5 Financial Crisis 4 India BOI Share Holding

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A Joint Venture of Bank Of India & The Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd.



BOI SHAREHOLDING LTD.

Manages Clearing House of Bombay Stock Exchange

(BSE) since 1989.

A joint venture between Bank of India & BSE.

Board consists 8 members – 4 each from BOI & BSE,

Chairman & Managing Director of BOI is Chairman of the Company.

Functions:

Clearing & Settlement

Collateral Management for the Exchange.

Depository Services under CDSL & NSDL Depository.

Franking & Collection of stamp Duty in the State of

Maharashtra.



GENESIS OF GLOBAL

FINANCIAL CRISIS



Monetary Policy in the US and other WesternCountries were eased aggressively after dot com

bubble.

Policy rates in the US reached 1% in June 2003.The monetary excess during 2002-06 leading to

Housing Boom.

Assets prices recorded strong gains. Demandconstantly exceeded domestic output.

This mirrored in large growing Current Account

deficit over the period.



China/East Asian Countries exporting to USA at low cost leading to

growing surplus.

Creations of huge Forex Reserves at EMEs.

The Forex Reserves deployed back in US Treasuries.

This flood of dollar resulted in sharp rise in US spending.

Large Global imbalance due to very low interest rate and

accommodative monetary policy.

Projected global growth in April 2008 at 3.8% down to contract by1.3%.

Major advance economies are in recession.

Global trade volume to contract by 11%



Indicator

2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 2009 2008 20

1. Global

Growth 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3 3.4 0.5 3.4 0.5 3.2 -1

(a)Advanced

Economie

s 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 0.5 1 -2 1 -2 0.9 -3(b) EMEs 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.9 6.1 6.3 3.3 6.3 3.3 6.1 1

2. World

Trade

Volume 3.7 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.9 3 4.1 -2.8 4.1 -2.8 3.3 -1

Table 2: Global Economic Outlook for 2009 (per cent)

Month of Forecast

Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Apr-



COMPONENT OF CRISIS

Crisis roots in USA.

Sustain rise in Asset prices, lax lending standards in 2002-06. Low credit quality.

Originate Distribute model. Strong growth in complex credit

derivatives.

Predominately Sub-Prime mortgages sold to financial investors.

Inflation in USA started to rise in 2004 – so rise in interest rate.

Housing prices depressed. With low/negligible margin; prime-

borrower encouraged to default.



US regulatory failure, multiplicity of regulators, well over 100

at the federal and state level.Role of rating agencies.

Default by such borrowing led to losses by financial

institution.

Wiping of significant portion of capital of Banks.

Mounted losses and dwindling net worth led to breakdown of trust among banks.

Inter-bank money market nearly frozen.

Failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Complete loss of confidence.

Dee and lin erin crisis in lobal financial market.

i i f i



Implications for Emerging

Market Economy

Beginning 2003 low interest regime in USA, flight of capital to EMEs.

Average flow of USD 285 Billion during 2003-2007.

Peak of USD 617 Billing in 2007.

Estimated outflow of USD 190 billion in 2008-09.

Portfolio and private flows were volatile.

Substantial accumulation of large forex reserves withEMEs.

Constant volatility in capital flows impinges on Exchange

rate movements.



Excess Foreign Exchange reserves necessitates sterilisation

and more active monetary policy.

Excess capital flows results boom in Capital Market andhigh domestic credit and other assets prices.

Abrupt reversal in capital flows leads to significantdifficulties in economy.

In current financial crisis reversal of capital flow are quick,leading to contraction of Bank Credit and collapsed stock prices.

This further leads to banking and currency crisis,employment and output losses.



IMPACT ON INDIAA . Impact of sub-prime crisis.

As initial impact of sub – prime crisis, followed bycuts in US fed fund rates, resulted in massive jump innet capital in flow.

RBI sterlize liquidity by increase in cash reserve ratesand through market Stablisation scheme (MSS)

Policy rates were also raised

India has limited exposure on complex derivations.

Lower presence of foreign banks also minimised directimpact.



B. Fiscal Impact

Govt. did higher expenditure on account of higher crudeprice, subsidies, debt waiver scheme in 2008-09.

Fiscal deficit doubled from 2.7% of GDP in 2007-08 to 6%

in 2008-09.

Net Market borrowing trebled from Rs. 130 billion to Rs.329.65 billion.

Standard is Poor downgraded its outlook on long termsovereign rating from stable to negative



C. Impact on Real Economy

Slowdown in external demand, reversal of capital flow,growth in Industrial production decelerated to 2.8% in2008-09 from 8% previous year.

Service sector remained largely in effected with growth of 9.7% in 2008-09 as against 10.5% in previous year.

Real GDP growth slowed down to 6.7% in 2008-09 asagainst 9%.

Rupee dollar rate under pressure. Rupee depreciated.

Slowdown in Exports.

Reduced credit take off.



Impact on Capital Market

Index Movement in last one year



Impact on Exchange Rates



Impact on yield on 10 years Government Bond



ACTION BY CENTRAL BANK

Cash Reserve Ratio brought down to 5% in January 2009from 9% (September 2008) injecting Rs. 1600 billion isprimary liquidity.

Statutory liquidity ratios brought down, opening of

refinance windows, refines to SIDBI and EXIM banks Repo and Reverse Repo rates are cut down from 9% to

4.75% and 6% to 3.25% respectively.

MSS operations were reversed Balance Rs. 860 billion end

March 2009 against Rs. 1754 billion at May 2007.



Various monitory and liquid measures released liquidityof Rs. 4900 Billion since mid September 2008 (about 9%GDP)

Banks were advised to step up lending to core sectors.

Banks were advised to bring down BPLR.

Restriction on interest rate to bulk deposits.

Restrictions loosened on External commercial borrowing

by corporates.

STRENGTH OF INDIAN



Full but gradual opening of current account.

Foreign investment flows are encouraged.

External commercial borrowing is subject to ceiling and end– use restrictions.

Macro ceiling stipulated on portfolio investment in Govt.Securities and Corporate Bonds by FIIs.

Imposition of prudential limits on Banks, such as inter-bank liabilities, borrowing and lending, money market, assets -liability Management for both on and off balance sheet terms.

STRENGTH OF INDIANFINANCIAL SECTOR



Implementation of Based II ……. Minimum 9%CRAR.

CRAR of all scheduled commercial banks at 13% atend March 2008.

Single factor stress tests reveal that Banks canwithstand shocks on account of change in creditquality, interest rates and liquidity conditions.

Strict prudential norms towards income recognition,Asset classifications and provisions by the Banks.

WHY THE INDIAN



WHY THE INDIAN

FINANCIAL SECTOR

WEATHERED THE STORM Negligible direct exposure to toxic assets which

contaminated Western Banking System.

Banks credit quality remained high.

Credit Growth apx. 30% during 2004-07.

RBI tightened prudential norms CRR at 13% at March2008 end against regulatory requirement of 9%.

Net NPA at 1% of net advance and 0.6% of assets.



LESSONS

Central Bank should adopt a broader macro-prudential

views of asset price movements, credit boom and the build

up of systematic risk.

Asset price bubble leads to strong credit growth such as realestate and stock market.

Only substantial hike in policy rates can pick the bubble.

Pre-emptive action like hike in risk weights and provisionnorms for Banks.



Sharper focus on liquidity risk management, risk

transmission.

Global imbalances are to be reduced to a manageableproportion.

US needs to save more & export more.

Asian Countries have to consume more, export less.



STABILITY BEYOND EXPECTATIONS.

INDIA GENERAL ELECTION

MAY 2009.



PRE-POLL CRITICAL ISSUES

Global Financial crisis. Rajor-thin majority Government.

Melt down in Capital Market. Sensex touching a lowof 8160 in April 2009, down from a peak of 20728, afall of 61%.

Weakening economy. Rising job losses in exportsector.

General Election in May 2009. Political Uncertainty

Formation of 4 front – UPA led by Congress, NDAled by BJP, Third Front – led by Left Parties.

No coalition likely to get majority



INDIAN ELECTIONS 2009

India, world’s 7th largest Country. Area 3.2 million sq.km.

Population more than 10.1 billion.

Religion – Hindu – 80.5%, Muslim – 13.4% (3rd largest)

Estimated voters 714 million.

Election duration – 1 months in 5 phases – 16 April to 13th

May 2009.Number of polling stations 687402

Number of Seats – 543

National parties 9

Regional parties 24



PRE – POLL MARKET SENTIMENTS

Either UPA or NDA form the Government. Both are

seen market friendly.

Market on upward swings since chances of LeftParties (3rd Front) were remote.

Market may show higher volatility if there is a

fractured verdict.

Sensex rises 300 points on the eve of election.



ELECTION RESULTS 2004 - 2009

YEAR 2004 2009UPA 220 262

NDA 185 157

OTHERS 137 17

III FRONT -- 80

IV FRONT -- 27

TOTAL 542 543



Major News Paper Headlines / Views

Finally a free hand

Decisive vote for growth.

The Indian economy is set to maintain its growth.

Stable Government to put the confidence laid to all time

high.

A strong Government, influence of the Left Partiesdisappeared.

With clear mandate there is a certainty in terms of policies.

POST – POLL MARKET

SENTIMENTS



The Congress will have the last word in issues of

Government .

Smooth transition of Government.

Economy will be the main priority of the Government.

Congress is a pre reform party.

The Congress will unlock long awaited reforms.



STABILITY - KEY AGENTS

Strong United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led governmentallows continuity in policies.

Smooth transition – this is more like an extension of UPA’sterm. IN the event of any other party / alliance coming to

power, it would have taken some time for the new governmentto formulate its policies.

UPA to continue with its policies with more power in handnow, no fear of strange coalitions or drag of the communist

parties anymore. Economic reforms may speed up. FDI inflows into the country

over the next 6-12 months can improve as India gets to play alarger role in G20.



Government is likely to continue to boost credit to supportgrowth.

Rural focus and reforms to speed up.

Disinvestments – Pressure on fiscal position will push the

government for disinvestments, though moves are unlikelyto be very aggressive.

Infrastructure – Focus on low-cost housing and powergeneration.

Focus on rural populace: Improve access to rural credit atlower interest rates;

Subsidise food for poor; implementation of NREGA;develop rural infrastructure.

Marching of reforms in financial sector in particularbanking and insurance.

ACTION AT DALAL



ACTION AT DALAL

STREET

May 15, 2009 - Previous Day Sensex at 12173.

May 18, 2009 -Market opened at 9.55 A.M. at 15% high

Circuit Breaker applied. Trading halted to 1 hour.

Market re-opened at 11.55 A.M. at 20% high.

Circuit Breaker applied. Market Closed for the day.

Sensex closed at 14284.

S F Th M th M 2009



Sensex For The Month May 2009

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

14000.00

16000.00

S e n s e x

18/05/09

15/05/09

(14296)

(12173)



There Were five days in which Circuit breaker had been

applied by the exchanges in the history.

The upper circuit filter was placed only once i.e on 18th

may 2009.

Market Wide circuit Breaker in the

Indian Stock Market

Table V Incidence of Market Wide Circuit Breaker In Indian Stock Market



Trade Date High Low ClosePreviousClose % Change

17-M ay-04 5020.89 4227.5 4505.16 5069.87 -16.62

22-M ay-06 11142.9 9826.91 10481.77 10938.61 -10.16

17-Oct-07 18841.29 17307.9 18715.82 19051.86 -9.15

22-Jan-08 17068.57 15332.42 16729.94 17605.35 -12.91

18-M ay-09 14284.21 13479.39 14284.21 12173.42 17.34

Table V – Incidence of Market Wide Circuit Breaker In Indian Stock Market

16884.09 -2272.93

OpeningPoints(Increase

5020.89 -842.37

13479.39 2110.79

11071.63 -1111.7

18037.9 -1743.96

Trade Market Wide Circuit Reason



Trade

Date

Market Wide Circuit

Breaker

Reason

17-May-04 10% MWCB applied at

about 10:15, trading haltedfor 1 hour. On resumption of

market after one hour at

about 11:15, MWCB

triggered on 15% circuit andtrading halted for another 2

hours.

BJP government

lost power

22-May-06 10% MWCB applied at11:56, trading halted for 1

hour.

Confusionregarding tax

circular.

Trade Market Wide Circuit Reason



Trade

Date

Market Wide Circuit

Breaker

Reason

17-Oct-07 MWCB applied at 9:56, tradinghalted for 1 hour.

Restrictions onParticipatory notes

22-Jan-08 MWCB applied at 9:56, trading

halted for 1 hour.

Financial crisis (realty

melt down)

18-May-09 MWCB applied at 9:55 (opening

index) on a day for 2 hours

(15%), subsequent to election

result in favour of Congress

government.market re-opened at

11:55 and MWCB applied for

20%, market halted for rest of the

day

General Election

Result in favour

of UPA



THANK YOU

5 Financial Crisis 4 India BOI Share Holding

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