Visualizing Sea Level Rise:Exploring Sea Level Rise

with FieldScope

A University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Appalachian Lab and National Geographic Society project

in collaboration with NOAA BWET program, MD Department of Natural Resources, DE and MD National Estuarine Research

Reserve, and University of Virginia Blandy Experimental Farm

Decrease in sea ice –

decrease in plankton –

decrease in krill- decrease in penguins, albatrosses, seals & whales.

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MEES 698Y Science for Environment Management Spring 2013

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Bringing the contributions to sea-level rise together

MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

Sea-level rise will not stop in 2100

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Schaeffer et al. 2012 Nature Climate Change 2: 867.

MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

ending all emissions in 2016

stabilizing at 2ºC

Multiple implications of sea-level rise

Inundation & shoreline erosion

Increase base of storm surge

Overwhelming ability of tidal wetlands to aggrade & migrate

Salt-water intrusion in estuaries

Salinization of ag. soils Salinization of ground

water Social demand for

protection & resistance to adaptation

7MADE CLEAR Climate Science Academy 2013

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NOAA Sea Level Online Website: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml

Lesson 1 – Current SLR

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Expanding

ocean volume

Melting glaciers

Melting ice fields

in Greenlan

d

Melting ice fields

in Antarctic

a

Changing ocean currents

Sinking land

Predicted

relative SLR from

1993 to 2100

0.24 m 0.13 m 0.10 m 0.30 m 0.17 m 0.15 m 1.1 m

Lesson 1 – Predicted SLR

Ocean Expansion (0-700m of depth)

EXPLORING SEA LEVEL

RISE

RECORD: HOW MUCH HAS THE OCEAN WARMED & EXPANDED 1960-2007?

Oceans are

Warming: Expandin

g & Melting

ice

Warm Water

Expands in the oceanMelting

polar Ice from warm

ocean and air is

adding to the ocean

Atmosphere is

warming: Melting polar Ice

Does Melting Sea Ice

Contribute to Sea Level?

What makes sea

level change?

Is Greenland’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

Is There A Critical Tipping Point?

What Can I Do?

How Fast Can Sea

Level Change?How Much

Ice Is There At the Poles?

Is Antarctica’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_drives_longer.html

*Thermosteric is change in sea surface height from expansion/contraction from temperature change

EXPLORING SEA LEVEL

RISE

HOW MUCH MORE WATER IS IN THE OCEAN FROM MELTING POLAR GLACIERS?

MELTWATER CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL

Oceans are

Warming: Expandin

g & Melting

ice

Warm Water

Expands in the oceanMelting

polar Ice from warm

ocean and air is

adding to the ocean

Atmosphere is

warming: Melting polar Ice

Does Melting Sea Ice

Contribute to Sea Level?

What makes sea

level change?

Is Greenland’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

Is There A Critical Tipping Point?

What Can I Do?

How Fast Can Sea

Level Change?How Much

Ice Is There At the Poles?

Is Antarctica’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

‘Science Fact’: Melting ice from the Earth’s glaciers adds to the oceans causing sea level to rise.

Glaciers and Ice cap meltwater contribution areas, from Jacob et al Nature paper, 2012

Oceans are

Warming: Expandin

g & Melting

ice

Warm Water

Expands in the oceanMelting

polar Ice from warm

ocean and air is

adding to the ocean

Atmosphere is

warming: Melting polar Ice

Does Melting Sea Ice

Contribute to Sea Level?

What makes sea

level change?

Is Greenland’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

Is There A Critical Tipping Point?

What Can I Do?

How Fast Can Sea

Level Change?How Much

Ice Is There At the Poles?

Is Antarctica’

s Ice Sheets

Changing Now?

EXPLORING SEA LEVEL

RISE

Sea level rise contributions from the Ice Sheets. Antarctica (AIS-blue). Greenland (GrIS-green). Red is the sum. Dashed lines outline uncertainty.

YEARLY POLAR MELTWATER CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL

RECORD: HOW MUCH WATER IS BEING ADDED TO THE OCEANS FROM POLAR GLACIERS?

http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10712-011-9137-z.pdf

1989-2009

Cu

mu

lati

ve S

LR

(m

m)

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•For every degree the climate warms, we are likely to lock in at least 6 feet of sea level rise—obviously that happens over time, as the melting global ice sheets that will contribute most to the rising oceans are somewhat delayed in responding. 

•Looking at a 4˚ C rise in temperature, something which increasingly looks certain (due to collective inaction to constrain greenhouse gas emissions and a far too-slow effort to transition off fossil fuels), the study found that, over the next two millennia, the melting Antarctic ice sheet will contribute 50 percent of the sea level's rise, melting Greenland will contribute 25 percent, thermal expansion of the oceans contributes 20 percent and melting glaciers account for the remaining 5 percent.

Previous research, also coming from the Potsdam Institute, found that if temperatures rise continues past 2˚ C, there's a greater than 50 percent chance that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, causing over 20 feet of sea level rise, over the next 300-1,000 years. Melting in Antarctica contributes less than 10 percent to sea level rise today. The seemingly low amount that glaciers will contribute can be attributed to the study's long-term view of sea level rise – by the time Antarctica is contributing to the sea, half of the world's glaciers will have already melted back to their minimum level. 

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1.1M = 1100mm1100 mm / 108 (back to 1992) years =

10.1851852 mm/yr

Do a little math…