201505 gdn-the-big-picture-on-nano

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The Big Picture

on nano

Head Consultant | management & technology

GDN consulting firm

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content

mantra, content, credits & references s03~04

1. 2015 global risks landscape & root causes s06~12

The Age of smartness

3. current responses (pervasive smartness) s14~19

The Age of wellness (the Big Picture on nano)

4. further responses (4 nanotechnology pillars)

a) BCI (brain computer interface) s22

b) 4D (smart materials) s23~24

c) nanotheranostics s25~37

d) neuromorphic IT s38~39

5. proposing a reverse Moore’s law s40~41

6. predicting the next internet (web 4.0) s42~45

7. anticipating emerging challenges s47~50

The Age of happiness

8. take-away s53~56

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Major risks

Responses

Mantra

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content, credits & references

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2015 global risks landscape

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2015 Global Risks Map

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2015 Global Risks Correlation Map

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Human population

Biosphere

regeneration

Human

consumption

~ 1.3 times

what

the planet

can sustain

Net loss

28%

Steadily growing since mid 80’s

Source: Simms A., NEF (New Economics Foundation), London

Earth Profit & Loss 2014 based on Averaged human lifestyle

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90% due to human

errors

failure of urban planning (10m lives each year)

29b barrels fuel wasted per year **

450b hours smoked in traffic equivalent to:

0.76 million lives each year ***

* source: WHO 2015 report on worldwide road death toll ** 88% of worldwide fuel consumption | 33b per year

*** based on 67.2 years or 588k hours worldwide average life expectancy

**** source: 2013 assessment by WHO’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC)

1.24 million lives each year * #1 cause of death for aged 15-29 years*

20~50 millions injured*

Worldwide road death toll

Worldwide road congestion Air pollution (in & outdoors)

8 millions lives each year ****

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failure of urban planning (10m lives each year) compared to largest wholly anthropogenic catastrophes

What When Duration Ʃ death toll high est. per year

World War I 1914-18 4 65m 16m

World War II 1939-45 6 85m 14m

Taiping Rebellion 1851-64 13 100m 8m

Holodomor 1932-33 1 8m 8m

Bangladesh genocide 1971 1 3m 3m

What When Duration Ʃ death toll high est. per year

Great Chinese Famine 1958-62 4 55m 14m

Russian Famine 1921-22 2 10m 5m

Northern Chinese Famine 1876-79 3 13m 4m

China Floods 1931 1 3m 3m

Great Indian Famine 1876-78 2 6m 3m

compared to largest partially anthropogenic catastrophes

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Potential

reforestation

Food growing

Habitable

zones

Inhabitable

deserts

Inhabitable floods, droughts

extreme weather

Land lost to

rising waters (2m assumption)

a map of climate change risks

The World 4ºC warmer Sources:

2015 Climate Action Tracker

New Scientist ,Climate Change Report, 2009

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ageing population & major fiscal imbalance risks Worker (15 to 64) to Retiree (64+) dependency ratios

Source: UN, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2014

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disconnected physical, financial & geopolitical worlds

ETR (Ecological tax reform)??

EIA (Environmental impact assessment)??

Inter-sector policies, new institutions, legal reform?? IM (Industrial metabolism) ??

VA (Voluntary agreement) ??

EE (Ecological economics) ??

Climate change

Financial crises

Social instabilities

Major fiscal imbalances

Ineffective multi-polar geopolitics

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The Age of smartness

smart economics

smart machines

smart cities

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share economy + co-creation + 3D manufacturing

Disruptive global digital neo-economics, barter resurgence & dematerialization

Share economy (Internet, Uber, Airbnb) unused value is wasted value

Crowd-sourcing + co-creation + 3D production value chain

The latest Maslow’s

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share economy + co-creation + 3D manufacturing

Co-creation + 3D manufacturing Communities of Passion (psychographics vs demographics)

3D printing of medicines (Prof. Lee Cronin, Uni of Glasgow)

3D printing of live tissues & organs (bio-printing)

Local Motors (Rally Fighter) | General Motors (Chevy Volt) | Fisker Automotive (Karma) | Tesla (Roadster)

co-creation + 3D

the automotive

industry example

Source: 2015, CEO Jay Rogers, Local Motors

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rise of the machines The IoT (Internet of Things) or

IoE (Internet of Everything) IPv4 (4.3b addresses) IPv6 (3% in 2014)

Big Data Analytics Deep domain expertise & learning algorithms

merging genomics & informatics

6, 7 & 8th level normalization

unstructured data

Mobile connecting

technology

smart information

smart machines

smart cities

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evolving from net emitters to

CO2-capture mega-systems

smart cities | the big picture

95% world cities located in

climate change risks areas

= both problem & solution

The 3rd demographic

revolution in 2008

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smart cities | extramuros

2015 AeroFarms case in New Jersey US*:

• 95% water needs reduction

• 75 times more productive

• biosphere size increase

• carbon-capture system

• 0-pesticide & 0-soil

• 16 days cycle

integrated vertical urban

farming (edible + bio-fuels)

new mobility

paradigm shift

average private cars

unused 92% of the

time **

existing infrastructure

3 times more efficient

with driverless ***

* Source: 2015 AeroFarms estimates

** Source: 2014 Stanford Energy Institute research

*** Source: 2011 Google Driverless Car Project, Sebastian Thrun

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smart cities | intramuros

autonomous, automated, alive,

sustainable, re-configurable

modular buildings

smart information

from GUI* to NUI**

& M2M*** (web 3.0)

* Graphical User Interface ** Natural User Interface *** Machine-To-Machine

India (31% urbanization) 2015 budget 70.2b INR**** to build 100 new smart cities

**** 1.2b US$

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The Age of wellness non-silicon industries

+ nano-technologies

to drive web 4.0

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preamble the nano scale

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BCI (Brain Computer Interface)

video overview

Click here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRt8QCx3BCo

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4D printing (self assembly)

Skylar Tibbits | MIT

4D = 3D + 1D (time / transformation)

Self-Assembly = process

by which disordered parts

build an ordered structure

only via local interaction

Programmable matter =

material that can change

form or behave in a

programmable fashion

smart material (robot without robots)

Robots

Click here

https://youtu.be/a1J7aMJkfcI

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4D printing applications

Self-repairing active pipes (no mechanical pumps)

Self-transforming reconfigurable buildings

Other building / Construction applications

Aviation

Adaptive, supporting & assistive

textile, apparel & footwear

Self-assembling products from 2D to 3D

Lower-engineered adaptive furniture

Self-adaptive packaging

Automotive

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nanotheranostics

nanotheranostics = nano + therapies + diagnostics

nanomedicine

nanodrug delivery

nano regeneration

nanotheranostics

Related disciplines, concepts & terminology

• zero-incision or non-invasive surgery

• precision or personalized medicine

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nanodrug basic building block metaphor

Bio-markers

Container/s

Cargo/s (inside the container/s)

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nanotheranostics vs conventional cancer treatment

In vivo

via nanotheranostics

Ex vivo (In vitro) interrogation

+ chemotherapy

Detection entire circulation interrogation sample-based delayed interrogation

vs

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In vivo



+ chemotherapy

Detection entire circulation interrogation sample-based interrogation

Progression dynamic monitoring -

X vs


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In vivo



+ chemotherapy



Therapy

narrow target & destruction upon

recognition of pathogenic cells +

real-time response monitoring

broad range & mass destruction

with collateral damages to healthy

cells + asynchronous monitoring

vs


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In vivo



+ chemotherapy



Therapy

narrow target & destruction upon

recognition of pathogenic cells +

real-time response monitoring

broad range & mass destruction

with collateral damages to healthy

cells + asynchronous monitoring

vs

vs


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advanced nanotheranostics via swarm of nanobots

From rudimentary multiplexing nanodrugs to smarter bio-computing ones

Versatile built-in computing/robotics using DNA origami nanobots

More advanced computing based on swarms of nanobots

• Hand shakes

• Quorum sensing

• Swarm computing

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nanobots

Ido Bachelet, Shawn Douglas, Daniel Levner & the research team

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nanobots swarms computing

≈ Commodore 64

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wifibots

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First Human trials

to start in 2015

nanobots zero-incision or non-invasive surgery

or

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reinventing Big Pharma business model

or

“Big Pharma spends trillions of dollars

attempting to build ‘sophisticated guns’

(drugs) that shoot only ‘bad people’

(pathogens). This is difficult and indeed

fails most of the time. We already have

enough guns (both used & unused drugs):

what we need is to teach the soldier

(nanodrug platform) how to use them”

2014, Ido Bachelet

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and deliver drug/s directly to the pathogenic site and responsively produce custom drugs

use DNA as bricks to build nano-machines Let RNA/DNA be the nano-machine

from DNA origami techniques to RNA/DNA 3&4D printing

next stage with advanced nanotheranostics the new metaphors

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brain research & neuromorphic computing conventional IT | a very brief history

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfIN6jcmfuI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCql2DgW5sE

“It is comparatively easy to make computers exhibit adult

level performance on intelligence tests or when playing

checkers, and yet very difficult or impossible to give them the

skills of a 1-year old when it comes to perception & mobility”

1980 | Hans Moravec | Carnegie Mellon University | Robotics & Artificial Intelligence

George Boole

1815 – 1864 Charles Babbage

1791 – 1871

Alan Turing

1912 – 1954 John Von Neumann

1903 – 1957

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brain research & neuromorphic computing advent of non-Von Neumann machines

Qualcomm Zeroth NPU

Neural Processor Unit

* 86b neurons + 100t synapses in a Human brain

IBM TrueNorth

1m neurons + 256m synapses*

Artificial Intelligence

Deep Learning algorithms

Yann LeCun Geoff Hinton

€ 1.2 billion over 10 years (2013 – 2023)

US$ 3 billions over 10 years (2013 – 2023)

Both projects triggered by

too lengthy delays in

solving brain disorders and

degenerative conditions via

cognitive & neuroscience

41 Gordon E. Moore

Moore’s Law

1965 1990 2015 2020 2050 2080 …

Macro

Nano

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Moore’s Law

1965 1990 2015 2020 2050 2080 …

Macro

Nano

4D

neuromorphic

biocomputing

where it all collides reverse

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predicting the next smart personal gizmo

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specifying the next (easy-to-swallow) gizmo

1. Rewrite your cells internal clock • cell regeneration beyond 40 subdivision cycle

• prolong existence to 150, 200, 300 years or

• … until you get bored to (literally ;-) death

2. Your 24/7 personal bodyguard • protect dynamically against all diseases

• RNA + DNA-tailored nanotheranostics

• universal built-in nanofactory

3. Instant knowledge access • DNA-based knowledge storage

• bio-neuromorphic processes

• new B2C Brain-2-Cloud

4. Tele-kinetic capabilities • brain-control 4D Wi-Fi devices

5. Telepathic powers • subvocalized communications

• new B2B Brain-2-Brain

• web 4.0 aka BrainNet

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anticipating emerging challenges

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bio-hacking

Erwin Schrödinger Craig Venter

1944 First DNA model proposal

“What is Life?” Erwin Schrödinger

2000 Genome mapping completed

2010 First synthetic life created

“Life is a DNA software

system and I created it” Craig Venter

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the smarter-than-human AI* conundrum

“The core problem is one of aligning AI goals with human goals.

If smarter-than-human AI’s are built with goal specifications that

subtly differ from what their human inventors intended, it is

unclear that it will be possible to stop those AI’s from using all

available resources to pursue those goals, any more than

chimpanzees can stop humans from doing what they want ” Stuart Russel Professor of Computer Science

Smith-Zadeh Professor in Engineering

University of California, Berkeley

* AI = Artificial Intelligence

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Societal, ethical & economic impact of technology an example | AI* learning machines taking over human jobs

47% of jobs to be automated Source: 2014 Carl Benedikt Frey & Michael A. Osborne | Oxford University

* AI = Artificial Intelligence

WHAT WHY

WHERE WHEN

Source: USA Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rebuilding

Eden

all Hell breaks

loose

or…

AI: the new taxable slave?

It has already started

Blue countries

most impacted

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1. Inconsistencies example: self-flying objects 2. Space cross-border harmonization?

3. Speed multi-stage adaptive regulations to

manage uncertain future of emerging technologies

4. Ownership which regulatory body should take

initiative with cross-disciplinary emerging technology?

5. Regulative vacuum religious powers, action

groups, future generations, industries self-regulations

6. Social, ethical & economic impact is

technology a human right, or market choice? Should

it be ruled by ill-informed and obsoleting economics?

law-making process inadequacies

“It took 80 years for the international

community to reach legal consensus

on chemical weapons ban”

“A driverless world would mean a

world without any road accidents:

this would prove catastrophic for

our car insurance business.” 2014

Warren Buffet (Geico Car insurance)

“Who is liable to the injured

when driverless cars choose

between pedestrian, cyclist

or passenger in any life-

threatening events?”

Meanwhile, over the past 20 minutes, the aggregate worldwide computing

power on the planet has generated and processed an amount of

information equivalent to that produced over the entire 20th Century.

hyper-regulated plane auto-pilot no regulations Where to regulate? UN-level? City-level? Or anywhere else in between?

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The Age of happiness

smart government democracy 3.0

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Engaged co-creative communities of passion

• From democratic representation to ‘Perestroika-n’ direct engagement

• Applying industry best practices to law-making government business

• Trust + Time + Well-being = the new currencies Democracy 3.0

• Co-creation Law-centric engagement platforms with citizens

• Efficiently create/maintain legislations (faster & cheaper)

co-creation +

communities of

passion

Source: 2015, CEO Jay Rogers, Local Motors

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New economics | New KPI’s

Happiness replacing money as measure of Success

Source: 2015 World Happiness Report, Happiness KPI by region, population age group and gender

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Preparing for a new type of Human Adolescence

The super-healthy, hyper-knowledgeable, brain-connected

(and most probably… bored to death :-) 300-years-young

57 [email protected]

Contact GDN for fully narrated

face-to-face briefings and

strategic road-maps tailored

to your industry, organization’s

board or executive team

201505 gdn-the-big-picture-on-nano

Technology

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