ISO-NE PUBLIC

N O V E M B E R 3 , 2 0 1 5 | E A G C O N F E R E N C E C A L L

Jessica Lau and Helve Saarela R E S O U R C E A D E Q U A C Y

Draft Results

2014 ISO-NE Electric Generator Air Emissions Report

ISO-NE PUBLIC 2

Outline

• Report Background

• 2014 System Conditions

• New England System Emissions – Total (kTons) – Rates (lb/MWh)

• New England Locational Marginal Unit (LMU) Marginal Emissions – Rates (lb/MWh) – Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh)

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Annual Electric Generator Air Emissions Report Background

• NOX, SO2 and CO2 Emissions – Total emissions by state (in kTons) and annual system emission rates – ISO New England generators, not including behind the meter generators

• Marginal Emission Rates – Locational Marginal Unit (LMU), LMP-based method of identifying marginal

units

• Data Sources – U.S. EPA Clean Air Markets Database (CAMD)

• 2014 included 47% of total power plant emissions for NOX, 83% for SO2, and 74% for CO2

– For units without U.S. EPA CAMD emissions • NEPOOL Generator Information System (GIS) monthly data • U.S. EPA’s latest eGRID database or historically assumed emission rates based on

unit type and age

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Overall Summary 2013 to 2014

• New England System – Less energy was generated – Mild summer demand – Demand was served by more imported energy and less coal-fired

resources

• System Emissions – NOX & CO2: Total (ktons) and rates (lb/MWh) have small changes (+5%) – SO2: ~30% in total (ktons) and rates (lb/MWh) which was primarily

driven by decrease in coal generation

• Marginal Emissions – NOX (~14%), SO2 (~19%), CO2 small change (+2%) – Primarily driven by additional oil-fired resources on the margin – Continued trend of higher winter marginal emission rates and lower

summer marginal emission rates

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2014 SYSTEM CONDITIONS

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2014 in Summary

• Net Energy for Load decreased 2% – 129,377 GWh in 2013 to 127,176 GWh in 2014

• System Generation decreased 3% – 112,040 GWh in 2013 to 108,357 GWh in 2014

• Net Flow Over External Ties increased 9% (importing) – 18,961 GWh in 2013 to 20,696 GWh in 2014

• Summer Peak Demand decreased 11% – 27,379 MW in 2013 to 24,443 GWh in 2014 – Weather normalized peak increased from 27,835 MW in 2013 to 27,970 MW in 2014

• Generation by Primary Fuel Types (from 2013 to 2014) – Coal-fired units decreased by 19% – Oil-fired units increased by 87% – Natural gas-fired units decreased by 8%

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2014 Monthly Generation by Fuel Type

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tota

l Gen

erat

ion

(GW

h)

Gene

ratio

n (%

MW

h)

Month

Other Renewables Wind Solar Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Coal Oil Total Generation (Right Axis)

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2010 – 2014 Generation by Fuel Types (MWh)

Based on Primary Fuel Type of generators from the 2014 CELT Report

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Gen

erat

ion

(mill

ion

MW

h)

20102011201220132014

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2010 – 2014 New England Coal and Oil Consumption vs. Generation

* Generation (GWh) is based on CELT Primary Fuel Type - Data is from EIA-923 Schedule 3A, located at http://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia923/

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Ge

nera

tion

(GW

h)

Mill

ions

of S

hort

Ton

s

Coal Consumption Coal Generation*

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Gene

ratio

n (G

Wh)

Thou

sand

s of

Bar

rels

Residual Oil Consumption Residual Oil Generation*

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2014

Sources of Energy

Wind

Other Renewables

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Coal

Nuclear

Oil

Natural Gas

37%

26% 34%

43%

16% 5%

9%

7%7%6%

5%

2%

2%

1%1%

10

Shift in New England’s Generator Fuel Mix 2005 to 2014

131,617 GWh 108,357 GWh

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2014 ISO NEW ENGLAND SYSTEM EMISSIONS

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2013 & 2014 System Emission and Emission Rates

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2013 Emission Rate (lb/MWh)

2014 Emission Rate (lb/MWh)

Emission Rate % Change

NOX 0.36 0.38 5.6

SO2 0.32 0.22 -31.3

CO2 730 726 -0.5

2013 Emissions (kTons)

2014 Emissions (kTons)

Total Emissions % Change

NOX 20.32 20.49 0.8

SO2 18.04 11.67 -35.3

CO2 40,901 39,318 -3.9

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2014 ISO-NE Annual System Emissions By State (kTons)

4.77

2.13

8.75

3.89

0.59 0.360

2

4

6

8

10

CT ME MA NH RI VT

NOX

1.751.39

5.65

2.81

0.04 0.030

2

4

6

CT ME MA NH RI VT

SO2

9,736

4,164

15,228

6,467 2,976

748 0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

CT ME MA NH RI VT

CO2

Ann

ual E

mis

sion

s of N

OX,

SO

2, C

O2

(kTo

ns)

NOX

SO2

CO2

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New England Summer Claimed Capability by State (MW) as of January 1, 2015

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

CT ME MA NH RI VT

Capc

acity

(MW

)

WindSolarHydroNuclearOther RenewablesOilNatural GasCoal

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2014 ISO-NE Average Monthly System Emission Rates (lb/MWh)

NOX SO2 CO2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

CO2

Emis

sion

Rat

e (lb

/MW

h)

NO

x an

d SO

2Em

issi

on R

ate

(lb/M

Wh)

Month

NOX

SO2

CO2

Useful to compare with Slide 6

SO2

CO2

NOX

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2005 – 2014 ISO-NE Annual System Emission (kTons)

16

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CO2

Syst

em Em

issi

on (k

Tons

)

NO

xan

d SO

2Sy

stem

Emis

sion

(kTo

ns) NOx SO2 CO2SO2 CO2 NOX

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2005 – 2014 ISO-NE Average Annual System Emission Rates (lb/MWh)

NOX SO2 CO2

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CO2

Syst

em E

mis

sion

Rat

e (lb

/MW

h)

NO

xan

d SO

2Sy

stem

Em

issi

on R

ate

(lb/M

Wh)

NOxSO2CO2SO2

CO2

NOX

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2014 ISO NEW ENGLAND MARGINAL EMISSIONS ANALYSIS Locational Marginal Unit (LMU)

• Percent Marginal by Fuel Type • Marginal Emission Rates • Marginal Heat Rate

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Marginal Emissions Analysis Overview

• Locational Marginal Units (LMUs) are identified by Locational Marginal Price (LMP) – Based on historical real-time generation dispatch records – Not a fuel-type based assumption: that all natural gas and

oil units are marginal

• Marginal emissions calculated for two scenarios: – All LMUs – Emitting LMUs

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Marginal Emissions Analysis Marginal Unit Scenarios

Marginal Emission Analysis results for 2009 (earliest year with available data) through 2014 have been calculated for the following scenarios:

1. All LMUs – Includes all Locational Marginal Units identified by the LMP – Reflects all hours in a calendar year and units that have and don’t have

associated air emissions

2. Emitting LMUs – Excludes all non-emitting units, such as pumped storage, hydro-electric

generation, external transactions and other renewables (such as wind, etc.) with no associated air emissions

– Reflects only hours in a calendar year when there are emitting units (has air emissions) marginal and excludes the impact of non-emitting units on the margin

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2014 Monthly Percent Marginal by Fuel Type All LMUs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% o

f Tim

e M

argi

nal

Month

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

External Transactions

Pumped Storage

Hydro

Other Renewables

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2014 Monthly Percent Marginal by Fuel Type Emitting LMUs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

% o

f Tim

e M

argi

nal

Month

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas

Other Renewables

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2014 Monthly Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh) All LMUs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

CO2

LMU

Mar

gina

l Em

issio

n Ra

te (l

b/M

Wh)

SO2

& N

O XLM

U M

argi

nal E

miss

ion

Rate

(lb/

MW

h)

Month

SO2 - All LMUs NOx - All LMUs CO2 - All LMUsCO2 - All LMUs NOX - All LMUs SO2 - All LMUs

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2014 Monthly Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh) Emitting LMUs

-100

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

CO2

LMU

Mar

gina

l Em

issio

n Ra

te (l

b/M

Wh)

SO2

& N

O XLM

U M

argi

nal E

miss

ion

Rate

(lb/

MW

h)

Month

SO2 - Emitting LMUs NOx - Emitting LMUs CO2 - Emitting LMUsCO2 - Emitting LMUs NOX – Emitting LMUs SO2 – Emitting LMUs

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2010 – 2014 Percent of Time Marginal by Fuel Type All LMUs

*The Other Renewables category (All LMUs) usually includes landfill gas, biomass gases, wind, solar, refuse (municipal solid waste, wood and wood-waste solids, tire-derived fuels) and fuel cell. Here, only wood/wood-waste solids unit(s) were identified to be marginal.

70

3

14

1

11

1 0%

72

2

10

1

14

1 0.06%

78

14

1

13

1 0.04%

68

28

5

15

2 0.10%

72

48

2

13

2 0.04%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Natural Gas Oil Coal Other Renewables

Pumped Storage

Other Hydro External Transaction

% o

f Tim

e M

argi

nal

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010: 0.04%2011: 0.06%2012: 0.04%2013: 0.10%2014: 0.04%

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2010 – 2014 Percent of Time Marginal by Fuel Type Emitting LMUs

*The Other Renewables category (Emitting LMUs) usually includes landfill gas, biomass gases, refuse (municipal solid waste, wood and wood-waste solids, tire-derived fuels) and fuel cell. Here, only wood/wood-waste solids unit(s) were identified to be marginal.

79

3

16

2

84

2

12

1

92

25

2

81

3

106

83

59

2

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Natural Gas Oil Coal Other Renewables

% o

f Tim

e M

argi

nal

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh) 2013 vs. 2014

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2013 Annual Rate (lb/MWh)

2014 Annual Rate (lb/MWh)

Percent Change 2013 to 2014 (%)

2013 Annual Rate (lb/MWh)

2014 Annual Rate (lb/MWh)

Percent Change 2013 to 2014 (%)

NOX 0.34 0.38 14.8 0.42 0.47 13.3

SO2 0.55 0.45 -18.5 0.69 0.55 -19.7

CO2 930 941 1.2 1,125 1,107 -1.6

LMU Marginal EmissionsAll LMUs Emitting LMUs

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500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CO2 L

MU

Mar

gina

l Em

issi

ons R

ate

(lb/M

Wh)

SO2 &

NO

X LM

U M

argi

nal E

mis

sion

s Rat

e (lb

/MW

h)

SO2-All Hours

SO2-On Peak

SO2-Off Peak

NOx-All Hours

NOx-Ozone On Peak

NOx-Ozone Off Peak

NOx-NonOzone On Peak

NOx-NonOzone Off Peak

CO2-All Hours

CO2-On Peak

CO2-Off Peak

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2009 – 2014 Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh) All LMUs

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600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CO2 L

MU

Mar

gina

l Em

issi

ons R

ate

(lb/M

Wh)

SO2 &

NO

X LM

U M

argi

nal E

mis

sion

s Rat

e (lb

/MW

h)

SO2-All Hours

SO2-On Peak

SO2-Off Peak

NOx-All Hours

NOx-Ozone On Peak

NOx-Ozone Off Peak

NOx-NonOzone On Peak

NOx-NonOzone Off Peak

CO2-All Hours

CO2-On Peak

CO2-Off Peak

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2009 – 2014 Marginal Emission Rates (lb/MWh) Emitting LMUs

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6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

LMU

Mar

gina

l Hea

t Rat

e (M

MBt

u/M

Wh)

All LMUs Emitting LMUs

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2009 – 2014 Marginal Heat Rates (MMBtu/MWh)

ISO-NE PUBLIC

Year All LMUs Emitting LMUs

2009 8.591 8.507

2010 7.414 8.385

2011 6.907 8.190

2012 6.678 7.870

2013 6.841 8.271

2014 7.692 9.034

LMU Marginal Heat Rate (MMBtu/MWh)

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Overall Summary 2013 to 2014

• New England System – Less energy was generated – Mild summer demand – Demand was served by more imported energy and less coal-fired

resources

• System Emissions – NOX & CO2: Total (ktons) and rates (lb/MWh) have small changes (+5%) – SO2: ~30% in total (ktons) and rates (lb/MWh) which was primarily

driven by decrease in coal generation

• Marginal Emissions – NOX (~14%), SO2 (~19%), CO2 small change (+2%) – Primarily driven by additional oil-fired resources on the margin – Continued trend of higher winter marginal emission rates and lower

summer marginal emission rates

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Next Steps

• Review stakeholder comments on presentation and draft report

• ISO-NE will send the draft report link to the EAG – 30-day comment period

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