20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_autumn_wind

Climate Forecasting Unit

AUTUMNSeasonal Forecasts for

Global Wind Energy Melanie Davis, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Fabian Lienert


Fig. W1.3.1: Autumn 10m wind resource (speed, m/s) availability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)

m/s

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Wind energy potential: Where is it the windiest?

Darker red regions of this map show where global 10m wind resource (speed, m/s) is highest in autumn, and lighter yellow regions where it is lowest. N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.

* Reanalysis information comes from an objective combination of observations and numerical models that simulate one or more aspects of the Earth system, to generate a synthesised estimate of the state of the climate system and how it changes over time.

AUTUMN Wind Forecasts(September + October + November)


Fig. W1.3.2: Autumn 10m wind resource inter-annual variability from 1981-2011 (ERA-Interim)

m/s

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Wind energy volatility: Where does the wind vary the greatest?

Darker red regions of this map show where global 10m wind resource varies the most from one year to the next in autumn, and lighter yellow regions where it varies the least.

N.b. This information is based on reanalysis* data (ERA-Interim) not direct observations.



Europe

Autumn 10m wind resource availability Autumn 10m wind resource inter-annual variabilitym/s

Areas of interest: Patagonia/

Chile

Central Sahara/ Sahel/S.W.Ethiopia

W.India/W.China/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Tajikistan

N. Australia/Tasmania/Pacific Isles

S.America Africa Asia Australia

N.Mexico/S.Greenland

N.America

UK/Baltic Sea

Stage A: Wind Resource Assessment Where is wind resource potential and variability (volatility) highest?

By comparing both the autumn 10m global wind resource availability and inter-annual variability, it can be seen that there are several key areas (listed above) where wind resource is both abundant and highly variable. These regions are most vulnerable to wind resource variability over climate timescales, and are therefore of greatest interest for seasonal forecasting in autumn.



Fig. W2.3.1: Autumn 10m wind resource ensemble mean correlation(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

wind speed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment1St validation of the climate forecast system:

The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global wind resource variability in autumn 1 month ahead, is partially shown in this map. Skill is assessed by comparing the mean of a autumn wind forecast, made every year since 1981, to the reanalysis “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same variability over time, the skill is positive. This is the case even if their magnitudes are different (see example 1 and 2).

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast mean tell us about the wind resource variability at a specific time?


Fig. W2.3.1: Autumn 10m wind resource ensemble mean correlation

(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment1St validation of the climate forecast system:

Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumn seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast mean tell us about the wind resource variability at a specific time?


Fig. W2.3.2: Autumn 10m wind resource CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

time

wind speed

forecast + 1.0

obs. forecast - 1.0

forecast example 1

forecast - 1.0

example 2

example 3

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment2nd validation of the climate forecast system:

The skill of a climate forecast system, to predict global wind resource variability in autumn 1 month ahead, is fully shown in this map. Here, skill is assessed by comparing the full distribution (not just the mean value as in the previous map) of an autumn wind forecast, made every year since 1981, to the “observations” over the same period. If they follow the same magnitude of variability over time, the skill is positive (example 2).

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast distribution tell us about the magnitude of the wind resource variability, and its uncertainty at a specific time?


Fig. W2.3.2: Autumn 10m wind resource CR probability skill score(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time, once a year from 1981-2010)

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment2nd validation of the climate forecast system:

Dark red regions of the map show where the climate forecast system demonstrates the highest skill in autumn seasonal forecasting, with a forecast issued 1 month in advance. White regions show where there is no available forecast skill, and blue regions where the climate forecast system performs worse than a random prediction. A skill of 1 corresponds to a climate forecast that can perfectly represent the past “observations”.

Perfect Forecast

Same as Climatology

Worse than

Clima-tology


Can the wind forecast distribution tell us about the magnitude of the wind resource variability, and its uncertainty at a specific time?


EuropeAreas of interest:

N.E.Coast/Paraguay/E.Bolivia

Indonesia/S.China/Hong Kong/Taiwan

C.E.Australia/Pacific Isles

S.America AfricaAsia

Australia

Caribbean

N.America

UK/Baltic/S.Atlantic

Autumn 10m wind resource variability magnitude, and its uncertainty forecast skill

Autumn 10m wind resource variability forecast skill

Wind resource variability forecast skill only

Both wind resource variability and magnitude forecast skill

Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill Assessment

Where is wind forecast skill highest?

By comparing both the autumn 10m global wind resource forecast skill assessments, it can be seen that there are several key areas (listed above) where wind resource forecasts are skilful in assessing its variability, magnitude and uncertainty. These regions show the greatest potential for the use of operational autumn wind forecasts, and are therefore of greatest interest to seasonal wind forecasting in autumn.


Kenya-Somalia Coast


Stage B: Wind Forecast Skill AssessmentMagnitude and uncertaintlyforecast skillVariability forecast skill

m/sm/sm/s

SPRING Wind Forecasts

These four maps compare the seasonal autumn 10m wind resource global forecast skill maps (bottom) alongside the autumn 10m global wind resource availability and inter-annual variability maps (top). It can be seen that there are several key areas (highlighted above) where the forecast skill is high in both its variability, magnitude and uncertainty, and the wind resource is both abundant and highly variable. These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonal wind forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use.

EuropeAreas of Interest:(Forecast skill)

N.E.Coast/Paraguay/ E.Bolivia

Indonesia/S.China/Hong Kong/Taiwan

S.America Africa Asia Australia

Caribbean

N.America

UK/Baltic Sea/S.Atlantic

Europe S.America Africa Asia AustraliaN.America

Patagonia/Chile

Central Sahara/ Sahel/S.W.Ethiopia

W.India/W.China/Afghanistan/Pakistan/Tajikistan

N.Australia/Tasmania/Pacific Isles

N.Mexico/S.Greenland

UK/Baltic Sea

Areas of Interest: (Resources)

Where is wind resource potential and volatility highest?

Wind resource inter-annual variability Wind resource availabilityStage A: Wind Resource Assessment

Variability forecast skillWhere is wind forecast skill highest?


E.Australia/Pacific Isles

Kenya- Somalia Coast


%

Europe

MexicoUK/Baltic Sea

Areas of Interest Identified:(Resources and Forecast Skill)

W.

Australia

Pacific Isles

Fig. W3.3.1: Probabilistic forecast of (future) autumn 2011,10m wind resource most likely tercile(ECMWF S4, 1 month forecast lead time)

Stage C: Operational Wind Forecast

This operational wind forecast shows the probability of global 10m wind resource to be higher (red), lower (blue) or normal (white) over the forthcoming autumn season, compared to their mean value over the past 30 years. As the forecast season is autumn 2011, this is an example of wind forecast information that could have been available for use within a decision making process in August 2011.



%


The key areas of highest interest are shown, identified in the stages A and B of the forecast methodology. These regions demonstrate where autumn seasonal 10m wind forecasts have the greatest value and potential for operational use. The areas that are blanked out either have lower forecast skill in autumn (Stage B) and/or lower wind resource availability and inter-annual variability (Stage A).



Europe

MexicoUK/Baltic Sea


W.

Australia

Pacific Isles


%


This does not mean that the blanked out areas are not useful, only that the operational wind forecast for these regions should be used within a decision making process with due awareness to their corresponding limitations. The primary limitations to a climate forecast are either the forecast skill and/or the low risk of variability in the wind resource for a given region. See the “caveats” webpage for further limitations.



Europe

MexicoUK/Baltic Sea


W.

Australia

Pacific Isles


The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under the following projects:

CLIM-RUN, www.clim-run.eu (GA n° 265192)

EUPORIAS, www.euporias.eu (GA n° 308291)

SPECS, www.specs-fp7.eu (GA n° 308378)

20130607 arecs web_forecast_video_autumn_wind

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