Poli%cal  Update  2012    Pushing  the  Envelope:    

Democracy  and  Accountability        

 Sandra  Hamid  

The  Asia  Founda>on    

•  Contradic%ons  and  Disjuncture  

•  Accountability    

– Party  alliance  – Religious  Freedom  – An%  Corrup%on    

•  “Stagna%ng”  –  Fealey    •  “Regressing”  –  Tomsa  

Accountability    Elec%on    

 Party  Alliance:  No  Rhyme  or  Reason    

.  .  .    that  we  know  of    

•  Direct  elec%ons  and  alliance  •  Thousands  of  permuta%ons    •  Built  under  spotlight,  but  very  liMle  explana%ons  

   

•  Why  form  a  coali%on    

 To  fulfill  the  minimum  threshold  of  nomina%ng  candidates    

•  15%  of  votes  or  seats  in  the  House  •  President:  legisla%on  under  review.  Currently  25%  votes  or  20%  seats  DPR.  Smaller  par%es  would  like  to  reduce  it  to  3.5%  

•  Why  form  a  coali%on    

To  win  the  elec%ons?  

•  65  loss  in  Presiden%al  elec%ons  •  35  percent    loss  in  last  first  round  Jakarta  elec%ons  

•  Why  form  a  coali%on    And,  if  elected  –  to  make  sure  they  can  govern  effec%vely.  

 2009      Rizal  Sukma    -­‐-­‐    Yudhoyono  coali%on  as  a  way  to  

   provide  “stability  and  support  in  the  parliament”  

2010    see  Tomsa    2011      Agreement  with  poli%cal  par%es  2012    PKS  –  voted  against  the  coali%on  on  oil    

March  PKS  under  fire,  Now  PKS  s>ll  a  member  

 

Then  why?    

•  Explore  the  unintended  consequences,    which  perhaps  serves  as  incen>ve  

• ELECTION    

JAKARTA!    

•  Key  elec>on  prior  to  2014    

 •  Party  heavyweights  

 July  12:  First  round,  Six  Pairs  

 

 The  second  round  

 •  Last  two  standing  •  Everyone  vis-­‐à-­‐vis  PDIP  and  GERINDRA  

   Tracing  coali%ons    

 TRACING  COALITIONS:    2004,  2007,  2009,  20012    

 

Conclusion  on  Party  Alliance?  

•  No  Ideology    

Gamawan  Fauzi  and  Eva  Sundari  

 Religious  Freedom  

 •  Setara  Report:    •  2011:  299  •  2012:  un%l  June,  179    -­‐-­‐  not  including  the  bloody  violence  in  Madura,  East  Java,  against  the  Shiites  Moslem  

•  Fund  For  Peace:    •  Indonesia  did  not  do  well  despite  economic  growth.  Main  concern:  Demographic  pressure,  protec%on  for  minority,  human  rights.      

•  Intolerance  is  on  the  rise.  The  latest,  most  bloodiest,  this  year  was  in  East  Java.    

•  Sampang  –  2  deaths,  5  severely  wounded,  9  houses  burned  down,  approximately  200  displaced  

 

   

•  Local  poli>cs  not  well  managed  

•  Very  liTle  has  been  done  to  create  deterrent  effect    

•  Unclear  who  is  responsible  

 

Why  relocate  them?    Who  is  taking  ac>on?  

•  Providing  safety  –  displacing  the  minority    

•  Sending  mixed  messages:    

-­‐  President:  admiTed  that  the  intelligence  has  failed  .This  could  have  been  avoided  

-­‐    Minister  of  religion:  Need  dialog,  but  best  for  the  Shiites  to  “follow  the  Sunnis”.      

 

 

Lady  Gaga   18 March Ulama Council’s Cholil Ridwan declared the concert haram 9 May Islamic Front Defender, FPI threatens to stop her at the airport 11 May FUI meets with Humas Polri 12 May – Jakarta Police makes a statement declaring that the concert should not go ahead. “The concert permit is issued by the National Police,” Jakarta Police spokesman Rikwanto said, “but the Jakarta Police doesn’t recommend the concert be held.” May 15 - Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry spokesman I Gusti Ngurah Putra said promoters must respect local culture. “Promoters must clearly understand our traditions, rules and cultures. They’re professionals, they should have considered those things when making deals with artists and their managers,” Putra said. He acknowledged that his ministry has originally given go-ahead for the concert. May 15 – National Police reportedly told the Jakarta Police that they would not issue a permit. “National Police spokesman Insp. Gen. Saud Usman Nasution said that his office had denied the concert after receiving recommendation from the Jakarta Police, along with hearing objections from various groups.” Sometime around May 15 – FUI and MIUMI send letter to SBY saying concert should not go ahead May 16 – FPI told AFP that they would “create havoc” if Gaga was allowed to perform

May 21 FPI reveals that it has bought 157 tickets to go to the concert May 22 Hardliners met with DPR Komisi III to discuss their rejection of the concert May 22 Tempo reports that National Police will issue a permit, with requirements to get recommendations from the Religious Affairs Ministry and the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) tourism Ministry, the Home Affairs Ministry, the Director General of Immigration over Lady Gaga’s visa the Manpower and Transmigration Ministry. a permit from the management of Bung Karno Stadium, where the planned June 3 concert will be held, is also required May 22 Jakarta Police ready to dispatch 4,000 officers to secure concert if it goes ahead May 25 FUI/FPI rally in front of US Embassy May 27 Concert cancelled by Gaga’s management

So,  who  actually  made  the  decision?  How  do  we  know?  Who  is  responsible?    

Conclusions  

•  Indonesia  is  a  democracy,  but  stagnant  and  even  regressing    

•  Coali>ons  dilute  iden>ty  of  poli>cal  par>es  and  result  in  lack  of  ability  for  ci>zens  to  hold  their  officials  accountable,  because  no  one  party  or  official  is  uTerly  accountable  

•  Elec>ons  have  been  successful,  but  democracy  less  so  

•  Jokowi  –  what  his  victory  means  to  coali>ons  building    

Thank  you!