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Modes of governance and the effect on learning patterns: Comparing the case of lithium-ion batteries in the US and Japan

Annegret Stephan, Catharina Bening, Tobias S. Schmidt, Volker H. HoffmannGroup for Sustainability and Technology, ETH Zurich

Frontiers in Energy Research, ETH Zurich April, 14th, 2015

Knowledge creation across industry sectors in the field of lithium-ion batteries –Who knows what, when and why?




||Platzhalter Logo/Schriftzug(Anpassung im Folienmaster: Menü «Ansicht» «Folienmaster»)

Integratingintermittendrenewables intothe electricitysystem

Electrification oftransportation

Lithium-ion batteries can play a key role in severalmeans to cope with the world’s key challenges

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Climatechangemitigation

Reduction ofressourcedepletion

Fosteringeconomicgrowth

Electrification ofdevelopingcountries [1]

MOTIVATION





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Electrification ofdevelopingcountries

Storage can shift electricity supply anddemand

Storage

Source: ETH Zurich

MOTIVATION



Electrification oftransportation [1]


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Highest world oil demand comes from thetransportation sector [1], which can bereduced due to electric vehicles

[1] IEA (2012)

MOTIVATION



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Renewables with storage can provideaffordable electricity [2] Integrating

intermittendrenewables intothe electricitysystem


[2] Blum et al. (2013)

MOTIVATION





16.04.2015 6





Policy makers, academia and industryaim at accelerating technologicalprogress in this field

MOTIVATION


…important for the future energy system Technological change is aimed by policy makers, academia and industry

Knowledge creation

Lithium-ion battery technology is…

16.04.2015 7

…a multi-component technology that is produced in different sectors

Which patterns of knowledge creation

can be found across the different sectors of the

lithium-ion battery technology?

Image sources: Rockwood Holdings, Inc., SAE, arstechnica

Chemicals

Different sectors

Diffe

rent

com

pone

nts

CellSystem

Application/Use

MainComponents

PeripheralComponents

Electric & Electronics

Transport.Equipment Instruments

MOTIVATION


Agenda

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Theoretical Embedding

Data & Methodology

Results & Discussion

Implications & Further Research



Data & Methodology



Agenda

16.04.2015 9

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Literature gap

10

THEORETICAL EMBEDDING

Dimensions[1] Sectors’ differences

Technological artifacts • Different outputs (according to definition)

Knowledge bases

• Different product and process knowledge• Center around/come from different scientific fields

Actors andnetworks

• Different firms• Sector-specific networks

Institutions• Different laws, norms, habits• Different standardization bodies and processes• Different labor markets and financial institutions

the sectoral dimension

2

s

of a multi-component

3

sectoral

technological

geographical

technological innovation system (TIS)

1

This study is a first attempt to investigate…


sectoral

technological

geographical

[3] Jacobsson & Bergek (2011), [4] Carlsson & Stankiewicz (1991), [5] Hekkert et al. (2007), [6] Bergek et al. (2008), [7] Markard &Truffer (2008)

BUT: Sectoral dimension has not been explicitly analyzed before

1 Technological innovation system

The technological innovation system approach lacks a sectoral conceptualization…

11

Innovation System Approaches Technological Innovation System

Aim: Understanding mechanisms underlying the evolution of technologies to derive policy recommendations [3]

Systemic perspective on a technology [4]

Knowledge development and diffusion is one of the most important processes shaping TIS evolution [5],[6]

A sectoral conceptualization might help TIS scholars to develop an enhanced understanding of technological evolution


1

TISs are affected (or constrained) by geographical and sectoral dimensions [4],[7]

||Platzhalter Logo/Schriftzug(Anpassung im Folienmaster: Menü «Ansicht» «Folienmaster») 16.04.2015[8] Malerba (2004),[9] Pavitt (1984), [10] Iammarino & McCann (2006), [11] Breschi & Malerba (1997) distinguish between different sector types based on different dimensions

…although sectors differ in their innovation behavior due to differences in certain dimensions

12


Sector = The aggregation of firms with similar output that are in competition with each other and that center around similar production techniques.



Knowledge bases


Actors andnetworks



Different types ofsectors in termsof innovationbehavior [9],[10],[11]

2


…and multi-component technologies cut across different sectors

13

Technology Architecture [12] Sectoral Configuration of a TIS

SectorA

SectorB

SectorC

Component1

Subsystem

Integrated System

Component2

SectorD

Actor

Technology artifactSectoral boundary

Sector-specific network

produces

determines

Foca

lTIS

Oth

er T

ISs

Relationship between technology architecture and the sectoral configuration of a TIS

3

[12] Henderson & Clark (1990)



Explanations of the used terms

14


Terms Explanations

Technological innovationsystem (TIS)

• Encompasses all actors that interact ”in a specific economic/industrial area under a particular institutional infrastructure and involved in the generation, diffusion, and utilization of technology“ [4], p. 111

Sector• The aggregation of firms with similar output that are in competition with each

other and that center around similar production techniques

Technology architecture

• the way how different components and subsystems are integrated and linked in one technology [12]

Sectoral configuration

• The number and kind of sectors

TIS function• Core process that shapes the evolution of a TIS [5],6]

Knowledge developmentand diffusion

• “captures the breadth and depth of the current knowledge base of the TIS, and how that changes over time, including how knowledge is diffused and combined in the system” [6], p. 414

Technological innovationsystem (TIS)

[4] Carlsson & Stankiewicz (1991), [5] Hekkert et al. (2007), [6] Bergek et al. (2008), [12] Henderson & Clark (1990)


Literature gap and research questions

15


This study is a first attempt to investigate…



Knowledge bases


Actors andnetworks



the sectoral dimension

2

s

of a multi-component

3

sectoral

technological

geographical

technological innovation system (TIS)

1

How do different sectors affect the

functional dynamics in technological

innovation systems?

Which patterns of knowledge creation

can be found across the different sectors of the

lithium-ion battery technology?



Data & Methodology



Agenda

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The research question is investigated with a quantitative analysis of lithium-ion battery patent data in Japan

17

DATA & METHODOLOGY

Multi-component technology that isproduced in different sectors

Reasoning

Technological progress hasoccured in the last 30 years

Li-ionbatterytechnology Considered to play an important role in

future energy andtransportation systems

Patent dataanalysis

JapanHighest share of patents (73.5%) in the analyzed period

TIS literature suggests patents asone measure for knowledgedevelopment and diffusion [5],[6]

Wide use of patents as a measure forinventive activity and knowledge flows [13], [14]

Operationalization

Knowledge development: Counts ofpatentsKnowledge diffusion: Counts ofpatents’ forward citations

Patent data imply several limitations[15],[16],[17]!

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

US

JP

Others

Analyzed period

[5] Hekkert et al. (2007), [6] Bergek et al. (2008), [13] Grilliches (1998), [14] Jaffe (1989), [15] Bergeron et al. (1998), [16] Alcazer & Gittelman (2006), [17] Criscuolo & Verspagen (2008)


Data retrieval and processing

18

DATA & METHODOLOGY

Thomson Innovation Database Search: Keyword-based and classification based Several rounds (test for false positives and false negatives)

1. Data retrieval

3. Analysis

Database: 13,090 patents from Japan1

Descriptive quantitative analysis with Pajek2

1 Country assignment via priority country 2 Software normally used for social network analysis

Technology Architecture Sectoral Configuration of a TIS

SectorA

SectorB

SectorC

Component1

Subsystem

Integrated System

Component2

SectorD

produces

determines

Tech

nolo

gy A

rchi

tect

ure

Cate

gorie

s

Cell System

Application/Use

Main Components

Sectors

• Electric vehicle• Laptop…

• Second. battery• Stationary battery…

• Anode, Cathode• Electrolyte…

Peripheral Components

• Wiring• Cooling…

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EPI/CPI Manual CodesFactor analysis based classification, 50% ruleUnambiguous classification

Technology architecture

SIC Codes (SIC1-8)Unavailability: manual co-ding of publicly available company informationMultiple classification possible

Sectors

2. Data preparation



Data & Methodology



Agenda

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Counts of patentsTotal patents: 13090 100% = 27754 (multiple classification possible)

6948 4515

16772261 953

1075

1787 1191

542

100%=703 Patents

100%=2133 Patents

100%=1362 Patents

100%=8892 Patents

110 40 2806 302 665816 2548 32 904 9906911103521278100% [Patents](multiple classification possible)

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Patterns of knowledge development (1/2)

1985-2005

8

17.10.2014

Sectors differ in their total patent activity

Patent activity can be found within (specialization) and outside (diversification) the sectors’ production activities

Results

Patent activities in the respective technology architecture categories differ

Within production activities

RESULTS & DISCUSSION

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Counts of patentsTotal patents: 13090 100% = 27754 (multiple classification possible)

6948 4515

16772261 953

1075

1787 1191

542

100%=703 Patents

100%=2133 Patents

100%=1362 Patents

100%=8892 Patents

110 40 2806 302 665816 2548 32 904 9906911103521278100% [Patents](multiple classification possible)

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Patterns of knowledge development (2/2)

1985-2005

8

17.10.2014

Sectors differ in their total patent activity

Patent activity can be found within (specialization) and outside (diversification) the sectors’ production activities

Results

Patent activities in the respective technology architecture categories differ

17.10.2014

DiscussionSpecialization Firms develop their

technological capabilities close to their production capabilities [15], especially in cumulative technologies [18]

Higher costs of search outside firms’ contextual boundary [19]

Diversification Rather into upstream

knowledge [9]

System integrators diversify their knowledge due to uncertainty, technological maturity, technological newness [20],[21],[22]

[9] Pavitt (1984), [15] Bergeron et al. (1998), [18] Stuart & Podolny (1996), [19] Rosenkopf & Almeida (2003), [20] Brusoni et al. (2001), [21] Lee & Veloso (2008), [22] Takeishi (2002)


PRELIMINARY


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Counts of patents

Counts of patents’ forward citations

Ø num. citations: 1.4

220 131 10533 969 18772091 9565 114 1492 275220554285893643100% [Citations]




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Patterns of knowledge diffusion (1/2)

1985-2005

8

17.10.2014

Citations differ significantly between sectors

Likelihood to be cited varies between technology architecture categories

Results

Number of citations with regard to arcs’ direction: horizontal > diagonal > loops > vertical

horizontaldiagnoal vertical

loop


PRELIMINARY


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Counts of patents

Counts of patents’ forward citations


220 131 10533 969 18772091 9565 114 1492 275220554285893643100% [Citations]




16.04.2015

Patterns of knowledge diffusion (2/2)

1985-2005

8

17.10.2014

Citations differ significantly between sectors

Likelihood to be cited varies between technology architecture categories

Results

Number of citations with regard to arcs’ direction: horizontal > diagonal > loops > vertical knowledge diffuses between sectors to a significant extend

Discussion

Knowledge diffuses better between similar firms [23]

Knowledge diffuses rather between firms of the same sector than of different sectors [24]

Knowledge diffusion across sectors: technological nearness? [6]

Beyond literature insights: knowledge diffusion across technology architecture categories and sectors

[23] Lane & Lubatkin (1998), [24] Pan et al. (2009), [25] Battke et al. (2014)


PRELIMINARY


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Counts of patents forward citations

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Evolution of knowledge development and diffusion (1/2)

Counts of patents

Counts of forward citations

1985-1990Re

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PRELIMINARY


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PRELIMINARY


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1985-2005

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PRELIMINARY


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Counts of patents


1985-2005Re

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ch

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16.04.2015 27

PRELIMINARY


1985-20001985-19951985-1990

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arch

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1985-2005

Results Knowledge development and diffusion started in some technology architecture categories and spread to

other categories over time Sectors started patenting at different times


Detailed in following pages

16.04.2015 28

PRELIMINARY


“Peak” activities vary between different sectors

The share on patents of different sectors changes over time (e.g. transportation equipment)

The importance of some sectors’ role (esp. “using” batteries) seems to increase continuously (e.g., transportation equipment)

050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fabricated Metal

Rubber & Plastics

Chemicals

Electronics & Electric

Primary Metal

Transportation Equipment

Industrial Equipment

The role of different sectors varies over timeRESULTS & DISCUSSION

Results

Number of patents from selected sectors over time

16.04.2015 29

PRELIMINARY


050

100150200250300350400450500550600650700750800850

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

ChemicalsTransportation Equipment

Fabricated Metal

Rubber & Plastics

Electronics & Electric

Primary Metal

Industrial Equipment

The role of different sectors varies over timeRESULTS & DISCUSSION

Number of patents from selected sectors over time

Discussion

Can the sectors’ knowledge development activities be related to the multi-purpose [26] of Li-ion batteries?

16.04.2015 30[26] Battke et al. (2013)

PRELIMINARY

“Peak” activities vary between different sectors

The share on patents of different sectors changes over time (e.g. transportation equipment)

The importance of some sectors’ role (esp. “using” batteries) seems to increase continuously (e.g., transportation equipment)

Results



Data & Methodology



Agenda

16.04.2015 31


Specific knowledge patterns in the lithium-ion battery technology

Theoretical and practical contribution

16.04.2015

Contributions

IMPLICATIONS & FURTHER RESEARCH

Implications for (TIS) research

Sectoral dimension has to be included in TIS approach for multi-component technologies

Explore unexpected patterns Further explore the direction

of knowledge diffusion

Explore the role of different types and configurations of sectors

Integrate both spatial and sectoral dimension simul-taneously into TIS approach

Methodological approach

Implications for policy makers

Consider sector-specific knowledge patterns

Consider multi-purpose character of batteries

Consider sectoral availability and configuration and their changes over time

Apply methodological approach to other core processes in a TIS prove validity of conceptual suggestion

32

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