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Transcript of 0711_Coffee and Climate Change_synthesis Report_final

  • Date: 27/06/2011

    Coffee and Climate Change Desk Study: Impacts of Climate Change in four Pilot Countries of the Coffee & Climate Initiative

    Jeremy Haggar, University of Greenwich & Kathleen Schepp

  • Coffee & Climate Change: Impacts in four Pilot Countries

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    INTRODUCTION 4 I SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 5

    General impacts of climate change on coffee 5 Climate change impacts on coffee in Guatemala 6 Climate change impacts on coffee in Brazil 6 Climate change impacts on coffee in Tanzania 7 Climate change impacts on coffee in Viet Nam 8 Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the coffee sector 9

    Monitoring climate change in coffee growing regions 9 Adaptation strategies 9 Climate modules and codes 9 Mitigation Strategies 9

    Recommendations for the Coffee & Climate initiative 10 Impacts on the Coffee Arabica plant 12 Impacts on the Coffee Robusta Plant 12 Impacts on the Coffee Industry 13 Climate Change Impact Assessment Tools 13

    1. COUNTRY PROFILE GUATEMALA 15 Summary of Findings 15 1.1 Projections of future climate change 15 Predicted climate changes 15 Climate variability 15 1.2 Impacts of climate change 16 Impacts and limitations to adaptation 19 1.3 Initiatives for adaptation to climate change 20 1.4 Mitigation options 21 1.5 Recommendations of priorities for Adaptation and Mitigation in Guatemala 22

    2. COUNTRY PROFILE BRAZIL 23 Summary of findings 23 2.1 Past and Future Projections of Climate Change 24 Past Climate Tendencies 24 Regional Climate Models (RCM) estimate temperature and precipitation 24 Climate Change Impact Scenarios 25 2.2 The Coffee Sector in Brazil 27 Summary of Status of Coffee Sector in Brazil 27 Climate Change vulnerability of Brazilian Coffee Sector 29 Coffee Sector Organizations 29 2.3 Expected Changes in Coffee Production 29 2.4 Proposed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change 34 2.5 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Initiatives in Brazil 35

    3. COUNTRY PROFILE TANZANIA 37 Summary of country findings 37 3.1 Past and future projections of changes in climate 37 Past climate tendencies 37 Global climate model estimates of future temperature 38 Global climate model estimates of change in Precipitation 38 3.2 Summary of status of coffee sector in Tanzania 39

  • Coffee & Climate Change: Impacts in four Pilot Countries

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    Coffee sector organizations 39 3.3 Changes in coffee production 40 Coffee and climate change predictions for Kenya 40 Coffee in Uganda 41 Conclusions re impacts on coffee in Tanzania 41 3.4 General Adaptation Measures 42 3.5 Initiatives in Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change in Tanzania 43 3.6 Recommendations of priorities for Adaptation and Mitigation in Tanzania 46

    4. COUNTRY PROFILE VIET NAM 48 Summary of findings 48 4.1 Past and Future Projections of Climate Change 48 Past Climate Tendencies 49 Global Climate Model (GCM) estimates temperature and precipitation 49 Climate Change Impact Scenarios 49 4.2 The Coffee Sector in Vietnam 50 Summary of Status of Coffee Sector in Viet Nam 50 Climate Change vulnerability of Vietnamese Coffee Sector 52 Coffee Sector Organizations 53 4.3 Expected Changes in Coffee Production 54 4.4 Proposed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change 55 4.5 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Initiatives in Vietnam 56 International Support Programs 56 National Support Programs 57

    III STRATEGIES FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE COFFEE SECTOR 59 Monitoring of climate change in coffee growing regions 59 Strategies for Adaptation 59 Climate Modules and Codes 62 Strategies for Mitigation of Climate Change 62

    IV RECOMMENDATIONS 64 REFERENCES 65 ANNEX I 68

    List of stakeholders and contact persons 68

  • Coffee & Climate Change: Impacts in four Pilot Countries

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    INTRODUCTION Gustav Paulig Ltd., Joh. Johannson Kaffe AS, Lfbergs Lila AB, Neumann Gruppe GmbH, Tchibo GmbH, Fondazione Giuseppe e Pericle Lavazza Onlus, and the Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) are implementing a supra regional Development Partnership with a focus on coffee and climate change. The objective of the initiative for Coffee & Climate (C&C) is that producers and service providers along selected green coffee supply chains in key coffee regions have access to adequate knowledge and instruments that enable them to apply and finance effective climate change adaption and mitigation strategies. In order to be better prepared for the impacts of climate change, scientific research on a regional basis is necessary. Therefore short country portfolios on coffee and climate change had been developed for the four pilot countries Brazil, Vietnam, Tanzania and Guatemala. For the present work several stakeholders at international level and national level in the four pilot countries were contacted (see annex I). They provided information on the national coffee sector, climate change data and impact scenarios as well as research studies on climate change impacts on coffee production and trade, so far available. All available information was studied and systematized to give an overview of perceived and expected climate change impacts on the national coffee sector in each of the four pilot countries. Relevant stakeholders and climate change initiatives at national and international level were screened and some potential partners for strategic alliances or other forms of collaboration in the framework of the C&C initiative were identified. In order to support the projects main objective to develop a toolbox of adaptation and mitigation measures the authors furthermore identified based on existing knowledge and data the climate vulnerability of the coffee sector in each country. Consequently, they highlighted some important adaptation needs and identified potential mitigation options.

  • Coffee & Climate Change: Impacts in four Pilot Countries

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    I SUMMARY OF FINDINGS Stakeholders in the coffee value chains in all four countries already perceive changes in coffee production that can be linked with changing climate conditions, although only two of the countries can count on specific climate predictions. In Guatemala and Brazil, where scientific institutions provide suitability maps, large changes in the distribution of the coffee are expected over the next forty years with a smaller net loss in the total area suitable for coffee production. These predictions serve very well to start the development of adequate adaptation strategies. In Viet Nam climate impact scenarios, are accessible for agriculture, but there are no estimates of impacts on Robusta cultivation, while Viet Nam is the worlds largest Robusta producer. Nevertheless, the institutional framework in Viet Nam appears to be very supportive of climate change initiatives and representatives at governmental and academic institutions are highly motivated to cooperate. In Tanzania climate change data based on international research are generally available, but coffee impact scenarios only exist for the neighbouring countries of Kenya and Uganda. Also the institutional framework is rather weak. Consequently, the C&C initiative should invest in building institutional capacities in Tanzania and also in Viet Nam as well as in generating baseline information.

    Without question, all four pilot countries are still suffering from climate change impacts and are expected to experience more or less severe changes in the suitability of their current coffee cultivation areas. Surprisingly there are few practical adaptation and mitigation measures being implemented to cope with climate change. The only coffee specific adaptation actions are in Guatemala and Central America, and some agricultural initiatives in Tanzania. Nevertheless, the experiences and lessons learnt from existing public and private initiatives that aim at practical implementation such as AdapCC, Coffee under Pressure or the cooperation project between Starbucks and Conservation International should be considered well when designing a toolbox for climate change in the coffee sector.

    General impacts of climate change on coffee Temperature and rainfall conditions are considered to be important factors in defining potential coffee yield. Both factors interfere in the crop phenology, and consequently in productivity and quality. The Arabica coffee plant responds sensitively to increasing temperatures, specifically during blossoming and fructification. Scientific literature is varying concerning marginal temperatures for Arabica. Marcelo Camargo from the Agronomic Institute of the University of Campinas in Brazil (IAC) states that mean temperatures above 23C hinder the development and ripening of cherries and a continuous exposure to daily temperatures as high as 30C could result in reduced growth or even in yellowing and loss of leaves. The FAO EcoCrop model gives information on optimal and absolute temperatures for coffee Arabica, ranging from 14 to 28C and 10 to 30C, respectively. Besides the direct impacts of high temperatures on the coffee crop the increase of pests and diseases is supposed to be a consequence of increasing temperatures. Raquel Ghini and other scientists at Embrapa in Brazil studied the impact of climate change on the distribution of nematodes and leaf miner and expect an increasing occurrence. Also water stress affects the physiological activity of the Arabica plant causing a reduction in photosynthesis.

    Robusta coffee is better adapted to slightly higher temperatures, but is much less adaptable to lower temperatures than Arabica. The FAO Ecocrop model determines the opt