A MEASURE OF GROWTH AT DIFFERENT STAGES

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Objectives

We will be able to use the Demographic Transition Model to identify the nature of population increase or decrease based on the development level of a particular country.

Demographic Transition

Process of change in a society’s populationFrom high CBR and CDR and low rate of

Natural Increase (NIR) to a condition of low CBR and CDR, low NIR, and higher total population

Necessary Data…

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)- total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive

Crude Death Rate (CDR)- total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive

Natural Increase Rate (NIR)- percentage a population grows in a year. CBR-CDR=NIR

Calculate the NIR if the CBR is 20 and the CDR is 5

Stages of the Demographic Transition Model

4 stages to the DTM (a 5th is debated) Stage 1- Low Growth Stage 2- High Growth Stage 3- Decreasing Growth Stage 4- Low Growth

Stage 1- Low Growth

Very High CBR and CDR- virtually no NIRMost of human history spent in stage 1Depends on the availability of food

What stage of human history/development do you believe best characterizes stage 1?

Stage 2- High Growth

Rapidly declining CDR, very high CBR= very high NIR

Europe and North America entered stage 2 after ~1750. WHY?

Industrial Revolution

Africa, Asia, and Latin America entered around 1950. WHY?

Medical Revolution

Stage 3- Decreasing Growth

CBR rapidly declines, CDR declines, NIR moderates

Population continues to grow because CBR is greater than CDR

People decide to have less children at this stage. Why?

Stage 4- Low Growth

Very low CBR, CDR, NIR creates low growth or a possible decrease

Zero population growth (ZPG) can be achieved at this level

More opportunities for woman Education Enter labor force

Access to Birth ControlWhich countries that we have discussed may fall in

this stage?How does the DTM create a cycle? What are the

similarities between stage 1 and 4?

Connecting our concepts

What might the population pyramids for a country at different stages look like (1, 2, 3, and 4 Jigsaw)? Roughly sketch them in your notes

DTM Practice

Create a Demographic Transition Model based off of the data from England.