Post on 12-Jul-2020
PEV WORLD MARKET
Tom Turrentine PH&EV Research Center Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis Philadelphia, November 2017
The total number of PEVs in the world at end of 2017 will likely exceed 3 million (out of 1 billion vehicles) & 1 million in
sales out of 88 million (about 100,000 per month) 2017
forecast
2017 forecast
1 % of world LDV annual sales
• Batteries: $$$, reliability, performance • Policy: regulation, financial, other • PEV Rollout - especially SUV vs Sedans • BEVs vs PHEVs (eVMT) • Infrastructure rollout • Grid integration & renewables • Citizen, science & consumer education
Market variables:
2025
Early core market: 6-15%
2020
3-5% of market
1st generation policy, vehicles, “innovators” & infrastructure 200,000 PEVs 20-30 models
2010 2015
1-2%
2nd generation 200 mile batteries,
automated vehicles,
“followers” 4-500,000
PEVs 30-100 models
3rd generation: vehicles, “core
market” 6-800,000
PEVS
A plausible California scenario 4th generation 3 - 4
million??? Curve based on rollout of HEVs in Japan & California 1997-2015 & rules
Main market 15-25%
2030 California
2025 ZEV goal = 15% / 1.2-5 million BEVS, FCV & PHEVs
700 300 200 150 Lithium pack prices per kWh
2020 2010
2015
“Innovators”
2nd generation 3-5% of market,
500,000 new PEVs
“Early adopters” also called
“Fast Followers”
“Innovators 2nd, 3rd PEV purchases”
This model is made more complex by the used PEV market, being studied by Gil Tal.
1st generation 1- 3 % of market,
200,000 PEVs
150,000 PEV innovator
households
Used PEVs
And a growing used PEV market
Many PEV sales forecasts getting optimistic about PEV fleet & sales millions
Tom estimates red line would be 10 % of world market in
2020 (100 million LDVs)
Tom guesses 600 million might be 40 %
of world market in 2040 (150 million LDVs ?)
Policy goals shaping market & commercialization of PEVs
• ZEV programs: California, Section 177 States (Oregon, Northeast), Quebec, expanding to China & EU
• National goals to eliminate fossil fueled vehicle sales: (12 nations)
– 2025: Norway,
– 2030: India, Sweden, Netherlands (maybe China)
– 2040: UK “clean air,” France “carbon” (all policy steps not yet developed)
• Cities: Intentions to ban diesel & internal combustion
– Several Chinese cities, Brazil, Stuttgart, Munich, London, Paris, Mexico
Multiple studies point to “pack” prices under $200 per kWh early
next decade 60 kWh pack (Bolt or Tesla 3)
would be around $10,000
• Tesla says cells $190 kWh in 2016 & $100 in 2020
• GM said it paid $145 per kWh “cell” for 2017 Bolt
Bloomberg “cells” & “packs”
DOE – “cell price”
$ per kWh $ per kWh
$ per kWh
McKinsey – “pack price”
A few locations “beachhead markets” are in double digits: San Jose, California; Shanghai, Beijing China
Norway passed 50% in Sept., Sweden reached 5%.
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
YR 2012 YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015 YR 2016
Global PEV Sales by Country New Zealand
Czech Republic
Romania
Slovenia
Poland
Estonia
Ukraine
Ireland
Australia
Iceland
Finland
Portugal
Austria
Denmark
Italy
Spain
Switzerland
Belguim
Canada
Sweden
Germany
France
Netherlands
Norway
Japan
USA
China
USA
China
Japan
Norway
Netherlands
France
There was 37% PEV market growth worldwide in 2016 Europe had 33,000 sales in Sept.
350
300
-250 I/) -0 c: co I/) ::J 0 200 .c: I--I/) (J)
~ 150 (J)
0 .c: (J)
> 100
50
0
316.8
207.0
2015 2016
China
Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type
209.3
188.3
159.6
114.0
22.8 24.3
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
Europe United States Japan
• PHEV
• EV
6.9 10.3
2015 2016
Canada
China has over 1 million PEVs & 50% of world PEV sales (Total vehicle sales around 23 million)
2 % of total sales
59,000 in Sept 2017- 81% growth over past Sept.
German car market responding to incentives and new models
(June & July around 4000)
1 % of new car sales
• Just 14 urban markets account for a third of global electric vehicle sales – The sales leaders have 10,000 to 40,000 new electric vehicle sales per year – The sales share leaders have electric vehicle shares of 10-27% of new vehicle sales
World electric vehicle capitals source ICCT
24 Analyzed at metro area level, 2015. Source: Hall, D., Moultak, M., Lutsey, N. (2017). Electric vehicle capitals of the world: Demonstrating the path to electric drive. http://www.theicct.org/EV-capitals-of-the-world
6 cities near or above 10% of sales in 2016
Market is increasingly diversified, with new competition each quarter
Global Plug-in Volume 2017 Q1 by Make
Tesla
BMW Group
Nissan
BAIC
VWGroup
TMC
GM
Renault
BYD
Daimler
Mitsubishi
SAIC
Zhidou
Hyundai- Kia
Ford
Zotye
JMC
Volvo
Geely
Kandi
Dongfeng
JAC
PSA
FCA
Changan
Other (40)
0 5
• EV 10
• PHEV 15
EV VOLUMES.COM
'OOOs 01 -17 +/-vs
20 25 Share CV2016
13,9% +4,0 %
9,3% +1,7 %
8,8% +1,5%
6,9% +0,9%
6,3% -1,9%
5,5% +5, 1 o/o 5,3% +1, 1 %
5,2% +1,7%
4,8% -8,4%
3,5% +0,8%
3,5% -0,3%
3,4% +0,9%
3,0% +0,4%
2,9% +0,8%
2,6% -0,6%
2,5% -2,2%
2,5% +0,5%
2, 1 o/o -0,2%
1 ,0% -1,2%
1 ,0% -0,5%
1 ,0% +0,3%
0,8% -1,5%
0,8% +O, 1 o/o
0,8% +0,3%
0,7% +O, 1 o/o
1 ,8% -3, 1 o/o
2016 PEV Sales Top 10 Cities in China: BEVs only in Beijing & registration restrictions are important
2016 PEV
Sales BEV
Manufacturer PHEV
Manufacturer
Beijing 63000 BAIC
Shanghai 41483 SAIC
Qingdao 27198
Shenzhen 25131 BYD BYD
Tianjin 21611
Taiyuan 17854
Guangzhou 16506 GAC
Hangzhou 15033 Geely, Zotye
Hefei 7805 JAC
Wuhu 7413 Chery
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
BEV PHEV
City with plate restriction
Data Source: WAYS, 2017 ww.way-s.cn
* *
*
* * * *
Cumulative USA & California PEVs June 2017
California Total PEV = 308,174
USA Total PEV= 647, 956 June sales = 16, 591 YTD sales = 86,934
2017 2015 2016 2014 2013 2012 2011
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
200,000
100,000
300,000
USA Sales could hit 200,000 by end of year; Tesla 3 and next Nissan Leaf should be significant additions (source Inside Evs)
1 % of US market Sept 17 sales
21,000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Q1-
13Q
2-13
Q3-
13Q
4-13
Q!-
14Q
2-14
Q3-
14Q
4_14
Q1-
15Q
2-15
Q3-
15Q
4-15
Q1-
16Q
2-16
Q3-
16
Q4-
16
Q1-
17*
Chart Title
GA Rest UT CO CT VT OR WA HI DC CA
California almost 5% in this quarter, 8 states are at 1-2%, the rest of US at about .5%
%
Georgia
Wash. DC
Hawaii
5%
3%
Connecticut
California
Oregon
Vermont
Washington
Colorado Utah
Rest of USA
2%
1%
4%
More regional issues: • Electricity prices • Future
emissions • Vehicles mix:
pick-ups, etc… • Time of day: for
solar & wind. • Seasons: heat,
cool, de-humidify vehicle
Where in the US “today” do PEVs create the least greenhouse gases per mile (Union of Concern Scientists 2014 grid data)
MPGghg) for BEVs: Green = 1000-5100 Yellow = 100-999 Blue = 52-99 Pink = 29-51 Gray = no data
Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle University of Michigan, Sustainable Worldwide Transportation
MPG carbon equivalent for BEVs around the world
California PEV sales around 5%: 1st quarter 2017 - source CNCDA
4.8 6.1
6.8 6.3 5.8 4.7
0.5
1 1.2 1.6
1.4
1.7 0.5
0.4
1.3 1.6 1.7
1.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20 17 YTD
HEV
BEV
PHEV
%
4.4 %
2.7%
2.1%
1st quarter 2017
EU Policy shapes PHEV vs BEV; supply of PHEVs has gone up (source evVolumes)
% market growth in 2016
PHEVs BEVs
Austria is “not” rewarding PHEVs,
Norway is recently rewarding PHEVs
Netherlands has shifted policy
emphasis to BEVs
Number of models in PEV market closely linked to sales growth- thru Q-1 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Thou
sand
s
USA
USA USA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Netherlands
Netherlands Netherlands
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Thou
sand
s
Germany
Germany Germany
0510152025303540
02468
10121416
Thou
sand
s
Norway
Norway Norway
While the current offerings emphasizes sedans, the shift in next 3-4 years is to SUV/Crossover & should expand sales
“Can you name a BEV that is being sold in the US?”
A major barrier to rapid growth is lack of awareness, knowledge and experience with PEVs
Surveys in 2014-2017 California Car Buyers (n=1600) Source:, K.Kurani UC Davis
Challenges & Opportunities • Policy:
– durable policy systems (till market reaches 15% / battery prices hit $100 kWh) • Battery prices:
– Expensive, but price dropping faster than expected leading to bigger batteries • PEV rollout:
– Automakers are developing a wider range of vehicle designs & bigger batteries – > 40 “Makes & models” per market (but main market has hundreds of designs)
• Charging: – Complex system: home, work, corridors, destinations including low to very high
powered “plugs” (3 – 350 kWh) – Difficult to make money (especially with “free” charging), need to engage
public utilities • Renewable energy: consistent progress in last decade • Early market: Most buyers uninformed
– First buyers “motivated” to inform rest of market – Public fleets and taxis can inform
• Need to motivate “retail” sector (dealers, sales staff)
Dr. Tom Turrentine, Director Dr. Gil Tal, Research Director, PEV Markets, Travel Behavior Dahlia Garas, Program Director Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer Studies Dr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations and Market Models Dr. Scott Hardman, Global Policy, Europe PEV Markets Dr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback Systems 20+ affiliated Graduate and Undergraduate Students 4 Research Staff, programmers
Thank you