European Population Crisis? Dennis Hogan. Stages of the Demographic Transition.
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Transcript of European Population Crisis? Dennis Hogan. Stages of the Demographic Transition.
![Page 1: European Population Crisis? Dennis Hogan. Stages of the Demographic Transition.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070406/56649e045503460f94af0b7e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
European Population Crisis?
Dennis Hogan
![Page 2: European Population Crisis? Dennis Hogan. Stages of the Demographic Transition.](https://reader036.fdocuments.in/reader036/viewer/2022070406/56649e045503460f94af0b7e/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Stages of the Demographic Transition
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Aging of the Population
• Mostly due to decline in FERTILITY • Declines in death rates only important at very
advanced ages (80+)• In fact populations would not grow old even if
immortality, unless fertility rates are below replacement
• The age/sex pyramid reflects what has already happened
• Only future fertility is a question
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Age Structure Depends on Fertility
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Aging of All Populations:Developed Nations First in Transition
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Age Pyramids Reflect History
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Decline in Fertility-Germany
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Proximate Causes of Low Fertility
• Decline in desired family size • Delays in age at marriage/partnership reduces
period of exposure• Improvement in contraception– Unwanted births avoided– Mistimed births delayed– Longer birth intervals– Decline in higher order births at ages 40+
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Social Factors in Low Fertility-1
• Delayed transition to adulthood– prolonged years in school– Problems in work/income independence– Prolonged residence with parents
• Need for both husband/wife to work– Declines in real earnings last 30 years– Dual Income needed for household to avoid
poverty– No longer can husband alone support family
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Social Factors in Low Fertility-2• Women’s work– Initially need to pay off human capital investment– Better returns on higher education=better paying
jobs– Women begin to have careers not just jobs– Increased opportunity costs of discontinuing work
• Women’s need for autonomy– Independent decision making?– Fertility outside of marriage– Unmarried births very young ages (social exclusion
and dependency)
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Fertility Higher-1• If unplanned births happen (young premarital
births)==social support to escape bad life• If support for women’s work– Hourly earnings adequate for part-time work– Childcare access, quality, affordability (could be
family based)– Generous maternity leave– Flexible work schedules
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TFR & Non-marital births
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TFR and Women’s Employment
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Fertility Higher-2
• Father Involvement– Household jobs– Childrearing shared
• Affordable housing• Social investments in children (reduce cost of
children to parents)– Income supplements per child– Child care– Free education & health care
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Aging Population a Problem?
• Less innovation• Slow response to social transformations (need
cohort replacement)• Less vibrant, healthy, intensive workforce• Lack of opportunity for new workers (old stay on
jobs-little cohort turnover)• High old age dependency burden• High medical costs of very old (last year of life?)• Decline in national power (vis Israel)
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Aging Population an Advantage?
• Reduced child dependency costs• Invest better skills for mid-life workers• Experienced labor force (key element of
human capital)• Social stability• War less likely?• Lower crime rate
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Labor Shortage and High Consumptionin Aging Population
• Improvement in Human Capital• Technological Innovation• Full employment – young (not most of Europe)– Women (not in Japan)– Minorities (excluded populations)
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Solutions to Old Age Dependency
• Increase in age at retirement (62 to 65, 65 to 67)
• Encourage individual savings for retirement• Smart retirement consumption (internet)• Contact with family, friends thru internet
(more social support?)• Better health among better educated• Less use of extreme health measures
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The Demographic Myth• Uses period rates to predict the future• Fails to recognize social adjustments to
demographic change (social system to support mothers working and child subsidies)
• Fails to recognize increasing value of children and young adults when small cohorts– Easterlin—increased fertility as consumer durable
• Assumes no increase in fertility desires (from 0,1 to 2)– Great depression 1930s proves wrong
• Hogan Prediction – Fertility increase in Europe by 2025