AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT March 22, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Yemen’s warring factions continued efforts to secure gains on the ground despite Yemeni officials’ announcement of a ceasefire ahead of the next round of UN-led political negotiations.

2. Al Shabaab’s announcement of a new fighting unit bearing the name of its late Kenyan leader, Aboud Rogo, indicates the group’s sustained prioritization of its Kenyan operations.

3. The AQIM attack against the In Salah gas plant in central Algeria was probably part of AQIM’s effort to compete with ISIS’s growing influence in the Maghreb region.

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ASSESSMENT:

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al Qaeda NetworkAl Qaeda veteran leadership continues to appear inside of Syria. A recent video from al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra identified Ahmad Salama Mabruk as a senior member within the group. Mabruk, AKA Abu al Faraj al Masri, was a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri led until it merged with al Qaeda in June 2001. He is operating alongside a cadre of veteran al Qaeda leaders in Syria, a theater that is currently the main effort for the al Qaeda network. Veteran al Qaeda leadership has also recently been revealed in Yemen, including a former Guantanamo detainee who appeared in a December 2015 al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula video.

Outlook: Al Qaeda-linked groups will continue to conduct their local and regional military campaigns, building strength and local resilience.

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesLashkar-e-Islam (LeI) militants bombed a bus carrying Pakistani government employees, killing 15 and injuring 25 others in Peshawar. The group is closely affiliated with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Separately, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent(AQIS) released the first episode in its newest media series , “Razm.” The video showed the killing of a Pakistani police officer in September 2015.

Outlook: Pakistani security forces will sustain increased ground and air operations in the FATA, as it enters the final phase of Operation Zarb-e-Azb. Separately, the Pakistani security forces will look towards increased operations in urban areas, in an effort to rid the cities of extremism.

AL QAEDA

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalYemeni officials reported that both sides agreed to a ceasefire to accompany UN-led political negotiations in early April after UN Special Envoy to Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed met with Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his government in Riyadh and al Houthi officials in Sana’a. The announcement followed the Saudi-led coalition’s declaration that major combat operations in Yemen were nearing an end and that the objective was to build a strong government supported by military and security forces.

Outlook: Yemenis will turn out in large numbers to mark the one-year anniversary of the start of the coalition’s air campaign in Yemen. Additionally, Yemeni factions will likely continue to message objectives for the forthcoming UN-led talks.

SecurityTaiz city remains contested. Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched a counter-attack in western Taiz city, but coalition-backed forces were able to hold their positions. Pro-Hadi Yemeni army brigades advanced against al Houthi-Saleh positions near the Ma’rib-Shabwah border. The unofficial border ceasefire remains limited to ground operations as intermittent al Houthi rocket attacks into southern Saudi Arabia and coalition airstrikes in northern Yemen continue.

Outlook: Al Houthi-Saleh forces and coalition-backed forces will most likely reinforce positions in Taiz governorate.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP demonstrated the extent of its control along Hadramawt’s eastern coastline when it executed individuals for practicing witchcraft and prostitution in Ghayl Ba Wazir and al Shihr. There has been little resistance to AQAP’s presence in these areas. Separately, AQAP’s insurgent arm, Ansar al Sharia, continues to operate alongside local militias fighting against al Houthi-Saleh forces in Taiz, Ibb, and al Bayda.

Outlook: AQAP will probably continue to realize its vision of shari’a-based governance in areas under its control.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: YEMENGULF OF

ADEN

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1) 15 MAR: Reported coalition airstrikes hit a market in Mustaba, Hajjah.2) 18-21 MAR: Coalition-backed forces advanced in Ma’rib and Shabwah.3) 16 MAR: Reported coalition airstrikes hit AQAP vehicle in Abyan.4) 16, 18 MAR: Al Houthi-Saleh forces launched rockets into Saudi Arabia.5) 17, 20 MAR: AQAP executed individuals in Ghayl Ba Wazir and al Shihr, Hadramawt.

ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalSomali Prime Minister Omar Sharmarke appointed former foreign minister Abdirahman Duale Beyle, who is U.S.-educated and has a history of diplomatic cooperation with international partners, as the new Somali Ambassador to the United Nations.

Outlook: The Somali Federal Government will continue to expand international relations with nations and organizations.

SecurityThe Puntland Defense Forces (PDF) claimed to defeat an al Shabaab cell in the Suuj Valley area of Puntland, killing at least 70 militants and capturing 30 others. The militants landed at Gara’ad in the Mudug region on March 14 and moved north toward Suuj before being surrounded by PDF forces on March 19 and 20. The goal of al Shabaab’s advance along the Puntland coastline is still unknown, although it is possible that the group is trying to establish itself in areas outside of the African Union Mission in Somalia’s (AMISOM) area of operations.

Outlook: Al Shabaab may attempt to develop footholds in territory outside of AMISOM’s mandate.

Al ShabaabThe announcement of the Aboud Rogo Brigade, named for the late Kenyan al Shabaab leader, indicates al Shabaab’s sustained prioritization of its Kenyan operations. It is likely that this group will operate in a fashion similar to the Abu Zubayr Brigade in Somalia, which has conducted the campaign of mass-casualty attacks against AMISOM bases and was probably the al Shabaab force that overran a Somali National Army (SNA) outpost in Laanta Buuro near Mogadishu on March 20.An alleged Somali Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) member in Yemen claimed that a number of villages in northern Somalia declared support for ISIS. If confirmed, this claim signals a growing ISIS presence in northern Somalia.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will most likely target the Kenyan military logistics line that supports operations in Somalia as well as smaller Kenyan military outposts in Kenya with its new fighting force.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

HORN OF AFRICA

GULF OF ADEN

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1) 15-16 MAR: Al Shabaab kidnapped two aid workers near Siidamo, Gedo region.2) 16-20 MAR: PDF forces killed 70 al Shabaab militants and captured 30 near Suuj Valley, Nugaal region, Puntland.3) 20 MAR: Al Shabaab raided an SNA outpost in Laanta Buuro, Lower Shabelle region.4) 16 MAR: Al Shabaab ambushed a KDF convoy near Afmadow, Lower Jubba region.

ASSESSMENT:

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PoliticalThe divisive Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), which is supported by the U.S. and European partners, may attempt to move to Libya’s capital, Tripoli, within the week. Tripoli is currently the seat of the Islamist-dominated General National Congress (GNC) and a large number of local militias. The GNA announcement sparked clashes between militias over support for the unity government, and several military and political leaders have vowed to oppose the GNA’s move to Tripoli.

Outlook: Political spoilers and anti-GNA militias will hinder the implementation and effectiveness of the GNA.

SecurityLibyan National Army (LNA) forces have cleared Islamist militants, including ISIS, Ansar al Sharia, and affiliated groups, from the majority of Benghazi city. However, the fight is now protracting and pockets of resistance remain in al Sabri and al Hawari districts, as well as on the city’s western periphery. Libya Dawn and Misratan forces continued intermittent airstrikes on ISIS targets in Sirte.

Outlook: The LNA will struggle to control and retain Benghazi because of entrenched Salafi-jihadi networks that will facilitate retaliatory attacks. Libya Dawn strikes may provoke ISIS’s retaliation west of Sirte.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS is attempting to secure ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in southwestern Libya. ISIS convoys have mobilized south from Sirte in an apparent effort to skirt Libya Dawn-Misratan positions near Abugrein. Furthermore, the recent resurgence of ISIS Wilayat Fezzan raises the possibility that ISIS will attempt to exploit key smuggling routes in southwestern Libya and may even seek refuge in the region, should it face pressure in Sirte. Meanwhile, ISIS forces mobilized to Ben Jawad, likely in preparation for a renewed campaign on the al Sidra and Ras Lanuf oil terminals, and continued to attack into Derna city.

Outlook: ISIS will expand its presence in southwestern Libya and increase its cross-border threat to Tunisia and Algeria.

LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: LIBYAWEST

AFRICA

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1) 16 MAR: Militants, rumored to be ISIS, attacked a prison in Zliten and freed prisoners.2) 15-21 MAR: LNA forces continued clearing operations in Benghazi.3) 17 MAR: Possible foreign aircraft bombed an ISIS convoy west of Sirte.4) 17 MAR: The Mujahideen Shura Council of Derna repelled an ISIS offensive in Derna.5) 21 MAR: Maradan forces captured two ISIS supply vehicles.

ASSESSMENT:

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)AQIM continued its campaign against Western presence in the region by launching an attack on the In Salah gas plant in Krechba, central Algeria. This attack was probably part of AQIM’s effort to compete with ISIS’s growing influence in the Maghreb region. AQIM linked the attack to Mokhtar Belmokhtar’s January 2013 In Amenas hostage crisis, but the more recent attack appeared to be less sophisticated and likely lacked the same level of planning and execution.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue attacking and recruiting in the Sahel and Maghreb.

Uqba Ibn Nafa’a (Tunisia)Militants are coordinating on both sides of the Tunisian-Algerian border, as evidenced by clashes in the mountainous region that straddles western Tunisia and eastern Algeria. A statement by a reported AQIM leader in Algeria alleged that Tunisian and Algerian members of the AQIM-linked Uqba Ibn Nafa’a brigade pledged allegiance to ISIS. If confirmed, this pledge means that ISIS is leveraging AQIM’s existing networks in western Tunisia and may use cross-border collaboration to generate attacks. ISIS militants recently collaborated across the Tunisian-Libyan border to attack Ben Guerdane, Tunisia.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to develop a networked threat capable of attack in both Algeria and Tunisia.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun) AQIM-linked groups were likely responsible for attacks on Western targets and pro-Western security forces in the Sahel region. Gunmen conducted a failed attack on the headquarters of the European Union Training Mission in Bamako, Mali. Gunmen also targeted a police post in Dolbel, southwestern Niger, likely due to the government’s collaboration with French forces. AQIM-linked Ansar al Din launched mortars at a UN base in Tessalit, Kidal region.

Outlook: AQIM and its affiliates will continue to target hotels in the region and may attempt more ambitious attacks in an effort to inflict greater costs for Western presence in the region.

MAGHREB AND SAHEL

WEST AFRICA

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY: MAGHREBWEST

AFRICA

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1) 18 MAR: AQIM militants attacked the In Salah gas plant in Krechba, Algeria.2) 19 MAR: Tunisian security forces clashed with militants in Jebel Samama.3) 19-21 MAR: Tunisian forces clashed with militants during continued clearing operations in Ben Guerdane.4) 21 MAR: Algerian forces killed six suspected militants and discovered a large weapons cache in El Oued.

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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SAHELWEST AFRICA

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1) 16 MAR: Gunmen attacked a Nigerien police post in Dolbel.2) 20 MAR: Ansar al Din launched mortars at a UN camp in Tessalit, Kidal region. 3) 20 MAR: Ivorian security forces arrested four suspected accomplices of the Grand Bassam attackers in Abidjan.4) 21 MAR: Gunmen attacked the headquarters of the European Union Training Mission in Bamako, Mali.

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ACRONYMSAfrican Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569