2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

39
Salomon Smith Barney Latin Conference March 7 & 8, 2002 Maurício Novis Botelho President & CEO Salomon Smith Barney Latin Conference March 7 & 8, 2002 Maurício Novis Botelho President & CEO

Transcript of 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Page 1: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Salomon Smith Barney Latin Conference

March 7 & 8, 2002

Maurício Novis BotelhoPresident & CEO

Salomon Smith Barney Latin Conference

March 7 & 8, 2002

Maurício Novis BotelhoPresident & CEO

Page 2: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

The Company

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Foward Looking Statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. We have based these forward-looking statements largely on our current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting our business and our future financial performance. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, including, among other things: general economic, political and business conditions, both in Brazil and in our markets; management’s expectations and estimates concerning our future financial performance, financing plans and programs, and the effects of competition; successful development and marketing of the Embraer 170/190 jet family; our level of debt; anticipated trends in our industry; our expenditure plans; inflation and devaluation; our ability to develop and deliver our products on a timely basis; and existing and future governmental regulation.

We undertake no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events or other factors, In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed in this presentation might not occur. Our actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in our forward-looking statements.

Page 4: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Q Fourth largest commercial aircraft manufacturer in the world, with leading aerospace products and technology

Q Premier global customer base - strong market share

Q Strong global partners

Q Outstanding financial performance

Q Largest exporter in Brazil in 1999, 2000 & 2001

Company Highlights

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Commercial Market

ERJ 135/ 140/ 145 Jet Family

n 37, 44 and 50-seat jet family

n 96% commonality among aircraft

As of January 31, 2002:

n 866 firm orders and 361 options

n 512 aircraft delivered since ‘96

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Commercial Market

EMBRAER 170/ 175/ 190/ 195 Jet Family

n 70,78, 98 and 108-seat jet family

n 112 firm orders and 202 options on January 31, 2002

n Nearly two-thirds of development costs borne by risk sharing partners

n Deliveries scheduled to begin in late 2002 with EMBRAER 170

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Corporate Market - Legacy

Q Corporate Jet based on the ERJ 135 Q First delivered in January, 2002 Q 167 units sold (73 firm orders and 94 options – as of

February, 2002)

Q Executive

Q Corporate Shuttle

Q Transport for Authorities

Versions

Page 8: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Proteus Airlines

Global Customer Base

Page 9: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Le Bourget - FranceDallas - USA

Weybridge,UK

Global PresenceGlobal Presence

Fort Lauderdale-USA

São José dos Campos

Gavião PeixotoBotucatu Eugênio de Melo

West Palm Beach -USA

Melbourne- Austrália

Cingapure

Beijing - China

Page 10: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

ERJ 145 Family: 4 Partners & 350 Suppliers

EMBRAER 170/190: 16 Partners & 22 Suppliers

Industrial Partners and Suppliers

Page 11: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

The Airline Market

An Industry in Transition

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Industry in Transition (after Sept.11)Industry in Transition (after Sept.11)

Capacity Management

QParked Aircraft

QDelivery schedules being re-negotiated (regional jets to a much lesser extent)

QRightsizing capacity vs. demand: regional jets being used in the USA to maintain presence in markets with decreased demand

QCash Management: focus on return to profitability in a low-yield environment

Page 13: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Source: RAA, FAA

U.S. Regional Airlines% of Domestic Traffic

US Regional Enplanements IncreasingUS Regional Enplanements Increasing

PassengerEnplanements

(Millions)

19701970 19851985 20002000 2010F2010F

00

200200

400400

600600

800800

1,0001,000

3 %3 %7 %7 %

12 %12 %14%14%

Regional

Major

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5%

-3%-1% -1%

-3% -2%

0%3%

-33%

-21%

-18%

-13%

17%

9%7%

2% 2% 1%

6%

13%

-23%

-2%

5%

14%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

jan/01 Feb Mar Apr May jun/01 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec/2001

RP

M G

row

th -

Yr/

Yr

% C

han

ge

Domestic ATA Regional RAA

Commercial Airline Market - USACommercial Airline Market - USA

Source: Top Regionals, ATA

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9%

6%5%

7% 6% 6%4% 4%

-3%

-13%-15%

-14%

13%

5%

7%

9%

4%

7% 7%6%

1%

-7%

1%

-3%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

jan/01 Feb Mar Apr May jun/01 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec/01

RP

K G

row

th -

Yr/

Yr

% C

han

ge

Intra-European AEA Regional ERAA

Commercial Airline Market - EuropeCommercial Airline Market - Europe

Source: ERAA, AEA

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Jet Replacement

Industry in Transition (after Sept.11)Industry in Transition (after Sept.11)

Rightsizing capacity vs. demand: Routes transferred to RJs

Turboprop Replacement

Source: Back OAG (American, Continental, Delta,United, and US Airways)

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Jet Replacement

Source: Back OAG Air France, Alitalia and British Airways

Turboprop Replacement

Industry in Transition after Sep 11Industry in Transition after Sep 11

Rightsizing capacity vs. demand: Routes transfered to RJs

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The New Jet Family

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4040

00

19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F

3030

2020

1010

5050

Average Seating Capacity

Source: FAA, RAA, Embraer

US Regional Aircraft Size IncreasingUS Regional Aircraft Size Increasing

Seats per Aircraft

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00

1010

2020

3030

4040

5050

6060

7070

8080

19901990 19951995 20002000 2010F2010F

Average Seating Capacity

Source: ERAA, Embraer

Seats per Aircraft

European Regional Aircraft Size IncreasingEuropean Regional Aircraft Size Increasing

Page 21: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

EMBRAER 17578 Seats

EMBRAER 17578 Seats

EMBRAER 170

70 Seats

EMBRAER 170

70 Seats

EMBRAER 190

98 Seats

EMBRAER 190

98 Seats

EMBRAER 195

108 Seats

EMBRAER 195

108 Seats

Anticipating Market NeedsAnticipating Market Needs

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120

160

Seat Capacity

Stage Length (nm)

40

80

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

0

EMBRAER 170/190

30 Seat Tprops

50 Seat ERJ

Narrow Body Large Aircraft

37 - 44 Seat ERJs

Filling the Seat Capacity GapFilling the Seat Capacity Gap

Page 23: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Q Better than mainline jet comfort in all-business cabin concept

Q Cabin features:Q no middle seatQ large headroomQ easier access to bins and

seatsQ faster boarding and deplaning

Q Cabin can accommodate roll-on bag for each passenger

Q Superior ground service access and baggage handling

Q Highest total baggage volume and highest baggage volume per passenger in its category Actual mockup picture

EMBRAER 170/190 Cabin Specs.EMBRAER 170/190 Cabin Specs.

Page 24: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Backlog & Demand Forecast

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FirmBacklog

FirmBacklog

25

ERJ 145 Family OrderbookERJ 145 Family Orderbook

ERJ 135

ERJ 140

ERJ 145

Total

ERJ 135

ERJ 140

ERJ 145

Total

As of January/2002

OptionsOptions TotalTotal DeliveriesDeliveries

121121

571571

174174

866866

4747

269269

4545

361361

FirmFirm

168168

840840

219219

1,2271,227

8989

399399

2424

512512

3232

172172

150150

354354

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Firm Options Total

EMBRAER 170 82 130 212

EMBRAER 190 30 72 102

Total 112 202 314

Firm Options Total

EMBRAER 170 82 130 212

EMBRAER 190 30 72 102

Total 112 202 314

EMBRAER 170/190 Family OrderbookEMBRAER 170/190 Family Orderbook

As of January/2002

Page 27: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

World (30-120 seat segment): 8,695 jets (US$200 Billion)World (30-120 seat segment): 8,695 jets (US$200 Billion)

SegmentSegment 2002-20112002-2011 2012-20212012-2021

30 - 6030 - 60 1,8101,810 1,7351,735

61 - 9061 - 90 1,0851,085 1,2851,285

91 - 12091 - 120 1,1901,190 1,5901,590

TotalTotal 4,0854,085 4,6104,610

Market Forecast 2002 – 2011World Deliveries by Segment - JetsMarket Forecast 2002 – 2011World Deliveries by Segment - Jets

Page 28: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Market Forecast 2002-2011Market Forecast 2002-2011

30-120 Seats: 4,085 Jets30-120 Seats: 4,085 Jets

AsiaPacific

2456%

AsiaPacific

2456%

Europe96024%

Europe96024%

LatinAmerica3458%

LatinAmerica3458%

China275

7%

China275

7%Africa &Middle East1303%

Africa &Middle East1303%

USA, Canada& Caribbean2,13052%

USA, Canada& Caribbean2,13052%

Page 29: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Financials

Page 30: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

(US$ Million)

Firm Orders on Backlog

647 729 1,227

3,011 4,112

6,367

10.662 11,449

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

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Jet Deliveries - Units

4

32

60

96

160

135145

161

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E

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Growth:97/96: 98%98/97: 76%99/98: 37%00/99 54%

Gross Sales

390772

2,8592,406

1,861

1,362

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

96 97 98 99 00 9M01

US$ Million – Corporate Law

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(US$ Million)

Trade Balance Contribution

(*) Source: Decex

193 264

634

1.173

1.692

2.702

2.897

147220

469

881

1.178

1.352

1.843

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

95 96 97 98 99 (*) 00 (*) 01 (*)

US

$M

illl

ion

Export Import

Page 34: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Revenue by SegmentRevenue by Segment

2002 (F)

Corporate10%

Defense12%

Parts & Services /

Others7%

Commercial71%

2003 (F)

Corporate12%

Defense12%

Parts & Services /

Others7%

Commercial69%

9 Months 2001

Corporate2%

Defense5%

Parts & Services /

Others6%

Commercial87%

Towards Diversification

Page 35: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

EBITDA means Net Income before Interest, Income Taxes, Non-Operating Expenses, Depreciation and Amortization

EBITDA

-93

47162

274

400

596

780

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

95 96 97 98 99 00 9M01

US$ Million – Corporate Law

Page 36: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Net Income

-31

114

227

354353

-122

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

96 97 98 99 00 9M01

US$ Million – Corporate Law

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(US$ Million)

Net (Debt) Cash

139

-289 -249 -329

732

-415-500

0

500

1000

96 97 98 99 00 Sep. 01

Page 38: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

(US$ Million)

Productivity EffortsProduct Development

Investments

60%

40%

98 104 122147

283213

81

050

100150200250300

95 96 97 98 99 00 01

Page 39: 2002* ApresentaçãO Realizada Na ConferêNcia De AméRica Latina Do Salomon Smith Barney

Investment Forecast

(US$ Million) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total

Products under Development 204 183 171 166 168 892

Commercial Programs 138 105 61 34 27 365

Corporate Programs 15 6 2 2 2 27

Defense Programs 51 72 109 130 139 501

Segments 3 2 2 2 2 11

Technology Development 6 6 6 6 6 30

TOR (Transformation of the Organization) 2 2 - - - 4

Property, Plant & Equipment 116 69 59 50 51 345

TOTAL 331 262 238 224 227 1282