082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 1 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 2 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 6

2. Abbreviation and Acronyms .................................................................................................. 7

3. Risk relativity .......................................................................................................................... 8

4. Risk is not absolute ................................................................................................................. 8

5. Risk, the three blind managers and the elephant................................................................. 9

6. Zooming out and zooming in ............................................................................................... 10

7. Can risk be neutral? ............................................................................................................. 10

8. What is it that we do every day? .......................................................................................... 10

9. Risks and objectives .............................................................................................................. 11

10. Chaos theory and risks ..................................................................................................... 11

11. Risks and the Fable-“The Mouse and the Mouse Trap” ............................................... 11

12. Fabled conclusion .............................................................................................................. 13

13. Approach to duration ranging ......................................................................................... 13

13.1. Growing opinion on ranges ........................................................................................... 14

13.2. Relative values between your 3-point estimate ........................................................... 14

13.3. Three point references ................................................................................................... 15

13.4. Avoid double-dipping .................................................................................................... 15

14. Quality of input data ......................................................................................................... 15

14.1. Validating the project schedule .................................................................................... 16

14.2. Issue on calendars .......................................................................................................... 16

14.3. Baseline schedule ........................................................................................................... 17

15. Preparing the schedule risk model .................................................................................. 17

082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 3 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

15.1. Use of schedule filter ...................................................................................................... 17

15.2. Issue on using static paths ............................................................................................. 18

15.3. Very high level summary (VHLS) ................................................................................ 18

15.4. Medium level summary (MLS) .................................................................................... 19

15.5. Reservation on using summary model ......................................................................... 20

15.6. Fit for purpose model .................................................................................................... 20

16. Two types of schedule risks .............................................................................................. 21

17. Proponents of VHLS schedule model .............................................................................. 21

17.1. Proponent #1 replied: .................................................................................................... 21

17.2. Proponent #2 replied: .................................................................................................... 21

17.3. Proponent #3 replied: .................................................................................................... 22

17.4. Proponent #4 replied: .................................................................................................... 22

18. Why do I stay away from VHLS when it comes to mega-projects? ............................. 22

18.1. Lost logics ....................................................................................................................... 22

18.2. Forced reliance on lags and constraints ...................................................................... 23

18.3. The higher the level, the greater the unknown ........................................................... 23

18.4. Contracts and level of schedule .................................................................................... 24

18.5. The schedule owner should provide the summary model .......................................... 24

18.6. Using the WBS in quantification instead of the summary model .................. 25

19. Optimum size of the schedule for SQRA ........................................................................ 25

20. Running SQRA using the detailed schedule ................................................................... 25

21. Integrated Cost and Schedule Quantitative Risk Analysis (ICSQRA) ........................ 26

22. Run multiple risk models .................................................................................................. 26

23. Deterministic schedule ...................................................................................................... 26

082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 4 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

24. Political dates ..................................................................................................................... 27

24.1. Which schedule to use? ................................................................................................. 27

24.2. Schedule contingency versus political date ................................................................. 28

25. BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................. 29

26. INDEX ................................................................................................................................ 30

082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 5 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

082213-Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches Page 6 of 32 Author: Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP, CCP, PMI-RMP

Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches

Sorry, the article you are looking was removed. You will find a more detailed discussion about the subject and other related topics in the paperback edition of the book "Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project Controls Perspective." It is also available in Amazon’s Kindle edition. Copy and paste the following on your browser. http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI http://www.amazon.com/dp/B0104OFUDI/ref=rdr_kindle_ext_tmb https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/risk-based-management-world-threats-opportunities-rufran?trk=prof-post Cheers, Rufran (070615)