2 nd ANNUAL IFR EQUITY CAPITAL CONFERENCE 12 November 2010 Equity funding in Germany.
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Transcript of 2 nd ANNUAL IFR EQUITY CAPITAL CONFERENCE 12 November 2010 Equity funding in Germany.
2nd ANNUAL IFR EQUITY CAPITAL CONFERENCE
12 November 2010
Equity funding in Germany
2
13.8
23.0
Total (bn €)
German ECM market in Western Europe (2010 YTD) German ECM transactions split by type (2010 YTD)
Analysis of German ECM deal flow
Germany is a strong “European ECM country”; rights issue dominate activity in 2010
Comparison of German ECM products 2009 and 2010 (by volume)
Source: Dealogic
2009 2010
20%
4%
19%
0%2% 3%10% 12%
57%74%
Equity Linked Capital Increase Secondary Placing IPO Rights Issue
n/m
216%
166%
3
German ECM volumes driven by balance sheet restructuring
German Primary Issues 2010 YTD Case Study: Heidelberger Druckmaschinen
Driven by capital intensive industries Type of offering: Rights IssueTransaction volume: €419.3m Subscription ratio: 2 new : 1 old30.2% discount to TERP
Pressure for shareholders to follow their money but significant support required from new investors
Structural industry decline Rescue Rights Issue
Use of proceeds: Repay credit lines
Heavy rights trading Over 80% of rights were recycled Net debt/EBITDA 2011 post: 2.7x
Net debt/EBITDA 2011 pre: 3.2x
99.85% take-up ratio
Geographical split of investors contacted by Commerzbank
Share Price Development
Industry Split*
Use of Proceeds*
Investors contacted by Commerzbank
05
1015202530
2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Dealogic. * Based on Size of transaction - Below EUR5bn (excludes Deutsche Bank rights issue)
Other 2%
Healthcare 8%
Utility & Energy 2%
Autos /Industrials 69%
Financial 4%Real Estate / Construction 5%
Electronic 11%
Acquisitions 6%
General Corp. Purposes 4%
Growth 7%Repay debt / Restructuring
84%
International
88%
Germany12% New Investors
79%
Existing shareholders
21%
4
Investor preference for de-risked opportunities (1)
Brenntag
IPO – 29 Mar 2010: €747.5m
Secondary – 1 Oct 2010: €668m
Estimated demand
Source: Dealogic, IFR, Commerzbank
International95%
Germany5%Price €50 (just below mid-point of €46 - €56 range)
70% primary and 30% secondary shares
29% free float after the IPO
10 days investor education, 9 days bookbuilding
Books ~ 3 - 4x covered
Discount to fair value
IPO price: 15.7%
Price range: 5.6% - 22.4%
Price €60.75
Discount to previous close 0.4%
Premium to IPO price 21.5%
258 days trading
Transaction represented 73.5% of pre-deal free float
Speed: overnight accelerated bookbuilding
International85%
Germany15%
Estimated demand
Share Price Development
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Premium to IPO price 21.5%
2 corporate results announcements since IPO
6 months trading history
IPO market still not fully-functioning relative to market opportunities for listed companies
IPO price
Placing price
Placement
5
Investor preference for de-risked opportunities (2)
IPO market still not fully-functioning relative to market opportunities for listed companies
Kabel Deutschland
IPO – 19 Mar 2010: €660m
Secondary – 30 Sep 2010: €413m
Source: Dealogic, IFR, Commerzbank
International98%
Germany2%Price €22 (low end of €21.50 - €25.50 range)
100% secondary shares
38% free float after the IPO
10 days investor education, 9 days bookbuilding
Books ~ 1 - 2x covered
Discounts to fair value
IPO price: 20.1%
Price range: 7.4% - 21.9%
Price €27.50
Discount to previous close 3.8%
Premium to IPO price 25%
100 days trading
Transaction represented 50% of pre-deal free float
Speed: overnight accelerated bookbuilding
International90%
Germany10%
20
25
30
35
Mar-10
May-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Estimated demand
Estimated demand
Share Price Development
Placement
Premium to IPO price 25%
2 corporate results announcements since IPO
6 months trading history
IPO price
Placing price
6
How “German” is the German IPO market?
Significant international presence in Index stocks magnified in ECM transactions
DAX (top 30 listed companies) MDAX (next 50 listed companies)
Holdings by investor country Holdings by investor country
IPOs raising > €500m IPOs raising €100m - €500m
Investors by country (Commerzbank estimates) Investors by country (Commerzbank estimates)
International85–90%
Germany10–15%
International75–80%
Germany20–25%
Source: Dealogic, Commerzbank
7
Speed
Why are German investors less prominent in German deals?
ABBs require speedy decision-making; IPOs require intensive education and model-building
the largest funds have both the resources (manpower and uninvested capital) and internal processes to place game-changing orders quickly
Investment banks (whether on risk or not) are motivated to build early momentum for best execution
focus early attention on investors that can make a difference; supplement with long-tail to maximise price tension
Pilot-fishing and other test marketing also give the largest investors an added timing advantage
Possible reasons for the market dynamic
* Source: European Fund and Asset Management Association (EFAMA), Q2 2010
Dispersion of AuM
High concentration in German fund management: the top 10 funds manage 75% of equity AuM
Low relative equity assets: German equity funds total USD 123bn (44% of assets invested) vs. UK equity fonds of USD 417bn (61% of assets invested)*
insufficient domestic depth alone, with a well-covered deal requiring 20-30 'power investors'
Large and growing universe of high-value investors located in London and New York (both long and hedge) with funds targeting opportunities in Germany
stock selection based on sector, market value or style (also region but rarely country)
8
Selling “Germany” to the world requires an international platform
Commerzbank’s distribution platform Investor Relations focus at side Germany
Research organised into German focus-sectors Commerzbank ECM track-record in 2010
Frankfurt London New York
Mid-Caps Mid-CapsLarge Caps
European core sectors
Automotive
Steel &Capital Goods
Power & Utilities
Chemicals
TMT
Transport & Logistics
Germancore sectors
Consumer / Retail
Life Science
Real Estate
Financials
Construction
Utilities
3 dedicated equity sales hubs
100 Research specialists including more than 30 equity analysts covering over 200 stocks (100% of DAX and MDAX)
#1 for Germany Country Analysis – Extel Surveys 2010
German Mid Cap Day London
German Investment Seminar
New York
German Mid Cap Day New York
Our platform delivers “German insight” from German sectors on a global basis
120 corporate roadshows in
the last 12 months87% of DAX
represented at CEO/CFO
level (Jan 2011)
Postanschrift:60261 Frankfurt am MainPhone +49 (0)69 / 136-20Mail [email protected]
HeadquarterKaiserplatzFrankfurt am MainGermanywww.commerzbank.de
Ute GerbauletGlobal Head of Equity Capital Markets
Phone +49 69 136 22974Mail [email protected]
Dan OakesHead of International ECM Origination
Phone +44 20 136 7475 3802Mail [email protected]