YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Strategic AnalysisSouth West Summary

Pete.Gisborne@ypla.gov.ukStrategic Analysis Manager

YPLA Western Territory

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

This presentation

1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s

175.0

180.0

185.0

190.0

195.0

200.0

205.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2008-2017SW 11% decline 16-18s

Eng 13% decline 16-18s

Plymouth 19% decline

N.Soms 1% decline

over 6,700 fewer2011-2015

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Major industries in the South West

50% of all jobs

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000

Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

% of 16-18s in jobs without training

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Mar-07

Aug-07

Jan-0

8Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May

-11

Eng

SW

Devon

Soms

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Au

g-99

Feb-

00

Aug-

00

Feb-

01

Aug-

01

Feb-

02

Aug-

02

Feb-

03

Aug-

03

Feb-

04

Aug-

04

Feb-

05

Aug-

05

Feb-

06

Aug-

06

Feb-

07

Aug-

07

Feb-

08

Aug-

08

Feb-

09

Aug-

09

Feb-

10

Aug-

10

Feb-

11

Aug-

11

HSBC USsub-primewarning

LehmanBros.

bankrupt

UKeconomy

inrecession

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

This presentation

1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

% of SW 16-18s NEET

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

England

SouthWestB&NES

Bristol

UK economyin recession

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Participation by SW 16-17s

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Increasing presence of Academies –SW 16-18s

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2007/08S04

2008/09S04

2009/10S04

2010/11S02

2011/12allocated

Maintained

Academies

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

16-18 participation and population trends andprojections

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Measured Projected

Participation

Population

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Annual 16-18 participation change required tohit 2013 RPA target

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

population

participation

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

SW learners by level

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

EntryLevel

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel

EntryLevel

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel

FE School Sixth Forms

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

nearly half ofFE learnersare @ L3

78% of SSFlearners @ L3- static

10%reduction

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

This presentation

1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

16-18 travel to learn – major flows

38%500Bournemouth &Poole

Poole

38%500Bournemouth &Poole

DorsetGreaterBournemouth

51%500CirencesterSwindon

no trend300Swindon College

-8%300New CollegeWiltshireSwindon

13%900South DevonDevonGreater Devon

23%400BrockenhurstDorset

no trend500BrockenhurstBournemouth

21%200Totton

19%400SparsholtWiltsinto Hants

154%*500St. Brendan's

no trend700City of Bristol[Bristol]

South Gloucs

-13%800Filton

no trend300City of Bristol[S.Gloucs]

BristolGreater Bristol

3 year trendNumberLearnsLives

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100%

88 @£46keach

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005/2

006

2006/

2007

2007

/2008

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010/

2011

Cornwall

Dorset

South West

England

c.400 @£44k each

c.600 @£54k each

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims

35% ‘STEM’ -steady

Science &Maths =nearly 30% ofall SW SSFAims

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject

16% ‘STEM’– risingslightly

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

This presentation

1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Level 2 at 19

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10

Pe

rcen

tag

eA

ttai

nm

ent

Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Level 3 at 19

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10

Per

cen

tage

Att

ainm

ent

B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 3

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Corn

wal

l

Glou

cest

ersh

ire

Sout

hW

est

Engl

and

Corn

wal

l

Glou

cest

ersh

ire

Sout

hW

est

Engl

and

Level 2 Level 3

19 in 2004/05

19 in 2005/06

19 in 2006/07

19 in 2007/08

19 in 2008/09

19 in 2009/10

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

Attainment by 19 of learners attending SWschools at 15

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Englishand/ormaths

NeitherEnglish

nor maths

Englishand maths

English ormaths orneither

No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16

No level 3 attained

Level 3 attained