) 111.15 17.01.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CRUDE OIL (FEB) 5202.00 03.01.13 UP 5080.00 5000.00 - 4900.00 - 4800.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (FEB) 178.20 03.01.13 DOWN 176.50 - 195.00 205.00 210.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED STOP/LOSS*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
NICKEL MCX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 980.60 on 31st January'13. The contract made its high of
990.40 on 31st January '13 and a low of 934.70 on 25th January '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the commodity is currently at 961. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 64.One can buy in the
range 970-960 with the stop loss of 945 for a target of 1015.
`
` `
`
` `
CRUDE OIL MCX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 5202.00 on 31st January '13. The contract made its
high of 5248.00 on 29th January '13 and a low of 4773.00 on 11th December'12.The 18-day Exponential
Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at 5181.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 60. One can buy in the
range 5200-5180 with the stop loss of 5145 for target of 5285.
`
` `
`
` `
SOYAREFINED OIL NCDEX (MARCH) contract closed at 714.50 on 31stJanuary '13.The contract made
its high of 723.35 on 1st February '13 and a low of 672.50 on 26th December '12.The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at 703.62.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 69. One can buy in the
range 718-715 with the stop loss of 709 for a target of 732.
`
` `
`
` `
®
NICKEL MCX (FEBRUARY)
CRUDE OIL MCX (FEBRUARY)
SOYAREFINED OIL NCDEX (MARCH)
12
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Appreciation in Indian currency was one of the major triggers for the domestic commodity
market. Most of them witnessed limited movements due to sharp appreciation in rupee. But the
fall was limited owing to the month-end dollar demand from oil companies. Gold climbed in
COMEX toward a one-week high after data showed that the U.S. economy unexpectedly shrank
and the Federal Reserve maintained asset purchases. U.S. economy contracted 0.1% in the
fourth quarter, most since the second quarter of 2009, as defense spending slumped. Fed will
keep purchasing securities at the rate of $85 billion a month. Fall in dollar index from past two
weeks also supported commodities prices at higher side. In the domestic market gold traded
weak on appreciation in local currency whereas silver breached the support of 58000 in MCX. Oil
traded near the highest level in more than four months in NYMEX, closed above the mark of $97
as the Federal Reserve maintained an asset-purchase program to boost the economy of the
world's biggest crude-consuming nation. It ignored the news of surprise buildup in inventories.
U.S. crude inventories increased by 5.9 million barrels whereas gasoline supplies fell 956,000
barrels last to last week, as per the Energy Department. Base metals took support on the news
of asset purchase program and ignored the weak US GDP numbers. Nickel outperformed other
base metals last week. Copper took support near 435 while aluminium saw rebound near the
level of 108.
In agro counter, mixed sentiments witnessed in spices counter. Higher demand in domestic
market amid better export demand stimulated buying in chilli futures. Black pepper plucking is
delayed due to lack of skilled laborers. It augmented pepper prices from past few weeks in
future market. Oilseeds and edible oil counter edged higher tracking gains in international oil &
oilseed markets. Only mustard seed traded sluggish on approaching new RM seed crop arrivals.
Soybeans on CBOT traded higher on drier Argentine weather forecast for the next few days and
likely harvesting delays in Brazil on chances of rainfall. Indian government has removed limits
on edible oils export with a minimum export price of $1500 per tonnes without any volume
restrictions to cater small expatriate appetite for cooking oils. Wheat prices surged as traders
and speculators were anticipating firm market due to rise in export demand and increased
demand from flour millers. Maize traded steady to slightly down due to sluggish export demand.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 22.01.13 30.01.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
BARLEY MT 1353 609 -744
CASTOR SEED MT 111673 115952 4279
CHANA MT 17917 15176 -2741
CORIANDER MT 5673 3387 -2286
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 67847 74764 6917
MAIZE MT 47000 437240 -3276
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 32873 26505 -6368
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 52203 38467 -13736
SUGAR S KOL MT 867 577 -290
SUGAR M MT 9735 11234 1499
WHEAT MT 4296 4296 0
COMMODITY UNIT 23.01.13 30.01.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 20.90 24.20 3.30
COTTON BALES 22000.00 25600.00 3600.00
GOLD KGS 2184.00 2764.00 580.00
GOLD MINI KGS 1021.60 1584.30 562.70
GOLD GUINEA KGS 224.13 258.51 34.38
MENTHA OIL KGS 1254314.50 1081080.25 -173234.25
MILD STEEL MT 39.96 254.92 214.96
SILVER KGS 106546.11 112230.32 5684.21
·Global steel production last year set a new volume record of 1,548 million tonnes, according the World Steel Association (WSA).
·China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in January.
·According to Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council “India's silver exports likely to rise by up to 30% this year”.
·According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) World unwrought aluminium stocks were at 1.26 million tonnes in December last year versus 1.241 million in November.
·The Government has removed the quantitative ceiling of 20,000 tonnes on export of branded edible oil in consumer pack of up to five kg.
·India has fixed the price sugar mills must pay to cane growers at 210 rupees per 100 kg in the 2013/14 year.
·Cotton supplies in local spot markets from the new crop in India have fallen 7% in the current marketing year that began on Oct. 1, as per Cotton Corp of India.
·The government has reduced the quantity of sugar released in the December-March quota from 68 lakh tonne to 66.5 lakh tonne.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
4.31
3.002.80
1.791.49
-5.41
-3.09-2.74
-0.73 -0.69
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
NICKEL REF.SOY OIL
POTATO ZINC LEAD NATURAL GAS
CARDAMOM GOLD PTL. (DEL)
STEEL RPR
SILVER
4.43
2.29
1.59 1.471.30
-3.82
-3.43
-2.73
-2.18 -2.04
-5.00
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
RED CHILLI TURMERIC GUR NEW PEPPER PVC NEW BARLEY CORIANDER CASTOR SEED NEW
NEW STEEL LONG
CHANA
United States Asian Commodities Basket Fund (USACBF)
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
23.01.13 31.01.13
ALUMINIUM 5167600 5156975 -10625
COPPER 344925 371750 26825
LEAD 293950 290850 -3100
NICKEL 149154 150012 858
TIN 13110 13420 310
ZINC 1218775 1208725 -10050
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 24.01.13 31.01.13 CHANGE (%)
Soya CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 1435.25 1468.50 2.32
Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 724.25 740.50 2.24
CPO BMD APR MYR per MT 2445.00 2557.00 4.58
Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 487.30 499.40 2.48
*
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 24.01.13 31.01.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 2064.00 2110.50 2.25
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 8075.00 8215.00 1.73
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2374.00 2441.00 2.82
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 17350.00 18460.00 6.40
TIN LME 3 MONTHS 24375.00 25095.00 2.95
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2075.00 2160.00 4.10
GOLD COMEX FEB 1669.90 1660.60 -0.56
SILVER COMEX MAR 3172.20 3135.10 -1.17
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX MAR 95.95 97.49 1.61
NATURAL GAS NYMEX FEB 3.45 3.34 -3.33
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
For the first time the Dubai Mercantile Exchange's flagship crude oil futures contract, DME Oman has included in a new US-based commodities fund on 22 January, 2013. It will give investors exposure to Asia's rapidly growing demand for raw materials. The inclusion of DME Oman in the United States Asian Commodities Basket Fund ("USACBF") recognizes the critical benchmarking role DME is playing in the expansion of the East of Suez markets, providing transparent price discovery and reflecting the economics of the Asian region. No other crude oil futures contract reflects the economics of the Asian region.
According to Chris Fix, DME's Chief Executive "DME Oman's inclusion in US-based commodities fund is a significant milestone and ringing endorsement of the relevance of DME to the growth of the Asian oil market. Like us, this fund is betting on the rapid growth of crude oil consumption in countries like China and India and I feel certain that over the time other funds will also follow this.
According to Chris Fix "We're already seeing 40% of the crude oil traded on the DME going to China and are confident that as our market matures, volumes will continue to build, aided by DME Oman's inclusion in more Exchange Traded Funds.
“Being listed in the US, this fund will make trading in DME Oman truly global like never before, opening up access to the US investor community for the first time".
Snapshot about USACBF
The USACBF will be listed on NYSE Arca Inc. and own futures in those commodities where China, Japan and India combined account for at least 10 percent of global demand and are likely to be net importers.
NYSE Arca is the electronic platform of NYSE Euronext.
According to website of U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission, Oil will have the biggest weight in the fund, at 22 percent. Brent crude oil will have a 20 percent weighting in the fund.
China, Japan and India account for 19 percent of global oil demand and 5.9 percent of production.
Corn, soybeans and wheat futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade will each account 10 percent of the fund.
Copper traded on the Comex in New York will have 10 percent weighting, while gold and silver futures will account for 5 percent each.
·
·
·
·
·
·
®
-5.24
-2.99
-2.84
-1.63
-1.49
-1.45
-1.15
-1.13
-0.70
-0.51
-0.39
0.00
0.48
0.51
0.56
1.27
1.45
2.43
2.78
7.76
-6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CHANA (DELHI)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
CARDAMOM (VANDANMEDU)
GOLD KG (MUMBAI)
SILVER (DELHI)
JEERA (UNJHA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
MASOOR (INDORE)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
MILD STEEL INGOTS (GHAZIABAD)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
WHEAT (DELHI)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
CHILLI (GUNTUR)
Weightage in USACBF
Commodity Base Weight
Crude Oil: Light/Sweet-Brent 20%Crude Oil: Medium-Dubai/Oman 2%Gasoil 2%Corn 10%Soybeans 10%Wheat 10%Copper 10%Zinc 5%Nickel 5%Sugar 5%Platinum 5%Gold 5%Silver 5%Canola Oil 2%Palm Oil 2%
Source: USSEC
The fund will act as a benchmark like S&P GSCI, for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time in of the Asian region. Asian economies have become increasingly important drivers of commodity prices in recent years, as rapid urbanization in developing economies has accounted for a significant portion of global natural resources usage. Swelling urban areas and aggressive infrastructure campaigns throughout the continent have translated into higher demand for all types of natural resources, boosting the fortunes of commodity-intensive economies throughout the world.
* Previous closing as on 25 Jan. 2013
14
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 53.68 54.04 53.06 53.26
EUR/INR 71.82 72.75 71.95 72.33
GBP/INR 84.78 85.17 83.84 84.44
JPY/INR 59.08 59.63 58.15 58.17
(Source: Thomson Reuters, Open: Friday (Prior) 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday 5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
29thJan: UK inflation expectations rose to 2.8 percent in January
30th Jan: U.S GDP unexpectedly shrank, declined seen temporary
30th Jan: Fed kept stimulus in place as U.S. economy "paused"
31st Jan: British consumer morale rose in January
31st Jan: UK House prices rose more than expected this month
31st Jan: U.S Labor costs rose modestly in the fourth quarter
31st Jan: U.S personal income post biggest gain in eight years
USD/INR (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 53.39 on 31st January'13. The contract made its high of 59.25 on 22nd June'12 and a low of 51.91 on 29th February 12.The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at 54.10.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.21. One can Sell around 53.75 for a target of 52.75 with the stop loss of 54.25.
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`
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EUR/INR (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 72.27 on 31st January'13. The contract made its high of 73.75 on 14th January'13 and a low of 70.60 on 06th November'12.The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at 72.48.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 54.54. One can sell below 72.25 for a target of 71.20 with the stop loss of 72.75
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GBP/INR JPY/INR
JPY/INR (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 58.71 on 31st January'13. The contract made its high of 68.49 on 31st Octoberr'12 and a low of 58.64 on 31st January'12.The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at 60.27.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 21.17. One can buy above 59.50 for a target of 60.70 with the stop loss of 58.90
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GBP/INR (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 84.27 on 31st January'13. The contract made its high of 90.35 on 21st December'12 and a low of 84.11 on 31st January'13. The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at 85.84.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.95. One can buy above 85.45 for a target of 86.50 with the stop loss of 84.95
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USD/INR EUR/INR
Market Stance
The Indian rupee strengthened slightly against the dollar on Thursday after
earlier hitting a three-and-a-half month high, while posting its first monthly
gain in four on the back of heavy dollar inflows into the domestic equity and
debt markets. Foreign funds bought shares and bonds of more than $4 billion
until the second-last day of the month, helping the rupee gain 3.3 percent,
and easing concerns about India's current account deficit. The strong
inflows have come in a month in which the government announced
additional fiscal and economic reforms, including allowing diesel prices to
rise further and imposing duties on gold imports, shoring up confidence in
the economy. The central bank this week also delivered its first interest-
rate cut in nine months, sparking more optimism about economic growth,
although it was cautious on future monetary easing. Investors are now
focusing on the budget for the next fiscal year to be unveiled in late
February.
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS04 Feb: EUR EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) -0.20%04 Feb: EUR EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) 2.10%04 Feb: USD USD Factory Orders 0.00%05 Feb: GBP GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services 48.905 Feb: EUR EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) -2.60%05 Feb: USD USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite 56.106 Feb: EUR EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) -1.00%07 Feb: GBP GBP Industrial Production (YoY) -2.40%07 Feb: GBP GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) -2.10%07 Feb: EUR EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) -2.90%07 Feb: GBP GBP Bank of England Rate Decision 0.50%07 Feb: GBP GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target 375B07 Feb: EUR EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision 0.75%07 Feb: GBP GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate -0.30%08 Feb: EUR EUR German Trade Balance (euros) 17.0B08 Feb: USD USD Trade Balance -$48.7B
Technical Recommendation
®
Issue Composition
Offer for sale 1,735,000
Fresh Issue 2,761,000
Total Issue for Sale 4,496,000
QIB 2,248,000
NIB 674,400
Retail 1,573,600
In shares
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Particulars Pre-issue Post issue
Promoters & promoters group69.51 58.83
QIB 0 12.52
NIB 27.37 17.26
Retail 3.11 11.40
Total 100 100
Objects of the Issue
�To open 60 new stores
� Expansion of distribution centre
�Working Capital
�General Corporate Purpose
Issue Highlights
Industry Retail
Total Issue (Shares) - Offer for sale 1,735,000
Total Issue (Shares) - Fresh Issue 2,761,000
Net Offer to the Public 4,496,000
Alloted to Pre IPO Investors 1,250,000
Issue Size (` Cr.) 113.92-122.91
Price Band (` ) 195-215
Offer Date 1-Feb-13
Close Date 5-Feb-13
Face Value 10
Lot Size 66 Shares
CARE IPO Grade 3/5 Indicating average
fundamental
* Calculated on the basis of higher price band
SMC Ranking
1415
®
1416
®
MUTUAL FUND
17
NEWS
®
HDFC MF introduces FMP 372D January 2013 (3)
HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 372D January 2013 (3), a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on
January 31, 2013 and closes on February 4, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in debt / money market
instruments and government securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective plans.
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series Gk (539 days)
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series Gk (539 days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO
opens for subscription on February 1, 2013 and closes on February 6, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a
portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
LIC Nomura MF receives approval to launch RGESS
LIC Nomura Mutual Fund has obtained approval from SEBI to launch the Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme (RGESS). The RGESS, which was announced in the
Budget for 2012-13, seeks to provide tax benefits to first-time investors in stock markets. Under the scheme, an individual with an income of up to Rs 10 lakhs
would get tax incentives for investing up to Rs 50,000 under Section 80CCG of IT Act, 1961.
Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond Fund declares revision
Canara Robeco Mutual Fund has declared revision in exit load under Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond Fund, with effect from January 29, 2013. Accordingly, the
revised exit load is 0.50% if redeemed or switched out within 6 months from the date of allotment and nil if redeemed or switched out after 6 months from the
date of allotment.
Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 39 Scheme A declares dividend
Tata Mutual Fund has declared dividend under the periodic dividend option of Tata Fixed Maturity Plan Series 39 - Scheme A. The record date for dividend is
February 4, 2013. The amount of dividend will be entire distributable surplus as on the record date, on the face value of RS 10 per unit.
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan Series GJ (367 days),
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series GJ (367 days), a close ended income scheme. The NFO
opens for subscription on February 1, 2013 and closes on February 4, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a
portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme
ICICI Prudential MF declares dividend under FMP
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has declared dividend under ICICI Prudential Fixed Maturity Plan Series 63 - 3 Years Plan K. The record date for dividend is February
5, 2013. The recommended rate of dividend on the face value of Rs 10 per unit will be Rs 0.6059 per unit.
NFO
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
22-Jan-2013 04-Feb-2013 Close-Ended Growth ` 5000-DWS Hybrid Fixed Term Fund - Series 11 (39 months) (G)
Akash Singhania / Kumaresh Ramkrishnan
To generate income by investing in fixed income securities maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme and to generate capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments
01-Feb-2013 06-Feb-2013 Close-Ended Dividend `5000/-Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series GK (539 Days) (D)
Kaustubh GuptaTo generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the Scheme
01-Feb-2013 04-Feb-2013 Open-Ended Dividend `5000/-Reliance Yearly Interval Fund - Series 2 (D)
Amit TripathiTo seek to generate returns and growth of
capital by investing in a diversified portfolio
of the following securities which are
maturing on or before the next specified
transaction date of the scheme with the
objective of limiting interest rate volatility
Central and State Government securities and
Other fixed income/ debt securities
01-Feb-2013 06-Feb-2013 Close-Ended Dividend `10000/-IDFC Fixed Term Plan Series 8 (HD)
Anupam JoshiTo generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.
07-Feb-2013 11-Feb-2013 Close-Ended Dividend `5000/-Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series GL (534 Days) (D)
Kaustubh GuptaTo generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the Scheme.
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Emerg Buss Fund - Growth 60.4 17-Sep-2004 989.23 12.52 25.10 42.68 22.66 23.94 1.87 0.66 0.39 10.36 60.73 22.22 6.68
Axis Midcap Fund - Growth 13.5 18-Feb-2011 115.51 10.93 28.33 38.91 NA 16.61 1.92 0.79 0.37 9.73 74.65 8.80 6.80
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 17.16 13-Jan-2006 334.97 10.30 23.70 37.69 10.69 7.95 1.78 0.70 0.39 9.39 76.83 6.93 6.83
Taurus Discovery Fund - Growth 17.48 03-Jan-1996 26.49 8.98 29.00 37.41 6.67 5.38 2.13 0.89 0.30 19.84 68.29 9.95 1.92
Principal Emerging Bluechip Fund - G 34.1 12-Nov-2008 283.33 10.36 24.14 36.99 7.15 33.72 1.89 0.85 0.37 38.97 57.40 2.09 1.52
BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund - Growth 12.32 02-May-2006 34.06 8.43 21.20 35.20 14.84 3.13 1.63 0.66 0.38 17.38 72.12 4.86 5.64
Birla Sun Life India GenNext Fund - G 31.66 05-Aug-2005 110.28 9.70 22.05 34.22 17.45 16.62 1.43 0.61 0.31 51.63 38.59 3.51 6.26
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 31/01/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 57.93 09-Oct-1995 359.27 9.43 18.76 27.26 7.36 16.09 1.14 0.25 28.05 31.67 7.97 32.28
Reliance RSF - Balanced - Growth 25.69 08-Jun-2005 556.47 6.37 15.17 23.85 10.87 13.12 1.42 0.16 50.02 14.56 5.23 30.17
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 57.18 03-Nov-1999 381.15 9.23 18.19 23.83 13.21 14.06 1.19 0.18 46.20 22.79 31.00
Principal Balanced Fund - Growth 34.41 14-Jan-2000 16.33 7.77 16.05 22.87 5.79 9.93 1.27 0.19 43.50 23.76 0.86 31.86
Tata Balanced Fund - Growth 98.52 08-Oct-1995 445.62 4.93 12.12 21.59 10.91 16.17 1.29 0.13 43.01 26.15 1.16 29.66
Canara Robeco Balance - Growth 71.65 01-Feb-1993 202.95 5.45 11.22 20.10 10.68 10.54 1.09 0.09 45.05 21.59 3.64 29.69
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 88.58 20-Jan-1995 951.38 6.02 14.28 18.71 7.51 16.61 1.28 0.10 52.50 21.96 25.53
NA
NA
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
SBI Magnum Income - Growth 28.70 25-Nov-1998 1086.68 -7.18 -11.46 18.79 13.43 12.53 8.91 7.67 15.94 0.35 4763.00 8.75
Kotak Bond Deposit - Growth 31.39 25-Nov-1999 3039.74 -5.51 -7.49 16.43 11.84 12.11 8.82 9.06 18.29 0.31 3843.00 9.00
Kotak Bond Scheme - Plan A - Growth 33.63 25-Nov-1999 3039.74 -5.79 -7.75 16.23 11.74 12.05 8.80 9.63 18.30 0.31 3843.00 9.00
Templeton India IBA - Plan A - Growth 39.22 23-Jun-1997 337.34 -2.79 -0.11 12.55 12.07 11.88 9.00 9.14 8.91 0.50 2340.00 10.19
Templeton India IBA - Plan B - Growth 39.22 23-Jun-1997 337.34 -2.79 -0.11 12.55 12.07 11.88 9.00 9.14 8.91 0.50 2340.00 10.19
Sundaram Bond Saver - Reg - Growth 33.66 18-Dec-1997 85.46 -7.61 -10.51 17.83 12.51 11.75 7.55 8.31 11.49 0.35 4457.00 8.52
IDFC D B F- Plan A - Growth 23.31 25-Jun-2002 2386.71 -9.49 -13.47 19.74 12.95 11.68 8.83 8.30 14.30 0.30 4979.00 8.33
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Escorts Short Term Debt Fund - Growth 17.45 29-Dec-2005 9.97 8.08 8.54 10.54 11.41 10.81 9.49 8.17 2.78 1.22 168.00 N.A
UTI Short Term Income Fund - Ret - G 20.11 23-Jun-2003 2050.79 6.00 5.38 13.96 11.26 10.65 8.82 7.54 6.55 0.49 1411.00 N.A
Sundaram Select Debt - S T A P - Reg - App. 19.76 04-Sep-2002 17.25 1.98 1.95 13.35 10.78 11.07 9.24 6.76 4.28 0.86 1632.00 9.42
Templeton India STIP - Growth 2321.84 31-Jan-2002 6035.38 1.87 5.42 10.58 10.12 10.18 8.27 7.95 4.45 0.62 898.00 10.36
SBI Short Term Debt Fund - Growth 13.30 27-Jul-2007 2249.28 1.22 2.82 9.90 10.05 10.35 8.05 5.31 5.29 0.54 1128.00 8.46
Birla Sun Life Short Term Opp. Fund - G 18.35 24-Apr-2003 285.04 11.70 9.90 10.32 10.02 11.16 8.97 6.41 5.14 0.69 -1.00 10.08
ICICI Prudential STP - Growth 23.63 25-Oct-2001 4509.83 3.86 4.23 11.51 9.99 9.72 7.68 7.93 5.01 0.46 1142.00 9.04
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Indiabulls Ultra Short Term Fund - G 1108.39 06-Jan-2012 524.19 9.02 97.00 8.70 8.70 8.86 9.37 10.07 10.08 1.48 1.79
JM Money Manager Fund - Reg - Growth 16.07 27-Sep-2006 187.29 9.47 53.00 8.81 8.86 8.99 9.21 10.08 8.76 7.75 0.76 3.47
Principal Debt Opp. Fund - Corporate Bond Plan - G 1804.15 14-Sep-2004 4.91 8.91 465.00 3.53 4.67 9.84 9.20 9.39 8.00 7.29 5.44 0.39
Templeton India Low Duration Fund - G 12.52 26-Jul-2010 3172.53 9.57 139.00 5.84 7.06 8.68 9.19 10.08 9.34 1.76 1.52
Kotak Floater - LT - Growth 18.41 13-Aug-2004 4084.42 9.25 110.00 6.75 7.30 8.59 9.00 9.51 8.26 7.47 1.26 1.71
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 16.07 17-Jan-2006 800.87 8.66 54.00 7.90 8.12 8.49 8.96 10.10 8.58 6.97 2.82 0.93
DWS Cash Opportunities Fund - Reg - G 15.41 22-Jun-2007 412.85 9.50 150.00 3.69 5.70 8.07 8.94 9.83 8.02 8.01 1.06 2.36
NA
NA
Annualised
®
