AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

December 20, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. ISIS increased the tempo of high-casualty explosive attacks targeting security forces in Aden, Yemen.

2. Libya’s most powerful military factions may be pursuing a negotiated settlement, but renewed conflict remains possible.

3. A Boko Haram faction affiliated with ISIS may control territory in northeastern Nigeria.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda affiliates are using the fall of Aleppo as a call to arms. The Afghan Taliban called the Syrian Civil War “a great divine test” and urged Muslims to act to prevent civilians’ suffering. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) urged Muslims worldwide to join jihad in response to the Aleppo tragedy. The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), a Libyan Islamist coalition that includes al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, described the siege of Aleppo as a “war against God and the Prophet” and called on Muslims to join jihad.

Outlook: Al Qaeda affiliates and associated groups will continue to train recruits for al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesLashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) is using the unrest in Kashmir & Jammu Province as cover to carry out attacks. LeT attacked an Indian military convoy, killing three soldiers and wounding several others, near Pampore on December 17.

Outlook: Pakistan-based militant groups will continue to attack Indian military targets in the Kashmir region.

SecurityPolitical and military tensions remained high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Indian forces conducted cross-border shelling that struck a Pakistani school bus on December 17, killing one student and wounding eight others. The Kashmir crisis is harming Indian-Pakistani relations in other spheres, especially water-sharing. Pakistan stated that it will refuse any changes to the Indus Waters Treaty following Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s threat to block the flow of water from India to Pakistan.

Outlook: The level of hostilities along the Line of Control will remain steady.

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GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

PoliticalPresident Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government continues to pursue a military solution despite pressure to negotiate. The Hadi government refused to agree to a mechanism for a political process without securing the disarmament of the al Houthi-Saleh faction and other demands. This refusal follows a joint communique from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his counterparts from the UK, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman in support of a UN framework proposed in October 2016. The al Houthi-Saleh faction also endorsed the framework, which sequences the signing of an agreement before other elements of the peace process, including disarmament.

Outlook: The Hadi government will not alter its negotiating position without significant pressure from the Saudi-led coalition.

SecurityHadi government and allied forces advanced shaping operations in northern and central Yemen. Hadi government forces attacked al Houthi-Saleh forces along the southwestern Taiz-Lahij border as part of an operation to seize territory surrounding the Bab al Mandeb Strait. Hadi government forces continued offensives in Hajjah, Sa’ada, and al Jawf governorates in northern Yemen in an effort to seize major roadways. These roadways are required to maintain supply lines for an offensive on Yemen’s capital city, Sana’a.

Outlook: Hadi government forces will not advance significantly beyond current frontlines due to resource constraints and a limited support base.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenISIS increased its operational tempo in Aden in an effort to degrade security forces and advance its narrative of success. ISIS Wilayat Aden-Abyan detonated SVESTs on December 10 and December 18 at a military base in Aden, killing more than 50 people each time. AQAP condemned the December 10 attack, which killed members of an AQAP-allied tribe.

Outlook: ISIS may sustain an elevated operational tempo of at least two SVEST attacks per month.

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 14 DEC: Hadi government forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Baqim, northern Sa’ada.2) 15 DEC: AQAP fighters repelled al Houthi-Saleh forces in Rada’a district, western al Bayda.3) 16 DEC: Security forces dismantled IEDs on the Belhaf oil pipeline, Shabwah. 4) 18 DEC: An ISIS suicide bomber attacked al Sawlaban base in Aden.5) 19 DEC: Hadi government forces repelled an al Houthi-Saleh attack in northern Taiz city.

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PoliticalRepeated accusations of fraud and an increasingly competitive field of presidential candidates signal rising uncertainty in the Somali electoral process. Somali officials delayed Somaliland Lower House elections in Mogadishu on December 17 after an electoral dispute. Two popular former prime ministers, Ali Mohamed Gedi and Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, confirmed that they will run for president. A competitive field of candidates and repeated delays increase the likelihood of a protracted political crisis.

Outlook: A political crisis would reinforce al Shabaab’s anti-government narrative and may increase recruitment.

Security African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces’ lack of discipline increases the risk of mission failure. AMISOM forces killed civilians in Lower Shabelle region on multiple occasions this week. Al Shabaab militants retaliated against civilians in response to a suspected al Shabaab improvised explosive device (IED) attack near Marka town on December 18. AMISOM forces also killed six civilians in Qoryooley on December 17 when troops opened fire on a van they incorrectly assessed to be an explosive device.

Outlook: Popular support for the AMISOM will decrease, hampering its ability to work with Somalis to combat al Shabaab.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab is conducting a campaign to seize small towns within striking distance of population centers near Mogadishu. Al Shabaab militants temporarily seized Mahaday town, located near the strategically important Jowhar town, on December 16. Al Shabaab also maintained pressure on Qoryooley, located near Marka port, where it attacked Somali National Army (SNA) forces on December 12 and 14. Al Shabaab would likely seek to capture Jowhar or Marka in preparation for a campaign against Mogadishu.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will wait to capture population centers like Jowhar or Marka until the AMISOM coalition withdraws or weakens.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 14 DEC: Al Shabaab attacked a SNA base near Qoryooley, Lower Shabelle region.2) 15 DEC: Al Shabaab detonated a SVBIED at a restaurant in Mogadishu. 3) 15 DEC: Kenyan forces claimed to kill four al Shabaab militants in Hulugho, Garissa County. 4) 16 DEC: Al Shabaab seized Mahaday, Middle Shabelle region. 5) 19 DEC: Puntland forces attacked ISIS-linked forces in Bir Ladhidh, Bari region.

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PoliticalLibya’s most powerful military factions may be seeking a political settlement. Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar met with high-level officials in Algeria, which has joined neighboring states and the African Union to press for a political solution to the Libyan crisis. Egypt, which supports the LNA, led talks that proposed several amendments to the year-old Libyan Political Agreement. The Misratan Military Council, the strongest anti-Haftar bloc, temporarily conceded control of key oil sites to the LNA and took steps to de-escalate tensions in Tripoli. Key issues, including Haftar’s role in a future government and the security of Tripoli, remain in question.

Outlook: Talks will likely become deadlocked as Libyan powerbrokers and regional states pursue mutually exclusive goals.

SecurityRival factions are angling for control over Sirte city following its liberation from ISIS. LNA forces have deployed eastward and are operating a checkpoint on the coastal road in eastern Sirte district, re-establishing a frontline position from the 2014 civil war. Misratan forces allied with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) currently control the city. GNA-allied Misratan forces are supporting a military governor for Sirte, while the LNA recognizes a civilian mayor.

Outlook: Likely encounters between LNA and Misratan forces, as well as local militias and Salafi groups pursuing independent objectives in the region, risk igniting conflict in central Libya.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaAn al Qaeda-linked coalition is consolidating its control over Derna city. The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna (MSCD), which includes al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia, has purged rival Salafi leaders and developed relationships with local leaders to alleviate an LNA blockade on the city. The MSCD demonstrates its ties to the al Qaeda network by issuing statements in line with al Qaeda messaging and reportedly allowing al Qaeda-affiliated militant leaders to operate in Derna.

Outlook: The MSCD will continue to operate freely in Derna while the LNA prioritizes the ongoing Benghazi campaign.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

01) 14 DEC: The LNA secured the road between Qanfouda and Bousnib, Benghazi.02) 16 DEC: Rival militias clashed over control of Hay al Akhwah, Tripoli.03) 18 DEC: ISIS Wilayat Barqa detonated a SVBIED targeting the LNA in Qanfouda, Benghazi.04) 18 DEC: The Misratan air force increased surveillance flights tracking ISIS militants near Wadi Souf al Jin. 05) 18 DEC: The LNA conducted patrols in Wadi al Ahmar.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebSenior AQIM leader and al Murabitoun emir Mokhtar Belmokhtar may have died from injuries caused by a French airstrike in Sebha, Libya on 15 NOV. His death remains unconfirmed. Belmokhtar played a key role in planning attacks, managing illicit revenue streams, and coordinating groups in the AQIM network.

The Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade, AQIM’s Tunisian affiliate, continued to conduct low-level attacks intended to protect its safe havens in western Tunisia. A landmine likely planted by Uqba ibn Nafa’a injured two Tunisian soldiers on Mount Samama in Kasserine Governorate on December 15.

Outlook: Belmokhtar’s death, if confirmed, may disrupt coordination between groups in AQIM’s network.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)Salafi-jihadi militant groups are using Mali as a support zone for attacks on the Burkinabe state. Militants attacked a military base in northern Burkina Faso near the Malian border on December 16, killing twelve soldiers. A separate group attacked a Malian army position in Mali’s Boura Sikasso region near the Burkinabe border on December 16. Malian President Ibrahim Keita authorized Burkinabe forces to pursue militants across the border into Malian territory.

The Boko Haram faction led by Abu Musab Barnawi, the governor of ISIS’s Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya (West Africa Province), may control territory in northeastern Nigeria. The media outlet of ISIS Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya released a photoset documenting members of the organization’s hisbah (religious police) enforcing shari’a law in an unspecified town in Lake Chad on December 16. The enforcement of shari’a is an indicator of territorial control.

Outlook: Salafi-jihadi militants will intensify attacks against Burkinabe military targets in the border region to prevent Burkinabe forces from threatening militant safe havens in Mali. ISIS Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya will attempt to expand into more towns in the Lake Chad region.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 15 DEC: A landmine likely planted by the Uqba ibn Nafa’a Brigade injured two soldiers on Mount Samama, Kasserine Governorate, Tunisia.2) 16 DEC: Unidentified gunmen assassinated an alleged HAMAS drone engineer outside his home in Sfax, Sfax Governorate, Tunisia.3) 19 DEC: Algerian security forces pursued an armed militant allegedly carrying a bomb in Annaba, Annaba Province, Algeria.

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1) 14 DEC: Boko Haram attacked a Nigerian military base near Kamuya village, Biu Town, Borno State, Nigeria. 2) 16 DEC: ISIS Wilayat Gharb Ifriqiyya enforced shari’a law in a village on the shore of Lake Chad.3) 16 DEC: Militants attacked a Malian army post in Boura, Sikasso Region, Mali.4) 16 DEC: Militants killed 12 Burkinabe soldiers in Nassoumbou, Soum Region, Burkina Faso.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569