Post on 01-Apr-2015
Visualizing Sea Level Rise:Exploring Sea Level Rise
with FieldScope
A University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Lab and National Geographic Society project
in collaboration with NOAA BWET program, MD Department of Natural Resources, DE and MD National Estuarine Research
Reserve, and University of Virginia Blandy Experimental Farm
Decrease in sea ice –
decrease in plankton –
decrease in krill- decrease in penguins, albatrosses, seals & whales.
4
MEES 698Y Science for Environment Management Spring 2013
5
Bringing the contributions to sea-level rise together
MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013
Sea-level rise will not stop in 2100
6
Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.
MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013
ending all emissions in 2016
stabilizing at 2ºC
Multiple implications of sea-level rise
Inundation & shoreline erosion
Increase base of storm surge
Overwhelming ability of tidal wetlands to aggrade & migrate
Salt-water intrusion in estuaries
Salinization of ag. soils Salinization of ground
water Social demand for
protection & resistance to adaptation
7MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013
8
9
NOAA Sea Level Online Website: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
Lesson 1 – Current SLR
10
Expanding
ocean volume
Melting glaciers
Melting ice fields
in Greenlan
d
Melting ice fields
in Antarctic
a
Changing ocean currents
Sinking land
Predicted
relative SLR from
1993 to 2100
0.24 m 0.13 m 0.10 m 0.30 m 0.17 m 0.15 m 1.1 m
Lesson 1 – Predicted SLR
Ocean Expansion (0-700m of depth)
EXPLORING SEA LEVEL
RISE
RECORD: HOW MUCH HAS THE OCEAN WARMED & EXPANDED 1960-2007?
Oceans are
Warming: Expandin
g & Melting
ice
Warm Water
Expands in the oceanMelting
polar Ice from warm
ocean and air is
adding to the ocean
Atmosphere is
warming: Melting polar Ice
Does Melting Sea Ice
Contribute to Sea Level?
What makes sea
level change?
Is Greenland’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
Is There A Critical Tipping Point?
What Can I Do?
How Fast Can Sea
Level Change?How Much
Ice Is There At the Poles?
Is Antarctica’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_drives_longer.html
*Thermosteric is change in sea surface height from expansion/contraction from temperature change
EXPLORING SEA LEVEL
RISE
HOW MUCH MORE WATER IS IN THE OCEAN FROM MELTING POLAR GLACIERS?
MELTWATER CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL
Oceans are
Warming: Expandin
g & Melting
ice
Warm Water
Expands in the oceanMelting
polar Ice from warm
ocean and air is
adding to the ocean
Atmosphere is
warming: Melting polar Ice
Does Melting Sea Ice
Contribute to Sea Level?
What makes sea
level change?
Is Greenland’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
Is There A Critical Tipping Point?
What Can I Do?
How Fast Can Sea
Level Change?How Much
Ice Is There At the Poles?
Is Antarctica’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
‘Science Fact’: Melting ice from the Earth’s glaciers adds to the oceans causing sea level to rise.
Glaciers and Ice cap meltwater contribution areas, from Jacob et al Nature paper, 2012
Oceans are
Warming: Expandin
g & Melting
ice
Warm Water
Expands in the oceanMelting
polar Ice from warm
ocean and air is
adding to the ocean
Atmosphere is
warming: Melting polar Ice
Does Melting Sea Ice
Contribute to Sea Level?
What makes sea
level change?
Is Greenland’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
Is There A Critical Tipping Point?
What Can I Do?
How Fast Can Sea
Level Change?How Much
Ice Is There At the Poles?
Is Antarctica’
s Ice Sheets
Changing Now?
EXPLORING SEA LEVEL
RISE
Sea level rise contributions from the Ice Sheets. Antarctica (AIS-blue). Greenland (GrIS-green). Red is the sum. Dashed lines outline uncertainty.
YEARLY POLAR MELTWATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL
RECORD: HOW MUCH WATER IS BEING ADDED TO THE OCEANS FROM POLAR GLACIERS?
http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10712-011-9137-z.pdf
1989-2009
Cu
mu
lati
ve S
LR
(m
m)
14
•For every degree the climate warms, we are likely to lock in at least 6 feet of sea level rise—obviously that happens over time, as the melting global ice sheets that will contribute most to the rising oceans are somewhat delayed in responding.
•Looking at a 4˚ C rise in temperature, something which increasingly looks certain (due to collective inaction to constrain greenhouse gas emissions and a far too-slow effort to transition off fossil fuels), the study found that, over the next two millennia, the melting Antarctic ice sheet will contribute 50 percent of the sea level's rise, melting Greenland will contribute 25 percent, thermal expansion of the oceans contributes 20 percent and melting glaciers account for the remaining 5 percent.
Previous research, also coming from the Potsdam Institute, found that if temperatures rise continues past 2˚ C, there's a greater than 50 percent chance that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, causing over 20 feet of sea level rise, over the next 300-1,000 years. Melting in Antarctica contributes less than 10 percent to sea level rise today. The seemingly low amount that glaciers will contribute can be attributed to the study's long-term view of sea level rise – by the time Antarctica is contributing to the sea, half of the world's glaciers will have already melted back to their minimum level.
15
1.1M = 1100mm1100 mm / 108 (back to 1992) years =
10.1851852 mm/yr
Do a little math…