20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_winter_wind

Climate Forecasting Unit

WINTERSeasonal Forecasts for

Global Wind Energy Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert


Fig. W1.4.1: Winter 10m wind resource (speed, m/s) availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)

m/s

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Wind energy potential: Where is it the windiest?

Darker red regions of this map show where global 10m wind resource (speed, m/s) is highest in winter, and lighter yellow regions where it is lowest. N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.

* Reanalysis information comes from an objective combination of observations and numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, to generate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.

WINTER Wind Forecasts(December + January + February)


Fig. W1.4.2: Winter 10m wind resource inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)

m/s

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Wind energy volatility: Where does the wind vary the greatest?

Darker red regions of this map show where global 10m wind resource varies the most from one year to the next in winter, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.

N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.



Europe

Winter 10m wind resource availability Winter 10m wind resource inter-annual variabilitym/s

Areas of interest: Patagonia/

VenezuelaN.W. Sahara/ Kenya

W.China/Mongolia/N.E.W.Russia

C.Australia

S.America Africa Asia Australia

N.E.Canada/S.Greenland

N.America

UK/Baltic Sea

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Where is wind resource potential and variability (volatility) highest?

By comparing both the winter 10m global wind resource availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen that there are several key areas (listed above) where wind resource is both abundant and highly variable. These regions are most vulnerable to wind resource variability over climate timescales, and are therefore of greatest interest for seasonal forecasting in winter.



Fig. W2.4.1: Winter 10m wind resource ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

win

d sp

eed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment1St validation of the climate forecast system:

Can the wind forecast mean tell us about the wind resource variability at a specific time?

The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global wind resource variability in winter 1 month ahead, is partially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a winter wind forecast, made every year since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variability over time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology



Fig. W2.4.1: Winter 10m wind resource ensemble mean correlation

(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment1St validation of the climate forecast system:

Can the wind forecast mean tell us about the wind resource variability at a specific time?

Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in winter seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology



Fig. W2.4.2: Winter 10m wind resource CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

win

d sp

eed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment2nd validation of the climate forecast system:

The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global wind resource variability in winter 1 month ahead, is fully shown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in the previous map) of a winter wind forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same magnitude of variability over time, the skill is positive (example 2).

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast distribution tell us about the magnitude of the wind resource variability, and its uncertainty at a specific time?


Fig. W2.4.2: Winter 10m wind resource CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment2nd validation of the climate forecast system:

Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in winter seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast distribution tell us about the magnitude of the wind resource variability, and its uncertainty at a specific time?


EuropeAreas of interest:

N-W.Coast/ N-E.CoastN.Chile

Indonesia/Philippines/Vietnam/S.Korea/China Sea

W. Australia/ Pacific Isles

S.America Africa

Asia

AustraliaCaribbean/S.C.USAN.W.Canada

N.AmericaN.UK/North Sea/ N.Mainland

Winter 10m wind resource variability magnitude, and its uncertainty forecast skill

Winter 10m wind resource variability forecast skill

Wind resource variability

forecast skill only

Wind resource magnitude and its uncertainty forecast skill

Kenya/N.E.Somalia/N.E. Libya

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment

Where is wind forecast skill highest?

By comparing both the winter 10m global wind resource forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there are several key areas (listed above) where wind resource forecasts are skilful in assessing its variability, magnitude and uncertainty. These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational winter wind forecasts, and are therefore of greatest interest to seasonal wind forecasting in winter.



Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill AssessmentMagnitude and uncertainty forecast skillVariability forecast skill

m/sm/sm/s

SPRING Wind Forecasts

These four maps compare the seasonal winter 10m wind resource global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside the winter 10m global wind resource availability and inter-annual variability maps (top). It can be seen that there are several key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in assessing its variability, magnitude and uncertainty, and the wind resource is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where winter seasonal wind forecasts have the greatest potential for operational use.

Areas of Interest:(Forecast skill)

Areas of Interest: (Resources)

Where is wind resource potential and volatility highest?

Wind resource inter-annual variability Wind resource availabilityStage A: Wind Resource Assessment

Variability forecast skillWhere is wind forecast skill highest?


Europe

Patagonia/ Venezuela

N.W. Sahara/ Kenya

W.China/Mongolia/N.E.W.Russia

C.Australia

S.America Africa Asia Australia

N.E.Canada/S.Greenland

N.America

UK/Baltic Sea

EuropeN-W.Coast/ N-E.CoastN.Chile

Indonesia/Philippines/Vietnam/S.Korea/China Sea

W.Australia/ Pacific Isles

S.America AfricaAsia

AustraliaCaribbean/S.C.USAN.W.Canada

N.America

N.UK/North Sea/ N.Mainland

Kenya/N.E.Somalia/N.E. Libya


%

Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)

Fig. W3.4.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) winter 2011,10m wind resource most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)

Stage C: Operational Wind Forecast

This operational wind forecast shows the probability of global 10m wind resource to be higher (red), lower (blue) or normal (white) over the forthcoming winter season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years. As the forecast season is winter 2011, this is an example of wind forecast information that could have been available for use within a decision making process in November 2011.


Europe

N.UK/North Sea/ Baltic Sea

AfricaKenya


%



The key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology. These regions demonstrate where winter seasonal 10m wind forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in winter (Stage B) and/or lower wind resource availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).



Europe


AfricaKenya


%



This does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational wind forecasts for these regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to their corresponding limitations. The primary limitations of a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or the low risk of variability in the wind resource for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.



Europe


AfricaKenya


The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:

CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)

EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)

SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)

20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_winter_wind

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