246414 Major threats to sustainable hydropower …...2017/05/23 · Major threats to sustainable...
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Example GLOF: • Dig Tsho GLOF, Khumbu area, Nepal, 1985 • ~5 million m 3 (2000 Olympic-size swimming pools) released in 4-5 hours • Nearly-completed $4M HPP was destroyed[ Major threats to sustainable hydropower development and operations in the Himalaya David E. Rheinheimer 1 , Ph.D., A.M.ACSE, Sanchit S. Agarwal 2 , M.L. Kansal 2 , Ph.D. Threats may be to or from hydropower systems To: hydropower systems receive the threat (e.g., a flood) From: hydropower systems cause the threat (e.g., environmental harm) Hydropower in the southern Himalaya Sustainability concepts Dig Tsho, 24 April, 2009; Source: ICIMOD (2011) Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) • Most (dangerous) glacial lakes are formed by a terminal moraine dam, left as a glacier retreats • A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) occurs when the moraine dam is breached • A GLOF is characterized by high flowrate in a very short period of time • GLOFs are highly destructive due to high discharge with high sediment load Vishnuprayag (400 MW), Alakananda River, 2013 Sediment Cloud burst floods • Cloud burst floods: greater than about 250 mm rainfall in 24 hours • Nandargi and Dhar (2011) counted 712 unique 250+ mm events recorded from 1871 to 2007 • Cloud burst events occur throughout the Himalaya • The 2013 Uttarakhand disaster highlights the exposure of hydropower to cloud burst events & GLOFs Geopolitical challenges • Hydropower resource location vis-à-vis energy demand • Development interests and financial constraints of different supranational, national and sub-national stakeholders • Distribution of hydropower development expertise • Unresolved border disputes • Transboundary hydrological threats Nov. 25, 2014: India and Nepal sign Arun III agreement; Sustainable hydropower development depends on international cooperation & energy/cost/information sharing • Balancing upstream-downstream sociopolitical dichotomies • Assessing cumulative environmental impacts in hydropower system planning • Designing and enforcing local environmental and social impact mitigation measures that support local sustainability • Accounting for hydroclimatic uncertainties and change, with both technical and sociopolitical solutions • Ensuring that international cooperation in planning and management of social, environmental, and economic systems related to hydropower supports sustainable development goals Key development challenges Source: www.theeconomist.com, Nov. 24, 2014 • Per capita energy demand is low but increasing due to increasing populations and rising per capita GDP • Region faces energy shortages as-is • A large underutilized hydropower potential exists • Hydropower will be increasingly used to achieve “clean” energy growth Technical threats •Hydroclimatic uncertainty •Extreme hydrologic events •Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) •Cloud burst floods •Land slide dam outburst floods Environmental threats • Ecosystem degradation from infrastructure & operations • Cumulative environmental impacts • Interactive impacts with climate change • Weak laws, policies and environmental mitigation practices Social threats • Degree of participatory development • Resettlement and rehabilitation policies • Potential insensitivity to cultural values • Equity between upstream & downstream communities • Degree of stakeholder cooperation • Geopolitical challenges Economic threats • Finance mechanism uncertainties • Energy economic uncertainties • Physical system degradation • Construction cost overruns • Unfulfilled local economic improvement •Extreme geologic events •Seismic activity (earthquakes) •Land slides •Sediment load Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge the Fulbright-Nehru Fellowship program, and the United States-India Educational Foundation for its administration and in-country support. We also thank the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee for hosting the lead author of this study. Source: Nandargi and Dhar (2011) Civil protests – A key challenge is the equitable distribution of energy and resources between local mountain communities and downstream energy beneficiaries, as well as respect of local values. www.xe.com Financial uncertainties • Natural gas prices; higher gas prices = higher hydropower value • Exchange rates; loans are often in USD, sales in local currency Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee 246414 1. University of Massachusetts Amherst, 2. Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee Can hydropower contribute to “sustainable development”? What factors should we consider when assessing hydropower sustainability? Motivating questions “Sustainable development” encompasses all development activity, so both types of threats affect sustainability of hydropower systems. Sustainable development implies dynamic decision-making and dynamic values: sustainable development is a moving target Economy Society Environment Environment Economy Society Intersecting domains Nested domains This effort identified dominant threats to economic, social, and environmental sustainability of hydropower development in the southern Himalaya, as well as technical sustainability. Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is traditionally organized by economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Against 444 MW Vishungad Pipalkoti, Alaknanda River Against Dam construction on the Pindari River Against the 2,000 MW Lower Subansiri project Source: Peasant Autonomy Source: Unknown Source: Unknown Source: Matu Jan Sangathan References For references and a copy of this poster, please see: https://thirdpolewater.wordpress.com/20 17/05/21/ewri-2017-poster/ Email: [email protected]
Transcript of 246414 Major threats to sustainable hydropower …...2017/05/23 · Major threats to sustainable...
Example GLOF:• Dig Tsho GLOF, Khumbu area, Nepal, 1985• ~5 million m3 (2000 Olympic-size swimming
pools) released in 4-5 hours• Nearly-completed $4M HPP was destroyed[
Major threats to sustainable hydropower development and operationsin the Himalaya
David E. Rheinheimer1, Ph.D., A.M.ACSE, Sanchit S. Agarwal2, M.L. Kansal2, Ph.D.
Threats may be to or from hydropower systemsTo: hydropower systems receive the threat (e.g., a flood)From: hydropower systems cause the threat (e.g., environmental harm)
Hydropower in the southern HimalayaSustainability concepts
Dig Tsho, 24 April, 2009; Source: ICIMOD (2011)
Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)
• Most (dangerous) glacial lakes are formed by a terminal moraine dam, left as a glacier retreats
• A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) occurs when the moraine dam is breached
• A GLOF is characterized by high flowrate in a very short period of time
• GLOFs are highly destructive due to high discharge with high sediment load
Vishnuprayag (400 MW), Alakananda River, 2013
Sediment
Cloud burst floods
• Cloud burst floods: greater than about 250 mm rainfall in 24 hours
• Nandargi and Dhar (2011) counted 712 unique 250+ mm events recorded from 1871 to 2007
• Cloud burst events occur throughout the Himalaya• The 2013 Uttarakhand disaster highlights the exposure
of hydropower to cloud burst events & GLOFs
Geopolitical challenges
• Hydropower resource location vis-à-vis energy demand• Development interests and financial constraints of different
supranational, national and sub-national stakeholders• Distribution of hydropower development expertise• Unresolved border disputes• Transboundary hydrological threats
Nov. 25, 2014: India and Nepal sign Arun III agreement; Sustainable hydropower development depends on international cooperation & energy/cost/information sharing
• Balancing upstream-downstream sociopolitical dichotomies• Assessing cumulative environmental impacts in hydropower system planning• Designing and enforcing local environmental and social impact mitigation measures that
support local sustainability• Accounting for hydroclimatic uncertainties and change, with both technical and
sociopolitical solutions• Ensuring that international cooperation in planning and management of social,
environmental, and economic systems related to hydropower supports sustainable development goals
Key development challenges
Source: www.theeconomist.com, Nov. 24, 2014
• Per capita energy demand is low but increasing due to increasing populations and rising per capita GDP
• Region faces energy shortages as-is• A large underutilized hydropower potential exists• Hydropower will be increasingly used to achieve “clean” energy growth
Technical threats
•Hydroclimatic uncertainty•Extreme hydrologic events
•Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)•Cloud burst floods•Land slide dam outburst floods
Environmental threats
• Ecosystem degradation from infrastructure & operations
• Cumulative environmental impacts• Interactive impacts with climate change• Weak laws, policies and environmental mitigation
practices
Social threats
• Degree of participatory development• Resettlement and rehabilitation policies• Potential insensitivity to cultural values• Equity between upstream & downstream communities• Degree of stakeholder cooperation• Geopolitical challenges
Economic threats
• Finance mechanism uncertainties• Energy economic uncertainties• Physical system degradation• Construction cost overruns• Unfulfilled local economic improvement
•Extreme geologic events•Seismic activity (earthquakes)•Land slides•Sediment load
Acknowledgments We gratefully acknowledge the Fulbright-Nehru Fellowship program, and the United States-India Educational Foundation for its administration and in-country support. We also thank the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee for hosting the lead author of this study.
Source: Nandargi and Dhar (2011)
Civil protests – A key challenge is the equitable distribution of energy and resources between local mountain communities and downstream energy beneficiaries, as well as respect of local values.
www.xe.comFinancial uncertainties
• Natural gas prices; higher gas prices = higher hydropower value
• Exchange rates; loans are often in USD, sales in local currency
Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee246414
1. University of Massachusetts Amherst, 2. Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee
Can hydropower contribute to “sustainable development”?What factors should we consider when assessing hydropower sustainability?
Motivating questions “Sustainable development” encompasses all development activity, so both types of threats affect sustainability of hydropower systems.
Sustainable development implies dynamic decision-making and dynamic values: sustainable development is a moving target
Economy
Society
Environment
Environment
EconomySociety
Intersecting domains Nested domains
This effort identified dominant threats to economic, social, and environmental sustainability of hydropower development in the southern Himalaya, as well as technical sustainability.
Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It is traditionally organized by economic, social, and environmental sustainability.
Against 444 MW Vishungad Pipalkoti, Alaknanda River Against Dam construction on the Pindari River Against the 2,000 MW Lower Subansiri projectSource: Peasant AutonomySource: UnknownSource: Unknown
Source: Matu Jan Sangathan
References For references and a copy of this poster, please see:https://thirdpolewater.wordpress.com/2017/05/21/ewri-2017-poster/
Email: [email protected]
