Poli%cal Update 2012 Pushing the Envelope:
Democracy and Accountability
Sandra Hamid
The Asia Founda>on
• Contradic%ons and Disjuncture
• Accountability
– Party alliance – Religious Freedom – An% Corrup%on
• “Stagna%ng” – Fealey • “Regressing” – Tomsa
Accountability Elec%on
Party Alliance: No Rhyme or Reason
. . . that we know of
• Direct elec%ons and alliance • Thousands of permuta%ons • Built under spotlight, but very liMle explana%ons
• Why form a coali%on
To fulfill the minimum threshold of nomina%ng candidates
• 15% of votes or seats in the House • President: legisla%on under review. Currently 25% votes or 20% seats DPR. Smaller par%es would like to reduce it to 3.5%
• Why form a coali%on
To win the elec%ons?
• 65 loss in Presiden%al elec%ons • 35 percent loss in last first round Jakarta elec%ons
• Why form a coali%on And, if elected – to make sure they can govern effec%vely.
2009 Rizal Sukma -‐-‐ Yudhoyono coali%on as a way to
provide “stability and support in the parliament”
2010 see Tomsa 2011 Agreement with poli%cal par%es 2012 PKS – voted against the coali%on on oil
March PKS under fire, Now PKS s>ll a member
Then why?
• Explore the unintended consequences, which perhaps serves as incen>ve
• ELECTION
JAKARTA!
• Key elec>on prior to 2014
• Party heavyweights
July 12: First round, Six Pairs
The second round
• Last two standing • Everyone vis-‐à-‐vis PDIP and GERINDRA
Tracing coali%ons
TRACING COALITIONS: 2004, 2007, 2009, 20012
Conclusion on Party Alliance?
• No Ideology
Gamawan Fauzi and Eva Sundari
Religious Freedom
• Setara Report: • 2011: 299 • 2012: un%l June, 179 -‐-‐ not including the bloody violence in Madura, East Java, against the Shiites Moslem
• Fund For Peace: • Indonesia did not do well despite economic growth. Main concern: Demographic pressure, protec%on for minority, human rights.
• Intolerance is on the rise. The latest, most bloodiest, this year was in East Java.
• Sampang – 2 deaths, 5 severely wounded, 9 houses burned down, approximately 200 displaced
• Local poli>cs not well managed
• Very liTle has been done to create deterrent effect
• Unclear who is responsible
Why relocate them? Who is taking ac>on?
• Providing safety – displacing the minority
• Sending mixed messages:
-‐ President: admiTed that the intelligence has failed .This could have been avoided
-‐ Minister of religion: Need dialog, but best for the Shiites to “follow the Sunnis”.
Lady Gaga 18 March Ulama Council’s Cholil Ridwan declared the concert haram 9 May Islamic Front Defender, FPI threatens to stop her at the airport 11 May FUI meets with Humas Polri 12 May – Jakarta Police makes a statement declaring that the concert should not go ahead. “The concert permit is issued by the National Police,” Jakarta Police spokesman Rikwanto said, “but the Jakarta Police doesn’t recommend the concert be held.” May 15 - Tourism and Creative Economy Ministry spokesman I Gusti Ngurah Putra said promoters must respect local culture. “Promoters must clearly understand our traditions, rules and cultures. They’re professionals, they should have considered those things when making deals with artists and their managers,” Putra said. He acknowledged that his ministry has originally given go-ahead for the concert. May 15 – National Police reportedly told the Jakarta Police that they would not issue a permit. “National Police spokesman Insp. Gen. Saud Usman Nasution said that his office had denied the concert after receiving recommendation from the Jakarta Police, along with hearing objections from various groups.” Sometime around May 15 – FUI and MIUMI send letter to SBY saying concert should not go ahead May 16 – FPI told AFP that they would “create havoc” if Gaga was allowed to perform
May 21 FPI reveals that it has bought 157 tickets to go to the concert May 22 Hardliners met with DPR Komisi III to discuss their rejection of the concert May 22 Tempo reports that National Police will issue a permit, with requirements to get recommendations from the Religious Affairs Ministry and the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) tourism Ministry, the Home Affairs Ministry, the Director General of Immigration over Lady Gaga’s visa the Manpower and Transmigration Ministry. a permit from the management of Bung Karno Stadium, where the planned June 3 concert will be held, is also required May 22 Jakarta Police ready to dispatch 4,000 officers to secure concert if it goes ahead May 25 FUI/FPI rally in front of US Embassy May 27 Concert cancelled by Gaga’s management
So, who actually made the decision? How do we know? Who is responsible?
Conclusions
• Indonesia is a democracy, but stagnant and even regressing
• Coali>ons dilute iden>ty of poli>cal par>es and result in lack of ability for ci>zens to hold their officials accountable, because no one party or official is uTerly accountable
• Elec>ons have been successful, but democracy less so
• Jokowi – what his victory means to coali>ons building
Thank you!
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